Showing posts with label trey lyles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trey lyles. Show all posts

Friday, July 3, 2015

2015 Draft Review: Utah Jazz

2015-16 Depth Chart 
PG: Dante Exum/Trey Burke/Bryce Cotten
SG: Alec Burks/Rodney Hood/Olivier Hanlan
SF: Gordon Heyward/Elijah Millsap/Chris Johnson
PF: Derrick Favors/Trevor Booker/Grant Jerrett
C: Rudy Gobert/Trey Lyles/Jack Cooley

2015 Free Agents
SG Joe Ingles (RFA)
F Jeremy Evans

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Kentucky power forward Trey Lyles 11th overall
Considering how much depth and talent Utah has on its roster, taking a shot on a developmental player like Trey Lyes make sense. Lyles isn't a raw player at all, he just needs some time to iron-out the inconsistencies in his game, time he should be able to get in Utah. The Jazz said they envision Lyles as a stretch-four, which is ironic considering right now he is most effective posting-up, moving off the ball, and diving to the basket. Shooting is the lynchpin to Lyles game, his stroke looks very good, but the results were poor during his one season at Kentucky. In high school he shot very well up to 17-feet, but there is no guarantee that the shot develops, leaving the Jazz with a crafty but limited scorer without the athleticism to be an above-average defender. That's not a great return from a lottery pick. However, Utah has done well with all their young players in recent years and Lyles stroke is solid.

Drafted Boston College combo guard Olivier Hanlan 42nd overall
The Jazz went for a more ready-to-contribute option in the second round, drafting a combo guard that should be able to provide quality depth backing up both guard spots. Hanlan is a well-rounded, score-first offensive player that can distribute well enough to occasionally pass as a point guard. Utah's offense frequently plays through Gordon Heyward uses a lot of ball-movement, so Hanlan can fit in a point guard despite not being a pure distributor. Hanlan's ability to both drive and shoot is a nice option to have off the bench, someone who can get hot and carry a second unit every once in a while without completely being a gunner.

What To Do Next?
Utah probably has the deepest roster of promising young talent in the NBA, so there isn't a ton they really need to do this offseason. One area of need is a back-up small forward, preferably one that can shoot. Mike Dunleavy is still a great shooter and would inject a little age and experience to a very young core. Marco Belinelli would also be an ice fit with what Utah wants to do, as would Jared Dudley, who could also play some stretch-four.

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Monday, June 22, 2015

2015 Draft Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Damian Lillard/Tim Frazier
SG: C.J. McCollum/Allen Crabbe
SF: Nicolas Batum
PF: Meyers Leonard
C: Chris Kamen

2015 Free Agents
PG Joel Freeland (RFA)
SG Arron Afflalo (player option)
PG Steve Blake (player option)
PF LaMarcus Aldridge
SG Wesley Matthews
SG Alonzo Gee
C Robin Lopez
SF Dorell Wright

2015 Draft Picks
1-23

Team Needs
The future of Portland's franchise will very much depend on what LaMarcus Aldridge decides to do this summer. If he stays, they are a playoff team again, if he goes they are in rebuilding more. If the latter comes to pass, this pick should be spent on a higher upside, riskier prospect that might fall to them. If the former, then Portland needs to upgrade their bench, long the Achilles heel of this team despite the resources poured into improving the quality of their depth, nothing has really worked for the Blazers. If Aldridge goes or stays, Portland might look to trade Nicolas Batum on draft night to either jumpstart their rebuild or rework their rotation in order to fix the depth issues. A team like Utah or Oklahoma City could offer a lottery pick and young player for Batum.

Potential Fits
The only position Portland probably wouldn't look at is point guard, but even their the depth is suspect behind Damien Lillard. Basically, the Blazers should take the best player on their board to (hopefully) slot into the bench rotation, with an emphasis on shooting and playing defense. Virginia's Justin Anderson is an excellent, versatile defender who shot well last season, but is suspect in that area. Anthony Brown of Stanford lacks Anderson's defensive upside, but he is very solid and a much better shooter. Utah's Delon Wright has the size and defensive ability to play alongside Lillard, but can function as a primary creator off the bench. R.J. Hunter of Georgia State would give Portland a knockdown shooter if Wesley Matthews leaves in free agency. Though he may be drafted very high, there is a chance Kentucky's Trey Lyles is available for Portland, where I think he would be the best of both world's for Portland. Able to contribute as a body off the bench, but with some upside if his shooting improves.

Mock Draft
23. Trey Lyles, F/C, Kentucky

2015 Draft Preview: Chicago Bulls

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Derrick Rose
SG: Tony Snell/E'Twaun Moore
SF: Doug McDermott
PF: Pau Gasol/Nikola Mirotic
C: Joakim Noah/Taj Gibson/Cameron Bairstow

2015 Free Agents
SG Jimmy Butler (RFA) 
PG Aaron Brooks
SF Mike Dunleavy
G Kirk Hinrich (player option)
C Nazr Muhammed 

2015 Draft Picks
1-22

Team Needs
Chicago's biggest need is health and time enough to learn their new coaches system to be able to play as a together as a unit. In more of a player personnel sense, a lot will depend on whether Mike Dunleavy is re-signed. Even if Doug McDermott is ready to take Dunleavy's role, Chicago will still need depth and a defensive stopper to compliment him. New Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg is an offensive-minded coach that uses a lot of movement, tempo, and shooting in his offenses, so he'll likely be looking at players that fit that template. Because of their injury issues, depth up-and-down the roster is always a need for Chicago.

Potential Fits
Looking at prospects that might be available when the Bulls draft, Sam Dekker seems like an ideal fit in Hoiberg's offense. He is offensively versatile, able to play either forward position, handle the ball, get out in transition, and (mostly) shoot the ball. Another way Chicago could replace a potentially departing Dunleavy is with Georgia State's R.J. Hunter, who is more of a two-guard but could flip spots with Jimmy Butler and give Bulls some much needed shooting. Any of the power forwards with jump shooting potential would make sense because of Hoiberg's emphasis on spacing the floor. Lyles, Looney, Wood all would fit. Another option would be a point guard, not that Derrick Rose and Aaron Brooks need upgrading, but a deep, versatile offensive backcourt would give them a lot of offensive options, plus Brooks is a free agent and would still need to be re-signed. Notre Dame's Jerian Grant would be perfect because of his size, but he might not be available.

Mock Draft
22. Sam Dekker, F, Wisconsin

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Saturday, June 20, 2015

2015 Draft Preview: Toronto Raptors

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Kyle Lowry/Greivis Vasquez
SG: DeMar DeRozan
SF: Terrence Ross/James Johnson/Bruno Caboclo
PF: Patrick Patterson
C: Jonas Valenciunas/Lucas Nogueira

2015 Free Agents
SF Landry Fields
PF Tyler Hansbrough
C Chuck Hayes
PF Amir Johnson
C Greg Steimsma 
G Lou Williams

2015 Draft Picks
1-20

Team Needs
Toronto is one of the most interesting teams this offseason because they have a number of free agents and could conceivably not re-sign any of them. Their rotation could look dramatically different from last season, starting with this pick. Point guard is settled and Toronto has a good trio of wings, but their frontcourt is seriously shallow, even if you consider James Johnson a power forward. To make matters worse, Jonas Valanciunas' development has stalled some, creating even more doubt for the future of the position. What type of player Toronto targets is a bigger question mark, do they go for a more offensive-minded player and double-down on their strengths from last season? Or target a strong defender that can help improve their biggest weakness? Because they frequently employ a shooting guard that can't shoot, spacing is ever at a premium for the Raptors so a power forward that can shoot is important, though that is Patrick Patterson current role. 

Potential Fits
Trey Lyles of Kentucky fits that mold of a stretch-four, at least in theory, he really struggled shooting the ball last season. Lyles has the size to play center occasionally, but not the defensive chops and will probably struggled defensively at power forward too. Lyles is a smart player that plays hard, but Toronto would be banking on his shooting developing. There is risk certainly, but at this point in the draft the upside would be worth it. If Christian Wood of UNLV makes it to this pick, he would also be an interesting option because he has similar shooting upside, but a much more athletic profile. Louisville's Montrezl Harrell is defensively ready to contribute and compliments Patterson nicely, however he won't help spacing much. 
Mock Draft
20. Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville

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2015 Draft Preview: Washington Wizards

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: John Wall/Ramon Sessions
SG: Bradley Beal/Martell Webster
SF: Otto Porter Jr.
PF: Nene/Kris Humphries/DeJuan Blair
C: Marcin Gortat

2015 Free Agents
SF Rasual Butler
PG Will Bynum
PF Drew Gooden
F Paul Pierce (player option)
C Kevin Seraphin
G Garrett Temple (player option)

2015 Draft Picks
1-19
2-19(49)

Team Needs
Washington has three clear needs no what happens with Paul Pierce; whether he picks up his option or not, Washington clearly needs a stretch-four to make this offense work at an above-average level. Pierce can fill that role if he returns, but it will become a need again next summer, so why not address it now and give your player a year in the system before you really need them? Backup point guard is another area Washington can upgrade, Ramon Sessions can be useful, but he is a limited player. Because John Wall is so big and can defend shooting guards, a high quality backup guard could play alongside him and kill two birds its one stone because backup shooting guard is also an area of concern.

Potential Fits
Several power forwards in the middle of the first round have potential to be a perimeter power forward including UCLA's Kevon Looney, UNLV's Christian Wood, Arkansas's Bobby Portis, and Trey Lyles of Kentucky. All four could be off the board when Washington pick, but it is likely at least one might be available. Looney and Wood are also long and athletic with shotblocking upside, while Portis is a physical, positional defender who is the best overall offensive player of the bunch. Lyles is interesting, he has great size but isn't a good athlete and despite a reputation otherwise, he was an awful shooter last season. Lyles carries the most risk of the group, but still would have to be considered because if his shooting rounds into form you'd have exactly what you need. Tyus Jones of Duke and Cameron Payne of Murray State are the two point guards most likely to be available when the Wizards pick. Both are similar in that they lack above-average size/physical tools yet have a lot of skills you like as a point guards. Both are good shooters, can see the floor, and are willing passers. Both would likely be an upgrade over Sessions. Another place Washington should look to improve is their depth at shooting guard, with only the oft-injured Martell Webster to back up Bradley Beal, who has been hurt some himself. R.J. Hunter of Georgia State is an ideal fit because he'll give Washington an additional shooting option that can fill in spacing the floor with Beal on the bench. An intersting second round option for the Wizards is Iowa forward Aaron White, who was a very efficient player that shot 36% from three last season.

Mock Draft
19. R.J. Hunter, SG, 
49. Aaron White, PF, Iowa

Thursday, June 11, 2015

2015 Draft Preview: New York Knicks

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Jose Calderon
SG: Langston Galloway/Tim Hardaway Jr.
SF: Cleanthony Early
PF: Carmelo Anthony
C: ???

2015 Free Agents
PF Quincy Acy (RFA)
G Alexey Shved (RFA)
PF Travis Wear (RFA)
C Cole Aldrich
PF Lou Amundson
C Andrea Bargnani
PG Shane Larkin
PF Jason Smith
F Lance Thomas

2015 Draft Picks
1-4

Team Needs 
Considering the Knicks have no definitive rotation players under the age of 30, the Knicks essentially need a whole new roster. At this point, Carmelo Anthony should be playing as many of his minutes as possible at power forward, which means they likely go in a different direction with their single draft pick in this draft. Besides that, any other position is possible: center, wing, shooting guard, even point guard. Jose Calderon still has value but will turn 34 before the start of the next season, so point guard is certainly a direction New York could go it.

Potential Fits
New York has a plethora of options at 4. Assuming Karl Towns and Jahlil Okafor are off the board and Philadelphia takes one of Ohio State SG D'Angelo Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Croatian wing Mario Hezonja, the Knicks will have their choice of one of those remaining two in addition to Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein, Duke wing Justise Winslow, and forward Stanley Johnson of Arizona. Because Kristraps Porzingis fits best at power forward and is a little more of a project, I don't see New York being interested. They have been rumored to be interesting in Trey Lyles, but not even New York is that inept. Barring a trade down, that leaves them to look at Russell, Mudiay, Hezonja, Winslow, Johnson, and Cauley-Stein. Cauley-Stein would step right in as their starting center and defensive anchor, similar to how Tyson Chandler played for them in the past. Johnson and Winslow would be strong wing defenders to put alongside Carmelo that have had some success creating and making shots. Hezonja is a better offensive player on the wing, but might lack as high of a defense ceiling. Mudiay might be the best prospect with the highest upside of this group, but he isn't an ideal fit in the triangle offense, though I think he could still excel there. Russell on the other hand is an ideal fit, and I do think if Philadelphia goes in another direction he will be the pick for them. Because of how empty their roster is, a trade down for more picks is a definite possibility, which will open up an number of other options. Another rumor de jour is swapping picks with Denver in exchange for Ty Lawson.  

Mock
3. Justise Winslow, G/F, Duke

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Tuesday, May 5, 2015

NBA Draft: Potential Role Players


The lottery and much of the first round of the NBA Draft is driven by the search for potential. However, no team is made up of just high-ceiling stars, role players are needed to fit in various facets of both offense and defense, as starters and bench players. There are several archetypes for these roles which every team needs in the modern NBA.

3-and-D
The name says it all, 3-and-D players excel in two areas: defense and shooting. They are usually wing players who don't create their own shot well, but can finish the opportunities made for them by others. The most important way they do this is by spotting up to keep defenses spread out and making them pay if they are helped off of. Danny Green is a good example of a 3-and-D wing, big men can also be 3-and-D players if their primary offense comes from shooting the ball, yet they can still block shots and protect the basket, some might consider Myles Turner to become this, though I think his upside is higher than role player. However, there are two players in this draft of the former description...

Justin Anderson, SF Virginia (6-6, 227) Age: 21
Anderson is questionable as a 3-and-D prospect because there is some question about his shooting. However, there is no issues with his defense: Anderson is built to defend small forwards, despite only average height, Anderson's 6-11 wingspan and powerful build should allow him to hold up physically against even the strongest 3s in the NBA. I'm not sure he has the lateral quickness to defend all shooting guards, but since he'll likely be coming off the bench, coaches will be able to manage his assignments. The shooting aspect is a different matter; after shooting 30% from 3 his first two seasons (on 168 attempts) Anderson dramatically improved that rate to 45% (104). The question is, which shooter will show up on a consistent basis? The answer to that will determine much of Anderson's NBA value.

Anthony Brown, G/F Stanford (6-6, 215) Age: 22
Brown has no concerns about his shooting after he made 132 three pointers the last two seasons on 45% shooting from deep. Defensively, he lacks the upside of Anderson because he isn't going to rack up huge steal or block totals, instead he is just an extremely solid perimeter defender who can check both guards and forwards. Brown adds additional value because he is a decent ball-handler and willing passer, however it is his shooting and defense that will be his primary responsibility at the next level. Because he is 22 and a fifth-year Senior, Brown will likely not be drafted till at earliest the end of the first round, but whoever takes him should be getting a solid contributor in both ends of the floor.

Back-up Point Guard
This is the golden age of point guards in the NBA, there are so many great starting point guards out there is seems like a team is behind the 8-ball without one. There is still, as always, a need for backups: Ramon Sessions (64 games, 11.17 PER), Brian Roberts (72 games, 11.74 PER), Steve Blake (81 games, 9.48 PER!) and many others played prominent roles in the NBA last season and where less than productive. It's easy to overlook point guards in the draft that lack flash and upside, but there is a big need for them in the NBA. In this draft, Tyus Jones and Cameron Payne could be considered for this category, but they have more of a chance to start.

Delon Wright, G Utah (6-5, 190) Age: 23
Wright can be an impact player because of all that he does to help his team win. Wright is an excellent defender who can sick with either guard spot while also disrupting offenses with his aggressiveness and help defense (2.1 steals, 1 block a game). While defense will likely be his calling card, Wright can also play either guard spot on offense as well. Wright sees the floor well and is unselfish (sometimes too much) enough to run an offense. He is most effective slashing to the rim with long strides, but Wright has also shown the ability to make outside shots as well to the point he is good enough from there (36%) to play off the ball as well. Wright is a very smart player with a natural understanding to the game. His defense, passing, and efficient offensive profile will make Wright and instant impact in the NBA, though as a 23 year-old he is upside is limited, what he is now is good enough to be a rotation player.

T.J. McConnell, PG Arizona (6-1, 195) Age: 23
McConnell is a long shot to even get drafted, let alone make a roster, but in a Matthew Dellavedova out-of-nowhere kind of way, he could stick. McConnell is a very steady player with a good understanding of running an offense; he looks to pass and set-up teammates first and to score second. McConnell was actually good at the rim last season (67%) excellent from mid-range (44%) and though he only shot 32% from three, he was above 36% from there his previous three seasons. Defensively, McConnell is physically limited but puts for great effort and has a nose for the ball (2.2 steals a game). McConnell orchestrated an excellent offense at Arizona and was the tip of the defensive spear for one of the best defenses in the country.

Instant Offense
More commonly known as "gunner," "microwave player" and any other number of colloquialisms, but they all refer to the same type of player. The type that can come off the bench and score in bunches. Sometimes they are score-first combo guards who can't run an offense for a sustained amount of time (Isaiah Thomas), defense-negative wing players (Jamal Crawford), or streaky shooters who can make or miss five shots in a row at the drop of a hat (Gerald Green). Whatever the profile, the role is the same: come off the bench, score points.

Terry Rozier, PG Louisville (6-1, 190) Age: 21
Rozier is quite simply a shooting guard built like a smaller point guard, which just isn't the type of player that is likely to be an NBA starter. Rozier is at his best in attack mode, going full bore towards the rim and drawing fouls. He is very fast playing straight ahead in the full-court and difficult to stay in front of or keep from getting to the spots he wants to. Rozier would be a nice fit with an athletic second unit that can run with him and push the pace. He also add nice additional value defending point guards with pressure defense, though his lack of a consistent 3-point shot hurts (33% career shooter). His shot selection leaves a lot to be desired as well, but that isn't a killer in the gunner role.

Michael Qualls, SG Arkansas (6-6, 210) Age: 21
Qualls has exactly the kind of size/length/athleticism of a starting shooting guard in the NBA, but his style of play is more suited to coming off the bench. Qualls is a ball of energy on both ends of the court, attacking the basket with sometimes reckless abandon which usually ends with a dunk, acrobatic layup attempt, or turnover. Defensively it is the same story, he will over pressure his man to the point that it can lose effectiveness; he has the potential to be better but needs to tone it down and focus more of fundamentals. Qualls attacking style will work best off the bench alongside and uptempo point that can take advantage of his ability to fly up the floor for dunks. Right now, this is Qualls ceiling, but if he can improve his defense and become a better shooter then he could become a valuable starter similar to another Mike Anderson-coached player: DeMarre Carroll.

Norman Powell, SG UCLA (6-4, 215) Age: 21
Powell is another undersized shooting guard who is at his best getting to the basket, where he takes nearly half of his shots. While not overwhelmingly quick or athletic, Powell is very crafty and smooth with the ball in his hands with a strong frame and long 6-11 arms. Those physical traits help him on the defensive end as well, where he could be at least average against shooting guards with some work. What is holding Powell back is his jump shot, which is streaky at best, ineffective at worst. Not being able to consistently make 3s cause defenses to play off him and remove some of his ability to drive. However, if a team is just looking for a guard to break down a defense, Powell would fit.

Rashad Vaughn, SG UNLV (6-6, 210) Age: 18
Vaughn is the classic gunner profile, he takes all kinds of shots, some of them cringe-worthy, from all over the court: chucking 3s, putting his head down and driving to the basket, improbably mid-range pullups. However, for as bad as some of his shot selection was (it wasn't all bad) he was actually remarkably efficient on them, posting above-average percentages at all parts of the floor except the rim, where he not very good, most likely a product of so-so athletic ability and shorter arms. So while Vaughn can get hot and knock down bad shots, that is a very questionably translatable skill. Bad shots get harder in the NBA and coaches have increasingly less patience for inefficient players who provide little else aside from scoring. The good news: Vaughn won't turn 19 until August.

Tyler Harvey, SG Eastern Washington (6-4, 185) Age: 21
Harvey has one special skill that makes him a prime candidate for coming off the bench and providing instant offense: shooting. Harvey can make any kind of jump shot you can think of, whether it be spotting up, of the dribble, pulling up, in transition, turning around, of balance, off curls, with a defender in his face, it doesn't matter. There is absolutely no questioning this skill, it is the rest of his game that makes him a candidate to come off the bench. Harvey is decent with the ball in his hands and good enough to function as a secondary ball-handler, but a point guard he is not. Additionally, he has the physical profile to guard point guards, but bigger two guards will likely give him trouble. Harvey is an interesting case, he will certainly have a role as a shooter off the bench ala an Eddie House, but it is also not impossible to see him improving in some areas to the point he is an Eric Gordon-lite, mostly he settles somewhere in the middle as sort of what many thought Jimmer Fredette would be.

Olivier Hanlan, G Boston College (6-4, 190) Age: 22
Playing in the relative obscurity of Boston College basketball, Olivier Hanlan quietly led the ACC in scoring last season, capping off three very successful seasons for the Eagles. Hanlan is very good at creating his own shot and should be able to do it against non-elite defenders in the NBA, he isn't vertically explosive but is very sudden in his movement and changes of direction. He is a prime candidate to come off the bench because he is undersized but good enough of a playmaker to play point guard in small, controlled run against favorable matchups; not a natural at the position by any means, but good enough to get his scoring onto the floor without getting killed defensively.

Joseph Young, SG Oregon (6-2, 185) Age: 22
Young is yet another shooting guard built like a point guard, but he was so good the last three years for Oregon and Houston, (averaging between 18 and 21 points with very good percentages) that teams should definitely give him a look at least as a UDFA. Young is a very good athlete who can create his own shot and score efficiently from all over the floor. If a team has the personnel or system to play Young at point guard, without asking him to handle too many point guard duties, he could really flourish in as a Jason Terry type of player.

3rd/4th Big Man
It is an easy concept to grasp that the bigger a basketball player is, the more likely they will be be to need rest during games and the less likely they are to stay healthy. Therefore, quality frontcourt depth is crucial to success. There are a lot of reasons a big man might come off the bench, sometimes it is to control their defensive matchups (Carl Landry), other times it is because they are limit offensively (Ed Davis) or they are undersized (Trevor Booker). Whatever the reason, there are several potential quality backups in this draft....

Trey Lyles, PF Kentucky (6-10, 235) Age: 19
While consensus may be split on Lyles offensive ability, it is hard to find an argument that his defense will top out at anything but average, with the likelihood he is even worse in that area. Not particularly laterally quick or overall athletic, Lyles will work off the bench because coaches can limit his exposure against the better offensive power forwards in the league. Lyles verses the Blake Griffins of the NBA on a nightly basis? No Thanks, but against Patrick Patterson? I'll take my chances.

Montrezl Harrell, PF Louisville (6-8, 240) Age: 21
Harrell is undersized, but he has the long arms, athletic ability, and non-stop motor to have an impact simply because he will outwork opponents most nights. However, for 35 minutes a game against the best of the best, this may be less effective as Harrell tries to conserve energy. Though, if you cut that down to 18 minutes and let him go all out defending, crashing the glass, and sprinting up and down the floor in transition, Harrell could be valuable and effective.

Jarell Martin, PF LSU (6-10, 236) Age: 20
Martin is very talented and does just about everything you want from a power forward, but the problem is he does it all at an average or slightly above level, lacking an elite skill. This plays well off the bench for many teams because on a night-to-night basis because he will be versatile enough to fill in the gaps needed for whatever combination of starters and bench players you wish to use. One note: Martin had a rep as a better shooter than he has been so far, if his results lives up to that talent then he could become a starter.

Jordan Mickey, PF LSU (6-8, 235) Age: 20
Martin's teammate Jordan Mickey is a different type of player, a defensive and rebound specialist that will be excellent as a matchup piece for use against perimeter based power forwards. When not being used in this role, Mickey will still have value because he is an excellent shot blocker and rebounder. Offensively, Mickey can finish around the basket but at this point that is the only bankable ability on that end, which will limit his potential to make an NBA team.

Dakari Johnson, C Kentucky (7-0, 255) Age: 19
Johnson is an old school center who plays below the rim, rebounds at a solid rate, and does all of his damage in the paint. As a starter, he could hurt spacing and potentially compromise a defensive scheme. However, as a back-up he could excel versus lighter bigs and provide work on the glass. He isn't a dangerous shot blocker, but he can at least use his size to get in the way. I take the under on minutes as a start for Johnson, but the over for years in the league because he will provide quality insurance and depth while beating up on lesser centers.

Aaron White, PF Iowa (6-9, 220) Age: 22
White making it in the NBA will be based almost solely on whether his 3-point shooting from last year is real. Prior to shooting 36% from deep, White never made more 28% of his 3s. If the shooting is real, White could be valuable spacing the floor while also not be a total negative defensively and on the glass, provided his matchups and minutes are managed. If the shooting isn't real, White will have a great career in the D-League or overseas.

Rakeem Christmas, F/C Syracuse (6-9, 250) Age: 23
Christmas was a defensive specialist up until last season when he took a big step forward and carried Syracuse's offense with strong post play. He isn't starter material because his offense player more like a center, with little range, but he lacks the size to play there. However, as an energy big off the bench he can provide plus defense and even score some in the post when presented with a favorable matchup. This may not sound  too sexy, but it is valuable.

Anyone with role player potential that I missed?

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Sunday, October 5, 2014

How Good Will Kentucky Be in 2014-15?

After winning the National Championship in 2012 with one of the most dominant teams in NCAA history, the last two Kentucky teams have fallen short of the expectations created by John Calipari's super recruiting classes. In 2013 they were ranked in the top 5 pre-season, yet fizzled out in the NIT first round. Last year, they started at number one amid talk of 40-0 yet struggled throughout the season, needing a late SEC Tournament run to even lock in a NCAA bid. Once in the tournament they finally put it together and fulfilled pre-season predictions by making it to the championship game, though most weren't expecting 9 regular season losses. This year, expectations may be even higher, with pre-season pundits tripling-down on pre-season Kentucky hype and once again ranking the Wildcats at number 1, despite their falls from the top the last two years to the tune of 23 losses. Looking at the roster, it is hard to disagree:

Backcourt
Last season's starting backcourt returns as the Harrison twins, point guard Andrew and shooting guard Aaron, wisely avoided potential NBA draft night embarrassment to return for their Sophomore season. Before they turned things around last season, the twins were the main source of criticism and justifiably so, they failed to deliver on the hype surrounding them (not their fault) while looking immature, more concerned about complaining to the refs than getting back on defense and displaying very poor body language (their fault). Andrew in particular was abysmal, particularly running the offense and the 37% shooting mark certainly fails to inspire. Aaron scored better, but disappeared often and was very inconsistent from game to game. Their improvement is crucial to the success of the Wildcats, all the big man talent in the world is nice, but if the guys with the ball in their hands struggle, it will be hard for them to be effective. However, even if the struggles of Andrew Harrison continue, all hope is not lost because they have an alternative at the point guard position: Freshman Tyler Ulis. Though he stands but 5-9, Ulis is, unlike Harrison, a true point guard who's primary function is to make his teammates better, which Harrison frequently failed to do last season. Though it might take a lot for Calipari to bench Harrison for Ulis, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened by seasons end. Rounding out the backcourt rotation will likely be Freshman shooting guard Devin Booker, who's calling card is his jumpshot, something the big-man heavy Wildcats will definitely be in need of. He is likely to get plenty of minutes on the wing as well, because Kentucky lack any traditional "small forwards." After those four, however, there isn't much, and backcourt depth could be a significant chink in Kentucky's armor if any of those four go down or don't play well.

Frontcourt
Depth may be an issue in the backcourt, but they have no such issues up front. Returning Junior Alex Poythress will be the favorite to start at power forward, with Sophomore Marcus Lee and Freshman 5-Star Trey Lyles battling for backup minutes. Poythress has been up and down his two years at Kentucky, looking like a nigh-unstoppable force sometimes, but all to often completely disappearing. He is as strong and athletic as the come, but unlike Michael Kidd-Gilchrist before him, he doesn't have the consistent motor yet to have anywhere near that type of impact. Lee is a similar top level athlete, but he has limited experience and isn't particularly skilled. Lyles offers something different, he isn't going to blow anyone away with his physical gifts, but at 6-10, 250 he can score the ball inside and out. Perhaps the pressure behind Poythress will ignite a fire that will get some more consistency out of him. However, if Calipari prefers to keep him in the same role as last year, short bursts off the bench, both Lee and Lyles offer differing skill-sets that can be mixed and matched accordingly. At center, things are just as log-jammed with Junior Willie Cauley-Stein returning as a starter, with Sophomore Darkari Johnson and top 5 incoming recruit Karl-Anthony Towns also in the mix. Cauley-Stein is a tremendous athlete who at 7-1 can radically alter an opposing game plan, however like Poythress he is maddeningly inconsistent. If he falters, Calipari can insert Johnson into the starting lineup (which he did at times last year) who is much more offensively skilled, but struggles defensively. Towns is of course who everyone will want to see, he isn't a defensive force, but is one of the most skilled big men to come along in recent years, featuring a post game, 3-point range, and ball-handling ability. The hope is competition will bring the cream to the top amongst the frontcourt players, but it can also breed discontentment and transfers if things go wrong. 

How to Make it Work On the Court
Kentucky's best offense will likely be screen-heavy, with Towns setting the pick and either rolling or popping, if Poythress can regain his spot-up shooting form, he can set up in the corner, with Booker and Aaron Harrison also spreading the floor. Ulis is better suited than Andrew Harrison to run this kind of offense and it shouldn't come as any surprise if he is the starter eventually, or at least on the court in critical offensive situations. The Wildcats can also play uptempo lineups with Cauley-Stein, Lee, and Poythress, or try to dominate inside using a big, twin towers approach with Towns, Johnson, or Lyles pairing up. Defensively, Kentucky needs their Junior forwards to grow as technical players, and not just rely on their athleticism. Too often Cauley-Stein, Poythress, and Lee as well would fail to box out, rotate correctly, of hedge screens. All three have the ability to dominate defensively, but they can't just outjump opponents every time, they have to play smarter and with a greater grasp of fundamentals. Ulis is the best guard Kentucky has at pressuring the ball, but his height will be an issue against bigger guards, which is where the Harrison's will have to step up their effort. Neither Towns nor Lyles or Johnson have a reputation as top defenders, but if they can use their size and long arms to clog the lane and make opponents shoot over them, Kentucky should break even on that end.

The X Factor
This team is undoubtedly the most talented since 2012 with remarkable frontcourt depth, returning Sophomores and Juniors, and a pretty soft SEC to run through. However, talent isn't enough, and though Calipari is an excellent coach, the pieces have to fit and the players need to buy in. That is what made the 2012 national title winning team so special, they didn't just have talent, their two best players were commited to defense and team first, night and night out and the rest of the team fell in line behind them. So while the Wildcats may have the more NBA talent than the 76ers, they either need upperclassmen (who haven't shown much leadership in the past) to become leaders and tone setters, or else they will have to rely on one of the incoming freshman to take that role, certainly not a given.

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