Friday, November 3, 2017

Top 12 Rookies: 11/2 Update

This ranking is meant as a current snapshot of how rookies are performing so far this season, not a long team ranking. Obviously I don't think Mike James will be better in a few years than Lonzo Ball. The ranking is obviously subjective and could easily be moved around as it pleases. I've tried to balance individual performance with how well the team plays with them on the floor as best I can
01. Ben Simmons, 76ers
Simmons has been everything expected of him (except those that thought he was the next LeBron) and has shown that all the concerns about his jumper (though he has made a few jumpers) just don't matter because he is just that good at making plays and getting to the basket. His level of feel and instinct is off the charts and Simmons hasn't been a "point forward" he's literally a point guard, running the offense in the halfcourt and playing without another point guard on the floor. He's comfortably settled in with Joel Embiid and is showing chemistry with all of his teammates. When Markelle Fultz returns to both the floor and form, it will be interesting to see how he and Simmons work together. In a rookie class that has been excellent so far, Simmons is still lapping the field.
Season Stats*
8 GP, 34.8 mpg, 18.5 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 7.9 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.4 bpg, 3.3 tpg, .530 FG%, 0-5 3P, .553 FT%
Advanced Stats
21.8 PER, 24.2 USG, .545 TS%, -0.8 Net Rating

02. Jayson Tatum, Celtics
After Gordon Heyward's unfortunate injury on opening night, Tatum has seen a lot more of the floor than originally expected and has been awesome on both ends, though somewhat unsustainably so. Tatum has been super efficient (.637 TS%) and has contributed to the Celtics revitalized (though also somewhat fluky) defensive renaissance. However, Tatum's production and efficiency (boosted by an absurd 49% three point shooting) is likely due to decline, not least of which because he hasn't really been as involved in the offense as his box-score stats might show. Tatum is using a mere 17.3% of the Celtics possessions, which is 185th out of 317 qualified players this season. Basically, Tatum is playing small role and is producing at a super high efficiency. Either he stays in the small role and his unsustainable shooting tails off  or his role increases, which will also likely lead to a dip in efficiency. I am not trying to sound too negative on Tatum, he has been really good this season, particularly defensively and on the glass, but there is also a lot of fluke in his offensive performance so far, which will ultimately be his calling card in the NBA.
Season Stats
8 GP, 32.3 mpg, 13.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.8 apg, 0.8 spg, 1 bpg, 1.9 tpg, .483 FG%, .490 3P%, .829 3P%
Advanced Stats
16.7 PER, 17.3 USG, .638 TS%, +8.4 Net Rating

03. Lauri Markkanen, Bulls
The lone bright spot in an (intentionally) awful Bulls season, Lauri Markkanen has shown that his offensive game has easily translated to the NBA game, as was expected. His shooting is obviously awesome, but his intelligence has also been on display, posting up and scoring on smaller defenders and playing more aggressive when his shot isn't falling. What has been most impressive about Markkanen is that he is doing this with no support and without a point guard to get him good looks. Once he has a good pick-and-roll lead guard to play with that defenses actually respect, Markkanen will be ever more of a threat. One of the most frustrating parts of watching the Bulls is seeing Markkanen get open and be missed by his teammates.
Season Stats
6 GP, 32.5 mpg, 17.2 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.5 bpg, 1.7 tpg, .447 FG%, .395 3P%, .783 FT%
Advanced Stats
17.6 PER, 21.5 USG, .598 TS%, -7.9 Net Rating

04. John Collins, Hawks
Collins has basically duplicated the player he was in college: a super-productive and efficient scorer and high volume rebounder. His per-36 stats are impressive 20.2 points, 13.5 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, though unfortunately that also includes averaging a robust 7 fouls per-36, which explains why he is only playing 19.4 minutes per game. Where Collins has shown improvement, fouls notwithstanding, is defensively. In college, Collins played very hard defensively but didn't have the feel and intelligence to be a good defender. Now, slowly but surely as a part of the Hawks excellent player development program Collins is getting there. It will still be a work in progress, but he's getting there. As a testament to how impactful he has been, the Hawks have been a slight net positive with Collins on the floor, despite the fact that his team is 1-7 and being outscored by 8.2 points a game.
Season Stats
8 GP, 19.4 mpg, 10.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 0.6 apg, 0.4 spg, 0.9 bpg, 0.9 tpg, .507 FG%, .704 FT%
Advanced Stats
21.7 PER, 23.9 USG, .551 TS%, +0.2 Net Rating

05. Mike James, Suns
After a terrible start to the season and Eric Bledsoe's exile, the Suns have turned things around nicely, going 4-1 including some tough East Coast road games. One of the biggest factors, surprisingly, in this turn around, along with firing their coach and actually trying on the floor, has been 27-year old  rookie Mike James. James, who has played all over the world after playing college Lamar, has taken over as starting point guard for the Suns and showed that he is a dynamic shot maker and scorer. The biggest impact he has had is to free up Devin Booker to play a more efficient style of basketball, which has really helped the Suns offense. James is more of a scorer than an true point guard, and perhaps his best role is off the bench in an ideal scenario. However, that is to take nothing away from just how good he has been so far this season.
Season Stats
8 GP, 23.9 mpg, 12.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.3 bpg, 2 tpg, .407 FG%, .423 3P%, .857 FT%
Advanced Stats
16.3 PER, 23.7 USG, .541 TS%, +4.4 Net Rating

06. Kyle Kuzma, Lakers
The biggest (positive) surprise from the 2017 draft has to be Kyle Kuzma, who's combination of offensive skill and never ending confidence has allowed him to ease right in to a productive NBA role. Kuzma is just a super skilled shot creator that fits so well into the space oriented modern NBA because of his ability to get to the basket and find himself open looks, which he is converting at a high level. He's also shown a natural feel as a playmaker and passer. As a three-point shooter, he could definitely become above-average, though he may have to clean up some of his shot selection for that to be the case. Defensively is where the concerns are with Kuzma, who has been really bad on that end and lacks physical upside. He'll need to improve defensively to become a full time starter, instead of simply a rotation player, which his offense should ensure he always is. At 22 there are also questions about just how much better he can become in the NBA. If this is it he is still good, though again without starter upside.
Season Stats
8 GP, 26.8 mpg, 15 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.1 bpg, 1.4 tpg, .543 FG%, .333 3P%, .692 FT%
Advanced Stats
18.1 PER, 21.6 USG, .614 TS%, -5.7 Net Rating

07. Dennis Smith Jr, Mavericks
Smith has missed time and been somewhat limited by an ankle injury so far this season, though his explosiveness has still been on display attacking the basket and getting up to finish. The Mavericks entire offense is malfunctioning a bit to start the season (they really miss Seth Curry's shooting) so it isn't surprising that Smith hasn't been super efficient so far, though some of that is still on him obviously. Smith's playmaking and passing has been awesome (32.8 assist rate) though he is turning the ball over 21% of the time, which is not unexpected (or even necessarily a bad thing). Where Smith is failing is as an efficient scorer, he has been particularly dreadful beyond the arc and okay inside the arc, though he should be better given his ability. Also dragging down his efficiency is awful free throw shooting. The offense should come around as the Mavericks start clicking, particularly when Seth Curry returns and gives Smith a super spaced floor that he can take advantage of. Defensively whether due to the injury or indifference, Smith has been bad and is back to not trying again. That will be crucial to monitor going forward, because he has the potential to be either very good or very, very bad on that end.
Season Stats
7 GP, 28.1 mpg, 12.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 5.1 spg, 0.9 spg, 0.1 bpg, .398 FG%, .259 3P%, .520 FT%
Advanced Stats
9.9 PER, 27.0 USG, .457 TS%, -19 Net Rating

08. Donovan Mitchell, Jazz
After a very rough start shooting the ball this season, Mitchell found his stride in the last three games, making 46% of his shots from the field. Mitchell is definitely a scorer first and foremost, but he has been a little too thirsty to start the season (29.3 usage, which is top 20 in the NBA) and needs to dial it back a bit and take better shots and gun a little less, which should help his overall efficiency. Part of the shots he needs to cut out are contested drives to the basket, which he is not as good at converting as you might suspect, given his inability to jump off of one foot. If he can learn to pass out of those situations, after the defense has collapsed on him Mitchell value will increase quite a bit. Likewise, he'll need to develop more of a floater game and draw more contact as well. There is a lot to like in Mitchell's game, he plays very hard, has tremendous defensive potential, can get anywhere he wants on the floor, and is completely unafraid of taking shots, he just might need to dial it back a bit and become more of a complimentary player for time being.
Season Stats
8 GP, 23.8 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 2 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1 spg, 0.5 bpg, 2.3 tpg, .351 FG%, .316 3P%, .867 FT%
Advanced Stats
9.1 PER, 29.3 USG, .449 TS%, +10.7 Net Rating

09. Lonzo Ball, Lakers
Leaving aside all the hype and silliness, Lonzo Ball has had one of the more interesting starts to as season that I can remember. He has been absolutely dreadful scoring the ball, but has also shown the flashes of passing and effort that have made people fall in love with his game. He has a ton to iron out even when it comes to playmaking and passing, but you cannot teach the kind of intelligence, instincts, and willingness that he has. I think he may always be a so-so scorer and not necessarily the type of player that you run your offense through, but his ability to pass and make winning plays should keep him on the plus side of the ledger for his whole career, even if it isn't always pretty. Basically, I think Ball will be a complimentary player, not a "star" whatever that really means, but one that makes his team better, though still somewhat reliant on his teammates. He isn't going to carry a team on his own, or even as a second banana, but for a team like the Lakers, that want LeBron and Paul George, Lonzo will work perfectly. I don't think he'll make a bad team good, but he'll make a good team great and a great team title contenders.
Season Stats
8 GP, 33.3 mpg, 9.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 6.6 spg, 1.1 spg, 0.8 bpg, 2.8 tpg, .326 FG%, .278 3P%, .556 FT%
Advanced Stats
9.8 PER, 18.4 USG, .393 TS%, -8.2 Net Rating

10. De'Aaron Fox, Kings
Like many rookies at this stage, Fox has shown big flashes but has yet to really be a consistent positive influence on the his team. Fox's speed is as advertised and his 33.1 assist rate is excellent. However, nothing he has been doing has helped Sacramento's woeful offense (they have a 96 offensive rating with him on the floor) and that is a concern, considering that Fox's lack of shooting means defenses will always be at an advantage against him in that respect. He's 3-9 from three on the season, but the jumper that will be most important for him to really lock down is the dribble pullup around the foul line/midrange, which defense will give him, fearing his speed to the basket, so he'll have to make them pay there.
Season Stats
8 GP, 27 mpg, 12.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 5.1 apg, 0.8 spg, 0 bpg, 1.9 tpg, .404 FG%, .333 3P,% .813 FT%
Advanced Stats
14.4 PER, 25.8 USG, .450 TS%, -12.3 Net Rating

11. Johnathan Isaac, Magic
Like Lonzo Ball, Jonathan isn't the type of player to put up huge scoring numbers, but his defense, rebounding, and ability to space the floor means that his team will be a lot better when he is on the floor. Even as a rookie, this has been the case. Isaac's 4.1 block percentage and +12.2 net rating show just how much impact he is able to have, despite the fact that he still finding his way as an offensive player and not nearly the level of defender he can be once he becomes stronger and more experienced. Isaac's role on offense is decidedly small, but he has been very efficient in that role, which is a good sign.
Season Stats
7 GP, 18.4 mpg, 5.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 0.9 apg, 0.9 apg, 1 bpg, 1 tpg, .500 FG%, .333 3P%, 8-8 FT
Advanced Stats:
13.7 PER, 12.7 USG, .619 TS%, 12.2 Net Rating

12. Malik Monk, Hornets
Monk is gonna Monk and that means making a ton of shots in a row then missing a ton of shots in a row. He's shooting 35% from the field on the season, yet he won the Hornets a game in the fourth quarter against the the Bucks, scoring 14 points in four minutes. That is what he does and until he either figures out a way to not be so hot and cold from three or he rounds out his game and get to the line more, he is going to continue like that, which has value, just not as much as his highlights might suggest.
Season Stats
8 GP, 21.9 mpg, 10 ppg, 2 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.3 bpg, 1.5 tpg, .353 FG%, .333 3P%, 4-4 FT
Advanced Stats
8.3 PER, 24.4 USG, .461 TS%, -9 Net Rating

Markelle Fultz (Sixers) is rehabbing his injured shoulder, which will hopefully short out all his shooting issues and get him back near the top of this list once he his healthy and right. Josh Jackson (Suns) has disappointed lately, struggling to score with any level of efficiency and, most disappointingly, not contributing his usual high rebound, steal, and block numbers. OG Anunoby (Raptors) is much healthier than anyone thought he would be, though his offense is still a work in progress, he has the potential to be one of the best defensive wings in the league. Ditto for Semi Ojeleye (Celtics) who may always be limited to role player status, but could be very good at that. Dillon Brooks (Grizzlies) is in Memphis' rotation and he's been effective overall, despite his three not falling yet. Jordan Bell (Warriors) is sporting an absurd +40.6 net rating and even on the loaded Warriors, he is standing out as a member of their second unit and the best backup center on the roster. He's only played 64 minutes though. Frank Ntilikina (Knicks) has shown the kind of elite defensive flashes that was expected, it's also clear that the barely 19 year old isn't ready for big time NBA minutes, though the future looks bright. When health has permitted Jarrett Allen (Nets) to play, he's shown himself to already be a serious deterrent at the rim, though he'll need to learn the ins-and-outs of pick-and-roll offense. Bam Adebayo (Heat) has been the same dunk machine he was in college
while TJ Leaf (Pacers) is shooting the three-ball very well so far this year.

*All Stats as of 11/2
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