Thursday, October 31, 2013

Hot and Slow Starts

Because it is the beginning of the season, every little thing will be blown out of proportion by fans and unfortunately some media members as well. It isn't wise to take to much out of the beginning of the season, but it's also a bad idea to completely disregard everything you see...

Three teams that are expected to compete for a title got off to slow starts in their first game, with the Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, and Los Angeles Clippers all lost their opening games. However, there isn't any reason for these teams to panic, as each one is incorporating new elements into their rotations. The Nets have five new rotation players while the Bulls and Clippers have three a piece, plus Brooklyn and L.A. have new coaches. Chicago struggled during the second quarter in which they were out scored by the Heat by 19, in large part because Jimmy Butler and Luol Deng got in foul trouble and new Bulls Mike Dunleavy and Tony Snell weren't quite on point with their rotations, particularly to the corners. Also Derrick Rose was clearly a little rusty, neither of these issues should last. The Nets on the other hand were tentative offensively, still figuring out how to play together together on that end. The absence of key reserve Andrei Kirilenko didn't help either. For the Clippers, there are signs that are a little more concerning but not dire, they were killed on the boards, including 18 offensive rebounds, and looked lackadaisical at times on both ends. Also, they were beaten by a Lakers team that was lost to Golden State by 31 the next night. However, I would be very surprised if they don't make a move for a big before the playoffs (Emeka Okafor when healthy?) and Doc Rivers should be able to instill some discipline in his young team. Bottom line is these are all very good teams and I see no reason why they shouldn't end up in the top 4 seeds in their respective conferences.

It was great to see the Kings still in Sacramento, with rowdy fans showing up en-masse to support their team on their way to an opening night win, thanks in large part to DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins registered 30 points (13-26 from the field, 4-7 from the line) 14 rebounds, a pair of steals and blocks, and an assist. Cousins has put up big numbers before, but he has rarely looked this good, showing off the whole repertoire on the block with hooks, drives, turnaround bank-shots, and one thunderous throwdown off his own miss. More importantly, he cut out bad jump shots, only shooting when he was wide open, and going 2-of-4 in that case. Perhaps most impressively, he played 39 minutes and still (mostly) brought effort on both ends. Cousins is supremely talented and if he can continue to play this way, Sacramento will be going in the right direction. I think it really helps having Greivis Vasquez playing alongside him. Vasquez played great and fit really well on the team, especially playing alongside Isaiah Thomas, the two combined for 33 points (on 11-18 from the field, 7-9 from the line, 4-6 from deep), and 9 assists to 4 turnovers, but most importantly they played good team basketball. Unfortunately, Marcus Thornton still had the blinders on and jacked up terrible shots, which was the norm in Sacramento in previous seasons, but really stood out against when, at least for one night, the Kings looked like a different team. Also, while he struggled offensively, I liked the way the Ben McLemore competed on the defensive end, which was an issue for him at Kansas. Once he is able to get going on offense, I would expect McLemore to move into the starting lineup with Thornton in a more logical bench role.

Michael Carter-Williams had a tremendous debut in the 76ers victory over the Heat, scoring 22 points (6-10 FG, 4-6 three point, 6-8 FT) with 7 rebounds, 12 assists, 1 turnover, and 9 steals. The boards, assists, and steals shouldn't be too big of a surprise (though nine is a lot, obviously), at 6-6 he can really see the floor and make things happen on defense. However, the offense and lack of turnovers are huge, if he can keep protecting the ball and continue to score somewhat efficiently, the future is very bright, because the rest of his game is there. 

The Detroit Pistons are going to make things very difficult for teams in the paint when they play Andre Drummond, Josh Smith, and Greg Monroe together. If they can keep a consistent offense and not foul too much, their defense could be really disruptive. 

Like the Bulls, Nets, and Clippers, the Pelicans are incorporating a lot of new pieces and while the talent and potential is evident, they need to work on their consistency and figure out how the 3 guard lineups are going to be working together. 

The Pacers, who beat New Orleans, who got big bench contributions in their first game, only mustered 10 points of the pine in this game, which will be something to monitor throughout the season, because the bench will be crucial for them in the playoffs after killing them last year. If Danny Granger returns to form, moving Lance Stephenson to the bench should help a lot.

The Thunder scored 101 points, but they only had 9 assists, including only one by Kevin Durant, who was really passing well in the pre-season. This offense is really going to struggle if they don't move the ball more. Russell Westbrook's return will help this immensely, but he is still out for a couple weeks. I would like to see Durant create a little more for his teammates, because without Westbrook they are really lacking ball movers. Note: shooting 33 free throws doesn't help assist totals, but the point still remains.

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Sunday, October 27, 2013

NBA Award Predictions + All-NBA, Defense, Rookie Team

Coach of the Year: Mark Jackson, Golden State Warriors
This award generally goes to the coach of a team that has a big jump in wins, or battles injuries, both of which are a possibility for the Warriors this season. Andrew Bogut and Steph Curry could miss games, yet the addition of Andre Igoudala and some steps forward by Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes could lead to 50-plus wins (they won 47 last season). Mark Jackson did what seemed impossible a couple of years ago and turned Golden State into an above average defensive and rebounding team, and they could be even better this year. Kevin McHale, Rick Carlisle, and Frank Vogel are other possibilities, though this award is hard to predict. 

Most Improved Player: Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
The last five players to win this award all won it in their third or fourth season, and all but Danny Granger had a big jump in minutes as well. Using that criteria, there are several candidates such as a pair of Jazz players in Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors, as well as Suns guard Eric Bledsoe. Kanter has a chance to step into Al Jefferson's role and put up big numbers, while Favors could lead the league in rebounding, and Bledsoe is a stat-sheet stuffer and highlight factory. Still, I think Butler is the choice. Not only will he get a boast in minutes, up from 26 into the 30s, but he should provide an overall game of offense and defense. Perhaps most importantly he will be a key player on a very good team with national exposure.

Sixth Man of the Year: Andrei Kirilenko, Brooklyn Nets
This award frequently goes to high scoring guards, but I think Andrei Kirilenko will break that trend this season because of just how crucial he will be to Brooklyn during the regular season. As the Nets try to spare Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett for the playoffs, Kirilenko will play a ton of minutes at both spots and fill up the box score while also being the teams wing stopper. Reggie Jackson, Jamal Crawford, Lance Stephenson, Harrison Barnes, and Manu Ginobili will be the primary scorers off the bench for good teams and in the running for this award.

Rookie of the Year: Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic
This is a wide open race for Rookie of the Year as there are no sure-fire performers in big roles this season. Victor Oladipo is the favorite because of his ability to make so many impact plays and put up points, rebounds, assists, steals, and even blocks. He is far from a lock though because he isn't a starter and any number of other rookies could be in the running for this award, it is just a matter of who is able to take ahold of a role and run with it.

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets
The winner of this award is almost always a big man and a key part of a top defense, which is why despite his potential merit I am not sure Dwight Howard will win this award, the Rockets defense just won't be good enough for voters to consider him. That said, when healthy he is the best defensive player in the league and should win this award every year. The usual suspects of Marc Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Tony Allen, LeBron James, Joakim Noah, and Roy Hibbert are also potential condidares for the award.

Most Valuable Player: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
LeBron will likely be most deserving of this, but voter fatigue is a real thing and Durant is getting better every season. He has become a much improved playmaker, and should have a boost in scoring average as well with Russell Westbrook out to start the season. Derrick Rose is another possibility, as is James Harden and Chris Paul, but most likely this will come down to Durant vs. LeBron.

First Team All-NBA
G: Chris Paul, Clippers
G: James Harden, Rockets
F: LeBron James, Heat
F: Kevin Durant, Thunder
C: Dwight Howard, Rockets

Second Team All-NBA
G: Derrick Rose, Bulls
G: Tony Parker, Spurs
F: Carmelo Anthony, Knicks
F: Kevin Love, Timberwolves
C: Marc Gasol, Grizzlies 

Third Team All-NBA
G: Kyrie Irving, Cavaliers
G: Dwyane Wade, Heat
F: Paul George, Pacers
F: Anthony Davis, Pelicans
C: Al Horford, Hawks

First Team All-Rookie

G: Victor Oladipo, Magic
G: Ben McLemore, Kings
G: Michael Carter-Williams, Sixers
F: Anthony Bennett, Cleveland
C: Cody Zeller, Bobcats

Second Team All-Rookie
G: Dennis Schroder, Atlanta
G: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Pistons
F: Otto Porter, Wizards
F: Kelly Olynyk, Celtics
C: Steven Adams, Thunder

First Team All-Defense
G: Mike Conely Jr, Grizzlies
G: Tony Allen, Grizzlies
F: LeBron James, Heat
F: Tim Duncan, Spurs
C: Dwight Howard, Rockets

Second Team All-Defense
G: Chris Paul, Clippers
G: Eric Bledsoe, Suns
F: Paul George, Pacers
F: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
C: Joakim Noah, Bulls