Wednesday, December 19, 2012

NBA Draft: Underrated Prospects

Doug McDermott, SF Creighton Jr. (6-8, 210)
When it comes to Doug McDermott, you'll hear all the classic knocks: he's just a great college player, he isn't athletic enough, his game won't translate, it's against lower level teams. But instead of trying to look at what McDermott can't do, look at what he can do: he's big, a legit 6-8, an outstanding shooter, an incredibly efficient scorer (60% from the field as a Sophomore), a good rebounder who plays really hard and a coaches son with a high basketball IQ. McDermott compares favorably to another great Creighton player, 9 year NBA vet Kyle Korver. Both have similar size and length, and though Korver is known as one of the best shooters in the league, McDermott has shot the ball better from 3 at the same point in their careers. McDermott is also a much more well rounded offensive player who can score in the post, from mid-range and on the drive. Both McDermott and Korver are average athletes, but Korver has made himself into a good team defender due to his effort and smarts, McDermott could easily do the same at the next level. Will he be close to the scorer he is in College, most likely not, but he could be a great shooter, high effort player who can also post up small players. Any team picking late in the first should absolutely consider McDermott, he'll make any second unit better.

Anthony Bennett, PF UNLV Fr. (6-8, 240)
If Anthony Bennett were 2 inches taller, he'd probably be the favorite to be the top overall pick. However, because he is undersized, height-wise, Bennett will be a controversial prospect who likely ends up in the lottery but lower than his talent dictates. Why is Bennett's height not really a big deal? Because height doesn't matter that much in the NBA; length and athleticism do and Bennett has those in spades. He's has a confirmed 7-1 wingspan, which is more than good enough for the NBA and is longer than Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, David Lee, Marcus Morris, and Dante Cunningham, all of whom have average or better PERs for power forwards. As for athleticism, you only need to watch Bennett to see that he's a very explosive player with NBA strength to overpower opponents  In addition to that physical ability, Bennett is also a good shooter who should develop NBA 3 point range. His game compares well to Paul Millsap, though Bennett is a more explosive athlete and a better shooter at this point in their careers


Isaiah Canaan, PG Murrey State Sr. (6-0, 195)
Much like Doug McDermott, Isaiah Canaan will suffer in the eyes of talent evaluaters because he plays at a smaller school and doesn't have elite tangible tools. Canaan makes up for it with a great skillset. First and foremost, Canaan is a tremendous shooter; he's never shot below 40% from deep in 4 seasons at Murrey State and he's a career 44% three point shooter. He's also show he ability to score from other places on the floor, but his bread and butter in the NBA will be three point shooting. Canaan is also a good ball handler and defender who plays very hard. Truth be told, Canaan is 2 guard in the body of a small point guard, but his ability to shoot could find him a spot in the NBA as a back up point in the mold of C.J. Watson, who will fit well next to a big point guard like Ricky Rubio or a ball handling 2 like James Harden. Canaan is a likely a second round pick, but given how many teams are terrible at shooting the ball in the NBA, (14 teams shoot less than 35%) Canaan could easily earn a spot on a team.  

2013 NBA Mock Lottery (12/19)

Nerlens Noel and Alex Len
1. Washington Wizards: Nerlens Noel, C Kentucky Fr. (6-11, 215)
The Wizards are a mess; highly paid offseason acquisitions Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor are having the worst seasons of their careers while John Wall has yet to play a game and Nene is hobbled. If the Wizards get the number 1 overall pick, they'll have their choice of a big man or Shabazz Muhammad. Nerlens Noel makes the most sense for the Wizards because he'll be a good fit with Wall and Nene while anchoring Washington's defense. Noel is raw on offense but has the potential to be a monster defensive player who blocks shots (3.9 bpg this season), gets steals, (2.8 spg), rebound (9 rpg), and defend inside and out.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers: Shabazz Muhammad, G/F UCLA Fr. (6-6, 225)
Two years in a row, the Cavaliers have reached for prospects and the results have been mixed for both Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson. This draft, they have options, especially if Anderson Varejao is traded. If Varejao is gone, Cody Zeller and Alex Len will be in the mix with Shabazz Muhammad. The cupboard is very bare on the wing for Cleveland (Luke Walton gets playing time), so Muhammad would provide a huge upgrade as well as an All-Star upside to pair with Kyrie Irving. At his best, a dominating physical and athletic force, Muhammad isn't at 100% yet this season, but he's still be averaging 17.3 points a game with a very good 48%/47%/75% slash line.

3. New Orleans Hornets: Alex Poythress, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-7, 215)
Alex Poythress
The Hornets have a log jam in their frontcourt with Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, and Robin Lopez, so instead of taking Alex Len or Cody Zeller they address their second biggest need with a wing player in Alex Poythress. Michael Carter-Williams is a possibility here, as the Hornets have a huge need at point guard. However, Poythress has huge upside and is an elite athlete that is always in attack mode and could be an elite defender.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto): Alex Len, C Maryland So. (7-1, 225)
The Thunder received this draft pick as part of the James Harden trade, provided the Raptors finish outside the top 3 in the lottery. If the Thunder get this pick and are able to take either Alex Len or Cody Zeller, giving them a legitimate post player, they'll have the most explosive, versatile offense in the NBA. Len can do it all from the 5 position on both ends of the floor, scoring inside and out, passing, rebounding, and blocking shots.

5. Charlotte Bobcats: Cody Zeller, C Indiana So. (6-11, 220)
The Bobcats have a strong defensive player big man in Bismack Biyombo, but after that they have nothing, Byron Mullins is an awful player, Brendan Haywood has nothing left in the tank, and Tyrus Thomas is best off the bench. Cody Zeller has fit issues and he isn't overly long or explosive, so I think the talk of top overall pick, or even the top 3 is fading/ However, he still has a lot of skills and can really run the floor, which fits the Bobcats uptempo style. He'll also fit well next to the physical defense of Biyombo.

Otto Porter
6.  Detroit Pistons: Otto Porter, SF Georgetown So. (6-8, 200)
The Pistons are set at power forward and center with Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond, while they have a lot invested in backcourt mates Brandon Knight and Rodney Stuckey. With Tayshaun Prince likely on the way out via a trade, Detroit will be looking for a new wing player. Otto Porter has a lot of skills and Detroit has had a lot of success with Georgetown players. I worry about Porter's ability to be a go to offensive player because he doesn't draw a lot of fouls, but as a Nicolas Batum type player, he has a lot of value.

7.  Sacramento Kings: Michael Carter-Williams, PG Syrcause So. (6-6, 185)
The Sacramento Kings have one of the worst constructed rosters you'll ever see, they need to trade as many of their current players as they can. One of the biggest issues is that just about everyone on this team is a shoot first player who wants the ball in their own hands. Michael Carter-Williams is the best passer in college basketball, he loves to set up teammates and will be able to run a team at the next level. He also has upside as a scorer, but right off the bat he'll brings so much needed unselfishness to the Kings.
Rudy Gobert

8. Phoenix Suns: Archie Goodwin, SG Kentucky Fr. (6-5, 195)
The cupboard is pretty bare in the Phoenix backcourt, Goran Dragic is a very good point guard, but Shannon Brown is a third guard and after him they've got nothing. Archie Goodwin is best suited to play shooting guard, but he's got enough point guard skills to play that position on a limited basis. As a 2, he's a great athlete who's impossible to stay in front of and can really fill it up from all over the floor. He's a little wild at times, but the comparisons to a young Russell Westbrook aren't totally crazy.

9. Orlando Magic: Rudy Gobert, F/C France (7-1, 220)
The Magic's roster is a difficult to evaluate because they have a lot of interesting pieces, but no one who is set in stone as a building block. Rudy Gobert is a top 3 physical talent, with great size, athleticism, and a 7-9 wingspan. He's a really good rebounder and shot blocker, but he also has questions about offense and teams seem to be more wary of European prospects theses days. Gobert has a chance to be a cornerstone piece for Orlando, but he also carries less than significant risk.

Anthony Bennett
10. Los Angeles Lakers:  Anthony Bennett, PF UNLV Fr. (6-8, 230)
The Lakers aren't likely to end up in the top ten, or even the lottery, but it's not impossible and if they do they'll be targetting players that will thrive playing for Mike D'Antoni and can contribute without a ton of touches. Anthony Bennett is getting better and better as a shooter and should be above average from 3 for a big man soon. He's also a high motor player who can rebound and block shots with a high upside.

11. Dallas Mavericks: Marcus Smart, PG Oklahoma State Fr. (6-4, 225)
The Mavericks have had problems at point guard all season, with Darren Collison disappointing and Derek Fisher of all players starting and playing 25 minutes a game. Marcus Smart is a big, physical, explosive athlete who is still learning the point guard position, but it so intelligent, tough, and hardworking that combined with his physical tools, he can become a starting point guard who makes a whole team better.

12. Portland Trailblazers: Isaiah Austin, PF Baylor Fr. (7-0, 215)
The Trailblazers are in an interesting position, they've got young talent, both proven and unproven at all 5 positions, so right now they're drafting for depth and upside. Isaiah Austin certainly has upside, as he's super skilled and very long and athletic. He can do everything on the floor on both ends, but teams have big questions about his fit and style of play have pushed him down.
Ben McLemore

13. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben McLemore, SG Kansas Fr. (6-5, 195)
Philadelphia has struggle offensively this season and part of the reason is the losses of Andre Igoudala and Lou Williams. Ben McLemore, who could be a top 5-10 pick easily by the end of the season, is kind of a combo of Williams and Igoudala. He's a big, athletic guard with tremendous defensive potential, but he can be an explosive scorer from all over the floor.

14. Houston Rockets: Mason Plumlee, PF Duke Sr. (6-10, 230)
The Rockets have so many young players, they really need to try to trade this pick for a veteran. If they can't  find a deal, they'll be best served just taking the best player available. Given how much offense the Rockets get from their perimeter, it makes sense to surround them with high motor, athletic players. Mason Plumlee is an athletic rebounder and defender who can finish around the rim, but also lacks huge upside. A safe, if lower upside pick.


Monday, November 19, 2012

NBA Draft: Stock Mixed

1. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia
For someone with a reputation as a great shooter, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been consistently poor, shooting just 30% from 3 as a Freshman and is just 13-for-40 from deep this season. Despite these consistently poor results, he's still taking a whopping 10 threes a game. That's a big problem for Caldwell-Pope, his shot selection has been awful, gunning away early in the clock. The problem is that without a jumpshot, Caldwell-Pope doesn't bring much else to the table; he's a good but unspectacular defender and nothing special as a rebounder, passer, or ball handler. Unless he can find his stroke, and taking better shots will help that, Caldwell-Pope isn't a legitimate draft prospect right now.

2. Nerlens Noel, Archie Goodwin, and Alex Poythress, Kentucky
Looking at their numbers so far this year, you'd think that the top three Kentucky Freshmen were dominating, but in fact they've been up and down. Poythress struggled against Maryland and dominated Duke and Lafayette while Goodwin and Noel have had some good moments and some bad in every game. Poythress might be the best prospect of the bunch, he simply needs to learn to harness all his energy and athleticism and play with a plan, because his reckless aggressiveness has led to fouls and turnovers as well as spectacular plays. Goodwin is adjusting to playing more point guard and should improve over the course of the season as he learns to balance his own scoring and making teammates better. Noel has been solid on defense, but he's still adjusting to the improved strength, speed, and skill of the college game on that end. Offensively, he's got a ways to go, but that's nothing new. Overall, none of these players have hurt their standing much, and Poythress may have helped his, but as other prospect rise, they need to keep improving.

3. Cody Zeller, Indiana
After dominating two cupcakes, Cody Zeller struggled against the first real team Indiana played, Georgia. Zeller finished with only just 6 points and 4 boards in 27 minutes of action, even more trouble some were the 4 turnovers. When Zeller tried to beat his opponent with footwork, he traveled and when he tried to use power, he was called for an offensive foul. It's only one bad game and I'm sure Zeller will bounce back, but if he wants to be a number 1 overall pick, there can't be many more of these type of games for Zeller. Scouts are already not sold on Zeller as a top pick because he lacks big upside and doesn't dominate in any particular aspect of the game.

4. Adonis Thomas, Memphis
Thomas has been solid scoring the ball in Memphis' first two games, averaging 12 points on 50% shooting. However, after all the hype that he's got a legit 3 point shot, Thomas is 0-for-5 from deep. More disconcerting is Thomas' lack of rebounding; last seasons 3.2 a game seemed like a fluke for the athletic, physical 6-7, 230 pound forward, but he's only grabbing 3 a game, including a goose egg in 39 minutes of play against Samford. He's also only blocked 1 shot in 60 minutes this season. Thomas needs to show he's actually improved his shooting and make more athletic plays on the boards and on defense if he wants to be a lottery pick.

5. C.J. Leslie and Lorenzo Brown, North Carolina State
After cruising to three easy wins, North Carolina State got punched in the face by Oklahoma State and lost by 20. Two of the biggest reasons for the loss were C.J. Leslie (2 points, 1-for-5 shooting, 5 fouls) and Lorenzo Brown (6 points, 2-for-9 shooting, 7 turnovers), the Wolfpack's two leaders. Both are potential first round picks, but any more performances against good teams like this and that will change quickly. Leslie needs to continue to be aggressive while also improving his shot selection while Brown needs learn how to control an offense better and not turn the ball over as much.

NBA Draft: Stock Up

1. Alex Len, Maryland

After a much hyped, mostly disappointing rookie season, Ukrainian big man Alex Len is having the kind of impact many expected last year. In hindsight, it isn't surprising, European players usually have a transition period, especially 18 year old's coming to America for the first time. However, if players can make that transition they are usually in for breakout years because they're used to the style of play and can bring all their skills to the forefront. It also helps Len that he has a much more talented team playing around him and doesn't have a ball-hog like Terrell Stoglin shooting the ball every time down the court. For Len, the game seems to have slowed down and he's able to use his size (7-1, 225), length and high skill level to score inside and out. On the defensive end, Len has also improved; he was always mobile and athletic for his size, but now he understands where to be and has the awareness to get there on time. Len had his coming out party against Nerlens Noel and Kentucky when he 23 points, 12 boards, and 4 blocks. He doesn't have to keep putting up numbers like that, but if he continues to play the same aggressive, smart, skillful game he'll be a lock for the top 10 if not higher.

2. Isaiah Austin, Baylor
Most likely due to the disappointing Baylor careers by Perry Jones III and Quincy Miller, Isaiah Austin seemed to have pretty low expectations for a top 5 recruit. After his first 4 games however, expectations might be raised because Austin has been very impressive so far. The 7-footer Austin has shown his unique skills so far this year, averaging 14.8 points and 9 rebounds while shooting 53% from the field and 40% from 3. What's more impressive is how Austin has been playing, on offense he's been scoring from the inside and out, scoring over defenders or making athletic plays above the rim while on defense he's defended well and averaged a rebound every 3 minutes. Oddly, though he's been a tremendous shotblocker, he's only blocked 2 shots in 4 games, but I'd expect that to change soon. The scary thought is that Austin is still just a Freshman early in his career and figuring out how to translate his skill-set to the college game. Give him a little time and look out.

3. Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
After being buried on the depth chart for his Freshman season, the uber-talented Michael Carter-Williams is the starting point guard for Syracuse and has taken the role and run with it. Through two games, Carter-Williams is averaging an impressive 11.5 points, 5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1.5 blocks and a whopping 4 steals over two games. For MCW it's not a case of skills, he's a long, athletic 6-6 point guard who can shoot from deep, drive the ball, see the floor and make plays on defense; it's just a matter of getting experience after only playing 10 minutes a game last season. That playing time will likely triple this season and MCW will get the experience he needs to learn how to run a team and harness all his immense talent into one, lottery bound packege.

4. Marcus Smart and Le'Bryan Nash, Oklahoma State
No team has been more impressive this season than Oklahoma State. After struggling to beat a good Akron team, OSU dominated two tournament teams in Tennessee and #6 ranked North Carolina State. The Cowboys success can be linked to two things: the arrival of Freshman guard Marcus Smart and the improvement of Sophomore Le'Bryan Nash. Last season, Nash came into the year with a lot of hype, but only had an average season and struggled in many games, this season he's playing much more aggressive and using his 6-7, 230 pound frame and explosive athleticism to attack the basket and get to the line a remarkable 11 times, where he is converting at 86%. Nash is also rebounding and defending well too. For Smart, the key to his rise in stock has been playing the point this year, coming in as a freshman most figured Smart would be playing shooting guard. Smart is an explosive, physical guard with great size for a point guard at 6-4, 225 but would be undersized at the two so playing the point would be huge for his stock. The fit works, Smart is a really good ballhandler and drive and dish player, he simply needs to learn run an offense, but that will come with time. If you're looking for the next Russell Westbrook, this may be it. Smart has put up a Westbrook-esque line of 15.3 points, 8 boards, 5 assists, 3 steals and 1.5 blocks a game.



5. Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky
The most unheralded of the Kentucky Freshman, Willie Cauley-Stein has been the most consistent performer for the Wildcats. He hasn't gotten a ton of minutes, just 19.3 a game, but when he's played he's shown a good motor combined with a 7-0, 220 pound, long and athletic frame. Cauley-Stein was a late bloomer in High School who split time between football and basketball (how about a guy that size playing wide receiver?) but just about every time he stepped on the floor he made improvements. The offense has a ways to go, but Cauley-Stein has good hands and given the rate of improvement so far for him, plus the physicality coming from football, there's a good chance that the offense comes. If he continues gradual improvement while also playing hard and defending, there's a good chance Cauley-Stein ends up a first rounder in 2013, but if he comes back for another year and gets more minutes, the lottery or higher are possible.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Breakout NBA players

Atlantic Division: Avery Bradley, Celtics
Bradley is still recovering from shoulder surgery and probably won't be back until mid-December, but when he does he should be inserted right into the starting lineup. Bradley played limited minutes, but in the last month of the season he played 33 minutes and averaged 15 points a game on 52% shooting while playing some of the most tenacious defense in the league. Like seriously, this guy is already one of the best wing defenders in the league, he'll provides relentless ball pressure and is very hard to beat of the dribble with fast hands to pick up steals. If Bradley, with his motor and cutting ability can get Boston 2 or 3 easy shots a game and he continues to improve as a shooter, especially from the corner, and as ball handler, he'll be one of the better 2 guards in the league, his defense is that good.

Central Division: Tristan Thompson, Cavaliers
The 4 overall pick in the draft had an up and down season, combining powerful dunks and big blocks with bricked free throws and poor turnovers. Thompson was a tremendous rebounder (especially offensively, where he averaged 3.1 a game) and played some pretty solid defense, while drawing fouls in bunches (almost 5 FTA a game) and converting close to the basket. All of those things should continue, but he needs to improve on his shooting and post play. Thompson shot poorly from the outside and even worse from the line (55%). If Thompson can improve that to 65%-70% while taking smarter, closer shots and waiting to be set up by teammates instead of force action, he could become a solid starter due to his other abilities.

Southeast: Nikola Vucevic, Magic
The Magic didn't get much for Dwight Howard, but one of the young pieces they got back has a chance to become a decent NBA starter, and since he's a center, that means Nikola Vucevic will be a valuable NBA player. With Dwight Howard gone and the only other true center on the Magic roster being a second round pick, Nikola Vucevic should get a lot more playing time than he did in Philadelphia. If Vucevic gets more playing time, he really needs only to become more consistent, polish out his game, and go into the post more. Vucevic is a very good rebounder and can hit an outside jumper, with even 3-point range, but he needs to spend more time in the post. Being on an Orlando team with a bunch of other jump shooters will hopefully cause Vucevic to go into the post more, which will open up the rest of his game and increase his efficiency as a shooter.

Pacific Division: Goran Dragic, Suns
Goran Dragic perhaps had his breakout season last year, but it was only for the last month of the season, and given Dragic's up-and-down nature, he'll have to do it consistently for a full season to take the next step. The reason Dragic had success in Houston last season was that played in a system that suited him: a system that gave him the ball, played up-tempo, and let him make all the plays. Luckily for Dragic, he's now in Phoenix which plays the same type of system, heavy on pick and roll and surrounding Dragic with shooters. The key to consistency for him is to cut down on the turnovers and continue to shoot well from 3. If Dragic can keep players from going under screens on the pick and roll, he should be able to pick opponents apart in a Steve Nash-lite type of way.

Southwest Division: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
My original choice for the Southwest Division breakout player was Chandler Parsons, but given the fact that the Rockets just added another ballhandler/scorer in James Harden, I don't think Parsons will get enough usage to be the player he can be given the opportunity. Kawhi Leonard is another likely breakout candidate for two reasons: talent and opportunity. First, the talent: Leonard is a big, strong wing player with long arms, huge hands, and explosive athleticism, because of that he's a very good rebounder and finisher at the rim who can overpower defenders. Where Leonard needs to improve is as a shooter, where he shot 38% from 3, but only 29% on long 2s; it's one thing to hit open corner 3s like Leonard did in the Spurs system, but quite another to be a go-to scorer. As for opportunity, Leonard should have a bigger role in the San Antonio offense as the older Spurs stars rest more and hold back for the playoffs.

Northwest Division: Alec Burks, Jazz
For some unknown reason, the Jazz continued to play the Zombiefied corpse of Raja Bell despite having a young talent like Alec Burks on the roster, who produced whenever given the chance. Hopefully, the Jazz have learned from the mistake and will give Burks the Sixth Man role and plenty of playing time. Burks is dangerous weapon because he uses his quickness, explosiveness, and ball-handling  to get to the rim, finish, and draw a ton of fouls, that won't go away and he should be a league leader in fouls drawn on a per minute basis. However, like all young players Burks needs to improve as a shooter both from 3 and in-between, but given that his stroke looks good and he shot well from the line as both a rookie and in college, there's hope that it will just take a little bit of work before the shots start falling.

College Basketball Award Predictions

Freshman of the Year: Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
Any prediction surrounding Shabazz Muhammad comes with the caveat "if eligible." If Muhammad misses 10 -15 games, he's still probably the Freshman of the year because he's just that good and will provide the kind of stat sheet stuffing and highlight plays that lead to awards and national recognition. Obviously, if he's out for the whole year then the race is more wide open. Isaiah Austin and Nerlens Noel will both be dominant defensive players who'll average 2-3 blocks and 9-10 rebounds a game, but I'll give the edge to Austin because he's a better offensive player.

Defensive Player of the Year: Gougi Dieng, Lousville
Jeff Withey of Kansas is also a strong contender, but Dieng will likely play more minutes, grab more rebounds, and play on an overall better defensive team. Dieng will likely block 3+ shots a game and provide tough interior defense against both driving guards and post up players. Nerlens Noel is another possibility, but it's hard to predict a Freshman to win an award like this.

Coach of the Year: Mark Few, Gonzaga
Gonzaga is a preseason top 20 team with a really good chance to finish in the top 10, which means Mark Few will be in the running for Coach of the Year. There will probably be an overachieving team that comes out of nowhere and has a great season, and that coach will win the award. As of now, I like Gonzaga to be a top team because they have very winnable non-conference games against Clemson, West Virginia, Kansas State, and Washington State and have a great chance to knock off Baylor at home.

Player of the Year: Cody Zeller, Indiana
I'm not as sure about this one as some other people, Cody Zeller is absolutely one of the best, if not the best player in the country, but he plays on such a loaded team that I'm not sure that can compete with some of the gaudy numbers Doug McDermott or even Shabazz Muhammad (if eligible...) will put up. Zeller will have to average 17+ points and 7-8+ rebounds (up from 15 and 6) while still shooting great percentages and provide a defensive presence to a perviously average defensive team. If Zeller does those things, which are easily possible, and Indiana lives up to expectations, he'll be player of the year no matter how many points Doug McDermott averages.

First Team All-American
G: Isaiah Canaan, Murray State
G: Trey Burke, Michigan
F: Doug McDermott, Creighton
F: Mike Moser, UNLV
C: Cody Zeller, Indiana

Second Team All-American
G: Phil Pressey, Missouri
G: Pierre Jackson, Baylor
F: Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
F: Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State
C: Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota

Third Team All-American
G: Michael Snaer, Florida State
G: Jamaal Franklin, San Deigo State
F: Otto Porter, Georgetown
F: Tony Mitchell, North Texas
C: Gorgui Dieng, Louisville

All-Freshman First Team
G: Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State
G: Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
F: Kyle Anderson, UCLA
F: Isaiah Austin, Baylor
C: Nerlens Noel, Kentucky

All-Freshman Second Team
G: Rasheed Sulaimon, Duke
G: Archie Goodwin, Kentucky
F: Alex Poythres, Kentucky
F: DaJuan Coleman, Syracuse
C: Steven Adams, Pittsburgh

All-Freshman Third Team
G: Gary Harris, Michigan State
G: Glen Robinson III, Michigan
F: Grant Jerrett, Arizona
F: Anthony Bennett, UNLV
C: Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona

Monday, October 22, 2012

NBA Awards Predictions

Most Improved Player: Paul George, Indiana
This is always the most difficult award to predict because it usually just has to do with playing time more than actual improvement. Paul George is a starter and played plenty of minutes last season, but Darren Collison and Leandro Barbosa are both gone, so George will be leaned on to score more, that plus a slight uptick in rebounds, steals, and blocks (plus some highlight reel dunks) will make George a favorite for this award. Evan Turner, Goran Dragic, and Klay Thompson are all also possibilities.

Coach of the Year: Eric Spoelstra, Miami
Despite all the criticism that he's received, Eric Spoelstra has improved every year as a coach and is now one of the best in the game. Obviously, it's easy when you've got the talent that he's got, but just throwing together talent doesn't equal success (see: the Knicks), and Spoelstra has managed this team to perfection while also leading the way for the new small-ball era. The Heat will likely dominate the regular season even if injuries crop up and this award usually goes to the winning-est coach. Mike Brown and Doc Rivers also have good shots at winning.

Sixth Man of the Year: Jason Terry, Boston
I had James Harden as the winner of this award a couple days ago, but now that he's been traded to Houston and will start, he won't be eligible. Jason Terry is a solid choice however, he'll be counted for a lot of offense off the bench and should average 15+ points a game. Manu Ginobili, and Ray Allen/Rashard Lewis are all possibilities.

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Davis, New Orleans
This award is a closer race than some might think, with Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Jonas Valanciunas both strong challengers. Given the hype around Anthony Davis, it's hard for me to imagine that he won't win it, since there will be a strong focus on him, meaning that what he does best, namely defense, won't go unnoticed. Plus he's likely to put up some gaudy rebound/shot-blocking numbers while scoring at a decent clip and providing highlights galore.

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers
Forgotten in the Dwightmare is just how amazing of a player Howard is. He was barely trying last year and still led the league in rebounding, blocked 2.1 shots a game, and finished third in DPOY voting and was First-Team All Defense. Now that he's motivated and angry for not winning DPOY for a third straight year? Forget about it. Tyson Chandler, Serge Ibaka, and LeBron James all have shots to win, but Howard is the clear favorite.

Most Valuable Player: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
LeBron will likely be the player who deserves this the most at the end of the year, but a combination of voter fatigue and Kevin Durant actually improving will lead to Durant getting the award. If Durant continues to improve both his passing and his defense, while sustaining his incredible scoring/shooting performances, he'd be the clear MVP in a LeBron-less universe. Chris Paul and Dwight Howard both have chance to win along with LeBron of course.

All NBA-First Team
G: Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
C: Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers

All-NBA Second Team
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston
G: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City
F: Josh Smith, Atlanta
F: Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers
C: Tyson Chandler, New York

All-NBA Third Team
G: Deron Williams, Brooklyn
G: Tony Parker, San Antonio
G: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston

All-Defensive First Team
G: Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
G: Tony Allen, Memphis
F: Andre Igoudala, Denver
F: LeBron James, Miami
C: Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers


All-Defensive Second Team
G: Ricky Rubio, Minnesota
G: Avery Bradley, Boston
F: Josh Smith, Atlanta
F: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City
C: Tyson Chandler, New York

All-Rookie First Team
G: Damian Lillard, Portland
G: Bradley Beal, Washington
F: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte
F: Anthony Davis, New Orleans
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto

All-Rookie Second Team
G: Jeremy Lamb, Houston
G: Harrison Barnes, Golden State
F: Terrence Jones, Houston
F: Andrew Nicholson, Orlando
C: Andre Drummond, Detroit

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Early 2013 NBA Draft Top 15

1. Nerlens Noel, C Kentucky Fr. (6-11, 215)
Though he'll likely be unfairly compared to Anthony Davis, Nerlens Noel might just be good enough live up to it anyways. Noel is much more of a traditional big man, and may even be a better shot blocker than Davis. Noel is big, long, and explosively athletic with terrific timing and instincts as a defender. He moves excellently for a big man and projects to be an outstanding pick-and-roll defender to go with obvious ability as a help defender. Offensively, he still has a ways to go, but he can hit a mid-range jumper and has some basic post moves; given the his overall athletic ability and great hands, I'd expect him to develop into a very good offensive player as well. Right now he's the favorite to be the top overall pick.

2. Shabazz Muhammad, G/F UCLA Fr. (6-6, 225)
Perhaps the most NBA ready player in the draft, Shabazz Muhammad has an NBA body and an NBA game. Ripped and super explosive athletically, Muhammad is a monster on the offensive end because of his first step, strength, and explosiveness attack the rim, especially in transition. Muhammad also has a fairly advanced post and mid-range game for his position. Really, the only weakness offensively is 3 point shooting, which isn't bad, just needs work. Muhammad is also an outstanding rebounder and defender. The thing to love the most about him though, is his motor and tenacity, he's always attacking on offense and defense. Muhammad and Noel will likely be battling all year for the number 1 overall pick.

3. Cody Zeller, C Indiana So. (6-11, 210)
Always viewed as a quality player but not elite High School player, Cody Zeller took the next step to star in his freshman year. Zeller's greatest attribute is his offense, where he can score in the paint or step out and hit a jumper, he's also very good running the floor. Physically, he has good size but needs to get stronger and isn't particularly long or explosive, however he moves really well and is very quick, which serves him well both offensively. If Zeller takes another step forward next season, he'll have a shot at the top overall pick and certainly go in the top 5, there just aren't many players his size with this much offensive ability.

4. Isaiah Austin, C Baylor Fr. (7-0, 215)
A long, athletically gifted big man who can handle the ball and shoot playing at Baylor, sound familiar? Much like Perry Jones and Quincy Miller before him, Isaiah Austin is a super skilled big man with advanced ball handling skills and 3-point shooting ability. Though Austin is most comfortable on the perimeter, he can also take the ball inside and score in the post while on defense he's a tremendous shotblocker thanks to explosive athleticism, a 7-3 wingspan, and a great timing as well as a excellent rebounder. Austin still needs to learn to take the ball into the post more and get stronger, but the combination of offensive skill and defensive ability he brings is enough to make him a top 5-10 pick easily.

5. James Michael McAdoo, PF North Carolina So. (6-9, 225)
The million dollar question with McAdoo is which part of his season was the reality, was it the first 30 games of the season, he was absolutely dreadful, or the last 8 when he was much better. I love McAdoo coming out of high school because of his polish and physical abilities, but he rarely showed either until the end of the season. McAdoo is skilled offensively and solid defensively to go with very smooth athleticism and explosiveness. McAdoo is the main guy at North Carolina next year and could crash and burn if those 8 games were just an aberrational and he might be a little overrated at this point, after all he's only scored in double figures 6 times in his career and never had more than 10 rebounds, but I believe in the High School player I saw.

6. Alex Poythress, SF Kentucky Fr.(6-9, 215)
Like Noel, Alex Poythress will likely suffer from unfair comparisons to his predecessor on the wing, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but Poythress is a terrific player in his own right. A long, explosive athlete, Poythress has a great motor and is constantly in attack mode on offense, defense, and crashing the glassing. That isn't to say Poythress is unskilled, he's got a good handle and can get to the rim as well as hit open jumpers.

7. Steven Adams, C Pittsburgh Fr. (6-11, 240)
Adams came out of nowhere both as a College recruit and an NBA prospect because, playing in his native New Zealand, very few had actually seen him play. However, after playing stateside against top recruits Nerlens Noel and Kaleb Tarczewski and more than holding his own, Adams blew up and became a top 10 recruit and a potential top 10 pick and it's easy to see why. Long, athletic, and strong, Adams plays very hard and physically, especially on defense and on the boards, he has great hands and a developing skill set.

8. Rudy Gobert, PF/C France (7-1, 230)
Rudy Gobert came legitimately onto the NBA top prospect radar after dominating EuroCamp and measuring over 7-foot with a crazy 7-9 wingspan, which rivals the longest recorded in the last 10 so years (as a point of reference, the longest in the last draft was Andre Drummond's 7-6). Because of that length, Gobert is an outstanding rebounder, shotblocker, and finisher around the rim. Gobert still has to work on his overall skill level and get a lot stronger, but his potential is off the charts because of that size, as well as mobility and athleticism.

9. Tony Mitchell, SF North Texas So. (6-8, 220)
Finally able to play after academic and transfer issues, Tony Mitchell was completely dominant, averaging 14.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 3 blocks a game, shooting 57% from the field and 44% from 3. The scoring, rebounding, and shot blocking, while excellent, aren't unexpected given Mitchell's skills, but the 3 point shooting is, as Mitchell was inconsistent from that range in High School. If Mitchell can continue to dominate and shoot from 3 that well, there's a good chance he'll get drafted in the top 10, because there are few more talented players in College basketball.

10. Anthony Bennett, PF UNLV Fr. (6-8, 230)
Whether it's fair or not, Anthony Bennett's draft stock will most likely rise and fall with his 3 point percentage. Despite being long, very explosive and strong, Bennett will always be labeled as undersized at 6-8, unless he has another growth spurt in him. Bennett's physical tools allow him to score in High School and, after a little seasoning, should be able to in college as well but, really it will all come down to the shooting. Bennett is already a good shooter and should only improve with time, and if it does Bennett will certainly be a top 10 pick.

11. Myck Kabongo, PG Texas So. (6-2, 170)
Though he struggled in his freshman year, there's still a lot to love about Myck Kabongo. Kabongo is a super quick, pure point guard who thinks pass first and loves to set up teammates, especially on the break. He's got as solid jumper and can get by most. He's also a charismatic, quality kid and vocal leader. So why did Kabongo  struggle? First, he played on dysfunctional Texas team that lacked talent. Secondly, he's small and smaller players usually have an adjustment period when it comes to finishing and dealing with stronger players. Kabongo has had a season and an offseason to get stronger and adjust, while Texas is losing some problem players and gaining a top recruiting class, so he could be in line for a breakout.

12. Ricardo Ledo, SG Providence Fr. (6-6, 195)
Perhaps the best scorer in the 2012 recruiting class, Ricardo Ledo has one thing on his mind when he steps on the floor: get buckets. Ledo is long and athletic and can score in a multitude of ways, whether it's with a smooth jumper or getting to the rim, Ledo is a natural. He also has advanced ball handling skills and great body control. Ledo's greatest strength can also be his greatest weakness, when he sometimes is too aggressive looking for his own shot. It's not that he's selfish, he just needs to learn to make the easier play rather than try to do it all himself.

13. Grant Jerrett, PF Arizona Fr. (6-10, 220)
One of three 5-Star Arizona frontcourt recruits, Grant Jerrett is the best NBA prospect of the three because he's got legit power forward height, athleticism, length (7-1 wingspan), and the frame to add a lot more strength to go along with a great skill set, including three point range, a post game, and a high basketball IQ. Jerrett needs to get stronger and learn to play more aggressively to become a dominant force, however he at worst has a future as a stretch 4 in the NBA, if not more.

14. Kyle Anderson, SF UCLA Fr. (6-8, 230)
I'm conflicted on Kyle Anderson, I love his size, incredible point guard skills, mid-range game and history as a winner, but it's hard to watch him and not think he's just not an NBA level athlete. There's something to be said about playing the game at your own pace, but I have a hard time seeing Anderson beating anyone off the dribble in the NBA. Still, Anderson will play in the NBA and at least be a solid player, especially if he can improve his shooting, but I don't think he'll be the dominant player he was in High School and likely will be in College. I also doubt Anderson will be a one-and-done either.

15. Michael Carter-Williams, G Syracuse Fr. (6-5, 180)
Syracuse had a deep, veteran backcourt last season, so 5-star, McDonald's All-American Michael Carter-Williams only played 10.3 minutes a game, while appearing in 26 of 37 games. When he did play, however he displayed serious talent, shooting 39% from 3 and posting a 3.9 assist-to-turnover ratio. Now, with Scoop Jardine and Dion Waiters gone, Carter-Williams will a starter and able to display his full skillset as a tall, long combo guard who can score from anywhere on the floor and has the potential to play point guard full time.
Just missed: Dario Saric, Croatia; Patric Young, Florida; Archie Goodwin, Kentucky; Adonis Thomas, Memphis; C.J. Leslie, North Carolina State

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Jack/Wright, Anderson/Ayon trades

Jarrett Jack to Golden State, Dorell Wright to Philadelphia
Golden State, Philadelphia, and New Orleans complicated 3 team deal involving several players, but the gist of the deal is that the Warriors end up with Jarrett Jack and the Sixers get Dorell Wright. For New Orleans, they're simply clearing up money to sign Eric Gordon as well as playing time in the backcourt for some of their younger players.
I love this move for Golden State, who really needed a dependable back up for Stephen Curry, who has struggled to stay healthy with recurring ankle injuries. Jack is solid both offensively and defensively; not spectacular, but solid. Jack is actually better defending shooting guards, so he can play there as well and can take the departed Brandon Rush's minutes while Curry is healthy. With Jack and second year combo guard Charles Jenkins, Golden State is much more secure in the backcourt. Perhaps equally as important, by trading Wright, Golden State has cleared playing time for Harrison Barnes at small forward, where he'll likely start with Richard Jefferson as the back up.
As for Philadelphia, I'm not really sure what they're doing. Dorell Wright is a good player, but I'm not sure when he'll play. Philadelphia now has Wright, Andre Igoudala, Nick Young, Evan Turner, and Moe Harkless  on the wing, as well as combo forward Thaddeus Young. Unless a trade is coming, and you have to think that one is, how are they going to find minutes for all these players? Add that to the fact that Philadelphia has no back up point guard and no proven commodity at power forward, you have to think they're trading either Igoudala or Turner. As far as the fit on the team, I like Wright in Philadelphia: Wright has shot 37% from 3 the last three seasons and they really need shooting now that Jodie Meeks and Lou Williams are gone. Wright is also a solid defender when motivated, and Doug Collins is the kind of coach who can get the most out of him on that end. What he doesn't do, however, is cure the Sixers lack of shots at the rim, because Wright struggles to create his own shot. Wright is also an expiring contract, which gives Philadelphia some flexibility next summer. Still, you have to think this is the precursor to a big trade.

Ryan Anderson to the Hornets
The Hornets continue to rebuild their roster, having acquired former Magic forward Ryan Anderson in a sign-and-trade with Orlando. Anderson is receiving a 4 year, $36 million deal while the Magic receive forward Gustavo Ayon. Anderson is a nice add for New Orleans, who need to add talent to their frontcourt, and while they may have overpaid a little, Anderson has value because he can shoot (38% career 3 point shooter) and rebound. Presumably, New Orleans believes that Anthony Davis can play center, the position he played in college, or else they wouldn't have paid a power forward starting money. On the floor, New Orleans will lack a low post presence until Davis develops more, so I wouldn't be surprised if they brought back Carl Landry to play that role. However, the Hornets will also really be able to shoot, with Anderson, Eric Gordon, Austin Rivers, Xavier Henry and Darius Miller all being average to above-average shooters. Anderson is also young enough (24) to fit into the Hornets rebuilding plan. For the Magic, they lose out on re-signing Anderson, who was probably out of their price range, and get a valuable big in Ayon who is big, athletic, and has a really good motor. Ayon, along with Glen Davis, Andrew Nicholson, and Kyle O'Quinn will form the core of the Magic frontcourt after Dwight Howard is either traded or leaves via free agency. Those four players are a good mix of abilities and should be a solid, and perhaps more importantly cheap, rotation.


Las Vegas Summer League preview

Las Vegas hosts the bigger of the two summer leagues, which features teams from all NBA teams except for those competing in Orlando (The Magic, Nets, Celtics, Thunder, Pistons, 76ers, Pacers, and Jazz) as well as a D-League Select team. Here's a quick look at who to watch for in Las Vegas.

Atlanta Hawks
John Jenkins, Guard
We all know Jenkins can shoot, he was one of, if not the best shooter in this last draft, the real question is what else can he do? Is he going to be relegated to a 3-point specialist? If Atlanta decides to bring newly-signed Lou Williams off the bench, Jenkins has a good chance to start now that Joe Johnson has been traded, however he'll need to show he can score in different ways and defend his position.

Derrick Caracter, Forward/Center
Add Keith Benson and Jordan Williams to this list too. It seems likely that one of these three big men will make the Atlanta Hawks roster, but unlikely that any more than that one will, setting up a three way battle for a roster spot. Both Caracter and Williams are wide-bodied, below the rim players who can score inside, with Williams being a better rebounder and Caracter being a better shooter. Benson on the other hand, is a tall, long, and athletic shotblocker with a good overall offensive game, however he's slight of build and considered soft by many.
Others to watch: Mike Scott, Forward; Jordan Taylor, Guard

Charlotte Bobcats
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Forward
Obviously, anytime the number 2 pick in the draft is playing, it will be appointment television. It will be interesting to see how much of an impact MKG can have with only a couple practices under his belt and all new teammates. How far has his offensive game come since the end of the season? How much of an effect will his motor and leadership have on this team?

Kemba Walker, Guard
The number 9 pick in last years draft, Kemba Walker really struggled last season, shooting a double-take inducing 37% from the field, worst among qualified players. WalkerJ is a notoriously hard-worker and as a 6-1, 184 scoring guard, he had a hard adjustment than most, especially in a lockout year. He'll play a ton of minutes and have the ball in his hands alot, so just how much his efficiency and playmaking abilities have improved will become clear quickly.
Others to watch: Bismack Biyombo, Center; Jeff Taylor, Guard/Forward

Chicago Bulls
Marquis Teague, Guard
Chicago let C.J. Watson go and signed Kirk Hinrich, so it seems they're hoping for Teague to be the backup point guard until Derrick Rose returns from injury. Teague has all the athletic gifts of a star point guard, but he needs some seasoning to learn how to use those gifts as well as run a team. Look to see if Teague is scoring efficiently and setting up teammates, while avoiding turnovers.

Jimmy Butler, Guard/Forward
Like Teague, the Bulls are showing a lot of faith in Jimmy Butler after letting go of Ronnie Brewer, Butler will most likely enter the rotation, taking Brewer's minutes. Butler is a hard-nosed defender and rebounder, but he needs to work on his offensive game, especially his shooting. Butler is one of few players on this roster who have played in an NBA game and have a future in the NBA, so he should emerge as one of the leading players.
Others to watch: Malcolm Thomas, Forward; Henry Sims, Center

Cleveland Cavaliers
Tristan Thompson, Forward/Center
The Cavaliers took Thompson higher than more expected him to go with the 4th overall pick in the 2011 draft, over Lithuanian star Jonas Valanciunas. Thompson had a good rookie season, he played hard, using his length and athleticism to crash the boards and defend, but he wasn't a very efficient on offense and struggled with his shooting, he needs to improve on that if the Cavaliers want to get good value for their pick.

Dion Waiters, Cavaliers
In a situation eerily similar to Thompson, Dion Waiters was also selected by the Cavaliers with the 4th overall pick (this time in 2012), earlier than many thought. If Waiters wants to live up to such a high pick, he needs to prove he's more than just a scorer off the bench and can be a well rounded, starting NBA 2 guard. We know Waiters can get to the rim, but what about the rest of his game? Also, watch how he compliments Kyrie Irving.
Others to watch: Kyrie Irving, Guard; Tyler Zeller, Center

Dallas Mavericks
Jared Cunningham, Guard
It's one thing to talk about Jared Cunningham transitioning to point guard, it's quite another for him to actually do it. Assuming that is the plan, this will be Cunningham's first shot at it. He's athletic and can get to the rim, but he'll need to improve his ability to run an offense and set up teammates. If the switch doesn't work out, Cunningham will still be a good slasher and defender, but he'll need to become a more consistent shooter to have a real big influence.

Dominique Jones, Guard
Entering his third year in the league, this may be the make or break year for Dominique Jones, who the Mavericks selected 25th overall in 2010. Jones is a power guard who can get to the rim and make plays, but he needs to become a more consistent shooter if he wants to crack the Dallas rotation.
Others to watch: Bernard James, Center; Jae Crowder, Forward

Denver Nuggets
Quincy Miller, Forward
Miller fell to the second round despite prodigious, unique talent because of a past knee injury and questions about his fit on teams. Miller is a 6-10, athletic forward who can handle the ball and shoot from the outside, but the real question will be how aggressive will he be and how much has he recovered from that knee injury. Miller was tentative and less aggressive than he was pre-injury, he looked better in workouts, so it will be interesting to see just how that translates to a real game.

Evan Fournier, Guard/Forward
A veteran of European professional leagues, Fournier will have a lot more experience than most of the other players in the summer league, so don't be surprised if he has a big week. Fournier is a big shooting guard with a excellent mid-range game that can get to the rim and make plays for teammates. He needs to improve his 3 point shot and there are questions about his defense, but Fournier should be one of the more exciting players at summer league, especially since most haven't seen him play before.
Others to watch: Kenneth Faried, Forward; Jordan Hamilton, Forward; Julyan Stone, Guard

Golden State Warriors
Harrison Barnes, Forward
Barnes, the number 7 pick in the 2012 draft, will be joining a stacked summer league roster but all eyes will be on him as the potential star on the roster. Barnes is a big wing scorer with a smooth jump shot, however he plays on a team with two other perimeter players who's best asset is shooting (Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson) so there will be pressure on Barnes to makes plays off the bounce, something he has struggled with in the past.

Festus Ezeli, Center
Given Andrew Bogut and Andris Biedrins' history of injuries, center depth is a crucial position for Golden State. Festus Ezeli was drafted with the 30th pick in the more recent draft for this very reason. The Warriors aren't looking for a lot out of Ezeli, he just needs to be able to play defense, rebound, and finish close around the basket.
Others to watch: Klay Thompson, Guard; Charles Jenkins, Guard; Draymond Green, Forward

Houston Rockets
Royce White, Forward
Whenever Royce White is playing, it's always appointment television. White is a big (6-8, 260), athletic point forward who can do just about anything on the floor. It will be interesting to see if White will be allowed to handle the ball or initiate offense and just how well he will do with teammates he hasn't played with very much. White could be a big trade chip if he dominates the games in the unique way that he can.

Donatas Motiejunas, Forward
The Rockets have a loaded summer league team, but the player I'm most excited to watch is Donatas Motiejunas. Motiejunas was drafted 20th overall in 2011 and this will be his first action in the United States. Motiejunas is 7-0, athletic face up forward who likes to play on the perimeter and has a nice jumpshot. We know he can score, but will Motiejunas mix it up on the boards and play physical on the defensive end?
Others to watch: Terrence Jones, Forward; Jeremy Lamb, Guard; Scott Machado, Guard; Marcus Morris, Forward; Chandler Parsons, Forward.

Los Angeles Clippers
Eric Bledsoe, Guard
One of the most explosive, athletic point guards in the league, Eric Bledsoe has played well in small spurts, but unfortunately for him, small spurts are all he's ever likely to get because of Chris Paul's presence on the team. If Bledsoe continues to play well, there's a good chance that he is used as trade bait for the Clippers, who need depth all around on their team.

Mickey McConnell, Guard
McConnell was one of the best shooters in college basketball when he played a St. Mary's and that carried over to Italy, where he averaged 17.6 points a game in for the 2011-12 season. McConnell is a deadly shooter, as well as a good ball handler and passer, he only has a small chance at making an NBA team, but he's fun to watch play and an underdog to root for, in a Jeremy Lin type way.
Others to watch: Trey Thompkins, Forward; Travis Leslie, Guard

Los Angeles Lakers
Chinemelu Elonu, Forward/Center
Drafted all the way back in 2009, Chinemelu Elonu was a project coming out of Texas A&M. Elonu is big, long, and athletic but he had little skill level when he was drafted. After playing several years in Europe, including averaging 10 and 8 in France last season, Elonu is coming back to play for the Lakers summer league team and should be an interesting watch. If he's polished up his game at all, he could make a Lakers team that lacks depth and the funds to acquire it.


Darius Johnson-Odom, Marquette
There's no getting around the fact the Darius Johnson-Odom is undersized: at 6-3 DJO would be undersized for a shooting guard, but his natural position is small forward, so it's even worse. However, he has the shooting ability and quickness to transition to shooting guard, and there's no one who'll play harder or that's tougher. Again, Johnson-Odom has a good chance of making a Lakers roster in serious need of depth.
Others to watch: Devin Ebanks, Forward; Robert Sacre, Center

Memphis Grizzlies
Tony Wroten Jr, Guard
Wroten was one of the most talented players in the draft, but he fell because of some legitimate concerns, but not ones that can't be fixed given hard work. Wroten is a huge (6-6), athletic point guard with tremendous court vision and passing ability, however his jumper really needs work and he can be wild and turnover prone. If Wroten can just become a decent shooter and learn to reign himself in some, he could be a Tyreke Evans type player, but a better passer. This summer league is the first step for Wroten, who has the talent to dominate the league.

Josh Selby, Guard
There hasn't been more hype for a player who has accomplished so little in quite a bit of time, but there's a good reason for the hype: he is an incredibly talented, super athletic, undersized shooting guard who plays best with the ball in his hands but has yet to really figure out how to play a team game. Hopefully, after a year of grinding in practices with one of the tougher teams in the league, Selby will have taken a couple steps forward. There's a good chance he either blows up or blows out, either way this is a big summer for Selby.
Others to watch: Jeremy Pargo, Guard; Cam Tatum, Guard/Forward

Miami Heat
Norris Cole, Guard
Cole burst on the to scene with a couple of big games for the Heat last season, but after being predictably overrated by the media, he equally as predictably cooled off before pretty much falling out of the rotation. Cole is, however, a very talented player but because he is small (6-2, 175) he had a big adjustment period as a finisher because the in the NBA, everyone is bigger and stronger. However, given his quickness and well rounded game, he should be able to take a step forward in this summer league and beyond.

Jarvis Varnado, Forward/Center
The All-Time NCAA shotblocker leader, Jarvis Varnado was drafted in 2010 but never played an NBA game, instead playing in Europe. Obviously, Varnado is an incredible shotblocker and defensive player, but it's unlikely he makes the Heat's roster and I don't know his chances of making any team, however he's really fun to watch and should be a fan favorite at the summer league.
Others to watch: J'Covan Brown, Guard; Terrel Harris, Guard; Justin Hamilton, Center; Dexter Pittman, Center

Milwaukee Bucks
Tobias Harris, Forward
Tobias Harris, a 2011 draft pick, played very well for the Bucks in limited minutes last season and could be in for an increase of minutes, especially because of of his unique talent. Harris is a big, strong point forward who can handle, pass, and rebound. He needs to improve his shooting and his defense, if he can do those two things, he could earn some playing time for Milwaukee. Harris is a very hard worker, so don't be surprised to see some improvement in his game this summer.

John Henson, Forward
Throw Larry Sanders in here too. The Bucks are loaded down with long armed, offensively inept players, including Sanders, Henson, Ekpe Udoh, and Samuel Dalembert, and while they're all on the roster with guaranteed contracts, it's unlikely they'll all get playing time. Dalembert is a lock to start at center, but Henson, Sander, and Udoh will be battling for playing time and this summer league is the beginning. Udoh isn't playing, but Henson and Sanders will be watched closely to see who will get first shot at the rotation.
Others to watch: Larry Sanders, Forward/Center; Doron Lamb, Guard

Minnesota Timberwolves
Derrick Williams, Forward
The number 2 pick in last years draft, Derrick Williams had an up and down season for the Timberwolves. He had highlight reel plays and put together some big games, but he also really struggled with consistency, particularly with his efficiency and shooting. Williams needs to figure out what he wants to be in the NBA, he was an outstanding shooter in college, but only shot 37% from 3 and 41% from the field in his rookie year. Williams needs to come out aggressive, attack the rim and post up instead of hanging out in the perimeter and taking jumpers.

Robbie Hummel, Forward
Once upon a time, Robbie Hummel was considered a decent NBA prospect, but two knee injuries later he was barely drafted at 58 overall. Hummel has a legitimate chance to make the Timberwolves because of his shooting ability and fit in Rick Adelman's offense. Hummel has a nice jumper and can shoot over most wing players, along with being a good passer. Hummel might not ever have a huge in-game impact other than a floor spacer, but his hardworking nature and high basketball IQ make him an asset in practices.
Other to watch: Jet Chang, Guard; William Buford, Guard

New Orleans Hornets
Anthony Davis, Forward/Center
This one is pretty obvious. Davis, the number 1 overall pick in last years draft, is obviously one of the biggest draws in Vegas. Davis is really fun to watch because off all the things he does, especially on defense where you'll see him help on a pick-and-roll at the three point line, then recover to the roll man and block his shot in the paint. It will also be interesting to see if Davis can provide some scoring away from the friendly confines of the Kentucky offense.

Austin Rivers, Guard
Here we go, Rivers was one of the most polarizing prospects in the draft and this will be our first taste him against pro competition as well as the first time in his career Rivers hasn't been the best player on his team. The Hornets are hoping Rivers can play point guard, and given the lack of a high level point on this summer league team, he'll be given a shot at it right off the bat.
Others to watch: Darius Miler, Guard/Forward; Xavier Henry, Guard/Forward; Matthew Bryan-Amaning, Forward

New York Knicks
Wesley Witherspoon, Forward
An undrafted free agent forward out of Memphis, Wesley Witherspoon has a slim chance of making the Knicks roster, however he'll be worth watching because of his propensity to make explosive, highlight reel players. The Knicks summer league roster is the worst in Vegas, with most if not all of the players unlikely to make it in the NBA.

Chris Smith, Guard
Smith, younger brother of Knicks guard J.R. Smith, is like his brother in more ways than just appearance. The younger Smith appears to have modeled his game after his brother, complete with incredible plays and terrible shot selection. Smith will likely have a game where he goes for 30+ and a game when he goes 0-for-6 from three. Still, if he can learn to rein it in a little, he could have a Von Wafer type NBA career.
Others to watch: Jeremiah Rivers, Guard; Artsiom Parakhouski, Center

Phoenix Suns
Kendall Marshall, Guard
One of the most valuable players in college basketball last season, Kendall Marshall was the key cog that turned North Carolina from collection of talent to offensive juggernaut. Marshall is a terrific passer, but it will be interesting to see how he does with a less than elite group of offensive players like he'll be playing with in the summer league. Can he provide the same value to an offense or will he struggle when not surrounded by elite players?

Markieff Morris, Forward
The good news for Markieff Morris is that he shot 35% from 3 in his rookie season, very good for a 6-10 power forward, the bad news is he didn't rebound very well and shot an abysmal 40% overall from the floor. If he wants to make it in the league, Morris will have to improve his rebounding and efficiency. He did both of those things very well at Kansas, so I'd be surprised if he didn't turn it around at least a respectable amount.
Others to watch: David Lighty, Guard; Jacob Pullen, Guard; Diante Garrett, Guard

Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard, Guard
In 4 full seasons at Weber State, Damian Lillard never faced a top 25 team and the best team he faced, Cal, held him to 4-of-17 shooting. This isn't an attack on Lillard, but simply stating of a fact that leads you to believe this summer league will be a big jump in competition for Lillard. Lillard has the skills and demeanor to succeed, but the question is will the adjustment period be a couple of games or half a season plus.

Meyers Leonard, Center
Leonard's development is in a tie with Luke Babbitt, Nolan Smith, Will Barton and Elliot Williams for second most interesting Portland summer league story. Leonard is trying to prove he wasn't a reach in the lottery and Babbitt, Smith, Barton, and Williams are fighting for minutes in a mostly wide open Portland backcourt. Leonard doesn't need to dominate, but if he continues to disappear for stretches red flags will be raised. As for the other four, each brings something different to the table, Babbitt: size; Smith: ball handling;Williams: explosiveness; Barton: scoring.
Others to watch: Luke Babbitt, Forward; Elliot Williams, Guard; Will Barton, Guard; Nolan Smith, Guard

Sacramento Kings
Jimmer Fredette, Guard
Fredette had one of the biggest adjustments of any player in the 2011 draft, going from being the man on a WCC team to a role player in the NBA is a huge leap and change in role. He struggled for most of the season, but there were flashes. Like Kemba Walker, Fredette is a smart player and a hard worker, so I wouldn't be surprised if he makes himself into a decent NBA backup, though I think the days of thinking of him as Stephen Curry are long gone, with J.J. Redick being more of the probably outcome.

Hassan Whiteside, Forward/Center
Obviously, Thomas Robinson is a must watch this summer, but there's another intriguing Kings big man who'll be interesting to watch and that's Hassan Whiteside, the athletic, 7-7 wingspan former second round pick who can block shots at will but has trouble with much else. Whiteside has been playing mostly in the D-League, so it will be interesting to see just how much he's improved and if he can contribute in the NBA, mainly if he's gotten stronger and improved offensively.
Others to watch: Thomas Robinson, Forward; Tyler Honeycutt, Forward; Tony Mitchell, Alabama

San Antonio Spurs
Marcus Denmon, Guard
An athletic combo guard with a terrific jumper, Marcus Denmon was of my favorite players in the last draft because he can do some much to help a team. Denmon is obviously a terrific shooter, but he can score in other ways as well as defend point guards and even play point guard a little. I also love Denmon in the Spurs system, I wouldn't be surprised if he not only made the Spurs roster but earned some minutes in his rookie season.

Cory Joseph, Guard
San Antonio surprised many by taking Cory Joseph in the late first round back in 2011 and so far that incredulity has been justified. Joseph really struggled in his rookie season before being sent down to the D-League and struggling there as well. Joseph is on a guaranteed contract, so this isn't make or break, he'll get another chance, but this summer is a big for Joseph if he expects to make an impact for the big team this season, because if he struggles there's a good chance he'll spend most of the season in the D-League. Ditto for James Anderson as well.
Others to watch: Kawhi Leonard, Forward; James Anderson, Guard/Forward; JaMychal Green, Forward

Toronto Raptors
Terrence Ross, Guard/Forward
The Raptors raised some eyebrows when they took Ross at 8 overall, ahead of Austin Rivers and Jeremy Lamb, so look for Ross to come out aggressive and try to prove he was worth it. The question is, will it be a good aggressive, attacking and playing hard, or a reckless, gunning aggressive? Given Ross' demeanor, I'd expect the former, but you never know.

Ed Davis, Forward
Davis has been really effective when he's gotten the minutes, but Toronto seems loath to play him a lot but if Davis continues to improve, he'll force himself into a more prominent role and perhaps free Andrea Bargnani for a trade. As a third year player, Davis should perform very well in Vegas and will certainly be worth watching because of his explosiveness.
Others to watch: Quincy Acy, Forward; Tu Holloway, Guard; Daniel Orton, Center

Washington Wizards
Bradley Beal, Guard
The number 3 pick in the 2012 draft, Brad Beal will play a crucial role on the Wizards next season, the question is: just what will it be? Will he simply be a floor spacer or can he become the top perimeter scorer this team has lacked since pre-militant Gilbert Arenas? Beal has the skills and the potential to do it, but at, 19 is he ready?

Jan Vesley, Forward
Vesely struggled with injuries and adjusting to American basketball for the first part of last season, but he really started to show his value later on down the line. Vesley is a high energy, hustle player who'll get a lot of rebounds, steals, blocks, and dunks just because he's big, athletic, and plays hard, but the question is whether his skill will catch up with his motor? Vesley has been reportedly working a lot on his shooting, which along with ball handling and not fouling are the areas he needs to improve most on and getting reps against live competition will only help that.
Others to watch: Chris Singleton, Forward; Shelvin Mack, Guard; Tomas Satoransky, Guard/Forward

Sunday, July 8, 2012

Orlando Summer League preview

The smaller of the two summer leagues, Orlando hosts the hometown Magic along with the Celtics, Jazz, Nets, Pacers, Pistons, Sixers, and Thunder. Despite have quite fewer teams, the Orlando Summer League is home to some very interesting players and should be quite entertaining. He's a breakdown of who to watch on each team.

Boston Celtics
Jared Sullinger, Forward
This will be our first chance to answer the two questions most asked about Sullinger: how much will his back effect him and can he deal with against NBA length and athleticism. Sullinger will face some several current and future NBA bigs this summer, so we'll see just how much of his effectiveness in college will translate to the pros.

Fab Melo, Center
Melo has been much maligned by Celtics fans, but he can still be an productive NBA player if he can boost his rebounding and learn to play man-to-man defense. If Melo continues his shotblocking and help defense, and can pull down a respectable number of boards, it'll go a long way to ease concerns about his ability to contribute.

Utah Jazz
Enes Kanter, Center
Kanter was buried in a deep Utah frontcourt, but when he did get playing time he showed he could be a excellent rebounder and score in the post, which was expected but he didn't shoot the ball as well as it was thought he could. If Kanter can regain that shooting stroke, to go with his rebounding and post game, Kanter could become a dominate force that allows Utah to trade Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap.

Alec Burks, Guard
Like Kanter, Alec Burks was very productive in limited minutes, next season he'll be given more minutes now that Raja Bell has moved on and it will be interesting to see how much he has improved, because he could be a crucial part of the Jazz next season. Look out to see how much his shooting and playmaking has improved.

Brooklyn Nets
MarShon Brooks, Guard
Brooks had a solid rookie season and should be penciled in as Joe Johnson's primary backup for the Nets. Brooks will be asked to provide scoring off the bench, the question will be whether he can do it efficiently or not. How he does in a setting like the Summer league will go a long way to answer that question.

Tyshawn Taylor, Guard
A second round pick, Tyshawn Taylor has all the talent in the world, he just needs to learn to harness it. Taylor will be Deron Williams backup this season and most likely be asked to do two things: take care of the ball and play defense. He's pretty good at the latter, but needs work on the former.

Orlando Magic
Andrew Nicholson, Forward
With Ryan Anderson being traded to Hornets, Nicholson looks to have a chance to earn some minutes as a rookie. If Nicholson can continue to shoot the ball as well as he has and play defense, he could have a nice impact. It will be interesting to see how he does in this setting and whether he can up his rebounding totals.

Justin Harper, Forward
Harper was downright terrible as a rookie, shooting 29% from the field, 15% from 3, and missed the only free throw he attempted. This may be Harper's last chance at a career in the NBA, he needs to impress here or it could be the end.

Indiana Pacers
Miles Plumblee, Center
One of the more criticized picks of the first round, Miles Plumblee produced very little in four years at Duke despite having great size and athleticism. This isn't a make or break deal for Plumblee, especially since he's on a guaranteed contract, but it will help to show whether this was a wasted pick or not.


Lance Stephenson, Guard
Stephenson has become more famous for what he's said than for his production on the court. Stephenson has a chance to earn some minutes in a jumbled Indiana backcourt, but he won't unless he can improve his shooting and decision making.

Detroit Pistons
Andre Drummond, Center
Perhaps the player that will be the most interesting to watch, Andre Drummond will be the center of a lot of attention. The top physical talent in the draft, Drummond fell to the Pistons at 9 because of questions about his motor. It will be interesting to see how he performs now that he's away from the dysfunctional Connecticut team. We know he'll be an excellent defender and rebounder, but can he bring anything to the offensive end?

Brandon Knight, Guard
Knight had a solid rookie season, but needs to improve in several areas if he and the Pistons going to take the next step. Knight shot the ball well from deep, but struggled inside the arc, he also needs to learn to run the team better and draw more fouls. Knight is more talented than pretty much all of the other point guards in Orlando, so he should be able to dominate.

Philadelphia 76ers
Maurice Harkless, Forward
I'm not sure how Harkless fits on the Sixers, but he's definitely talented and should help Philadelphia get more shots close to the rim, something they struggle with, provided he can find minutes on a deep Sixers frontcourt. If Harkless shines, it may embolden Philadelphia to trade Andre Igoudala or Evan Turner.


Nikola Vucevic, Center
Vucevic had a solid rookie season, but he was pretty foul prone and had trouble staying on the floor. With Philadelphia amnestying Elton Brand, Vucevic will be called on to play more minutes, so he'll have to cut down on the fouls and improve his overall game.

Oklahoma City Thunder
Perry Jones III, Forward
Despite being a top 5 talent, Jones fell all the way to 28 because of a knee injury and inconsistency. Jones, along with Drummond, will draw the most attention in Orlando and it will be interesting to see how he plays and how much of a chip he has on his shoulder.

Cole Aldrich, Center
For an 11th overall pick, Cole Aldrich has been pretty disappointing. Aldrich will now do battle with another disappointing top pick, Hasheem Thabeet for Oklahoma City's backup center position. If Aldrich can't beat of Thabeet, it may spell the end of his career in OKC and maybe the league, so this summer league will be big.