R.J. Hunter vs. Baylor
After two strong years at Georgia State and an impressive showing at the Nike Skils Camp, R.J. Hunter was considered by some to be a potential lottery pick. However, after struggling with the bread-and butter of his game this season (shooting), Hunter is looking more like a bubble first-rounder. Even if Georgia State loses their first round game against Baylor, a big performance by Hunter could help his standing in the eyes of teams picking in the late lottery. The Bears will easily be the best defense that Hunter has faced this year (he did score 21 vs Iowa State earlier this year), and their brand of zone defense can be particularly frustrating for perimeter players, with opponents hitting only 30% of their 3s against them (16th best in the country) as well as closing off driving lanes. The zone will also take away another of his weapons, the pick-and-roll, but if Hunter gets it going from behind the arc, it will be a boon to both his team and his draft standing, because shooting is where his money will be made.
Myles Turner vs. Butler
Texas has underachieved based on their talent so far this year, but they are very, very talented. Turner is best of the bunch, a potential top 10 pick who at 6-11 has both perimeter skills and can protect the rim. One of Turner's biggest warts is he doesn't always play in the paint offensively like he potentially can. Butler has no player taller than 6-9 (the slim Kameron Woods) so Turner will have a massive size advantage he should be able to take advantage of in the post and on the glass. What makes this matchup extra intriguing is Butler's physical style of defense, despite the fact they are undersized, the Bulldogs will still compete. Will Turner use his size advantage or continue to float around the perimeter on offense? The answer will go a long way to determine Texas level of success.
Kevon Looney vs. Marcus Kennedy and Yanick Moreira
Much to the chagrin of many, UCLA made it into the tournament and weren't even the last team in. However, what may be a loss for common sense is a gain for fans, who get to see potential lottery pick Kevon Looney again, and in a tough match-up against a deep and athletic SMU frontcourt to boot. Looney is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and he has rapidly developing perimeter skills, but right now he is skinny and not a particularly physical player. The Mustangs two best big men, Kennedy and Moreira will challenge Looney inside on both ends, though neither are big time NBA prospects, they are both more physically developed than Looney and can play in the paint on both ends. Kennedy in particular is a load, listed at 6-9, 245 and relatively skilled. If SMU starts attacking Looney through Kennedy it could be a long night for UCLA and another question about his readiness for the next level.
D'Angelo Russell vs. Havoc
Despite being a highly regarded prospect, Russell still flew under the radar until his play brought the spotlight and the accolades, to the point that he is a legitimate contender to be a top 3 overall pick and an sure-fire All-American. Despite his herculean efforts, Ohio State is still just a middling team who will face a serious challange in lower seeded VCU. The Ram's havoc defense is well known at this point, a meat-grinder of non-stop pressure that can make even the most seasoned players look foolish at times. Russell is fortunate enough to share a backcourt with another ball-handler, Shannon Scott, which will certainly help the Buckeyes break the press. However, Russell is a high usage player and one of the best in the country with the ball in his hands, so there it will be quite a bit. It is worth noting that VCU's best defender, Briante Webber (and his 3.9 steals per game), is not going to be playing in the game. I doubt any performance does much to his draft standing, but it will certainly affect Ohio State's chances of advancing. Two years ago we were saying similar things about Trey Burke against the VCU and the Rams lost that game by 25, but Burke had 7 turnovers, so this all may be a moot point.
Jarrell Martin and Jordan Mickey vs. NC State
The duo of Martin and Mickey make up one of the best frontcourts in college basketball, between the two of them they average 32.4 points, 19 rebounds, and 4.3 blocks a game, shooting 51% from the floor. They are LSU's two best players and if the Tigers are going to make any noise, it will fall on their shoulders. Mickey, who has been dealing with a shoulder injury, is the better all around player, but Martin is the one NBA teams are interested in because he is two inches than the 6-8 Mickey and has better perimeter skills. A strong tournament by the pair could vault Martin into the mid-first round and convince NBA decision makers than Mickey could be an outlier in the vein of Paul Millsap, a successful 6-8 power forward. NC State has some big bodies in the middle, but none of the quality of LSU. Last season Tennessee fell two points shy of reaching the Elite 8 in large part because they had bigs inside that opponents could not handle, LSU could be that team this year.
Fred VanVleet, Ron Baker, and Tekele Cotton vs. Yogi Farrell and James Blackmon Jr.
Wichita State/Indiana is intriguing for off-court reasons, but on the court is where the most exciting action will be, particularly between the guards. Each of the Shockers three main backcourt players offer something different, VanVleet is the steady point guard and leader, while Baker is a knockdown shooter, and Cotton is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country. Going up against them are Indiana's star backcourt duo, both can shoot and make plays off the dribble and containing them will be key to Wichita States chances. Who guards who and when should be fascinating, and if the game is close, the crunchtime back and forths between these guards should be very fun to watch. Guards usually carry the day in March, so whichever backcourt plays better will likely be the ones that advance.
Montrezl Harrell vs. Mamadou Ndiaye
Undersized power forwards face an uphill battle to succeed in the NBA, and more often than not they fail, however some succeed and even can become All-Stars. Montrezl Harrell will certainly be hoping to fall into the second group, and he has long arms and tremendous athletic gifts on his side, though he is likely only 6-8 and may be shorter. One of the reason smaller power forwards tend to struggle is that they are going up against bigger, longer players on a nightly basis and have a disadvantage when it comes to scoring over those opponents. At 7-6, with an absurd 8-1 wingspan, big Mamadou Ndiaye is the biggest test that Harrell could possibly have against size and length. He should be able to score in transition, but can Harrell score at the rim in the half court versus Ndiaye? That is one of the more interesting matchups in the first round this year.
Kris Dunn vs. Anyone
Under-the-radar most of the season, Kris Dunn is finally starting to get his recognition as one of the best players in college basketball and a legitimate NBA prospect. No matter who Providence is playing, Dunn is appointment viewing because of his exciting, all-around game. He can shoot, penetrate, and pass, everything you want from a point guard and does it with quickness and style. Do yourself a favor and watch Dunn if you haven't before, you may be watching one of the next fast risers as a prospect and also just a darn fun basketball player.
