Five Breakout NBA players in 2017-18

After an offseason full of player movement, the start of the season means new opportunities for many players across the league. These five players not only have bigger roles waiting for them, but also the skills to take advantage and break out.

Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
This is the obvious one, Rodney Hood is sure to be all over breakout/most important player lists this preseason; it's clear that Hood needs to take a step forward for the Jazz to return to the playoffs. With Gordon Heyward gone, Hood is Utah's top remaining perimeter scorer and will be there go-to scoring option. It is important to note that Utah's egalitarian offense system won't feature a lot of iso situations, but no offense can rely completely on ball+player movement, there will plenty of times that individual shot creation will be required and Hood will probably lead the team in such opportunities. He won't replace Heyward 1-to-1, the Jazz will count on Ricky Rubio's passing, a Derrick Favors/Alec Burks health bounce-back, and rookie Donovan Mitchell to fill the void, but Hood will be the biggest piece in a group effort. For and foremost, health will be crucial for Hood, who has two seasons playing less than 60 games sandwiched between a nearly complete season of 79 games. Assuming health, Hood will need to not only sustain what he has been good at in the past but also develop his game to become more of a primary offensive option. Hood's strengths are obvious, he is a very good shooter from deep (.371 from three point range) and at 6-8 he has no trouble getting his shot off, while his patience running pick-and-roll allows him to be effective off the dribble without the burst normally associated with such actions. Where Hood needs to get better is inside the arc; his career fee throw rate (.196) and 2-point percentage are (.458) are well below average. Lacking that burst, Hood will need to hone his craft, using his size to finish over shorter players and become more active off the ball, getting easy shots at the basket via cuts and backscreens. Playing with more than willing passers like Rubio and Joe Ingles should allow Hood to get some easier looks, particularly on the break. Utah isn't a very fast-paced team (though that might change with Rubio) by Gordon Heyward excelled at leaking out ahead of the pack, something Hood should attempt to emulate. It's not that Hood is a lazy player by any means, but he can be somewhat low energy and not assertive hunting his own shot, which is exactly what the Jazz need of him. Also, in a contract year, Hood could really help his own financial situation with a big year, or tank it with a bad one.

Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
The Celtics traded away their two top perimeter defenders and replaced them with a decidedly bad defender (Kyrie Irving), an okay one (Marcus Morris) and a very good one (Gordon Heyward). Heyward and Morris should at least hold serve replacing Jae Crowder but Avery Bradley is a different story. Irving will slot into Isaiah Thomas' role as resident defensive sieve but without Bradley there to match-up on the opposing point guard, that duty will fall in crucial moments on Marcus Smart, who is up to the task on that end of the floor. Whether or not he can replace Bradley's offensive contributions is more of an open question. Smart's size, strength, and tenacity make him one of best, most versatile defender in the league, able to battle bigger players in the post while pestering on the perimeter with quick feet and hands. Despite his willingness to fire away 4+ three-pointers a game, Smart is a terrible three-point shooter (.291 career) and his .422 percentage on two-point shots is just as putrid (compare that with Avery Bradley's .390 and .504 marks, respectively, last season). At this point, defenses have little to fear by leaving him wide open outside the arc, something that will really hurt the Celtics in crunch time, which is exactly when they will need him on the floor. So how can he be successful? In his prime, Tony Allen couldn't shoot and would routinely flub wide-open layups, yet was a successful player for years. Obviously being one of the best perimeter defenders in NBA history helped (Smart is excellent but he isn't quite Allen's level) but that didn't sort out his offense. On that end, Allen was always hunting for easy shots for himself, crashing the glass, sprinting in transition, and was such a threat to cut to the basket that defenses had to pay attention to him even if he wasn't going to shoot. That's the template use for his success, work as hard off the ball offensively as he does on defense. And Smart, while still a really bad shooter, can get hot at times which means that he can take a three from time to time, when wide open, he just shouldn't be so shot happy from there. Like Hood, Smart is also in a contract year and has some financial incentive to be better than he has been.

Allen Crabbe, Brooklyn Nets
With Portland, Crabbe played a crucial role in the Blazers offensive when he was on the floor, spacing the floor for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, courtesy of a .444 shooting percentage from behind the arc. In Brooklyn, Crabbe will be performing a similar task for D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin. However, Russell and Lin are lower usage players than Lillard and McCollum, which should give Crabbe a chance to take even more three than the 3.8 he attempted per game last season. 73 players attemped more threes than Crabbe last season. As a member of the Nets last season, Bojan Bogdanovic attempted 5 threes a game, if Crabbe takes that many or more a game (last season he was at 3.8) and continues to make 40%+ from three, a breakout offensive performance is very possible. Brooklyn took the third most threes last season (more than Golden State believe it or not) and will look to shoot even more this season, a plan that suits Crabbe just fine. The other factor here is that Brooklyn has every incentive to play Crabbe starters minutes, as they just used much of their copious cap space in order to acquire him, and had attempted to get him in the past. More opportunities is often all that it takes for a NBA player to have breakout campaign.

Jerami Grant, Oklahoma City
As of now, the Thunder's backup center is Dakari Johnson, who might not even make the roster. Unless the Thunder find a veteran big man, they'll have to find someone to backup Steven Adams. While a 6-8, 210 pound forward like Jerami Grant might not seem like the prime option, but Grant's defensive potential as someone who can switch and block shots, is actually ideal for playing center in the modern NBA, especially against backup centers who aren't going to kill him in the post. In less advantageous matchups, say against a lumbering post scorer like Jahlil Okafor, Grant would be just as much of a matchup problem because of his ability to make straight line drives and passably shoot from three, skills that will play up as a center. Last season, Grant made .371 of his 144 three-point attempts, something he will look to keep up in his first full year with the Thunder, if not at that level at least at a passable 33-35%, which would be very good if he is playing at center. Likewise, Grant isn't a superb driver but is quick for his size and is a vicious finisher when he gets to the rim. As a backup center, playing with some combination of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, Grant will be asked to space the floor, attack closeouts, and finish lobs, all things he has shown the ability to do in the past. Defensively, Grant is one of the elite shot blockers in the NBA, finishing 11th in the NBA in block percentage (The Greek Freak is the only non-center ahead of him) so Grant has part of the big man skills down pat, though he will drastically need to improve as a rebounder in order to make it work at center. His 7.4 defensive rebound would rank second to last season among centers, besting only 35 year old, ground-bound Boris Diaw. Part of that poor number is the amount of time Grant spent playing small forward (and playing with high level rebounders that grabbed the boards instead) but no doubt he must improve to at least league average on the glass, an accomplishment that seems possible given his length and leaping ability. If Grant can stay a solid shooter and top level defender, while also improving his rebounding, a breakthrough to becoming one of the better backups in the NBA is definitely possible.

Norman Powell, Toronto Raptors
The Raptors roster has changed quite a bit over that last year, with players coming and going. Of the top ten per game minute getters last season, half of them are gone and their replacements are mostly unproven players. On the wing, the Raptors have presumed starters DeMar DeRozan and CJ Miles, then injured rookie OG Anunoby, still raw Bruno Caboclo, and multiple time castoff KJ McDaniels. These are the players Norman Powell is competing with for minutes. In fact it can be argued that Powell is the second best wing on the roster, ahead of Miles. Assuming there are 96 minutes available on the wing, DeRozan will take about 36 of them, leaving 60 minutes to be divided up among the rest. Whether it be from 25 to 30 minutes a game, Powell is sure to see a boost in minutes from the 18 a game he averaged last season. And honestly, as far as talent is concerned, playing time may be all that Powell needs to break out. Despite being relatively short for a wing, Powell is strongly built and has long arms to challenge bigger, stronger players defensively. Offensively, his jumper could stand to be more consistent, he is somewhat streaky, but where Powell stands out is his ability to beat defenders off the dribble and make plays going towards the basket. Powell took 41% of his shots withing 0-3 feet of the basket and made an excellent .606% of those shots. Given his ability defensively and a solid outside stroke, Powell should be the first player off the bench in Toronto, if not the starter by season's end.

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Utah Jazz Draft Review

Current Roster
PG: Ricky Rubio/Dante Exum/Raul Neto/Nigel Williams-Goss
SG: Alec Burks/Donovan Mitchell
SF: Rodney Hood/Joe Johnson
PF: Derrick Favors/Joel Bolomboy
C: Rudy Gobert/Tony Bradley

2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
F Gordon Heyward
G George Hill
C Jeff Withey
G Shelvin Mack

Restricted
G Joe Ingles

Who They Drafted
1-12 Donovan Mitchell, PG/SG Louisville2
1-25 Tony Bradley, C North Carolina
2-55 Nigel Williams-Goss, PG Gonzaga
The Jazz traded up, using their own pick and Trey Lyles to get Louisville's Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell is a super-athletic combo guard that makes up for a lack of size with tremendous length. Early in his career, Mitchell was slasher, a shot-creator who aggressively tried to get to the rim, a skill he still has. Where he improved as a Sophomore, and what got him on NBA radars as a lottery pick, is an improved jumpshot. That jumper, which is still developing, is crucial to his game and will make or break his status in the NBA, as it will open up his dribble-drive game and bring more offensive balance to his team. Defensively, Mitchell is best guarding on the ball and can really be excellent in that area, however he'll need to get better off the ball, staying locked in. The Jazz will use Mitchell in both guard spots off the bench, a sub that can score and defend and most close games in the future at either spot, depending on the matchup.
With their remaining first round pick, the Jazz drafted Tony Bradley, a throwback-style center that plays below the rim and eats up rebounds, particularly offensively (Bradley posted an absured 18.7% offensive rebound rate, which would be the best number in the NBA by over a percentage point and a half) but there are questions about what else he can do. Despite being a poor athlete, Bradley has size and length to finish inside, though he may struggle against bigger NBA centers. Other than that, he doesn't have a ton of moves or range and doesn't move well on the perimeter and though he can block some shot due to his length, doesn't project to be a great rim protector. Just 19, Bradley has a lot of developing to do and if he can improve his body or get more skilled, then he could be a valuable backup, mostly due to the fact that he can offensive rebound so well.
Late in the second round the Jazz took an experienced point guard who was one of the most efficient players in college basketball last season. Nigel Williams-Goss, a high level recuit who transfered from Gonzaga, is similar to Utah's second rounder last season, Marcus Paige, in that he is a well-rounded point guard that doesn't have one real standout asset. He could probably do a good job in spot duty but lacks any real upside. He'll probably share time in the G-League with Paige until needed.

What They Need Going Forward
The Jazz need to do whatever they can to bring back Gordon Heyward, it has to be their number one priority, as it will bring the Jazz from surefire playoff team to fringes of making it. If they get Heyward back, the Jazz are pretty much set. If they lose Heyward they will then have to pivot to making sure they don't lose Joe Ingles and then go from their, deciding whether they want to do a soft rebuild or try to keep contending, perhaps moving their assets for a low level star or clearing the room for a Danilo Gallinari-level player.

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2015 Draft Review: Utah Jazz

2015-16 Depth Chart 

PG: Dante Exum/Trey Burke/Bryce Cotten

SG: Alec Burks/Rodney Hood/Olivier Hanlan

SF: Gordon Heyward/Elijah Millsap/Chris Johnson

PF: Derrick Favors/Trevor Booker/Grant Jerrett

C: Rudy Gobert/Trey Lyles/Jack Cooley

2015 Free Agents

SG Joe Ingles (RFA)

F Jeremy Evans

What They Did On Draft Night

Drafted Kentucky power forward Trey Lyles 11th overall

Considering how much depth and talent Utah has on its roster, taking a shot on a developmental player like Trey Lyes make sense. Lyles isn't a raw player at all, he just needs some time to iron-out the inconsistencies in his game, time he should be able to get in Utah. The Jazz said they envision Lyles as a stretch-four, which is ironic considering right now he is most effective posting-up, moving off the ball, and diving to the basket. Shooting is the lynchpin to Lyles game, his stroke looks very good, but the results were poor during his one season at Kentucky. In high school he shot very well up to 17-feet, but there is no guarantee that the shot develops, leaving the Jazz with a crafty but limited scorer without the athleticism to be an above-average defender. That's not a great return from a lottery pick. However, Utah has done well with all their young players in recent years and Lyles stroke is solid.

Drafted Boston College combo guard Olivier Hanlan 42nd overall

The Jazz went for a more ready-to-contribute option in the second round, drafting a combo guard that should be able to provide quality depth backing up both guard spots. Hanlan is a well-rounded, score-first offensive player that can distribute well enough to occasionally pass as a point guard. Utah's offense frequently plays through Gordon Heyward uses a lot of ball-movement, so Hanlan can fit in a point guard despite not being a pure distributor. Hanlan's ability to both drive and shoot is a nice option to have off the bench, someone who can get hot and carry a second unit every once in a while without completely being a gunner.

What To Do Next?

Utah probably has the deepest roster of promising young talent in the NBA, so there isn't a ton they really need to do this offseason. One area of need is a back-up small forward, preferably one that can shoot. Mike Dunleavy is still a great shooter and would inject a little age and experience to a very young core. Marco Belinelli would also be an ice fit with what Utah wants to do, as would Jared Dudley, who could also play some stretch-four.

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2015 Draft Preview: Utah Jazz

2015-16 Depth Chart 

PG: Dante Exum/Trey Burke/Bryce Cotten

SG: Alec Burks/Rodney Hood

SF: Gordon Heyward/Elijah Millsap/Chris Johnson

PF: Derrick Favors/Trevor Booker/Grant Jerrett

C: Rudy Gobert/Jack Cooley

2015 Free Agents

SG Joe Ingles (RFA)

F Jeremy Evans

2015 Draft Picks

1-12

2-12(42)

2-24(54) via Cleveland

Team Needs

Utah is in a great position, they are quite frankly stacked up and down their roster with young players who are good now and have plenty of room for growth still. If Utah has a need, it is for some depth and shooting in their frontcourt. There aren't many better 3-4-5 combinations in the league tha Gordon Heyward, Derrick Favors, and Rudy Gobert but behind them only Trevor Booker is a sure-fire contributor. Neither Favors nor Gobert is a threat from the perimeter, so finding a big that can space the floor and play alongside either starter would allow them to give more diverse looks and create space for their offense. If Utah does decide to look more at backcourt players, I'd expect them to target players who can make outside shots and move the ball, two tenants of coach Quinn Snyder's offense.

Potential Fits

This is probably the case with every team because what he offers is so valuable, but Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky would be ideal for this team. He could play next to both Gobert or Favors, space the floor and keep the ball moving. I could also see Utah going with upside and drafting Texas center Myles Turner; he will take longer than Kaminsky but has a higher defensive potential. Turner would absolutely be a luxury pick, but Utah needs depth at his positions and could use his jumper in short stretches off the bench as they bring him along slowly. Having three talented bigs is not a problem. As far as guards go, Kentucky's Devin Booker would be a logical fit; he can really shoot and is a smart player who will keep the ball moving. Because they have no glaring needs, Utah could also just draft whomever they believe is the best player regardless of position or look to trade the pick for a veteran. 

Mock Draft

12. Myles Turner, C, Texas

42. J.P. Tokoto, G/F North Carolina

54. Vince Hunter, PF, UTEP

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Utah Jazz Draft Review

5. Dante Exum, G Australia (6-6, 196)

I thought Exum was one of the three plays who had a chance to be a superstar on both ends of the court, so for the Jazz to get him at 5, especially after falling out of the top 4, is a huge win for the a excellent franchise that has fallen on hard times recently. Exum really is a player who could help turn the franchise around and become a star who attracts others to come play with him due to his versatile offensive game, high IQ, and unselfishness. I love the pairing of Exum and Trey Burke because both are intelligent players who can equally score or distribute. Having both on the floor along with Gordon Heyward will really give the Jazz a variety of offense looks with each able to initiated the offense or play off the ball.

23. Rodney Hood, G/F Duke So. (6-9, 208)

Things fell perfectly for Utah, first getting Exum, then filling a need for shooting with one of the best in the draft with their second first round pick. Hood was never the lottery pick he was hyped to be, but as a shooter with elite size he provides value. Hood needs to improve his defense and his ability to attack with the dribble off closeouts, but nearly 6-9 with 40% three-point shooting ability doesn't come along every day. The Jazz needed a knockdown shooter and got one in Hood, who can make shots from beyond the arc or midrange. With Hood spacing the floor, it should create space for Utah's ball-handlers and big man.

Current Roster

PG: Trey Burke/John Lucas III

SG: Dante Exum/Alec Burks

SF: Gordon Heyward (UFA)/Rodney Hood

PF: Derrick Favors/Jeremy Evans

C: Enes Kanter/Rudy Gobert

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NBA Draft: 5 Perfect Fits in the First Round

A big part of the success factor in the NBA draft is find the correct fit for both team and player, whether it be filling a need, utilizing a skillset, or putting the player in a position to maximize strengths and limit weaknesses. While there may be no "perfect" fits, there are several throughout the first round that would really benefit both player and team.

1. Aaron Gordon and the Sacramento Kings

Since drafting DeMarcus Cousins, the Kings have tried Jason Thompson, Thomas Robinson, and Patrick Patterson at the power forward position and never really found the right fit. While his offense still has a ways to go, Aaron Gordon of Arizona has a knack for doing everything else on the court. He is an excellent defender who can guard both forward positions, blocks shots, and create turnovers. While playing next to Cousins doesn't require a top rebounder, Gordon is also very good on the glass. Offensively, Gordon needs to develop his jumper to space the floor, but his ability to handle the ball, pass, and play unselfishly well help to mitigate that. And Cousins can handle more of the inside scoring load anyway, taking pressure off Gordon early in his career. Also, he is very good running the floor which fits nicely alongside Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Williams, and Ben McLemore. Gordon plays very hard on both ends and is willing to do the dirty work to help his team win. I honestly think he would help any team that drafts him, but the Kings are an especially nice fit.

2. Elfrid Payton and the Chicago Bulls

While most point to the Bulls lack of shooting as their biggest issue (it definitely is one), their main issue on offense is the lack of a shot-creator when Derrick Rose is unavailable. They simply lack players who can take the ball and create a shot for themselves or teammates. Louisiana-Lafayette's Elfrid Payton probably won't help the Bulls lack of shooting much, but his ability to penetrate, score, and pass are exactly what Chicago needs behind Rose, and even alongside him. Payton is also excellent at drawing fouls, (another area the Bulls are lacking in) he shot 293 free throws last season, 8.6 per game. Added to all that, Payton is one of the best perimeter defenders in the draft and averaged 2.3 steals a game. Whether Rose is healthy or not, the Bulls need playmakers and Payton is one of the best in the draft.

3. T.J. Warren and the Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks offense is built around bigs Al Horford and Paul Millsap and small guards Jeff Teague or Lou Williams, and shooters. However, they don't have any big wings who are really a threat to score on their own. North Carolina State's T.J. Warren is an unusual player, but an effective scorer. He doesn't shoot from deep very well instead he scores in transition, with floaters and flips around the basket, and by getting to the free throw line. This scoring ability at 6-8, 220 would give the Hawks a different diamension off the bench and provide a scoring punch when the 3s aren't falling, Warren may struggle defensively, which would limit him to a bench role, where he wouldn't have to guard the top opposing forwards.

4. Cleanthony Early and the Utah Jazz
With the number 5 overall pick, the Jazz will have a terrific opportunity to add to their already considerable young talent base. With that pick, they should take the best player available and not worry about needs. However, they also pick at again at 23, and depending on what they do at 5, they should target a wing player who can shoot for a couple of reasons: first of all, they were not good shooting from 3 last season, hitting on only .344% of their three pointers, good for 25th in the league. Secondly, the status of Gordon Heyward is up in the air and they don't have anyone to replace him or back him up. Also with a big man heavy offense (Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, Julius Randle? Noah Vonleh?), and the more shooting they have to space the floor, the better. Wichita State's Cleanthony Early not only fits that need (.375% from 3 last season, great looking stroke) but he is very athletic (40' vertical) and at 6-8, has great size for a wing. As a 23 year-old college Senior, he should be able to contribute right away, albeit with limited upside. He also fits the Jazz' MO of taking proven college performers. 

5. Shabazz Napier and the Los Angeles Clippers

Darren Collison bounced back after some poor seasons and was great as a backup point guard for the Clippers, posting a 16.21 PER. However, he opted out of the last year of his deal and will almost certainly be signed out of the Clippers price range as a starter. If that is the case, the Clippers will be left with no other points on the roster next season. While they may look for a veteran backup, the cheaper option would be to draft one with their late first round pick and use that money to add quality depth to the font court. One of the reasons Collison was so effective is his uptempo style contrasted with Chris Paul's more deliberate pace and Collison could help carry the Clippers bench offense with his scoring and playmaking ability. Of the options available with the 28th pick, Shabazz Napier of Connecticut best fits the Collison role because he can push the tempo, and score in the halfcourt. With a ton of experience playing in at a high level in college, Napier should be more ready to contribute than the average late-first round point guard.

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Draft Review: Utah Jazz

First Round

Trey Burke, PG Michigan (9)

The Jazz filled their biggest need with the best prospect at that position in this draft, it's hard to do much better than that in a draft. Burke is a perfect fit for Utah and should excel with the talent around him. He has bigs to run pick-and-roll with and a couple of promising young wings. Their biggest need in free agency is shooters however, I could see a return of Kyle Korver. Utah gave up the number 21 and 14 picks to get this, but it was worth.

Rudy Gobert, C France (27)

The Jazz are facing losing both Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson to free agency, so frontcourt depth could be a big need soon. I expect them to re-sign one of them, but it will still be a need. Gobert has big time potential and elite length. He could be an elite defender and roll-man, though might take some time to get there and Utah can afford to give it to him.

Projected Rotation

PG: Trey Burke/Mo Williams (UFA)

SG: Alec Burks/Williams

SF: Gordon Heyward/Marvin Williams

PF: Paul Millsap (UFA)/Favors

C: Derrick Favors/Enes Kanter/Rudy Gobert

What Will The Jazz Do at #14?

Shane Larkin, PG Miami So. (6-0, 171)

The Jazz really need to upgrade their point guard position, even if Mo Williams is retained, he's much better as a combo guard off the bench than as a starting point guard. Shane Larkin is a pure point and with tremendous quickness and athleticism, he is also a very good shooter. If he was 2 inches taller he'd be a top 5 pick and could start from day one for the Jazz.

Dennis Schroeder, PG Germany (6-2, 165)

On the other hand, Dennis Schroeder might need a little more time to develop, but could turn into a really good point guard with the proper coaching. He is long, quick, and a good shooter with point guard skills, he just need some seasoning to refine those skills. Most off all he needs to get into the weight room and bulk up some, as he needs to get stronger.

Sergey Karasev, SG Russia (6-7, 195)

If the Jazz aren't satisfied with any of the available point guards, they may target a shooter, as they really struggle from deep last season. Alec Burks has a ton of potential as a slasher, but isn't much of a threat as a shooter. Sergey Karasev would give them a nice shooter off the bench who can also make some plays with a high basketball IQ and passing ability.

Lucas Nogueria, C Brazil (7-0, 220)

Another option for Utah is frontcourt depth, as both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap will be free agents and it's unlikely that both will be back. The Jazz have been fans of Nogueria for a while and he would certainly be a nice fit, especially replacing Jefferson. Nogueria is an long, mobile defensive center with a lot of upside. Enes Kanter and Millsap/Jefferson provide the offense with Nogueria and Derrick Favors as the rim protectors.

Steven Adams, C Pittsburgh Fr. (7-0, 255)

The same concept applies with Adams, who is a defensive minded center. He is more physically developed than Nogueria but also a little less experienced. This would be a nice situation for Adams, who is very raw and needs a lot of time to reach his full potential. In Utah, he'd be the fourth option among big men at least and have plenty of time to grow without pressure.