Showing posts with label 2015 NBA draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2015 NBA draft. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

2016 NBA Draft: Mock Draft

I have no sources or inside information, just some (kinda) educated speculation:

01. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons, G/F LSU (6-10, 240) Age: 19
The Sixers are taking Simmons, that is 99% of a lock at this point, the only intrigue left is what Philadelphia does with their logjam of big men and if they acquire another lottery pick.  

02. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Ingram, SF Duke (6-9, 196) Age: 18
Ingram is basically a lock here as well, though they have been making noise looking at some other players, I think that is just due diligence in case some team blows away with an offer for the #2 overall pick.

03. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn): Jaylen Brown, SF/PF California (6-7, 223) Age: 19
I still don't think the Celtics are taking Dragan Bender, and will most likely trade this pick, but if they use it they will try to sell that they are taking a star, but go with a player like Jaylen Brown, with a higher floor than say Marquese Chriss, but also has some upside as well.

04. Phoenix Suns: Marquese Chriss, PF Washington (6-10, 233) Age: 18
Dragan Bender would literally be the perfect fit for the Suns, but I am not sure Robert Sarver will stand for a top 5 pick that won't player right away. Ironically, Chriss isn't going to help much starting out either and has a significantly higher bust factor and not any more upside.

05. Minnesota Timberwolves: Kris Dunn, PG Providence (6-4, 205) Age: 22
I don't know if Ricky Rubio gets traded (it would be a mistake, in my opinion) but Dunn is the type of player that can play a role for Minnesota early on, especially playing with a guard like Zach LaVine. Most importantly, Dunn can defend his tail off, which will appeal to Tom Thibodeau.

06. New Orleans Pelicans: Jamal Murray, SG Kentucky (6-4, 207) Age: 19
The Pelicans need to find more scoring and shot creation, which in theory is what Murray provides. Especially with Eric Gordon most likely departing in free agency, Murray could fill a similar role as a shooter and sometimes creator,

07. Denver Nuggets (from New York): Dragan Bender, PF Maccabi Tel Aviv (7-1, 225) Age: 18
This is obviously a no-brainer for Denver, who not only could really use a player like Bender but also have patience with and an affinity for International prospects.

08. Sacramento Kings: Buddy Hield, SG Oklahoma (6-5, 212) Age: 22
This is another no-brainer. There are major questions about just how good Hield can be in the NBA, but he is unlikely to bust completely and is a high character player that can help transform the Kings dysfunction. There are likely to be better players drafted after Hield, but with Sacramento I get swinging for a double, at this point they just need talent.

09. Toronto Raptors (from Denver): Jakob Poeltl, C Utah (7-1, 239) Age: 20
With Bismack Biyombo departing, Toronto can look to beef up their big man depth and draft a solid, well-rounded big man in Poeltl, though the Raptors are talented enough to go in pretty much any direction, minus point guard most likely.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Dejounte Murray, PG Washington (6-5, 170) Age: 19
Last year the Bucks drafted Rashad Vaughn way earlier than expected and you could defintely see them do that again with Murray, a raw prospect with upside but a looooong way to go,

11. Orlando Magic: Deyonta Davis, PF/C Michigan State (6-11, 237) Age: 19
Point guard is the main need for Orlando, but they don't seem to think so after they parted ways with their coach partially over Elfrid Payton. Davis has upside and a solid floor, but most of all he projects to compliment Orlando's current big men. 

12. Atlanta Hawks (from Utah): Domantas Sabonis, PF/C Gonzaga (6-11, 231) Age: 20
After trading Jeff Teague for this pick, the Hawks (who may yet trade up further) can look to address their need for big man depth. The Hawks were really bad on the glass last season, an area Sabonis excels at. Even better his high IQ and skill fits the Hawks system.

13. Phoenix Suns (from Washington): Timothe Luwawu, SF Mega Leks (6-7, 205) Age: 21
After power forward, a low-usage defensive wing/shooting wing is the Suns biggest need, so it would not be a shock for them to use one of their two lottery picks on a player like Timothe Luwawu.

14. Chicago Bulls: Wade Baldwin IV, PG Vanderbilt (6-4, 202) Age: 20
The Bulls finally pulled the plug on Derrick Rose and now have a Jerian Grant/Jose Calderon combo at point guard. While Grant has some value (his fit with Fred Hoiberg is as good as his fit in the triangle was bad) but neither he nor Calderon has the upside of Wade Baldwin, who would fit well with Jimmy Butler.

15. Denver Nuggets (from Houston): Henry Ellenson, PF/C Marquette (7-0, 242) Age: 19
If Dragan Bender isn't able to come over and play right away, Denver could look to get a more immediate contributor in Ellenson or the like.

16. Boston Celtics (from Dallas): Malachi Richardson, SG Syracuse (6-6, 200) Age: 20 
Someone is taking Richardson in the first round, likely in the top 20 and Boston (or whomever they trade with) seem like as likely a destination as any.

17. Memphis Grizzlies: Taurean Prince, SF/PF Baylor (6-8, 220) Age: 21
The Grizzlies are forever in a search for shooting and have built their team around tough defense in recent times. Prince projects to provide some of both.

18. Detroit Pistons: Denzel Valentine, SG Michigan State (6-6, 210) Age: 22
Valentine slides due to concerns about his knee. The local connection and Valentines fit in Stan Van Gundy's system make him too good to pass on.

19. Denver Nuggets (from Portland): Demetrius Jackson, PG Notre Dame (6-2, 194) Age: 21
Even with the strides that Emmanuel Mudiay took last season, the Nuggets still need to find him a back up and Jackson is great value here and an ideal fit as a backup point guard.

20. Brooklyn Nets (from Indiana): Tyler Ulis, PG Kentucky (5-10, 149) Age: 20
The Nets have the worst point guard situation in the league and desperately need something, anything there. Tyler Ulis is likely a backup but at least he can play point guard and has some tremendous intangibles.

21. Atlanta Hawks: Juan Hernangomez, PF Estudiantes (6-9, 220) Age: 20
With Paul Millsap entering the last year of his deal (most likely) and Al Horford a free agent to-be, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Hawks double on big men, especially if one with the potential of Hernangomez falling to them.

22. Sacramento Kings (from Charlotte): Malik Beasley, SG Florida State (6-5, 190) Age: 19
After trading Marco Bellineli to Charlotte for this pick, making there need for wings that can shoot and defend even more dire.

23. Boston Celtics: Damian Jones, C Vanderbilt (7-0, 244) Age: 20
Again, who knows if the Celtics actually use this pick but if they do, an athletic big man like Jones makes sense because he is significantly more physically talented than the rest of his team.

24. Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami): Patrick McCaw, SG UNLV (6-7, 185) Age: 20
The Sixers need wings that can shoot and defend, which is what McCaw projects to do, with some real upside as well.

25. Los Angeles Clippers: Malcolm Brogdon, SG Virginia (6-5, 223) Age: 23
Does it really matter who the Clippers draft here? He'll never play for Doc Rivers anyway. Still, if he did get to okay Malcolm Brogdon could help the Clippers in the backcourt with shooting, defense, and passing.

26. Philadelphia 76ers (from Oklahoma City): Furkan Korkmaz, SG Anadolu Efes (6-7, 185) Age: 18
The Sixers are unlikely to bring in three rookies from this draft, so unless they trade the pick they will likely look to stash an international. Korkmaz could go much higher in the draft, but also might fall do to the rise of other prospects.

27. Toronto Raptors: Ante Zizc, C Cibona Zagreb (7-0, 249) Age: 19
Zizic is another prospect but could go higher but also might fall. He has been extremely productive in Europe at a young age and has the skills and motor to be a backup center at least.

28. Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland): Ivica Zubac, C Mega Leks (7-1, 265) Age: 19
Yet another international guy that could go higher, Zubax is huge and has some idea what he is doing, which is more rare than you might think.

29. San Antonio Spurs: Cheick Diallo, C Kansas (6-9, 219) Age: 19
The Spurs' lack of athleticism was glaring in their playoff series loss to the Thunder, they need to find some big bodies that can move, especially as Tim Duncan's career comes to a close.

30. Golden State Warriors: DeAndre Bembry, SF Saint Joseph's (6-6, 207) Age: 21
The Warriors lack of depth was exposed somewhat against the Cavaliers, so they would be wise to continue to add and develop real contributors, not just projects or players who fall due to injury. DeAndre Bembry is a really good fit there with his offensive and defensive versatility.

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Saturday, July 4, 2015

2015 Draft Review: Dallas Mavericks

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Devin Harris/Raymond Felton
SG: Wes Matthews
SF: Chandler Parsons/Justin Anderson
PF: Dirk Nowitzki/Dwight Powell
C: DeAndre Jordan

2015 Free Agents
C Bernard James (RFA)
F Al-Farouq Aminu
G J.J. Barea 
C Tyson Chandler
G Monta Ellis
SF Richard Jefferson
PG Rajon Rondo
C Greg Smith
PF Amar'e Stoudemire
F Charlie Villanueva

What They Did On Draft Night 
Drafted Virginia forward Justin Anderson 21st overall
The Mavericks rarely use their draft picks and literally haven't developed any of them in recent years, so I wouldn't get my hopes too high that Justin Anderson is on the Mavericks at the end of his rookie contract, but that doesn't mean he can't have a successful NBA career. If Anderson isn't traded, he could be an important part of the Mavericks rotation soon because Dallas has a ton invested in their starting lineup, but little depth elsewhere. Anderson is also the type of player Dallas needs, a strong defensive-minded NBA athlete that can guard multiple positions and cover for some of their less effective defensive players. Anderson can play shooting guard, wing, and power forward so he can fill in for either Dirk Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons, or Wes Matthews. That matters because Dirk is 37 and both Parsons and Matthews are coming off of serious injuries. Where Anderson will really become valuable for Dallas is if his shooting last season was not a fluke and he can make threes at an above-average rate. Pick-and-rolls/pops with DeAndre Jordan and Dirk respectively will be a major part of the Mavs offense, so the spacing Anderson can give will give those players some extra room to operate.

Drafted Indian center Satnam Singh Bhamara 52nd overall
While there are definitely some ulterior motives in the drafting of Bhamara, the first Indian player to ever be drafted, the Mavericks are committed to develop him in the D-League. A 7-2, 290 pound nineteen year-old, Singh needs to first improve his body to increase mobility and vertical explosiveness, plodding centers are a dying breed in the NBA, then it is a matter of gaining skills. Bhamara is huge, but so is Roy Hibbert, and that gains players nothing without footwork, touch, body positioning, and vertical force. Satnam pushed around much smaller players in high school, something that isn't going to serve him much at the next level.

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2015 Draft Review: Toronto Raptors

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Kyle Lowry/Delon Wright
SG: DeMar DeRozan/Terrence Ross/Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll/Bruno Caboclo
PF: Patrick Patterson/James Johnson
C: Jonas Valenciunas/Lucas Nogueira

2015 Free Agents
SF Landry Fields
PF Tyler Hansbrough
C Chuck Hayes
PF Amir Johnson
C Greg Steimsma 
G Lou Williams

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Utah point guard Delon Wright 20th Overall
After trading Greivis Vasquez, the Raptors needed a backup point guard and had the chance to select one that complimented Kyle Lowry better while also improving the team's biggest weakness. Delon Wright can legitimately play point guard, but has the size to defend wings meaning he can play alongside Lowry as well, relieving some of Toronto's reliance on his playmaking and hopefully keeping him from wearing down. Wright is also an excellent defender, a huge upgrade over what Vasquez offered on that end, that should help improve the Raptor's defense when he is on the floor. Wright is 23, so basically a finished product, but ready to play basically right away and could form a nice second unit backcourt combo with Terrence Ross, who compliments Wright's one big weakness: shooting.

Traded Greivis Vasquez to Milwaukee for Norman Powell and a 2016 conditional first-round pick
Getting a first round pick of any kind for a backup on an expiring deal is a good move, especially when you have a ready made replacement that fits you team better available to you in the draft. Toronto also got back the draft rights to the 46th pick, which the used on Norman Powell. The idea behind drafting Powell is similar to that of Wright: find more creators that can get to the rim and take some pressure off of Kyle Lowry. Powell also somewhat duplicates what Lou Williams brought to the team, so if he departs in free agency, Toronto at least has a creative scorer type to try as a potential replacement.

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2015 Draft Review: Washington Wizards

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: John Wall/Ramon Sessions
SG: Bradley Beal/Martell Webster
SF: Otto Porter Jr./Jared Dudley/Kelly Oubre
PF: Nene/Kris Humphries/DeJuan Blair/Aaron White
C: Marcin Gortat

2015 Free Agents
SF Rasual Butler
PG Will Bynum
PF Drew Gooden
F Paul Pierce (player option)
C Kevin Seraphin
G Garrett Temple (player option)

What a They Did On Draft Night 
Traded up to Draft Kansas wing Kelly Oubre 15th overall
The Wizards traded some second rounders to move up four spots and draft a talented project that could develop into a tremendous fit with their core. Oubre is an excellent physical specimen with explosiveness in every direction and a 7-2 wingspan. He isn't devoid of skill either, Oubre shoots well and can attack in line drives. Barring a flame-out, Oubre should develop into at least a very good 3-and-D guy with the chance for more as he learns the game, develops a mid-range game and gets a little more wiggle with his drives. It may take a year or two, but Oubre could really be a great fit with John Wall: spacing the floor, running in transition, and switching defensively. He might not be ready for a big role from day one, but if the Wizards are patient, the might have very valuable contributor.

Drafted Iowa forward Aaron White 49th overall
White is another potentially excellent fit with the Wizards who has a good chance to make the roster and even get some playing time eventually. White's best attributes are running the floor and finishing at the rim, but Jan Vesely he is not. White shot 36% from three last season (albiet on a limited number of attempts) and 82% from the line, hinting at some stretch-four potential. It's not hard to see how a power forward that is great in transition and can shoot fits with the Wizards. Defense is more of a question, but White moves well and could be solid defending perimeter based bigs, but might struggle against physical post players.

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2015 Draft Review: Milwaukee Bucks

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Michael Carter-Williams/Greivis Vasquez/Tyler Ennis
SG: Khris Middleton/O.J. Mayo/Jerryd Bayless/Rashad Vaughn
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo/Damien Ingles
PF: Jabari Parker/Johnny O'Bryant III
C: Greg Monroe/Zaza Pachulia/John Henson/Miles Plumlee

What They Did On Draft Night 
Drafted UNLV shooting guard Rashad Vaughn 17th overall
Milwaukee was clearly looking towards next summer, when O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless come off the books, with their selection of Vaughn, who does one thing well, and that is create shots for himself. Vaughn is just 18, so he can grow and develop so much more, but right now he is a questionable shot taker who is able to make said shots at an above-average rate. He isn't a great athlete so the worry is that those shots will be harder to create and to make once bigger, stronger, longer, more athletic defenses get the idea you aren't going to pass much. This is especially worrisome in Milwaukee, which has a ton of talent players, but not ones that are exactly bursting with shooting ability. That's going to close down the space even more. Vaughn has a lot of ability, but he is going to have to evolve into a better decision-maker and more team-oriented player in the NBA.

Traded the 46th pick and a conditional 2016 first round pick to Toronto for Greivis Vasquez
I like Vasquez as a player and he fills a need for the Bucks, but with just one year left on his deal, a first round pick is an overpay. The pick comes from the Clippers and will likely be in the bottom third of the draft, but a one year rental of a career backup with some significant flaws in his game is a lot. Milwaukee should have been able to get more, if they were patient. That aside, Vasquez is a good fit because he can really shoot (and Michael Carter-Williams really can't) while also distributing well and scoring with a crafty midrange game, just don't ask him to score at the rim. His biggest flaw, defense, will be somewhat masked by the Bucks system and versatile, rangy defenders. Honestly, unless Carter-Williams really takes a big step forward, I wouldn't be surprised if Vasquez was finishing most games by seasons end, if not starting them.

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2015 Draft Review: Boston Celtics

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Marcus Smart/Isaiah Thomas/Terry Rozier/Phil Pressey/Marcus Thornton
SG: Avery Bradley/R.J. Hunter/James Young/Chris Babb
SF: Jae Crowder/Evan Turner/Gerald Wallace
PF: Amir Johnson/Kelly Olynyk/Jonas Jerebko
C:  Tyler Zeller/Jared Sullinger/Jordan Mickey

2015 Free Agents
F Luigi Datome (RFA)
PF Brandon Bass


What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Louisville point guard Terry Rozier 16th overall
I understand what Danny Ainge and Boston are doing, trying to collect assets and backup plans for those assets, but I think drafting Terry Rozier was a step too far, especially considering he wasn't remotely the best prospect available. Adding Rozier and later Marcus Thornton gives the Celtics six guards 6-4 or shorter, none of which is a real, true NBA level point guard. They are gritty, but half can't shoot and the other half can't distribute or finish. Rozier is a solid backup point guard prospect in certain situations because he can pressure the ball and push the tempo in transition. However, he is limited distributing, struggles shooting, and doesn't finish well, so he fits right in with Boston's backcourt. What he does well is good enough to make him a solid backup NBA player, but you want more than that from a mid-first round pick, especially when there were potentially above-average NBA starters available at the sixteenth pick. Luckily (and luck is what it was) Boston was able to get good value that also fit their needs later on in the draft.

Drafted Georgia State shooting guard R.J. Hunter 28th overall
The opposite of Rozier, Hunter is exactly what Boston's offense needs: shooting and size. Hunter's ability to make threes at a high rate will be crucial to Boston's offense, which relies on Smart and Isaiah Thomas' dribble drives and pick-and-roll with Tyler Zeller. Hunter's ability will spread out the defense, forcing them to avoid overcommiting with help defense or be burned from three. Hunter isn't one dimensional either, he can handle the ball a little, and even ran pick-and-roll some last season. Defense may be a little bit more of a project, Hunter needs to get stronger and improve his technique, but Boston has some strong perimeter defenders to help cover for him was he develops on that end.

Drafted LSU power forward Jordan Mickey 33rd overall
The Celtics were woeful protecting the rim last season, so clearly a priority had to be put on finding some shot-blockers. The Celtics signing Amir Johnson and drafting Jordan Mickey was a good start. Mickey is undersized but has long arms and very good bounce, he had good instincts and is very mobile, meaning in time he should be good guarding both the rim and on the perimeter. My one concern with Mickey's defensive profile is that I am not sure he can guard centers or bigger power forwards, he might be overwhelmed unless he gains more lower body strength, while alsobeing susceptible to just getting shot over the top of occasionally. Mickey's role in Boston is unclear due to all the so-so pieces they have, but he and Johnson are easily their best interior defenders and Mickey is good enough around the basket and facing up a little that he won't hurt the offense.

Drafted William & Mary point guard Marcus Thornton 45th overall
Another small guard for Boston, at least Marcus Thornton can shoot. He is a two guard in the body of a point guard that can really score when given the opportunity, but I am not sure what else he brings to the table. Due to the glut of guards on Boston's roster, Thornton faces an uphill battle making the team, but should thrive in the D-League and be available for a call up when one is needed.

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2015 Draft Review: Brooklyn Nets

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Deron Williams/Jarrett Jack/Steve Blake/Shane Larkin
SG: Joe Johnson/Markel Brown
SF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson/Bojan Bogdanovic/Sergey Karasev/Earl Clark
PF: Thaddeus Young/Thomas Robinson/Chris McCullough
C: Brook Lopez/Cory Jefferson

2015 Free Agents
C Jerome Jordan (RFA)
PF Mirza Teletovic (RFA)
SG Alan Anderson (player option)

What They Did On Draft Night
Traded Mason Plumlee and the 41st pick to Portland for Steve Blake and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
The Nets began their offseason by clearing up their awkward frontcourt, where Mason Plumlee was probably too good to be a backup but couldn't play alongside Brook Lopez. Not long ago, Plumlee was basically untouchable in Brooklyn's eyes, but his value fell both due to a dip in play and a lack longterm role on the team. Despite being a twenty-third pick, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has a really good chance of sticking in the league because he is such am excellent perimeter defender and does so many things well offensively, even if he can't shoot with range. Hollis-Jefferson landed in a perfect spot because Nets coach Lionel Hollins, who coached Tony Allen in Memphis to three All-Defense teams, has experience using great defensive players with limited range. Plus, Hollis-Jefferson is easier to hide offensively than Allen because he can play power forward. Assuming the Nets don't sign another wing, Brooklyn will have a promising young pair of wings that compliment each other well: Hollis-Jefferson and the more offensively-minded Bojan Bogdanovic.

Drafted Syracuse power forward Chris McCullough 29th overall
The Nets, who are picking 29th because Atlanta had the right to swap picks via the Joe Johnson trade, got a lottery talent in Chris McCullough, but also a project coming off an ACL tear. It's not hard to see how McCullough fits in the modern NBA: he's mobile, excellent blocking shots, with an intriguing offensive game. Provided his knee is 100%, McCullough's first job is improving his 199 pound frame (which will be easier when not rehabbing) so he has the strength to be a good on-ball defender to go with help defense. McCullough's best consistent offensive skill is smooth, slippery athletic ability diving to the basket in pick-and-roll but his jumpshot looks very good, it just needs become more consistent. I am surprised the Nets gave McCullough a guaranteed contract via the first round pick because of his knee injury, but if he pans out Brooklyn will have a valuable rotation piece that compliments their current frontcourt well because he can space the floor.

Drafted Argentinian wing Juan Pablo Vaulet 39th overall
A super draft sleeper, Juan Vaulet wasn't on many radars when he elected to remain in the draft, but a closer look at the 19 year-old revealed an athletic, physically gifted wing. Vaulet is most likely a stash, but with a potential shot at making the NBA because he has an NBA frame, long arms, and above-average athletic ability. Vaulet attacks with an excellent first step, and though he is still learning what to do when he beats his man, has shown playmaker potential. Vaulet's next step is improving his jumpshot, tightening his handle, and gaining strength. It might not be for another couple years, but Vaulet could definitely make the NBA.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Joe Johnson to Chicago for Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, and Kirk Hinrich

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Friday, July 3, 2015

2015 Draft Review: Oklahoma City Thunder

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Russell Westbrook/D.J. Augustin/Cameron Payne
SG: Anthony Morrow/Dion Waiters/
SF: Kevin Durant/Kyle Singler/Andre Roberson/Josh Huestis/Steve Novak
PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Perry Jones III
C: Steven Adams/Mitch McGary/Dakari Johnson

2015 Free Agents
C Enes Kanter (RFA)

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Murray State point guard Cameron Payne 14th overall
The Thunder seem to have their sights on Cameron Payne since early in the process, and the got their guy. It makes sense since backup point guard was one of the few longterm needs they had, with D.J. Augustin set to become a free agent next summer. This is an ideal situation for Payne because there won't be any pressure on him to come in and be the guy at point guard, instead he'll have a role and be able to play off of the Thunder's stars. Payne fits well in Oklahoma City because he is a good spot-up shooter that can play off the ball when sharing the backcourt with Russell Westbrook, but is also able to take the reins as the lead guard with Westbrook on the bench. It is also good for Payne that he won't have to shoulder starters minutes any time soon, he needs to get stronger before that will be a good idea.

Drafted Kentucky center Dakari Johnson 48th overall
Due to the incredible amount of talent on the Thunder's roster, Dakari Johnson is not likely to see a single minute of action this season, but will play in the D-League the whole year. Johnson is an old school, low-post center that plays very much below the rim. Johnson rebounds well and has great size, but will likely struggle on both ends of the court due to his well below average athletic ability. Playing in the D-League will benefit Johnson because he can learn to use his size to compensate in a low pressure environment.

What To Do Next
The Thunder want to bring back Enes Kanter and Kyle Singler, but besides that their roster is full so there isn't much else they can do unless they look for a trade involving D.J. Augustin in order to clear the way for Payne. Some of the periphery young talent on the roster could also be packaged with a pic or one of the Euro players Oklahoma City has the rights to in order to upgrade the shooting guard spot or clear room for a signing.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
D.J. Augustin to Washington for a second round pick

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2015 Draft Review: Phoenix Suns

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Eric Bledsoe/Archie Goodwin
SG: Brandon Knight/Devin Booker/Jerel McNeal
SF: P.J. Tucker/T.J. Warren/Danny Granger
PF: Markieff Morris
C: Tyson Chandler/Alex Len

2015 Free Agents
G Brandon Knight (RFA)
C Earl Barron
SG Gerald Green
SG Marcus Thornton
C Brandan Wright

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Kentucky shooting guard Devin Booker 13th overall
Phoenix was in the top third in 3-point field goal attempts last season, but the bottom third in 3-point percentage, so it isn't hard to see how an excellent three-point shooter fits in their offense. This is an ideal situation for Booker also, because Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe will handle almost all of the play-making duties, so the pressure won't be on him to be a shot-creator before he is ready. Booker is the youngest player in the draft, just 18, so there is some definite physical projection left in his body. Early on, Booker can be used at a spot-up shooter and work off of screens until his ball-handling ability increases to the point he can create a little more offense for himself. Booker is a very smart player that should learn the Suns system quickly and keep the ball moving when a shot isn't there.

What To Do Next?
The Suns have some cap space, so there room for a splash. They're meeting with LaMarcus Aldridge so that is obviously priority number one. There are contingency options if that doesn't work out. If Tobias Harris is done in Orlando, he could be a solution at both forward spots and would really flourish in a wide open offense. David West wouldn't be a huge splash, but he would help Phoenix short term, while benefiting himself with the Suns excellent training staff. A trade is also a possibility, targeting Danilo Gallinari perhaps.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Markieff Morris to Denver for Gallinari

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2015 Draft Review: Utah Jazz

2015-16 Depth Chart 
PG: Dante Exum/Trey Burke/Bryce Cotten
SG: Alec Burks/Rodney Hood/Olivier Hanlan
SF: Gordon Heyward/Elijah Millsap/Chris Johnson
PF: Derrick Favors/Trevor Booker/Grant Jerrett
C: Rudy Gobert/Trey Lyles/Jack Cooley

2015 Free Agents
SG Joe Ingles (RFA)
F Jeremy Evans

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Kentucky power forward Trey Lyles 11th overall
Considering how much depth and talent Utah has on its roster, taking a shot on a developmental player like Trey Lyes make sense. Lyles isn't a raw player at all, he just needs some time to iron-out the inconsistencies in his game, time he should be able to get in Utah. The Jazz said they envision Lyles as a stretch-four, which is ironic considering right now he is most effective posting-up, moving off the ball, and diving to the basket. Shooting is the lynchpin to Lyles game, his stroke looks very good, but the results were poor during his one season at Kentucky. In high school he shot very well up to 17-feet, but there is no guarantee that the shot develops, leaving the Jazz with a crafty but limited scorer without the athleticism to be an above-average defender. That's not a great return from a lottery pick. However, Utah has done well with all their young players in recent years and Lyles stroke is solid.

Drafted Boston College combo guard Olivier Hanlan 42nd overall
The Jazz went for a more ready-to-contribute option in the second round, drafting a combo guard that should be able to provide quality depth backing up both guard spots. Hanlan is a well-rounded, score-first offensive player that can distribute well enough to occasionally pass as a point guard. Utah's offense frequently plays through Gordon Heyward uses a lot of ball-movement, so Hanlan can fit in a point guard despite not being a pure distributor. Hanlan's ability to both drive and shoot is a nice option to have off the bench, someone who can get hot and carry a second unit every once in a while without completely being a gunner.

What To Do Next?
Utah probably has the deepest roster of promising young talent in the NBA, so there isn't a ton they really need to do this offseason. One area of need is a back-up small forward, preferably one that can shoot. Mike Dunleavy is still a great shooter and would inject a little age and experience to a very young core. Marco Belinelli would also be an ice fit with what Utah wants to do, as would Jared Dudley, who could also play some stretch-four.

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2015 Draft Review: Indiana Pacers

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: George Hill
SG: Monta Ellis/C.J. Miles/Joseph Young
SF: Paul George/Solomon Hill/Damjan Rudez
PF: ???
C: Roy Hibbert/Ian Mahinmi/Myles Turner

2015 Free Agents
F Chris Copeland (RFA)
C Shayne Whittington (RFA)
PF Lavoy Allen
PF Luis Scola
PG Donald Sloan
SG Rodney Stuckey
PG C.J. Watson
PF David West

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Texas center Myles Turner 11th overall
Five years ago, Indiana drafted an uber-talented prospect with some superficial, quantifiable concerns that caused him to be drafted tenth overall, nine picks after he should have been. Now Paul George is one of the best players in the NBA and Indiana looks poised to have similar success with Myles Turner. Roy Hibbert is on the way out by trade or free agency this summer or next, so center is a place of long-term need in Indiana. The Pacers want to play a faster, wide-open system of offense next season, which is something Turner should help them do, especially in comparison to Hibbert. Turner is knocked for his awkward running gait, but he isn't bad running the floor, and compared to slow-as-erosion Hibbert, Turner is Usain Boltian. This is upgrade in agility will also help Indiana's screen game be more effective because Turner, as the roll-man, will be more of a threat to score. Where Turner will really help Indiana open up their offense is with his ability to shoot, drawing the opposing center away from the basket and punishing smaller defenders that switch pick-and-pops by shooting right over them with an essentially unblockable jumper. Turner is a consistently good shooter from mid-range with no reason to suspect that within a year or two, he will be able to make threes. Defensively, Turner can't match peak-Hibbert level, but should be an above-average rim protector with more mobility defending on the perimeter. It may take a year or so for Turner to get acclimated to the league, he is just 19, but the reward of an above-average defensive center with floor spacing ability, is quite nice.

Drafted Oregon combo guard Joseph Young 43rd overall
Indiana's second round pick is more ready to contribute from day one, but obviously with less upside. Joseph Young is a pure-shooting combo guard that can really light up the scoreboard when he gets going. This kind of dynamic shooter/scorer is something that Indiana has lacked off their bench for a long time and should be a nice option when they need some spacing. The Pacers are a perfect landing spot for the 6-2 Young because of George Hill's ability to defend shooting guards, leaving the apposing point guard for Young to guard but without having to use him as a primary playmaker.

What To Do Next?
Trading Roy Hibbert for whatever they can get needs to be Indiana's top priority, not because Hibbert is a bad guy but because if he doesn't fit their current direction, giving him playing time will only serve to take minutes away from players that are their future and stall some the development of cohesiveness. Indiana simply cannot play the style they want with Hibbert on the floor. Another benefit to dealing Hibbert is hopefully creating some cap space to upgrade their roster. Stretching his contract is also another option. A power forward such as Darrell Arthur would be an option to fill that hole. Even though he is a restricted free agent, Tobias Harris could make a devastation interchangeable forward combination with Paul George. Another potential way to fill the hole at power forward is to move Paul George there and sign a wing to move into that spot.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Hibbert to Boston for a first round pick (or Gerald Wallace)
OR
Hibbert to Portland for Chris Kamen and Gerald Henderson

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2015 Draft Review: Miami Heat

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Mario Chalmers/Shabazz Napier
SG: Dwyane Wade/Josh Richardson/Tyler Johnson/Zoran Dragic
SF: Luol Deng/Justise Winslow/James Ennis/Bill Henry Walker
PF: Chris Bosh/Josh McRoberts/Udonis Haslam
C: Hassan Whiteside/Chris Anderson

2015 Free Agents
F Michael Beasley (team option)
PG Goran Dragic (player option)

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Duke wing Justise Winslow 10th overall
The Heat benefited from the draft falling favorably to them, getting a perfect fit for their culture and needs. Justise Winslow isn't likely to become the future star some suggest, but he can be a high-level role player on a championship level team. Early on in his career, Winslow will probably not be a consistent threat from three-point range or creating his own shot starting out, but in Miami he can play off their other creators in transition and off the ball, until his offensive game develops more overall consistency. Where Miami will really benefit from Winslow is on the defensive end; Luol Deng (if he returns) is the closest thing they have to a lockdown wing defender so this year, which is a pretty important part of a contending team. Despite some of the noise in his shooting numbers and offensive creation ability, Winslow has always been and likely will always be an ace wing defender. He is athletic with very good lateral agility and strength, but most importantly Winslow is committed and focused on that end. On a different team, one looking for a number one or two option, Winslow might disappoint. However, in this situation, with potentially Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, and Josh McRoberts all there to move the ball and get Winslow some easy shots, he should excel as a defender/hustle player with potential for more offense in a couple of years.

Drafted Tennessee shooting guard Josh Richardson 40th overall
The Heat got another great fit for their team in the second round with Josh Richardson, who is sort of a older, lower upside version of Winslow. He is a solid, likely league-average NBA shooter that is also a good, committed defensive player that has enough ball skills and passing ability to be a secondary playmaker in a second unit. That ability makes him a little more valuable than the average good, not great shooting/defending 3-and-D because when he catches the ball, he is a threat to penetrate and pass in certain situations, instead of just having to shoot or move the ball along. This will really work in Miami, that loves manipulating defenses with passing and dribble-drives.

What To Do Next?
Miami's first priority should be retaining the services of Dragic. Beyond that they don't have much cap flexibility to make any free agent moves beyond minimum deals, but they could get back a contributor by dealing Mario Chalmers or Shabazz Napier for another position in need of depth. Chalmers is an expiring deal so he should be easy to deal to a team looking for a back-up point guard that can shoot. Targeting another backup big man or wing would make sense.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Mario Chalmers and Zoran Gragic to the Hornets for Marvin Williams

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2015 Draft Review: Charlotte Hornets

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Kemba Walker/Brian Roberts
SG: Nicolas Batum/Jeremy Lamb/Troy Daniels
SF: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist/P.J. Hairston
PF: Frank Kaminsky/Marvin Williams
C: Al Jefferson/Cody Zeller/Spencer Hawes

2015 Free Agents
C Bismack Biyombo (RFA)
SF Jeff Taylor (RFA)
PF Jason Maxiell
PG Mo Williams

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Wisconsin forward/center Frank Kaminsky 9th overall 
I completely understand the Charlotte drafting Frank Kaminsky with the ninth pick, I don't think it was a reach and he gives the Hornets exactly what they need most. I also completely understand not wanting to take Justise Winslow when he duplicates so much of what Michael Kidd-Gilchrist already does and because Charlotte just traded for both Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lamb. I am just not on board with the process that passes a superior talent on the based on those reasons. That said, Kaminsky is perfect for Charlotte, who made the playoffs two years ago in large part due to Josh McRoberts shooting and passing at power forward. McRoberts left after that year and Charlotte was unable to repeat their success. Kaminsky isn't the athlete McRoberts is, but he is a better shooter and passer who should slide right into that same spacer/distributor role. 

What To Do Next?
Charlotte did a lot of their work early, trading for Spencer Hawes, Batum, and Lamb so they might not do much else. Another veteran shooter wouldn't go amiss and they could use bigger, dependable backup point guard like a C.J. Watson type. With Al Jefferson, Kaminsky, Cody Zeller, Hawes, and Marvin Williams all on the team, one of those players will likely be traded. Hawes would be the most financially beneficial to get rid of, but Jefferson and Williams will probably be the easiest to trade because they are expiring deals.

A bonus trade sure not to happen
Marvin Williams (or Hawes) to Washington for Martell Webster and Garrett Temple

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2015 Draft Review: Detroit Pistons

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Brandon Jennings/Spencer Dinwiddie
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Jodie Meeks/Darrun Hilliard
SF: Stanley Johnson/Reggie Bullock/Danny Granger
PF: Ersan Ilyasova/Anthony Tolliver/Marcus Morris
C: Andre Drummond/Aron Baynes

2015 Free Agents
PG Reggie Jackson (RFA)
C Joel Anthony
PG John Lucas III
SF Cartier Martin (player option)
C Greg Monroe
SF Tayshaun Prince

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Arizona forward Stanley Johnson 8th overall
The Piston's made a controversial but completely understandable decision to choose Stanley Johnson over Duke's Justise Winslow to fill their hole at small forward. Not only is it arguable that Johnson is a superior prospect, but he certainly fits Stan Van Gundy's system better as well. Johnson is taller, stronger, bulkier, and longer than Winslow and should legitimately be able to play power forward in the NBA as well as small forward. This is big in SVG's spread pick-and-roll offense because they can play big or small and still have four shooters on the floor. Johnson's ability to shoot off the dribble will allow him to create when playing small forward or completely devastate and power forwards that try to close out too hard. At Arizona, Johnson played out of position at shooting guard and was frequently on the floor with four other non-shooters (something his detractors conveniently ignore), so the burden was frequently on him to stretch the floor. Get him to his natural forward positions with other shooters on the floor and Johnson should be able to show more of his game. Detroit should look to acquire another small forward as insurance, but Johnson should play a bulk of the minutes at forward for Detroit. Winslow is a great prospect but he is undersized, at 6-4.5 in socks Winslow is the same height as Aaron Harrison, Lance Stephenson, Devin Booker, R.J. Hunter, Zach LaVine, Dant Exum, and Tim Hardaway Jr. among others. Most of those players are a stretch to play small forward, let alone power forward, which is flexibility that Detroit is looking for.

Drafted Villanova wing Darrun Hilliard 38th overall
Their second round pick however, is a little less defensible. Hilliard wasn't really a draftable prospect and Detroit certainly could have found a better player with an early second rounder. Hilliard can really shoot, hovering around 40% from three on a high volume of attempts his last two seasons, but besides that he doesn't really offer much. Hilliard is a below-average NBA athlete that isn't quick enough to guard twos or strong enough for small forwards, he plays hard on that end but might just not be athletic enough. Hilliard might stick as an end of the bench three-point specialist, he really can shoot.

What To Do Next?
Assuming they re-sign Reggie Jackson, finding a home for Brandon Jennings should be next on the agenda. Jennings would be an ideal bench scorer, but he may not be okay with that role, so Detroit should get what they can for him. Back-up center is an area of concern, preferably one that can shoot well enough to compliment Andre Drummond. Justin Hamilton is restricted, but would be a decent option. 

A bonus trade sure not to happen
Jennings to Indiana for C.J. Miles and Ian Mahinmi

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2015 Draft Review: Denver Nuggets

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Ty Lawson/Erick Green
SG: Emmanuel Mudiay/Randy Foye/Gary Harris/Jamaal Franklin
SF: Danilo Gallinari/Wilson Chandler
PF: Kenneth Faried/J.J. Hickson/Joffery Lauvergne
C: Jusef Nurkic/Nikola Jokic

2015 Free Agents
G/F Will Barton (RFA)
G Ian Clark (RFA)
PF Darrell Arthur
PG Jameer Nelson (player option)

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Congolese-American point guard Emmanuel Mudiay 7th overall
The Nuggets had considered trading up for Mudiay, but lucked out when who I considered to be the second best prospect in the draft, fell to them at pick seven. Emmanuel Mudiay is a perfect fit for Denver's situation and team; he'll allow them to move on from Ty Lawson, getting value from him via trade while also having a prospect with better long-term potential at point guard than Lawson. Mudiay should flourish in Denver because Mike Malone should help him get the most out of his immense defensive potential while also playing to his strengths on offense. Mudiay is terrific fast-breaking in the open floor, which is what the Nuggets want to do in the altitude.When they do get in the half-court, Mudiay excels running pick-and-roll and he'll have plenty of opportunities with some good partners with which to run it. Pick-and-roll should be the bread-and-butter of Denver's halfcourt offense for years to come, which sets the direction they should be heading towards when acquiring players: efficient pick-and-roll players that are good at both starting and finishing fast breaks.

Drafted Serbian point guard Nikola Radicevic 57th overall
Radicevic, who played with fellow draftees Kristaps Porzingis and Guillermo Henangomez at Sevilla, isn't likely to come to the NBA anytime soon but has some potential when he does. A big point guard that is good running pick-and-roll, Radicevic is similar to Mudiay in several ways, though not as good of an athlete or finisher. He is a good lateral athlete though, which combined with his size gives him the potential to be an above-average defender. Where he needs to improve is shooting from range, he made just 25% of his shots in the ACB last season. For a 57th overall pick, Radicevic has better than average odds to make it to the NBA as a backup point guard.

What To Do Next?
Denver needs to figure out which players they are keeping and whom they want to move on from. Lawson is most likely out the door, giving Mudiay a chance to start early on and the Nuggets really should try to get what they can for Faried, who isn't that good of a player and is vastly overpaid. There have been rumors that Gallinari is also on the block, but I am not sure why they would want to. Gallinari is a good player, just 26, and on a good contract. After trades, Denver should target younger players to grow with the core of Mudiay, Nurkic, and possibly Gallinari. Justin Holiday is an athletic wing with solid defensive, ball-handling, and shooting potential. He could duplicate a lot of what Will Barton gave them last year, but with better chance of making outside shots. Derrick Williams would also be an interesting potential lottery ticket. He has always been very good getting out in transition and if he develops a jumpshot, they could have a nice fit for that they want to do.

A bonus trade sure not to happen
Faried (or Gallinari) and Lawson to Boston for Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk, and Gerald Wallace

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Monday, June 29, 2015

2015 Draft Review: Sacramento Kings

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Darren Collison/Ray McCallum/David Stockton
SG: Ben McLemore/Nik Stauskas
SF: Rudy Gay
PF: Willie Cauley-Stein/Carl Landry/Eric Moreland
C: DeMarcus Cousins/Jason Thompson

2015 Free Agents
F Derrick Williams (RFA)
F Omri Casspi
PF Reggie Evans
C Ryan Hollins
PG Andre Miller

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein 6th overall
Willie Cauley-Stein was long rumored to be a favorite both of Sacramento's various front offices and star center DeMarcus Cousins, so it was no surprise that is the direction they decided to go in. In theory it makes sense, the Kings' defense was one of the worst in the league last season, and Cauley-Stein was considered the best overall defensive prospect in the draft, a natural fit. In practice, however, it may not go so smoothly. On offense, it could really damage Sacramento's already poor spacing. Unless he takes a drastic step forward, Cauley-Stein is not a threat anywhere outside the basket area so there won't be any reason for teams to not double-off him to Cousins in the post, which will hurt his efficiency there. While it might seem logical to use Cousins further away from the basket, he shot just 38% outside the paint. So taking an already not terrifically efficient player and putting him in a position to be less efficient isn't exactly the best strategy for a not-great offensive team. Furthermore, Cousins is such a great offensive rebounder, moving him further from the basket hurts that as well. Sacramento might be able get by if they had great shooters on the floor elsewhere, but consider Sacramento's presumptive starting wings, Ben McLemore and Rudy Gay. Despite a reputation as a shooter, McLemore was really only effective from the corners, making 41% of his shots there while above the break hitting only 33%. Gay on the other hand shot 41% from the wings (above the break, but not straight on) but just 29% elsewhere. So the Kings can space the floor, but only from specific areas, something smart defenses can exploit by moving them off those spots. Even more of an issue is that three-pointers made up just 20% of Gay's offense, meaning 80% came inside the arc, which means Sacramento will be starting three mostly inside-the-arc players, it will be getting pretty crowded in there. Asking Gay to shoot more from the outside also risks a regression to the inefficiency that have plagued his career in previous seasons. Now trades, particularly of Gay could change this a little bit, but the fact remains Cauley-Stein will be easy to double off of no matter who else is on the floor, he is a pick-and-roll center, not a power forward to play next to a low post big. Even defensively Cauley-Stein's talents won't be maximized playing next to Cousins. Because you don't want Cousins defending on the perimeter and against pick-and-roll, you'll need to have him guard the opposing center and remain as close to the rim as possible, where he is very good getting in front and challenging shots. This puts Cauley-Stein on the power forward, where he should be excellent except it will be very easy for a team with a jump-shooting power forward to simply set him up in the corner on one side of the floor while running a pick-and-roll on the other side, negating Cauley-Stein's ability to switch and block shots. True he could leave his man to help cover the rim, but that would leave a wide-open three in the corner. And because he isn't much of a threat as a post-up player, teams can play small forward at the four with little chance of Cauley-Stein making them pay for going small. Carley-Stein needs to play center defensively, place him in the middle of the floor and use his ability to cover so much ground to blow-up pick-and-rolls, cut of penetration, and protect the rim. I think Cauley-Stein should still help their defense, but he can hurt their offense and won't be maximized to the fullest potential. George Karl is smarter than me, so maybe he can make it work. Playing fast will certainly help.

What To Do Next?
Trades trades trades! I'm not sure they have much they can really do in free agency, but rumors that they want Rajon Rondo would be horrifying and ruin even more spacing. A trade for Ty Lawson makes more sense and would definitely help them get better. Even more helpful would be moving Rudy Gay and acquiring a better shooter at small forward, former Karl player Danilo Gallinari perhaps? I am sure they'd like to make a run at Wes Matthews or Danny Green, but I can't see it happening unless they way overpay.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Gay and Nik Stauskas to Denver for Lawson and Gallinari

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2015 Draft Review: Orlando Magic

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Elfrid Payton/Tyler Harvey
SG: Victor Oladipo/Evan Fournier/Ben Gordon
SF: Mario Hezonja/Maurice Harkless/Devyn Marble
PF: Aaron Gordon/Channing Frye/Andrew Nicholson
C: Nikola Vucevic/Dewayne Dedmon

2015 Free Agents
F Tobias Harris (RFA)
C Kyle O'Quinn (RFA)
SG Willie Green

What The Did On Draft Night
Drafted Croatian wing Mario Hezonja 5th overall
There isn't a more perfect fit of team need and skillset that Mario Hezonja and the Magic. The Magic have a bunch of athletes that defend very hard but cannot really shoot, while shoot is what Hezonja does best. I actually like that Hezonja will be coached by Scott Skiles, who definitely has his flaws but he should be able to get the most out of Hezonja on the defensive end. When Hezonja is locked-in and trying on defense, he can be really really good at it; Skiles will require him to play defense to get on the floor. How Skiles deals with Hezonja's shot selection is another matter, but they are both such intense guys hopefully they'll respect each other. Both Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo are excellent creating off the dribble, so the hope is as they draw attention, Hezonja can work open behind the arc. If the defense over-commits towards him, Hezonja is more than capable of taking the ball to the basket off the dribble.

Drafted Eastern Washington combo guard Tyler Harvey 51st overall
Harvey is very similar to current Magic guard Ben Gordon in that he can shoot, and shoot really well, but nothing else. Both are undersized to play shooting guard but lack the creation skills to play point guard. Because he is such a good shooter, Harvey can stick on the roster as a shooting specialist that comes in and spaces the floor. In favorable match-ups, I could see Harvey defending point guards while Oladipo or Payton take the shooting guards as well as primary creation duties. This will work against some point guards, but it is questionable if you'd want Harvey defending Derrick Rose or Kyrie Irving. Last season Orlando was so putrid shooting the three that Harvey, if he makes the roster, could have a bigger impact than the average last second round pick.

What to do next?
Unless Orlando is really looking to shake up their roster via trade, they should have a relatively quite offseason. Their one big decision is whether or not to re-sign restricted free agent Tobias Harris. Harris could really help Orlando's scoring starved offense and would compliment Aaron Gordon's defense well off the bench, but Harris and Skiles clashed when both were in Memphis so it is unclear if either is interested in re-uniting. Another factor is that Harris might be offered big money that the Magic are unwilling to match. Beyond that, Orlando's big need is a backup point guard, preferably one that can shoot. Aaron Brooks would be an interesting option who could run a devastating pick-and-pop with Channing Frye.

A bonus trade sure not to happen
Channing Frye to Washington for Nene

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2015 Draft Review: New York Knicks

2015-16 Rotation
PG: Jose Calderon/Jerian Grant
SG: Langston Galloway
SF: Cleanthony Early
PF: Carmelo Anthony/Kristaps Porzingis
C: ???

2015 Free Agents
PF Quincy Acy (RFA)
G Alexey Shved (RFA)
PF Travis Wear (RFA)
C Cole Aldrich
PF Lou Amundson
C Andrea Bargnani
PG Shane Larkin
PF Jason Smith
F Lance Thomas

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Latvian power forward Kristaps Porzingis 3rd overall
Though I didn't think he was the forth best player in the draft, as a prospect, Porzingis is the real deal and should be good, but I am not sure New York is a great fit for him. Not because as soon as he misses a shot, their fans will be all over him, but because his position of power forward is one that should be filled by Carmelo Anthony. Anthony's defense is much more bearable at power forward, and his offense is absolutely devastating at that position. This makes even less sense when you factor Porzingis is somewhat of a project that won't be ready to play starters minutes for another year or two; during that time Carmelo will also be getting older (shocking I know) and he'll become even more of a defensive liability on the perimeter. Now if they trade Anthony and commit to a true rebuilding, giving Porzingis the minutes he needs to develop that is another matter. However I can't see the Knicks doing that, instead they'll likely go for the quick fix and Porzingis' development will stall. I can't fault New York for taking a player that has a chance to be very good, but it may cause some issues down the line when all of their players are ready to go full-out and fit together weirdly. I also worry they won't be patient with his development.

Traded Tim Hardaway Jr. to Atlanta for the 19th overall pick, drafted Notre Dame point guard Jerian Grant
As questionable as the first pick is, their second move looks brilliant. Tim Hardaway Jr. might not be an NBA player, but the Knicks got a first round pick for him. Better that that, they selected an excellent prospect at good value. Jerian Grant has starting potential for New York and has the size they want in the triangle. In a more traditional offense, Grant excels in pick-and-roll but is equally effective off the ball because of how well he moves off the ball. Defensively, he has potential to defend both guard spots at an above-average level. On a good team, Grant is probably the first guard off of the bench, but the Knicks are not a good team so he should probably start and be given every opportunity until a definitively better player comes along to move him to the bench.

Traded two future second rounders for Spanish center Guillermo Hernangomez, drafted 35th overall by Philadelphia
The Knicks basically owe Philadelphia every one of their second round picks from now until the earth collapses into a black hole (an apt metaphor for the Knicks), but they got a solid young prospect in this trade. Hernangomez is likely a stash for a year or two, but he fits well in the triangle because he can face up while having good feel passing and the handling the ball. Defensively he isn't a shot blocker, but is relatively mobile and could become a good below the rim defender. Hernangomez played on the same team as Porzingis in Spain, so they two have some chemistry. I doubt he becomes a starter, but for 10-15 minutes a night Hernangomez could be a decent backup center in the triangle.

What To Do Next?
What the Knicks shouldn't do is go for 30+ year-old free agents in an attempt to win now, unless they are on short term one, maybe two year deals. Instead they should focus on the years in the future when Porzingis will presumably become the star to lead their team. Center Robin Lopez still has a number of prime years left and could be the defensive anchor that the Knicks so desperately need while not costing them too much money. A less expensive center option would be restricted free agent Bismack Biyombo, who while certainly a flawed player can protect the rim and wouldn't cost much. They should also make a run at DeMarre Carroll, Danny Green, Wes Matthews and even Jimmy Butler, but without going overboard financially to get one. Forward Al-Farouq Aminu is a different type of player than those others, but he would compliment Carmelo very well. Trading Carmelo should definitely be on the table, especially if they can get back draft picks or a good young player.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Carmelo Anthony to Dallas for Chandler Parsons, Justin Anderson, Dwight Powell, and Devin Harris

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Sunday, June 28, 2015

2015 Draft Review: Philadelphia 76ers

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Isaiah Canaan/Tony Wroten
SG: Hollis Thompson/JaKarr Sampson/J.P. Tokoto
SF: Robert Covington/Jerami Grant
PF: Nerlens Noel/Richaun Holmes/Furkan Aldemir
C: Joel Embiid/Jahlil Okafor

2015 Free Agents
SF Glenn Robinson III (RFA)
C Henry Sims (RFA)
F Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
SG Jason Richardson
PF Thomas Robinson
PG Ish Smith

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Duke center Jahlil Okafor 3rd overall
Philadelphia stuck with their process and will probably reap the rewards of it. Even if Okafor doesn't ever play for Philadelphia, they are going to get a lot of value out of him one way or another. Let's say Joel Embiid is hypothetically trade, Okafor fits really well next to Nerlens Noel on the defensive end of the court at least. Noel is very mobile and disruptive defensively and will help to cover up Okafor's defensive shortcomings until he improves on that end. Offensively it is a little more questionable, at least until one of the pair improves their range offensively. If those are the two Philly rolls with, it will be up to them to find shooters are the other three positions in order to compensate. Still, it seems like that Okafor or Noel will be traded, unless Embiid's foot injury is really that bad. Trading Noel is intesesting, who has less years remaining on his contract than the other two but would likely return quite a haul because he has DPOY-like potential. Embiid and Okafor actually would fit pretty well together, it might be a little awkward at first, or at least until the correct pieces are surrounding them. Embiid has shown a mid-range game and has the agility to defend most power forwards. If that jump-shot becomes a reliable weapon, they could work a high-low, twin-towers offense with three other shooters on the floor to maximize space. This could be particularly effective because both Embiid and Okafor are very good passers. Whenever it happens, Philadelphia will likely be trading one of these three, all of which could fit together in a pair, with the correct system and teammates.

Drafted Bowling Green power forward Richaun Holmes 37th overall
At this point in their rebuild, Philadelphia is more about acquiring assets and good young players, not worrying about fit or roster construction right now. Therefore, drafting another big man (and even more later) is purely a matter of drafting the best available prospect. That said, Holmes actually fits decently with their other big men, because he can defend while also having a pretty effective face-up game. With Okafor, he can play out of the paint enough to provide space while also helping cover up some of the current deficiencies in Okafor's defense. Similarly, a Holmes/Noel, Holmes/Embiid frontline could be very hard to score against. 

Drafted Lithuanian center Arturas Gudaitis 47th overall
Gudaitis is most likely just a trade asset to be stashed in Europe, but he can be an NBA player, which is more than you can say for many second round stash prospects. Gudaitis is a classic high energy backup big man that runs the floor, rebounds, and defends. He is a good athlete for his size and has potential to defend the pick-and-roll well. Offensively he is limited to finishing close to the basket, but is good at it. As a second rounder, Gudaitis will be inexpensive if he comes over in the next three years, making him valuable in a trade and a financially reasonable third center if Philadelphia keeps his rights.

Drafted North Carolina wing J.P. Tokoto 58th overall
Tokoto is a match made in NBA system heaven, fitting exactly what Philadelphia targets in wing players: length, athletic ability, defensive potential and a broken jumpshot. Okay, maybe they don't target that last part, but the fact remains they look to take advantage of an inefficiency by selecting players that are a jumper away from being above-average NBA players. This is smart because if it takes five second round picks, yet works out one of those times, they get a valuable NBA player at a low cost while not really increasing the flame out ratio of second rounders. The fact is, most second rounders don't make it, but by acquiring many of them without giving up much of value, it increases the chances you find a prospect or two that does become a rotation player, giving you an inexpensive contributor. Tokoto provides value in areas other than defense and shooting as well, he played point guard some in college and has very good vision and passing ability.

Drafted Serbian power forward Luka Mitrovic 60th overall
Another likely stash prospect, Luka Mitrovic will probably never see the NBA. He is actually decently skilled, but simply lacks the size to play power forward and the athletic ability to move to the wing.

What To Do Next?
I mean really, who knows? Philadelphia is somewhat held hostage by Embiid's foot, if they know he is going to be healthy next season, they can proceed to trade whomever of the three they wish. The uncertainty right now about his foot means they can't trade him at full value, while it also makes trading Noel or Okafor risky because if they trade one, and Embiid cannot ever become consistently healthy, they'll be left with just one big man. Still, if they are confident in Embiid's health, I would trade Noel. He is an awesome defensive player and a pleasure to watch, but he doesn't fit great at power forward and has the least years left on his rookie contract. Trading Noel to a team looking for a defensive center (Lakers? Celtics? Mavericks?) for a perimeter player like say Marcus Smart would begin to mold the roster into a more balanced structure while not giving up any youth or upside. Besides that, Philadelphia may poke around some of the younger free agents and put out some offer sheets, but it is unlikely this is the summer they push all their chips into the middle. More likely, they target some inexpensive flyers and attempt to resign Ish Smith to play point guard. Isaiah Canaan is a solid point as well, and his ability to shoot should fit well with Okafor, who should really be the one their offense plays through next season. A possible target is Spurs point guard Cory Joseph is a restricted free agent but San Antonio will likely have to let him go as they attempt to make space for LaMarcus Aldridge. Joseph has really stated to come into his own as a solid player and at just 23 would fit into Philadelphia's long term plans. If they can sign him to a reasonable deal, Joseph is the kind of undervalued player that Philadelphia should pounce on. Knicks free agent point guard Shane Larkin would be a less expensive free agent option at point guard, he fit poorly in the triangle and never got a chance in Dallas, but Larkin would fit well in Philadelphia's uptempo offense and can shoot well enough to help space the floor. He is an unrestricted free agent and even younger that Joseph at 22.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Nerlens Noel to Atlanta for Dennis Schroder
OR
Noel to Lakers, Schroder to Philadelphia, Julius Randle to Atlanta

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