2015 Draft Review: Washington Wizards

2015-16 Depth Chart

PG: John Wall/Ramon Sessions

SG: Bradley Beal/Martell Webster

SF: Otto Porter Jr./Jared Dudley/Kelly Oubre

PF: Nene/Kris Humphries/DeJuan Blair/Aaron White

C: Marcin Gortat

2015 Free Agents

SF Rasual Butler

PG Will Bynum

PF Drew Gooden

F Paul Pierce (player option)

C Kevin Seraphin

G Garrett Temple (player option)

What a They Did On Draft Night 

Traded up to Draft Kansas wing Kelly Oubre 15th overall

The Wizards traded some second rounders to move up four spots and draft a talented project that could develop into a tremendous fit with their core. Oubre is an excellent physical specimen with explosiveness in every direction and a 7-2 wingspan. He isn't devoid of skill either, Oubre shoots well and can attack in line drives. Barring a flame-out, Oubre should develop into at least a very good 3-and-D guy with the chance for more as he learns the game, develops a mid-range game and gets a little more wiggle with his drives. It may take a year or two, but Oubre could really be a great fit with John Wall: spacing the floor, running in transition, and switching defensively. He might not be ready for a big role from day one, but if the Wizards are patient, the might have very valuable contributor.

Drafted Iowa forward Aaron White 49th overall

White is another potentially excellent fit with the Wizards who has a good chance to make the roster and even get some playing time eventually. White's best attributes are running the floor and finishing at the rim, but Jan Vesely he is not. White shot 36% from three last season (albiet on a limited number of attempts) and 82% from the line, hinting at some stretch-four potential. It's not hard to see how a power forward that is great in transition and can shoot fits with the Wizards. Defense is more of a question, but White moves well and could be solid defending perimeter based bigs, but might struggle against physical post players.

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2015 Draft Preview: Miami Heat

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Mario Chalmers/Shabazz Napier
SG: Tyler Johnson/Zoran Dragic
SF: James Ennis/Bill Henry Walker
PF: Chris Bosh/Josh McRoberts/Udonis Haslam
C: Hassan Whiteside/Chris Anderson

2015 Free Agents
F Michael Beasley (team option)
PG Goran Dragic (player option)
SF Luol Deng (player option)
SG Dwyane Wade (player option)

2015 Draft Picks
1-10
2-10(40)

Team Needs
Assuming that Goran Dragic, Luol Deng, and Dwyane Wade all opt-in or re-sign, Miami's starting lineup will be both set and stacked. However, depth is a real issue. James Ennis has potential to be a solid 3-and-D wing off of the bench if his shooting improves and Mario Chalmers is a decent backup point guard. But other than that... Chris Anderson will be 37 and Josh McRoberts is coming off of a torn meniscus, Considering Wade, Deng and Dragic's proclivity to get injured, Miami needs a better backup plan than Tyler Johnson, Henry Walker, and Shabazz Napier when the inevitable bumps and bruises come along.

Potential Fits
Miami is a team all-in on the next season or two, so they will likely be looking at players who can contribute right away, stick in a rotation, and step into the starting line-up in event of an injury. Looking at the players that will likely be available, Wisconsin power forward Frank Kaminsky is the most NBA ready; he can really shoot and is great handling the ball and passing. His ability to help you as both a high and low usage player is very valuable because he always be contributing. Kaminsky, however, does many of the things they are hoping to get from Josh McRoberts; though having multiple super-skilled big men is never a problem. If Arizona's Stanley Johnson falls to their pick, he would be another strong option as a backup and eventual replacement for Deng. Johnson also has the size to some play small-ball 4 but could guard many shooting guards as well, the kind of versatility Miami likes. Kelly Oubre of Kansas is more of a pure wing than Johnson, but he is more likely to be available and does a lot of things on both ends of the court. Oubre might not be as much of a day one contributor as Johnson or Kaminsky, but he has a higher upside. Kentucky guard Devin Booker's jumpshot will play from day one, and Miami loves shooters, but there are so questions about what else he can do. If Johnson is, as expected, off the board I think Kaminsky makes the most sense. In the second, they should target an NBA-ready role player to provide some inexpensive depth.

Mock Draft
10. Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin
40. Norman Powell, SG, UCLA

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2015 Draft Preview: Charlotte Hornets

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Kemba Walker/Brian Roberts
SG: P.J. Hairston/Lance Stephenson/Troy Daniels
SF: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
PF: Marvin Williams/Cody Zeller
C: Noah Vonleh

2015 Free Agents
C Bismack Biyombo (RFA)
SF Jeff Taylor (RFA)
SG Gerald Henderson (player option)
C Al Jefferson (player option)
PF Jason Maxiell
PG Mo Williams

2015 Draft Picks
1-9
2-9(39)

Team Needs
Charlotte's plans may change if Al Jefferson, now 30, decides to opt out in search one final big contract. Assuming he opts in however, Charlotte will have a heavily invested in frontcourt, including Jefferson and Charlotte's last two top ten picks, Cody Zeller and Noah Vonleh; and if Bismack Biyombo re-signs, he was also a top ten pick. However, neither has shown that they are for certain starting quality players who can take Jefferson's spot after he moves on. Shooting guard is another problem area for Charlotte: Lance Stephenson cannot play alongside Walker, so a starting quality option is needed. There is still hope for P.J. Hairston to be that guy, but he was pretty dreadful as a rookie and isn't the quality of prospect that you pass over a talented wing for. If you find someone who can start over Hairston, but improves, congratulations you now have two good players, which isn't a problem. Whatever they do at shooting guard, one thing is for sure: he better be able to shoot.

Potentials Fits
Both Zeller and Vonleh are young and have potential, but if, for instance, Willie Cauley-Stein fell to them would they consider him? As crazy spending a third straight top ten pick on a big man is, I think they would have to take him provided he is the best prospect on the board. Jefferson may be gone this summer and almost certainly gone next year, while Zeller improved last season it was mostly based on his energy not skill, and Vonleh basically had a lost rookie season, with no real evidence yet that he is a starting quality player. Cauley-Stein isn't perfect and wouldn't help Charlotte's floundering offense, but he would be an excellent defense anchor for years to come. Your core would be Cauley-Stein, Kidd-Gilchrist (a perennial DPOY candidate), and Walker; find shooters at PF and SG and have what could be a dominant defensive team with a good-enough offense. If they do decide to upgrade at shooting guard with their first round pick, any of the top tier of wings would be a good fit. However, it is likely that they are off the board by the ninth pick, which leave two clear options: Kelly Oubre of Kansas and Kentucky's Devin Booker. Oubre has as much upside as anyone in the draft and is a good shooter, but not necessarily a great one. He can also create some for himself off the dribble and strong defensive potential. Booker on the other hand, might be the best shooter in the draft, but a question mark in other areas. I think Oubre fits the value of a top ten pick better, but if Charlotte manage a trade down, Booker would definitely be a possibility. With their second pick, they should draft either a big or a shooting guard, depending on what they do with the ninth pick. Preferably, the second round guard can shoot, but those aren't always easy to come by, meaning they'll will likely have to take a chance on a player who could become a good shooter.

Mock Draft
9. Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
39. Michael Qualls, SG, Arkansas

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2015 Draft Preview: Detroit Pistons

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Brandon Jennings/Spencer Dinwiddie
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Jodie Meeks
SF: Quincy Miller
PF: Ersan Ilyasova/Anthony Tolliver
C: Andre Drummond

2015 Free Agents
PG Reggie Jackson (RFA)
C Joel Anthony
PG John Lucas III
SF Cartier Martin (player option)
C Greg Monroe
SF Tayshaun Prince

2015 Draft Picks
1-8
2-8(38)

Team Needs
With the pre-draft trade of Caron Butler and Shawne Williams for Ersan Ilyasova, Detroit's needs come into sharp focus. Stan Van Gundy gets his stretch-four but now has a gaping hole at small forward, which was already a problem to begin with. Andre Drummond is a foundation piece at center, Illysova will be their primary power forward, Reggie Jackson is almost certain to be re-signed to play point guard, and flawed as they are, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jodie Meeks probably do enough to be passable at shooting guard. That leaves small forward, with only journeyman Quincy Miller to play there, and it isn't even certain that he is a rotation player in the NBA.  

Potential Fits
Luckily for Detroit, there are a number of talented small forward prospects in this draft, one or more of which will likely be available when they draft at pick 8. At least one, if not two of Stanley Johnson of Arizona, Duke's Justise Winslow, and Croatian Mario Hezonja should be available. All three would fit into what Detroit is looking to do. If Detroit looks to go off-board a little, Kansas' Kelly Oubre might have the most talent of any wing in the draft, but with a little more risk attached, which is why he ranks behind the other 3. Assuming Detroit goes wing with their first pick, look for them to target some frontcourt depth in the second, as they have no backup for Drummond and only Anthony Tolliver behind Ilysova, who has had injury problems in the past.

Mock Draft
8. Stanley Johnson, F, Arizona
38. Richaun Holmes, F/C Bowling Green

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On Kelly Oubre and Inconsistency

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After a slow start at Kansas, namely averaging just 10.1 minutes a game in KU's first nine games, Kelly Oubre's production settled into a consistent pattern of inconsistency. In the final twenty-eight games of the season, Oubre scored in double figures fifteen times and single digits thirteen times, including zero points twice.

Towards the end of the season, he appeared to be settling in and, over an eight game stretch, Oubre scored 13.8 points a game on 49% shooting. However, he followed that up with 7.3 points on 36% shooting in the last three games of Kansas' season.

Oubre's inconsistent performance is very reminiscent of several other former Kansas wing players. Below are the five wing players drafted during Bill Self's time at Kansas, listed with their measurables and a quote from ESPN's Chad Ford's  draft Big Board: 

2007 1.13 Julian Wright
Height: 6-9 Weight: 211 Wingspan: 7-2 Reach: 9-0 Vertical: 33.5
"Doesn't always dominate the way he could."

2008 1.13 Brandon Rush
Height: 6-7 Weight: 211 Wingspan: 6-11 Reach: 8-9 Vertical: 35
"Can be too unselfish at times. Seems to fade into the background at times."

2010 1.12 Xavier Henry
Height: 6-7 Weight: 210 Wingspan: 6-11 Reach: 8-9 Vertical: 36.5
"Doesn't create a lot of offense through the dribble. Relies too much on his jumper. He had an up and down season."

2013 1.07 Ben McLemore
Height: 6-5 Weight: 189 Wingspan: 6-8 Reach: 8-5 Vertical: 42
"Can be inconsistent/disappears."

2014 1.01 Andrew Wiggins

Height: 6-8 Weight: 198 Wingspan: 7-0 Reach: N/A Vertical: High
"Can be passive at times."

So we're all the big talents wing talents at Kansas cut from the same inconsistent cloth? On the other hand, of the guards and big men drafted during Bill Self's tenure: Darnell Jackson (2008), Mario Chalmers (2008), Darrell Arthur (2008), Cole Aldrich (2010), Tyshawn Taylor (2012), Thomas Robinson (2012), Jeff Withey (2013), and Joel Embiid (2014), only Arthur was considered inconsistent in college and, oh yeah, he's had one of the best career of this group so far, maybe the best. 

This may be a coincidence, but it seems Bill Self's offensive system at Kansas maximizes point guards and big men, while leaving less of a high-usage role for wing player. It is a pick-and-roll based offense with plenty of post-ups for the bigs, while often relegating wings to spot-up duties. Oubre frequently looked out of the flow of the offense, instead of having plays run for him, he had to create it on his own. It took a transcendent talent like Wiggins to break that trend, which also happened to coincide with Kansas' worst point guard situation in years. Again, maybe a coincidence.

Another possible explanation for Oubre's inconsistency: Bill Self doesn't always trust young players with a big role until they prove that they can function within his system, have success, and show responsibility off the court. Even Joel Embiid barely played starting out at Kansas despite being clearly the second best talent on the team. That isn't to say that Self is doing anything wrong, it is likely that  Embiid, Oubre, or Cliff Alexander weren't ready to take that bigger role and run with it.

Wright played 231 games over four seasons, averaging just 3.9 points a game, before taking his talents overseas. His lack of a true position and poor offensive skill set prevented Wright from carving out any kind of consistent role.

Rush has played 362 games over the course of seven seasons, averaging 7.6 points a game. His development was stalled by a torn ACL (his second since high school) that came just as he was coming into his own as a player.

Henry has played 185 games through five seasons averaging 5.7 points a game. Henry was traded in his second year and never found consistent playing time before finding a role in 2013-14 when he averaged 10 points a game. Unfortunately, just like Rush, Henry suffered an devastating injury, both knee and wrist, that he has been unable to come back from. 

McLemore has played in all 164 games in his first two seasons in the NBA, averaging 10.5 points a game, improving both his shooting and defense from season one to two. 

Wiggins played all 82 games in his rookie season, averaging 16.9 points and easily winning Rookie of the Year.

Wiggins and McLemore have been definite successes so far, while Henry and Rush developed slowly, most likely due to their so-so athleticism and game built on good, not great shooting, but were beginning to hit a stride and develop their games, before being derailed by injuries. Only Wright was an complete bust. Oubre has much more in common with Wiggins and McLemore (great athlete, diverse skillset) than Rush and Henry or Wright. Oubre is not without fault when it comes to his inconsistencies, his habit of occasionally losing defensive focus can't be blamed on the offense for example, but baring an injury, it is hard not to see Oubre sticking in the NBA.

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