Tuesday, May 17, 2011

First Round
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (from L.A. Clippers): Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-3, 191)
Despite the mess left by the LeBacle, the future is bright is Cleveland after they won the lottery and also ended up with another top 4 pick. Kyrie Irving seems to be the favorite to be the number 1 pick, though Derrick Williams will get a long looks as well. The Cavaliers have Baron Davis and Ramon Sessions both of whom were actually very good this year with 17 and 19 PERs respectively, but neither are foundation players. Irving doesn't do anything elitely, but he does everything well and most of all, he can run a team as a pure point guard.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Derrick Williams, F Arizona So. (6-9, 248)
If Kyrie Irving goes number 1, and all signs point to it, the Timberwolves will be hoping to find a trade partner to take on this pick. Indeed, they've already begun shopping it for veterans. If they do end up drafting here, Derrick Williams is most likely going to be the pick despite the fact that he doesn't fit into the starting lineup as Minnesota has Kevin Love to play the 4 and Michael Beasley to play small forward, plus they also have Wes Johnson, a natural 3 playing out of position at shooting guard. Still though, Williams is too good a player to pass on. Take the talent and figure out a trade for Beasley or Johnson later.

3. Utah Jazz (from New Jersey): Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-3, 177)
Enes Kanter is the best prospect available here, but with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Derrick Favors all locked in for several years, the Jazz may go in another direction. The difference between Kanter and Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker isn't quite the same as Derrick Williams and the rest of the field, so unlike the Timberwolves at 2, it's worth it for the Jazz, who need a point guard of the future (Devin Harris is too inconsistent and injury prone to build around) to take a slightly lower rated prospect at an area of need. The Jazz have shown in the past that they prefer bigger point guards with shooting ability, so Knight makes more sense than Walker.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Enes Kanter, C Turkey (6-11, 259)
This would be the dream scenario for the Cavs where they'd be getting the two of the best players in the draft and two cornerstones to build around at positions of need. Only if by some miracle they could pair Kyrie Irving with Derrick Williams would they be more pleased. Cleveland have a good center and power forward in Anderson Verajao and J.J. Hickson respectively, but neither is a go-to offensive player. Enes Kanter can develop into an inside/outside offensive threat that can compliment Hickson's bouncy energy and Varajao's elite defensive ability very well.

5. Toronto Raptors: Bismack Biyombo, PF/C Congo (6-9, 245)
The Raptors should be considering a couple players here, but it's clear that if Bismack Biyombo checks out as a legitimate defensive presence in the paint, Toronto has to take him. They've been a joke of a defensive team for a while, including being last in defensive efficiency the last two seasons. They've tried to find a defensive force to rebound and block shots for a couple of years, trying everyone from undersized tough guys Reggie Evans and Joey Dorsey to long armed projects Solomon Alabi and Alexis Ajinca but without much luck. Biyombo may not be able to do much else, but he should be able to provide defensive from day 1 with the upside of a Ben Wallace.

6. Washington Wizards: Jan Vesley, F Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
The Wizards dropped a few spots in the lottery but should be happy if they end up with Jan Vesely. Watching the Wizards last year, the lack of energy and hustle by players not named John Wall or Trevor Booker was disturbing. Vesely is a big time athlete who flies up and down the floor and crushes dunks. He's also got the ability to play and defend the 3 and 5, can shoot out to the NBA range and is always hustling. Vesley also has a high basketball IQ, another thing many of the Wizards lack. He'll be a good fit next to John Wall and another step in the rebuilding of the Wizards.

7. Sacramento Kings: Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 184)
The Kings have finally figured out two things: Tyreke Evans isn't a point guard and leadership and character are important. They've draft talented players with questionable intangibles in the past like Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, and Hassan Whiteside and have paid the price on occasion. Kemba Walker is the type of vocal, hardworking leader that will do wonders for this team. He's also a good fit on the court too because of the experience he got at Connecticut playing with the ball in his hands but also off the ball, which is important because we know that Evans will like to have the ball in his hands.

8. Detroit Pistons: Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-9, 227)
The Pistons would love for Bismack Biyombo to be available when they pick, but Thompson will bring a similar level of athleticism and length to Detroit's frontcourt but with considerably more offensive upside. The Pistons were at their best when they started Chris Wilcox at power forward next to Greg Monroe at center because Wilcox's athletic ability and activity helped offset some of Monroe's defensive struggles. Monroe is the future for Detroit and they'd be wise to find another young player to compliment him.

9. Charlotte Bobcats: Kawhi Leonard, SF San Diego State So. (6-7, 227)
The problem with the Charlotte Bobcats is that they have no plan, or if they do it doesn't make any sense. They draft project players like Gerald Henderson, bury them on the bench with no chance to develop. Then they trade Gerald Wallace, their one good player, for backups and low level draft picks. Charlotte needs to start acquiring young, cheap talent and avoid the terrible contracts that have killed him. Kawhi Leonard has been compared to a young Wallace and would be a nice fit in Charlotte.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Alec Burks, SG Colorado So. (6-6, 193)
The Milwaukee Bucks had an incredible rash of injuries, with almost every core player missing time with injuries. When completely healthy, the Bucks have one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and a plethora of three point shooters but they lack a player who can create offense for themselves and others off the dribble. Brandon Jennings can create for others but struggles to finish at the rim, while Corey Maggette can score easily but only passes if all other options are extinguished. Alec Burks is a dynamic slasher who can finish at the rim and also draws a ton of fouls, yet he also spent some time running the offense at Colorado.

11. Golden State Warriors: Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-10, 230)
The Warriors don't have a coach yet, but barring an entirely dissimilar hire to previous regimes, like Larry Brown or something, it's safe to assume they'll play uptempo, pick and roll based offense again. Obviously, power forward isn't a big need for Golden State because they have David Lee, but depth is a real issue. Jonas Valanciunas is raw, but he's a killer pick and roll big and can really run. He's a nice fit for the Warriors offense and fills a need.

12. Utah Jazz: Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas So. (6-9, 228)
One of the underrated big winners from the NBA combine was Jordan Hamilton. Not only did he shoot very well but he also measured at nearly 6-9 in shoes. Given his well rounded offensive game and rebounding ability, it's not out of the question that Hamilton will be able to play shooting guard, small forward (his natural position) and stretch 4 in the NBA. Both C.J. Miles and Andrei Kirolenko are free agents this summer and it's not out of the question that neither of them will be back. Hamilton not only fills a need on the wing, but at Texas, he also excelled in a very similar system to what the Jazz run.

13. Phoenix Suns: Marcus Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 230)
Many college combo forwards has become unfairly labeled as tweeners, when the definition of both are completely opposite. A combo forward is able to play both the small and power forward positions, while a tweener is stuck between positions, not big or strong enough to play the 4, but too slow or lacking the perimeter skills to play the 3. Marcus Morris is insistent that he is a small forward, but his value lies in his ability to play both and be a matchup problem. The Suns offense is based off of exploiting those favorable matchups, pick-and-roll, and shooting. Morris has the ability to be a standout player in all three of those categories.

14. Houston Rockets: Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 230)
The word is that the Rockets are looking for a big, but with Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, and Jordan Hill they don't have a need for a power forward and there's no centers anywhere close worth taking. After Shane Battier was traded the Rockets lacked a shutdown wing defender, as Chase Budinger struggles to check wings. Chris Singleton, the best defensive player in college basketball, has been great in workouts and had a terrific combine, is really on the rise and could go as high as 6 to the Wizards.

15. Indiana Pacers: Markieff Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 241)
The Pacers are losing Josh McRoberts, Jeff Foster, and Solomon Jones to free agency this summer and are looking to get more of a defensive presence in their frontcourt than Tyler Hansbrough can provide. Markieff Morris tested poorly at the combine, registering only a 31 inch vertical but the tape shows him to be more athletic than that as well as a very good post defender who can also knock down 3 pointers on the offensive end. Morris fills a need for the Pacers and is a good value with little risk.

16. Philadelphia 76ers: Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State Sr. (6-8, 225)
The 76ers have a offensively skilled group of big men but lack a dominant rebounder or defender in the paint. They ranked 18th in rebound rate and 23rd in blocked shots despite having a .500 record last season. If Philadelphia wants to take the next step, they to bolster their rebounding and defense. Despite being only 6-8, Kenneth Faried was the best rebounder in college basketball by far due to a 9 foot standing reach (which is better than Al Horford, Joakim Noah, David Lee, and Blake Griffin among others) and a nonstop motor. Faried also blocked almost 2 and a half shots a game and has the mobility to be a shut down defender.

17. New York Knicks: Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU Sr. (6-2, 205)
Unless he goes into workouts and consistently shuts down opposing prospects in 3-on-3s, there isn't going to be much more to learn about Jimmer Fredette. He is what he is, a great shooter and crafty scorer but a defensive liability. Fortunately for Fredette, there are teams that don't mind that, with Mike D'Antoni and the New York Knicks leading the pack. Fredette cult status and electric play ability will make him a favorite in Madison Square Garden and he'll get a lot of open looks playing with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire.

18. Washington Wizards (from Atlanta): Klay Thompson, SG Washington State Jr. (6-7, 206)
Despite averaging 16.3 points a game after being traded to the Wizards, Jordan Crawford's best fit is as a scoring combo guard off the bench. He's just to shot happy to have in your starting lineup. Klay Thompson has similar scoring ability and is one of the best shooters in the draft (a must if you play with John Wall) but also has a high basketball IQ and should lead to more off a cohesive offense for the Wizards.

19. Charlotte Bobcats (from New Orleans): Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 195)
This is probably the floor for Selby, who's blown up workouts and had an awesome combine (42 inch vertical) to answer some of the questions scouts had about him after a disastrous season at Kansas. He'll be in play for the Rockets, Knicks, and even Suns but because of how this mock falls, he's available for the Bobcats, who are desperate for a point guard and wouldn't hesitate to take the high upside Selby, who has the potential to be the best player in this draft if things break right.

20. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis): Donatas Motiejunas, F Czech Republic (7-0, 220)
It's hard to imagine that Donatas Motiejunas falls this far, but there just aren't a lot of teams looking for a skillset, though I could see the Suns, Wizards, Pacers, 76ers, or Jazz taking him. The Timberwolves have the best foreign scouts in the NBA and are looking to get more skilled in their frontcourt. Motiejunas certainly is skilled, probably the most skilled big in this draft, and is a tremendous, high upside value at this point in the draft.

21. Portland Trailblazers: JaJuan Johnson, PF Purdue Sr. (6-10, 220)
No player helped himself more at the combine than JaJuan Johnson, he measured very well and showed he's the most explosive big man in the draft. Much is made of Johnson's lack of bulk, but he's got functional strength, benching 185 pounds 15 times and there have been other lean big men to have success in the NBA. Johnson's inside-out game, length, athleticism, and production are all NBA worthy. Given their injury issues, Portland's frontcourt could use a talented backup.

22. Denver Nuggets: Marshon Brooks, SG Providence Sr. (6-5, 195)
Landry Fields, Marcus Thorton, Reggie Williams, these three NBA players who were undrafted or second round picks averaged 20 points plus per game in college. Finally, teams are starting to wise up that if you can score in college and you have an NBA game, you can score in the pros. Marshon Brooks is really rising up boards and could even sneak into the back of the lottery after averaging 24.6 ppg in the toughest conference in basketball and showing his well rounded offensive game in workouts.

23. Houston Rockets (from Orlando): Reggie Jackson, PG Boston College Jr. (6-3, 205)
Kyle Lowry had a breakout season last year, but so did Aaron Brooks two years ago before burned out in Houston and got traded at the last trade deadline. Goran Dragic is a free agent and is too unpredictable to be relied on. Reggie Jackson still has some learning to do as far as being a point guard, but with a 7-0 wingspan at 6-3 and great athleticism, Jackson can be a lockdown defender from day one with the potential to be Jrue Holiday type starting point in a year or two. A great investment and value late in the first round.

24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Tyler Honeycutt, G/F UCLA Jr. (6-8, 187)
The Thunder are at their best when playing unselfishly on offense and hustling on defense, they also have a need for a back up to Kevin Durant, Tyler Honeycutt isn't going to wow you with his scoring ability, but he does all the little things well, has a high basketball IQ and led the Pac-10 in blocked shots from the small forward position at over two a game. He won't need to log huge minutes behind Durant, but he'll always help the team when he's on the floor.

25. Boston Celtics: Nikola Vucevic, PF/C USC Jr. (7-0, 260)
The Celtics defensive system requires a big body in the middle who can rebound and clog the lane, Kendrick Perkins was that guy for a while, the they tried Shaq after Perkins was traded but he never got healthy enough to contribute. Nikola measured great at the combine, with a 7-4.5 wingspan and 9-4.5 reach, he's got legit center size and can be that guy in the middle for them.

26. Dallas Mavericks: Tobias Harris, F Tennessee Fr. (6-8, 223)
Tobias Harris is another player who won't ever blow you away and make highlight reel plays, but he'll make a whole team play better with unselfish play and hard work. Harris can play both the 3 and 4 while scoring inside and out and even be a little bit of a point forward. He reminds me of a smaller, rawer Lamar Odom, which is a pretty good value at 26.

27. New Jersey Nets (from L.A. Lakers): Iman Shumpert, G Georgia Tech Jr. (6-6, 222)
Iman Shumpert was the official winner of the NBA combine, measuring great and testing off the charts with a 42 inch vertical and putting up the second most bench reps with 18. On the court, Shumpert is an aggressive, slashing combo guard who struggled in Georgia Tech's awful offense (as many prospects have) while being one of the best perimeter defenders in the country.

28. Chicago Bulls (from Miami): Justin Harper, PF Richmond Jr. (6-9, 228)
It was clear in the playoffs that the Bulls need to find a way to get more scoring and space the floor with a stretch 4 and a shooting guard who can actually shoot and create his own shot. Justin Harper is a great value here as a 6-9, Rashard Lewis-type forward who shot 45% from 3 in college last season. Harper has his warts, he prefers to play on the perimeter and isn't a great rebounder but as a role player to stretch the floor, he has a lot of value.

29. San Antonio Spurs: Nikola Mirotic, SF Serbia (6-10, 226)
If it wasn't for a big buyout, Nikola Mirotic would be a lottery pick. That suits the ever patient San Antonio who don't mind waiting for years for prospects to come to the NBA (Tiago Splitter) and love taking players with the future in mind (Ryan Richards). Mirotic is a very skilled forward with a tremendous shooting stroke and better than you'd expect defensive ability.

30. Chicago Bulls: Charles Jenkins, G Hofstra Sr. (6-3, 216)
It's clear that the Bulls need to find a shooter/scorer at the 2 guard position to space the floor for Derrick Rose and help take some of the pressure off of him scoring-wise. Charles Jenkins is a lot like former Bulls guard Ben Gordon in that he's undersized but strong and can score off the bounce or from deep. Jenkins also has some point guard ability.

Sunday, May 8, 2011

It's true that the 2011 draft is short on elite, potential star prospects, however there's considerable depth in the late first round and even in the second. The superstars take center stage in the playoffs, but it's often the role players that are crucial to winning in the post-season. Taj Gibson has come off the bench and picked up the slack of ailing Carlos Boozer, J.J. Barea used his quickness to dice up the Lakers defense, Tony Allen has taken the task of shutting down the opponents best perimeter player, and James Jones has provided the floor spacing to give the LeBron and Wade driving lanes. None of these players were picked before the 25th pick in the first round. Other such valuable role players can be found late in this draft as well.

Taj Gibson, Bulls (2009, 1st round, 26th overall)
Carlos Boozer has struggled to get going in these playoffs, due to a foot injury and some a lack of confidence. Coming off the bench, Taj Gibson has come off the bench when Boozer has struggled and provided energy to help lift the Bulls second unit. When Gibson comes in the game, he usually blocks a shot or two, tries to dunk a offensive rebound, hits a mid-range jumper, and drops in a shot hook shot. Shot blocking, athleticism, a consistent jumpshot, and some simple post moves are all features of Purdue Senior JaJuan Johnson's game. Johnson is a long, athletic forward with 7-2 wingspan who's blocked 263 shots in his career at Purdue. He also has range out to the college 3 point line and should be able to knock down 18-20 foot jumpers consistently. The concern with Johnson is that while he's a legit 6-10, he only weighs 220-225 pounds, but when Gibson came out of USC he was only 214 pounds. Johnson should go off the board sometime in the early second round and should be player minutes as a backup power forward right away.

J.J. Barea, Mavericks (2001, undrafted)
One of the keys to the Mavericks shocking sweep of the Lakers was J.J. Berea's ability to penetrate and run pick-and-roll. Barea is generously listed at six feet tall (he's probably more like 5-10) but his quickness and tight handle allow him to slip past players to the rim. One of the problems Barea has is finishing at the rim because he's not explosive and lacks great bulk. Washington's Isaiah Thomas is just as short as Barea at 5-9 and has the same quickness and ball handling skills, but has a bigger frame and is an explosive athlete. Barea isn't a great three point shooter, so he usually has to play with the ball in his hands. While Thomas has the floor vision to play the point, he also has the outside shot to play off the ball if need be. As a rich man Barea with great leadership skills and work ethic, Thomas is a lock for the second round with a chance at the late first.

Tony Allen, Grizzles (2004, 1st round, 25th overall)
Despite a wildly inconsistent mixed-bag of production on offense, Tony Allen brings First Team All-Defense every night on the floor. Great athletic ability combined with instincts and tenacity allow Allen to shut down guards and wings game in and game out despite being undersized at 6-4. Allen has decent ball handling skills and can play the point if absolutely necessary but is a bad deep shooter and can be turnover prone. UCLA's Malcolm Lee played point guard for his first two years at UCLA with mixed results but was clearly better suited to play the 2 despite an inconsistent jumpshot. Lee can slash, finish at the rim and find teammates but like Allen, his bread and butter is his defense. Lee is the best perimeter defender in this draft and should find a role as a defensive stopper in the NBA with the upside of a 2 guard with point guard skills. Lee should be drafted late-first/early second.

James Jones, Heat (2003, 2nd round, 50th overall)
Along with Joel Anthony, James Jones is the most important non-Big 3 player on the Heat (you might argue they're more important than Bosh Spice) because of the roles they play. Jones' 3 point shooting ability (43% this season) has provided the spacing to open driving lanes to the basket for LeBron and Wade. Jones isn't the defender he used to be, but he's still a passable defender. Ohio State's David Lighty also shot a 43% from 3 this season and has improved every season from deep. He's also a high effort defender with a high basketball IQ and should be able to have that role player mindset from day 1. Lighty has a chance to get drafted in the second round but could easily go undrafted, I still expect him to make an NBA roster and even get some minutes as a floor spacing backup 2 guard.