Denver Nuggets Draft Review

Current Roster
PG: Jamal Murray/Emmanuel Mudiay/Jameer Nelson/Monte Morris
SG: Gary Harris/Malik Beasley/Mike Miller
SF: Wilson Chandler/Will Barton
PF: Juancho Hernangomez/Kenneth Faried/Darrell Arthur/Trey Lyles/Tyler Lydon
C: Nikola Jokic

2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
F Danillo Gallinari
C Roy Hibbert

Restricted
C Mason Plumlee

Who They Drafted
1-24 Tyler Lydon, PF Syracuse
2-49 Vlatko Cancar, SF Mege Bemax
2-51 Monte Morris, PG Iowa State
After trading down and aquiring Jazz power forward Trey Lyles, the Nuggest selected... well, a player very similar to Trey Lyles. Tyler Lydon is sweet-shooting forward with deep range on his jumper. A career .398% three point shooter (246 attempts), Lydon projects as a stretch power forward at the next level that can make opponents pay for leaving him but also make a couple plays off the dribble if closed-out against too aggressively. The rest of his game is more worrisome, though a good shot-blocker Lydon is an uncertain defender to to his lack of man-to-man experience, playing in Syracuse's 2-3 zone exclusively in college. Though a solid athlete, Lydon isn't super strong and will probably struggle versus any level of force in the NBA. If he can play passable defense, his ability to shoot and block shots will be value, though it will take a lot of improvement to his body and skills. Even then, with stretchy power forwards Jaun Hernangomez and Tyler Lydon already ahead of him on the roster, not to mention Darrell Arthur and Kenneth Faried, it's hard to imagine Lydon is going get any playing time soon.
Later in the second round, the Nuggets took an international prospect, Vlatko Cancar, a wing that can shoot the ball some and should grow into a weapon in that respect. While not much of a playmaker by any means, Cancar is capable off the dribble, at least when given a path to the rim. Defensively, Cancar lacks great physical tools but is smart and gives good effort. Overall, Cancar has potential to be a solid shoot off the bench but it is harder to see how he becomes more than that, though the Nuggets will certainly give him time to try over in Europe.
Two picks later, the Nuggets drafted one of the best players in college basketball, Monte Morris. Despite handling the ball as the lead guard in a fast, wide-open system at Iowa State, Morris had an historically great assist-to-turnover ratio, a testament to his intelligence, ball-handling, and passing ability. Morris isn't a great athlete and will probably never be a good defender or finisher, however he is such a solid passer and ball-handler as well as a knockdown shooter, I bet he'll end up making it in the league despite the poor record of lower second round picks making it in the NBA.

What They Need Going Forward
Though they have been rumored to be trying to trade for Paul George and Kevin Love, what the Nuggets really need to be doing is using their cap space to sign an impact player or two that won't also compromise their prodigious young talent. Paul Millsap is the obvious choice here and a fit that makes so much sense and will likely be the first call they make when free agency starts.

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2015 Draft Review: Denver Nuggets

2015-16 Depth Chart

PG: Ty Lawson/Erick Green

SG: Emmanuel Mudiay/Randy Foye/Gary Harris/Jamaal Franklin

SF: Danilo Gallinari/Wilson Chandler

PF: Kenneth Faried/J.J. Hickson/Joffery Lauvergne

C: Jusef Nurkic/Nikola Jokic

2015 Free Agents

G/F Will Barton (RFA)

G Ian Clark (RFA)

PF Darrell Arthur

PG Jameer Nelson (player option)

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Congolese-American point guard Emmanuel Mudiay 7th overall
The Nuggets had considered trading up for Mudiay, but lucked out when who I considered to be the second best prospect in the draft, fell to them at pick seven. Emmanuel Mudiay is a perfect fit for Denver's situation and team; he'll allow them to move on from Ty Lawson, getting value from him via trade while also having a prospect with better long-term potential at point guard than Lawson. Mudiay should flourish in Denver because Mike Malone should help him get the most out of his immense defensive potential while also playing to his strengths on offense. Mudiay is terrific fast-breaking in the open floor, which is what the Nuggets want to do in the altitude.When they do get in the half-court, Mudiay excels running pick-and-roll and he'll have plenty of opportunities with some good partners with which to run it. Pick-and-roll should be the bread-and-butter of Denver's halfcourt offense for years to come, which sets the direction they should be heading towards when acquiring players: efficient pick-and-roll players that are good at both starting and finishing fast breaks.

Drafted Serbian point guard Nikola Radicevic 57th overall
Radicevic, who played with fellow draftees Kristaps Porzingis and Guillermo Henangomez at Sevilla, isn't likely to come to the NBA anytime soon but has some potential when he does. A big point guard that is good running pick-and-roll, Radicevic is similar to Mudiay in several ways, though not as good of an athlete or finisher. He is a good lateral athlete though, which combined with his size gives him the potential to be an above-average defender. Where he needs to improve is shooting from range, he made just 25% of his shots in the ACB last season. For a 57th overall pick, Radicevic has better than average odds to make it to the NBA as a backup point guard.

What To Do Next?
Denver needs to figure out which players they are keeping and whom they want to move on from. Lawson is most likely out the door, giving Mudiay a chance to start early on and the Nuggets really should try to get what they can for Faried, who isn't that good of a player and is vastly overpaid. There have been rumors that Gallinari is also on the block, but I am not sure why they would want to. Gallinari is a good player, just 26, and on a good contract. After trades, Denver should target younger players to grow with the core of Mudiay, Nurkic, and possibly Gallinari. Justin Holiday is an athletic wing with solid defensive, ball-handling, and shooting potential. He could duplicate a lot of what Will Barton gave them last year, but with better chance of making outside shots. Derrick Williams would also be an interesting potential lottery ticket. He has always been very good getting out in transition and if he develops a jumpshot, they could have a nice fit for that they want to do.

A bonus trade sure not to happen

Faried (or Gallinari) and Lawson to Boston for Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk, and Gerald Wallace

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2015 Draft Preview: Denver Nuggets

2015-16 Depth Chart

PG: Ty Lawson/Erick Green

SG: Randy Foye/Gary Harris/Jamaal Franklin

SF: Danilo Gallinari/Wilson Chandler

PF: Kenneth Faried/J.J. Hickson/Joffery Lauvergne

C: Jusef Nurkic/Nikola Jokic

2015 Free Agents

G/F Will Barton (RFA)

G Ian Clark (RFA)

PF Darrell Arthur

PG Jameer Nelson (player option)

2015 Draft Picks

1-7

2-27(57) via Portland

Team Needs 

No team's needs are subject to change as much as the Nuggets prior to the draft, as they could hire a coach that could dramatically shift the direction of their system (Mike d'Antoni for instance) and trade pretty much anyone on the roster, including Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried. As things stand now, Denver has a talented roster that injuries, chemistry, and a poorly matched coach ranked. Lawson, Gallnari (when healthy), and Nurkic are all starting quality players, while power forward and shooting guard are areas that can be improved upon. Faried got a big contract that will likely keep him in the starting lineup, but his abilities don't merit it. Harris and Foye are solid players, but are better suited to coming off of the bench. 

Potential Fits

At shooting guard, there probably isn't a one available at pick 7 worth the pick, unless Denver want to play a natural small forward there or Duke's Justise Winslow or Croatian Mario Hezonja in unexpectedly available. Power forward has some more intruiging options, Kristaps Porzingis would be a great fit and Denver has enough options that he wouldn't need to be forced into action too early. Willie Cauley-Stein of Kentucky is an option, but unless Nurkic is traded, those two probably couldn't play together. One solution that would fit the available players would be playing Gallinari at power forward more and drafting a wing like Arizona's Stanley Johnson to play alongside of him. Johnson is strong and versatile enough to cross-match defensively with Gallinari depending on match-ups.

Mock Draft

7. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Seville

57. Joseph Young, SG, Oregon

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Denver Nuggets Draft Review

16. Jusuf Nurkic, C Bosnia (6-11, 280)

The Nuggets traded their lottery pick to the Bulls for two mid-first rounders, and got two lottery talents there anyways. The first and most intruiging of these picks is Jusuf Nurkic, a massive low-post player with great hands and a soft touch. Nurkic is just 19 and likely to stay in Europe for another year or two, but if he continues to develop and focus on conditioning, he could have a big impact on the NBA. The interesting thing about this pick is that the Nuggets are such a fast paced team and Nurkic, who has struggle with weight occasionally, could be an issue getting up and down the court in the Colorado altitude.

19. Gary Harris, SG Michigan State So. (6-5, 205)

With their second first rounder, the Nuggets drafted a higher-floor, lower-ceiling prospect in Gary Harris, who will be the Nuggets long term solution at shooting guard once Arron Afflalo becomes a free agent, likely next summer. Harris was projected to the lottery by many, he has shown the ability to be an excellent shooter (though last season he was very streaky), can handle the ball some, and is a committed, skilled defender. The issues teams likely had was the fact that Harris is not a top athlete, isn't very long, and is undersized (6-2.5 in socks, don't buy the 2-inches he gained in shoes). That lack of physical gifts means he'll have to work extra hard on both ends, which he will, but it narrows the margin for error. It simply is much easier in the NBA if you have length and athleticism. Don't expect a star in Harris, but a Wes Matthews type, if his shooting improves, is a high probability.

41. Nikola Jokic, PF Serbia (6-11, 253)

With a pretty full roster already, the Nuggets elected to draft another international to stash overseas until he can contribute and there is roster space for him. Jokic is intruiging because he has size, length, and a high skill level for a center. He isn't an elite athlete and will likely struggle to defend in space, but a large frame and a 7-3 wingspan should help his interior defense. On offense, he can handle, pass, and shoot, which is where his money will be made. If he can become a consistent shooter, the he could be a valuable piece. There is still a pretty good chance he never plays in the NBA, but Jokic is intruiging non-the-less.   

Projected Lineup

PG: Ty Lawson/Nate Robinson

SG: Arron Afflalo/Gary Harris/Quincy Miller

SF: Danilo Gallinari/Wilson Chandler

PF: Kenneth Faried/Darrell Arthur

C: JaVale McGee/Timofey Mozgov

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What's Up With The Nuggets?

Last season, the Nuggets won 57 games, grabbed the number three seed in the playoffs, and averaged 106.1 points a game, tops in the league* as well as having the 11th most efficient defense in the NBA. So far this season, they are 0-2, including losing on Friday for the first time at home in twenty-four games. Denver is scoring only 93 points a game (23rd in efficiency) while giving up 101.5 (20th in efficiency). Obviously this is a tiny sample-size that is hard to learn much from, but it bears out what is pretty clear on the court, this team is a mess right now and nothing like what it was last season. This isn't surprising considering all the changes they went through in the off-season, from the top of the organization on down. After GM Masai Ujiri left for Toronto, the Nuggets fired George Karl and hired Brian Shaw, a first time head coach who helped the turnaround in Indiana. They also allowed Andre Igoudala to leave in Free Agency, traded Kosta Koufos for Darrell Arthur, and signed Randy Foye, Nate Robinson, and J.J. Hickson. So far they have really looked like they are struggling to make the pieces fit together on both ends of the floor. Shaw, a discipline and defense oriented coach, has been given a number of undisciplined players who struggle on defense. JaVale McGee, who signed a four-year, $44 million deal last summer, was supposed to be a franchise player for them this year, but he logged only 10 and 13 minutes in Denver's first two games. Kenneth Faried, who became a star for them last season and started 80 games, was moved to the bench and had his role decreased. Andre Miller, who Karl came to rely on heavily, has also seen his minutes drop. These were all big parts of last year's team, relegated to minor roles so far. It is hard not to point to their defense as a reason for the decreased roles. But if Shaw doesn't want to play them, he is left with limited options and no real dynamic talent except Ty Lawson, until Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari return from injury. The other issue is that Faried and Miller have two years left on their deals, while McGee has three and Miller, who is 37 and hasn't had a ton of playoff success potentially wanting to bolt for a better team and more minutes, and he does have a reputation as being a little bit of a trouble-maker in the past. Shaw could turn this all around and the team could look completely different in a couple weeks, but the possibility of a pretty big mess is laying in the weeds right now. All is not lost in Denver however, Chandler should be back soon and Gallinari could be back as soon as soon as January, but the issue remains that the Nuggets have a lot of pieces at high prices that their new coach doesn't seem thrilled with. If they continue to struggle, there could be some trades coming.

*They were 5th in offensive efficiency.

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Draft Review: Denver Nuggets

Second Round

Erick Green, G Virginia Tech (46)

The Nuggets traded out of the first round, presumably to save money, and ended up with a talented prospect in the second round none the less. Erick Green is a poor-man's C.J. McCollom, a quick scoring combo guard who can score from all over the floor. I actually like his potential to play point guard full time over McCollom because he is much less turnover prone. With all the changes in Denver, in the front office, coaching, and on the roster, there are a lot of unknowns in Denver, so Green's role could depend on what happens.

Joffrey Lauvergne, PF France (55)

Another prospect to be stashed overseas, Joffrey Lauvergne is athletic and mobile for a player his size, though he needs to add a lot of strength. Lauvergne also has a pretty high skill level with the potential to be a stretch-4 down the line. He needs to get tougher as a rebounder and defender and will turn 22 this year, but there's a chance he turns into something eventually.

Projected Rotation

PG: Ty Lawson/Andre Miller

SG: Evan Fournier/Wilson Chandler

SF: Danilo Gallinari/Jordan Hamilton

PF: Kenneth Faried/Anthony Randolph

C: JaVale McGee/Timofey Mozgov