Five Breakout NBA players in 2017-18

After an offseason full of player movement, the start of the season means new opportunities for many players across the league. These five players not only have bigger roles waiting for them, but also the skills to take advantage and break out.

Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
This is the obvious one, Rodney Hood is sure to be all over breakout/most important player lists this preseason; it's clear that Hood needs to take a step forward for the Jazz to return to the playoffs. With Gordon Heyward gone, Hood is Utah's top remaining perimeter scorer and will be there go-to scoring option. It is important to note that Utah's egalitarian offense system won't feature a lot of iso situations, but no offense can rely completely on ball+player movement, there will plenty of times that individual shot creation will be required and Hood will probably lead the team in such opportunities. He won't replace Heyward 1-to-1, the Jazz will count on Ricky Rubio's passing, a Derrick Favors/Alec Burks health bounce-back, and rookie Donovan Mitchell to fill the void, but Hood will be the biggest piece in a group effort. For and foremost, health will be crucial for Hood, who has two seasons playing less than 60 games sandwiched between a nearly complete season of 79 games. Assuming health, Hood will need to not only sustain what he has been good at in the past but also develop his game to become more of a primary offensive option. Hood's strengths are obvious, he is a very good shooter from deep (.371 from three point range) and at 6-8 he has no trouble getting his shot off, while his patience running pick-and-roll allows him to be effective off the dribble without the burst normally associated with such actions. Where Hood needs to get better is inside the arc; his career fee throw rate (.196) and 2-point percentage are (.458) are well below average. Lacking that burst, Hood will need to hone his craft, using his size to finish over shorter players and become more active off the ball, getting easy shots at the basket via cuts and backscreens. Playing with more than willing passers like Rubio and Joe Ingles should allow Hood to get some easier looks, particularly on the break. Utah isn't a very fast-paced team (though that might change with Rubio) by Gordon Heyward excelled at leaking out ahead of the pack, something Hood should attempt to emulate. It's not that Hood is a lazy player by any means, but he can be somewhat low energy and not assertive hunting his own shot, which is exactly what the Jazz need of him. Also, in a contract year, Hood could really help his own financial situation with a big year, or tank it with a bad one.

Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
The Celtics traded away their two top perimeter defenders and replaced them with a decidedly bad defender (Kyrie Irving), an okay one (Marcus Morris) and a very good one (Gordon Heyward). Heyward and Morris should at least hold serve replacing Jae Crowder but Avery Bradley is a different story. Irving will slot into Isaiah Thomas' role as resident defensive sieve but without Bradley there to match-up on the opposing point guard, that duty will fall in crucial moments on Marcus Smart, who is up to the task on that end of the floor. Whether or not he can replace Bradley's offensive contributions is more of an open question. Smart's size, strength, and tenacity make him one of best, most versatile defender in the league, able to battle bigger players in the post while pestering on the perimeter with quick feet and hands. Despite his willingness to fire away 4+ three-pointers a game, Smart is a terrible three-point shooter (.291 career) and his .422 percentage on two-point shots is just as putrid (compare that with Avery Bradley's .390 and .504 marks, respectively, last season). At this point, defenses have little to fear by leaving him wide open outside the arc, something that will really hurt the Celtics in crunch time, which is exactly when they will need him on the floor. So how can he be successful? In his prime, Tony Allen couldn't shoot and would routinely flub wide-open layups, yet was a successful player for years. Obviously being one of the best perimeter defenders in NBA history helped (Smart is excellent but he isn't quite Allen's level) but that didn't sort out his offense. On that end, Allen was always hunting for easy shots for himself, crashing the glass, sprinting in transition, and was such a threat to cut to the basket that defenses had to pay attention to him even if he wasn't going to shoot. That's the template use for his success, work as hard off the ball offensively as he does on defense. And Smart, while still a really bad shooter, can get hot at times which means that he can take a three from time to time, when wide open, he just shouldn't be so shot happy from there. Like Hood, Smart is also in a contract year and has some financial incentive to be better than he has been.

Allen Crabbe, Brooklyn Nets
With Portland, Crabbe played a crucial role in the Blazers offensive when he was on the floor, spacing the floor for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, courtesy of a .444 shooting percentage from behind the arc. In Brooklyn, Crabbe will be performing a similar task for D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin. However, Russell and Lin are lower usage players than Lillard and McCollum, which should give Crabbe a chance to take even more three than the 3.8 he attempted per game last season. 73 players attemped more threes than Crabbe last season. As a member of the Nets last season, Bojan Bogdanovic attempted 5 threes a game, if Crabbe takes that many or more a game (last season he was at 3.8) and continues to make 40%+ from three, a breakout offensive performance is very possible. Brooklyn took the third most threes last season (more than Golden State believe it or not) and will look to shoot even more this season, a plan that suits Crabbe just fine. The other factor here is that Brooklyn has every incentive to play Crabbe starters minutes, as they just used much of their copious cap space in order to acquire him, and had attempted to get him in the past. More opportunities is often all that it takes for a NBA player to have breakout campaign.

Jerami Grant, Oklahoma City
As of now, the Thunder's backup center is Dakari Johnson, who might not even make the roster. Unless the Thunder find a veteran big man, they'll have to find someone to backup Steven Adams. While a 6-8, 210 pound forward like Jerami Grant might not seem like the prime option, but Grant's defensive potential as someone who can switch and block shots, is actually ideal for playing center in the modern NBA, especially against backup centers who aren't going to kill him in the post. In less advantageous matchups, say against a lumbering post scorer like Jahlil Okafor, Grant would be just as much of a matchup problem because of his ability to make straight line drives and passably shoot from three, skills that will play up as a center. Last season, Grant made .371 of his 144 three-point attempts, something he will look to keep up in his first full year with the Thunder, if not at that level at least at a passable 33-35%, which would be very good if he is playing at center. Likewise, Grant isn't a superb driver but is quick for his size and is a vicious finisher when he gets to the rim. As a backup center, playing with some combination of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, Grant will be asked to space the floor, attack closeouts, and finish lobs, all things he has shown the ability to do in the past. Defensively, Grant is one of the elite shot blockers in the NBA, finishing 11th in the NBA in block percentage (The Greek Freak is the only non-center ahead of him) so Grant has part of the big man skills down pat, though he will drastically need to improve as a rebounder in order to make it work at center. His 7.4 defensive rebound would rank second to last season among centers, besting only 35 year old, ground-bound Boris Diaw. Part of that poor number is the amount of time Grant spent playing small forward (and playing with high level rebounders that grabbed the boards instead) but no doubt he must improve to at least league average on the glass, an accomplishment that seems possible given his length and leaping ability. If Grant can stay a solid shooter and top level defender, while also improving his rebounding, a breakthrough to becoming one of the better backups in the NBA is definitely possible.

Norman Powell, Toronto Raptors
The Raptors roster has changed quite a bit over that last year, with players coming and going. Of the top ten per game minute getters last season, half of them are gone and their replacements are mostly unproven players. On the wing, the Raptors have presumed starters DeMar DeRozan and CJ Miles, then injured rookie OG Anunoby, still raw Bruno Caboclo, and multiple time castoff KJ McDaniels. These are the players Norman Powell is competing with for minutes. In fact it can be argued that Powell is the second best wing on the roster, ahead of Miles. Assuming there are 96 minutes available on the wing, DeRozan will take about 36 of them, leaving 60 minutes to be divided up among the rest. Whether it be from 25 to 30 minutes a game, Powell is sure to see a boost in minutes from the 18 a game he averaged last season. And honestly, as far as talent is concerned, playing time may be all that Powell needs to break out. Despite being relatively short for a wing, Powell is strongly built and has long arms to challenge bigger, stronger players defensively. Offensively, his jumper could stand to be more consistent, he is somewhat streaky, but where Powell stands out is his ability to beat defenders off the dribble and make plays going towards the basket. Powell took 41% of his shots withing 0-3 feet of the basket and made an excellent .606% of those shots. Given his ability defensively and a solid outside stroke, Powell should be the first player off the bench in Toronto, if not the starter by season's end.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Draft Review

Current Roster
PG: Russell Westbrook/Semaj Christon
SG: Victor Oladipo/Alex Abrines/Terrence Ferguson
SF: Doug McDermott/Kyle Singler/Josh Huestis
PF: Jerami Grant/Domantas Sabonis
C: Steven Adams/Enes Kanter

2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
C Taj Gibson
C Nick Collison
G Norris Cole

Restricted
F Andre Roberson

Who They Drafted
1-21 Terrence Ferguson, SG Adelaide
The Thunder used their first round pick on Terrence Ferguson, an American player who skipped college to play overseas for one season. Ferguson is exactly the kind of player the Thunder needed last year and didn't have, as their roster was loaded with players that could either defend or shoot, but not both. Though he is young and will need time to develop, Ferguson could become one of the better 3-and-D players in the NBA because he already has a nice shooting stroke (though it needs a little polishing) and has the athleticism and most importantly the mindset to be a very good defender of perimeter players. He's also a fast, explosive leaper that should be tremendous in transition with Russell Westbrook. His off the dribble game is what is keeping him from being more than a role player but if he can improve his handle and shot creation ability, his upside would be higher.

What They Need Going Forward
Unless they trade, the Thunder don't have much money to make many moves, however they'll have to do whatever they can to get a real backup point guard that can at least keep the ship afloat while Westbrook is on the bench. And no, Norris Cole is not that player. There are also questions about their power forward spot, where they either have unproven players or more combo-y guys. A proven, above-average PF, even if it is just bringing back Taj Gibson, would go a long way to improving their team.

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2015 Draft Review: Oklahoma City Thunder

2015-16 Depth Chart

PG: Russell Westbrook/D.J. Augustin/Cameron Payne

SG: Anthony Morrow/Dion Waiters/

SF: Kevin Durant/Kyle Singler/Andre Roberson/Josh Huestis/Steve Novak

PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Perry Jones III

C: Steven Adams/Mitch McGary/Dakari Johnson

2015 Free Agents

C Enes Kanter (RFA)

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Murray State point guard Cameron Payne 14th overall

The Thunder seem to have their sights on Cameron Payne since early in the process, and the got their guy. It makes sense since backup point guard was one of the few longterm needs they had, with D.J. Augustin set to become a free agent next summer. This is an ideal situation for Payne because there won't be any pressure on him to come in and be the guy at point guard, instead he'll have a role and be able to play off of the Thunder's stars. Payne fits well in Oklahoma City because he is a good spot-up shooter that can play off the ball when sharing the backcourt with Russell Westbrook, but is also able to take the reins as the lead guard with Westbrook on the bench. It is also good for Payne that he won't have to shoulder starters minutes any time soon, he needs to get stronger before that will be a good idea.

Drafted Kentucky center Dakari Johnson 48th overall

Due to the incredible amount of talent on the Thunder's roster, Dakari Johnson is not likely to see a single minute of action this season, but will play in the D-League the whole year. Johnson is an old school, low-post center that plays very much below the rim. Johnson rebounds well and has great size, but will likely struggle on both ends of the court due to his well below average athletic ability. Playing in the D-League will benefit Johnson because he can learn to use his size to compensate in a low pressure environment.

What To Do Next

The Thunder want to bring back Enes Kanter and Kyle Singler, but besides that their roster is full so there isn't much else they can do unless they look for a trade involving D.J. Augustin in order to clear the way for Payne. Some of the periphery young talent on the roster could also be packaged with a pic or one of the Euro players Oklahoma City has the rights to in order to upgrade the shooting guard spot or clear room for a signing.

A bonus trade sure to never happen

D.J. Augustin to Washington for a second round pick

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Batum, Lamb, Barnes Trades

Hornets get SF Nicolas Batum

Blazers get PF Noah Vonleh, SG Gerald Henderson

I had mentioned Batum as a possible trade candidate to a team like Utah a couple weeks back, but Charlotte hadn't entered my thinking. The trade does make sense on their end, either as a part of their team moving forward or as a trade piece in the draft. He has always been an unappreciated player because he played in Portland with some bigger stars, but Batum is basically the ultimate role player who fits in seamlessly as a great third option. His fit in Charlotte's lineup is a little non-traditional because he'll be playing shooting guard at 6-8, but Batum has always been better against smaller players because he is so long and quick, but not very strong. Offensively, he had a down year last season but considering he has a consistent track record before that as a 35-40% three-point shooter on a high number of attempts, it is pretty safe to write off 2014-15 as a wrist injury aided aberration. This is good because Charlotte needs shooting more than any team in the league and could use Batum's ability to handle the ball and pass. Despite his size, Batum has developed into a quality pick-and-roll player that should help take some of the pressure off of Kemba Walker. Batum definitely fits best as a shooting guard, but can move up to the three on occasion and would make an intruiging small-ball lineup moving Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to power forward. The issue with this deal for Charlotte is that they gave up a lot of years of control over Vonleh for Batum, who will be a free agent in the summer of 2016. He'll turn 27 this year, so it should be safe to re-sign him and get his a good part of his prime years and early decline, but there is always the risk that he walks next summer and leaves Charlotte with nothing.

For Portland, it was first reported that this wasn't a sign of rebuilding and it wouldn't affect their ability to re-sign LaMarcus Aldridge but now ESPN is reporting there is a "99.9% chance" he is leaving in free agency this summer. If that is they case, Portland will have lost their best player Aldridge, their fourth best player Batum and could possibly lose their third best player, free agent Wes Matthews, who is by-the-way coming off of a torn Achilles and turning 29 this year. That smells an awful lot like rebuilding, in which case the acquisition of Vonleh makes a ton of sense: he is young (turning 20), a top 10 pick just last season, and on his rookie deal for three more seasons, with the possibility of staying under team control for almost a decade. However, all of that means absolutely nothing if he isn't any good, which is still up for debate. It's hard to learn anything based off of last season, Vonleh was injured and Charlotte was such a mess that evaluating the 259 minutes he played is rather fruitless. Coming into the draft, Vonleh had a tremendous frame at 6-10, 240 with a 7-4+ wingspan and good athletic testing numbers,  though the question remains whether he can actually effectively use that athletic ability on the court. One thing is clear, Vonleh can rebound. He did so in college and posted a top-20 rebound rate in his limited minutes this season (18.3). Part of Vonleh's appeal is that he projects as a good defender who can shoot from the perimeter at times, though really he didn't do either of those things particularly well in his first year, but like I said, it was basically a lost season. Because of the questions about Vonleh's ability to move laterally, it makes sense for him to play mostly center where he can certainly rebound and protect the rim, even if his help defense isn't outstanding. Offensively, all will rely on his jumper and whether it develops into a consistent weapon. If it does, Portland can get an approximation, albeit a lesser one, of the spacing, solid overall defense, and rebounding that Aldridge provided. 

Henderson is probably just here for the one season remaining on his contract, if indeed Portland decides to rebuild. He is a good defender against both shooting guards and small forward, but a lack of range offensively causes some spacing issues, making Henderson perhaps better suited to a bench role. Another possibility would be to use Henderson as part of a trade to acquire younger, higher upside talent.  Henderson is a useful player that could definitely help boost a contenders bench without a long term financial commitment. 

Thunder get PG Luke Ridnour

Hornets get SG Jeremy Lamb

Grizzlies get SF Matt Barnes

Magic get the draft rights to SF Janis Timma

This wasn't a four team trade, but essentially amounted to one. Ridnour might stick as Oklahoma City's third point guard, but considering they are trying to save money and create roster space, I wouldn't count on it.

Timma's rights are actually a bigger deal the average fan might believe, despite being the 60th overall pick in 2013, Kevin Pelton projects Timma as an above-replacement level player in the NBA. You'll probably read some jokes on the internet about Memphis getting Barnes for nothing, but Timma has actual value. If and when he comes to the NBA is up for debate, but Timma is a good athlete that has steadily developed his jumper to the point of being an above-average shooter.

Barnes is a decent addition to Memphis' wing rotation, at 35 how much is left in the tank is debatable, but he can still shoot, making between 34-36% of his threes last season on a decent number of attempts the last three seasons. Defensively, Barnes has slipped and is now better defending power forwards and could give Memphis some good small ball options, particularly paired with Jeff Green, who annually is better defending small forwards but is much better playing offensively against power forwards. The shooting is the real key, if Memphis can get Barnes to shoot more 3s and continue to make them efficiently, it will be huge for them.

For Charlotte, they gave up a player they weren't going to keep for a talented young player that helps to fix their biggest weakness and has potential to be very good. Lamb never found footing in Oklahoma City but actually played well when on the court. He's shot 35% from three in the NBA was also a career 35% shooter from deep in college and in the D-League as well. Interestingly, from three Lamb shot better in catch and shoot situations in 2013-14 (39%) and shot really well off-the-dribble last season (40%), if he can put those both together consistently Lamb could become a very good shooter. Even if not, Lamb is an above-average three-point shooter who also plays very good defense and has the potential to be even better on that end as he gains experience. At worst, I think if Lamb gets minutes he will be an excellent 3-and-D wing player capable of guarding positions 1-3, provided that the small forwards aren't too strong. Where Lamb, who just turned 23, stands out though is that he has potential for more, a very smooth athlete that can really jump and has 6-11 wingspan, he has a killer crossover and can attack the rim when in attack mode, which isn't as often as it should be. Overall, this is a great acquisition that should net Charlotte a rotation player at worst and help improve Charlotte's greatest weakness: shooting. Combine that with the trade for Batum, particularly by shipping out Henderson's lack of shooting ability, and the Hornet's have turn a big weakness into a relative strength without sacrificing any defense or playmaking ability.

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2015 Draft Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

2015-16 Depth Chart

PG: Russell Westbrook/D.J. Augustin

SG: Anthony Morrow/Dion Waiters/Jeremy Lamb

SF: Kevin Durant/Andre Roberson/Josh Huestis/Steve Novak

PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Perry Jones III

C: Steven Adams/Mitch McGary

2015 Free Agents

C Enes Kanter (RFA)

SF Kyle Singer (RFA)

2015 Draft Picks

1-14

2-18(48)

Team Needs

Oklahoma City's biggest need is to stay healthy for a whole season and with their rotation next year essentially set, any player they draft is likely to be only a bit player at first (unless those pesky injuries strike again). Because of this, Oklahoma City will be looking down the line for needs that may pop up in the future. Next summer D.J. Augustin, Dion Waiters, and Jeremy Lamb could all depart in free agency, leaving Oklahoma City thin in the backcourt. It can't be ruled out that Oklahoma City would use some of their myriad pieces to trade up for a first year impact prospect, they could also trade down or out of the first round altogether.

Potential Fits

Assuming that Oklahoma City is thinking backcourt, there are four main prospects in their range to look at: Duke's Tyus Jones, Murray State's Cameron Payne, Notre Dame's Jerian Grant, and Kentucky's Devin Booker. Jones, Payne, and Grant are all point guards; Jones is the best pure playmaker, but he has questions about his ability to defend and finish, not unlike Augustin. Payne is a good combination of scoring and playmaking, but also has similar size and defense questions. Grant is the best of the three right now (also the oldest) because he can defend either guard spot, but also legitimately play point guard full time if needed. Booker is a better shooter than all three, but isn't a point guard. At just 18 he has the most upside and could be groomed for a year as Anthony Morrow-insurance before taking a bigger role next season. New coach Billy Donovan will want players who can space the floor and move the ball, both of which Booker can do.

Mock Draft

14. Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky

48. Cedi Osman, SF, Andolu Efes

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10 Things To Watch At The Orlando Summer League

1. Where does Marcus Smart look most comfortable?
The Celtics drafted Marcus Smart into a situation with a well paid veteran point guard (Rajon Rondo) and shooting guard (Avery Bradley), so there is some question as to where he will play. Before coming to Oklahoma State, Smart was a two guard, but in college he played the point. With James Young and Phil Pressey both on the summer league roster, Smart will have an opportunity to play both, so it will be interesting if he looks more comfortable off the ball or if point guard is truly his future position. With Bradley just signed to a big, long term contract, it seems most likely that Rondo will be the one either traded or let walk when his contract expires next summer. Either way, there will be pressure on Smart to be the point guard of the future. Summer league isn't the best place for point guards to shine, but if he can run some semblance of an offense, it will be a good sign.

2. Can James Young translate his talent onto the court?
There is an expression in baseball scouting that a player who has demonstrated a multitude of present or future skills is a "toolbox." In a basketball sense, Young is a toolbox. At various times he looks like he can shoot the ball from the outside, make plays for himself and others off the dribble, finish with authority, and be a lockdown defender. However, all too often those skills are sabotaged by the cerebral aspect of the game, where Young struggles. Whether it be shooting from 3-point range too often, playing out of control, misreading situations, or making mental mistakes defensively like forgetting assignments and rotations. There are some mitigating circumstances, particularly the unique situation at Kentucky with many young alpha dogs playing together for the first time. Also, he is only 18 years old. Young could have a bright future if his on-court IQ catches up to his physical abilities and skills, but if not he may just be another young talent who never reaches their potential.

3. Do Any of Brooklyn's second rounders step up?
The Nets have a roster packed with heavy contract guys, so if they can get their hands on an inexpensive young contributor or two, it will be a major boon to both their roster and their cap situation. In the 2014 draft, the Nets acquired 3 second round picks and with them drafted two shooting guards, Markel Brown and Xavier Thames, as well as power forward Cory Jefferson. If even one of these prospects becomes a contributor, even as the last man on Brooklyn's bench, it will help the Nets bloated roster gain some semblance of stability. All 3 are good, not great shooters, and have both pluses and minus to their games. Brown is undersized and lacks polished offensive skills, though he is a special athlete. Thames on the other hand, isn't overly athletic, and is also undersized, however he is a good ball handler and has a non-zero chance of becoming a point guard with work. Like Brown, Jefferson is very athletic and can shoot, but isn't a finished product offensively. He is good on the glass and can be a very good rim protector, but is also a late bloomer who hasn't sustained a high level of success for long stretches. Summer league is the first steps for these 3 as they try to prove they belong in the NBA.

4. Can Solomon Hill turn into anything?

Last season the Pacers reached for Solomon Hill, a fringe prospect, in the first round of the draft, and he really failed to impress, posting a very uninspiring 7.62 PER in just 28 game and 8.1 minutes for game. For a college senior close to his ceiling and supposedly ready to contribute, Hill didn't look like he could bring much of anything to the table. This year, the Pacers summer league roster consists of mostly castoffs and journeymen, with Hill clearly the only player with much of a chance to make an impact on the Pacers. Because of this, Hill will likely be featured by the Pacers coaching staff and given every chance to showcase his abilities. Can he show the versatility on both ends of the court that led the Pacers to draft him? Or will he look as lost, unathletic, and unskilled as he did at times during his rookie year. 

5. How do Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes handle athletes?

In round one of old vs. new school scouting, we have analytical darlings Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes looking to take the first step towards proving that basketball skill and production is more important that physical tools. Neither Stokes nor Adams is particularly impressive athletically, Stokes tested well but plays below the rim while Adams was a disaster at the NBA combine and never looked like an above-average athlete on the court. Both however, were very productive during their time in college, posting big, efficient, numbers scoring the ball, rebounding (relative to position), and even in the case of Adams, high steal totals, all of which are solid indicators of success at the next level. Neither Adams or Stokes were non-prospects, and I think most would agree that they deserves to be drafted, but Adams in particular was surprising with where he was drafted. Hopefully they have successful careers and strike a blow for skill and production over "athletic upside."

6. Is there anyone who can help the Heat?

In a minute, in a day, the Miami situation could change drasitcally depending on what the Big 3 do. If they do all re-sign, the Heat will be in a tight financially situation, which means any kind of bargain player who can help will be a huge benefit. Last year's second rounder James Ennis is intriguing because he is a tough defender and has shown the ability to shoot from the outside, consistency and improvement there would make him an intriguing James Jones replacement. Another interesting prospect is former Duke guard Andre Dawkins, who shot 42% from 3 last year and has a long-track record as a shooter. Former UCLA standout Tyler Honeycutt has always been a jack of all trades on both ends of the court, a gifted passer and ball handler despite being 6-8. The real question was his shooting, but he made 36% of his 3 last season playing in Israel. Towson forward Jarrelle Benimon isn't super skilled athletically, but he plays very hard and eats up rebounds. It is along shot for any of these players to make the Heat, but there is always a chance, which is why the summer league exists.

7. Do any of the Thunder's young players take a step forward?

The Thunder have a stacked roster yet again, featuring multiple first round picks including Steven Adams, Josh Huestis, Perry Jones, Jeremy Lamb, Mitch McGary and Andre Roberson, as well as second rounders Grant Jerrett and Semaj Christon. All are very talented and could play key roles for the Thunder off the bench. Each however, also have areas in need of improvement. Wing defense specialists Huestis and Roberson meet to develop offense to help them stay on the court. Lamb and Jones have all the talent in the world but need to be more consistent. Is McGary recovered and back to normal after his back injury? Will Steven Adams take a step forward from awkward but effective defensive player to legitimate starting center? Jarrett can shoot but he needs to do more than that to earn playing time. Christon is raw and can play wild, but has Eric Bledsoe-like athleticism and motor for a guard.

8. The Orlando's young trio score consistently?

In the last two drafts, Orlando has used 3 lottery picks on some of the best defensive players in those respective classes. Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, and Elfrid Payton all have the potential to be some of the best defensive players at their respective positions down the road. The question is, do they begin to take steps forward on offense? Payton is probably the best in that respect because of his ability to get to the rim, finish, and draw fouls, but his struggles shooting the ball mean he will be working uphill until he can improve in that area. Oladipo and Gordon score off of their energy, but neither are consistent shooters with go-to offensive moves. Oladipo can really get to the rim, but he plays very out of control and gets his shot blocked a lot. Gordon on the other hand, is an awesome finisher, but he needs to improve his footwork in the post and rework a jumpshot that can look pretty ugly at times. All three have bright futures, but the gap between valuable player and star is getting it done on both ends of the court.

9. How does Nerlens Noel look after 17 months off the court?
February 12, 2013 Nerlens Noel tore his ACL and was out for the rest of the season. Since then he has all but disappeared save for a brief appearance when he was drafted by the Sixers, not appearing in a single game for the Sixers. This summer, however, Noel will make his pro debut. Obviously, there is a good chance that he will be rusty, however that really isn't the biggest issue. What Noel needs to show is that he is healthy and fully recovered, able to move side-to-side and vertically like he did before the injury. Noel's ability to guard on the perimeter, high motor, disruptive hands, and elite rim protection skills have drawn comparisons to Joakim Noah. Noel wasn't to play like Noah, but needs to be able to move fluidly to accomplish that level of defensive impact. For all intents and purposes, Noel is basically the Sixers first round pick this year, with Joel Embiid and Dario Saric unlikely to play in the NBA next season, so there will be some unfair pressure on him to perform at a high level. This summer will be a big step forward to see if Noel, rightly or wrongly, will "disappoint" this season.

10. Do any UDFA's make teams look foolish?
Many, many draft prospects weren't drafted this year, but luckily for them they will get a chance to show what they can do in the Summer League. Some of the most notable are Tarik Black, Jahii Carson, Jabari Brown, Joe Jackson, Scottie Wilbekin, Fuquan Edwin, Aaron Craft, Melvin Ejim. Point guards like Carson, JAckson, Wilbekin, and Craft will look to show balance and control of an offense. Wing players such as Brown and Edwin will try to light up the scoreboard and shut down the man in front of them, while Ejim will look to show he isn't a tweener and Black has to defend without fouling and show a higher skill level than he did at Kansas. Odds are, none of these players will ever have a significant career in the NBA, but every once in a while one slips through the cracks of the draft and there isn't any reason why one of these couldn't end up making it on a big team roster. All have talent, from this point it is hard work and a little luck.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Draft Review

21. Mitch McGary, F/C Michigan So. (6-10, 250)
The Thunder value intangibles like motor and toughness as much as any franchise in the NBA and this draft really showed that. With both of their picks, they targeted un-flashy players who contribute in ways outside of scoring. McGary is actually most similar to current Thunder forward Nick Collison; rebounding on both ends, playing great help defense, passing, finishing around the basket, and hitting mid-range jumpers. McGary probably has more upside than Collison, but if they is all he becomes it would be well worth a late first round pick. The reason McGary fell, probably too far, were concerns about a back injury and a short track record of success. Collison will be a free agent at the end of next season, at which point McGary will take his place. Or, if Kendrick Perkins is amnestied or traded, he could backup Steven Adams at center.

29. Josh Huestis, G/F Stanford Sr. (6-8, 230) 
This pick confused me at first, Josh Huestis was off my radar some, but on further review it makes sense. Huestis is an excellent defender, an elite athlete with long arms and a high basketball IQ which makes his defensive ability play up even more. Down the road he could become one of the best defenders in the league. It is the offense that is the question, the last two seasons he shot .338% from 3, which is better than Jimmy Butler has shot last season. Butler is probably the best comp for Huestis, college Seniors who are great athletes, defense first, can make jumpshots, and contribute offensively due to their smarts and hustle. Maybe Huestis was a reach, but as a replacement to Thabo Sefolosha, which the Thunder need, he makes a lot of sense.

Projected Lineup
PG: Russell Westbrook/Reggie Jackson
SG: Jeremy Lamb/Josh Huestis
SF: Kevin Durant/Andre Roberson/Perry Jones
PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Mitch McGary
C: Kendrick Perkins/Steven Adams

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Tank You Very Much: Potential Sixers Trades

It was common knowledge that this was going to be a massive rebuilding season for Philadelphia, starting with the trade of Jrue Holiday, that would set them up for a shot at a top 3 pick in a loaded 2014 draft. After a 3-0 start, it has been suggested that they might need to trade their 3 vets, Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young, and Evan Turner in an attempt to lock up a top pick. They are probably bad enough without doing that, but Michael Carter-Williams, Nerlens Noel, and picks are the only un-tradeable things in Philadelphia, so if they can acquire assets or young pieces for these three useful veterans, they should do it....

Spencer Hawes to the Los Angeles Clippers for Reggie Bullock

The Clippers will have to include a number of small contracts to make this deal work, but the crux of the deal is Hawes for Bullock. The Clippers have championship aspirations, but a big problem with depth at the center position. There are also questions about whether DeAndre Jordan can play in cruch time due to his abysmal foul shooting and limited offensive game. Hawes won't be an upgrade defensively, but he is a much better offensive player and basically a wash as a rebounder. Hawes is a very good midrange shooter, who at least so far this season is 6-12 through three games this season, while also being a very good passer. As a backup center and floor spacer who can close out games for the Clippers, Hawes would be perfect. As a bonus he is an expiring contract that won't lock them up long term. As an added bonus Byron Mullens wouldn never have to play an important minute for them ever again. For the Sixers the goal is to get worse this season and acquire long-term talent or assets, both of which they would accomplish with this trade. Bullock, the 25th overall pick in the 2013 draft won't have a role on the team the Clippers year, not with Jared Dudley and J.J. Redick on the roster, but has some nice potential as a three-and-D wing, which would fit well next to Carter-Williams, Noel, and whoever they get in the draft (Wiggins, Randle, Parker) with that skill-set. The Clippers also have their 2014 first round pick to include in the deal. Another possibility would be a three team trade that sent Dudley to another team (say, the Pelicans) with a youn asset or two heading to Philly (say, Austin Rivers). In this case the Clippers get Hawes and Bullock steps into Dudley's minutes. 

Thaddeus Young to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Kendrick Perkins

While it is starting to become clear that he Thunder are going to stubbornly hold on to Kendrick Perkins, they could still try to deal him to a tanking team. With Steven Adams playing well so far, plus the ability to play Nick Collison and Serge Ibaka at center, and Hasheem Thabeet able to fill in at least an average level, the Thunder won't be hurt at center by losing Perkins, but would get a huge upgrade on offense and another scorer to balance out their offense even more. Young is a layup machine who can also more than hold his own defensively at both forward spots. He can play alongside Durant at the 4 or in place of him at the 3 and be a sixth man or a starter, a more effective version of what they hoped Jeff Green would be. The Sixers would be getting $8 million off the books a year earlier (Perkins has 2 years remaining, Young 3) and a strong locker room presence, but little on court value, which would suit them fine as they tank. The Thunder can also sweeten the deal with the like of Perry Jones, Andre Roberson, Grant Jerrett's rights, or the rights to German big man Tibor Pleiss or Spainish guard Alex Abrines. The Thunder will have to see what they can do with their current lineup, but acquiring Young at the expense of only Perkins would be a huge boost for them. 

  

Evan Turner to the San Antonio Spurs for Matt Bonner, Nando de Colo, and the rights to Davis Bertans
This is a very un-Spurs-like move, but it is fun to speculate about, and could actually be a need, as well as a piece for their future. Whether the Spurs are in the market for a wing will depend on if Marco Belinelli pans out or not, so far, so good but he a track record of inconsistency. Turner is the superior talent who is finally playing up to his draft status, and does a number things that the Spurs would like: he competes defensively, is a high IQ player, a good passer and rebounder. Most importantly however, Turner can hit corner threes (38% last season) and make plays, which will help ease the burden on Manu Ginobili. Despite his rep as a shooter, Belinelli was actually terrible from the corners last season (27%), and pales in comparison to Turner in the playmaking department (21.0 assist ratio to Belinelli's 16.2). This is a very unlikely scenario, but if the Spurs think Turner could help them return to the title game, or be a part of their post-Big 3 rebuild, then dealing for him is something they would have to explore. Bonner and de Colo could be replaced with a number of different contracts, but since they are both expiring contracts, they work the best in the deal. The prize for the Sixers is Bertans, a sharp-shooting 20-year old Latvian forward who was drafted in the second round of the 2012 draft. The Spurs also have a number of other prospects (Livio Jean-Charles, Ryan Richards) and picks they could use in a deal.

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Hot and Slow Starts

Because it is the beginning of the season, every little thing will be blown out of proportion by fans and unfortunately some media members as well. It isn't wise to take to much out of the beginning of the season, but it's also a bad idea to completely disregard everything you see...

Three teams that are expected to compete for a title got off to slow starts in their first game, with the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, and Los Angeles Clippers all lost their opening games. However, there isn't any reason for these teams to panic, as each one is incorporating new elements into their rotations. The Nets have five new rotation players while the Bulls and Clippers have three a piece, plus Brooklyn and L.A. have new coaches. Chicago struggled during the second quarter in which they were out scored by the Heat by 19, in large part because Jimmy Butler and Luol Deng got in foul trouble and new Bulls Mike Dunleavy and Tony Snell weren't quite on point with their rotations, particularly to the corners. Also Derrick Rose was clearly a little rusty, neither of these issues should last. The Nets on the other hand were tentative offensively, still figuring out how to play together together on that end. The absence of key reserve Andrei Kirilenko didn't help either. For the Clippers, there are signs that are a little more concerning but not dire, they were killed on the boards, including 18 offensive rebounds, and looked lackadaisical at times on both ends. Also, they were beaten by a Lakers team that was lost to Golden State by 31 the next night. However, I would be very surprised if they don't make a move for a big before the playoffs (Emeka Okafor when healthy?) and Doc Rivers should be able to instill some discipline in his young team. Bottom line is these are all very good teams and I see no reason why they shouldn't end up in the top 4 seeds in their respective conferences.

It was great to see the Kings still in Sacramento, with rowdy fans showing up en-masse to support their team on their way to an opening night win, thanks in large part to DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins registered 30 points (13-26 from the field, 4-7 from the line) 14 rebounds, a pair of steals and blocks, and an assist. Cousins has put up big numbers before, but he has rarely looked this good, showing off the whole repertoire on the block with hooks, drives, turnaround bank-shots, and one thunderous throwdown off his own miss. More importantly, he cut out bad jump shots, only shooting when he was wide open, and going 2-of-4 in that case. Perhaps most impressively, he played 39 minutes and still (mostly) brought effort on both ends. Cousins is supremely talented and if he can continue to play this way, Sacramento will be going in the right direction. I think it really helps having Greivis Vasquez playing alongside him. Vasquez played great and fit really well on the team, especially playing alongside Isaiah Thomas, the two combined for 33 points (on 11-18 from the field, 7-9 from the line, 4-6 from deep), and 9 assists to 4 turnovers, but most importantly they played good team basketball. Unfortunately, Marcus Thornton still had the blinders on and jacked up terrible shots, which was the norm in Sacramento in previous seasons, but really stood out against when, at least for one night, the Kings looked like a different team. Also, while he struggled offensively, I liked the way the Ben McLemore competed on the defensive end, which was an issue for him at Kansas. Once he is able to get going on offense, I would expect McLemore to move into the starting lineup with Thornton in a more logical bench role.

Michael Carter-Williams had a tremendous debut in the 76ers victory over the Heat, scoring 22 points (6-10 FG, 4-6 three point, 6-8 FT) with 7 rebounds, 12 assists, 1 turnover, and 9 steals. The boards, assists, and steals shouldn't be too big of a surprise (though nine is a lot, obviously), at 6-6 he can really see the floor and make things happen on defense. However, the offense and lack of turnovers are huge, if he can keep protecting the ball and continue to score somewhat efficiently, the future is very bright, because the rest of his game is there. 

The Detroit Pistons are going to make things very difficult for teams in the paint when they play Andre Drummond, Josh Smith, and Greg Monroe together. If they can keep a consistent offense and not foul too much, their defense could be really disruptive. 

Like the Bulls, Nets, and Clippers, the Pelicans are incorporating a lot of new pieces and while the talent and potential is evident, they need to work on their consistency and figure out how the 3 guard lineups are going to be working together. 

The Pacers, who beat New Orleans, who got big bench contributions in their first game, only mustered 10 points of the pine in this game, which will be something to monitor throughout the season, because the bench will be crucial for them in the playoffs after killing them last year. If Danny Granger returns to form, moving Lance Stephenson to the bench should help a lot.

The Thunder scored 101 points, but they only had 9 assists, including only one by Kevin Durant, who was really passing well in the pre-season. This offense is really going to struggle if they don't move the ball more. Russell Westbrook's return will help this immensely, but he is still out for a couple weeks. I would like to see Durant create a little more for his teammates, because without Westbrook they are really lacking ball movers. Note: shooting 33 free throws doesn't help assist totals, but the point still remains.

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