Sunday, July 7, 2013

Free Agency + Trade Reviews

New Orleans receives Jeff Withey and Tyreke Evans, who signs for 4 years, $44 Million
Sacramento receives Greivis Vasquez and two second round picks
Portland receives Robin Lopez and Terrel Harris
This trade works out for all sides, with each team acquiring talent that fits their needs. For New Orleans, they get the best player in the deal in Evans, who finally got his game back on track last season. Evans is still a dynamic scorer who can play three positions, but he also needs to learn to play well with others. As a super-sixth man, Evans fits nicely on this roster and the five man group of Evans, Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, and Anthony Davis has a lot of versatility and potential. The money is a lot, but New Orleans had to overpay a little so Sacramento didn't match, and they are paying a little for potential as well, but if Evans reverts to his year 2 and 3 performance, this deal could look ugly down the line. Not to be overlooked in this deal is Jeff Withey, who is a better rim protector than Lopez and should be able to basically replace his production at a cheaper price tag, though in a lesser role. The Kings, who needed to move on from Evans anyway, did a good job getting something out of the deal. Not only that, Sacramento got a player perfect for their team and one who should help them rebuild their culture. Greivis Vasquez is a pass first point guard that plays with tremendous passion and leadership, exactly the kind of player Sacramento needs to get the ball to DeMarcus Cousins and Ben McLemore. Also, he is in the last year of his deal, so if things don't work out, there is no long term investment. Also, the second round picks shouldn't be under-estimated in value, it's the best way to get ultra-cheap talent. For Portland, they were able to fill arguably their biggest need by landing a solid, if unspectacular starting center in Robin Lopez, who still has two years left on his deal. Lopez is important because it gives Meyers Leonard more time to develop without the pressure of being a starting player and playing a lot of minutes. All in all, this deal makes every team better, with only New Orleans taking on any kind of a risk.

Charlotte signs Al Jefferson for 3 years, $41 Million
This is one of the weirder signings so far in free agency, but in a lot of ways it makes sense. Charlotte has been unwatchable for quite a while and continue to get worse. If they keep on this path, stinking and taking lottery picks that may or may not pan put, what few fans that still go to games will be fed up. Charlotte needs to put a semi-watchable team on the floor or else they'll risk losing fans and maybe the franchise. However, I'm not sure overpaying Al Jefferson was the way to go. Jefferson is the best low-post scorer in the league, something Charlotte could certainly use, but they're giving a ton of money to a player that isn't a very good defender and who's upside makes you slightly better but not enough sniff the playoffs. Charlotte risks moving into the territory of missing out on top draft picks, but not making the playoffs, somewhere you don't want to be. Jefferson actually fits pretty well on Charlotte however, especially of Cody Zeller can become a perimeter 4 to space the floor for Jefferson in the low post. Bismack Biyombo, as limited offensively as he is, should help some with Jefferson's defensive issues.

Utah receives Richard Jefferson, Andris Biedrins, Brandon Rush, a 2014 and 2017 1st Round Picks and several 2nd round picks
Golden State receives Kevin Murphy
This is purely a salary dump for Golden State, to clear room so they can sign Andre Igoudala. Brandon Rush was a big part of the Warriors 2011-2012 season, but was out all of last season with a knee injury and didn't figure into their long term plans. The Jazz need another 2 guard, and if Rush is healthy will be a solid compliment to Alec Burks, particularly if he keeps up his 41% career 3-point shooting. Biedrins and Jefferson have no on court value and I doubt that either gets any playing time in Utah. All three total $24 Million in expiring contracts, which is the incentive for Utah taking them on. These contracts can be used as trade chips, or kept so Utah can have a ton of cap space next summer. However, this also means that Utah is pretty much punting on this season, building around the core of Derrick Favors, Trey Burke, Gordon Heyward, Enes Kanter and their two draft picks in next years loaded draft, one of which may be very high.

Golden State signs Andre Iguodala for 4 years, $48 Million
After clearing up all that cap space, the Warriors signed Andre Iguodala with the new space. Iguodala is a good fit on this team, as he won't have to be primary offensive player, but can focus on what he does best and really just be a third or fourth scoring option. Iguodala is an elite perimeter defender, capable of guard 1s, 2s, and 3s while also rebounding well for his position. Offensively, Iguodala is an elite finisher, especially in transition, who also has the ability to play point forward do to his ball handling and exceptional court vision. I love the idea of Iguodala with elite shooters in Klay Thompson and Steph Curry because he will be able to create shots for them. When he is on the floor, Iguodala should immediately upgrade the Warriors defense, and if used properly, their offense as well. The biggest issue with this signing is that it means neither Jarrett Jack or Carl Landry will be brought back, leaving them with essential a bench of second year forwards Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes, along with rookie guard Nemanja Nedovic. Andrew Bogut and Curry, two very injury prone players, are without any kind of proven backup. Filling out a solid bench, while also finding a backup point guard and center that can step in and start when needed will be challenging but necessary. One option is trading David Lee for pieces and moving Harrison Barnes into the starting lineup at power forward.

Detroit signs Josh Smith for 4 years, $56 Million
Though it will recieve a lot of criticism, the deal works if it is Detroit's intention is to bring Andre Drummond off the bench, starting Smith at power forward and playing a shooter like Kyle Singler at small forward. That would give them a deadly three man rotation in the frontcourt, and while they couldn't close games with those three on the court, Drummond's free throw problems make it difficult for him to play then regardless. If that's the case, this is still an over pay, but not the worst move in the world. If they intend to play significant minutes of Smith, Drummond, and Greg Monroe on the floor however, I really question it. Playing those three together will cause serious spacing issues and would force Smith, who's biggest problem is he is a bad jump shooter who loves to shoot, into taking jumpers. The risk on this deal isn't as big as when they signed Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon, who ended up being unplayable due to on court deficiencies because Smith is still a good player and should remain on for the who length of the contract. The risk is that the pieces won't fit and Detroit won't get the most out of a significant investment.

Milwaukee signs O.J. Mayo for 3 years, $24 Million
The Bucks are continuing their frustrating trend of being stuck in the middle of bottoming out to re-build and being any kind of serious contender. In the past 5 years, Milwaukee has won 38, 31, 35, 46, and 34 games and actually done a good job drafting, but never getting a real franchise changer because they always pick in the late lottery/mid-first round. Signing O.J. Mayo seems to be putting them into a holding pattern once again. I actually really like Mayo as a player, provided he is put in the right role, but what is the upside here? Mayo isn't going to make them go enough to contend, but will likely help them be too good to get a top pick. Mayo is a better player than Monta Ellis and it isn't close, so Bucks fans can take solace in that. I could be wrong about all this, but the Bucks have been throwing money at players like Mayo, Drew Gooden, John Salmons, and Ersan Ilyasova without much to show for it.

Milwaukee signs Zaza Pachulia for 3 years, $16 Millions
I really hope there is a trade coming, or else this deal makes so little sense. Zaza Pachulia is a solid backup center, but so are Gustavo Ayon and Ekpe Udoh, and for much cheaper. Even if both are traded, this is a lot of money to pay an offensively limited 29 year-old that plays the same position as your best player. I'd say that I don't know what the Bucks are doing, but they have shown a consistent trend of questionable moves and mediocre results.

Atlanta signs Paul Millsap for 2 years, $19 Million
Probably the best signing this offseason, the Hawks get one of the most underrated players in the league for a good price that doesn't lock them in too deep. Paul Millsap and Al Horford will comprise a very skilled and tough pair of bigs who can both score inside and out, rebound, and play above average defense. Millsap will only be 30 when this deal expires, so he's got another big contract in him. I like the direction the Hawks are going, and am a believer in their new coaching staff. My concern with this team is that they struggled last season to draw fouls, fourth worst in the league, and Millsap will only help some with that. They also could use another wing and have the cap space to go get one, I like Andrei Kirilenko here, or Corey Brewer on a lesser deal.

Atlanta signs DeMarre Carroll for 2 years, $5 Million
Another solid move by Atlanta here, getting a good backup wing who plays very hard for a cheap deal. DeMarre Carroll isn't particularly skilled offensively, but he's got a great motor and is a good rebounder and defender. Carroll isn't going to light up the scoreboard or even get much recognition, but his drive and hustle is a good addition to any team. Carroll has overcome liver disease and fought his way into the NBA, and that kind of drive is inspiring to teammates, not to mention the on court benefits of his defense and energy.

Atlanta re-signs Kyle Korver for 4 years, $24 Million
This may seem like a lot of money and years to give to a 32 year-old three point specialist, but this deal isn't as risky as it appears. First of all, Korver is a valuable player who is one of the best shooters in the league but was misused last season, a mistake that the new Hawks coaching staff is unlikely to make. While his one-on-one defense isn't the best, Korver has made himself into a good team defender as well as a good passer. Atlanta's roster still has a lot of remodeling left to be done, but if they want to build around Al Horford and Paul Millsap, shooting will be crucial. The reason this deal isn't as risky as it appears is that Korver is likely to retain all of his skills for most, if not all of his deal. Shooting, passing, and team defense don't rely as much on athleticism, which Korver lacks already anyways, so even at 36 he should be an effective, if slightly over-payed, shooting specialist.

Dallas signs Jose Calderon for 4 years, $29 Million
I don't think this is what Mark Cuban had in mind when he blew up a Championship team with hopes of landing a superstar in subsequent years. After whiffing on both Deron Williams and Dwight Howard, the Mavericks are left with Dirk Nowitzki and a bunch of ageing parts. What makes this signing so weird is that Jose Calderon is just another ageing piece. The Mavs have two options: trade Nowitzki and bottom out in a very good draft year with a big free agent class next or go after the rest of this free agent class, the likes of Andrew Bynum, Monta Ellis, Corey Brewer, Jarrett Jack, or try to get a restricted free agent like Nikola Pekovic. This signing seems to point in the direction of the latter, as the Calderon alone isn't enough to make Dallas a contender, but also unnecessary for a team attempting to blow it up and rebuild. With Calderon turning 32 before the season, this deal is risky for Dallas, but like Korver in Atlanta, Calderon should be able to keep around the same level of performance. Calderon isn't a good perpetrator or defensive player anyways, so it's not like he'll lose that with age. What he does bring to the table is tremendous shooting, passing, and an extremely low amount of turnovers. Calderon and Nowitzki should be deadly running pick and pop, and on the court this deal makes sense, just not for the overall direction of the franchise.

Dallas signs Devin Harris for 3 years, $9 Million
Dallas appears to be attempting to fill out their roster to at least be competitive this season. Devin Harris, once a promising star, has really fallen off in recent years and isn't a starting caliber player anymore. I do like his fit as a slashing two guard off the bench, and should be a good change of pace to the steady Jose Calderon, who isn't much of a penetrator. I think Dallas should blow it up, but if they want to go in another direction, this is a solid value signing.

New York re-signs J.R. Smith for 4 years, $24.7 Million
After flirting with the Bucks and others, J.R. Smith the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, re-signed with the Knicks. I don't hate J.R. Smith as a player, nor do I think this is an unreasonable contract for what Smith provides. However, I hate his fit on the Knicks and I don't like the direction they are going with this roster. Giving prominent minutes to two ISO-heavy offensive players who don't play defense isn't how you win in today's NBA. New York is making themselves into a middle of the pack Eastern Conference team that maybe gets past the first round in the playoffs, but will be exposed by the top teams in the league on both ends of the floor. 

Cleveland signs Jarrett Jack for 4 years, $25 Million
This is an interesting deal because it is pretty big money for a team to give player who is best with the ball in his hands and plays the same position as the team's best player, who also is best with the ball in hands. I understand the rational behind the signing though, putting Jack in that super sixth man role who can backup either guard spots, on both ends of the floor. Also, and perhaps most importantly, it gives Cleveland a starting caliber point guard who can step in when the often injured Kyrie Irving has to miss time, much the same way Golden State used Jack to backup Steph Curry. Misguided or not, Cleveland wants to make a run at the playoffs, something which Jack will certainly help with. One other concern, Jack will be 30 at the start of the season, so this deal could go south towards the end.

Sacramento signs Carl Landry for 4 years, $26 Million
With a new lease on life in the city of Sacramento as well as finally having new ownership and management, the Kings are ready to change their image and turn the franchise around. Drafting Ben McLemore and Ray McCallum, then trading for Greivis Vasquez was the first step, now they have brought in an underrated forward who has played for the organization before. Carl Landry is a hard working, high quality big man who is comfortable coming off the bench or starting. When ever he comes on the floor, Landry brings efficient offense, rebounding, toughness, and leadership, all things that the Kings can use. It might take a couple years to establish a new culture in Sacramento, but this is a good start.

New York re-sign Pablo Prigioni for 3 years, $1.5 Million
As much as I dislike the Smith deal, I like this one for New York. When you put two ball-stoppers like Smith and Carmelo on the floor, it's important to have ball movers on the floor, which is exactly what Prigioni provides. He is already 36 years old, so I doubt he plays out the length of this contract, while the threat of decline is minimal due to the style of Prigioni's game and his current age. The other think Prigioni brings to the table is three point shooting, when you can actually get him to shoot, he shot 40% from 3. This will be important for floor spacing, especially since Steve Novak was traded.

Houston re-signs Francisco Garcia for 2 years, $2.6 Million 
There was some market for Francisco Garcia, so the Rockets did well to him bring back. Garcia is a veteran, do-it-all forward with some good shooting ability, which will be crucial with Dwight Howard on the floor. What might have appealed most to Rockets about Garcia was his performance in the playoffs last season, where he defended Kevin Durant better than any other Rocket and shot a blistering 46% from 3. This signing was important because Houston was unable to re-sign Carlos Delfino, so Garcia will serve as the primary backup wing, barring another move by Houston.

Indiana signs Chris Copeland for 2 years, $6.2 Million
The Pacers get one of the best, sneaky good signings of the off season by bringing in Chris Copeland to continue to bolster the bench. The bench for Indiana last season was abysmal, but now with the addition of Copeland, C.J. Watson, and the return of Danny Granger, this has become a strength. Copeland is a terrific offensive player who can play either forward position and really light it up, averaging a 8.7 points in just 15.4 minutes a game. I imagine he'll serve as David West's primary backup, bringing an added dimension of 3-point shooting to the team when he is one the floor: Copeland shot 42% from 3 last season.

New Orleans re-signs Al-Farouq Aminu for 1 year, $3.74 Million
I am suprised that Al-Farouq Aminu, who is coming off his best season as a pro and is only 22 years old, didn't have more of a market this offseason. As long as you know Aminu's limits as a player, he can be very useful. Aminu is not a skilled offensive player, he struggles shooting and dribbling, but is a very good finisher, particularly in transition. Where Aminu adds value is on defense and the glass, he is huge for a wing player and with terrific length and athleticism while learning more and more how to play NBA defense. With all the creators New Orleans has on the perimeter, plus Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson inside, Aminu won't have much pressure to produce offensively, other than what is created for him.

Portland signs Dorell Wright for 2 years, $6 Million
Like the Pacers, the Blazers continue to bolster their bench, which was a significant weakness for them last season. The Thunder also were reported to be after Dorell Wright, so I am surprised Portland were able to get him for such a good value deal. Wright is a classic 3-and-D wing player who's value is based on his shooting and defense, both of which are above average. Wright doesn't do a whole lot else, and isn't super efficient scoring in between the arc and the rim, but as a back up who can spread the floor and has the size at 6-9 to defend bigger wings, Wright has value.

Los Angeles Clippers re-signs Matt Barnes for 3 years, $11 Million
The Clippers have done a great job finding shooters and wing players, but the still need to find some bigs and grit players. Matt Barnes is a combo forward who may end up being Blake Griffin's primary backup. Barnes is a decent shooter, but where he provides his real value is defensively, on the boards, and working off the ball. He is a good defender who can guard 3s and more 4s, while offensively he's one of the best cutters in the league. The Clippers are putting together a solid, deep roster for a title run, however they still need a couple more bigs.

Los Angeles Clippers sign Darren Collison for 2 years, $2.8 Million
What a great deal for the Clippers, reuniting Darren Collison with former teammate Chris Paul and giving L.A. their backup. Collison had his best season coming off the bench as a change-of-pace guard, which seems to be his best role in the NBA. With the second year a player option, this is basically a rehab deal for Collison to improve his stock after a disastrous season in Dallas, in which he was benched for Mike James and lost the trust of his coach. If Collison does well, he can opt out and seek a better deal, if not he will opt in and give it another shot.

Philadelphia receives Royce White and the rights to Furkan Aldemir
Houston receives future draft considerations
In another attempt to clear mor cap space, the Rockets have parted ways with the very talented and unique Royce White. White, drafted 16th overall last draft by Houston, has yet to play a minute of NBA basketball, but is better known for his public clashes with Rocket's management. White is a huge point forward with tremendous court vision and passing skills. He can also score in the high and low post and rebound. Philadelphia is a second, and perhaps last chance for White, who needs to prove he's valuable enough as an NBA player for teams to deal with the other issues. Furkan Aldemir may never play in the NBA but is noteworthy because of the high level of motor and intensity he plays with as an undersized power forward.

San Antonio signs Marco Belinelli for 2 years, $5.6 Million
Any time the Spurs sign a player it requires a second look due to their success rate with free agents and Greg Popovich's ability to get the most out of players. Marco Belinelli is up and down, seemingly from game to game, where he'll be on fire one night and missing wide open shots the next. This is a low risk deal for the Spurs, as Belinelli will be their third strong shooting guard. However the upside is that he plays well enough for Manu Ginobili to get plenty of rest during the regular season, in preperation for the playoffs.

Cleveland signs Earl Clark for 2 years, $9 Million
This is basically a one year "show me" deal, as the second year is a team option. Earl Clark had a lot of offensive potential coming out of college, but hasn't ever really been able to put it all together on that end of the floor. However, as a 6-10, 225 with long arms he has the ability to be a very good wing defender, which will presumably be the role Cleveland has envisioned for him. If he delivers on that end or improves his offense, they can pick up the option, if not, they won't have lost much.

Thursday, July 4, 2013

An Early Look at the 2014 Draft

1. Andrew Wiggins, SF Kansas Fr. (6-8, 197)
It's hard to write more about Andrew Wiggins that hasn't already been said over and over again. Yes, he is one of th top prospects in a long time; yes, he is a freak athlete with considerable skill; yes, he is a potential franchise changer; no he's not as good as LeBron or Kevin Durant. Wiggins will have a ton of attention this whole season, and how he deals with the hype will be important, because the talent is undeniable.

2. Julius Randle, PF Kentucky Fr. (6-9, 248)
Julius Randle puts the "power" in power forward, an elite physical specimen with strength and explosiveness. Randle isn't just dominating smaller players, he has low post skills as well as a very good face the basket game from which he can drive or shoot. Randle will be the best player on Kentucky next year, now whether the team functions that way will remain to be seen.

3. Aaron Gordon, PF Arizona Fr. (6-9, 212)
A walking highlight reel, Aaron Gordon will get many, many comparisons to Blake Griffin for his high flying dunks this season at Arizona, and like Griffin, Gordon is isn't just a dunker. Gordon plays all out, all the time and is a terrific rebounder and defensive player. He also has a high basketball IQ, is a good passer, and the kind of player who teammates and coaches love. His skills are developing, and he wants to play small forward at Arizona, but I think power forward is his best position.

4. Jabari Parker, SF Duke Fr. (6-8, 241)
While he isn't on quite the same level as Wiggins, Jabari Parker is still one of the best wing prospects to come along in the last couple years. Parker can do it all on the floor, shoot from 3, post up, drive to the basket, score in the mid-range, rebound, pass, and handle the ball. Parker also has a very high basketball IQ and just knows how to play the game. The issue is he isn't an elite athlete, though his 7-0 wingspan helps some in that regard.

5. Joel Embiid, C Kansas Fr. (7-0, 240)
As big of a wow physical specimen as you can imagine, Joel Embiid is huge, and has a massive 7-5 wingspan. What's even more scary is Embiid is still growing into his body and could be absolutely massive in a couple years. Embiid dominates defensively and on the glass exactly how you'd expect someone of his size to do, while offensively he has an emerging skill-set as both a low and high post player.

6. Marcus Smart, PG Oklahoma State So. (6-4, 225)
Marcus Smart defies "box score scouting" more so than any other prospect in this draft. His shooting percentages aren't great, nor is the AST/TO, but Smart is simply the kind of player who makes winning plays. A big power guard, Smart's game needs refinement, particularly his point guard skills and shooting, but the defense, motor, leadership, and intangibles he brings to the table are impressive. However Smart needs to improve on his Freshman season, or teams could sour on him.

7. Dante Exum, PG Australia (6-6, 188)
The rawest of this cluster of elite point guard prospects, Dante Exum also the most physically gifted by far. Huge at 6-6, Exum is super quick and athletic with a great handle. He can get by almost any defender already and is a creative, acrobatic finisher. Exum is still learning how to be a point guard, but the ability is there and his jumper needs work, but the sky is the limit for this 17 year old. Whether he stays in Australia or goes to college in America is yet to be determined.

8. Andrew Harrison, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-5, 207)
Andrew Harrison has a huge opportunity to either put himself in top pick consideration or really hurt his stock, depending on how Kentucky performs next season. Harrison will have the keys to one of the best collections of talent ever assembled in college basketball, if they gel, make a championship run like the 2011-12 team, and Harrison plays well, he'll be the top point guard taken, if they fall apart like the 2012-13, he'll take a ton of the blame. 

9. Montrezl Harrell, PF Louisville So. (6-8, 235)
After performing very well in a limited role last season, Montrezl Harrell will step into the starting lineup and get big minutes this year. Harrell has an NBA body with room to grow to go with elite length and explosiveness. Harrell is a terrific rebounder and defensive player who also has an emerging offensive skill set as a post scorer. Harrell has the physical tools, motor, and demeanor to have a dominant season in an expanded role. 

10. James Young, G/F Kentucky Fr. (6-7, 215)
Of all the players on this loaded Kentucky team, James Young may be the most important because he's should be the main wing scorer and creator. He certainly has the talent to excel in that role: Young is a big wing with athleticism and the ability to score from anywhere on the floor. The biggest concern for Young is that there may be too many mouths to feed in Kentucky and young gets lost in shuffle with no defined role.

11. Chris Walker, SF Florida Fr. (6-9, 206)
In a draft with Wiggins, Randle, Gordon, and Harrell, all elite athletes, Chris Walker stands right up next to the athletically. He can fly up and down the floor with sprinters speed and absolutely explode at the basket for dunks, rebounds, and blocks. Walker needs some polish offensively, particularly his ball handling and jumper, but the tools are off the charts. There is also some question as to whether he's a 3 or 4.

12. Gary Harris, SG Michigan State So. (6-4, 210)
One of the best kept secrets in college basketball last season, Gary Harris was one of the best players in the country when healthy. He is a good, strong athlete and a great shooter with deep range. Harris is also a good ball handler and a terrific defender. Shouldering more of a role this season should get him more recognition and a chance at the lottery.

13. Glenn Robinson III, G/F Michigan So. (6-7, 211)
After a promising Freshman season at Michigan, Glenn Robinson III decided to return to school where he'll be the focus of the Wolverine offense. Robinson III is a physically developed and athletic wing who converted 2 pointers at a very high rate (65%) but needs to work on his three point shooting (32%) and ball handling. If he continues his upward trajectory, Robinson should establish himself as a star and potential lottery pick.

14. Mario Hezonja, SG Croatia (6-6, 200)
"Super Mario" is a very tough player to peg. He is supremely talented, a big, explosive scoring guard when score from anywhere on the floor. Add to that a high basketball IQ and the fact he's only 18 and you have one of the best European prospects in a long time. However, he also struggles to play team basketball sometimes, coming off as selfish. If Hezonja learns to play a team game, he could go top 5.

15. Dario Saric, SF Croatia (6-10, 225)
Dario Saric pulled out of the 2013 draft, where he likely would have been a top 10 pick, which was risky considering his stock might drop considerably if he doesn't show enough improvement. Saric is a point forward with very good ball handling skills plus outstanding court vison, passing ability, and feel for the game. He is limited defensively however, and a poor shooter. These are the areas he must improve in going forward.

16. Jarnell Stokes, PF Tennessee Jr. (6-9, 256)
One of my favorite prospects in this draft, Jarnell Stokes is a warrior in the paint, a low post player who plays with physicality and strength. He also has great length and tremendous hands. What makes him stand out though is he is very quick for his size and has a developing jumper. Stokes isn't perfect, he plays below the rim and may struggle against length but his combination of post game, rebounding, and the fact that he'll be a 20 year-old junior on draft night is intruiging to say the least.

17. Jerami Grant, SF Syracuse So. (6-9, 215)
As far as potential goes, it's hard to top Jerami Grant. Grant is a freak athlete with a huge 7-3+ wingspan and an amazing motor. He is a potential elite defender who can block shots and crturnovers. Offensively, he needs polish but the tools are there to be a good shooter and ball handler. After a limited role last season, Grant is expected to start and play major minutes for Syracuse.

18. Dakari Johnson, C Kentucky Fr. (6-11, 265)
The least heralded of the big prospects being brought in by Kentucky, Dakari Johnson may very well the biggest sleeper in this draft. He is a basically a bigger, less polished Jared Sullinger: a below the rim scorer, low post scorer with long arms and great hands. He is a terrific rebounder and has high basketball IQ. Defense is a question, as is now he deals with athletes, but talent is there to be a lottery pick.

19. Mitch McGary, PF Michigan So. (6-10, 265)
Mitch McGary had a great run to close the season, but he should have come out after his Freshman season and been a top 10 pick, because it's unlikely he reaches those heights again. This is a much better draft, and McGary's offense relied a ton on Trey Burke. Also he will be a 22 year old Sophomore at the time of the next draft. He still tough and has a great motor, but I think he missed a big opportunity.

20. Willie Cauley-Stein, C Kentucky So. (7-0, 240)
Willie Cauley-Stein had the unenviable task of replacing Nerlens Noel and struggled in the role. He is long, athletic, and a potentially excellent defensive player due to his physicality and tools. However, his offense leave a lot to be desired, limited mainly to dunks and short jumpers. I could see a Tyson Chandler-like career for him, but why is he so low in these rankings? I think Dakari Johnson steals the show at center.

21. San Dekker, SF Wisconsin So. (6-8, 220)
It's been a long time since a Badgers player has had the potential lottery pick on their team, but Sam Dekker is just that. He is very skilled, a good ball handler and terrific shooter, but what sets him apart is his athleticis and explosiveness. He has a high IQ and was very productive in a limited role last season, which will expand greatly this season.

22. Adreian Payne, PF Michigan State Sr. (6-10, 240)
Adreian Payne took a big risk coming back for his senior season, because he gave up being a potential lottery pick last season and could fall out of the first round if he doesn't improve, as he'll be 23 at the next draft. He's physically gifted and fairly skilled, particularly as a shooter, yet has always left something to be desired on the court. If he dominates next season, a late lottery pick is possible.

23. Alex Poythess, SF Kentucky So. (6-8, 230)
Poythess had flashes of greatness as a Freshman, but overall showed a lack of assertiveness and skill that showed he was more athlete (and wheat an athlete!) than player at this point. If Poythress can buy into being a power forward full time, ala Terrence Jones, I like his future much more than as a 3. Also, Poythress won't have nearly as much pressure on next year's loaded Kentucky team. 

24. Isaiah Austin, PF Baylor So. (7-1, 220)
After struggling to find a role outside of spotting up, Isaiah Austin started to find his groove towards the end of the season and could have a big breakout next season statistically. However, his stock will depend more on whether he can bulk up and improve his shooting. If he can do those things, in addition to all the rest of his versatile game, and he'll be lottery bound.

25. Semaj Christon, PG Xavier So. (6-3, 190)
If you like super quick and athletic point guards who can play a little crazy, look no further than Semaj Christon. If Christon can cut down his turnovers and improve his three point shooting, the sky is the limit, because he is very talented on both ends of the floor. A move to a higher profile in the new Big East will also help boost his stock.

26. Aaron Harrison, SG Kentucky Fr. (6-5, 210)
Aaron Harrison is the twin brother of potential lottery pick, Andrew Harrison, but isn't as highly regarded simply because he is a shooting guard and not a point like his brother. Still, he has a lot of natural talent as an athletic scorer and shooter. Harrison's role at Kentucky this season will likely be as more of a spot up shooter, so his stock my not sky-rocket.

27. Rasheed Sulaimon, SG Duke So. (6-4, 185)
Rasheed Sulaimon will likely be the best bench player in the country this season unless Rodney Hood's injury is more serious than expected. Sulaimon is a very good defender and shooter with a sky high basketball IQ, terrific motor and quick first step. He is a little undersized, but as a rock solid role player who helps his team win in a number of ways, you can't beat Sulaimon.

28. Kasey Hill, PG Florida Fr. (6-1, 175)
The key to Kasey Hill's draft stock is his jumper. If he can consistently knock down shots when teams go under screens, he could be a top ten pick because he's got the rest. Hill is slightly undersized for a point guard, but he is pure point guard that is very quick, an excellent penetrator, and pick-and-roll player who can find teammates and finish at the rim. Hill's playing time will depend alot on Scottie Wilbekin, whowas recently suspended indefinitely.

29. Keith Frazier, SG SMU Fr. (6-6, 190)
If you're looking for an off the radar Freshman who could put up huge numbers, Keith Frazier could be your guy. He is stepping onto a mediocre SMU team where he'll be the top recruit they've had in recent memory. Frazier is an amazing shooter who can hit shots from way beyond NBA range. He is also a solid ball-handler and finisher. He could put up 17-20 points a game on a bad team, ala Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

30. Noah Vonleh, PF Indiana Fr. (6-10, 240)
Another one of the big Freshman sleepers as far as NBA prospects go, Noah Vonleh is in line for a lot of playing time next season and has the ability to be a very good player right away. He has plus size and very long arms, as well as above-average athleticism. Skill-wise, Vonleh is a versatile, hogh motor, do it all player. He has a good handle, developing jumpshot, can pass, rebound, and block shots. He's sort of the power forward version of Otto Porter.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Early Free Agent Signings + Bledsoe Trade

Mike Dunleavy signs with the Bulls for 2 years, $6 Million
This is just one of those perfect fits that comes around every free agency, a veteran on a cheap deal going to a good team and fitting exactly into what they want to do. The Bulls needed a shooter, an upgrade over Marco Belinelli and they got a very good one in Dunleavy, who has become underrated over the years because of injuries and playing for bad teams. However, he's a 6-9 guard/forward who shot 43% from 3 last season and is a much improved defensive player who will only get better in the Bulls system. His shooting especially will be great for the Bulls' spacing and he is a good rebounder and passer. You can't beat the price either. The Bulls now Dunleavy, Luol Deng, Jimmy Butler, and Tony Snell at the wing position, a diverse and deep group of players.

Nazr Mohammed re-signs with the Bulls for one year at the veteran minimum
This was bound to happen, Tom Thibodeau likes Mohammed and the feeling is mutual. Mohammed is cheap, knows the system, and is well respected by his teammates. However, if the Bulls view him as anything more than a third center, I disagree with this signing. Joakim Noah is injury prone, and having a backup for him that can also step in as a starter is crucial. Mohammed, who will turn 36 in September is simply too limited to be anything but an emergency backup and veteran mentor. I would expect the Bulls to make a run at another, younger center.

Chase Budinger re-signs with the Timberwolves for 3 years, $16 Million
When the Wolves traded for Chase Budinger last season, it made a ton of sense, as Budinger was exactly the kind of shooter they needed, and he has experience playing in Rick Adelman's system. However, this is a lot of money for a player who only played 23 games last season due to an knee injury, and shot 41% from the field and only 32% from 3, which isn't going to cut it. If he's fully healthy and can regain the shooting form of his 11-12 season, this is a great deal and exactly what Minnesota needs, but if not the Wolves could be in line for another painful season.

Kevin Martin signs with the Timberwolves for 4 years, $28 Million
Speaking of players familiar with Rick Adelman's system, the Timberwolves fix their issues at shooting guard and from 3-point range with an extremely efficient scoring guard who shot 43% from 3 last season. Martin doesn't draw fouls like he used to, but is still one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA. The Timberwolves got nothing from their shooting guards last season and were historically bad from deep, so Martin will certain help a Minnesota team that, if healthy, is snapping up to be a juggernautoffensively. Defensively however, they could struggle quite a bit, something Martin will definitely contribute to. Still, with all this offensive firepower, and pieces that fit very well together, the Wolves could make a run at the playoffs.

Eric Maynor signs with the Wizards 2 years, $2 Million
Given the price of this deal, it's hard to poke holes in it other than as a solid, if unspectacular, move by the Wizards. Maynor will be purely a backup for John Wall, but he may have to step in as a starter if Wall goes down with bumps and bruises, which seems likely based on history. Maynor is an ideal backup, a smart, pass first point guard who can hit a three and competes defensively. The problem is that the Wizards are building their offense around Wall's ability to penetrate and find shooters, something that Maynor may not be able to due simply because he isn't quick enough. Obviously, the Wizards can adjust on the fly, but stylistically it's not a perfect fit. However, if Wall stays healthy I like it.

Martell Webster re-signs with the Wizards for 4 years, $22 Million
This is the Wizards full mid-level exception (with year 4 only partially guaranteed) which may seem like a lot for Webster, but whether this deal works out will depend fully on whether or not Webster's health and improvements last season were real or not. Webster has always been a solid shooter but last season he took it to another level, hitting on 42% of his 3s, including 49% from the corners, which is perfect for playing alongside John Wall. He also performed well on defense and can be counted on the play hard every night. Also, at only 26, it's not impossible that he is simply entering his peak and this isn't a fluke. If all this goes right, it's a good deal for the Wizards. However, if Webster's injuries, particularly his back, crop up again or the shooting regresses to the 34% he shot in 11-12, then the Wizards gave significant money and years to a middling NBA backup.

C.J. Watson signs with the Pacers on a two-deal
The Pacers didn't ask much of D.J. Augustin last season, basically to play defense and shoot 3s, he was average at the later and perhaps the worst in the league at the former. Also, anytime a players 35% 3-point shooting is higher than their overall field goal percentage, it may be time to find an upgrade. C.J. Watson is an a good shooter, hovering around 40% the last three years and average defensively while not providing much else, but that is such a massive upgrade over Augustin, that is should help the Pacers woeful bench immensely. Next step for the Pacers: a backup power forward.

David West re-signs with the Pacers for 4 years, $36 Million
This was a no-brainer for Indiana, bringing back the steady and dependable David West, who is really the cog that makes their offense work. West is turning 33 this year, so normally a 4 year deal would be questionable, but West's game isn't based on athleticism and should continue to age nicely. West is just an overall great player, he may not get much credit, but he can score inside, shoot, rebound, pass, and is an above average defender. He might not keep up this pace though out the whole of the deal, but should provide value thought the length on the contract.

Tiago Splitter re-signs with the Spurs for 4 years, $36 Million
With memories of Splitter's poor performance against the Heat fresh on their minds, many may see this as a bog overpay. However, this is just about right for Splitter and the Spurs for a couple of reasons. First, Splitter may have had a bad finals, but he was crucial to defending Marc Gasol in the Western Conference Finals, and if Dwight Howard ends up in the Western Conference, he'll be useful defending him as well. Also, Splitter's presence in the regular season allows the Spurs to spell Tim Duncan more so than a lesser player. And it's not like Splitter is a bad player either, he posted a PER of 18.71 last season, and perhaps most importantly he has improved each of his three NBA seasons. Splitter isn't sexy, but he's a valuable player, particularly to San Antonio.

Andray Blatche re-signs with the Nets for 2 years  $2.8 Million
This is really a one year deal, as the second year is a player option that Blatche will almost certainly decline. Still it's a good value for the Nets, who needed a backup for Kevin Garnett to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Blatche is a knucklehead, but actually played pretty well in a limited role last season, posting a 21.98 PER and averaging an impressive 10.3 points in just 19 minutes a game. If he can keep that production up, he'll far out earn his pay. Plus the hilarity of Blatche and Garnett as teammates will be worth $2.8 million by itself.

Clippers receive Jared Dudley and J.J. Redick, who signs a 4 year, $27 Million contract
Suns receive Eric Bledsoe and Caron Butler 
Bucks receive two second round picks
While giving up a young talent may have been hard for the Clippers, it was absolutely the right move to trade him and they got a great deal out of it. J.J. Redick is a perfect fit for this team and should slide right into the starting shooting guard slot, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him closing out games over Jamal Crawford. Redick is obviously the main get here, but don't sleep on Dudley, who should start at small forward and is the ultimate glue guy. He does a little bit over everything offensively, is a solid defensive player, and is a 41% career 3-point shooter. Now what was a weakness last year for the Clippers, is now a strength, especially when you add to that rookie Reggie Bullock, who was one of the best shooters in this last draft. For the Suns, Bledsoe is the main piece in this deal, with Butler and his expiring deal a trade chip, not a building block. While I understand the desire to trade for Bledsoe, he also plays the same position as the Suns best player, Goran Dragic, so it's more like one step forward of a move instead of a big leap in the Suns rebuild. It will be interesting to see what the Suns intend to do with Dragic, if they want to play him alongside Bledsoe or trade for a piece at a different position. I would go with the latter, but that means they need to find a trade partner who is willing to pay for a point guard. As for the Bucks, they did well to get something for Redick, but they never should have traded for him in the first place, giving up a promising young piece in Tobias Harris for a couple month rental of Redick so they could get swept in the playoffs. The Bucks are a mess now and should go full rebuild around their young big men and forwards, and stay as far away from Brandon Jennings and Monte Ellis as they can.

Monday, July 1, 2013

Robinson, Bargnani Trades

Portland receives: Thomas Robinson
Houston receives: Two 2nd Round picks, and the rights to Kostas Papanikolau and Marko Todorovic

This trade works for both teams, it gives the Rockets the cap space to pursue Dwight Howard while Portland gets a player who was picked 5th overall in last years draft. Thomas Robinson was drafted into an awful situation last year in Sacramento, before being traded to a Houston team that had already established a rotation and didn't play. This is a fresh start for Robinson, who is a talented player and he should get plenty of playing time alongside LaMarcus Aldridge in the Portland frontcourt. Robinson isn't perfect and needs to stop taking jumpers, but the kind of rebounding, toughness, and explosion he can supply is a not easily found. Robinson's high energy demeanor will fit nicely next to Aldridge's more laid back game. For Houston, they were log-jammed at power forward anyways and Robinson was always viewed as more of a trade asset than a part of the team. The picks and draft rights aren't the point of this trade, which was made purely to clear cap space for a run at Howard and other big names.

New York receives: Andrea Bargnani
Toronto receives: Steve Novak, Marcus Camby, Quentin Richardson, 2016 First Round pick, 2014 and 2017 second round picks

This is sort of a baffling move by the Knicks, not because I think Andrea Bargnani is a terrible player, and it actually saves them money, but because it's the worst possible fit for New York. Bargnani is a versatile offensive player who at his peak can shoot the ball all the way out to the 3-point line, or put the ball on the deck. However that player has been missing for the last season and a half as his confidence has dwindled and injuries have slowed him down. Even if Bargnani regains his stroke and confidence and becomes the 20 point scorer he once was, his defense and rebounding is so bad it won't matter on this team. At 7-foot, 250+ pounds, Bargnani has average 30.3 minutes a game so far in his career, yet just 4.8 rebounds, which is not good. Add to that his matador defense and it's not a good fit on a team that expects to play a couple of accomplished toreadors in their own right, Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire. If the Knicks play those three together, it might be the worst defensive front court in the last decade at least. The Knicks also sent away draft picks, something they're already in short supply of. For Toronto, this was a no brainer to get ride of Bargnani, who has become loathed by fans. They save money, get draft picks, and aquire Novak, who is a shooter only, but the best Toronto has seen since Jason Kapono. Toronto lacks a true knockdown shooter, so I could see him getting some run at both forward spots, which may help make up for the lack of shooting when Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan share the floor together.

Draft Review: Miami Heat

Second Round
James Ennis, SF Long Beach State (50)
The Heat only had one pick, but they made the most of it by taking a prospect perfect for their system. James Ennis doesn't have big upside, but he can do three things well: spot up, finish, and defend, which fits very well in Miami. If the Heat decide to she'd salary in the form of Mike Miller, Ennis could step in as a replacement.

Projected Rotation
PG: Mario Chalmers/Norris Cole
SG: Dwyane Wade/Ray Allen
SF: LeBron James/Mike Miller
PF: Shane Battier/Rashard Lewis
C: Chris Bosh/Udonis Haslem

Draft Review: Oklahoma City Thunder

First Round
Steven Adams, C Pittsburgh (12)
It's important to remember that the Thunder weren't likely to get anyone who can help them short term, so while I don't love Steven Adams as a prospect, I understand the idea of taking a project when can contribute down the line. Adams has a long way to go offensively and even catching the ball, but he also has the potential to be an Omer Asik-type defensive player with long arms, strength, and physical play. If he can become that, this pick pays off regardless of his offense.

Andre Roberson, PF Colorado (26)
I love this pick, though somewhat of a reach value-wise, Andre Roberson is the kind of player I would want on my team. He is a long, athletic, super-high motor forward who rebounds like crazy. He isn't quite the freak in that respect that Kenneth Faried is, though Roberson is a better defensive player who can guard on the perimeter, block shots, and disrupt passing lanes. Put him on the floor and just let him wreck havoc defensively and not worry about his offense.

Second Round
Alex Abrines, SG Spain (32)
This seemed like a pretty obvious way for Oklahoma City to go with one of their picks, take the most talented overseas player on the board, stash him overseas for a while reap the reward down the line if he turns into anything. This saves a roster spot and money, but still invests in the future. Alex Abrines is an athletic shooter who projects as a Rudy Fernadez-type. 

Grant Jerrett, PF Arizona (40)
This is another pick I like for the Thunder, a no risk high reward selection. Grant Jerrett is a very good shooter at 6-10, 232 with a ton of upside. He was a top recruit in high school who didn't get much playing time at Arizona, and when he did was asked to just spot up. If he continues to develop as a shooter and improves the post game he showed in high school, Jerrett could be a very solid player for the Thunder and the kind of big they lack.

Projected Rotation
PG: Russell Westbrook/Reggie Jackson
SG: Thabo Sefolosha/Jeremy Lamb
SF: Kevin Durant/DeAndre Liggins
PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison
C: Kendrick Perkins/Hasheem Thabeet

Draft Review: San Antonio Spurs

First Round
Livio Jean-Charles, PF France (28)
This is such a typical Spurs pick, investing in a young, talented player who might take a little while to return on the investment, but could be more productive than any of the other players drafted around him. Livio Jean-Charles lit up the Hoop Summit and showed a skill-set that projects as a perfect role player forward. Jean-Charles is long, athletic, and a good rebounder who can also step out and hit a jumper. He needs to get stronger and more polished, but is also only 19 years old.

Second Round
Deshaun Thomas, SF Ohio State (58)
My head says that Deshaun Thomas isn't an NBA player, but my gut says that if anyone can turn him into one it is the Spurs. Thomas can certainly score, and do it from all over the floor, but his defense is just atrocious. It's not just that Thomas is undersized and not a great athlete, he just doesn't try at all on that end of the floor. The Spurs are great at hiding weaknesses but Thomas' defense may be too much.

Projected Rotation
PG: Tony Parker/Cory Joseph
SG: Danny Green/Gary Neal (RFA)
SF: Kawhi Leonard
PF: Tim Duncan/Matt Bonner
C: Tiago Splitter/Boris Diaw

Draft Review: Denver Nuggets

Second Round
Erick Green, G Virginia Tech (46)
The Nuggets traded out of the first round, presumably to save money, and ended up with a talented prospect in the second round none the less. Erick Green is a poor-man's C.J. McCollom, a quick scoring combo guard who can score from all over the floor. I actually like his potential to play point guard full time over McCollom because he is much less turnover prone. With all the changes in Denver, in the front office, coaching, and on the roster, there are a lot of unknowns in Denver, so Green's role could depend on what happens.

Joffrey Lauvergne, PF France (55)
Another prospect to be stashed overseas, Joffrey Lauvergne is athletic and mobile for a player his size, though he needs to add a lot of strength. Lauvergne also has a pretty high skill level with the potential to be a stretch-4 down the line. He needs to get tougher as a rebounder and defender and will turn 22 this year, but there's a chance he turns into something eventually.

Projected Rotation
PG: Ty Lawson/Andre Miller
SG: Evan Fournier/Wilson Chandler
SF: Danilo Gallinari/Jordan Hamilton
PF: Kenneth Faried/Anthony Randolph
C: JaVale McGee/Timofey Mozgov

Draft Review: Memphis Grizzlies

Second Round
Jamaal Franklin, SG San Diego State (41)
The Grizzlies didn't have a first round pick, but got one anyway in Jamaal Franklin, how fell way to far for someone who is as talented as he is. Franklin can do everything on the floor, except for shooting, and he is an elite athlete with a terrific motor. He projects as a great perimeter defender who can slash to the rim, rebound, and make plays in transition. If the Grizzlies move on from Tony Allen, I could see Franklin stepping in from day 1 and starting at shooting guard.

Janis Timma, SF Latvia (60)
This is clearly a draft-and-stash pick for Memphis, and though Janis Timma will likely never play in the NBA, he has some upside due to his athleticism. He is a decent ball-handler who can get to the rim, but really needs to work on his shooting. Timma is 21 and will probably play in Europe for the rest of his career, but if he breaks out, the Grizzlies have his rights.

Projected Rotation
PG: Mike Conley Jr/Tony Wroten Jr
SG: Jamaal Franklin/Jarryd Bayless
SF: Tayshaun Prince/Quincy Pondexter
PF: Zach Randolph/Ed Davis
C: Marc Gasol/Kosta Koufos

Draft Review: Los Angeles Clippers

First Round
Reggie Bullock, G/F North Carolina (25)
This is one of my favorite picks in the first round, it's a perfect marriage of need and talent for the Clippers. Bullock is an ideal role player and exactly what the doctor ordered for this team. He is a really good shooter, one of the best in the draft, and projects as a very good defender at both small forward and shooting guard, two positions that Clippers currently lack depth at. He also has a high basketball IQ and a good motor. Bullock might not have a huge upside, but he does two things at a high level, which is more than enough to stick in the NBA.

Projected Rotation
PG: Chris Paul/ Eric Bledsoe
SG: Willie Green/Jamal Crawford
SF: Caron Butler/Reggie Bullock
PF: Blake Griffin/???
C: DeAndre Jordan/???

Draft Review: New York Knicks

First Round
Tim Hardaway Jr, SG Michigan (24)
I'm not sure what to think of this pick, in one sense I like that the Knicks addressing their guard position, and hopefully moving on from J.R. Smith, but I'm not sure I love the choice of player. Tim Hardaway Jr. is just an underwhelming prospect as a far as am concerned, an average athlete, shooter, and ball-handler. I think Reggie Bullock, Jamaal Franklin, Allen Crabbe, and Glen Rice all would have been better choices.

Projected Rotation
PG: Raymond Felton/Pablo Prigioni (RFA)
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr/???
SF: Iman Shumpert/Anthony
PF: Carmelo Anthony/Amar'e Stoudmire
C: Tyson Chandler/Andrea Bargnani

Draft Review: Indiana Pacers

First Round
Solomon Hill, SF Arizona (23)
Yet again, the Pacers draft a college Senior. Though luckily this time they took one who was actual
productive in college, unlike Miles Plumlee. Solomon Hill can do a lot of things, but I'm not sure anything at an NBA level. I more question the position they drafted rather than the player, small forward is log-jammed in Indiana and Hill isn't versatile enough to play power forward or shooting guard. I think a backup point guard like Isaiah Canaan or forward like Tony Mitchell would have made much more sense.

Projected rotation
PG: George Hill/C.J. Watson
SG: Paul George/Lance Stephenson
SF: Danny Granger/Gerald Green
PF: David West (UFA)/Tyler Hansbrough
C: Roy Hibbert/Ian Mahinmi

Draft Review: Brooklyn Nets

First Round
Mason Plumlee, C Duke (22)
The Nets needed a backup big man who'll run the floor and rebound, so they did very well getting Plumlee at this point in the draft, who will do both of those things. Plumlee is a big and an explosive vertical athlete who is very good on the boards and finishing around the rim. He isn't a polished offensive player and may struggle to defend on the perimeter, but as a backup big man, the Nets could  do a lot worse.

Traded For Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Jason Terry
The Nets go all in on this next season or two, trading a bunch of spare parts, and more importantly three future first round picks. In the short term, the Nets should be a much improved team, especially if Jason Kidd can get the guards to play any defense. I'm the long term however, there could be some rough years after the roster ages out and the Nets, who owe most of their first round picks for the next 5 years, don't have any way to supplement with young talent.

Projected Rotation
PG: Deron Williams/Tyshawn Taylor
SG: Joe Johnson/Jason Terry
SF: Paul Pierce/Johnson
PF: Kevin Garnett/Reggie Evans
C: Brook Lopez/Mason Plumlee