Five Breakout NBA players in 2017-18

After an offseason full of player movement, the start of the season means new opportunities for many players across the league. These five players not only have bigger roles waiting for them, but also the skills to take advantage and break out.

Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
This is the obvious one, Rodney Hood is sure to be all over breakout/most important player lists this preseason; it's clear that Hood needs to take a step forward for the Jazz to return to the playoffs. With Gordon Heyward gone, Hood is Utah's top remaining perimeter scorer and will be there go-to scoring option. It is important to note that Utah's egalitarian offense system won't feature a lot of iso situations, but no offense can rely completely on ball+player movement, there will plenty of times that individual shot creation will be required and Hood will probably lead the team in such opportunities. He won't replace Heyward 1-to-1, the Jazz will count on Ricky Rubio's passing, a Derrick Favors/Alec Burks health bounce-back, and rookie Donovan Mitchell to fill the void, but Hood will be the biggest piece in a group effort. For and foremost, health will be crucial for Hood, who has two seasons playing less than 60 games sandwiched between a nearly complete season of 79 games. Assuming health, Hood will need to not only sustain what he has been good at in the past but also develop his game to become more of a primary offensive option. Hood's strengths are obvious, he is a very good shooter from deep (.371 from three point range) and at 6-8 he has no trouble getting his shot off, while his patience running pick-and-roll allows him to be effective off the dribble without the burst normally associated with such actions. Where Hood needs to get better is inside the arc; his career fee throw rate (.196) and 2-point percentage are (.458) are well below average. Lacking that burst, Hood will need to hone his craft, using his size to finish over shorter players and become more active off the ball, getting easy shots at the basket via cuts and backscreens. Playing with more than willing passers like Rubio and Joe Ingles should allow Hood to get some easier looks, particularly on the break. Utah isn't a very fast-paced team (though that might change with Rubio) by Gordon Heyward excelled at leaking out ahead of the pack, something Hood should attempt to emulate. It's not that Hood is a lazy player by any means, but he can be somewhat low energy and not assertive hunting his own shot, which is exactly what the Jazz need of him. Also, in a contract year, Hood could really help his own financial situation with a big year, or tank it with a bad one.

Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
The Celtics traded away their two top perimeter defenders and replaced them with a decidedly bad defender (Kyrie Irving), an okay one (Marcus Morris) and a very good one (Gordon Heyward). Heyward and Morris should at least hold serve replacing Jae Crowder but Avery Bradley is a different story. Irving will slot into Isaiah Thomas' role as resident defensive sieve but without Bradley there to match-up on the opposing point guard, that duty will fall in crucial moments on Marcus Smart, who is up to the task on that end of the floor. Whether or not he can replace Bradley's offensive contributions is more of an open question. Smart's size, strength, and tenacity make him one of best, most versatile defender in the league, able to battle bigger players in the post while pestering on the perimeter with quick feet and hands. Despite his willingness to fire away 4+ three-pointers a game, Smart is a terrible three-point shooter (.291 career) and his .422 percentage on two-point shots is just as putrid (compare that with Avery Bradley's .390 and .504 marks, respectively, last season). At this point, defenses have little to fear by leaving him wide open outside the arc, something that will really hurt the Celtics in crunch time, which is exactly when they will need him on the floor. So how can he be successful? In his prime, Tony Allen couldn't shoot and would routinely flub wide-open layups, yet was a successful player for years. Obviously being one of the best perimeter defenders in NBA history helped (Smart is excellent but he isn't quite Allen's level) but that didn't sort out his offense. On that end, Allen was always hunting for easy shots for himself, crashing the glass, sprinting in transition, and was such a threat to cut to the basket that defenses had to pay attention to him even if he wasn't going to shoot. That's the template use for his success, work as hard off the ball offensively as he does on defense. And Smart, while still a really bad shooter, can get hot at times which means that he can take a three from time to time, when wide open, he just shouldn't be so shot happy from there. Like Hood, Smart is also in a contract year and has some financial incentive to be better than he has been.

Allen Crabbe, Brooklyn Nets
With Portland, Crabbe played a crucial role in the Blazers offensive when he was on the floor, spacing the floor for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, courtesy of a .444 shooting percentage from behind the arc. In Brooklyn, Crabbe will be performing a similar task for D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin. However, Russell and Lin are lower usage players than Lillard and McCollum, which should give Crabbe a chance to take even more three than the 3.8 he attempted per game last season. 73 players attemped more threes than Crabbe last season. As a member of the Nets last season, Bojan Bogdanovic attempted 5 threes a game, if Crabbe takes that many or more a game (last season he was at 3.8) and continues to make 40%+ from three, a breakout offensive performance is very possible. Brooklyn took the third most threes last season (more than Golden State believe it or not) and will look to shoot even more this season, a plan that suits Crabbe just fine. The other factor here is that Brooklyn has every incentive to play Crabbe starters minutes, as they just used much of their copious cap space in order to acquire him, and had attempted to get him in the past. More opportunities is often all that it takes for a NBA player to have breakout campaign.

Jerami Grant, Oklahoma City
As of now, the Thunder's backup center is Dakari Johnson, who might not even make the roster. Unless the Thunder find a veteran big man, they'll have to find someone to backup Steven Adams. While a 6-8, 210 pound forward like Jerami Grant might not seem like the prime option, but Grant's defensive potential as someone who can switch and block shots, is actually ideal for playing center in the modern NBA, especially against backup centers who aren't going to kill him in the post. In less advantageous matchups, say against a lumbering post scorer like Jahlil Okafor, Grant would be just as much of a matchup problem because of his ability to make straight line drives and passably shoot from three, skills that will play up as a center. Last season, Grant made .371 of his 144 three-point attempts, something he will look to keep up in his first full year with the Thunder, if not at that level at least at a passable 33-35%, which would be very good if he is playing at center. Likewise, Grant isn't a superb driver but is quick for his size and is a vicious finisher when he gets to the rim. As a backup center, playing with some combination of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, Grant will be asked to space the floor, attack closeouts, and finish lobs, all things he has shown the ability to do in the past. Defensively, Grant is one of the elite shot blockers in the NBA, finishing 11th in the NBA in block percentage (The Greek Freak is the only non-center ahead of him) so Grant has part of the big man skills down pat, though he will drastically need to improve as a rebounder in order to make it work at center. His 7.4 defensive rebound would rank second to last season among centers, besting only 35 year old, ground-bound Boris Diaw. Part of that poor number is the amount of time Grant spent playing small forward (and playing with high level rebounders that grabbed the boards instead) but no doubt he must improve to at least league average on the glass, an accomplishment that seems possible given his length and leaping ability. If Grant can stay a solid shooter and top level defender, while also improving his rebounding, a breakthrough to becoming one of the better backups in the NBA is definitely possible.

Norman Powell, Toronto Raptors
The Raptors roster has changed quite a bit over that last year, with players coming and going. Of the top ten per game minute getters last season, half of them are gone and their replacements are mostly unproven players. On the wing, the Raptors have presumed starters DeMar DeRozan and CJ Miles, then injured rookie OG Anunoby, still raw Bruno Caboclo, and multiple time castoff KJ McDaniels. These are the players Norman Powell is competing with for minutes. In fact it can be argued that Powell is the second best wing on the roster, ahead of Miles. Assuming there are 96 minutes available on the wing, DeRozan will take about 36 of them, leaving 60 minutes to be divided up among the rest. Whether it be from 25 to 30 minutes a game, Powell is sure to see a boost in minutes from the 18 a game he averaged last season. And honestly, as far as talent is concerned, playing time may be all that Powell needs to break out. Despite being relatively short for a wing, Powell is strongly built and has long arms to challenge bigger, stronger players defensively. Offensively, his jumper could stand to be more consistent, he is somewhat streaky, but where Powell stands out is his ability to beat defenders off the dribble and make plays going towards the basket. Powell took 41% of his shots withing 0-3 feet of the basket and made an excellent .606% of those shots. Given his ability defensively and a solid outside stroke, Powell should be the first player off the bench in Toronto, if not the starter by season's end.

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Toronto Raptors Draft Review

Current Roster
PG: Cory Joseph/Delon Wright/Fred VanVleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan/Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll/OG Anunoby*
PF: Pascal Siakam/Bruno Caboclo
C: Jonas Valanciunas/Lucas Nogueira
*When healthy

2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
G Kyle Lowry
C Serge Ibaka
F Patrick Patterson
F PJ Tucker

Restricted
None

Who They Drafted
1-23 OG Anunoby, SF/PF Indiana
The Raptors got a player many had projected as a lottery pick but who fell because of a knee injury and concerns about his offensive abilities. Anunoby is an elite defensive prospect, with long arms, strength, and (before the injury at least) tremendous all-around athletic ability. Anunoby could potentially guard all five positions, including point guards (see his defensive performace against Jamal Murray) and centers, once he bulks up a little more, he's already weighs in the 230s and could another 10-20 pounds easily. Where the question marks begin are his offense. Anunoby is an explosive finisher at the rim but needs an open lane or a shot created by someone else to get there. As a shooter, Anunoby made .365% of his career 74 college threes, but only shoot .311% in his last season and is a bad free throw shooter as well (career .522%) so there are serious worries that he'll never be a shooter or offensive threat in general. However, if Anunoby can become even a 34% three point shooter at a minimum, he'll be one of the best 3-and-D players in the league, though that is where his upside likely ends. Even if he can't shoot, Anunoby could still carve out a Luc Richard Mbah a Moute-like career due to his high level defense. For years the Raptors have been looking for a guy to defend the LeBron James' (or even the Joe Johnson's and Paul Pierce's) of the world, but have been unable to find that guy. Anunoby really could be that guy, unfortunately his arrival is coinciding with perhaps the closing of the Raptors window.

What They Need Going Forward
The Raptors need to figure out if they're going to continue to go for it or are going to start a soft rebuild. If the former, then bringing back Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka are priorities, if the latter then they'd probably want to move on and look to trade Jonas Valanciunas and maybe even DeMar DeRozan. They'll also probably be looking for depth signings on the wing and at guard, where a Kyle Lowry departure would really mess with their team structure.

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2016 NBA Mock Lottery (4/16)

Mock drafts prior to the reveling of the actual lottery and draft order are pretty silly, but since usually the changes are minor, we can at least gain a little insight into what things will look like on draft night and what teams may be thinking. This is what I believe, without any inside information, is most likely to happen at this exact moment subject to massive changes before draft night.

01. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons, PF LSU

Prior to Sam Hinkie's resignation, Brandon Ingram would have been the obvious choice here, however with Bryan Collangelo now in charge with presumably a mandate to make the Sixers competitive and marketable fast, it seems highly likely they will look to draft a more hyped, popular player who may be more ready to contribute from day one. Simmons is a poor fit, in my opinion, but with conventional wisdom now reigning once again in Philadelphia, Simmons seems likely to be the guy.

02. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Ingram, SF Duke

While they may be more interested in landing a quote star un-quote in the draft, Ingram is a much more obvious fit in LA, where the Lakers are severely lacking in both defensive players and shooters. Ingram also doesn't overlap positionaly with Julius Randle like Simmons would. If the lottery holds true and it goes Sixers #1 and Lakers #2, I would expect LA to draft whomever Philadephia doesn't draft between  Ingram and Simmons and be completely happy with that.

03. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn): Jaylen Brown, SF California

This is the toughest pick to project, based on currant draft standing, because Boston is playoff team without a ton of obvious needs (excluding a true super-star, which you most likely aren't finding in this draft) so where do they go? Dragan Bender is the best prosper available (and the best in the draft, in my opinion) but he isn't a player likely to have an immediate impact and might not even come to the NBA right away. Add to that, the Celtics are sort of piled up in the frontcourt. Jaylen Brown, on the other hand, is also somewhat of a project but fits into the Celtics multiple offense and would be an intruiging 1-2 forward punch with Jae Crowder which would allow Boston to switch everything and be and even more threatening transition team. They could also trade the pick and throw everything off.

04. Phoenix Suns: Dragan Bender, PF Maccabi Tel Aviv

A couple of wins late in the season dropped the Suns from the third best odds to the fourth, which could be the difference between getting one of the top tier of three prospects and not. In this scenario, if Boston is unwilling to take a project in Dragan Bender, the Suns could still luck out. After trading Markeiff Morris and now potentially losing Mirza Teletovic and Jon Leuer (backups at best) power forward is an area of longterm weakness in Phoenix. Bender is a stupendous prospect with special potential as a defender and the tools to become a versatile offensive player, just what Phoenix needs.

05. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jamal Murray, SG Kentucky

Aside from power forward, the Timberwolves have their starting five set (barring a Ricky Rubio trade) and with no power forward that really fits this draft range, they can look to something else they need: shooting and shot creation. Murray is an excellent shooter and while the jury may be out on his ability to consistently create at the next level, he has a good offensive feel and may fit better in the NBA where more space is available. If they trade Ricky Rubio, Kris Dunn could be and option, and if they believe a power forward is necessary, a versatile offensive player like Henry Ellenson could be an interesting fit with Karl-Anthony Towns.

06. New Orleans Pelicans: Kris Dunn, PG Providence

While Jrue Holiday, point guard, is one of New Orleans' two actually good players under contract, both he and Kris Dunn are big enough and have the defensive chops to defend shooting guards (in fact, Dunn is actually bigger than Eric Gordon) and Holiday can shoot well enough to make this pair work. Dunn is a great defenive prospect, a killer in transition, and a willing half-court player that should flourish as a third option in the more spacious NBA. Buddy Hield, as a more traditional shooting guard, is another option, as is a potential Ryan Anderson replacement in Henry Ellenson.

07. Denver Nuggets (from New York): Henry Ellenson, PF Marquette

The Nuggets have a ton of big men, but none of their power forwards are particularly skilled offensively (unless you include Danillo Gallinari who is injured often and possibly trade-bait). Henry Ellenson is a versatile offensive player with potential as a three-point shooter. He is a project defensively, but Mike Malone is known to get the best out of such players. They have depth in most spots on their roster and could go in many ways but Ellenson makes a lot of sense as a compliment to Kenneth Faried at power forward.

08. Sacramento Kings: Buddy Hield, SG Oklahoma

This is a marriage of player and team that just needs to happen. Hield could (foolishly) go earlier but if he is there, or if the Kings can acquire him by trade, it is something that would be perfect for them both on and off the court. Hield is exactly the type of player Sacramento needs, a knockdown three point shooter that is terrific moving off the ball. He is also a high character individual and tireless worker, the type of leader that the Kings desperately need. Make it happen, Vlade Divac (but don't give up too much)

09. Toronto Raptors (from Denver): Marquese Chriss, PF Washington

The Raptors love taking high-upside projects, and while their thinking may change this picking this high, I doubt it. Marquese Chriss, with work, could seriously be their starting power forward of the future, something they aren't particularly set up with at this point. Chriss has the potential to be a dynamite offensive player that can shoot and drive. He is a raw player that very much needs to learn the game, but the tools are off the charts.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Jakob Poeltl, C Utah

Another perfect marriage of player/team. Since they made the change from Zaza Pachulia to Greg Monroe, the Bucks haven't been the same team. The need someone who an excell on the defensive glass, protect the rim, and set good screens, which are all areas that Poeltl could excel at. Monroe, if he isn't traded, could still be gone after next season, which would open the door for Poeltl full time. Last season, Milwaukee brought Monroe of the bench and started Miles Plumlee. Poeltl could do the same, and be much better than Plumlee.

11. Orlando Magic: Ivan Rabb, PF California

The Magic have big plans when it comes to adding free agents this summer, so they could trade this pick to save space or draft a stash prospect, however if they do go with a prospect that could play this year for them, power forward is an area they could address. Aaron Gordon is already blossoming into a star, but Jason Smith also played heavy minutes last season as his backup, which translates to you need another backup power forward, particularly since Smith is a free agent this summer. Ivan Rabb is a very solid player, smart and skilled. He is limit in some ways, but should be a good option for rebounding, defense, and some inside-out scoring off the bench.

12. Utah Jazz: Demetrius Jackson, PG Norte Dame

Even if Dante Exum returns to full strength next season, Utah will still need a point guard because the poo-poo platter of Shelvin Mack, Raul Neto, and Trey Burke just isn't going to cut it for a playoff team, especially if Exum (who has a ways to go himself) isn't back to full-strength. Demetrius Jackson is better than all those other options, a dynamic athlete that has a long track record of excellent outside shooting and tough defense. He could backup Exum or play alongside him, due to Exum's excellent size. Utah needs a point guard that can create, defend, and shoot, not just one of those things.

13. Phoenix Suns (from Washington): Timothe Luwawu, SF Mega Leks

With their second first round pick in the draft, the Suns can look to shore up another area of need, small forward (or power forward if they draft, say, Jaylen Brown with their earlier pick). With what appears to be three high-usage guards on the roster, the Suns need players to go with them that don't need the ball to be valueable. Timothe Luwawu looks to be that type of player, a versatile defensive wing with potential in that area as well as shooting the ball, where he has made great strides of late, however his low release is still somewhat of a question mark.

14. Chicago Bulls: Denzel Valentine, SG Michigan State

This seems like the kind of pick the Bulls seem to like. A decorated four year college player that can probably play very soon in his young career. Denzel Valentine is not without his faults (defense) but he seems like an ideal fit in Fred Hoiberg's offense because he is a knockdown shooter with tremendous vision and passing ability. Another option is fellow Spartan Deyonta Davis, who could be the first step in rebuilding the beleaguered Bulls frontcourt, once a source of so much depth, not possibly losing both Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah. The same could be said about Domantas Sabonis, who is the kind of skilled player that could excel under Hoiberg.

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2015 Draft Review: Toronto Raptors

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Kyle Lowry/Delon Wright

SG: DeMar DeRozan/Terrence Ross/Norman Powell

SF: DeMarre Carroll/Bruno Caboclo

PF: Patrick Patterson/James Johnson

C: Jonas Valenciunas/Lucas Nogueira

2015 Free Agents

SF Landry Fields

PF Tyler Hansbrough

C Chuck Hayes

PF Amir Johnson

C Greg Steimsma 

G Lou Williams

What They Did On Draft Night

Drafted Utah point guard Delon Wright 20th Overall

After trading Greivis Vasquez, the Raptors needed a backup point guard and had the chance to select one that complimented Kyle Lowry better while also improving the team's biggest weakness. Delon Wright can legitimately play point guard, but has the size to defend wings meaning he can play alongside Lowry as well, relieving some of Toronto's reliance on his playmaking and hopefully keeping him from wearing down. Wright is also an excellent defender, a huge upgrade over what Vasquez offered on that end, that should help improve the Raptor's defense when he is on the floor. Wright is 23, so basically a finished product, but ready to play basically right away and could form a nice second unit backcourt combo with Terrence Ross, who compliments Wright's one big weakness: shooting.

Traded Greivis Vasquez to Milwaukee for Norman Powell and a 2016 conditional first-round pick

Getting a first round pick of any kind for a backup on an expiring deal is a good move, especially when you have a ready made replacement that fits you team better available to you in the draft. Toronto also got back the draft rights to the 46th pick, which the used on Norman Powell. The idea behind drafting Powell is similar to that of Wright: find more creators that can get to the rim and take some pressure off of Kyle Lowry. Powell also somewhat duplicates what Lou Williams brought to the team, so if he departs in free agency, Toronto at least has a creative scorer type to try as a potential replacement.

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2015 Draft Preview: Toronto Raptors

2015-16 Depth Chart

PG: Kyle Lowry/Greivis Vasquez

SG: DeMar DeRozan

SF: Terrence Ross/James Johnson/Bruno Caboclo

PF: Patrick Patterson

C: Jonas Valenciunas/Lucas Nogueira

2015 Free Agents

SF Landry Fields

PF Tyler Hansbrough

C Chuck Hayes

PF Amir Johnson

C Greg Steimsma 

G Lou Williams

2015 Draft Picks

1-20

Team Needs

Toronto is one of the most interesting teams this offseason because they have a number of free agents and could conceivably not re-sign any of them. Their rotation could look dramatically different from last season, starting with this pick. Point guard is settled and Toronto has a good trio of wings, but their frontcourt is seriously shallow, even if you consider James Johnson a power forward. To make matters worse, Jonas Valanciunas' development has stalled some, creating even more doubt for the future of the position. What type of player Toronto targets is a bigger question mark, do they go for a more offensive-minded player and double-down on their strengths from last season? Or target a strong defender that can help improve their biggest weakness? Because they frequently employ a shooting guard that can't shoot, spacing is ever at a premium for the Raptors so a power forward that can shoot is important, though that is Patrick Patterson current role. 

Potential Fits

Trey Lyles of Kentucky fits that mold of a stretch-four, at least in theory, he really struggled shooting the ball last season. Lyles has the size to play center occasionally, but not the defensive chops and will probably struggled defensively at power forward too. Lyles is a smart player that plays hard, but Toronto would be banking on his shooting developing. There is risk certainly, but at this point in the draft the upside would be worth it. If Christian Wood of UNLV makes it to this pick, he would also be an interesting option because he has similar shooting upside, but a much more athletic profile. Louisville's Montrezl Harrell is defensively ready to contribute and compliments Patterson nicely, however he won't help spacing much. 

Mock Draft

20. Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville

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Toronto Raptors Draft Review

20. Bruno Caboclo, SF Brazil (6-9, 200)

The biggest shock of the draft, the Raptors went way off the radar to take who they hope will be the next Giannis Antetokounmpo. Caboclo has a long ways to go, even longer than Giannis, but there is certainly enough here that warranted him being drafted, so what difference does it make if it was at 20 or 37? Was it a reach? Sure, but if I pans out then it won't matter, and if it doesn't will Toronto really be killing themselves that they didn't take Rodney Hood instead? Caboclo is intruiging because he is young, big, athletic and plays like a guard, which will always get foolish Kevin Durant comparisons. He is coming to play in the Summer League and is sure to be one of the most watched players there.

37. DeAndre Daniels, SF Connecticut Jr. (6-9, 196)

While Caboclo is a long way away from his ceiling, DeAndre Daniels is close to his. Daniels is tall, long, and for at least one season, could really shoot. He doesn't add much else, though his length helps him block a lot of shots and he could be a good defender if he gets stronger. Similar to Austin Daye, who was sunk by his lack of a position and inconsistent shooting. If Daniels solves those problems, he could be a nice bench piece for Toronto, if not he'll bounce around like Daye has.

Projected Lineup

PG: Kyle Lowry (UFA)/Lou Williams

SG: Terrence Ross/Landry Fields

SF: DeMar DeRozan/DeAndre Daniels

PF: Amir Johnson/Tyler Hansbrough

C: Jonas Valanciunas/Chuck Hayes

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