Breakout NBA players

Atlantic Division: Avery Bradley, Celtics

Bradley is still recovering from shoulder surgery and probably won't be back until mid-December, but when he does he should be inserted right into the starting lineup. Bradley played limited minutes, but in the last month of the season he played 33 minutes and averaged 15 points a game on 52% shooting while playing some of the most tenacious defense in the league. Like seriously, this guy is already one of the best wing defenders in the league, he'll provides relentless ball pressure and is very hard to beat of the dribble with fast hands to pick up steals. If Bradley, with his motor and cutting ability can get Boston 2 or 3 easy shots a game and he continues to improve as a shooter, especially from the corner, and as ball handler, he'll be one of the better 2 guards in the league, his defense is that good.

Central Division: Tristan Thompson, Cavaliers
The 4 overall pick in the draft had an up and down season, combining powerful dunks and big blocks with bricked free throws and poor turnovers. Thompson was a tremendous rebounder (especially offensively, where he averaged 3.1 a game) and played some pretty solid defense, while drawing fouls in bunches (almost 5 FTA a game) and converting close to the basket. All of those things should continue, but he needs to improve on his shooting and post play. Thompson shot poorly from the outside and even worse from the line (55%). If Thompson can improve that to 65%-70% while taking smarter, closer shots and waiting to be set up by teammates instead of force action, he could become a solid starter due to his other abilities.

Southeast: Nikola Vucevic, Magic

The Magic didn't get much for Dwight Howard, but one of the young pieces they got back has a chance to become a decent NBA starter, and since he's a center, that means Nikola Vucevic will be a valuable NBA player. With Dwight Howard gone and the only other true center on the Magic roster being a second round pick, Nikola Vucevic should get a lot more playing time than he did in Philadelphia. If Vucevic gets more playing time, he really needs only to become more consistent, polish out his game, and go into the post more. Vucevic is a very good rebounder and can hit an outside jumper, with even 3-point range, but he needs to spend more time in the post. Being on an Orlando team with a bunch of other jump shooters will hopefully cause Vucevic to go into the post more, which will open up the rest of his game and increase his efficiency as a shooter.

Pacific Division: Goran Dragic, Suns
Goran Dragic perhaps had his breakout season last year, but it was only for the last month of the season, and given Dragic's up-and-down nature, he'll have to do it consistently for a full season to take the next step. The reason Dragic had success in Houston last season was that played in a system that suited him: a system that gave him the ball, played up-tempo, and let him make all the plays. Luckily for Dragic, he's now in Phoenix which plays the same type of system, heavy on pick and roll and surrounding Dragic with shooters. The key to consistency for him is to cut down on the turnovers and continue to shoot well from 3. If Dragic can keep players from going under screens on the pick and roll, he should be able to pick opponents apart in a Steve Nash-lite type of way.

Southwest Division: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs

My original choice for the Southwest Division breakout player was Chandler Parsons, but given the fact that the Rockets just added another ballhandler/scorer in James Harden, I don't think Parsons will get enough usage to be the player he can be given the opportunity. Kawhi Leonard is another likely breakout candidate for two reasons: talent and opportunity. First, the talent: Leonard is a big, strong wing player with long arms, huge hands, and explosive athleticism, because of that he's a very good rebounder and finisher at the rim who can overpower defenders. Where Leonard needs to improve is as a shooter, where he shot 38% from 3, but only 29% on long 2s; it's one thing to hit open corner 3s like Leonard did in the Spurs system, but quite another to be a go-to scorer. As for opportunity, Leonard should have a bigger role in the San Antonio offense as the older Spurs stars rest more and hold back for the playoffs.

Northwest Division: Alec Burks, Jazz
For some unknown reason, the Jazz continued to play the Zombiefied corpse of Raja Bell despite having a young talent like Alec Burks on the roster, who produced whenever given the chance. Hopefully, the Jazz have learned from the mistake and will give Burks the Sixth Man role and plenty of playing time. Burks is dangerous weapon because he uses his quickness, explosiveness, and ball-handling  to get to the rim, finish, and draw a ton of fouls, that won't go away and he should be a league leader in fouls drawn on a per minute basis. However, like all young players Burks needs to improve as a shooter both from 3 and in-between, but given that his stroke looks good and he shot well from the line as both a rookie and in college, there's hope that it will just take a little bit of work before the shots start falling.

College Basketball Award Predictions

Freshman of the Year: Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
Any prediction surrounding Shabazz Muhammad comes with the caveat "if eligible." If Muhammad misses 10 -15 games, he's still probably the Freshman of the year because he's just that good and will provide the kind of stat sheet stuffing and highlight plays that lead to awards and national recognition. Obviously, if he's out for the whole year then the race is more wide open. Isaiah Austin and Nerlens Noel will both be dominant defensive players who'll average 2-3 blocks and 9-10 rebounds a game, but I'll give the edge to Austin because he's a better offensive player.

Defensive Player of the Year: Gougi Dieng, Lousville
Jeff Withey of Kansas is also a strong contender, but Dieng will likely play more minutes, grab more rebounds, and play on an overall better defensive team. Dieng will likely block 3+ shots a game and provide tough interior defense against both driving guards and post up players. Nerlens Noel is another possibility, but it's hard to predict a Freshman to win an award like this.

Coach of the Year: Mark Few, Gonzaga
Gonzaga is a preseason top 20 team with a really good chance to finish in the top 10, which means Mark Few will be in the running for Coach of the Year. There will probably be an overachieving team that comes out of nowhere and has a great season, and that coach will win the award. As of now, I like Gonzaga to be a top team because they have very winnable non-conference games against Clemson, West Virginia, Kansas State, and Washington State and have a great chance to knock off Baylor at home.

Player of the Year: Cody Zeller, Indiana

I'm not as sure about this one as some other people, Cody Zeller is absolutely one of the best, if not the best player in the country, but he plays on such a loaded team that I'm not sure that can compete with some of the gaudy numbers Doug McDermott or even Shabazz Muhammad (if eligible...) will put up. Zeller will have to average 17+ points and 7-8+ rebounds (up from 15 and 6) while still shooting great percentages and provide a defensive presence to a perviously average defensive team. If Zeller does those things, which are easily possible, and Indiana lives up to expectations, he'll be player of the year no matter how many points Doug McDermott averages.

First Team All-American
G: Isaiah Canaan, Murray State
G: Trey Burke, Michigan
F: Doug McDermott, Creighton
F: Mike Moser, UNLV
C: Cody Zeller, Indiana

Second Team All-American
G: Phil Pressey, Missouri
G: Pierre Jackson, Baylor
F: Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
F: Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State
C: Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota

Third Team All-American
G: Michael Snaer, Florida State
G: Jamaal Franklin, San Deigo State
F: Otto Porter, Georgetown
F: Tony Mitchell, North Texas
C: Gorgui Dieng, Louisville

All-Freshman First Team
G: Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State
G: Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA
F: Kyle Anderson, UCLA
F: Isaiah Austin, Baylor
C: Nerlens Noel, Kentucky

All-Freshman Second Team
G: Rasheed Sulaimon, Duke
G: Archie Goodwin, Kentucky
F: Alex Poythres, Kentucky
F: DaJuan Coleman, Syracuse
C: Steven Adams, Pittsburgh

All-Freshman Third Team
G: Gary Harris, Michigan State
G: Glen Robinson III, Michigan
F: Grant Jerrett, Arizona
F: Anthony Bennett, UNLV
C: Kaleb Tarczewski, Arizona

NBA Awards Predictions

Most Improved Player: Paul George, Indiana

This is always the most difficult award to predict because it usually just has to do with playing time more than actual improvement. Paul George is a starter and played plenty of minutes last season, but Darren Collison and Leandro Barbosa are both gone, so George will be leaned on to score more, that plus a slight uptick in rebounds, steals, and blocks (plus some highlight reel dunks) will make George a favorite for this award. Evan Turner, Goran Dragic, and Klay Thompson are all also possibilities.

Coach of the Year: Eric Spoelstra, Miami
Despite all the criticism that he's received, Eric Spoelstra has improved every year as a coach and is now one of the best in the game. Obviously, it's easy when you've got the talent that he's got, but just throwing together talent doesn't equal success (see: the Knicks), and Spoelstra has managed this team to perfection while also leading the way for the new small-ball era. The Heat will likely dominate the regular season even if injuries crop up and this award usually goes to the winning-est coach. Mike Brown and Doc Rivers also have good shots at winning.

Sixth Man of the Year: Jason Terry, Boston
I had James Harden as the winner of this award a couple days ago, but now that he's been traded to Houston and will start, he won't be eligible. Jason Terry is a solid choice however, he'll be counted for a lot of offense off the bench and should average 15+ points a game. Manu Ginobili, and Ray Allen/Rashard Lewis are all possibilities.

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Davis, New Orleans
This award is a closer race than some might think, with Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Jonas Valanciunas both strong challengers. Given the hype around Anthony Davis, it's hard for me to imagine that he won't win it, since there will be a strong focus on him, meaning that what he does best, namely defense, won't go unnoticed. Plus he's likely to put up some gaudy rebound/shot-blocking numbers while scoring at a decent clip and providing highlights galore.

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers
Forgotten in the Dwightmare is just how amazing of a player Howard is. He was barely trying last year and still led the league in rebounding, blocked 2.1 shots a game, and finished third in DPOY voting and was First-Team All Defense. Now that he's motivated and angry for not winning DPOY for a third straight year? Forget about it. Tyson Chandler, Serge Ibaka, and LeBron James all have shots to win, but Howard is the clear favorite.

Most Valuable Player: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
LeBron will likely be the player who deserves this the most at the end of the year, but a combination of voter fatigue and Kevin Durant actually improving will lead to Durant getting the award. If Durant continues to improve both his passing and his defense, while sustaining his incredible scoring/shooting performances, he'd be the clear MVP in a LeBron-less universe. Chris Paul and Dwight Howard both have chance to win along with LeBron of course.

All NBA-First Team
G: Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
G: Dwyane Wade, Miami
F: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
F: LeBron James, Miami Heat
C: Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers

All-NBA Second Team
G: Rajon Rondo, Boston
G: Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City
F: Josh Smith, Atlanta
F: Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers
C: Tyson Chandler, New York

All-NBA Third Team
G: Deron Williams, Brooklyn
G: Tony Parker, San Antonio
G: Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers
F: Kevin Love, Minnesota
F: Kevin Garnett, Boston

All-Defensive First Team
G: Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
G: Tony Allen, Memphis
F: Andre Igoudala, Denver
F: LeBron James, Miami
C: Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers


All-Defensive Second Team
G: Ricky Rubio, Minnesota
G: Avery Bradley, Boston
F: Josh Smith, Atlanta
F: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City
C: Tyson Chandler, New York

All-Rookie First Team
G: Damian Lillard, Portland
G: Bradley Beal, Washington
F: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte
F: Anthony Davis, New Orleans
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto

All-Rookie Second Team
G: Jeremy Lamb, Houston
G: Harrison Barnes, Golden State
F: Terrence Jones, Houston
F: Andrew Nicholson, Orlando
C: Andre Drummond, Detroit