Five Breakout NBA players in 2017-18

After an offseason full of player movement, the start of the season means new opportunities for many players across the league. These five players not only have bigger roles waiting for them, but also the skills to take advantage and break out.

Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
This is the obvious one, Rodney Hood is sure to be all over breakout/most important player lists this preseason; it's clear that Hood needs to take a step forward for the Jazz to return to the playoffs. With Gordon Heyward gone, Hood is Utah's top remaining perimeter scorer and will be there go-to scoring option. It is important to note that Utah's egalitarian offense system won't feature a lot of iso situations, but no offense can rely completely on ball+player movement, there will plenty of times that individual shot creation will be required and Hood will probably lead the team in such opportunities. He won't replace Heyward 1-to-1, the Jazz will count on Ricky Rubio's passing, a Derrick Favors/Alec Burks health bounce-back, and rookie Donovan Mitchell to fill the void, but Hood will be the biggest piece in a group effort. For and foremost, health will be crucial for Hood, who has two seasons playing less than 60 games sandwiched between a nearly complete season of 79 games. Assuming health, Hood will need to not only sustain what he has been good at in the past but also develop his game to become more of a primary offensive option. Hood's strengths are obvious, he is a very good shooter from deep (.371 from three point range) and at 6-8 he has no trouble getting his shot off, while his patience running pick-and-roll allows him to be effective off the dribble without the burst normally associated with such actions. Where Hood needs to get better is inside the arc; his career fee throw rate (.196) and 2-point percentage are (.458) are well below average. Lacking that burst, Hood will need to hone his craft, using his size to finish over shorter players and become more active off the ball, getting easy shots at the basket via cuts and backscreens. Playing with more than willing passers like Rubio and Joe Ingles should allow Hood to get some easier looks, particularly on the break. Utah isn't a very fast-paced team (though that might change with Rubio) by Gordon Heyward excelled at leaking out ahead of the pack, something Hood should attempt to emulate. It's not that Hood is a lazy player by any means, but he can be somewhat low energy and not assertive hunting his own shot, which is exactly what the Jazz need of him. Also, in a contract year, Hood could really help his own financial situation with a big year, or tank it with a bad one.

Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
The Celtics traded away their two top perimeter defenders and replaced them with a decidedly bad defender (Kyrie Irving), an okay one (Marcus Morris) and a very good one (Gordon Heyward). Heyward and Morris should at least hold serve replacing Jae Crowder but Avery Bradley is a different story. Irving will slot into Isaiah Thomas' role as resident defensive sieve but without Bradley there to match-up on the opposing point guard, that duty will fall in crucial moments on Marcus Smart, who is up to the task on that end of the floor. Whether or not he can replace Bradley's offensive contributions is more of an open question. Smart's size, strength, and tenacity make him one of best, most versatile defender in the league, able to battle bigger players in the post while pestering on the perimeter with quick feet and hands. Despite his willingness to fire away 4+ three-pointers a game, Smart is a terrible three-point shooter (.291 career) and his .422 percentage on two-point shots is just as putrid (compare that with Avery Bradley's .390 and .504 marks, respectively, last season). At this point, defenses have little to fear by leaving him wide open outside the arc, something that will really hurt the Celtics in crunch time, which is exactly when they will need him on the floor. So how can he be successful? In his prime, Tony Allen couldn't shoot and would routinely flub wide-open layups, yet was a successful player for years. Obviously being one of the best perimeter defenders in NBA history helped (Smart is excellent but he isn't quite Allen's level) but that didn't sort out his offense. On that end, Allen was always hunting for easy shots for himself, crashing the glass, sprinting in transition, and was such a threat to cut to the basket that defenses had to pay attention to him even if he wasn't going to shoot. That's the template use for his success, work as hard off the ball offensively as he does on defense. And Smart, while still a really bad shooter, can get hot at times which means that he can take a three from time to time, when wide open, he just shouldn't be so shot happy from there. Like Hood, Smart is also in a contract year and has some financial incentive to be better than he has been.

Allen Crabbe, Brooklyn Nets
With Portland, Crabbe played a crucial role in the Blazers offensive when he was on the floor, spacing the floor for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, courtesy of a .444 shooting percentage from behind the arc. In Brooklyn, Crabbe will be performing a similar task for D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin. However, Russell and Lin are lower usage players than Lillard and McCollum, which should give Crabbe a chance to take even more three than the 3.8 he attempted per game last season. 73 players attemped more threes than Crabbe last season. As a member of the Nets last season, Bojan Bogdanovic attempted 5 threes a game, if Crabbe takes that many or more a game (last season he was at 3.8) and continues to make 40%+ from three, a breakout offensive performance is very possible. Brooklyn took the third most threes last season (more than Golden State believe it or not) and will look to shoot even more this season, a plan that suits Crabbe just fine. The other factor here is that Brooklyn has every incentive to play Crabbe starters minutes, as they just used much of their copious cap space in order to acquire him, and had attempted to get him in the past. More opportunities is often all that it takes for a NBA player to have breakout campaign.

Jerami Grant, Oklahoma City
As of now, the Thunder's backup center is Dakari Johnson, who might not even make the roster. Unless the Thunder find a veteran big man, they'll have to find someone to backup Steven Adams. While a 6-8, 210 pound forward like Jerami Grant might not seem like the prime option, but Grant's defensive potential as someone who can switch and block shots, is actually ideal for playing center in the modern NBA, especially against backup centers who aren't going to kill him in the post. In less advantageous matchups, say against a lumbering post scorer like Jahlil Okafor, Grant would be just as much of a matchup problem because of his ability to make straight line drives and passably shoot from three, skills that will play up as a center. Last season, Grant made .371 of his 144 three-point attempts, something he will look to keep up in his first full year with the Thunder, if not at that level at least at a passable 33-35%, which would be very good if he is playing at center. Likewise, Grant isn't a superb driver but is quick for his size and is a vicious finisher when he gets to the rim. As a backup center, playing with some combination of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, Grant will be asked to space the floor, attack closeouts, and finish lobs, all things he has shown the ability to do in the past. Defensively, Grant is one of the elite shot blockers in the NBA, finishing 11th in the NBA in block percentage (The Greek Freak is the only non-center ahead of him) so Grant has part of the big man skills down pat, though he will drastically need to improve as a rebounder in order to make it work at center. His 7.4 defensive rebound would rank second to last season among centers, besting only 35 year old, ground-bound Boris Diaw. Part of that poor number is the amount of time Grant spent playing small forward (and playing with high level rebounders that grabbed the boards instead) but no doubt he must improve to at least league average on the glass, an accomplishment that seems possible given his length and leaping ability. If Grant can stay a solid shooter and top level defender, while also improving his rebounding, a breakthrough to becoming one of the better backups in the NBA is definitely possible.

Norman Powell, Toronto Raptors
The Raptors roster has changed quite a bit over that last year, with players coming and going. Of the top ten per game minute getters last season, half of them are gone and their replacements are mostly unproven players. On the wing, the Raptors have presumed starters DeMar DeRozan and CJ Miles, then injured rookie OG Anunoby, still raw Bruno Caboclo, and multiple time castoff KJ McDaniels. These are the players Norman Powell is competing with for minutes. In fact it can be argued that Powell is the second best wing on the roster, ahead of Miles. Assuming there are 96 minutes available on the wing, DeRozan will take about 36 of them, leaving 60 minutes to be divided up among the rest. Whether it be from 25 to 30 minutes a game, Powell is sure to see a boost in minutes from the 18 a game he averaged last season. And honestly, as far as talent is concerned, playing time may be all that Powell needs to break out. Despite being relatively short for a wing, Powell is strongly built and has long arms to challenge bigger, stronger players defensively. Offensively, his jumper could stand to be more consistent, he is somewhat streaky, but where Powell stands out is his ability to beat defenders off the dribble and make plays going towards the basket. Powell took 41% of his shots withing 0-3 feet of the basket and made an excellent .606% of those shots. Given his ability defensively and a solid outside stroke, Powell should be the first player off the bench in Toronto, if not the starter by season's end.

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Oklahoma City Thunder Draft Review

Current Roster
PG: Russell Westbrook/Semaj Christon
SG: Victor Oladipo/Alex Abrines/Terrence Ferguson
SF: Doug McDermott/Kyle Singler/Josh Huestis
PF: Jerami Grant/Domantas Sabonis
C: Steven Adams/Enes Kanter

2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
C Taj Gibson
C Nick Collison
G Norris Cole

Restricted
F Andre Roberson

Who They Drafted
1-21 Terrence Ferguson, SG Adelaide
The Thunder used their first round pick on Terrence Ferguson, an American player who skipped college to play overseas for one season. Ferguson is exactly the kind of player the Thunder needed last year and didn't have, as their roster was loaded with players that could either defend or shoot, but not both. Though he is young and will need time to develop, Ferguson could become one of the better 3-and-D players in the NBA because he already has a nice shooting stroke (though it needs a little polishing) and has the athleticism and most importantly the mindset to be a very good defender of perimeter players. He's also a fast, explosive leaper that should be tremendous in transition with Russell Westbrook. His off the dribble game is what is keeping him from being more than a role player but if he can improve his handle and shot creation ability, his upside would be higher.

What They Need Going Forward
Unless they trade, the Thunder don't have much money to make many moves, however they'll have to do whatever they can to get a real backup point guard that can at least keep the ship afloat while Westbrook is on the bench. And no, Norris Cole is not that player. There are also questions about their power forward spot, where they either have unproven players or more combo-y guys. A proven, above-average PF, even if it is just bringing back Taj Gibson, would go a long way to improving their team.

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2015 Draft Review: Oklahoma City Thunder

2015-16 Depth Chart

PG: Russell Westbrook/D.J. Augustin/Cameron Payne

SG: Anthony Morrow/Dion Waiters/

SF: Kevin Durant/Kyle Singler/Andre Roberson/Josh Huestis/Steve Novak

PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Perry Jones III

C: Steven Adams/Mitch McGary/Dakari Johnson

2015 Free Agents

C Enes Kanter (RFA)

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Murray State point guard Cameron Payne 14th overall

The Thunder seem to have their sights on Cameron Payne since early in the process, and the got their guy. It makes sense since backup point guard was one of the few longterm needs they had, with D.J. Augustin set to become a free agent next summer. This is an ideal situation for Payne because there won't be any pressure on him to come in and be the guy at point guard, instead he'll have a role and be able to play off of the Thunder's stars. Payne fits well in Oklahoma City because he is a good spot-up shooter that can play off the ball when sharing the backcourt with Russell Westbrook, but is also able to take the reins as the lead guard with Westbrook on the bench. It is also good for Payne that he won't have to shoulder starters minutes any time soon, he needs to get stronger before that will be a good idea.

Drafted Kentucky center Dakari Johnson 48th overall

Due to the incredible amount of talent on the Thunder's roster, Dakari Johnson is not likely to see a single minute of action this season, but will play in the D-League the whole year. Johnson is an old school, low-post center that plays very much below the rim. Johnson rebounds well and has great size, but will likely struggle on both ends of the court due to his well below average athletic ability. Playing in the D-League will benefit Johnson because he can learn to use his size to compensate in a low pressure environment.

What To Do Next

The Thunder want to bring back Enes Kanter and Kyle Singler, but besides that their roster is full so there isn't much else they can do unless they look for a trade involving D.J. Augustin in order to clear the way for Payne. Some of the periphery young talent on the roster could also be packaged with a pic or one of the Euro players Oklahoma City has the rights to in order to upgrade the shooting guard spot or clear room for a signing.

A bonus trade sure to never happen

D.J. Augustin to Washington for a second round pick

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Batum, Lamb, Barnes Trades

Hornets get SF Nicolas Batum

Blazers get PF Noah Vonleh, SG Gerald Henderson

I had mentioned Batum as a possible trade candidate to a team like Utah a couple weeks back, but Charlotte hadn't entered my thinking. The trade does make sense on their end, either as a part of their team moving forward or as a trade piece in the draft. He has always been an unappreciated player because he played in Portland with some bigger stars, but Batum is basically the ultimate role player who fits in seamlessly as a great third option. His fit in Charlotte's lineup is a little non-traditional because he'll be playing shooting guard at 6-8, but Batum has always been better against smaller players because he is so long and quick, but not very strong. Offensively, he had a down year last season but considering he has a consistent track record before that as a 35-40% three-point shooter on a high number of attempts, it is pretty safe to write off 2014-15 as a wrist injury aided aberration. This is good because Charlotte needs shooting more than any team in the league and could use Batum's ability to handle the ball and pass. Despite his size, Batum has developed into a quality pick-and-roll player that should help take some of the pressure off of Kemba Walker. Batum definitely fits best as a shooting guard, but can move up to the three on occasion and would make an intruiging small-ball lineup moving Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to power forward. The issue with this deal for Charlotte is that they gave up a lot of years of control over Vonleh for Batum, who will be a free agent in the summer of 2016. He'll turn 27 this year, so it should be safe to re-sign him and get his a good part of his prime years and early decline, but there is always the risk that he walks next summer and leaves Charlotte with nothing.

For Portland, it was first reported that this wasn't a sign of rebuilding and it wouldn't affect their ability to re-sign LaMarcus Aldridge but now ESPN is reporting there is a "99.9% chance" he is leaving in free agency this summer. If that is they case, Portland will have lost their best player Aldridge, their fourth best player Batum and could possibly lose their third best player, free agent Wes Matthews, who is by-the-way coming off of a torn Achilles and turning 29 this year. That smells an awful lot like rebuilding, in which case the acquisition of Vonleh makes a ton of sense: he is young (turning 20), a top 10 pick just last season, and on his rookie deal for three more seasons, with the possibility of staying under team control for almost a decade. However, all of that means absolutely nothing if he isn't any good, which is still up for debate. It's hard to learn anything based off of last season, Vonleh was injured and Charlotte was such a mess that evaluating the 259 minutes he played is rather fruitless. Coming into the draft, Vonleh had a tremendous frame at 6-10, 240 with a 7-4+ wingspan and good athletic testing numbers,  though the question remains whether he can actually effectively use that athletic ability on the court. One thing is clear, Vonleh can rebound. He did so in college and posted a top-20 rebound rate in his limited minutes this season (18.3). Part of Vonleh's appeal is that he projects as a good defender who can shoot from the perimeter at times, though really he didn't do either of those things particularly well in his first year, but like I said, it was basically a lost season. Because of the questions about Vonleh's ability to move laterally, it makes sense for him to play mostly center where he can certainly rebound and protect the rim, even if his help defense isn't outstanding. Offensively, all will rely on his jumper and whether it develops into a consistent weapon. If it does, Portland can get an approximation, albeit a lesser one, of the spacing, solid overall defense, and rebounding that Aldridge provided. 

Henderson is probably just here for the one season remaining on his contract, if indeed Portland decides to rebuild. He is a good defender against both shooting guards and small forward, but a lack of range offensively causes some spacing issues, making Henderson perhaps better suited to a bench role. Another possibility would be to use Henderson as part of a trade to acquire younger, higher upside talent.  Henderson is a useful player that could definitely help boost a contenders bench without a long term financial commitment. 

Thunder get PG Luke Ridnour

Hornets get SG Jeremy Lamb

Grizzlies get SF Matt Barnes

Magic get the draft rights to SF Janis Timma

This wasn't a four team trade, but essentially amounted to one. Ridnour might stick as Oklahoma City's third point guard, but considering they are trying to save money and create roster space, I wouldn't count on it.

Timma's rights are actually a bigger deal the average fan might believe, despite being the 60th overall pick in 2013, Kevin Pelton projects Timma as an above-replacement level player in the NBA. You'll probably read some jokes on the internet about Memphis getting Barnes for nothing, but Timma has actual value. If and when he comes to the NBA is up for debate, but Timma is a good athlete that has steadily developed his jumper to the point of being an above-average shooter.

Barnes is a decent addition to Memphis' wing rotation, at 35 how much is left in the tank is debatable, but he can still shoot, making between 34-36% of his threes last season on a decent number of attempts the last three seasons. Defensively, Barnes has slipped and is now better defending power forwards and could give Memphis some good small ball options, particularly paired with Jeff Green, who annually is better defending small forwards but is much better playing offensively against power forwards. The shooting is the real key, if Memphis can get Barnes to shoot more 3s and continue to make them efficiently, it will be huge for them.

For Charlotte, they gave up a player they weren't going to keep for a talented young player that helps to fix their biggest weakness and has potential to be very good. Lamb never found footing in Oklahoma City but actually played well when on the court. He's shot 35% from three in the NBA was also a career 35% shooter from deep in college and in the D-League as well. Interestingly, from three Lamb shot better in catch and shoot situations in 2013-14 (39%) and shot really well off-the-dribble last season (40%), if he can put those both together consistently Lamb could become a very good shooter. Even if not, Lamb is an above-average three-point shooter who also plays very good defense and has the potential to be even better on that end as he gains experience. At worst, I think if Lamb gets minutes he will be an excellent 3-and-D wing player capable of guarding positions 1-3, provided that the small forwards aren't too strong. Where Lamb, who just turned 23, stands out though is that he has potential for more, a very smooth athlete that can really jump and has 6-11 wingspan, he has a killer crossover and can attack the rim when in attack mode, which isn't as often as it should be. Overall, this is a great acquisition that should net Charlotte a rotation player at worst and help improve Charlotte's greatest weakness: shooting. Combine that with the trade for Batum, particularly by shipping out Henderson's lack of shooting ability, and the Hornet's have turn a big weakness into a relative strength without sacrificing any defense or playmaking ability.

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2015 Draft Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

2015-16 Depth Chart

PG: Russell Westbrook/D.J. Augustin

SG: Anthony Morrow/Dion Waiters/Jeremy Lamb

SF: Kevin Durant/Andre Roberson/Josh Huestis/Steve Novak

PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Perry Jones III

C: Steven Adams/Mitch McGary

2015 Free Agents

C Enes Kanter (RFA)

SF Kyle Singer (RFA)

2015 Draft Picks

1-14

2-18(48)

Team Needs

Oklahoma City's biggest need is to stay healthy for a whole season and with their rotation next year essentially set, any player they draft is likely to be only a bit player at first (unless those pesky injuries strike again). Because of this, Oklahoma City will be looking down the line for needs that may pop up in the future. Next summer D.J. Augustin, Dion Waiters, and Jeremy Lamb could all depart in free agency, leaving Oklahoma City thin in the backcourt. It can't be ruled out that Oklahoma City would use some of their myriad pieces to trade up for a first year impact prospect, they could also trade down or out of the first round altogether.

Potential Fits

Assuming that Oklahoma City is thinking backcourt, there are four main prospects in their range to look at: Duke's Tyus Jones, Murray State's Cameron Payne, Notre Dame's Jerian Grant, and Kentucky's Devin Booker. Jones, Payne, and Grant are all point guards; Jones is the best pure playmaker, but he has questions about his ability to defend and finish, not unlike Augustin. Payne is a good combination of scoring and playmaking, but also has similar size and defense questions. Grant is the best of the three right now (also the oldest) because he can defend either guard spot, but also legitimately play point guard full time if needed. Booker is a better shooter than all three, but isn't a point guard. At just 18 he has the most upside and could be groomed for a year as Anthony Morrow-insurance before taking a bigger role next season. New coach Billy Donovan will want players who can space the floor and move the ball, both of which Booker can do.

Mock Draft

14. Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky

48. Cedi Osman, SF, Andolu Efes

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Oklahoma City Thunder Draft Review

21. Mitch McGary, F/C Michigan So. (6-10, 250)
The Thunder value intangibles like motor and toughness as much as any franchise in the NBA and this draft really showed that. With both of their picks, they targeted un-flashy players who contribute in ways outside of scoring. McGary is actually most similar to current Thunder forward Nick Collison; rebounding on both ends, playing great help defense, passing, finishing around the basket, and hitting mid-range jumpers. McGary probably has more upside than Collison, but if they is all he becomes it would be well worth a late first round pick. The reason McGary fell, probably too far, were concerns about a back injury and a short track record of success. Collison will be a free agent at the end of next season, at which point McGary will take his place. Or, if Kendrick Perkins is amnestied or traded, he could backup Steven Adams at center.

29. Josh Huestis, G/F Stanford Sr. (6-8, 230) 
This pick confused me at first, Josh Huestis was off my radar some, but on further review it makes sense. Huestis is an excellent defender, an elite athlete with long arms and a high basketball IQ which makes his defensive ability play up even more. Down the road he could become one of the best defenders in the league. It is the offense that is the question, the last two seasons he shot .338% from 3, which is better than Jimmy Butler has shot last season. Butler is probably the best comp for Huestis, college Seniors who are great athletes, defense first, can make jumpshots, and contribute offensively due to their smarts and hustle. Maybe Huestis was a reach, but as a replacement to Thabo Sefolosha, which the Thunder need, he makes a lot of sense.

Projected Lineup
PG: Russell Westbrook/Reggie Jackson
SG: Jeremy Lamb/Josh Huestis
SF: Kevin Durant/Andre Roberson/Perry Jones
PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Mitch McGary
C: Kendrick Perkins/Steven Adams

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