Oklahoma City Thunder Draft Review

Current Roster
PG: Russell Westbrook/Semaj Christon
SG: Victor Oladipo/Alex Abrines/Terrence Ferguson
SF: Doug McDermott/Kyle Singler/Josh Huestis
PF: Jerami Grant/Domantas Sabonis
C: Steven Adams/Enes Kanter

2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
C Taj Gibson
C Nick Collison
G Norris Cole

Restricted
F Andre Roberson

Who They Drafted
1-21 Terrence Ferguson, SG Adelaide
The Thunder used their first round pick on Terrence Ferguson, an American player who skipped college to play overseas for one season. Ferguson is exactly the kind of player the Thunder needed last year and didn't have, as their roster was loaded with players that could either defend or shoot, but not both. Though he is young and will need time to develop, Ferguson could become one of the better 3-and-D players in the NBA because he already has a nice shooting stroke (though it needs a little polishing) and has the athleticism and most importantly the mindset to be a very good defender of perimeter players. He's also a fast, explosive leaper that should be tremendous in transition with Russell Westbrook. His off the dribble game is what is keeping him from being more than a role player but if he can improve his handle and shot creation ability, his upside would be higher.

What They Need Going Forward
Unless they trade, the Thunder don't have much money to make many moves, however they'll have to do whatever they can to get a real backup point guard that can at least keep the ship afloat while Westbrook is on the bench. And no, Norris Cole is not that player. There are also questions about their power forward spot, where they either have unproven players or more combo-y guys. A proven, above-average PF, even if it is just bringing back Taj Gibson, would go a long way to improving their team.

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2015-16 NBA Season Preview: Team Predictions

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division

1. Toronto Raptors (1)

2. Boston Celtics (9)

3. New York Knicks (10)

4. Brooklyn Nets (14)

5. Philadelphia 76ers (15)

Why: Picking the Celtics to miss the playoffs was one of the hardest decisions this year, but I think they are definitively worse than the top 7 in the East and the Pistons are my pick, no matter how much of a long-shot, to have a surprise turnaround season. I actually think the Celtics are more likely to make the playoffs, but predictions are much more fun when you don't go with the most likely outcomes. The Raptors as the top overall team is a bet that improved defense and a weak division will lead to a lot of regular season wins.

Central Division

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)

2. Chicago Bulls (5)

3. Milwaukee Bucks (7)

4. Detroit Pistons (8)

5. Indiana Pacers (13)

Why: At this point, despite being (when healthy) the best team in the conference, the Cavs injuries are reaching absurd levels and it is getting harder to believe in any of their top 3 players to stay healthy, not to mention the rest of their roster and the Tristan Thompson affair. The Bulls will have some growing pains and be better than the fifth best team after the All-Star break. I love Indiana's coaching and think Paul George is a top 15 player in the NBA, but their frontcourt is such a mess otherwise and their defense could be a mess.

Southeast Division

1. Miami Heat (3)

2. Washington Wizards (4)

3. Atlanta Hawks (6)

4. Charlotte Hornets (11)

5. Orlando Magic (12)

Why: The Heat I think will pace themselves this season and try to be fully healthy come playoff time, but their starting lineup is so talented and for the first time in a while, they may have some legitimate depth. Atlanta is going to fall off, but not as much as some think, finishing sixth is more a vote of confidence in the improvements the teams above them made. If not for the Michael Kidd-Gilchrist injury Charlotte would have been my 8-seed, as is I think they will struggle to defend consistently.

Western Conference

Pacific

1. Golden State Warriors (2)

2. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

3. Phoenix Suns (8)

4. Sacramento Kings (12)

5. Los Angeles Lakers (13)

Why: The Clippers will still win a ton of games and could easily have the best record in the West, but I really doubt we'll see another 82-game season from Chris Paul. The Warriors are still the best team in the NBA, but injuries are more likely to bite them this season and perhaps a bit of a championship hangover, just enough to knock them from the top overall seed. 

Southwest

1. Houston Rockets (3)

2. San Antonio Spurs (4)

3. Memphis Grizzlies (6)

4. New Orleans Pelicans (9)

5. Dallas Mavericks (10)

Why: Both the Pelicans and Mavericks have the potential to make the playoffs, but injuries are already a huge problem and don't seem likely to go away. The Spurs are still probably going to play more for the postseason and not worry too much about seeding as long as they get home court advantage.

Northwest

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (1)

2. Utah Jazz (7)

3. Denver Nuggets (11)

4. Portland Trailblazers (14)

5. Minnesota Timberwolves (15)

Why: The Thunder are locked and loaded for a massive season with a healthy Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka and more depth across the board. Mediocre or worse teams I think are just going to be blown off the floor by this team. The Blazers might make this prediction look bad, but I don't like how their team fits together and could really be a mess on both ends.

Playoffs

Eastern Conference First Round

Raptors over Pistons

Cavaliers over Hawks

Heat over Bucks

Wizards over Bulls

Why: Chalk.

 

Western Conference First Round

Thunder over Suns

Warriors over Jazz

Rockets over Grizzlies

Spurs over Clippers

Why: Chalk again, but this year home court again makes the difference in Spurs/Clippers but with the Spurs advancing this time.

Eastern Conference Second Round

Wizards over Raptors

Heat over Cavaliers

Why: Let me be clear, I think the Cavaliers are still the favorite to reach the Finals out of the East, but predictions are more fun when you take chances and there is a distinctly non-zero chance the Heat are definitively more healthy than the Cavaliers come playoff time. Paul Pierce is gone, but the Wizards are still a bad match-up for Toronto and seem to have their number. 

Western Conference Second Round

Thunder over Spurs

Warriors over Rockets

Why: The Thunder when healthy have gotten the better of San Antonio, same with the Warriors and Rockets. Both series would be very close though.

Eastern Conference Finals

Heat over Wizards

Why: The Heat could make this look terrible if injuries really crop up but I believe in their coaching and talent.

Western Conference Finals

Thunder over Warriors

Why: This series, if it happens, would easily be my most anticipated event of the season. The Warriors are probably a better team, but I think home court and Durant would make the difference if things play out this way.

The Finals

Thunder over Heat

Why: A rematch of the 2012 Finals that lacks some bite sans LeBron, however it would still be a really fun series that ultimately has the Thunder finally winning the championship.

Again, these predictions are the most likely outcomes but they are a mix of probability, gut instinct, and some wildness just for fun.

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2015 Draft Review: Oklahoma City Thunder

2015-16 Depth Chart

PG: Russell Westbrook/D.J. Augustin/Cameron Payne

SG: Anthony Morrow/Dion Waiters/

SF: Kevin Durant/Kyle Singler/Andre Roberson/Josh Huestis/Steve Novak

PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Perry Jones III

C: Steven Adams/Mitch McGary/Dakari Johnson

2015 Free Agents

C Enes Kanter (RFA)

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Murray State point guard Cameron Payne 14th overall

The Thunder seem to have their sights on Cameron Payne since early in the process, and the got their guy. It makes sense since backup point guard was one of the few longterm needs they had, with D.J. Augustin set to become a free agent next summer. This is an ideal situation for Payne because there won't be any pressure on him to come in and be the guy at point guard, instead he'll have a role and be able to play off of the Thunder's stars. Payne fits well in Oklahoma City because he is a good spot-up shooter that can play off the ball when sharing the backcourt with Russell Westbrook, but is also able to take the reins as the lead guard with Westbrook on the bench. It is also good for Payne that he won't have to shoulder starters minutes any time soon, he needs to get stronger before that will be a good idea.

Drafted Kentucky center Dakari Johnson 48th overall

Due to the incredible amount of talent on the Thunder's roster, Dakari Johnson is not likely to see a single minute of action this season, but will play in the D-League the whole year. Johnson is an old school, low-post center that plays very much below the rim. Johnson rebounds well and has great size, but will likely struggle on both ends of the court due to his well below average athletic ability. Playing in the D-League will benefit Johnson because he can learn to use his size to compensate in a low pressure environment.

What To Do Next

The Thunder want to bring back Enes Kanter and Kyle Singler, but besides that their roster is full so there isn't much else they can do unless they look for a trade involving D.J. Augustin in order to clear the way for Payne. Some of the periphery young talent on the roster could also be packaged with a pic or one of the Euro players Oklahoma City has the rights to in order to upgrade the shooting guard spot or clear room for a signing.

A bonus trade sure to never happen

D.J. Augustin to Washington for a second round pick

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Batum, Lamb, Barnes Trades

Hornets get SF Nicolas Batum

Blazers get PF Noah Vonleh, SG Gerald Henderson

I had mentioned Batum as a possible trade candidate to a team like Utah a couple weeks back, but Charlotte hadn't entered my thinking. The trade does make sense on their end, either as a part of their team moving forward or as a trade piece in the draft. He has always been an unappreciated player because he played in Portland with some bigger stars, but Batum is basically the ultimate role player who fits in seamlessly as a great third option. His fit in Charlotte's lineup is a little non-traditional because he'll be playing shooting guard at 6-8, but Batum has always been better against smaller players because he is so long and quick, but not very strong. Offensively, he had a down year last season but considering he has a consistent track record before that as a 35-40% three-point shooter on a high number of attempts, it is pretty safe to write off 2014-15 as a wrist injury aided aberration. This is good because Charlotte needs shooting more than any team in the league and could use Batum's ability to handle the ball and pass. Despite his size, Batum has developed into a quality pick-and-roll player that should help take some of the pressure off of Kemba Walker. Batum definitely fits best as a shooting guard, but can move up to the three on occasion and would make an intruiging small-ball lineup moving Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to power forward. The issue with this deal for Charlotte is that they gave up a lot of years of control over Vonleh for Batum, who will be a free agent in the summer of 2016. He'll turn 27 this year, so it should be safe to re-sign him and get his a good part of his prime years and early decline, but there is always the risk that he walks next summer and leaves Charlotte with nothing.

For Portland, it was first reported that this wasn't a sign of rebuilding and it wouldn't affect their ability to re-sign LaMarcus Aldridge but now ESPN is reporting there is a "99.9% chance" he is leaving in free agency this summer. If that is they case, Portland will have lost their best player Aldridge, their fourth best player Batum and could possibly lose their third best player, free agent Wes Matthews, who is by-the-way coming off of a torn Achilles and turning 29 this year. That smells an awful lot like rebuilding, in which case the acquisition of Vonleh makes a ton of sense: he is young (turning 20), a top 10 pick just last season, and on his rookie deal for three more seasons, with the possibility of staying under team control for almost a decade. However, all of that means absolutely nothing if he isn't any good, which is still up for debate. It's hard to learn anything based off of last season, Vonleh was injured and Charlotte was such a mess that evaluating the 259 minutes he played is rather fruitless. Coming into the draft, Vonleh had a tremendous frame at 6-10, 240 with a 7-4+ wingspan and good athletic testing numbers,  though the question remains whether he can actually effectively use that athletic ability on the court. One thing is clear, Vonleh can rebound. He did so in college and posted a top-20 rebound rate in his limited minutes this season (18.3). Part of Vonleh's appeal is that he projects as a good defender who can shoot from the perimeter at times, though really he didn't do either of those things particularly well in his first year, but like I said, it was basically a lost season. Because of the questions about Vonleh's ability to move laterally, it makes sense for him to play mostly center where he can certainly rebound and protect the rim, even if his help defense isn't outstanding. Offensively, all will rely on his jumper and whether it develops into a consistent weapon. If it does, Portland can get an approximation, albeit a lesser one, of the spacing, solid overall defense, and rebounding that Aldridge provided. 

Henderson is probably just here for the one season remaining on his contract, if indeed Portland decides to rebuild. He is a good defender against both shooting guards and small forward, but a lack of range offensively causes some spacing issues, making Henderson perhaps better suited to a bench role. Another possibility would be to use Henderson as part of a trade to acquire younger, higher upside talent.  Henderson is a useful player that could definitely help boost a contenders bench without a long term financial commitment. 

Thunder get PG Luke Ridnour

Hornets get SG Jeremy Lamb

Grizzlies get SF Matt Barnes

Magic get the draft rights to SF Janis Timma

This wasn't a four team trade, but essentially amounted to one. Ridnour might stick as Oklahoma City's third point guard, but considering they are trying to save money and create roster space, I wouldn't count on it.

Timma's rights are actually a bigger deal the average fan might believe, despite being the 60th overall pick in 2013, Kevin Pelton projects Timma as an above-replacement level player in the NBA. You'll probably read some jokes on the internet about Memphis getting Barnes for nothing, but Timma has actual value. If and when he comes to the NBA is up for debate, but Timma is a good athlete that has steadily developed his jumper to the point of being an above-average shooter.

Barnes is a decent addition to Memphis' wing rotation, at 35 how much is left in the tank is debatable, but he can still shoot, making between 34-36% of his threes last season on a decent number of attempts the last three seasons. Defensively, Barnes has slipped and is now better defending power forwards and could give Memphis some good small ball options, particularly paired with Jeff Green, who annually is better defending small forwards but is much better playing offensively against power forwards. The shooting is the real key, if Memphis can get Barnes to shoot more 3s and continue to make them efficiently, it will be huge for them.

For Charlotte, they gave up a player they weren't going to keep for a talented young player that helps to fix their biggest weakness and has potential to be very good. Lamb never found footing in Oklahoma City but actually played well when on the court. He's shot 35% from three in the NBA was also a career 35% shooter from deep in college and in the D-League as well. Interestingly, from three Lamb shot better in catch and shoot situations in 2013-14 (39%) and shot really well off-the-dribble last season (40%), if he can put those both together consistently Lamb could become a very good shooter. Even if not, Lamb is an above-average three-point shooter who also plays very good defense and has the potential to be even better on that end as he gains experience. At worst, I think if Lamb gets minutes he will be an excellent 3-and-D wing player capable of guarding positions 1-3, provided that the small forwards aren't too strong. Where Lamb, who just turned 23, stands out though is that he has potential for more, a very smooth athlete that can really jump and has 6-11 wingspan, he has a killer crossover and can attack the rim when in attack mode, which isn't as often as it should be. Overall, this is a great acquisition that should net Charlotte a rotation player at worst and help improve Charlotte's greatest weakness: shooting. Combine that with the trade for Batum, particularly by shipping out Henderson's lack of shooting ability, and the Hornet's have turn a big weakness into a relative strength without sacrificing any defense or playmaking ability.

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2015 Draft Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

2015-16 Depth Chart

PG: Russell Westbrook/D.J. Augustin

SG: Anthony Morrow/Dion Waiters/Jeremy Lamb

SF: Kevin Durant/Andre Roberson/Josh Huestis/Steve Novak

PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Perry Jones III

C: Steven Adams/Mitch McGary

2015 Free Agents

C Enes Kanter (RFA)

SF Kyle Singer (RFA)

2015 Draft Picks

1-14

2-18(48)

Team Needs

Oklahoma City's biggest need is to stay healthy for a whole season and with their rotation next year essentially set, any player they draft is likely to be only a bit player at first (unless those pesky injuries strike again). Because of this, Oklahoma City will be looking down the line for needs that may pop up in the future. Next summer D.J. Augustin, Dion Waiters, and Jeremy Lamb could all depart in free agency, leaving Oklahoma City thin in the backcourt. It can't be ruled out that Oklahoma City would use some of their myriad pieces to trade up for a first year impact prospect, they could also trade down or out of the first round altogether.

Potential Fits

Assuming that Oklahoma City is thinking backcourt, there are four main prospects in their range to look at: Duke's Tyus Jones, Murray State's Cameron Payne, Notre Dame's Jerian Grant, and Kentucky's Devin Booker. Jones, Payne, and Grant are all point guards; Jones is the best pure playmaker, but he has questions about his ability to defend and finish, not unlike Augustin. Payne is a good combination of scoring and playmaking, but also has similar size and defense questions. Grant is the best of the three right now (also the oldest) because he can defend either guard spot, but also legitimately play point guard full time if needed. Booker is a better shooter than all three, but isn't a point guard. At just 18 he has the most upside and could be groomed for a year as Anthony Morrow-insurance before taking a bigger role next season. New coach Billy Donovan will want players who can space the floor and move the ball, both of which Booker can do.

Mock Draft

14. Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky

48. Cedi Osman, SF, Andolu Efes

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Oklahoma City Thunder Draft Review

21. Mitch McGary, F/C Michigan So. (6-10, 250)
The Thunder value intangibles like motor and toughness as much as any franchise in the NBA and this draft really showed that. With both of their picks, they targeted un-flashy players who contribute in ways outside of scoring. McGary is actually most similar to current Thunder forward Nick Collison; rebounding on both ends, playing great help defense, passing, finishing around the basket, and hitting mid-range jumpers. McGary probably has more upside than Collison, but if they is all he becomes it would be well worth a late first round pick. The reason McGary fell, probably too far, were concerns about a back injury and a short track record of success. Collison will be a free agent at the end of next season, at which point McGary will take his place. Or, if Kendrick Perkins is amnestied or traded, he could backup Steven Adams at center.

29. Josh Huestis, G/F Stanford Sr. (6-8, 230) 
This pick confused me at first, Josh Huestis was off my radar some, but on further review it makes sense. Huestis is an excellent defender, an elite athlete with long arms and a high basketball IQ which makes his defensive ability play up even more. Down the road he could become one of the best defenders in the league. It is the offense that is the question, the last two seasons he shot .338% from 3, which is better than Jimmy Butler has shot last season. Butler is probably the best comp for Huestis, college Seniors who are great athletes, defense first, can make jumpshots, and contribute offensively due to their smarts and hustle. Maybe Huestis was a reach, but as a replacement to Thabo Sefolosha, which the Thunder need, he makes a lot of sense.

Projected Lineup
PG: Russell Westbrook/Reggie Jackson
SG: Jeremy Lamb/Josh Huestis
SF: Kevin Durant/Andre Roberson/Perry Jones
PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Mitch McGary
C: Kendrick Perkins/Steven Adams

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Draft Review: Oklahoma City Thunder

First Round

Steven Adams, C Pittsburgh (12)

It's important to remember that the Thunder weren't likely to get anyone who can help them short term, so while I don't love Steven Adams as a prospect, I understand the idea of taking a project when can contribute down the line. Adams has a long way to go offensively and even catching the ball, but he also has the potential to be an Omer Asik-type defensive player with long arms, strength, and physical play. If he can become that, this pick pays off regardless of his offense.

Andre Roberson, PF Colorado (26)

I love this pick, though somewhat of a reach value-wise, Andre Roberson is the kind of player I would want on my team. He is a long, athletic, super-high motor forward who rebounds like crazy. He isn't quite the freak in that respect that Kenneth Faried is, though Roberson is a better defensive player who can guard on the perimeter, block shots, and disrupt passing lanes. Put him on the floor and just let him wreck havoc defensively and not worry about his offense.

Second Round

Alex Abrines, SG Spain (32)

This seemed like a pretty obvious way for Oklahoma City to go with one of their picks, take the most talented overseas player on the board, stash him overseas for a while reap the reward down the line if he turns into anything. This saves a roster spot and money, but still invests in the future. Alex Abrines is an athletic shooter who projects as a Rudy Fernadez-type. 

Grant Jerrett, PF Arizona (40)

This is another pick I like for the Thunder, a no risk high reward selection. Grant Jerrett is a very good shooter at 6-10, 232 with a ton of upside. He was a top recruit in high school who didn't get much playing time at Arizona, and when he did was asked to just spot up. If he continues to develop as a shooter and improves the post game he showed in high school, Jerrett could be a very solid player for the Thunder and the kind of big they lack.

Projected Rotation

PG: Russell Westbrook/Reggie Jackson

SG: Thabo Sefolosha/Jeremy Lamb

SF: Kevin Durant/DeAndre Liggins

PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison

C: Kendrick Perkins/Hasheem Thabeet

What Will The Thunder Do at #12?

Shabazz Muhammad, SF UCLA Fr. (6-6, 222)

The Thunder need to find another scorer, despite the fact that Russell Westbrook will be back and healt, his injury exposed how limited the rest of the offense outside of Kevin Durant was. Muhammad is a pure scorer who will hunt his own shot with the ball, without the ball, and on the glass. He plays with energy that will be perfect as a scorer off the bench for Oklahoma City. Plus his ability is draw fouls will make a team great at that even better.

C.J. McCollom, SG Lehigh Sr. (6-3, 197)

The same can be said for McCollom, another big time scorer who can create his own shot, which is what the Thunder need. McCollom might not fit as well as Muhammad because of all the players in the Thunder back court, between Westbrook, Reggie Jackson, Jeremy Lamb, and Thabo Sefolosha not to mention Free Agent Kevin Martin. You can't have too much talent, however. 

Cody Zeller, PF Indiana So. (7-0, 230)

If Zeller falls to here, the Thunder will have to think long and hard about adding a scoring big like him, especially if Kendrick Perkins is amnestied. Zeller would fit in nicely as a bench scorer for the Thunder and give them a post presence they've really lacked as long as they've been in Oklahoma City.

Steven Adams, C Pittsburgh Fr. (7-0, 255)

The Thunder have been a really well run organization, but one place they've struggled is raw college big men. Both Byron (don't call me B.J.) Mullens and Cole Aldrich have been all and out busts and are no longer on the team. Steven Adams will be the next in that line if they take him. He's very raw, especially offensively, and is years away from his potential.

Sergey Karasev, SG Russia (6-7, 195)

Another prospect who could help the Thunder offensively is Karasev. Though he isn't the scorer McCollom and Muhmmad are, he's a knockdown shooter and a very good passer. The kind of player you put on the floor who makes everyone else better by spacing the floor and moving the ball.