First Round
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (from L.A. Clippers): Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-3½, 191)
No change here. Despite the mess left by the LeBacle, the future is bright is Cleveland after they won the lottery and also ended up with another top 4 pick. Kyrie Irving seems to be the favorite to be the number 1 pick, though Derrick Williams will get a long look as well (don't believe the Kanter at 1 rumors). The Cavaliers have Baron Davis and Ramon Sessions both of whom were actually very good this year with 17 and 19 PERs respectively, but neither are foundation players. Irving doesn't do anything elitely, but he does everything well and most of all, he can run a team as a pure point guard.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Derrick Williams, F Arizona So. (6-8¾, 248)
If Kyrie Irving goes number 1, and all signs point to it, the Timberwolves will be hoping to find a trade partner to take on this pick. Indeed, they've already begun shopping it for veterans. If they do end up drafting here, Derrick Williams is most likely going to be the pick despite the fact that he doesn't fit into the starting lineup as Minnesota has Kevin Love to play the 4 and Michael Beasley to play small forward, plus they also have Wes Johnson, a natural 3 playing out of position at shooting guard. Still though, Williams is too good a player to pass on. Take the talent and figure out a trade for Beasley or Johnson later.
3. Utah Jazz (from New Jersey Nets): Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-3¼, 177)
There's a chance that the Jazz go big here, but with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Derrick Favors all locked in for several years, the Jazz may go in another direction. The Jazz need a point guard of the future (Devin Harris is too inconsistent and injury prone to build around) so they'll be targeting either Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker here. The Jazz have shown in the past that they prefer bigger point guards with shooting ability, so Knight makes more sense than Walker. Plus Knight, if given the chance to develop behind Harris for a year or two, has a much higher upside.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Enes Kanter, F/C Turkey (6-11¼, 259)
The latest buzz is that the Cavs might take Jonas Valanciunas, but the same sources are reporting that they might take Enes Kanter at 1, so why wouldn't they also take him at 4? Cleveland seems to want Kanter, even though they have a solid center and power forward in Anderson Verajao and J.J. Hickson respectively, though neither is a go-to offensive player, so that makes sense. They'll hope Enes Kanter can develop into an inside/outside offensive threat that can compliment Hickson's bouncy energy and Varajao's defensive ability very well.
5. Toronto Raptors: Jan Vesely, F Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo was in Belgrade to watch Jan Vesely play in the Serbian league finals. Vesely played well (18 points, 5 rebounds), his team won the league, and Colangelo was reportedly impressed. Colangelo also attended Bismack Biyombo's workout the next day and it appears that they pick might be coming down to these two players. I know Kemba Walker has gotten some hype at this pick, but if Colangelo wants to actually improve his team, he needs to upgrade his teams defense. Biyombo would be better in that respect, but Vesely will also be a boost and is a better overall prospect.
6. Washington Wizards: Jonas Valanciunas, F/C Lithuania (7-0, 244)
The Wizards are determined to follow the Oklahoma City Thunder mold of building a team, so now that they got their star in John Wall they'll attempt to surround him with talent. The way the Thunder did this was by mixing "safe" picks (Jeff Green, James Harden) with high risk, high reward prospects (Serge Ibaka, Russell Westbrook) and I expect the Wizards to do the same. They did it last year in fact, taking a safe player in Trevor Booker and a risky one in Kevin Seraphin in the first round. Watch and see who the Wizards take with their first pick, if it's a guy like Jonas Valanciunas, I'd expect them to take a solid college player with their 18th pick. Or if they go with a guy like Kawhi Leonard or Klay Thompson, then look for a high upside prospect like Donatas Motiejunas later on.
7. Sacramento Kings: Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 184)
The Kings have finally figured out two things: Tyreke Evans isn't a point guard and leadership and character are important. They've draft talented players with questionable intangibles in the past like Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, and Hassan Whiteside and have paid the price on occasion. Kemba Walker is the type of vocal, hardworking leader that will do wonders for this team. He's also a good fit on the court too because of the experience he got at Connecticut playing with the ball in his hands but also off the ball, which is important because we know that Evans will like to have the ball in his hands.
8. Detroit Pistons: Bismack Biyombo, F/C Congo (6-9½, 245)
Now that the Pistons have their ownership problems (mostly) figured out, Joe Dumars is ready to swing for the fences. To me that means they're going with either Bismack Biyombo or Jonas Valanciunas. Biyombo is the defensive presence they've been looking for while Valanciunas has higher upside (but with greater risk) as an overall player. Having seen how Dumars has down things in the past and how well Biyombo would fit with Greg Monroe, who is already a good offensive player but struggles on defense some, I think Biyombo will be the pick.
9. Charlotte Bobcats: Kawhi Leonard, SF San Diego State So. (6-7, 227)
The buzz is that the Bobcats are looking to go with a "safe" pick, but it'll be hard for them to pass on a prospect like Kawhi Leonard, who is somewhat safe in that he'll be able to defend and rebound from day 1, but also has some risk (and upside) in that Leonard's offensive game hasn't completely developed. If it does, you've got an All-Star, if it doesn't you've still got a young Gerald Wallace-type.
10. Milwaukee Bucks: Alec Burks, SG Colorado So. (6-6, 193)
The Milwaukee Bucks had an incredible rash of injuries, with almost every core player missing time with injuries. When completely healthy, the Bucks have one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and a plethora of three point shooters but they lack a player who can create offense for themselves and others off the dribble. Brandon Jennings can create for others but struggles to finish at the rim, while Corey Maggette can score easily but only passes if all other options are extinguished. Alec Burks is a dynamic slasher who can finish at the rim and also draws a ton of fouls (a facet of the NBA game), yet he also spent some time running the offense at Colorado. I have Burks as the fourth best prospect in my rankings so obviously, this pick would be a great value filling a big need in my mind.
11. Golden State Warriors: Klay Thompson, G/F Washington State Jr. (6-7½, 206)
Monta Ellis is being openly shopped by the Warriors, but even if he stays in Oakland, the Warriors will be looking for a bigger 2 guard/wing to play behind Ellis and Dorell Wright. The Warriors reportedly love Thompson and it's easy to see why, he's big, can shoot, has a high basketball IQ, all things that fit well for the Warriors. Frontcourt help is also possible here, with anyone from Tristan Thompson to Marcus Morris in play.
12. Utah Jazz: Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 230)
The Jazz could lose both C.J. Miles and Andrei Kirolenko to free agency and will be looking to replace the defense and shooting they bring to the table. Chris Singleton is the best defender in the draft, as versatile as Kirolenko, and can hit NBA 3 pointers at least as effectively as Miles. Singleton could go as high as 6 to the Wizards so this is a good value for Utah and fills a big need.
13. Phoenix Suns: Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-8¾, 227)
Shooting guard is the Suns biggest need, but with Alec Burks and Klay Thompson off the board, there isn't really one worth taking. The Suns would like to improve their interior defense and rebounding but also need some upside for a rebuilding process. Thompson's defense and rebounding (especially offensive) are NBA ready but he's also got some nice upside on offense. Thompson moves very well off the ball and will look really good finishing pick and rolls with Steve Nash.
14. Houston Rockets: Jordan Hamilton, G/F Texas So. (6-8½, 228)
The Rockets would love to get a center, but unless they want to reach for Nikola Vucevic (a possibility) they'll have to address a different need. Backup point guard and small forward are the other two areas they'd like to upgrade. Jordan Hamilton can arguably play the 2, 3, and 4 positions and has the shooting ability that the Rockets like, he's also the best value at this point as most scouts have him as a lottery pick.
15. Indiana Pacers: Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU Sr. (6-2½, 196)
This is apparently the floor for Fredette, though I think he's a luxury pick for the Pacers. Yes, they need to find a player who can take and make a big shot for them, but unless they plan on playing Fredette big minutes at shooting guard (a bad idea) they'll be drafting a backup point guard when they have major needs in their frontcourt (another bad idea) and even if they plan on playing Fredette at the end of games at shooting guard, they'll have two small guards with him and Darren Collison playing at the same time (yet another bad idea) but still, it's hard to imagine that Fredette will be a bust, he'll be sure to contribute some scoring and leadership, so it's hard to argue with a team jumping on that with the 15th pick of a weak draft.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Marcus Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-8¾, 230)
This is likely the floor for Marcus Morris, who almost every scout likes but few really love. That's kind of the thing with Morris, he's a polished scorer, but not on a go-to NBA level and he can rebound, but isn't elite. He's solid at everything, but doesn't stand out in any way. Still, he's not going to bust and is a nice fit in Philadelphia, who are looking to add depth to their frontcourt.
17. New York Knicks: Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State Sr. (6-7½, 225)
If the Knicks want to make it out of the first round of the playoffs, they need to upgrade their defense and rebounding. Despite being only about 6-8, Kenneth Faried was the best rebounder in college basketball by far due to a 9 foot standing reach (which is better than Al Horford, Joakim Noah, David Lee, and Blake Griffin among others) and a nonstop motor. Faried also blocked almost 2 and a half shots a game and has the mobility/quickness to be a great pick-and-roll defender.
18. Washington Wizards (from Atlanta): Marshon Brooks, SG Providence Sr. (6-5¼, 195)
If the Wizards don't resign Nick Young, it will leave them with basically John Wall and Jordan Crawford in their backcourt. Crawford is better suited to being a third guard and Brooks would be a cheaper replacement for Young, a player Brooks is compared to frequently. Brooks is a nice fit with the Wizards because he's use to playing in an uptempo offense and is a very good spot up shooter, two skills Washington wants in the players it's putting around Wall.
19. Charlotte Bobcats (from New Orleans): Markieff Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9¼, 241)
The Bobcats frontcourt is a mess at this point, they've basically got Tyrus Thomas and D.J. White and that's it. Markieff Morris isn't as polished as his brother (there's a chance that Marcus is taken by Charlotte at 9) but he's bigger, longer, more athletic, a better defender and at least statistically, actually a better shooter.
20. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis): Donatas Motiejunas, F Lithuania (7-0, 220)
It's hard to imagine that Donatas Motiejunas falls this far, but there just aren't a lot of teams looking for his skillset, though I could see the Suns, Wizards, Pacers, 76ers, or Jazz taking him. The Timberwolves have the best foreign scouts in the NBA and are looking to get more skilled in their frontcourt. Motiejunas certainly is skilled, probably the most skilled big in this draft, and is a tremendous, high upside value at this point in the draft.
21. Portland Trailblazers: Nikola Vucevic, C USC Jr. (6-11¾, 260)
The Trailblazers seem to be snakebit when it comes to the health of their bigs, so don't be surprised if they try to add depth in the draft. Nikola Vucevic is getting a ton of buzz and could go in the lottery. It's easy to see why, he's got center size and length (7-4½ wingspan), can score inside and out and rebound. If he was a better athlete or had a longer track record, he'd be a lock for the lottery.
22. Denver Nuggets: JaJuan Johnson, PF Purdue Sr. (6-10, 220)
The Nuggets most likely won't be bringing back Kenyon Martin, so they'll be looking for some frontcourt depth. JaJuan Johnson is long and athletic, can cover a lot of ground of defense but also has a nice face up game. I've compared him in the past to Taj Gibson because he can block shots and hit long 2s, both of which are very valuable in today's NBA and were things that Martin did for Denver.
23. Houston Rockets (from Orlando): Jeremy Tyler, F/C USA (6-10½, 262)
The Rockets need to find a center as Yao Ming is gone and they don't have anything else. Jeremy Tyler is a swing-for-the-fences pick but he's got NBA center size and should be able to play defense from an early stage with some upside to develop into a solid offensive player as well.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Tobias Harris, F Tennessee Fr. (6-7¾, 223)
The Thunder are at their best when playing unselfishly on offense and hustling on defense, they also have a need for a back up to Kevin Durant, Tobias Harris isn't going to wow you with his scoring ability, but he does all the little things well, has a high basketball IQ and can rebound and play both forward positions. A little like former Thunder forward Jeff Green.
25. Boston Celtics: Nikola Mirotic, SF Serbia (6-10, 226)
Unless Jeremy Tyler or Nikola Vucevic are here, there isn't really a player who'll help the Celtics as presently constituted. However, with Doc Rivers sticking around for a few more years, they'll be looking to remain competitive post-Big Three. Nikola Mirotic won't be coming to the NBA anytime soon, but he's very skilled and would be a lottery pick if he didn't have a contract in Europe.
26. Dallas Mavericks: Darius Morris, PG Michigan So. (6-5¼, 190)
Believe it or not, Jason Kidd won't be playing forever and no matter how much the Mavericks love J.J. Barea and Roddy Beaubois, neither guy is a starting point guard in the NBA. Darius Morris is a similar player to Kidd in that he's got great size and court vision but lacks elite athleticism. Morris also needs to follow in the path of Kidd and improve his jumpshot.
27. New Jersey Nets (from L.A. Lakers): Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 195)
The Nets will be swinging for the fences here and hoping they can find a solid player to pair with Deron Williams and Brook Lopez. Josh Selby could go as high as 17 but falls due to the myriad of questions surrounding him. He's best with the ball in his hands but can play alongside Williams while providing some scoring off the bench.
28. Chicago Bulls (from Miami): Justin Harper, F Richmond Sr. (6-8¾, 228)
It was clear in the playoffs that the Bulls need to find a way to get more scoring and space the floor with a stretch 4 and a shooting guard who can actually shoot and create his own shot. Justin Harper is a great value here as a 6-9, Rashard Lewis-type forward who shot 45% from 3 in college last season. Harper has his warts, he prefers to play on the perimeter and isn't a great rebounder but as a role player to stretch the floor, he has a lot of value.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Davis Bertans, SF Latvia (6-10, 210)
In the past couple drafts, the Spurs have taken some shots on high upside unknowns and kept them overseas to develop. Davis Bertans is a tremendous shooter, has a high basketball IQ, and a high overall skill level. He's also only 18 years, so there's a lot of upside here as well.
30. Chicago Bulls: Reggie Jackson, G Boston College Jr. (6-3, 205)
The Bulls clearly need to find a well rounded shooting guard who can create his own shot, shoot, and defend. Reggie Jackson, who had lottery buzz not too long ago, is a combo guard who can play alongside Rose due to his shooting ability, but can also create off the dribble and will be able to check 2s due to freak athleticism and a 7-0 wingspan.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Friday, June 10, 2011
2011 NBA Big Board
Top 30
1. Derrick Williams, F Arizona So. (6-8¾, 248)
2. Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-3½, 191)
3. Jan Vesely, F Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
4. Alec Burks, SG Colorado So. (6-6, 193)
5. Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-8¾, 227)
6. Enes Kanter, F/C Turkey (6-11¼, 259)
7. Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-3¼, 177)
8. Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 184)
9. Kawhi Leonard, SF San Diego State So. (6-7, 227)
10. Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-10, 230)
11. Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 230)
12. Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas So. (6-8½, 228)
13. Klay Thompson, SG Washington State Jr. (6-7½, 206)
14. Bismack Biyombo, F/C Congo (6-9½, 245)
15. Donatas Motiejunas, F Lithuania (7-0, 220)
16. Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State Sr. (6-7½, 225)
17. JaJuan Johnson, PF Purdue Sr. (6-10, 220)
18. Marcus Morris, F Kansas Jr. (6-8¾, 230)
19. Marshon Brooks, SG Providence Sr. (6-5¼, 195)
20. Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU Sr. (6-2½, 196)
21. Markieff Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9¼, 241)
22. Tobias Harris, F Tennessee Fr. (6-7¾, 223)
23. Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 195)
24. Justin Harper, F Richmond Sr. (6-8¾, 228)
25. Charles Jenkins, G Hofstra Sr. (6-3¼, 216)
26. Tyler Honeycutt, SF UCLA So. (6-8¼, 187)
27. Reggie Jackson, PG Boston College Jr. (6-3, 205)
28. Malcolm Lee, G UCLA Jr. (6-5½, 198)
29. Darius Morris, PG Michigan So. (6-5¼, 190)
30. Shelvin Mack, PG Butler Jr. (6-2½, 209)
1. Derrick Williams, F Arizona So. (6-8¾, 248)
2. Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-3½, 191)
3. Jan Vesely, F Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
4. Alec Burks, SG Colorado So. (6-6, 193)
5. Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-8¾, 227)
6. Enes Kanter, F/C Turkey (6-11¼, 259)
7. Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-3¼, 177)
8. Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 184)
9. Kawhi Leonard, SF San Diego State So. (6-7, 227)
10. Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-10, 230)
11. Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 230)
12. Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas So. (6-8½, 228)
13. Klay Thompson, SG Washington State Jr. (6-7½, 206)
14. Bismack Biyombo, F/C Congo (6-9½, 245)
15. Donatas Motiejunas, F Lithuania (7-0, 220)
16. Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State Sr. (6-7½, 225)
17. JaJuan Johnson, PF Purdue Sr. (6-10, 220)
18. Marcus Morris, F Kansas Jr. (6-8¾, 230)
19. Marshon Brooks, SG Providence Sr. (6-5¼, 195)
20. Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU Sr. (6-2½, 196)
21. Markieff Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9¼, 241)
22. Tobias Harris, F Tennessee Fr. (6-7¾, 223)
23. Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 195)
24. Justin Harper, F Richmond Sr. (6-8¾, 228)
25. Charles Jenkins, G Hofstra Sr. (6-3¼, 216)
26. Tyler Honeycutt, SF UCLA So. (6-8¼, 187)
27. Reggie Jackson, PG Boston College Jr. (6-3, 205)
28. Malcolm Lee, G UCLA Jr. (6-5½, 198)
29. Darius Morris, PG Michigan So. (6-5¼, 190)
30. Shelvin Mack, PG Butler Jr. (6-2½, 209)
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
First Round
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (from L.A. Clippers): Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-3, 191)
Despite the mess left by the LeBacle, the future is bright is Cleveland after they won the lottery and also ended up with another top 4 pick. Kyrie Irving seems to be the favorite to be the number 1 pick, though Derrick Williams will get a long looks as well. The Cavaliers have Baron Davis and Ramon Sessions both of whom were actually very good this year with 17 and 19 PERs respectively, but neither are foundation players. Irving doesn't do anything elitely, but he does everything well and most of all, he can run a team as a pure point guard.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Derrick Williams, F Arizona So. (6-9, 248)
If Kyrie Irving goes number 1, and all signs point to it, the Timberwolves will be hoping to find a trade partner to take on this pick. Indeed, they've already begun shopping it for veterans. If they do end up drafting here, Derrick Williams is most likely going to be the pick despite the fact that he doesn't fit into the starting lineup as Minnesota has Kevin Love to play the 4 and Michael Beasley to play small forward, plus they also have Wes Johnson, a natural 3 playing out of position at shooting guard. Still though, Williams is too good a player to pass on. Take the talent and figure out a trade for Beasley or Johnson later.
3. Utah Jazz (from New Jersey): Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-3, 177)
Enes Kanter is the best prospect available here, but with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Derrick Favors all locked in for several years, the Jazz may go in another direction. The difference between Kanter and Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker isn't quite the same as Derrick Williams and the rest of the field, so unlike the Timberwolves at 2, it's worth it for the Jazz, who need a point guard of the future (Devin Harris is too inconsistent and injury prone to build around) to take a slightly lower rated prospect at an area of need. The Jazz have shown in the past that they prefer bigger point guards with shooting ability, so Knight makes more sense than Walker.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Enes Kanter, C Turkey (6-11, 259)
This would be the dream scenario for the Cavs where they'd be getting the two of the best players in the draft and two cornerstones to build around at positions of need. Only if by some miracle they could pair Kyrie Irving with Derrick Williams would they be more pleased. Cleveland have a good center and power forward in Anderson Verajao and J.J. Hickson respectively, but neither is a go-to offensive player. Enes Kanter can develop into an inside/outside offensive threat that can compliment Hickson's bouncy energy and Varajao's elite defensive ability very well.
5. Toronto Raptors: Bismack Biyombo, PF/C Congo (6-9, 245)
The Raptors should be considering a couple players here, but it's clear that if Bismack Biyombo checks out as a legitimate defensive presence in the paint, Toronto has to take him. They've been a joke of a defensive team for a while, including being last in defensive efficiency the last two seasons. They've tried to find a defensive force to rebound and block shots for a couple of years, trying everyone from undersized tough guys Reggie Evans and Joey Dorsey to long armed projects Solomon Alabi and Alexis Ajinca but without much luck. Biyombo may not be able to do much else, but he should be able to provide defensive from day 1 with the upside of a Ben Wallace.
6. Washington Wizards: Jan Vesley, F Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
The Wizards dropped a few spots in the lottery but should be happy if they end up with Jan Vesely. Watching the Wizards last year, the lack of energy and hustle by players not named John Wall or Trevor Booker was disturbing. Vesely is a big time athlete who flies up and down the floor and crushes dunks. He's also got the ability to play and defend the 3 and 5, can shoot out to the NBA range and is always hustling. Vesley also has a high basketball IQ, another thing many of the Wizards lack. He'll be a good fit next to John Wall and another step in the rebuilding of the Wizards.
7. Sacramento Kings: Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 184)
The Kings have finally figured out two things: Tyreke Evans isn't a point guard and leadership and character are important. They've draft talented players with questionable intangibles in the past like Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, and Hassan Whiteside and have paid the price on occasion. Kemba Walker is the type of vocal, hardworking leader that will do wonders for this team. He's also a good fit on the court too because of the experience he got at Connecticut playing with the ball in his hands but also off the ball, which is important because we know that Evans will like to have the ball in his hands.
8. Detroit Pistons: Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-9, 227)
The Pistons would love for Bismack Biyombo to be available when they pick, but Thompson will bring a similar level of athleticism and length to Detroit's frontcourt but with considerably more offensive upside. The Pistons were at their best when they started Chris Wilcox at power forward next to Greg Monroe at center because Wilcox's athletic ability and activity helped offset some of Monroe's defensive struggles. Monroe is the future for Detroit and they'd be wise to find another young player to compliment him.
9. Charlotte Bobcats: Kawhi Leonard, SF San Diego State So. (6-7, 227)
The problem with the Charlotte Bobcats is that they have no plan, or if they do it doesn't make any sense. They draft project players like Gerald Henderson, bury them on the bench with no chance to develop. Then they trade Gerald Wallace, their one good player, for backups and low level draft picks. Charlotte needs to start acquiring young, cheap talent and avoid the terrible contracts that have killed him. Kawhi Leonard has been compared to a young Wallace and would be a nice fit in Charlotte.
10. Milwaukee Bucks: Alec Burks, SG Colorado So. (6-6, 193)
The Milwaukee Bucks had an incredible rash of injuries, with almost every core player missing time with injuries. When completely healthy, the Bucks have one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and a plethora of three point shooters but they lack a player who can create offense for themselves and others off the dribble. Brandon Jennings can create for others but struggles to finish at the rim, while Corey Maggette can score easily but only passes if all other options are extinguished. Alec Burks is a dynamic slasher who can finish at the rim and also draws a ton of fouls, yet he also spent some time running the offense at Colorado.
11. Golden State Warriors: Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-10, 230)
The Warriors don't have a coach yet, but barring an entirely dissimilar hire to previous regimes, like Larry Brown or something, it's safe to assume they'll play uptempo, pick and roll based offense again. Obviously, power forward isn't a big need for Golden State because they have David Lee, but depth is a real issue. Jonas Valanciunas is raw, but he's a killer pick and roll big and can really run. He's a nice fit for the Warriors offense and fills a need.
12. Utah Jazz: Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas So. (6-9, 228)
One of the underrated big winners from the NBA combine was Jordan Hamilton. Not only did he shoot very well but he also measured at nearly 6-9 in shoes. Given his well rounded offensive game and rebounding ability, it's not out of the question that Hamilton will be able to play shooting guard, small forward (his natural position) and stretch 4 in the NBA. Both C.J. Miles and Andrei Kirolenko are free agents this summer and it's not out of the question that neither of them will be back. Hamilton not only fills a need on the wing, but at Texas, he also excelled in a very similar system to what the Jazz run.
13. Phoenix Suns: Marcus Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 230)
Many college combo forwards has become unfairly labeled as tweeners, when the definition of both are completely opposite. A combo forward is able to play both the small and power forward positions, while a tweener is stuck between positions, not big or strong enough to play the 4, but too slow or lacking the perimeter skills to play the 3. Marcus Morris is insistent that he is a small forward, but his value lies in his ability to play both and be a matchup problem. The Suns offense is based off of exploiting those favorable matchups, pick-and-roll, and shooting. Morris has the ability to be a standout player in all three of those categories.
14. Houston Rockets: Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 230)
The word is that the Rockets are looking for a big, but with Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, and Jordan Hill they don't have a need for a power forward and there's no centers anywhere close worth taking. After Shane Battier was traded the Rockets lacked a shutdown wing defender, as Chase Budinger struggles to check wings. Chris Singleton, the best defensive player in college basketball, has been great in workouts and had a terrific combine, is really on the rise and could go as high as 6 to the Wizards.
15. Indiana Pacers: Markieff Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 241)
The Pacers are losing Josh McRoberts, Jeff Foster, and Solomon Jones to free agency this summer and are looking to get more of a defensive presence in their frontcourt than Tyler Hansbrough can provide. Markieff Morris tested poorly at the combine, registering only a 31 inch vertical but the tape shows him to be more athletic than that as well as a very good post defender who can also knock down 3 pointers on the offensive end. Morris fills a need for the Pacers and is a good value with little risk.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State Sr. (6-8, 225)
The 76ers have a offensively skilled group of big men but lack a dominant rebounder or defender in the paint. They ranked 18th in rebound rate and 23rd in blocked shots despite having a .500 record last season. If Philadelphia wants to take the next step, they to bolster their rebounding and defense. Despite being only 6-8, Kenneth Faried was the best rebounder in college basketball by far due to a 9 foot standing reach (which is better than Al Horford, Joakim Noah, David Lee, and Blake Griffin among others) and a nonstop motor. Faried also blocked almost 2 and a half shots a game and has the mobility to be a shut down defender.
17. New York Knicks: Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU Sr. (6-2, 205)
Unless he goes into workouts and consistently shuts down opposing prospects in 3-on-3s, there isn't going to be much more to learn about Jimmer Fredette. He is what he is, a great shooter and crafty scorer but a defensive liability. Fortunately for Fredette, there are teams that don't mind that, with Mike D'Antoni and the New York Knicks leading the pack. Fredette cult status and electric play ability will make him a favorite in Madison Square Garden and he'll get a lot of open looks playing with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire.
18. Washington Wizards (from Atlanta): Klay Thompson, SG Washington State Jr. (6-7, 206)
Despite averaging 16.3 points a game after being traded to the Wizards, Jordan Crawford's best fit is as a scoring combo guard off the bench. He's just to shot happy to have in your starting lineup. Klay Thompson has similar scoring ability and is one of the best shooters in the draft (a must if you play with John Wall) but also has a high basketball IQ and should lead to more off a cohesive offense for the Wizards.
19. Charlotte Bobcats (from New Orleans): Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 195)
This is probably the floor for Selby, who's blown up workouts and had an awesome combine (42 inch vertical) to answer some of the questions scouts had about him after a disastrous season at Kansas. He'll be in play for the Rockets, Knicks, and even Suns but because of how this mock falls, he's available for the Bobcats, who are desperate for a point guard and wouldn't hesitate to take the high upside Selby, who has the potential to be the best player in this draft if things break right.
20. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis): Donatas Motiejunas, F Czech Republic (7-0, 220)
It's hard to imagine that Donatas Motiejunas falls this far, but there just aren't a lot of teams looking for a skillset, though I could see the Suns, Wizards, Pacers, 76ers, or Jazz taking him. The Timberwolves have the best foreign scouts in the NBA and are looking to get more skilled in their frontcourt. Motiejunas certainly is skilled, probably the most skilled big in this draft, and is a tremendous, high upside value at this point in the draft.
21. Portland Trailblazers: JaJuan Johnson, PF Purdue Sr. (6-10, 220)
No player helped himself more at the combine than JaJuan Johnson, he measured very well and showed he's the most explosive big man in the draft. Much is made of Johnson's lack of bulk, but he's got functional strength, benching 185 pounds 15 times and there have been other lean big men to have success in the NBA. Johnson's inside-out game, length, athleticism, and production are all NBA worthy. Given their injury issues, Portland's frontcourt could use a talented backup.
22. Denver Nuggets: Marshon Brooks, SG Providence Sr. (6-5, 195)
Landry Fields, Marcus Thorton, Reggie Williams, these three NBA players who were undrafted or second round picks averaged 20 points plus per game in college. Finally, teams are starting to wise up that if you can score in college and you have an NBA game, you can score in the pros. Marshon Brooks is really rising up boards and could even sneak into the back of the lottery after averaging 24.6 ppg in the toughest conference in basketball and showing his well rounded offensive game in workouts.
23. Houston Rockets (from Orlando): Reggie Jackson, PG Boston College Jr. (6-3, 205)
Kyle Lowry had a breakout season last year, but so did Aaron Brooks two years ago before burned out in Houston and got traded at the last trade deadline. Goran Dragic is a free agent and is too unpredictable to be relied on. Reggie Jackson still has some learning to do as far as being a point guard, but with a 7-0 wingspan at 6-3 and great athleticism, Jackson can be a lockdown defender from day one with the potential to be Jrue Holiday type starting point in a year or two. A great investment and value late in the first round.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Tyler Honeycutt, G/F UCLA Jr. (6-8, 187)
The Thunder are at their best when playing unselfishly on offense and hustling on defense, they also have a need for a back up to Kevin Durant, Tyler Honeycutt isn't going to wow you with his scoring ability, but he does all the little things well, has a high basketball IQ and led the Pac-10 in blocked shots from the small forward position at over two a game. He won't need to log huge minutes behind Durant, but he'll always help the team when he's on the floor.
25. Boston Celtics: Nikola Vucevic, PF/C USC Jr. (7-0, 260)
The Celtics defensive system requires a big body in the middle who can rebound and clog the lane, Kendrick Perkins was that guy for a while, the they tried Shaq after Perkins was traded but he never got healthy enough to contribute. Nikola measured great at the combine, with a 7-4.5 wingspan and 9-4.5 reach, he's got legit center size and can be that guy in the middle for them.
26. Dallas Mavericks: Tobias Harris, F Tennessee Fr. (6-8, 223)
Tobias Harris is another player who won't ever blow you away and make highlight reel plays, but he'll make a whole team play better with unselfish play and hard work. Harris can play both the 3 and 4 while scoring inside and out and even be a little bit of a point forward. He reminds me of a smaller, rawer Lamar Odom, which is a pretty good value at 26.
27. New Jersey Nets (from L.A. Lakers): Iman Shumpert, G Georgia Tech Jr. (6-6, 222)
Iman Shumpert was the official winner of the NBA combine, measuring great and testing off the charts with a 42 inch vertical and putting up the second most bench reps with 18. On the court, Shumpert is an aggressive, slashing combo guard who struggled in Georgia Tech's awful offense (as many prospects have) while being one of the best perimeter defenders in the country.
28. Chicago Bulls (from Miami): Justin Harper, PF Richmond Jr. (6-9, 228)
It was clear in the playoffs that the Bulls need to find a way to get more scoring and space the floor with a stretch 4 and a shooting guard who can actually shoot and create his own shot. Justin Harper is a great value here as a 6-9, Rashard Lewis-type forward who shot 45% from 3 in college last season. Harper has his warts, he prefers to play on the perimeter and isn't a great rebounder but as a role player to stretch the floor, he has a lot of value.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Nikola Mirotic, SF Serbia (6-10, 226)
If it wasn't for a big buyout, Nikola Mirotic would be a lottery pick. That suits the ever patient San Antonio who don't mind waiting for years for prospects to come to the NBA (Tiago Splitter) and love taking players with the future in mind (Ryan Richards). Mirotic is a very skilled forward with a tremendous shooting stroke and better than you'd expect defensive ability.
30. Chicago Bulls: Charles Jenkins, G Hofstra Sr. (6-3, 216)
It's clear that the Bulls need to find a shooter/scorer at the 2 guard position to space the floor for Derrick Rose and help take some of the pressure off of him scoring-wise. Charles Jenkins is a lot like former Bulls guard Ben Gordon in that he's undersized but strong and can score off the bounce or from deep. Jenkins also has some point guard ability.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (from L.A. Clippers): Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-3, 191)
Despite the mess left by the LeBacle, the future is bright is Cleveland after they won the lottery and also ended up with another top 4 pick. Kyrie Irving seems to be the favorite to be the number 1 pick, though Derrick Williams will get a long looks as well. The Cavaliers have Baron Davis and Ramon Sessions both of whom were actually very good this year with 17 and 19 PERs respectively, but neither are foundation players. Irving doesn't do anything elitely, but he does everything well and most of all, he can run a team as a pure point guard.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Derrick Williams, F Arizona So. (6-9, 248)
If Kyrie Irving goes number 1, and all signs point to it, the Timberwolves will be hoping to find a trade partner to take on this pick. Indeed, they've already begun shopping it for veterans. If they do end up drafting here, Derrick Williams is most likely going to be the pick despite the fact that he doesn't fit into the starting lineup as Minnesota has Kevin Love to play the 4 and Michael Beasley to play small forward, plus they also have Wes Johnson, a natural 3 playing out of position at shooting guard. Still though, Williams is too good a player to pass on. Take the talent and figure out a trade for Beasley or Johnson later.
3. Utah Jazz (from New Jersey): Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-3, 177)
Enes Kanter is the best prospect available here, but with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Derrick Favors all locked in for several years, the Jazz may go in another direction. The difference between Kanter and Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker isn't quite the same as Derrick Williams and the rest of the field, so unlike the Timberwolves at 2, it's worth it for the Jazz, who need a point guard of the future (Devin Harris is too inconsistent and injury prone to build around) to take a slightly lower rated prospect at an area of need. The Jazz have shown in the past that they prefer bigger point guards with shooting ability, so Knight makes more sense than Walker.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Enes Kanter, C Turkey (6-11, 259)
This would be the dream scenario for the Cavs where they'd be getting the two of the best players in the draft and two cornerstones to build around at positions of need. Only if by some miracle they could pair Kyrie Irving with Derrick Williams would they be more pleased. Cleveland have a good center and power forward in Anderson Verajao and J.J. Hickson respectively, but neither is a go-to offensive player. Enes Kanter can develop into an inside/outside offensive threat that can compliment Hickson's bouncy energy and Varajao's elite defensive ability very well.
5. Toronto Raptors: Bismack Biyombo, PF/C Congo (6-9, 245)
The Raptors should be considering a couple players here, but it's clear that if Bismack Biyombo checks out as a legitimate defensive presence in the paint, Toronto has to take him. They've been a joke of a defensive team for a while, including being last in defensive efficiency the last two seasons. They've tried to find a defensive force to rebound and block shots for a couple of years, trying everyone from undersized tough guys Reggie Evans and Joey Dorsey to long armed projects Solomon Alabi and Alexis Ajinca but without much luck. Biyombo may not be able to do much else, but he should be able to provide defensive from day 1 with the upside of a Ben Wallace.
6. Washington Wizards: Jan Vesley, F Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
The Wizards dropped a few spots in the lottery but should be happy if they end up with Jan Vesely. Watching the Wizards last year, the lack of energy and hustle by players not named John Wall or Trevor Booker was disturbing. Vesely is a big time athlete who flies up and down the floor and crushes dunks. He's also got the ability to play and defend the 3 and 5, can shoot out to the NBA range and is always hustling. Vesley also has a high basketball IQ, another thing many of the Wizards lack. He'll be a good fit next to John Wall and another step in the rebuilding of the Wizards.
7. Sacramento Kings: Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 184)
The Kings have finally figured out two things: Tyreke Evans isn't a point guard and leadership and character are important. They've draft talented players with questionable intangibles in the past like Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, and Hassan Whiteside and have paid the price on occasion. Kemba Walker is the type of vocal, hardworking leader that will do wonders for this team. He's also a good fit on the court too because of the experience he got at Connecticut playing with the ball in his hands but also off the ball, which is important because we know that Evans will like to have the ball in his hands.
8. Detroit Pistons: Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-9, 227)
The Pistons would love for Bismack Biyombo to be available when they pick, but Thompson will bring a similar level of athleticism and length to Detroit's frontcourt but with considerably more offensive upside. The Pistons were at their best when they started Chris Wilcox at power forward next to Greg Monroe at center because Wilcox's athletic ability and activity helped offset some of Monroe's defensive struggles. Monroe is the future for Detroit and they'd be wise to find another young player to compliment him.
9. Charlotte Bobcats: Kawhi Leonard, SF San Diego State So. (6-7, 227)
The problem with the Charlotte Bobcats is that they have no plan, or if they do it doesn't make any sense. They draft project players like Gerald Henderson, bury them on the bench with no chance to develop. Then they trade Gerald Wallace, their one good player, for backups and low level draft picks. Charlotte needs to start acquiring young, cheap talent and avoid the terrible contracts that have killed him. Kawhi Leonard has been compared to a young Wallace and would be a nice fit in Charlotte.
10. Milwaukee Bucks: Alec Burks, SG Colorado So. (6-6, 193)
The Milwaukee Bucks had an incredible rash of injuries, with almost every core player missing time with injuries. When completely healthy, the Bucks have one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and a plethora of three point shooters but they lack a player who can create offense for themselves and others off the dribble. Brandon Jennings can create for others but struggles to finish at the rim, while Corey Maggette can score easily but only passes if all other options are extinguished. Alec Burks is a dynamic slasher who can finish at the rim and also draws a ton of fouls, yet he also spent some time running the offense at Colorado.
11. Golden State Warriors: Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-10, 230)
The Warriors don't have a coach yet, but barring an entirely dissimilar hire to previous regimes, like Larry Brown or something, it's safe to assume they'll play uptempo, pick and roll based offense again. Obviously, power forward isn't a big need for Golden State because they have David Lee, but depth is a real issue. Jonas Valanciunas is raw, but he's a killer pick and roll big and can really run. He's a nice fit for the Warriors offense and fills a need.
12. Utah Jazz: Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas So. (6-9, 228)
One of the underrated big winners from the NBA combine was Jordan Hamilton. Not only did he shoot very well but he also measured at nearly 6-9 in shoes. Given his well rounded offensive game and rebounding ability, it's not out of the question that Hamilton will be able to play shooting guard, small forward (his natural position) and stretch 4 in the NBA. Both C.J. Miles and Andrei Kirolenko are free agents this summer and it's not out of the question that neither of them will be back. Hamilton not only fills a need on the wing, but at Texas, he also excelled in a very similar system to what the Jazz run.
13. Phoenix Suns: Marcus Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 230)
Many college combo forwards has become unfairly labeled as tweeners, when the definition of both are completely opposite. A combo forward is able to play both the small and power forward positions, while a tweener is stuck between positions, not big or strong enough to play the 4, but too slow or lacking the perimeter skills to play the 3. Marcus Morris is insistent that he is a small forward, but his value lies in his ability to play both and be a matchup problem. The Suns offense is based off of exploiting those favorable matchups, pick-and-roll, and shooting. Morris has the ability to be a standout player in all three of those categories.
14. Houston Rockets: Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 230)
The word is that the Rockets are looking for a big, but with Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, and Jordan Hill they don't have a need for a power forward and there's no centers anywhere close worth taking. After Shane Battier was traded the Rockets lacked a shutdown wing defender, as Chase Budinger struggles to check wings. Chris Singleton, the best defensive player in college basketball, has been great in workouts and had a terrific combine, is really on the rise and could go as high as 6 to the Wizards.
15. Indiana Pacers: Markieff Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 241)
The Pacers are losing Josh McRoberts, Jeff Foster, and Solomon Jones to free agency this summer and are looking to get more of a defensive presence in their frontcourt than Tyler Hansbrough can provide. Markieff Morris tested poorly at the combine, registering only a 31 inch vertical but the tape shows him to be more athletic than that as well as a very good post defender who can also knock down 3 pointers on the offensive end. Morris fills a need for the Pacers and is a good value with little risk.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State Sr. (6-8, 225)
The 76ers have a offensively skilled group of big men but lack a dominant rebounder or defender in the paint. They ranked 18th in rebound rate and 23rd in blocked shots despite having a .500 record last season. If Philadelphia wants to take the next step, they to bolster their rebounding and defense. Despite being only 6-8, Kenneth Faried was the best rebounder in college basketball by far due to a 9 foot standing reach (which is better than Al Horford, Joakim Noah, David Lee, and Blake Griffin among others) and a nonstop motor. Faried also blocked almost 2 and a half shots a game and has the mobility to be a shut down defender.
17. New York Knicks: Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU Sr. (6-2, 205)
Unless he goes into workouts and consistently shuts down opposing prospects in 3-on-3s, there isn't going to be much more to learn about Jimmer Fredette. He is what he is, a great shooter and crafty scorer but a defensive liability. Fortunately for Fredette, there are teams that don't mind that, with Mike D'Antoni and the New York Knicks leading the pack. Fredette cult status and electric play ability will make him a favorite in Madison Square Garden and he'll get a lot of open looks playing with Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire.
18. Washington Wizards (from Atlanta): Klay Thompson, SG Washington State Jr. (6-7, 206)
Despite averaging 16.3 points a game after being traded to the Wizards, Jordan Crawford's best fit is as a scoring combo guard off the bench. He's just to shot happy to have in your starting lineup. Klay Thompson has similar scoring ability and is one of the best shooters in the draft (a must if you play with John Wall) but also has a high basketball IQ and should lead to more off a cohesive offense for the Wizards.
19. Charlotte Bobcats (from New Orleans): Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 195)
This is probably the floor for Selby, who's blown up workouts and had an awesome combine (42 inch vertical) to answer some of the questions scouts had about him after a disastrous season at Kansas. He'll be in play for the Rockets, Knicks, and even Suns but because of how this mock falls, he's available for the Bobcats, who are desperate for a point guard and wouldn't hesitate to take the high upside Selby, who has the potential to be the best player in this draft if things break right.
20. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis): Donatas Motiejunas, F Czech Republic (7-0, 220)
It's hard to imagine that Donatas Motiejunas falls this far, but there just aren't a lot of teams looking for a skillset, though I could see the Suns, Wizards, Pacers, 76ers, or Jazz taking him. The Timberwolves have the best foreign scouts in the NBA and are looking to get more skilled in their frontcourt. Motiejunas certainly is skilled, probably the most skilled big in this draft, and is a tremendous, high upside value at this point in the draft.
21. Portland Trailblazers: JaJuan Johnson, PF Purdue Sr. (6-10, 220)
No player helped himself more at the combine than JaJuan Johnson, he measured very well and showed he's the most explosive big man in the draft. Much is made of Johnson's lack of bulk, but he's got functional strength, benching 185 pounds 15 times and there have been other lean big men to have success in the NBA. Johnson's inside-out game, length, athleticism, and production are all NBA worthy. Given their injury issues, Portland's frontcourt could use a talented backup.
22. Denver Nuggets: Marshon Brooks, SG Providence Sr. (6-5, 195)
Landry Fields, Marcus Thorton, Reggie Williams, these three NBA players who were undrafted or second round picks averaged 20 points plus per game in college. Finally, teams are starting to wise up that if you can score in college and you have an NBA game, you can score in the pros. Marshon Brooks is really rising up boards and could even sneak into the back of the lottery after averaging 24.6 ppg in the toughest conference in basketball and showing his well rounded offensive game in workouts.
23. Houston Rockets (from Orlando): Reggie Jackson, PG Boston College Jr. (6-3, 205)
Kyle Lowry had a breakout season last year, but so did Aaron Brooks two years ago before burned out in Houston and got traded at the last trade deadline. Goran Dragic is a free agent and is too unpredictable to be relied on. Reggie Jackson still has some learning to do as far as being a point guard, but with a 7-0 wingspan at 6-3 and great athleticism, Jackson can be a lockdown defender from day one with the potential to be Jrue Holiday type starting point in a year or two. A great investment and value late in the first round.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Tyler Honeycutt, G/F UCLA Jr. (6-8, 187)
The Thunder are at their best when playing unselfishly on offense and hustling on defense, they also have a need for a back up to Kevin Durant, Tyler Honeycutt isn't going to wow you with his scoring ability, but he does all the little things well, has a high basketball IQ and led the Pac-10 in blocked shots from the small forward position at over two a game. He won't need to log huge minutes behind Durant, but he'll always help the team when he's on the floor.
25. Boston Celtics: Nikola Vucevic, PF/C USC Jr. (7-0, 260)
The Celtics defensive system requires a big body in the middle who can rebound and clog the lane, Kendrick Perkins was that guy for a while, the they tried Shaq after Perkins was traded but he never got healthy enough to contribute. Nikola measured great at the combine, with a 7-4.5 wingspan and 9-4.5 reach, he's got legit center size and can be that guy in the middle for them.
26. Dallas Mavericks: Tobias Harris, F Tennessee Fr. (6-8, 223)
Tobias Harris is another player who won't ever blow you away and make highlight reel plays, but he'll make a whole team play better with unselfish play and hard work. Harris can play both the 3 and 4 while scoring inside and out and even be a little bit of a point forward. He reminds me of a smaller, rawer Lamar Odom, which is a pretty good value at 26.
27. New Jersey Nets (from L.A. Lakers): Iman Shumpert, G Georgia Tech Jr. (6-6, 222)
Iman Shumpert was the official winner of the NBA combine, measuring great and testing off the charts with a 42 inch vertical and putting up the second most bench reps with 18. On the court, Shumpert is an aggressive, slashing combo guard who struggled in Georgia Tech's awful offense (as many prospects have) while being one of the best perimeter defenders in the country.
28. Chicago Bulls (from Miami): Justin Harper, PF Richmond Jr. (6-9, 228)
It was clear in the playoffs that the Bulls need to find a way to get more scoring and space the floor with a stretch 4 and a shooting guard who can actually shoot and create his own shot. Justin Harper is a great value here as a 6-9, Rashard Lewis-type forward who shot 45% from 3 in college last season. Harper has his warts, he prefers to play on the perimeter and isn't a great rebounder but as a role player to stretch the floor, he has a lot of value.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Nikola Mirotic, SF Serbia (6-10, 226)
If it wasn't for a big buyout, Nikola Mirotic would be a lottery pick. That suits the ever patient San Antonio who don't mind waiting for years for prospects to come to the NBA (Tiago Splitter) and love taking players with the future in mind (Ryan Richards). Mirotic is a very skilled forward with a tremendous shooting stroke and better than you'd expect defensive ability.
30. Chicago Bulls: Charles Jenkins, G Hofstra Sr. (6-3, 216)
It's clear that the Bulls need to find a shooter/scorer at the 2 guard position to space the floor for Derrick Rose and help take some of the pressure off of him scoring-wise. Charles Jenkins is a lot like former Bulls guard Ben Gordon in that he's undersized but strong and can score off the bounce or from deep. Jenkins also has some point guard ability.
Sunday, May 8, 2011
It's true that the 2011 draft is short on elite, potential star prospects, however there's considerable depth in the late first round and even in the second. The superstars take center stage in the playoffs, but it's often the role players that are crucial to winning in the post-season. Taj Gibson has come off the bench and picked up the slack of ailing Carlos Boozer, J.J. Barea used his quickness to dice up the Lakers defense, Tony Allen has taken the task of shutting down the opponents best perimeter player, and James Jones has provided the floor spacing to give the LeBron and Wade driving lanes. None of these players were picked before the 25th pick in the first round. Other such valuable role players can be found late in this draft as well.
Taj Gibson, Bulls (2009, 1st round, 26th overall)
Carlos Boozer has struggled to get going in these playoffs, due to a foot injury and some a lack of confidence. Coming off the bench, Taj Gibson has come off the bench when Boozer has struggled and provided energy to help lift the Bulls second unit. When Gibson comes in the game, he usually blocks a shot or two, tries to dunk a offensive rebound, hits a mid-range jumper, and drops in a shot hook shot. Shot blocking, athleticism, a consistent jumpshot, and some simple post moves are all features of Purdue Senior JaJuan Johnson's game. Johnson is a long, athletic forward with 7-2 wingspan who's blocked 263 shots in his career at Purdue. He also has range out to the college 3 point line and should be able to knock down 18-20 foot jumpers consistently. The concern with Johnson is that while he's a legit 6-10, he only weighs 220-225 pounds, but when Gibson came out of USC he was only 214 pounds. Johnson should go off the board sometime in the early second round and should be player minutes as a backup power forward right away.
J.J. Barea, Mavericks (2001, undrafted)
One of the keys to the Mavericks shocking sweep of the Lakers was J.J. Berea's ability to penetrate and run pick-and-roll. Barea is generously listed at six feet tall (he's probably more like 5-10) but his quickness and tight handle allow him to slip past players to the rim. One of the problems Barea has is finishing at the rim because he's not explosive and lacks great bulk. Washington's Isaiah Thomas is just as short as Barea at 5-9 and has the same quickness and ball handling skills, but has a bigger frame and is an explosive athlete. Barea isn't a great three point shooter, so he usually has to play with the ball in his hands. While Thomas has the floor vision to play the point, he also has the outside shot to play off the ball if need be. As a rich man Barea with great leadership skills and work ethic, Thomas is a lock for the second round with a chance at the late first.
Tony Allen, Grizzles (2004, 1st round, 25th overall)
Despite a wildly inconsistent mixed-bag of production on offense, Tony Allen brings First Team All-Defense every night on the floor. Great athletic ability combined with instincts and tenacity allow Allen to shut down guards and wings game in and game out despite being undersized at 6-4. Allen has decent ball handling skills and can play the point if absolutely necessary but is a bad deep shooter and can be turnover prone. UCLA's Malcolm Lee played point guard for his first two years at UCLA with mixed results but was clearly better suited to play the 2 despite an inconsistent jumpshot. Lee can slash, finish at the rim and find teammates but like Allen, his bread and butter is his defense. Lee is the best perimeter defender in this draft and should find a role as a defensive stopper in the NBA with the upside of a 2 guard with point guard skills. Lee should be drafted late-first/early second.
James Jones, Heat (2003, 2nd round, 50th overall)
Along with Joel Anthony, James Jones is the most important non-Big 3 player on the Heat (you might argue they're more important than Bosh Spice) because of the roles they play. Jones' 3 point shooting ability (43% this season) has provided the spacing to open driving lanes to the basket for LeBron and Wade. Jones isn't the defender he used to be, but he's still a passable defender. Ohio State's David Lighty also shot a 43% from 3 this season and has improved every season from deep. He's also a high effort defender with a high basketball IQ and should be able to have that role player mindset from day 1. Lighty has a chance to get drafted in the second round but could easily go undrafted, I still expect him to make an NBA roster and even get some minutes as a floor spacing backup 2 guard.
Taj Gibson, Bulls (2009, 1st round, 26th overall)
Carlos Boozer has struggled to get going in these playoffs, due to a foot injury and some a lack of confidence. Coming off the bench, Taj Gibson has come off the bench when Boozer has struggled and provided energy to help lift the Bulls second unit. When Gibson comes in the game, he usually blocks a shot or two, tries to dunk a offensive rebound, hits a mid-range jumper, and drops in a shot hook shot. Shot blocking, athleticism, a consistent jumpshot, and some simple post moves are all features of Purdue Senior JaJuan Johnson's game. Johnson is a long, athletic forward with 7-2 wingspan who's blocked 263 shots in his career at Purdue. He also has range out to the college 3 point line and should be able to knock down 18-20 foot jumpers consistently. The concern with Johnson is that while he's a legit 6-10, he only weighs 220-225 pounds, but when Gibson came out of USC he was only 214 pounds. Johnson should go off the board sometime in the early second round and should be player minutes as a backup power forward right away.
J.J. Barea, Mavericks (2001, undrafted)
One of the keys to the Mavericks shocking sweep of the Lakers was J.J. Berea's ability to penetrate and run pick-and-roll. Barea is generously listed at six feet tall (he's probably more like 5-10) but his quickness and tight handle allow him to slip past players to the rim. One of the problems Barea has is finishing at the rim because he's not explosive and lacks great bulk. Washington's Isaiah Thomas is just as short as Barea at 5-9 and has the same quickness and ball handling skills, but has a bigger frame and is an explosive athlete. Barea isn't a great three point shooter, so he usually has to play with the ball in his hands. While Thomas has the floor vision to play the point, he also has the outside shot to play off the ball if need be. As a rich man Barea with great leadership skills and work ethic, Thomas is a lock for the second round with a chance at the late first.
Tony Allen, Grizzles (2004, 1st round, 25th overall)
Despite a wildly inconsistent mixed-bag of production on offense, Tony Allen brings First Team All-Defense every night on the floor. Great athletic ability combined with instincts and tenacity allow Allen to shut down guards and wings game in and game out despite being undersized at 6-4. Allen has decent ball handling skills and can play the point if absolutely necessary but is a bad deep shooter and can be turnover prone. UCLA's Malcolm Lee played point guard for his first two years at UCLA with mixed results but was clearly better suited to play the 2 despite an inconsistent jumpshot. Lee can slash, finish at the rim and find teammates but like Allen, his bread and butter is his defense. Lee is the best perimeter defender in this draft and should find a role as a defensive stopper in the NBA with the upside of a 2 guard with point guard skills. Lee should be drafted late-first/early second.
James Jones, Heat (2003, 2nd round, 50th overall)
Along with Joel Anthony, James Jones is the most important non-Big 3 player on the Heat (you might argue they're more important than Bosh Spice) because of the roles they play. Jones' 3 point shooting ability (43% this season) has provided the spacing to open driving lanes to the basket for LeBron and Wade. Jones isn't the defender he used to be, but he's still a passable defender. Ohio State's David Lighty also shot a 43% from 3 this season and has improved every season from deep. He's also a high effort defender with a high basketball IQ and should be able to have that role player mindset from day 1. Lighty has a chance to get drafted in the second round but could easily go undrafted, I still expect him to make an NBA roster and even get some minutes as a floor spacing backup 2 guard.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Early 2012 Mock Lottery
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Anthony Davis, PF Kentucky Fr. (6-10, 205)
Even with a likely top 2 pick in the 2011 draft, the Cavaliers still have one of the worst rosters in the league and are the favorite to have the worst record in the league next season. Anthony Davis has superstar potential, something a small market team just can't pass up.
2. Toronto Raptors: Michael Gilchrist, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-7, 220)
I'll be taking a look at Michael Gilchrist vs. Harrison Barnes later this week, but for a team like Toronto, who are historically bad on defense, Gilchrist lockdown defensive ability and rebound should appeal more than Barnes' shooting ability.
3. Washington Wizards: Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina So. (6-7, 210)
The Wizards will be looking for players who can shoot and finish in transition to put around John Wall. Harrison Barnes can do all those things and is also the kind of high character leader the Wizards want.
4. Los Angeles Clippers (from Minnesota Timberwolves): Austin Rivers, SG Duke Fr. (6-4, 200)
The Clippers have this pick from the Marco Jaric trade disaster back in 2005. Despite have a talented young group of starters, the Clippers have an awful bench. Austin River can take the Randy Foye's spot off the bench.
5. Sacramento Kings: Perry Jones, PF Baylor So. (6-11, 235)
Perry Jones is more comfortable playing on the perimeter, which fits well with DeMarcus Cousins low-block game. Jones can also play minutes at the 3, a point of weakness for the Kings.
6. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger, PF Ohio State So. (6-9, 260)
Jared Sullinger's lack of upside will likely cost him, but he's too good of a player to pass up, even if his fit next to Greg Monroe isn't perfect. Besides Monroe, the Piston's roster has no 4s or 5s on the roster worth keeping.
7. New Jersey Nets: Quincy Miller, PF Baylor Fr. (6-9, 210)
Quincy Miller is the perfect kind of player to put around Brook Lopez and Deron Williams because he's such a versatile scorer who can take pressure off them with his shot making ability, but can also hit open shots that Williams and Lopez can create off double teams.
8.Charlotte Bobcats: Bradley Beal, SG Florida Fr. (6-4, 200)
The Bobcats are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the NBA and just struggle in general to score. Bradley Beal is a guy who can make offense look easy with his awesome 3 point stroke and ability to create offense in the half court.
9. Los Angeles Clippers: James McAdoo, PF North Carolina Fr. (6-8, 225)
The Clippers need to continue to address their bench issues. James McAdoo is skilled all around player who can do everything you want from a 3rd big man. He and Blake Griffin could easily make up the Clippers crunch time lineup as well.
10. Phoenix Suns: Marquis Teague, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-1, 180)
Steve Nash can't play forever and if the Suns think Aaron Brooks can be a starting point guard on a good team, they'll be disappointed. Marquis Teague's has very good point guard sklls but is also an explosive end-to-end player.
11. Utah Jazz (from Golden State Warriors): Patric Young, PF/C Florida So. (6-9, 235)
The Jazz got this pick from New Jersey in the Deron Williams trade. Despite having Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Derrick Favors, the Jazz could still use another strong defensive presence and rebounder in the paint. You can really never have too many.
12. Indiana Pacers: John Henson, PF North Carolina Jr. (6-10, 210)
The Pacers have had success drafting high motor, pesky players for their frontcourt. John Henson has his flaws, but he can be a game changer with his length.
13. Utah Jazz: LeBryan Nash, SF Oklahoma State Fr. (6-7, 230)
Another talented lottery pick for the Jazz. LeBryan Nash has elite athleticism and an NBA ready body, but he doesn't always play to his potential. If he did, he'd be the top pick in the draft. Plus, he's got a create-a-player name.
14. New Orleans Hornets: Myck Kabongo. PG Texas Fr. (6-1, 170)
It's crazy to think, but Chris Paul could easily be on his way out by the 2012 draft. If so, the Hornets will be looking for a replacement. Myck Kabongo isn't Chris Paul, but he's a pure point guard with a great athleticism and intangibles.
Even with a likely top 2 pick in the 2011 draft, the Cavaliers still have one of the worst rosters in the league and are the favorite to have the worst record in the league next season. Anthony Davis has superstar potential, something a small market team just can't pass up.
2. Toronto Raptors: Michael Gilchrist, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-7, 220)
I'll be taking a look at Michael Gilchrist vs. Harrison Barnes later this week, but for a team like Toronto, who are historically bad on defense, Gilchrist lockdown defensive ability and rebound should appeal more than Barnes' shooting ability.
3. Washington Wizards: Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina So. (6-7, 210)
The Wizards will be looking for players who can shoot and finish in transition to put around John Wall. Harrison Barnes can do all those things and is also the kind of high character leader the Wizards want.
4. Los Angeles Clippers (from Minnesota Timberwolves): Austin Rivers, SG Duke Fr. (6-4, 200)
The Clippers have this pick from the Marco Jaric trade disaster back in 2005. Despite have a talented young group of starters, the Clippers have an awful bench. Austin River can take the Randy Foye's spot off the bench.
5. Sacramento Kings: Perry Jones, PF Baylor So. (6-11, 235)
Perry Jones is more comfortable playing on the perimeter, which fits well with DeMarcus Cousins low-block game. Jones can also play minutes at the 3, a point of weakness for the Kings.
6. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger, PF Ohio State So. (6-9, 260)
Jared Sullinger's lack of upside will likely cost him, but he's too good of a player to pass up, even if his fit next to Greg Monroe isn't perfect. Besides Monroe, the Piston's roster has no 4s or 5s on the roster worth keeping.
7. New Jersey Nets: Quincy Miller, PF Baylor Fr. (6-9, 210)
Quincy Miller is the perfect kind of player to put around Brook Lopez and Deron Williams because he's such a versatile scorer who can take pressure off them with his shot making ability, but can also hit open shots that Williams and Lopez can create off double teams.
8.Charlotte Bobcats: Bradley Beal, SG Florida Fr. (6-4, 200)
The Bobcats are one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the NBA and just struggle in general to score. Bradley Beal is a guy who can make offense look easy with his awesome 3 point stroke and ability to create offense in the half court.
9. Los Angeles Clippers: James McAdoo, PF North Carolina Fr. (6-8, 225)
The Clippers need to continue to address their bench issues. James McAdoo is skilled all around player who can do everything you want from a 3rd big man. He and Blake Griffin could easily make up the Clippers crunch time lineup as well.
10. Phoenix Suns: Marquis Teague, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-1, 180)
Steve Nash can't play forever and if the Suns think Aaron Brooks can be a starting point guard on a good team, they'll be disappointed. Marquis Teague's has very good point guard sklls but is also an explosive end-to-end player.
11. Utah Jazz (from Golden State Warriors): Patric Young, PF/C Florida So. (6-9, 235)
The Jazz got this pick from New Jersey in the Deron Williams trade. Despite having Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Derrick Favors, the Jazz could still use another strong defensive presence and rebounder in the paint. You can really never have too many.
12. Indiana Pacers: John Henson, PF North Carolina Jr. (6-10, 210)
The Pacers have had success drafting high motor, pesky players for their frontcourt. John Henson has his flaws, but he can be a game changer with his length.
13. Utah Jazz: LeBryan Nash, SF Oklahoma State Fr. (6-7, 230)
Another talented lottery pick for the Jazz. LeBryan Nash has elite athleticism and an NBA ready body, but he doesn't always play to his potential. If he did, he'd be the top pick in the draft. Plus, he's got a create-a-player name.
14. New Orleans Hornets: Myck Kabongo. PG Texas Fr. (6-1, 170)
It's crazy to think, but Chris Paul could easily be on his way out by the 2012 draft. If so, the Hornets will be looking for a replacement. Myck Kabongo isn't Chris Paul, but he's a pure point guard with a great athleticism and intangibles.
Monday, April 25, 2011
2012 Draft Debate: Perry Jones vs. Anthony Davis
Perry Jones, Baylor So. vs. Anthony Davis, Kentucky Fr.
The 2012 draft is going to be the year of the skilled big man. Both Perry Jones of Baylor and Anthony Davis combine tremendous size with the ability of a 2 guard. Obviously Jones, a Sophomore, has an edge because he has a year of NCAA experience under his belt, but Freshman Davis has the advantage of a clean slate with which to work. James McAdoo and Quincy Miller are two other skilled big men likely to enter the 2012 draft, but Jones and Davis are the best of the best.
Size
Jones: Perry Jones looks every bit of 6-11, 235 pounds and has done a good job bulking up since coming to Baylor. He also has the frame to add 10-15 more pounds without affecting his game. Add to that a 7-2.5 wingspan and you've got a prototype power forwards size.
Davis: Anthony Davis is listed at 6-10, but may be closer to 6-9. However, after recently growing 7-inches, he may still be getting taller. His lack of weight (208 pounds) is worrisome, but he's got a great frame and should be able to add a lot more muscle, it's simply a matter of want to. If he can get up to 220 by the draft combine, it'll be a good sign that he's willing to put in the work to get to a weight that can compete on the NBA level. Davis has also be measure with a ridicules 7-4 wingspan, which helps him play bigger than his height.
Edge: Jones at this point, but if Davis maxes out like he can, it'll be him.
Athleticism
Jones: Jones is special athlete. He explodes off the floor off of one foot or two and has a great second bounce. He also moves like a guard with no stiffness to his game at all. Overall, Jones is a very fluid player with as much body control as any player his size in the NBA. He's also got great speed and flies up and down the court.
Davis: Davis is equally as fluid an athlete, playing with none of the awkwardness you'd expect from a player who grew 7 inches in a summer to go from a 2 guard to a big man. He, too, runs the floor very well and is hard to handle in that respect because he'll almost always beat his man down the floor. Davis is an explosive leaper, but isn't in quite the same elite class as Jones. Add to that he may lose some of his explosiveness as he gains weight, you have to think he'll end up being a very good athlete, but not elite.
Edge: Jones
Inside Game
Jones: With his size and bounce, Jones is able to get his shot of over most players. He displays nice touch around the basket and has a jump hook, a turnaround jumpshot, and can drop step. The best part of his inside game is that if he get close enough to dunk, he'll finish strong. His footwork in the post needs work, he doesn't enter the post with a plan, and he doesn't always know what to do when he's double teamed, but the tools are there, he just needs a lot of polish.
Davis: Davis is remarkably good in the post for a player who just started playing there a year ago. With his great length and good, high release points on his shots, he's able to play over the top of just about everyone. He's also got terrific hands and catches anything thrown near him. Obviously his lack of lower body strength at this point prevents him from gaining good post position, but he makes up for this with quickness and footwork. Like all young players, he's far from a finished product but the skills and the demeanor are there.
Edge: Davis
Outside Game
Jones: Despite having the size of a power forward, Jones is clearly more comfortable on the perimeter. So much so that his best fit in the NBA is probably at small forward. His jumpshot has range out to the 3 point line, though he's very inconsistent from there. Mid-range, however, Jones is much better. Where he really stands out is his ball handling and passing, he's got point forward potential and is great on the break. He'll really excel on an fast-paced team. Part of the difficulty in evaluating Jones is that the guard play on his team is so poor that he hardly ever got the ball in a place where he was comfortable, but when he did he was effective.
Davis: Despite being a guard most of his life, Davis is much more effective in the paint than on the perimeter. His jumpshot is good, but nothing special for a big man. He has the ability to take his man of the dribble, but is more comfortable giving the ball to a guard on the break instead of taking it himself, which is usually a smart thing to do.
Edge: Jones
Defense
Jones: With his length and leaping ability, Jones is an very good shot blocker, but not elite. Where he really excels is guarding his man. He's got the strength to guard 4's and 5's, but also the lateral quickness to guard wings and guards, making him one of the most versatile defender in basketball. He should also be very good guarding pick and rolls.
Davis: Having a 7-4 wingspan is one thing, but Davis also displays the timing and instincts of an elite shot blocker. He could easily block 2.5+ shots a game in college and near that many in the pros, he's just an natural shot blocker with tools to do it. Though not as good as Jones, Davis is still very good when switching on quicker players, however it's in the post that worries come. His length causes problems for post players, but the lack of bulk and lower body strength could cause him to be push around on defense by bigger players.
Edge: Push
Rebounding
Jones: Jones has all the tools of a great rebounder, but Baylor's system hides it occasionally. Despite that, he lacks the elite rebounding instincts you see in some of the best rebounders. He's much better on the offensive glass, though, so that's a good sign. I'd say if he ends up at power forward, he'll be an average rebounder, whereas he'll be above average at the 3.
Davis: Look, the guy averaged 22 rebounds a game his Senior year of high school, so you know he's got that ability. Projecting him to college and the NBA, you see a guy who's got the reach, but also has great instincts tracking the ball off the rim and will rebound out of his area consistently. As with his post play, Davis' lack of strength may hinder him a bit as a rebounder, but once he's bulks up even 20 pounds that should be an issue.
Edge: Davis
Motor
Jones: Though he's received the rep as a guy with a bad motor, that's just not the case. Jones almost always plays hard, but he just defers to teammates more than he should. With his talent, he should be a dominant player, but he is too unselfish at times.
Davis: Davis has a great motor, trying to block every shot, pursuing rebounds outside his area, and consistently running the floor.
Edge: Davis
Bottom Line
Jones: Perry Jones is perhaps the most gifted player in the country, but terrible guard play and oversized expectations derailed his first season. He was actually very good when it came to things he could control, but he didn't have the breakout season that some people were unfairly expecting. If he can improve all around his Sophomore year, especially from 3 point range, he'll have a shot at the top pick in the 2012 draft and will certainly be a top 5 pick whether it's at the 3 or the 4.
Davis: From a relative unknown as a Junior to the consensus number one recruit this year, Davis has had one of the most interesting paths to stardom in recent history. Scouts have also pegged him as the favorite to be the top pick in the 2012 draft. It'll be hard for him to blow it in his first season, the only thing he really has to do is put on some weight because all the other tools are there to average 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.5+ blocks on a loaded Kentucky team.
Overall edge: Davis, but not by much. Jones has a higher ceiling, but Davis has a higher floor as well as a pretty high ceiling himself.
Perry Jones Highlights
Anthony Davis Highlights
Up next: Harrison Barnes vs. Michael Gilchrist
The 2012 draft is going to be the year of the skilled big man. Both Perry Jones of Baylor and Anthony Davis combine tremendous size with the ability of a 2 guard. Obviously Jones, a Sophomore, has an edge because he has a year of NCAA experience under his belt, but Freshman Davis has the advantage of a clean slate with which to work. James McAdoo and Quincy Miller are two other skilled big men likely to enter the 2012 draft, but Jones and Davis are the best of the best.
Size
Jones: Perry Jones looks every bit of 6-11, 235 pounds and has done a good job bulking up since coming to Baylor. He also has the frame to add 10-15 more pounds without affecting his game. Add to that a 7-2.5 wingspan and you've got a prototype power forwards size.
Davis: Anthony Davis is listed at 6-10, but may be closer to 6-9. However, after recently growing 7-inches, he may still be getting taller. His lack of weight (208 pounds) is worrisome, but he's got a great frame and should be able to add a lot more muscle, it's simply a matter of want to. If he can get up to 220 by the draft combine, it'll be a good sign that he's willing to put in the work to get to a weight that can compete on the NBA level. Davis has also be measure with a ridicules 7-4 wingspan, which helps him play bigger than his height.
Edge: Jones at this point, but if Davis maxes out like he can, it'll be him.
Athleticism
Jones: Jones is special athlete. He explodes off the floor off of one foot or two and has a great second bounce. He also moves like a guard with no stiffness to his game at all. Overall, Jones is a very fluid player with as much body control as any player his size in the NBA. He's also got great speed and flies up and down the court.
Davis: Davis is equally as fluid an athlete, playing with none of the awkwardness you'd expect from a player who grew 7 inches in a summer to go from a 2 guard to a big man. He, too, runs the floor very well and is hard to handle in that respect because he'll almost always beat his man down the floor. Davis is an explosive leaper, but isn't in quite the same elite class as Jones. Add to that he may lose some of his explosiveness as he gains weight, you have to think he'll end up being a very good athlete, but not elite.
Edge: Jones
Inside Game
Jones: With his size and bounce, Jones is able to get his shot of over most players. He displays nice touch around the basket and has a jump hook, a turnaround jumpshot, and can drop step. The best part of his inside game is that if he get close enough to dunk, he'll finish strong. His footwork in the post needs work, he doesn't enter the post with a plan, and he doesn't always know what to do when he's double teamed, but the tools are there, he just needs a lot of polish.
Davis: Davis is remarkably good in the post for a player who just started playing there a year ago. With his great length and good, high release points on his shots, he's able to play over the top of just about everyone. He's also got terrific hands and catches anything thrown near him. Obviously his lack of lower body strength at this point prevents him from gaining good post position, but he makes up for this with quickness and footwork. Like all young players, he's far from a finished product but the skills and the demeanor are there.
Edge: Davis
Outside Game
Jones: Despite having the size of a power forward, Jones is clearly more comfortable on the perimeter. So much so that his best fit in the NBA is probably at small forward. His jumpshot has range out to the 3 point line, though he's very inconsistent from there. Mid-range, however, Jones is much better. Where he really stands out is his ball handling and passing, he's got point forward potential and is great on the break. He'll really excel on an fast-paced team. Part of the difficulty in evaluating Jones is that the guard play on his team is so poor that he hardly ever got the ball in a place where he was comfortable, but when he did he was effective.
Davis: Despite being a guard most of his life, Davis is much more effective in the paint than on the perimeter. His jumpshot is good, but nothing special for a big man. He has the ability to take his man of the dribble, but is more comfortable giving the ball to a guard on the break instead of taking it himself, which is usually a smart thing to do.
Edge: Jones
Defense
Jones: With his length and leaping ability, Jones is an very good shot blocker, but not elite. Where he really excels is guarding his man. He's got the strength to guard 4's and 5's, but also the lateral quickness to guard wings and guards, making him one of the most versatile defender in basketball. He should also be very good guarding pick and rolls.
Davis: Having a 7-4 wingspan is one thing, but Davis also displays the timing and instincts of an elite shot blocker. He could easily block 2.5+ shots a game in college and near that many in the pros, he's just an natural shot blocker with tools to do it. Though not as good as Jones, Davis is still very good when switching on quicker players, however it's in the post that worries come. His length causes problems for post players, but the lack of bulk and lower body strength could cause him to be push around on defense by bigger players.
Edge: Push
Rebounding
Jones: Jones has all the tools of a great rebounder, but Baylor's system hides it occasionally. Despite that, he lacks the elite rebounding instincts you see in some of the best rebounders. He's much better on the offensive glass, though, so that's a good sign. I'd say if he ends up at power forward, he'll be an average rebounder, whereas he'll be above average at the 3.
Davis: Look, the guy averaged 22 rebounds a game his Senior year of high school, so you know he's got that ability. Projecting him to college and the NBA, you see a guy who's got the reach, but also has great instincts tracking the ball off the rim and will rebound out of his area consistently. As with his post play, Davis' lack of strength may hinder him a bit as a rebounder, but once he's bulks up even 20 pounds that should be an issue.
Edge: Davis
Motor
Jones: Though he's received the rep as a guy with a bad motor, that's just not the case. Jones almost always plays hard, but he just defers to teammates more than he should. With his talent, he should be a dominant player, but he is too unselfish at times.
Davis: Davis has a great motor, trying to block every shot, pursuing rebounds outside his area, and consistently running the floor.
Edge: Davis
Bottom Line
Jones: Perry Jones is perhaps the most gifted player in the country, but terrible guard play and oversized expectations derailed his first season. He was actually very good when it came to things he could control, but he didn't have the breakout season that some people were unfairly expecting. If he can improve all around his Sophomore year, especially from 3 point range, he'll have a shot at the top pick in the 2012 draft and will certainly be a top 5 pick whether it's at the 3 or the 4.
Davis: From a relative unknown as a Junior to the consensus number one recruit this year, Davis has had one of the most interesting paths to stardom in recent history. Scouts have also pegged him as the favorite to be the top pick in the 2012 draft. It'll be hard for him to blow it in his first season, the only thing he really has to do is put on some weight because all the other tools are there to average 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.5+ blocks on a loaded Kentucky team.
Overall edge: Davis, but not by much. Jones has a higher ceiling, but Davis has a higher floor as well as a pretty high ceiling himself.
Perry Jones Highlights
Anthony Davis Highlights
Up next: Harrison Barnes vs. Michael Gilchrist
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Top Prospect Profiles: Josh Selby
Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 185) Age: 20
Strengths: Super quick, athletic point guard. Very hard to stay in front of, penetrater. A strong finisher at the rim. Good shooter. Can be a very good lead guard when he has the ball in his hands an is comfortable. Can be a lockdown defender.
Weaknesses: Not a pure point guard, good floor vision but is more into his scoring. Needs to have the ball in his hands. Can be a streaky shooter. Settles for jumpshots too much. Had a dreadful freshman season at Kansas.
NBA Comparison: Rodney Stuckey, Pistons
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first round
Season Stats: 20.4 mpg, 7.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.2 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.0 bpg, 38%/75%/36%
Strengths: Super quick, athletic point guard. Very hard to stay in front of, penetrater. A strong finisher at the rim. Good shooter. Can be a very good lead guard when he has the ball in his hands an is comfortable. Can be a lockdown defender.
Weaknesses: Not a pure point guard, good floor vision but is more into his scoring. Needs to have the ball in his hands. Can be a streaky shooter. Settles for jumpshots too much. Had a dreadful freshman season at Kansas.
NBA Comparison: Rodney Stuckey, Pistons
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first round
Season Stats: 20.4 mpg, 7.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.2 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.0 bpg, 38%/75%/36%
Top Prospect Profiles: Klay Thompson
Klay Thompson, SG Washington State Jr. (6-6, 200) Age: 21
Strengths: Skilled shooting guard with a high basketball IQ. Good athlete. Tremendous shooter with deep range. Very good ball handler and passer. Leader on the court. Great rebounder for his size. Good finisher at the basket, excellent free throw shooter.
Weaknesses: Not always a very efficient scorer. Lacks great lateral quickness and could struggle on defense. Can be turnover prone. Tries to do too much at times.
NBA Comparison: Landry Fields, Knicks
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first
Season Stats: 34.7 mpg, 21.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 spg, 0.9 bpg, 44%/84%/40%
Highlights
Strengths: Skilled shooting guard with a high basketball IQ. Good athlete. Tremendous shooter with deep range. Very good ball handler and passer. Leader on the court. Great rebounder for his size. Good finisher at the basket, excellent free throw shooter.
Weaknesses: Not always a very efficient scorer. Lacks great lateral quickness and could struggle on defense. Can be turnover prone. Tries to do too much at times.
NBA Comparison: Landry Fields, Knicks
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first
Season Stats: 34.7 mpg, 21.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.6 spg, 0.9 bpg, 44%/84%/40%
Highlights
Top Prospect Profiles: Tyler Honeycutt
Tyler Honeycutt, SF UCLA So. (6-9, 200)
Strengths: Athletic, versatile forward has a tremendous basketball IQ. Can handle and pass like a point guard. Very good rebounder. Elite shotblocker for his position. Lockdown, grinding defensive player. Improving consistency from 3 point range.
Weaknesses: Beside shooting, doesn't offer a ton on offense. Needs to bulk up some.
NBA Comparison: Tayshuan Prince, Pistons
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first
Season Stats: 35 mpg, 12.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 0.9 spg, 2.1 bpg, 40%/74%/36%
Strengths: Athletic, versatile forward has a tremendous basketball IQ. Can handle and pass like a point guard. Very good rebounder. Elite shotblocker for his position. Lockdown, grinding defensive player. Improving consistency from 3 point range.
Weaknesses: Beside shooting, doesn't offer a ton on offense. Needs to bulk up some.
NBA Comparison: Tayshuan Prince, Pistons
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first
Season Stats: 35 mpg, 12.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 0.9 spg, 2.1 bpg, 40%/74%/36%
Top Prospect Profiles: C.J. Leslie
C.J. Leslie, PF North Carolina State Fr. (6-9, 205)
Strengths: Long, athletic forward. Freakish athleticism and super explosive leaping ability. Flies up and down the court. Good rebounder. Excellent shot blocker. Surprisingly good ball handler. Huge upside.
Weaknesses: No post game to speak of. Shooting form needs a lot of work, poor free throw shooter. Can have very bad shot selection. Needs to bulk up a lot, very thin for a power forward.
NBA Comparison: Anthony Randolph, Timberwolves
Draft Projection: Late first-early second
Season Stats: 24.6 mpg, 11 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.4 bpg, 43%/54%/25% (FG/FT/3P)
Strengths: Long, athletic forward. Freakish athleticism and super explosive leaping ability. Flies up and down the court. Good rebounder. Excellent shot blocker. Surprisingly good ball handler. Huge upside.
Weaknesses: No post game to speak of. Shooting form needs a lot of work, poor free throw shooter. Can have very bad shot selection. Needs to bulk up a lot, very thin for a power forward.
NBA Comparison: Anthony Randolph, Timberwolves
Draft Projection: Late first-early second
Season Stats: 24.6 mpg, 11 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.4 bpg, 43%/54%/25% (FG/FT/3P)
Top Prospect Profiles: Trey Thompkins
Trey Thompkins, PF Georgia Jr. (6-10, 245) Age: 20
Strengths: Versatile forward can do it all. Good shooter with NBA range. Can bang in the post on offense and defense. Good rebounder and shot blocker.
Weaknesses: Not an explosive athlete. Isn't great at anything. Sometimes struggles to stay in shape, especially when dealing with nagging injuries. Coming off a down year.
NBA Comparison: David West, Hornets
Draft Projection: Late first
Season Stats: 31.2 mpg, 16.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.7 bpg, 48%/69%/31%
Strengths: Versatile forward can do it all. Good shooter with NBA range. Can bang in the post on offense and defense. Good rebounder and shot blocker.
Weaknesses: Not an explosive athlete. Isn't great at anything. Sometimes struggles to stay in shape, especially when dealing with nagging injuries. Coming off a down year.
NBA Comparison: David West, Hornets
Draft Projection: Late first
Season Stats: 31.2 mpg, 16.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.1 spg, 1.7 bpg, 48%/69%/31%
Top Prospect Profiles: Khris Middleton
Khris Middleton, SF Texas A&M So. (6-7, 210) Age: 19
Strengths: Long, athletic forward. Good scorer with a nice midrange game. Improving 3 point shooter. Can drive the ball and is a good finisher. Can get his own shot. Tough, hard nosed defender. Good passer sees the floor well. Point forward potential. Good rebounder for his position.
Weaknesses: Doesn't do anything great. Needs to work on his 3 point consistency. Doesn't have elite athleticism. Doesn't always dominate like he can.
NBA Comparison: Caron Butler, Mavericks
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first round
Season Stats: 29.6 mpg, 14.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.1 bpg, 45%/78%/36% (FG/FT/3P)
Strengths: Long, athletic forward. Good scorer with a nice midrange game. Improving 3 point shooter. Can drive the ball and is a good finisher. Can get his own shot. Tough, hard nosed defender. Good passer sees the floor well. Point forward potential. Good rebounder for his position.
Weaknesses: Doesn't do anything great. Needs to work on his 3 point consistency. Doesn't have elite athleticism. Doesn't always dominate like he can.
NBA Comparison: Caron Butler, Mavericks
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first round
Season Stats: 29.6 mpg, 14.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.1 bpg, 45%/78%/36% (FG/FT/3P)
Top Prospect Profiles: Tobias Harris
Tobias Harris, SF Tennessee Fr. (6-8, 225) Age: 18
Strengths: Versatile forward with high basketball IQ. NBA range on jumpshot. Can handle and pass like a guard, point forward ability. Good rebounder. Smart team defender.
Weaknesses: Not an explosive athlete. Undersized to play the 4, can he play the 3? A bit too unselfish at times. Doesn't block a ton of shots or draw a ton of fouls.
NBA Comparison: Shane Battier, Grizzlies
Draft Projection: Late first
Season Stats: 29.2 mpg, 15.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.7 spg, 0.9 bpg, 46%/75%/30% (FG/FT/3P)
Strengths: Versatile forward with high basketball IQ. NBA range on jumpshot. Can handle and pass like a guard, point forward ability. Good rebounder. Smart team defender.
Weaknesses: Not an explosive athlete. Undersized to play the 4, can he play the 3? A bit too unselfish at times. Doesn't block a ton of shots or draw a ton of fouls.
NBA Comparison: Shane Battier, Grizzlies
Draft Projection: Late first
Season Stats: 29.2 mpg, 15.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.7 spg, 0.9 bpg, 46%/75%/30% (FG/FT/3P)
Top Prospect Profiles: Mason Plumblee
Mason Plumlee, PF Duke So. (6-10, 230) Age: 21
Strengths: Big, athletic big man. Plays with great energy and motor. Very good rebounder, especially on the offensive glass, and shot blocker. Mobile, quick laterally. Powerful finisher. Can hit a midrange jumpshot consistently.
Weaknesses: Still raw offensively, not much of a post game. Not very productive scoring. Usually a smart player, but can make some dumb plays. Poor free throw shooter. Needs to get stronger. Old for his class.
NBA Comparison: Kenyon Martin, Nuggets
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first round
Season Stats: 25.6 mpg, 7.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.9 apg, 1.7 bpg, 59%/44%/NA (FG/FT/3P)
Strengths: Big, athletic big man. Plays with great energy and motor. Very good rebounder, especially on the offensive glass, and shot blocker. Mobile, quick laterally. Powerful finisher. Can hit a midrange jumpshot consistently.
Weaknesses: Still raw offensively, not much of a post game. Not very productive scoring. Usually a smart player, but can make some dumb plays. Poor free throw shooter. Needs to get stronger. Old for his class.
NBA Comparison: Kenyon Martin, Nuggets
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first round
Season Stats: 25.6 mpg, 7.3 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.9 apg, 1.7 bpg, 59%/44%/NA (FG/FT/3P)
Top Prospect Profiles: Lucas Nogueria
Lucas Nogueria, C Brazil (6-11, 220) Age: 18
Strengths: Long, athletic big man. Huge 7-6 wingspan. Good hands. Explosive athleticism. Very good lateral quickness. Excellent shot blocker and rebounder. Great motor. Potential to be an very good defender in the Joakim Noah mode.
Weaknesses: Very raw on offensive end. Inexperienced. Needs to add a ton of strength and bulk.
NBA Comparison: Hassan Whiteside, Kings
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first
Season Stats: NA
Highlights
Strengths: Long, athletic big man. Huge 7-6 wingspan. Good hands. Explosive athleticism. Very good lateral quickness. Excellent shot blocker and rebounder. Great motor. Potential to be an very good defender in the Joakim Noah mode.
Weaknesses: Very raw on offensive end. Inexperienced. Needs to add a ton of strength and bulk.
NBA Comparison: Hassan Whiteside, Kings
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first
Season Stats: NA
Highlights
Top Prospect Profiles: Markieff Morris
Markieff Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-10, 145) Age: 21
Strengths: Good size, strength, length and athleticism. Rapidly improving offensive player can shoot from 3, drive, and post up. Good rebounder and shot blocker. Excellent, smart on-man defender, good at not pick up fouls.
Weaknesses: Doesn't have elite size, strength or athleticism. Still not a finished product on offense. Can try to do too much and turn the ball over. Sometimes has trouble finishing through contact. Would've liked to see him block more shots.
NBA Comparison: Antonio McDyess, Spurs
Draft Projection: Mid-first
Season Stats: 24.4 mpg, 13.6 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.1 bpg, 59%/67%/42% (FG/FT/3P)
Strengths: Good size, strength, length and athleticism. Rapidly improving offensive player can shoot from 3, drive, and post up. Good rebounder and shot blocker. Excellent, smart on-man defender, good at not pick up fouls.
Weaknesses: Doesn't have elite size, strength or athleticism. Still not a finished product on offense. Can try to do too much and turn the ball over. Sometimes has trouble finishing through contact. Would've liked to see him block more shots.
NBA Comparison: Antonio McDyess, Spurs
Draft Projection: Mid-first
Season Stats: 24.4 mpg, 13.6 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.1 bpg, 59%/67%/42% (FG/FT/3P)
Top Prospect Profiles: Jimmer Fredette
Jimmer Fredette, PG BYU Sr. (6-2, 205) Age: 22
Strengths: Big time shooter, scorer. Can really fill it up. Endless range on his jumper. Very good at creating space for shots with stepbacks, crossovers. Flexible, good body control. Good bulk, strong. Very high basketball IQ. Terrific intangibles.
Weaknesses: Not an explosive athlete. Not a pure point guard, an undersized shooting guard. Can get scoring tunnel vision. Terrible defensive player, doesn't give much effort at all.
NBA Comparison: Mike Bibby, Heat
Draft Projection: Mid-first
Season Stats: 35.8 mpg, 28.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.0 bpg, 45%/89%/39%
Highlights
Strengths: Big time shooter, scorer. Can really fill it up. Endless range on his jumper. Very good at creating space for shots with stepbacks, crossovers. Flexible, good body control. Good bulk, strong. Very high basketball IQ. Terrific intangibles.
Weaknesses: Not an explosive athlete. Not a pure point guard, an undersized shooting guard. Can get scoring tunnel vision. Terrible defensive player, doesn't give much effort at all.
NBA Comparison: Mike Bibby, Heat
Draft Projection: Mid-first
Season Stats: 35.8 mpg, 28.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.0 bpg, 45%/89%/39%
Highlights
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Top Prospect Profiles: Patric Young
Patric Young, PF/C Florida Fr. (6-9, 235)
Strengths: Big NBA body, great length and athleticism. Very strong hands. Excellent rebounder and shot blocker, aggressive. Has the potential to be an elite NBA defender.
Weaknesses: Very raw on offense. Inexperienced. Not very productive. Undersized to play the 5.
NBA Comparison: Serge Ibaka, Thunder
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first
Season Stats: 17.8 mpg, 3.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.3 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.8 bpg, 57%/70%/NA (FG/FT/3P)
Strengths: Big NBA body, great length and athleticism. Very strong hands. Excellent rebounder and shot blocker, aggressive. Has the potential to be an elite NBA defender.
Weaknesses: Very raw on offense. Inexperienced. Not very productive. Undersized to play the 5.
NBA Comparison: Serge Ibaka, Thunder
Draft Projection: Mid-to-late first
Season Stats: 17.8 mpg, 3.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.3 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.8 bpg, 57%/70%/NA (FG/FT/3P)
Top Prospect Profiles: Marcus Morris
Marcus Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 235)
Strengths: Versatile offensive player: can shoot from 3, score in the post, and drive. Good hands and touch. Excellent motor. Good rebounder and defender. High basketball IQ.
Weaknesses: Could be closer to 6-8. Not an explosive athlete or tremendously long. Needs to improve free throw shooting. Would like to see him block more shots.
NBA Comparison: Paul Millsap, Jazz
Draft Projection: Mid-first
Season Stats: 28.3 mpg, 17.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.6 bpg, 57%/69%/34% (FG/FT/3P)
Highlights
Strengths: Versatile offensive player: can shoot from 3, score in the post, and drive. Good hands and touch. Excellent motor. Good rebounder and defender. High basketball IQ.
Weaknesses: Could be closer to 6-8. Not an explosive athlete or tremendously long. Needs to improve free throw shooting. Would like to see him block more shots.
NBA Comparison: Paul Millsap, Jazz
Draft Projection: Mid-first
Season Stats: 28.3 mpg, 17.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.6 bpg, 57%/69%/34% (FG/FT/3P)
Highlights
2011 NBA Mock Draft: 4/24
First Round
1. Minnesota Timberwolves: Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-2, 180)
I know what you're thinking, another point guard? But it's really the pick that makes the most sense. Luke Ridnour isn't the future, Jonny Flynn is best suited as a second guard, and Ricky Rubio has more value as a trade chip than as a player. Plus Irving is the best player available and has the potential to push a dismal Timberwolves team into semi-respectability.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers: Derrick Williams, PF Arizona So. (6-8, 240)
The Cavaliers want Kyrie Irving and hope that they'll win the lottery, but if they end up where the odds have them, at number 2, Derrick Williams will make a nice consolation prize. Williams will be a building block piece for this team and should find plenty of playing time at both the 3 and the 4.
3. Toronto Raptors: Enes Kanter, PF/C Turkey (6-10, 255)
Enes Kanter is the last of the top tier of prospects in my mind and whether Toronto thinks he's a fit on his team or not, you've got to take him. That said, I like his fit on this team. Kanter isn't a great shot blocker, but he's a good, smart defender and a tremendous rebounder. Andrea Bargnani doesn't do either of those things so Toronto could mix and match lineups of Kanter, Ed Davis, Bargnani, and Amir Johnson.
4. Washington Wizards: Jan Vesely, PF Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
When you watch the Wizards you notice a lack of energy and effort from a lot of their players. Well, energy and effort are Jan Vesely's specialties. He's long and athletic and can block shots and defend, as well as hit three's and finish big time in transition, two things you want when putting players around John Wall.
5. Utah Jazz (from New Jersey Nets): Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 170)
It's hard to imagine Kemba Walker will go in the top 5, but with a lot of the top players returning to school, Walker is incredibly considered one of the safer picks available. The Jazz have Devin Harris to play point guard for a couple years, but Walker can play behind and beside him to learn the trade and be the future at the point guard position for Utah.
6. Sacramento Kings: Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-10, 230)
The Kings traded Carl Landry at the deadline and will lose Samuel Dalembert to free agency so Jason Thompson and DeMarcus Cousins will get plenty of playing time and hopefully blossom. Jonas Valanciunas will give them a very good three big rotation if he can refine his game some.
7. Detroit Pistons: Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-8, 235)
Greg Monroe had an outstanding rookie season and really took off when Chris Wilcox was slotted at power forward next to him. You don't want Chris Wilcox in your starting lineup but Tristan Thompson is similar in that he's a long, athletic shot blocker but has considerable more offensive upside than Wilcox.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (from L.A. Clippers): Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-3, 185)
The Cavaliers have Ramon Sessions and Baron Davis at the point, but neither guy is the future and Sessions will likely be traded this summer. Brandon Knight is ready to score in the NBA right now (and could even plays some 2 guard) but his point guard skills need work. He'll have time to develop those and be ready to take over at point guard in a year or two.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves: Kyrie Irving, PG Duke Fr. (6-2, 180)
I know what you're thinking, another point guard? But it's really the pick that makes the most sense. Luke Ridnour isn't the future, Jonny Flynn is best suited as a second guard, and Ricky Rubio has more value as a trade chip than as a player. Plus Irving is the best player available and has the potential to push a dismal Timberwolves team into semi-respectability.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers: Derrick Williams, PF Arizona So. (6-8, 240)
The Cavaliers want Kyrie Irving and hope that they'll win the lottery, but if they end up where the odds have them, at number 2, Derrick Williams will make a nice consolation prize. Williams will be a building block piece for this team and should find plenty of playing time at both the 3 and the 4.
3. Toronto Raptors: Enes Kanter, PF/C Turkey (6-10, 255)
Enes Kanter is the last of the top tier of prospects in my mind and whether Toronto thinks he's a fit on his team or not, you've got to take him. That said, I like his fit on this team. Kanter isn't a great shot blocker, but he's a good, smart defender and a tremendous rebounder. Andrea Bargnani doesn't do either of those things so Toronto could mix and match lineups of Kanter, Ed Davis, Bargnani, and Amir Johnson.
4. Washington Wizards: Jan Vesely, PF Czech Republic (6-11, 240)
When you watch the Wizards you notice a lack of energy and effort from a lot of their players. Well, energy and effort are Jan Vesely's specialties. He's long and athletic and can block shots and defend, as well as hit three's and finish big time in transition, two things you want when putting players around John Wall.
5. Utah Jazz (from New Jersey Nets): Kemba Walker, PG UCONN Jr. (6-1, 170)
It's hard to imagine Kemba Walker will go in the top 5, but with a lot of the top players returning to school, Walker is incredibly considered one of the safer picks available. The Jazz have Devin Harris to play point guard for a couple years, but Walker can play behind and beside him to learn the trade and be the future at the point guard position for Utah.
6. Sacramento Kings: Jonas Valanciunas, PF Lithuania (6-10, 230)
The Kings traded Carl Landry at the deadline and will lose Samuel Dalembert to free agency so Jason Thompson and DeMarcus Cousins will get plenty of playing time and hopefully blossom. Jonas Valanciunas will give them a very good three big rotation if he can refine his game some.
7. Detroit Pistons: Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-8, 235)
Greg Monroe had an outstanding rookie season and really took off when Chris Wilcox was slotted at power forward next to him. You don't want Chris Wilcox in your starting lineup but Tristan Thompson is similar in that he's a long, athletic shot blocker but has considerable more offensive upside than Wilcox.
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (from L.A. Clippers): Brandon Knight, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-3, 185)
The Cavaliers have Ramon Sessions and Baron Davis at the point, but neither guy is the future and Sessions will likely be traded this summer. Brandon Knight is ready to score in the NBA right now (and could even plays some 2 guard) but his point guard skills need work. He'll have time to develop those and be ready to take over at point guard in a year or two.
9. Charlotte Bobcats: Terrence Jones, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-8, 225)
Dominic McGuire and Eduardo Najara are the only true small forwards on the Bobcats roster (Stephen Jackson is a 2 guard) and that's not good. John Callipari asked Terrence Jones to take a backseat and fill a lesser role as a rebounder on a guard dominated Final Four team and his stock has dropped (make sense of that one) but he's still going to be a top 10 pick and could be a steal.
10. Milwaukee Bucks: Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas So. (6-7, 215)
The Bucks offense is dreadful, even when everyone is healthy. Jordan Hamilton is one of the best scorers in the country and should be able to help the Bucks anemic offense get going. Hamilton also is a good rebounder and defender.11. Golden State Warriors: Bismack Biyombo, PF/C Congo (6-9, 245)
The Warriors drafted Ekpe Udoh to be a defensive presence at the center position and he had a promising rookie season when he got on the court but he's better suited to play power forward. Biyombo has tremendous defensive upside and also the length and strength to play center and anchor the Warriors defense.12. Utah Jazz: Kawhi Leonard, SF San Diego State So. (6-7, 225)
Kawhi Leonard is an unusual player who's one of the best rebounders in the country but is also an emerging offensive player. The Jazz will have a hole at the 3 if both Andrei Kirilenko and C.J. Miles leave via free agency.13. Phoenix Suns: Kenneth Faried, PF Morehead State Sr. (6-8, 230)
The Suns options at power forward are Hakim Warrick and Gani Lawal, Warrick has ability but isn't a good rebounder or defender. Kenneth Faried is the best rebounder in the country and has the length, athleticism and lateral quickness to be an ace defensive player.14. Houston Rockets: Donatas Motiejunas, PF Lithuania (7-0, 220)
The Rockets have talented players at every position so they have the freedom to take a luxury pick. Donatas Motiejunas is the most talented offensive players in this draft but questions about his defense, rebounding, and effort cause him to drop.The Pacers could lose Josh McRoberts, Jeff Foster, and Solomon Jones to free agency so they'll be minute available in their frontcourt. Marcus Morris would make a nice backup power forward with his do-it-all skill set.
16. Philadelphia 76ers: Patric Young, PF/C Florida Fr. (6-9, 235)
Tony Battie got minutes in the 76ers opening round series against the Heat because Marreese Speights is a terrible defender and takes awful shots. Plus, Spencer Hawes is a free agent this summer. Patric Young is very raw on offense, but his defense and rebounding are NBA ready.
17. New York Knicks: Jimmer Fredette Sr. (6-2, 205)
Jimmer Fredette was born to play in Madison Square Garden and for Mike D'Antoni. His fantastic ability to score and hit deep shots will be adored by MSG fans while his total lack of defensive ability and effort (he somehow blocked only 1 shot in only 1323 minutes) will fit right in with D'Antoni's style of coaching.
18. Washington Wizards (from Atlanta Hawks): Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 225)
However low the collective basketball IQ of some of the Wizards players is, they've got some ability on offense if they take good shots. Their defense, however, was abysmal. Chris Singleton is a classic defensive stopper who can knock down jumpshots and shutdown the opponents best player.
19. Charlotte Bobcats (from New Orleans Hornets): Markieff Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-10, 245)
The Bobcats seem to favor versatile, face up power forwards but will be losing two to free agency in Boris Diaw and Dante Cunningham. Markieff Morris fits that mold and is the kind of premier college player Michael Jordan loves.
20. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis Grizzlies): Lucas Nogueria, C Brazil (7-0, 220)
The Timberwolves have a stuff roster with little room for players next season. They also have terrific foreign scouts and should be very aware of Lucas Nogueria's potential to be the elite defender in the middle of their defense alongside Kevin Love a few years down the road after playing some in Europe.
21. Portland Trailblazers: Reggie Jackson, PG Boston College Jr. (6-3, 205)
Andre Miller has taken over as the Trailblazers point guard, but he's 35 and the only other option is Patty Mills. Reggie Jackson is super athletic, can shoot, and run a team. He could be the heir apparent at point guard in Portland.
22. Denver Nuggets: Mason Plumlee, PF Duke So. (6-10, 235)
Kenyon Martin is a free agent this summer and it's hard to imagine they'll bring him back after Nene is resigned. Martin brought a lot of defense and energy to the Nuggets and Mason Plumlee should be able to bring some of that for the Nuggets, with more upside.
23. Houston Rockets (from Orlando Magic): Tobias Harris, SF Tennessee Fr. (6-8, 225)
It must have pained the Rockets to trade favorite son Shane Battier, so it would surprise me if they use their second first round pick if they targeted a similar player. Tobias Harris is a super smart, versatile player much like Battier.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Khris Middleton, SF Texas A&M So. (6-7, 210)
The Thunder's second unit scoring is very reliant on James Harden, who is up to the task, but it would be smart to find another scorer to help him out. Khris Middleton is a perfect backup second unit small forward because he can score in a multitude of ways and also defend, rebound, and pass.
25. Boston Celtics: Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 185)
This is purely an upside luxury pick. Josh Selby has worlds of talent but he was a bad fit at Kansas and couldn't ever get it going. The Celtics would give him a team of veterans to mentor him and the ability to bring him along slowly as a backup to Rajon Rondo.
26. Dallas Mavericks: Trey Thompkins, PF Georgia Jr. (6-10, 245)
Behind Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavericks have Ian Mahinmi and Brian Cardinal, which isn't good. Trey Thompkins isn't great at anything, but does everything well. A perfect backup 4.
27. New Jersey Nets (from L.A. Lakers): C.J. Leslie, PF North Carolina State Fr. (6-9, 205)
This pick is all upside for the Nets. They need some big time players to pair with Deron Williams and C.J. Leslie is the only player available this late with that kind of upside.
28. Chicago Bulls (from Miami Heat): Tyler Honeycutt, SF UCLA So. (6-9, 200)
Luol Deng is so important to the Bulls, but he logs a ton of minutes during the regular season and that's just tempting fate with a player who's had injury problems in the past. A guy like Tyler Honeycutt, who can hit open shots, pass, and is a very good defender can help give Deng some extra bench time without costing the Bulls too much.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Nikola Mirotic, SF Serbia (6-10, 225)
The Spurs have a packed roster and are notorious for taking Euros and stashing them overseas. Nikola Mirotic is a classic Euro with a high skill level and basketball IQ, but also has a burdensome buyout that will keep him in Europe for a couple years.
30. Chicago Bulls: Klay Thompson, SG Washington State Jr. (6-6, 200)
Keith Bogans has become the king of missing open three pointers early in games. His defense is good, but he hurts the Bulls offense. Klay Thompson isn't as good a defender, but he's a fantastic shooter and should help to take some of the scoring load off of Derrick Rose.
Tony Battie got minutes in the 76ers opening round series against the Heat because Marreese Speights is a terrible defender and takes awful shots. Plus, Spencer Hawes is a free agent this summer. Patric Young is very raw on offense, but his defense and rebounding are NBA ready.
17. New York Knicks: Jimmer Fredette Sr. (6-2, 205)
Jimmer Fredette was born to play in Madison Square Garden and for Mike D'Antoni. His fantastic ability to score and hit deep shots will be adored by MSG fans while his total lack of defensive ability and effort (he somehow blocked only 1 shot in only 1323 minutes) will fit right in with D'Antoni's style of coaching.
18. Washington Wizards (from Atlanta Hawks): Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 225)
However low the collective basketball IQ of some of the Wizards players is, they've got some ability on offense if they take good shots. Their defense, however, was abysmal. Chris Singleton is a classic defensive stopper who can knock down jumpshots and shutdown the opponents best player.
19. Charlotte Bobcats (from New Orleans Hornets): Markieff Morris, PF Kansas Jr. (6-10, 245)
The Bobcats seem to favor versatile, face up power forwards but will be losing two to free agency in Boris Diaw and Dante Cunningham. Markieff Morris fits that mold and is the kind of premier college player Michael Jordan loves.
20. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Memphis Grizzlies): Lucas Nogueria, C Brazil (7-0, 220)
The Timberwolves have a stuff roster with little room for players next season. They also have terrific foreign scouts and should be very aware of Lucas Nogueria's potential to be the elite defender in the middle of their defense alongside Kevin Love a few years down the road after playing some in Europe.
21. Portland Trailblazers: Reggie Jackson, PG Boston College Jr. (6-3, 205)
Andre Miller has taken over as the Trailblazers point guard, but he's 35 and the only other option is Patty Mills. Reggie Jackson is super athletic, can shoot, and run a team. He could be the heir apparent at point guard in Portland.
22. Denver Nuggets: Mason Plumlee, PF Duke So. (6-10, 235)
Kenyon Martin is a free agent this summer and it's hard to imagine they'll bring him back after Nene is resigned. Martin brought a lot of defense and energy to the Nuggets and Mason Plumlee should be able to bring some of that for the Nuggets, with more upside.
23. Houston Rockets (from Orlando Magic): Tobias Harris, SF Tennessee Fr. (6-8, 225)
It must have pained the Rockets to trade favorite son Shane Battier, so it would surprise me if they use their second first round pick if they targeted a similar player. Tobias Harris is a super smart, versatile player much like Battier.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder: Khris Middleton, SF Texas A&M So. (6-7, 210)
The Thunder's second unit scoring is very reliant on James Harden, who is up to the task, but it would be smart to find another scorer to help him out. Khris Middleton is a perfect backup second unit small forward because he can score in a multitude of ways and also defend, rebound, and pass.
25. Boston Celtics: Josh Selby, PG Kansas Fr. (6-3, 185)
This is purely an upside luxury pick. Josh Selby has worlds of talent but he was a bad fit at Kansas and couldn't ever get it going. The Celtics would give him a team of veterans to mentor him and the ability to bring him along slowly as a backup to Rajon Rondo.
26. Dallas Mavericks: Trey Thompkins, PF Georgia Jr. (6-10, 245)
Behind Dirk Nowitzki, the Mavericks have Ian Mahinmi and Brian Cardinal, which isn't good. Trey Thompkins isn't great at anything, but does everything well. A perfect backup 4.
27. New Jersey Nets (from L.A. Lakers): C.J. Leslie, PF North Carolina State Fr. (6-9, 205)
This pick is all upside for the Nets. They need some big time players to pair with Deron Williams and C.J. Leslie is the only player available this late with that kind of upside.
28. Chicago Bulls (from Miami Heat): Tyler Honeycutt, SF UCLA So. (6-9, 200)
Luol Deng is so important to the Bulls, but he logs a ton of minutes during the regular season and that's just tempting fate with a player who's had injury problems in the past. A guy like Tyler Honeycutt, who can hit open shots, pass, and is a very good defender can help give Deng some extra bench time without costing the Bulls too much.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Nikola Mirotic, SF Serbia (6-10, 225)
The Spurs have a packed roster and are notorious for taking Euros and stashing them overseas. Nikola Mirotic is a classic Euro with a high skill level and basketball IQ, but also has a burdensome buyout that will keep him in Europe for a couple years.
30. Chicago Bulls: Klay Thompson, SG Washington State Jr. (6-6, 200)
Keith Bogans has become the king of missing open three pointers early in games. His defense is good, but he hurts the Bulls offense. Klay Thompson isn't as good a defender, but he's a fantastic shooter and should help to take some of the scoring load off of Derrick Rose.
Top Prospect Profiles: Tristan Thompson
Tristan Thompson, PF Texas Fr. (6-8, 235) Age: 20
Strengths: Huge 7-2 wingspan and good leaping ability. Can score in the paint or hit a midrange jumpshot. Big, soft hands and nice touch around the basket. Excellent shot-blocker and rebounder, especially on the offensive end. Big time motor, never stops. Good lateral quickness and a potential to be an elite defender.
Weaknesses: Undersized, though the wingspan negates most of that. Not a dominant scorer or a player who commands defensive attention. Should look to become more aggressive on offense. Overall offensive game needs polish. Needs to bulk up. Old for his class.
NBA Comparison: Kris Humphries, Nets
Draft Projection: Top 10
Season Stats: 30.9 mpg, 13.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.9 spg, 2.4 bpg, 55%/49%/NA (FG/FT/3P)
Strengths: Huge 7-2 wingspan and good leaping ability. Can score in the paint or hit a midrange jumpshot. Big, soft hands and nice touch around the basket. Excellent shot-blocker and rebounder, especially on the offensive end. Big time motor, never stops. Good lateral quickness and a potential to be an elite defender.
Weaknesses: Undersized, though the wingspan negates most of that. Not a dominant scorer or a player who commands defensive attention. Should look to become more aggressive on offense. Overall offensive game needs polish. Needs to bulk up. Old for his class.
NBA Comparison: Kris Humphries, Nets
Draft Projection: Top 10
Season Stats: 30.9 mpg, 13.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.9 spg, 2.4 bpg, 55%/49%/NA (FG/FT/3P)
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Top Prospect Profiles: Reggie Jackson
Reggie Jackson, PG Boston College Jr. (6-3, 210) Age: 21
Strengths: Freakishly long (7-0 wingspan) and a big time athlete. Excellent penetration with a tight handle and quick first step. Very fast from end to end. Good finisher at the rim. Improving jump shooter with NBA range. Good court vision and passing ability. Potential lock down defender. Has the frame to add some more bulk.
Weaknesses: Needs to work on consistency with his jumpshot. Can he run an NBA team? A bit turnover prone.
NBA Comparison: Jeff Teague, Hawks
Draft Projection: Mid to late first
Season Stats: 34.1 mpg, 18.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.5 bpg, 50%/79%/42% (FG/FT/3P)
Highlights
Strengths: Freakishly long (7-0 wingspan) and a big time athlete. Excellent penetration with a tight handle and quick first step. Very fast from end to end. Good finisher at the rim. Improving jump shooter with NBA range. Good court vision and passing ability. Potential lock down defender. Has the frame to add some more bulk.
Weaknesses: Needs to work on consistency with his jumpshot. Can he run an NBA team? A bit turnover prone.
NBA Comparison: Jeff Teague, Hawks
Draft Projection: Mid to late first
Season Stats: 34.1 mpg, 18.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.5 bpg, 50%/79%/42% (FG/FT/3P)
Highlights
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
2011 NFL Mock Draft: 4/21
1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB Auburn Jr. (6-5, 248)
This seems to be the consensus pick for Carolina at this point, and to me it makes a lot of sense. If you're a bad, small market team without a lot of hope on the horizon, creating buzz for your team is almost as important as improving on the field. I know Panther fans will scream that they don't want Newton, but you want to bet that his jersey will lead sales for the team? I think so.
2. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama Jr. (6-3, 319)
The Broncos shouldn't even look offense until at least 4 picks in. There's holes all over Denver's defense while their offense is good enough to stand pat on until the later rounds. Two areas of big concern for the Broncos are the trouble they had generating pressure and stopping the run last season. Don't buy the Von Miller talk, he doesn't fit their system and the Broncos want to trade down: you do the math.
3. Buffalo Bills: Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M Sr. (6-3, 246)
I'm not sure if the Bills infatuation is for real, or another smoke screen like with Denver. If the Bills intend on switching back to a 4-3, then I don't think he's worth the pick, but if they're staying with the 3-4, I buy it. Buffalo finished 29th in the league in sacks last season with 27, Miller had 39 in his last two seasons at Texas A&M.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, Georgia Jr. (6-4, 211)
The Bengals have a number of options depending on how things shake out above them, they could go quarterback or defensive line if A.J. Green is gone, or best player available and take Patrick Peterson. Green is most likely at the top of Bengals board and will be the pick if available.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson, CB LSU Jr. (6-1, 219)
This pick is equal parts value and need. Peterson is the most talented player in this draft and the Cardinals could use an upgrade over Greg Toler, who is better suited to play nickle.
6. Cleveland Browns: Robert Quinn, DE North Carolina Jr. (6-4, 265)
Cleveland fans are clamoring for Julio Jones, rightly stating that their wide receiving corp is one of the worst in the league. Well, unfortunately for the Browns, their stable of defensive linemen is comparatively even worse. They've only got one guy on the roster who'd start on a 4 man front for any other team in the league.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri Jr. (6-4, 234)
The 49ers were easily the most talented team in their division last season, yet finished third because of bad quarterback play. If quarterback guru Jim Harbaugh can work some magic on Blaine Gabbert and have him ready to start by midseason, the 49ers have a good chance to go from picking in the top ten to the playoffs.
8. Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley, DT Auburn Jr. (6-3, 297)
The Titans will most likely lose Jason Babin, a key reason they had 40 sacks last season, whenever free agency starts. Nick Fairley won't replace his production at end, but when paired with Jason Jones at tackle and Derrick Morgan at end, the Titans should stay in the top 10 in sacks.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska Sr. (6-0, 206)
I'll buy Jerry Jones taking an offensive lineman in the top ten when I see it. Until then it's best player available plus need, which equals Prince Amukamara.
10. Washington Redskins: J.J Watt, DE Wisconsin Jr. (6-5, 290)
Julio Jones is definitely an option here, but taking a wide receiver when you're projected starting defensive end is Vonnie Holiday is the kind of management that the new regime in Washington claims to not practice.
11. Houston Texans: Aldon Smith, OLB Missouri Jr. (6-4, 263)
The Texans would love for Prince Amukamara to fall to them, and there's still a chance they reach for Jimmy Smith, but I think they go rush linebacker. Aldon Smith is a similar type of tall, athletic linebacker to those that new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips drafted in Dallas.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Corey Liuget, Illinois Jr. (6-2, 298)
This may seem high for Liuget, but he's a penetrating defensive tackle who's closer to Nick Fairley in ability than you'd think. Liuget just lacks the elite burst to take down players at a high level after getting the pressure up the middle. Fairley has that burst, which is why he had higher sack totals.
13. Detroit Lions: Tyron Smith, OT USC Jr. (6-5, 307)
I keep hearing that the Lions are okay with Jeff Backus at left tackle. Ok, well, are they alright with Corey Hillard at right tackle? They can't be. Upgrading the protection of Matthew Stafford and a running game ranked 20th in the league in yards per carry. Tyron Smith could play right or left tackle for Detriot depending on what the Lions want to do with Backus.
14. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones, WR Alabama Jr. (6-3, 220)
This is a dream situation for Rams, who have a couple 2 and 3 receivers, but no true number 1. With elite physical ability and competitive drive, Julio Jones has the ability of a top receiver. Jones could go as high as number 4 but could also fall some due to concerns about his hands and a broken foot.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mike Pouncey, OG Florida Sr. (6-5, 303)
Mark Ingram is the trendy pick here and could easily go here, but this is a very deep running back draft for later rounds and Ingram has injury concerns. The Dolphins offense is built around their offensive line but their guards struggled last season. Pouncey could play center down the line, but should be able to start from day one at guard.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue Sr. (6-4, 267)
Signing Aaron Kampman was the right idea last season, because the Jaguars pass rush was dreadful, but he's too injury prone to be counted for a full season. Kerrigan is a high motor pass rusher who brings it every play. He may never be a double digit sack guy, but because of his endless motor he'll make his fair share of impact plays for a defense that desperately needs it.
17. New England Patriots (from Oakland Raiders): Cameron Jordan, DE California Sr. (6-4, 287)
The Patriots signed Marcus Stroud and will have Ty Warren coming back from injuries, but Bill Belichick likes to rotate lineman and will love a high motor, violent pass rusher like Cameron Jordan.
18. San Diego Chargers: Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College Sr. (6-7, 311)
The Chargers offensive line game up 38 sacks last season, which can't continue if they want Phillip Rivers to continue at an elite level. A full season of Marcus McNeil will help, but right tackle is still an issue. Castonzo isn't a perfect fit at right tackle, but he works well with the type of offense San Diego runs.
19. New York Giants: Nate Solder, OT Colorado Sr. (6-8, 319)
The Giants will most likely try to trade down, but if they do pick here, they'll look to target a need down the line. Nate Solder needs some time, which the Giants can give him as they've got some esteblished, if aging, starters at tackle.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Da'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson Jr. (6-3, 280)
This has got to be the floor for Da'Quan Bowers, his knee injury has a lot of teams concerned, but at this point the risk/reward for a team like Tampa Bay that desperately needs a player with his abilities, swings firmly towards reward.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Justin Houston, OLB Georgia Jr. (6-3, 270)
Some scouts think Justin Houston is too big and not fluid enough to play outside linebacker, however he's actually smaller than Tamba Hali and Hali isn't exactly the most fluid in space. He's still one of the best sack artists in the NFL and Houston would compliment him well rushing the passer.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin Sr. (6-7, 314)
If the Colts want to win another Super Bowl with Peyton Manning, they can't keep ignoring the offensive line. Gabe Carimi is a capable pass rusher, but should also help boost the Colts anemic rushing offense.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado Sr. (6-2, 211)
The Eagles would love for one of the top tackle to fall to them so they can help protect Michael Vick, but in this scenario they fill their second biggest need at cornerback. Jimmy Smith is super talented but has character concerns that cause him to drop some.
24. New Orleans Saints: Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa Sr. (6-3, 281)
The Saints really need to boost their defensive line, both pass rushing and stopping the run. Signing Shaun Rogers helps, but they still have a hole at left end. Adrian Clayborn is a perfect fit for that spot and for the Saints defense.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Temple Jr. (6-4, 315)
The Seahawks have a ton of options at this spot but I think defensive tackle is their biggest need. None of the DTs Seattle has on its roster would start for a good team, they have a severe drought of talent at that position.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon Harris, CB Miami Jr. (5-10, 191)
Teams like the Ravens and Steelers don't put a lot of stock in top flight corners, yet it's continually bit them when they face high powered offenses that spread them out. If they want to stay near the top of the league, the Ravens need to upgrade their corners.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Mark Ingram, RB Alabama Jr. (5-9, 215)
This may seem like a weird pick for the Falcons, but Michael Turner has had injury problems the last two years and is almost 30 while Jason Snelling hasn't proved he can be a workhorse and only averaged 3.9 yards per carry last season.
28. New England Patriots: Brooks Reed, OLB Arizona Sr. (6-3, 263)
The Patriots must address their pass rush in their first two picks because what they have now just isn't going to cut it. Brooks Reed is the type of athletic, high motor play the Patriots love.
29. Chicago Bears: Derrek Sherrod, OT Mississippi State Sr. (6-5, 321)
The Bears dreadful offensive lost them a chance to play in the Super Bowl last season and must be an offseason priority. Derrek Sherrod could start at either left or right tackle depending on what they want to do with Frank Omiyale.
30. New York Jets: Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio State Sr. (6-5, 294)
Mike Devito is at backup at best at defensive end for the Jets, so without a corner or pass rusher worth taking they'll take Cameron Heyward, an ideal fit for 3-4 end.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Phil Taylor, DT Baylor Sr. (6-3, 334)
Casey Hampton is still a good player, but at 33 he can't keep it up forever. The Steelers are famous for picking for the future and Phil Taylor fits that mold.
32. Green Bay Packers: Akeem Ayers, LB UCLA Jr. (6-3, 254)
The Packers need a compliment to Clay Matthews at outside linebacker and Akeem Ayers is a perfect fit. He can rush the passer, play the run, and play in coverage which Dom Capers will love because he can disguise what both Matthews and Ayers are doing, a staple of their defense.
This seems to be the consensus pick for Carolina at this point, and to me it makes a lot of sense. If you're a bad, small market team without a lot of hope on the horizon, creating buzz for your team is almost as important as improving on the field. I know Panther fans will scream that they don't want Newton, but you want to bet that his jersey will lead sales for the team? I think so.
2. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama Jr. (6-3, 319)
The Broncos shouldn't even look offense until at least 4 picks in. There's holes all over Denver's defense while their offense is good enough to stand pat on until the later rounds. Two areas of big concern for the Broncos are the trouble they had generating pressure and stopping the run last season. Don't buy the Von Miller talk, he doesn't fit their system and the Broncos want to trade down: you do the math.
3. Buffalo Bills: Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M Sr. (6-3, 246)
I'm not sure if the Bills infatuation is for real, or another smoke screen like with Denver. If the Bills intend on switching back to a 4-3, then I don't think he's worth the pick, but if they're staying with the 3-4, I buy it. Buffalo finished 29th in the league in sacks last season with 27, Miller had 39 in his last two seasons at Texas A&M.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, Georgia Jr. (6-4, 211)
The Bengals have a number of options depending on how things shake out above them, they could go quarterback or defensive line if A.J. Green is gone, or best player available and take Patrick Peterson. Green is most likely at the top of Bengals board and will be the pick if available.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson, CB LSU Jr. (6-1, 219)
This pick is equal parts value and need. Peterson is the most talented player in this draft and the Cardinals could use an upgrade over Greg Toler, who is better suited to play nickle.
6. Cleveland Browns: Robert Quinn, DE North Carolina Jr. (6-4, 265)
Cleveland fans are clamoring for Julio Jones, rightly stating that their wide receiving corp is one of the worst in the league. Well, unfortunately for the Browns, their stable of defensive linemen is comparatively even worse. They've only got one guy on the roster who'd start on a 4 man front for any other team in the league.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri Jr. (6-4, 234)
The 49ers were easily the most talented team in their division last season, yet finished third because of bad quarterback play. If quarterback guru Jim Harbaugh can work some magic on Blaine Gabbert and have him ready to start by midseason, the 49ers have a good chance to go from picking in the top ten to the playoffs.
8. Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley, DT Auburn Jr. (6-3, 297)
The Titans will most likely lose Jason Babin, a key reason they had 40 sacks last season, whenever free agency starts. Nick Fairley won't replace his production at end, but when paired with Jason Jones at tackle and Derrick Morgan at end, the Titans should stay in the top 10 in sacks.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska Sr. (6-0, 206)
I'll buy Jerry Jones taking an offensive lineman in the top ten when I see it. Until then it's best player available plus need, which equals Prince Amukamara.
10. Washington Redskins: J.J Watt, DE Wisconsin Jr. (6-5, 290)
Julio Jones is definitely an option here, but taking a wide receiver when you're projected starting defensive end is Vonnie Holiday is the kind of management that the new regime in Washington claims to not practice.
11. Houston Texans: Aldon Smith, OLB Missouri Jr. (6-4, 263)
The Texans would love for Prince Amukamara to fall to them, and there's still a chance they reach for Jimmy Smith, but I think they go rush linebacker. Aldon Smith is a similar type of tall, athletic linebacker to those that new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips drafted in Dallas.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Corey Liuget, Illinois Jr. (6-2, 298)
This may seem high for Liuget, but he's a penetrating defensive tackle who's closer to Nick Fairley in ability than you'd think. Liuget just lacks the elite burst to take down players at a high level after getting the pressure up the middle. Fairley has that burst, which is why he had higher sack totals.
13. Detroit Lions: Tyron Smith, OT USC Jr. (6-5, 307)
I keep hearing that the Lions are okay with Jeff Backus at left tackle. Ok, well, are they alright with Corey Hillard at right tackle? They can't be. Upgrading the protection of Matthew Stafford and a running game ranked 20th in the league in yards per carry. Tyron Smith could play right or left tackle for Detriot depending on what the Lions want to do with Backus.
14. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones, WR Alabama Jr. (6-3, 220)
This is a dream situation for Rams, who have a couple 2 and 3 receivers, but no true number 1. With elite physical ability and competitive drive, Julio Jones has the ability of a top receiver. Jones could go as high as number 4 but could also fall some due to concerns about his hands and a broken foot.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mike Pouncey, OG Florida Sr. (6-5, 303)
Mark Ingram is the trendy pick here and could easily go here, but this is a very deep running back draft for later rounds and Ingram has injury concerns. The Dolphins offense is built around their offensive line but their guards struggled last season. Pouncey could play center down the line, but should be able to start from day one at guard.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue Sr. (6-4, 267)
Signing Aaron Kampman was the right idea last season, because the Jaguars pass rush was dreadful, but he's too injury prone to be counted for a full season. Kerrigan is a high motor pass rusher who brings it every play. He may never be a double digit sack guy, but because of his endless motor he'll make his fair share of impact plays for a defense that desperately needs it.
17. New England Patriots (from Oakland Raiders): Cameron Jordan, DE California Sr. (6-4, 287)
The Patriots signed Marcus Stroud and will have Ty Warren coming back from injuries, but Bill Belichick likes to rotate lineman and will love a high motor, violent pass rusher like Cameron Jordan.
18. San Diego Chargers: Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College Sr. (6-7, 311)
The Chargers offensive line game up 38 sacks last season, which can't continue if they want Phillip Rivers to continue at an elite level. A full season of Marcus McNeil will help, but right tackle is still an issue. Castonzo isn't a perfect fit at right tackle, but he works well with the type of offense San Diego runs.
19. New York Giants: Nate Solder, OT Colorado Sr. (6-8, 319)
The Giants will most likely try to trade down, but if they do pick here, they'll look to target a need down the line. Nate Solder needs some time, which the Giants can give him as they've got some esteblished, if aging, starters at tackle.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Da'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson Jr. (6-3, 280)
This has got to be the floor for Da'Quan Bowers, his knee injury has a lot of teams concerned, but at this point the risk/reward for a team like Tampa Bay that desperately needs a player with his abilities, swings firmly towards reward.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Justin Houston, OLB Georgia Jr. (6-3, 270)
Some scouts think Justin Houston is too big and not fluid enough to play outside linebacker, however he's actually smaller than Tamba Hali and Hali isn't exactly the most fluid in space. He's still one of the best sack artists in the NFL and Houston would compliment him well rushing the passer.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin Sr. (6-7, 314)
If the Colts want to win another Super Bowl with Peyton Manning, they can't keep ignoring the offensive line. Gabe Carimi is a capable pass rusher, but should also help boost the Colts anemic rushing offense.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado Sr. (6-2, 211)
The Eagles would love for one of the top tackle to fall to them so they can help protect Michael Vick, but in this scenario they fill their second biggest need at cornerback. Jimmy Smith is super talented but has character concerns that cause him to drop some.
24. New Orleans Saints: Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa Sr. (6-3, 281)
The Saints really need to boost their defensive line, both pass rushing and stopping the run. Signing Shaun Rogers helps, but they still have a hole at left end. Adrian Clayborn is a perfect fit for that spot and for the Saints defense.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Temple Jr. (6-4, 315)
The Seahawks have a ton of options at this spot but I think defensive tackle is their biggest need. None of the DTs Seattle has on its roster would start for a good team, they have a severe drought of talent at that position.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon Harris, CB Miami Jr. (5-10, 191)
Teams like the Ravens and Steelers don't put a lot of stock in top flight corners, yet it's continually bit them when they face high powered offenses that spread them out. If they want to stay near the top of the league, the Ravens need to upgrade their corners.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Mark Ingram, RB Alabama Jr. (5-9, 215)
This may seem like a weird pick for the Falcons, but Michael Turner has had injury problems the last two years and is almost 30 while Jason Snelling hasn't proved he can be a workhorse and only averaged 3.9 yards per carry last season.
28. New England Patriots: Brooks Reed, OLB Arizona Sr. (6-3, 263)
The Patriots must address their pass rush in their first two picks because what they have now just isn't going to cut it. Brooks Reed is the type of athletic, high motor play the Patriots love.
29. Chicago Bears: Derrek Sherrod, OT Mississippi State Sr. (6-5, 321)
The Bears dreadful offensive lost them a chance to play in the Super Bowl last season and must be an offseason priority. Derrek Sherrod could start at either left or right tackle depending on what they want to do with Frank Omiyale.
30. New York Jets: Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio State Sr. (6-5, 294)
Mike Devito is at backup at best at defensive end for the Jets, so without a corner or pass rusher worth taking they'll take Cameron Heyward, an ideal fit for 3-4 end.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Phil Taylor, DT Baylor Sr. (6-3, 334)
Casey Hampton is still a good player, but at 33 he can't keep it up forever. The Steelers are famous for picking for the future and Phil Taylor fits that mold.
32. Green Bay Packers: Akeem Ayers, LB UCLA Jr. (6-3, 254)
The Packers need a compliment to Clay Matthews at outside linebacker and Akeem Ayers is a perfect fit. He can rush the passer, play the run, and play in coverage which Dom Capers will love because he can disguise what both Matthews and Ayers are doing, a staple of their defense.
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Top Prospect Profiles: Chris Singleton
Chris Singleton, SF Florida State Jr. (6-9, 225) Age: 21
Strengths: Huge, long armed athletic wing player. Best defender in college basketball with elite lateral quickness, great instincts. Picks up a ton of blocks and steals. Good rebounder, can play both the 3 and 4. Has NBA range on his jumpshot, good mid-range shooter as well. Excellent finisher in transition.
Weaknesses: Not a very skilled offensive player. No post game. Streaky from NBA range. Doesn't show a lot of emotion on the court.
NBA Comparison: Shawn Marion, Mavericks
Draft Projection: Mid-first round
Season Stats: 29.1 mpg, 13.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, 2.0 spg, 1.5 bpg, 43%/67%/37%
Strengths: Huge, long armed athletic wing player. Best defender in college basketball with elite lateral quickness, great instincts. Picks up a ton of blocks and steals. Good rebounder, can play both the 3 and 4. Has NBA range on his jumpshot, good mid-range shooter as well. Excellent finisher in transition.
Weaknesses: Not a very skilled offensive player. No post game. Streaky from NBA range. Doesn't show a lot of emotion on the court.
NBA Comparison: Shawn Marion, Mavericks
Draft Projection: Mid-first round
Season Stats: 29.1 mpg, 13.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, 2.0 spg, 1.5 bpg, 43%/67%/37%
Top Prospect Profiles: Jordan Hamilton
Jordan Hamilton, SF Texas So. (6-7, 220) Age: 20
Strengths: Long and athletic. Prototype wing player can score with the best of them. Deep range on his jumpshot. Can also score in the post and off the drive. Moves well without the ball, very dangerous coming off screens. See the floor well for a wing. Excellent rebounder for his position. Good motor. Good on ball defender.
Weaknesses: Can get a little shot happy and play selfishly, though he improved dramatically in that respect his Sophomore season. Tends to take tougher shots than necessary. Can be a little streaky.
NBA Comparison: Danny Granger, Pacers
Draft Projection: Lottery to mid-first round
Season Stats: 32.2 mpg, 18.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.1 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.6 bpg, 44%/78%/38% (FG/FT/3P)
Strengths: Long and athletic. Prototype wing player can score with the best of them. Deep range on his jumpshot. Can also score in the post and off the drive. Moves well without the ball, very dangerous coming off screens. See the floor well for a wing. Excellent rebounder for his position. Good motor. Good on ball defender.
Weaknesses: Can get a little shot happy and play selfishly, though he improved dramatically in that respect his Sophomore season. Tends to take tougher shots than necessary. Can be a little streaky.
NBA Comparison: Danny Granger, Pacers
Draft Projection: Lottery to mid-first round
Season Stats: 32.2 mpg, 18.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.1 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.6 bpg, 44%/78%/38% (FG/FT/3P)
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