Current Roster
PG: Elfrid Payton/DJ Augustin/CJ Watson
SG: Evan Fournier/Terrence Ross/Marcus Georges-Hunt
SF: Jonathan Isaac/Wesley Iwundu/Mario Hezonja
PF: Aaron Gordon
C: Nikola Vucevic/Bismack Biyombo/Stephen Zimmerman
2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
F Jeff Green
G Jodie Meeks
Restricted
F Damjam Rudez
Who They Drafted
1-6 Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State
2-33 Wesley Iwundu, SG/SF Kansas State
In Jonathan Isaac the Magic get potentially the best defensive player in the draft, a modern NBA defender that can guard easily on the wing as well as protect the rim like a big man. For the Magic, he will likely bounce between the forward spots with Aaron Gordon, playing more like a power forward on defense (due to his superior shot blocking skills) while manning the 3 offensively (due to his more consistent outside stroke and ball skills). Both Isaac and Gordon should be eminently switchable, giving Frank Vogel a lot of options for how to set up his defense, while offensively he will start out spacing the floor and attacking closeouts but could grow into a more versatile scorer in the future. Between Isaac, Gordon, Bismack Biyombo (if he bounces back) and Elfrid Payton, the Magic could start four big, long, versatile defenders and have an excellent defense. Isaac has the length and reach of a center and down the line it is not crazy to see him playing that position, especially as his body fills out. Effort and toughness are not questions for Isaac, so once he is stronger he should be able to handle the position. Offense for the Magic will be more of an issue, but that is okay, the Magic are rebuilding and this coming season should be about developing the players they have and instilling a culture of hard-work and defense. In the next couple of years, they can find a more dynamic scoring backcourt, just in time for Gordon and Isaac to be entering their prime years as players.
The Magic also took another long, versatile wing, this time in the form of Wesley Iwundu, who stands nearly 6-7 with an absurd 7-1 wingspan. Iwundu is a classic wing that can do a little bit of everything offensively, though he needs polish in all areas. At Kansas State, Iwundu played some point guard and has shown some ability as a passer and ball-handler, though is probably only ever a second or third option as a distributor, you can never have too many of those guys. As a shooter, he improved in his last season but it is an area that will require to become a consistent weapon. As with his offense, Iwundu's tools defensively are off the charts but he needs to work on becoming locked in at all times. For the Magic, who drafted him early in the second round, Iwundu will likely get only spot minutes starting out, but the Magic only have one natural small forward on the roster (Isaac) and even he might be better off playing power forward or center down the line, so Iwundu will get his chances to play this season. It would be and interesting experiment to play Iwundu and Evan Fournier in the backcourt, as both are able to play the point some, it is worth to see if two combo guards could be better than what the Magic are currently getting from Elfrid Payton.
What The Need Going Forward
The primary goal for the Magic this should be threefold:
1. Develop and evaluate their young players
Gordon and Isaac seem like keepers, but this is basically a make-or-break year for Elfrid Payton and Mario Hezonja, who have both been massive disappointments as top ten picks. Payton in particular needs to show something or his time in Orlando may be coming quickly to an end. Once the Magic know, one way or another on Payton and Hezonja that can move forward with the knowledge of what they will need in the future, be it point guard or scoring wing. Bismack Biyombo isn't a young NBA player anymore (or perhaps, never was...) but the Magic need to figure out if he can become the defender he had been previously (his defensive RPM dropped from 17th in the NBA in 2015-16 to 43rd among centers last season).
2. Acquire assets
The Magic are rebuilding and far from contention and so whatever they can sell off outside of Gordon and Isaac to bring back assets should be out the door, which leads to their last goal...
3. Clean up the mess
Former GM Rob Hennigan, his rear firmly entrenched on the hot seat, tried to accelerate Orlando's timeline last summer (a timeline which he himself slowed by poor decisions) and traded for Serge Ibaka, spent big on Biyombo, then brought in DJ Augustin and Jeff Green, not to mention the extension he previously gave to Nikola Vucevic. Green and Ibaka are already gone and Augustin should follow them as soon as possible, same story for Biyombo is he doesn't bounce back to his previous level defensively. Of course, the contracts they gave are so bad they may not be able to get rid of them easily, but they at least need to try. The same can be said for Vucevic, who is an inefficient scorer, terrible defender, and apparently a malcontent who refuses to come off the bench, he is doing more harm than good in Orlando at this point.
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Showing posts with label Orlando Magic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Orlando Magic. Show all posts
Saturday, June 24, 2017
Monday, February 27, 2017
2017 NBA Mock Draft (2/27)
Before the lottery, mock drafts are pretty silly but it at least gives an idea not only of team needs, but also how the strengths and weaknesses of the draft might play out. I used FiveThirtyEight's projection system (as of 2/24) to determine the draft order, though obviously some things will change by the end of the season, most notably Sacramento is likely to keep their draft pick (if it falls in the top 10) instead of sending it off the Chicago, after trading DeMarcus Cousins. Measurements are college team listed and age is on draft night.
01. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn Nets): Markelle Fultz, PG/SG Washington (6-4, 195) Age: 19
Fultz is the best prospect in the draft, whoever gets the first pick should draft him, no matter who they already have on the roster. For Boston, Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, and Avery Bradley are all becoming free agents in the next two years, so Fultz makes sense beyond that.
02. Phoenix Suns: Josh Jackson, SF Kansas (6-8, 207) Age: 20
The Suns have been searching for a two-way wing for years and they have several options in Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, and Jayson Tatum. Jackson is the better defender and fits next to the Suns' high usage guards. However, Tatum is a real option due to his sophisticated offensive game and based on the high upside style of drafting the Suns have pursed recently, Isaac is also a serious option.
03. Los Angeles Lakers: Lonzo Ball, PG UCLA (6-6, 190) Age: 19
Ball plays in LA, is from nearby Chino Hills, has the Lakers coveted "star" profile, and is a tall point guard that makes flashy plays ala new Lakers President of Basketball Ops Magic Johnson... If the Lakers keep their pick (it has to be top 3) and Ball is available when they select, it's hard to see a bigger lock than this.
04. Orlando Magic: Dennis Smith Jr, PG North Carolina (6-3, 195) Age: 19
Elfrid Payton has been improved, but it is going to be very hard to have a good offense with him as your starting point guard. Dennis Smith Jr. is a different story all together. Whatever Orlando's plan was in building their roster, it hasn't worked and it is time to move in a new direction, starting with Smith.
05. Philadelphia 76ers: Jayson Tatum, SF Duke (6-8, 205) Age: 19
While it might be tempting to put Malik Monk on the Sixers because of fit, but Tatum and Jonathan Isaac are better prospects and also fit needs for Philly. Tatum is good defender and a talented wing scorer who can shoot from three well enough to space the floor for Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
06. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State (6-10, 210) Age: 19
The Timberwolves defense has lacked a versatile forward on both ends of the court for a while now. Andrew Wiggins just hasn't gotten there as a defender and Gorgui Dieng is probably a better option as a backup center. Isaac is a really good fit with the rest of Minnesota's roster.
07. New York Knicks: Malik Monk, SG Kentucky (6-3, 200) Age: 19
The Knicks franchise has been a mess so far this season, but the good news is they will get a chance at finding another building block in the draft. Malik Monk is really up and down, but when he is up he can win a game for you. Sure to be an MSG fan favorite.
08. Sacramento Kings (from New Orleans): De'Aaron Fox, PG Kentucky (6-3, 187) Age: 19
With Darren Collison a free agent this summer and Ty Lawson no one's idea of a starting point guard, the Kings will need to find someone to run the team this summer. Fox isn't a shooting threat, but his passing and defense will be a solid fit in the next era of Kings' basketball.
09. Dallas Mavericks: Lauri Markkanen, PF/C Arizona (7-0, 230) Age: 19
It is probably a little too convenient that the tall European shooter is available to the Mavericks just as Dirk Nowitzki's career is winding down, but... It does make a lot of sense, as does Markkanen's fit next to new Dallas center Nerlens Noel.
10. Charlotte Hornets: Robert Williams, PF/C Texas A&M (6-9, 237) Age: 19
Two years ago the Hornets passed on a young big man from Texas and that didn't work out too well at all. Robert Williams' isn't the level of shooter (yet) that Myles Turner is, but he is a better athlete. Charlotte's backup big man issues have tanked their season and must be solved.
11. Chicago Bulls (from Sacramento): Frank Ntilikina, PG Strasbough (6-5, 170) Age: 18
The Bulls somehow have four point guards on their roster that can't shoot. Frank Ntilikina can not only shoot but he is an excellent pick-and-roll player and versatile defender. Note: this pick will belong to the Kings if it falls in the top ten, a likely outcome.)
12. Portland Trailblazers: Miles Bridges, SF/PF Michigan State (6-7, 230) Age: 19
This is the end of a tier of talent, but it also makes sense for Portland, who might look to get off the money owed wings Even Turner and Moe Harkless. Bridges is a combo forward who fits well next to Portland's guards because he is a spot-up shooter and rim finisher that can guard multiple positions but isn't a shot creator.
13. Milwaukee Bucks: Justin Patton, C Creighton (6-11, 215) Age: 20
Aside from Greg Monroe, the Bucks have several mediocre centers, and Monroe might not be long for Milwaukee. Justin Patton isn't a finished product, but his finishing skills, ability to run the floor, decent shooting touch, and mobility on defense would be a solid fit with the Bucks style of play.
14. Miami Heat: John Collins, PF/C Wake Forest (6-10, 218) Age: 19
The Heat are loaded down with wings and combo guards, but are surprisingly light in the big man spots. John Collins is a hyper-active, bouncy, super productive big man that would fit the Heat culture well.
15. Denver Nuggets: Harry Giles, PF/C Duke (6-10, 240) Age: 19
The Nuggets have so much young talent, they can afford to take a chance with their draft pick. Harry Giles and his knee injuries are definitely a risk, but there is also the reward of possibly a top 3 talent in the draft.
16. Detroit Pistons: Terrance Ferguson, SG Adelaide (6-7, 186) Age: 19
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is going to be one of the most sought after free agents this summer, and even though he is restricted there is a real chance Detroit could lose him. Terrance Ferguson has the KCP starter kit: top level athletic ability and a really nice stroke from the perimeter.
17. Chicago Bulls: Ivan Rabb, PF/C California (6-11, 220) Age: 20
With Taj Gibson traded, Christiano Felicio and Nikola Mirotic pending free agents and Bobby Portis not good yet, the Bulls are all of a sudden looking at a real deficiency in their frontcourt. Ivan Rabb is the kind of player the Bulls like to draft, accomplished and safe, but also lacking a big upside.
18. Indiana Pacers: Jarrett Allen, C Texas (6-11, 235) Age: 19
Well, the last time the Pacers drafted a big man from Texas it worked out, didn't it? Allen isn't quite the prospect that Myles Turner was, but he has tremendous measurables and would fit MUCH better as the Pacers backup center than Al Jefferson, who can't play fast like the Pacers want and tanks their defense.
19. Atlanta Hawks: Tyler Lydon, PF Syracuse (6-8, 205) Age: 21
Between Ryan Kelly and Ersan Ilyasova, it is clear the Hawks would like a stretch four for their system. Lydon is shooting .406% from three through 234 career attempts and he offers much more upside defensively than Kelly or Ilyasova.
20. Oklahoma City Thunder: Luke Kennard, SG Duke (6-5, 180) Age: 20
The Thunder clearly recognize their need for shooting, as they recently traded for Doug McDermott, but even with that addition, they need to add shooting going forward. Kennard is the kind of shooter they need and also makes smart plays, making up some for his physical deficiencies.
21. Toronto Raptors: T.J. Leaf, PF UCLA (6-10, 225) Age: 20
With Serge Ibaka and Patrick Patterson both entering free agency this year, the Raptors will need to shore up their frontcourt in preparation for losing one of them. Leaf has real warts defensively, but he is an active big man with a good outside shot.
22. Portland Trail Blazers (from Memphis): OG Anunoby, SF Indiana (6-8, 215) Age: 19
With three first round picks (at least for now, no doubt they will trade at least one) the Blazers can afford to take a chance, which OG Anunoby would definitely be since he is recovering from a knee injury and has regressed as as shooter, despite his immense defensive talent.
23. Utah Jazz: Justin Jackson, SF North Carolina (6-8, 193) Age: 22
Despite the fact there is no evidence pointing to Gordon Heyward's desire to leave Utah, (hey did you know Brad Stevens coached Heyward in college?) Utah will still need to have a backup plan if Heyward scoots. Jackson isn't Heyward in any way shape or form but he is a smart wing that can really shoot and moves well off the ball.
24. Brooklyn Nets (from Washington): Caleb Swanigan, PF/C Purdue (6-9, 260) Age: 20
The Nets need to make their draft picks count, so swinging for the fences makes sense with at least one of their two firsts this year. Caleb Swanigan isn't a traditional high upside pick because he isn't a great athlete, but he is very skilled and vacuums up rebounds.
25. Orlando Magic (from Los Angeles): Josh Hart, SG Villanova (6-5, 205) Age: 22
Playmaking and shooting have long been problems in Orlando, so Josh Hart fit the bill. Hart is a very good shooter and has really grown handling the ball and passing. His upside is low, but like Malcolm Brogdon last year, Hart looks like an early contributor.
26. Brooklyn Nets (from Boston): Shake Milton, PG/SG SMU (6-5, 195) Age: 20
The Net have had serious issues in their backcourt for the last two seasons and it has really hurt their ability to win games. Milton fits the Nets uptempo style of play and can really do a multitude of things on the court, including make plays, shoot, and defend multiple positions.
27. Los Angeles Lakers (from Houston): Donovan Mitchell, SG Louisville (6-3, 210) Age: 20
The Lakers need at least one guard that can defend. Mitchell can do that, as well as a tough off the dribble game and improved jumper.
28. Portland Trail Blazers (from Cleveland): Isaiah Hartenstein, C Zalgris (7-0, 225) Age: 19
Again, the Blazers are unlikely to use all three draft picks, but if they do they could look to draft-and-stash. Hartenstein has some question marks regarding attitude, but the talent and skill at his size is undeniable.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Bam Adebayo, C Kentucky (6-10, 260) Age: 20
The Spurs worked their magic again and have gotten a huge season out of castoff Dwayne Dedmon, however he will be a free agent this summer and likely to be highly coveted in this market bereft of rim protectors. Adebayo isn't much but an massive, athletic big at this point, but with some work, the Spurs tremendous staff could turn him into a quality backup down the line.
30. Utah Jazz (from Golden State): Johnathan Motley, PF/C Baylor (6-9, 230) Age: 22
Motley is a really solid all-around big that can play some center, which makes his jumper even more of a weapon while he has the defensive and rebounding potential to make it work as a backup big that helps on both ends.
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable information used in this post.
01. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn Nets): Markelle Fultz, PG/SG Washington (6-4, 195) Age: 19
Fultz is the best prospect in the draft, whoever gets the first pick should draft him, no matter who they already have on the roster. For Boston, Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, and Avery Bradley are all becoming free agents in the next two years, so Fultz makes sense beyond that.
02. Phoenix Suns: Josh Jackson, SF Kansas (6-8, 207) Age: 20
The Suns have been searching for a two-way wing for years and they have several options in Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, and Jayson Tatum. Jackson is the better defender and fits next to the Suns' high usage guards. However, Tatum is a real option due to his sophisticated offensive game and based on the high upside style of drafting the Suns have pursed recently, Isaac is also a serious option.
03. Los Angeles Lakers: Lonzo Ball, PG UCLA (6-6, 190) Age: 19
Ball plays in LA, is from nearby Chino Hills, has the Lakers coveted "star" profile, and is a tall point guard that makes flashy plays ala new Lakers President of Basketball Ops Magic Johnson... If the Lakers keep their pick (it has to be top 3) and Ball is available when they select, it's hard to see a bigger lock than this.
04. Orlando Magic: Dennis Smith Jr, PG North Carolina (6-3, 195) Age: 19
Elfrid Payton has been improved, but it is going to be very hard to have a good offense with him as your starting point guard. Dennis Smith Jr. is a different story all together. Whatever Orlando's plan was in building their roster, it hasn't worked and it is time to move in a new direction, starting with Smith.
05. Philadelphia 76ers: Jayson Tatum, SF Duke (6-8, 205) Age: 19
While it might be tempting to put Malik Monk on the Sixers because of fit, but Tatum and Jonathan Isaac are better prospects and also fit needs for Philly. Tatum is good defender and a talented wing scorer who can shoot from three well enough to space the floor for Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
06. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State (6-10, 210) Age: 19
The Timberwolves defense has lacked a versatile forward on both ends of the court for a while now. Andrew Wiggins just hasn't gotten there as a defender and Gorgui Dieng is probably a better option as a backup center. Isaac is a really good fit with the rest of Minnesota's roster.
07. New York Knicks: Malik Monk, SG Kentucky (6-3, 200) Age: 19
The Knicks franchise has been a mess so far this season, but the good news is they will get a chance at finding another building block in the draft. Malik Monk is really up and down, but when he is up he can win a game for you. Sure to be an MSG fan favorite.
08. Sacramento Kings (from New Orleans): De'Aaron Fox, PG Kentucky (6-3, 187) Age: 19
With Darren Collison a free agent this summer and Ty Lawson no one's idea of a starting point guard, the Kings will need to find someone to run the team this summer. Fox isn't a shooting threat, but his passing and defense will be a solid fit in the next era of Kings' basketball.
09. Dallas Mavericks: Lauri Markkanen, PF/C Arizona (7-0, 230) Age: 19
It is probably a little too convenient that the tall European shooter is available to the Mavericks just as Dirk Nowitzki's career is winding down, but... It does make a lot of sense, as does Markkanen's fit next to new Dallas center Nerlens Noel.
10. Charlotte Hornets: Robert Williams, PF/C Texas A&M (6-9, 237) Age: 19
Two years ago the Hornets passed on a young big man from Texas and that didn't work out too well at all. Robert Williams' isn't the level of shooter (yet) that Myles Turner is, but he is a better athlete. Charlotte's backup big man issues have tanked their season and must be solved.
11. Chicago Bulls (from Sacramento): Frank Ntilikina, PG Strasbough (6-5, 170) Age: 18
The Bulls somehow have four point guards on their roster that can't shoot. Frank Ntilikina can not only shoot but he is an excellent pick-and-roll player and versatile defender. Note: this pick will belong to the Kings if it falls in the top ten, a likely outcome.)
12. Portland Trailblazers: Miles Bridges, SF/PF Michigan State (6-7, 230) Age: 19
This is the end of a tier of talent, but it also makes sense for Portland, who might look to get off the money owed wings Even Turner and Moe Harkless. Bridges is a combo forward who fits well next to Portland's guards because he is a spot-up shooter and rim finisher that can guard multiple positions but isn't a shot creator.
13. Milwaukee Bucks: Justin Patton, C Creighton (6-11, 215) Age: 20
Aside from Greg Monroe, the Bucks have several mediocre centers, and Monroe might not be long for Milwaukee. Justin Patton isn't a finished product, but his finishing skills, ability to run the floor, decent shooting touch, and mobility on defense would be a solid fit with the Bucks style of play.
14. Miami Heat: John Collins, PF/C Wake Forest (6-10, 218) Age: 19
The Heat are loaded down with wings and combo guards, but are surprisingly light in the big man spots. John Collins is a hyper-active, bouncy, super productive big man that would fit the Heat culture well.
15. Denver Nuggets: Harry Giles, PF/C Duke (6-10, 240) Age: 19
The Nuggets have so much young talent, they can afford to take a chance with their draft pick. Harry Giles and his knee injuries are definitely a risk, but there is also the reward of possibly a top 3 talent in the draft.
16. Detroit Pistons: Terrance Ferguson, SG Adelaide (6-7, 186) Age: 19
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is going to be one of the most sought after free agents this summer, and even though he is restricted there is a real chance Detroit could lose him. Terrance Ferguson has the KCP starter kit: top level athletic ability and a really nice stroke from the perimeter.
17. Chicago Bulls: Ivan Rabb, PF/C California (6-11, 220) Age: 20
With Taj Gibson traded, Christiano Felicio and Nikola Mirotic pending free agents and Bobby Portis not good yet, the Bulls are all of a sudden looking at a real deficiency in their frontcourt. Ivan Rabb is the kind of player the Bulls like to draft, accomplished and safe, but also lacking a big upside.
18. Indiana Pacers: Jarrett Allen, C Texas (6-11, 235) Age: 19
Well, the last time the Pacers drafted a big man from Texas it worked out, didn't it? Allen isn't quite the prospect that Myles Turner was, but he has tremendous measurables and would fit MUCH better as the Pacers backup center than Al Jefferson, who can't play fast like the Pacers want and tanks their defense.
19. Atlanta Hawks: Tyler Lydon, PF Syracuse (6-8, 205) Age: 21
Between Ryan Kelly and Ersan Ilyasova, it is clear the Hawks would like a stretch four for their system. Lydon is shooting .406% from three through 234 career attempts and he offers much more upside defensively than Kelly or Ilyasova.
20. Oklahoma City Thunder: Luke Kennard, SG Duke (6-5, 180) Age: 20
The Thunder clearly recognize their need for shooting, as they recently traded for Doug McDermott, but even with that addition, they need to add shooting going forward. Kennard is the kind of shooter they need and also makes smart plays, making up some for his physical deficiencies.
21. Toronto Raptors: T.J. Leaf, PF UCLA (6-10, 225) Age: 20
With Serge Ibaka and Patrick Patterson both entering free agency this year, the Raptors will need to shore up their frontcourt in preparation for losing one of them. Leaf has real warts defensively, but he is an active big man with a good outside shot.
22. Portland Trail Blazers (from Memphis): OG Anunoby, SF Indiana (6-8, 215) Age: 19
With three first round picks (at least for now, no doubt they will trade at least one) the Blazers can afford to take a chance, which OG Anunoby would definitely be since he is recovering from a knee injury and has regressed as as shooter, despite his immense defensive talent.
23. Utah Jazz: Justin Jackson, SF North Carolina (6-8, 193) Age: 22
Despite the fact there is no evidence pointing to Gordon Heyward's desire to leave Utah, (hey did you know Brad Stevens coached Heyward in college?) Utah will still need to have a backup plan if Heyward scoots. Jackson isn't Heyward in any way shape or form but he is a smart wing that can really shoot and moves well off the ball.
24. Brooklyn Nets (from Washington): Caleb Swanigan, PF/C Purdue (6-9, 260) Age: 20
The Nets need to make their draft picks count, so swinging for the fences makes sense with at least one of their two firsts this year. Caleb Swanigan isn't a traditional high upside pick because he isn't a great athlete, but he is very skilled and vacuums up rebounds.
25. Orlando Magic (from Los Angeles): Josh Hart, SG Villanova (6-5, 205) Age: 22
Playmaking and shooting have long been problems in Orlando, so Josh Hart fit the bill. Hart is a very good shooter and has really grown handling the ball and passing. His upside is low, but like Malcolm Brogdon last year, Hart looks like an early contributor.
26. Brooklyn Nets (from Boston): Shake Milton, PG/SG SMU (6-5, 195) Age: 20
The Net have had serious issues in their backcourt for the last two seasons and it has really hurt their ability to win games. Milton fits the Nets uptempo style of play and can really do a multitude of things on the court, including make plays, shoot, and defend multiple positions.
27. Los Angeles Lakers (from Houston): Donovan Mitchell, SG Louisville (6-3, 210) Age: 20
The Lakers need at least one guard that can defend. Mitchell can do that, as well as a tough off the dribble game and improved jumper.
28. Portland Trail Blazers (from Cleveland): Isaiah Hartenstein, C Zalgris (7-0, 225) Age: 19
Again, the Blazers are unlikely to use all three draft picks, but if they do they could look to draft-and-stash. Hartenstein has some question marks regarding attitude, but the talent and skill at his size is undeniable.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Bam Adebayo, C Kentucky (6-10, 260) Age: 20
The Spurs worked their magic again and have gotten a huge season out of castoff Dwayne Dedmon, however he will be a free agent this summer and likely to be highly coveted in this market bereft of rim protectors. Adebayo isn't much but an massive, athletic big at this point, but with some work, the Spurs tremendous staff could turn him into a quality backup down the line.
30. Utah Jazz (from Golden State): Johnathan Motley, PF/C Baylor (6-9, 230) Age: 22
Motley is a really solid all-around big that can play some center, which makes his jumper even more of a weapon while he has the defensive and rebounding potential to make it work as a backup big that helps on both ends.
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable information used in this post.
Monday, June 29, 2015
2015 Draft Review: Orlando Magic
PG: Elfrid Payton/Tyler Harvey
SG: Victor Oladipo/Evan Fournier/Ben Gordon
SF: Mario Hezonja/Maurice Harkless/Devyn Marble
PF: Aaron Gordon/Channing Frye/Andrew Nicholson
C: Nikola Vucevic/Dewayne Dedmon
2015 Free Agents
F Tobias Harris (RFA)
C Kyle O'Quinn (RFA)
SG Willie Green
What The Did On Draft Night
Drafted Croatian wing Mario Hezonja 5th overall
There isn't a more perfect fit of team need and skillset that Mario Hezonja and the Magic. The Magic have a bunch of athletes that defend very hard but cannot really shoot, while shoot is what Hezonja does best. I actually like that Hezonja will be coached by Scott Skiles, who definitely has his flaws but he should be able to get the most out of Hezonja on the defensive end. When Hezonja is locked-in and trying on defense, he can be really really good at it; Skiles will require him to play defense to get on the floor. How Skiles deals with Hezonja's shot selection is another matter, but they are both such intense guys hopefully they'll respect each other. Both Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo are excellent creating off the dribble, so the hope is as they draw attention, Hezonja can work open behind the arc. If the defense over-commits towards him, Hezonja is more than capable of taking the ball to the basket off the dribble.
Drafted Eastern Washington combo guard Tyler Harvey 51st overall
Harvey is very similar to current Magic guard Ben Gordon in that he can shoot, and shoot really well, but nothing else. Both are undersized to play shooting guard but lack the creation skills to play point guard. Because he is such a good shooter, Harvey can stick on the roster as a shooting specialist that comes in and spaces the floor. In favorable match-ups, I could see Harvey defending point guards while Oladipo or Payton take the shooting guards as well as primary creation duties. This will work against some point guards, but it is questionable if you'd want Harvey defending Derrick Rose or Kyrie Irving. Last season Orlando was so putrid shooting the three that Harvey, if he makes the roster, could have a bigger impact than the average last second round pick.
What to do next?
Unless Orlando is really looking to shake up their roster via trade, they should have a relatively quite offseason. Their one big decision is whether or not to re-sign restricted free agent Tobias Harris. Harris could really help Orlando's scoring starved offense and would compliment Aaron Gordon's defense well off the bench, but Harris and Skiles clashed when both were in Memphis so it is unclear if either is interested in re-uniting. Another factor is that Harris might be offered big money that the Magic are unwilling to match. Beyond that, Orlando's big need is a backup point guard, preferably one that can shoot. Aaron Brooks would be an interesting option who could run a devastating pick-and-pop with Channing Frye.
A bonus trade sure not to happen
Channing Frye to Washington for Nene
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Thursday, June 25, 2015
Batum, Lamb, Barnes Trades
Blazers get PF Noah Vonleh, SG Gerald Henderson
I had mentioned Batum as a possible trade candidate to a team like Utah a couple weeks back, but Charlotte hadn't entered my thinking. The trade does make sense on their end, either as a part of their team moving forward or as a trade piece in the draft. He has always been an unappreciated player because he played in Portland with some bigger stars, but Batum is basically the ultimate role player who fits in seamlessly as a great third option. His fit in Charlotte's lineup is a little non-traditional because he'll be playing shooting guard at 6-8, but Batum has always been better against smaller players because he is so long and quick, but not very strong. Offensively, he had a down year last season but considering he has a consistent track record before that as a 35-40% three-point shooter on a high number of attempts, it is pretty safe to write off 2014-15 as a wrist injury aided aberration. This is good because Charlotte needs shooting more than any team in the league and could use Batum's ability to handle the ball and pass. Despite his size, Batum has developed into a quality pick-and-roll player that should help take some of the pressure off of Kemba Walker. Batum definitely fits best as a shooting guard, but can move up to the three on occasion and would make an intruiging small-ball lineup moving Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to power forward. The issue with this deal for Charlotte is that they gave up a lot of years of control over Vonleh for Batum, who will be a free agent in the summer of 2016. He'll turn 27 this year, so it should be safe to re-sign him and get his a good part of his prime years and early decline, but there is always the risk that he walks next summer and leaves Charlotte with nothing.
For Portland, it was first reported that this wasn't a sign of rebuilding and it wouldn't affect their ability to re-sign LaMarcus Aldridge but now ESPN is reporting there is a "99.9% chance" he is leaving in free agency this summer. If that is they case, Portland will have lost their best player Aldridge, their fourth best player Batum and could possibly lose their third best player, free agent Wes Matthews, who is by-the-way coming off of a torn Achilles and turning 29 this year. That smells an awful lot like rebuilding, in which case the acquisition of Vonleh makes a ton of sense: he is young (turning 20), a top 10 pick just last season, and on his rookie deal for three more seasons, with the possibility of staying under team control for almost a decade. However, all of that means absolutely nothing if he isn't any good, which is still up for debate. It's hard to learn anything based off of last season, Vonleh was injured and Charlotte was such a mess that evaluating the 259 minutes he played is rather fruitless. Coming into the draft, Vonleh had a tremendous frame at 6-10, 240 with a 7-4+ wingspan and good athletic testing numbers, though the question remains whether he can actually effectively use that athletic ability on the court. One thing is clear, Vonleh can rebound. He did so in college and posted a top-20 rebound rate in his limited minutes this season (18.3). Part of Vonleh's appeal is that he projects as a good defender who can shoot from the perimeter at times, though really he didn't do either of those things particularly well in his first year, but like I said, it was basically a lost season. Because of the questions about Vonleh's ability to move laterally, it makes sense for him to play mostly center where he can certainly rebound and protect the rim, even if his help defense isn't outstanding. Offensively, all will rely on his jumper and whether it develops into a consistent weapon. If it does, Portland can get an approximation, albeit a lesser one, of the spacing, solid overall defense, and rebounding that Aldridge provided.
Henderson is probably just here for the one season remaining on his contract, if indeed Portland decides to rebuild. He is a good defender against both shooting guards and small forward, but a lack of range offensively causes some spacing issues, making Henderson perhaps better suited to a bench role. Another possibility would be to use Henderson as part of a trade to acquire younger, higher upside talent. Henderson is a useful player that could definitely help boost a contenders bench without a long term financial commitment.
Thunder get PG Luke Ridnour
Hornets get SG Jeremy Lamb
Grizzlies get SF Matt Barnes
Magic get the draft rights to SF Janis Timma
This wasn't a four team trade, but essentially amounted to one. Ridnour might stick as Oklahoma City's third point guard, but considering they are trying to save money and create roster space, I wouldn't count on it.
Timma's rights are actually a bigger deal the average fan might believe, despite being the 60th overall pick in 2013, Kevin Pelton projects Timma as an above-replacement level player in the NBA. You'll probably read some jokes on the internet about Memphis getting Barnes for nothing, but Timma has actual value. If and when he comes to the NBA is up for debate, but Timma is a good athlete that has steadily developed his jumper to the point of being an above-average shooter.
Barnes is a decent addition to Memphis' wing rotation, at 35 how much is left in the tank is debatable, but he can still shoot, making between 34-36% of his threes last season on a decent number of attempts the last three seasons. Defensively, Barnes has slipped and is now better defending power forwards and could give Memphis some good small ball options, particularly paired with Jeff Green, who annually is better defending small forwards but is much better playing offensively against power forwards. The shooting is the real key, if Memphis can get Barnes to shoot more 3s and continue to make them efficiently, it will be huge for them.
For Charlotte, they gave up a player they weren't going to keep for a talented young player that helps to fix their biggest weakness and has potential to be very good. Lamb never found footing in Oklahoma City but actually played well when on the court. He's shot 35% from three in the NBA was also a career 35% shooter from deep in college and in the D-League as well. Interestingly, from three Lamb shot better in catch and shoot situations in 2013-14 (39%) and shot really well off-the-dribble last season (40%), if he can put those both together consistently Lamb could become a very good shooter. Even if not, Lamb is an above-average three-point shooter who also plays very good defense and has the potential to be even better on that end as he gains experience. At worst, I think if Lamb gets minutes he will be an excellent 3-and-D wing player capable of guarding positions 1-3, provided that the small forwards aren't too strong. Where Lamb, who just turned 23, stands out though is that he has potential for more, a very smooth athlete that can really jump and has 6-11 wingspan, he has a killer crossover and can attack the rim when in attack mode, which isn't as often as it should be. Overall, this is a great acquisition that should net Charlotte a rotation player at worst and help improve Charlotte's greatest weakness: shooting. Combine that with the trade for Batum, particularly by shipping out Henderson's lack of shooting ability, and the Hornet's have turn a big weakness into a relative strength without sacrificing any defense or playmaking ability.
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Timma's rights are actually a bigger deal the average fan might believe, despite being the 60th overall pick in 2013, Kevin Pelton projects Timma as an above-replacement level player in the NBA. You'll probably read some jokes on the internet about Memphis getting Barnes for nothing, but Timma has actual value. If and when he comes to the NBA is up for debate, but Timma is a good athlete that has steadily developed his jumper to the point of being an above-average shooter.
Barnes is a decent addition to Memphis' wing rotation, at 35 how much is left in the tank is debatable, but he can still shoot, making between 34-36% of his threes last season on a decent number of attempts the last three seasons. Defensively, Barnes has slipped and is now better defending power forwards and could give Memphis some good small ball options, particularly paired with Jeff Green, who annually is better defending small forwards but is much better playing offensively against power forwards. The shooting is the real key, if Memphis can get Barnes to shoot more 3s and continue to make them efficiently, it will be huge for them.
For Charlotte, they gave up a player they weren't going to keep for a talented young player that helps to fix their biggest weakness and has potential to be very good. Lamb never found footing in Oklahoma City but actually played well when on the court. He's shot 35% from three in the NBA was also a career 35% shooter from deep in college and in the D-League as well. Interestingly, from three Lamb shot better in catch and shoot situations in 2013-14 (39%) and shot really well off-the-dribble last season (40%), if he can put those both together consistently Lamb could become a very good shooter. Even if not, Lamb is an above-average three-point shooter who also plays very good defense and has the potential to be even better on that end as he gains experience. At worst, I think if Lamb gets minutes he will be an excellent 3-and-D wing player capable of guarding positions 1-3, provided that the small forwards aren't too strong. Where Lamb, who just turned 23, stands out though is that he has potential for more, a very smooth athlete that can really jump and has 6-11 wingspan, he has a killer crossover and can attack the rim when in attack mode, which isn't as often as it should be. Overall, this is a great acquisition that should net Charlotte a rotation player at worst and help improve Charlotte's greatest weakness: shooting. Combine that with the trade for Batum, particularly by shipping out Henderson's lack of shooting ability, and the Hornet's have turn a big weakness into a relative strength without sacrificing any defense or playmaking ability.
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Thursday, June 11, 2015
2015 Draft Preview: Orlando Magic
PG: Elfrid Payton/Luke Ridnour
SG: Victor Oladipo/Evan Fournier/Ben Gordon
SF: Maurice Harkless/Devyn Marble
PF: Aaron Gordon/Andrew Nicholson
C: Nikola Vucevic/Dewayne Dedmon
2015 Free Agents
F Tobias Harris (RFA)
C Kyle O'Quinn (RFA)
SG Willie Green
2015 Draft Picks
1-5
2-21(51) via Chicago
Team Needs
Despite the defensive potential of Payton, Oladipo, Harkless, and Gordon, Orlando's defense was terrible last season, due in large part to the struggles of Vucevic on that end. Unfortunately, those aforementioned four players also didn't play so great offensively, while Vucevic excelled on that end. That imbalance just didn't work for Orlando, as they ended up with the forth worst offense and sixth worst defense. The question for Orlando is, how to fix this? Is it just a matter of patience, let their young players develop some offense or defense? Are the one key piece away from making it all work together? Or is this just a poorly constructed team that needs to make some moves to shake things up? I would suspect that the solution is a combination of the first two, but that doesn't mean it is going to work out.
Potential Fits
The next question is how to use this draft to help your team take the next step. Kentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein could really be a boon to the defense but is an awkward fit offensively next to Vucevic. Croatian wing Mario Hezonja would give them more offensive versatility and should hurt their defense too much, while fellow wings Justise Winslow would improve their perimeter defense, they might not be the kind of offensive players you'd want to thrust into a big offensive role just yet. Emmanuel Mudiay would possibly be available, but Payton's presence likely takes him out of the running for him. Kristaps Porzingis would help both offense and defense... in another year or two. In the second round, they are picking so late that they could really go in any direction. Also, because they have so many players already on their roster, a stash prospect is likely to be strongly considered.
Mock
5. Mario Hezonja, G/F, Barcelona
51. Nedim Buza, SF, Spars Sarejevo
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Tuesday, April 28, 2015
2015 NBA Mock Draft (4/28)
Mock drafts before the lottery can seem like pointless exercises, but they are useful in gauging team needs and what players will likely be available around when they pick. No matter who wins the lottery or where teams move, they aren't going that far from where they are currently situated. This draft is what I currently think will happen, not necessarily what should happen.
1. Minnesota Timberwolves (25%): Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C Kentucky (6-11, 250) Age: 19
The Timberwolves look to have a future superstar in Andrew Wiggins and young building blocks in Ricky Rubio and Gorgui Dieng as well as a collection of young talents that may turn into above-average NBA players. Add to that potentially a top overall pick and no worse than a top 5 pick and you have a future contender. If they do land the top pick, as the odds favor, then they could honestly consider any of the top 4 talents, but Towns is the obvious pick because he is the best prospect and will give Minnesota a backbone on both offense and defense.
2. New York Knicks (19.9%): Jahlil Okafor, C Duke (6-11, 270) Age: 19
For the Knicks, it may be best for them to fall a spot in the lottery and "lose out" on Okafor, who is a wonderful talent but perhaps not the best fit for the Knicks offense. Okafor has some question marks, but their is no denying his ability to score in the paint and rebound, but how he functions along side Carmelo and in the triangle is anyone's guess. Still, at this point the Knicks should be married to neither their system nor Derek Fisher as coach and their primary goal should be acquiring talent for the next great Knicks team, not to fit the triangle.
3. Philadelphia 76ers (15.6%): D'Angelo Russell, G Ohio State (6-5, 180) Age: 19
The 76ers had as successful as season you can have when winning only 18 games. Nerlens Noel showed himself to a legitimate piece, Jerami Grant, Tony Wroten, and Robert Covington emerged as potential role players all while Joel Embiid got healthy. Now they need an engine to make the team run and D'Angelo Russell is ideally suited to that role as perimeter alpha dog because he can both score and distribute with equal excellence. At his best, Russell can be a 20 point a game scorer averaging 8+ assists and shooting over 40% from 3.
4. Los Angeles Lakers (11.9%): Emmanuel Mudiay, PG Guandong (6-5, 200) Age: 19
The Lakers basically need talent at every position and Emmanuel Mudiay is the last of the elite tier of four atop the draft, so any other pick would be a mistake. Mudiay is the kind of talent that can help turn the Lakers around, both with his on court impact but also the ability to attract free agents that will want to play with a young point guard that loves to push the ball and plays very hard defensively. Of course, the Lakers will probably but impatient and sign Rajon Rondo then trade this pick for some role players in an effort to "win now".
5. Orlando Magic (8.8%): Justise Winslow, SF Duke (6-6, 225) Age: 19
The Magic will hope to jump into the top four and get one of those elite prospects, but if not Justise Winslow or Willie Cauley-Stein wouldn't be a terrible consolation prize. Winslow fits Orlando's draft profile of high character defenders who love the game and winning. Winslow will also benefit the Magic offense because of his ability to shoot, handle the ball, and pass. Wille Cauley-Stein would make sense also to help offset Nikola Vucevic's defensive woes, as would Mario Hezonja to help upgrade their anemic offense.
6. Sacramento Kings (6.3%): Willie Cauley-Stein, C Kentucky (7-0, 240) Age: 21
Since it is uncertain who exactly is making the decisions at this point in Sacramento, trying to predict what they will do is somewhat of a crapshoot. Sacramento was middle of the road offensively, but were bottom 5 defensively. Willie Cauley-Stein may not be an obvious fit next to DeMarcus Cousins, but I actually think it is a great because Cousins can carry the load offensively while WCS can orchestrate the defense, which would be definitely upgraded by his presence due to his ability to guard all 5 positions and protect the rim.
7. Denver Nuggets (4.3%): Mario Hezonja, G/F Barcelona (6-8, 200) Age: 20
Like Orlando, the Nuggets don't have a coach yet, so their decision making process could be a greatly affected once they hire one. Still, they have some obvious needs, mainly acquiring talent everywhere but point guard and center. Mario Hezonja is one of the most talented players in the draft and Denver has shown a proclivity to dip into international prospects, so the fit is obvious, especially when you consider that Randy Foye was Denver's starter at shooting guard last season. Hezonja may have an adjustment period but by the end of his rookie season I'd expect him to not only be starting, but excelling.
8. Detroit Pistons (2.8%): Kristaps Porzingis, PF Sevilla (7-0, 220) Age: 19
Greg Monroe is an unrestricted free agent and will likely not be back in Detroit so the Pistons will likely be looking for a long term starter to pair with Andre Drummond. Kristaps Porzingis would be an ideal fit there because he is such a skilled perimeter player who can stretch the floor. He is also a great athlete who can block shots and won't hurt Detroit's defense once he has grown into his body. Porzingis has star potential and would be a great fit in Stan Van Gundy's offense, sort of a cross between peak Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu with better defense.
9. Charlotte Hornets (1.7%): Stanley Johnson, SF Arizona (6-7, 245) Age: 18
What the Hornets most need is a point guard that can relegate Kemba Walker to a bench role (where he would be awesome) but considering the contract they just gave him, it's unlikely to happen. In lieu of that, they will be in the market for some wing players because both Gerald Henderson and Jeff Taylor are free agents, while Lance Stephenson is born ready for the bench. After Stanley Johnson there is a drop off in prospects, so they'd be smart to take him even if it didn't fill a need, which it does. Johnson is similar to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in how hard he works every time he is on the court. He is a much better shooter than MKG, which should allow them both to play together.
10. Miami Heat (1.1%): Kelly Oubre, SF Kansas (6-7, 200) Age: 19
When healthy, the Heat will have a starting 5 to rival any team in the league. Their bench? Not so much. The Heat under Pat Riley haven't shown much interest in young players, but they also haven't picked this high in quite a while. Kelly Oubre was very inconsistent at Kansas, so he will benefit from being drafted by a team that isn't going to rely on him heavily, instead he can back up Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng and figure out the consistency surrounded by talented players and an excellent coach.
11. Indiana Pacers (0.8%): Myles Turner, F/C Texas (6-11, 240) Age: 19
In 2012, the Pacers drafted a young, incredibly talented player in the lottery who needed to develop some consistency and polish. Five years later, Paul George is one of the ten best players in the NBA, so why not take a similar route in this draft? Myles Turner has tremendous size, a 7-4 wingspan, and great touch on his mid-range jump shot. In a year or two, his range could be to the 3-point line and Indiana would have a center who can both block shots and space the floor. I ascribe to the idea that a team that is rarely in the lottery should take shots on high upside players because you can find higher-floor players later in the draft.
12. Utah Jazz (0.7%): Jerian Grant, PG Notre Dame (6-5, 202) Age: 22
The Jazz have a roster loaded with young talent, including players like Dante Exum who will likely be taking big steps forward every year for the next number of years. Point guard is a position that is in some flux and could use a steady hand. It still isn't certain what Exum's best position is and Trey Burke is best suited as a bench option. Jerian Grant is ready to step in and solidify Utah's point guard position with scoring, passing, and defense, all things Grant can do. He can also play off guard alongside Burke or Exum. Those three, plus Rodney Hood and Alec Burks, will give Utah a deep, versatile backcourt.
13. Phoenix Suns (0.6%): Frank Kaminsky, F/C Wisconsin (7-0, 234) Age: 22
With Brandon Wright as a free agent, the only center on the Suns roster is Alex Len, who has shown a ton of promise but has been injured a lot. Frank Kaminsky isn't a traditional center and may be better suited as at the 4, but he should be able to find time at both positions. The Suns offense would really benefit from Kaminsky's shooting ability, something they lost when Channing Frye left, and he can really compliment Len and Markieff Morris playing alongside either. Kaminsky is ready to come in right away and contribute, which will appeal to the Suns who wil want to wash away the mess that was last season quickly.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder (0.5%): Sam Dekker, F Wisconsin (6-9, 220) Age: 20
Kaminsky, Oubre, or Grant would be a great fit in OKC but with all of them off the board they may have to take a chance on a less certain prospect. Dekker is best suited as a stretch-4 who can take bigger players off the dribble to the rim, where he shot a very impressive 75% last season. The Thunder have a glut of bigs, but none quite like Dekker who would have the added bonus of allowing cross-matches with Durant at the 4. He is also a smart, high character, hard working player who would fit nicely into OKC's roster.
15. Atlanta Hawks (from Brooklyn): Kevon Looney, PF UCLA (6-9, 220) Age: 19
Paul Millsap and Elton Brand are free agents, and while the latter is likely to retire, the former could make a lot of money on the open market, leaving his future in Atlanta in doubt. Kevon Looney is developing a 3-point shot, something Atlanta covets, and is an outstanding offensive rebounder. I am not as bullish as some on his game, but Atlanta drafted a similar player last season, Adreian Payne and subsequently traded him. The biggest difference? Looney is a whooping five years younger than Payne.
16. Boston Celtics: Bobby Portis, PF Arkansas (6-11, 242) Age: 20
Brandon Bass is a free agent and I don't know if Boston will be looking to re-sign a 29 year-old undersized power forward. But even if they do, depth will be needed behind him as Jonas Jerebko is also a free agent. Bobby Portis is a well-rounded power forward with great size and a 7-1+ wingspan. He can score from anywhere inside the arc and has even started making college 3s. Defensively he isn't a dominant shot blocker, but he is smart, positions himself well, and plays hard. Portis is unlikely to be a star but is even more unlikely to be a bust. As a starter I could see him averaging 12 and 8 with good defense and rebounding.
17. Milwaukee Bucks: Devin Booker, SG Kentucky (6-6, 206) Age: 18
The Bucks were seventh in 3P% last season, but just twenty-sixth in attempts, so even if Khris Middleton is re-signed they'll be looking to upgrade their perimeter shooting in the offseason. The questions about Devin Booker surround what else he can do besides shoot, not his shooting. Put him on the floor and he will make 3s and space the floor. Whether he becomes more than just a 3-point specialist will depend on his ability to defend and put the ball on the floor, but the shooting will definitely play.
18. Houston Rockets (from New Orleans): Tyler Harvey, SG Eastern Washington (6-4, 185) Age: 21
This would be a surprise, and I don't value Harvey this highly, but the Rockets' needs at point guard are unique and Harvey would be a great fit. With James Harden to play as the de facto point guard, Houston really just needs someone who can make shots and play a little defense. Harvey should be able to be at least average vs. other point guards, but man can he shoot. Any situation, off the dribble, spotting up, pull ups, does not matter. Harvey will get comped to a poor-man's Steph Curry, so I could see him rising a lot before the draft, even if there are some flaws, many of which would masked by Houston's personnel.
19. Washington Wizards: Cameron Payne, PG Murray State (6-2, 180) Age: 20
John Wall is clearly the Wizards' best player and one of the best point guards in the league, so he will be on the court for the majority of the minutes at point guard, but when he is on the bench, you want a better option than Ramon Sessions. Cameron Payne can legitimately play point guard, is a good shooter, and can score enough that he could play alongside Wall at times, who has the size to guard 2s. Payne likely won't be a star, but as a role player he can provide a ton of value.
20. Toronto Raptors: Christian Wood, PF UNLV (6-10, 220) Age: 19
Amir Johnson has struggled this season and has likely played his last game in Toronto, ditto for Tyler Hansbrough, which would leave Patrick Patterson as the lone power forward on the roster. Christian Wood is talented enough to go 8 pick higher and would be great value here. Wood is athletic with a 7-2 wingspan, and a good mid-range shooter who can be dominant on the glass while also blocking shots a high rate (2.6 a game as a Sophomore). Wood has the upside to be an above-average starter with a high likelihood to be at least a bench option.
21. Dallas Mavericks: Tyus Jones, PG Duke (6-1, 190) Age: 18
The Mavericks could be losing up to 11 players in free agency, so they could really go any direction here. I think though, that finding the right point guard will be crucial because of how Dallas likes to run their free-wheeling offense. Tyus Jones would be a great fit because he can shoot from 3, knows how to use screens, and will almost always make the correct decision. Dallas may not be willing to hand over the keys of their roster to an 18 year-old rookie, but even if he is just a back-up, Jones will be a contributor offensively for a long time.
22. Chicago Bulls: R.J. Hunter, SG Georgia State (6-6, 190) Age: 21
While Jimmy Butler is very to re-sign in Chicago, Mike Dunleavey is not, so adding another perimeter scorer to go with Butler and Doug McDermott should be a priority in free agency or the draft. R.J. Hunter is a better shooter than his numbers suggest last season and should flourish as a role player because he won't command nearly the defensive attention he did in college. Hunter is also decent creating off the dribble and can run pick-and-roll, a nice plus to go with his shooting ability.
23. Portland Trailblazers: Montrezl Harrell, PF Louisville (6-8, 240) Age: 21
For the Knicks, it may be best for them to fall a spot in the lottery and "lose out" on Okafor, who is a wonderful talent but perhaps not the best fit for the Knicks offense. Okafor has some question marks, but their is no denying his ability to score in the paint and rebound, but how he functions along side Carmelo and in the triangle is anyone's guess. Still, at this point the Knicks should be married to neither their system nor Derek Fisher as coach and their primary goal should be acquiring talent for the next great Knicks team, not to fit the triangle.
3. Philadelphia 76ers (15.6%): D'Angelo Russell, G Ohio State (6-5, 180) Age: 19
The 76ers had as successful as season you can have when winning only 18 games. Nerlens Noel showed himself to a legitimate piece, Jerami Grant, Tony Wroten, and Robert Covington emerged as potential role players all while Joel Embiid got healthy. Now they need an engine to make the team run and D'Angelo Russell is ideally suited to that role as perimeter alpha dog because he can both score and distribute with equal excellence. At his best, Russell can be a 20 point a game scorer averaging 8+ assists and shooting over 40% from 3.
4. Los Angeles Lakers (11.9%): Emmanuel Mudiay, PG Guandong (6-5, 200) Age: 19
The Lakers basically need talent at every position and Emmanuel Mudiay is the last of the elite tier of four atop the draft, so any other pick would be a mistake. Mudiay is the kind of talent that can help turn the Lakers around, both with his on court impact but also the ability to attract free agents that will want to play with a young point guard that loves to push the ball and plays very hard defensively. Of course, the Lakers will probably but impatient and sign Rajon Rondo then trade this pick for some role players in an effort to "win now".
5. Orlando Magic (8.8%): Justise Winslow, SF Duke (6-6, 225) Age: 19
The Magic will hope to jump into the top four and get one of those elite prospects, but if not Justise Winslow or Willie Cauley-Stein wouldn't be a terrible consolation prize. Winslow fits Orlando's draft profile of high character defenders who love the game and winning. Winslow will also benefit the Magic offense because of his ability to shoot, handle the ball, and pass. Wille Cauley-Stein would make sense also to help offset Nikola Vucevic's defensive woes, as would Mario Hezonja to help upgrade their anemic offense.
6. Sacramento Kings (6.3%): Willie Cauley-Stein, C Kentucky (7-0, 240) Age: 21
Since it is uncertain who exactly is making the decisions at this point in Sacramento, trying to predict what they will do is somewhat of a crapshoot. Sacramento was middle of the road offensively, but were bottom 5 defensively. Willie Cauley-Stein may not be an obvious fit next to DeMarcus Cousins, but I actually think it is a great because Cousins can carry the load offensively while WCS can orchestrate the defense, which would be definitely upgraded by his presence due to his ability to guard all 5 positions and protect the rim.
7. Denver Nuggets (4.3%): Mario Hezonja, G/F Barcelona (6-8, 200) Age: 20
Like Orlando, the Nuggets don't have a coach yet, so their decision making process could be a greatly affected once they hire one. Still, they have some obvious needs, mainly acquiring talent everywhere but point guard and center. Mario Hezonja is one of the most talented players in the draft and Denver has shown a proclivity to dip into international prospects, so the fit is obvious, especially when you consider that Randy Foye was Denver's starter at shooting guard last season. Hezonja may have an adjustment period but by the end of his rookie season I'd expect him to not only be starting, but excelling.
8. Detroit Pistons (2.8%): Kristaps Porzingis, PF Sevilla (7-0, 220) Age: 19
Greg Monroe is an unrestricted free agent and will likely not be back in Detroit so the Pistons will likely be looking for a long term starter to pair with Andre Drummond. Kristaps Porzingis would be an ideal fit there because he is such a skilled perimeter player who can stretch the floor. He is also a great athlete who can block shots and won't hurt Detroit's defense once he has grown into his body. Porzingis has star potential and would be a great fit in Stan Van Gundy's offense, sort of a cross between peak Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu with better defense.
9. Charlotte Hornets (1.7%): Stanley Johnson, SF Arizona (6-7, 245) Age: 18
What the Hornets most need is a point guard that can relegate Kemba Walker to a bench role (where he would be awesome) but considering the contract they just gave him, it's unlikely to happen. In lieu of that, they will be in the market for some wing players because both Gerald Henderson and Jeff Taylor are free agents, while Lance Stephenson is born ready for the bench. After Stanley Johnson there is a drop off in prospects, so they'd be smart to take him even if it didn't fill a need, which it does. Johnson is similar to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in how hard he works every time he is on the court. He is a much better shooter than MKG, which should allow them both to play together.
10. Miami Heat (1.1%): Kelly Oubre, SF Kansas (6-7, 200) Age: 19
When healthy, the Heat will have a starting 5 to rival any team in the league. Their bench? Not so much. The Heat under Pat Riley haven't shown much interest in young players, but they also haven't picked this high in quite a while. Kelly Oubre was very inconsistent at Kansas, so he will benefit from being drafted by a team that isn't going to rely on him heavily, instead he can back up Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng and figure out the consistency surrounded by talented players and an excellent coach.
11. Indiana Pacers (0.8%): Myles Turner, F/C Texas (6-11, 240) Age: 19
In 2012, the Pacers drafted a young, incredibly talented player in the lottery who needed to develop some consistency and polish. Five years later, Paul George is one of the ten best players in the NBA, so why not take a similar route in this draft? Myles Turner has tremendous size, a 7-4 wingspan, and great touch on his mid-range jump shot. In a year or two, his range could be to the 3-point line and Indiana would have a center who can both block shots and space the floor. I ascribe to the idea that a team that is rarely in the lottery should take shots on high upside players because you can find higher-floor players later in the draft.
12. Utah Jazz (0.7%): Jerian Grant, PG Notre Dame (6-5, 202) Age: 22
The Jazz have a roster loaded with young talent, including players like Dante Exum who will likely be taking big steps forward every year for the next number of years. Point guard is a position that is in some flux and could use a steady hand. It still isn't certain what Exum's best position is and Trey Burke is best suited as a bench option. Jerian Grant is ready to step in and solidify Utah's point guard position with scoring, passing, and defense, all things Grant can do. He can also play off guard alongside Burke or Exum. Those three, plus Rodney Hood and Alec Burks, will give Utah a deep, versatile backcourt.
13. Phoenix Suns (0.6%): Frank Kaminsky, F/C Wisconsin (7-0, 234) Age: 22
With Brandon Wright as a free agent, the only center on the Suns roster is Alex Len, who has shown a ton of promise but has been injured a lot. Frank Kaminsky isn't a traditional center and may be better suited as at the 4, but he should be able to find time at both positions. The Suns offense would really benefit from Kaminsky's shooting ability, something they lost when Channing Frye left, and he can really compliment Len and Markieff Morris playing alongside either. Kaminsky is ready to come in right away and contribute, which will appeal to the Suns who wil want to wash away the mess that was last season quickly.
14. Oklahoma City Thunder (0.5%): Sam Dekker, F Wisconsin (6-9, 220) Age: 20
Kaminsky, Oubre, or Grant would be a great fit in OKC but with all of them off the board they may have to take a chance on a less certain prospect. Dekker is best suited as a stretch-4 who can take bigger players off the dribble to the rim, where he shot a very impressive 75% last season. The Thunder have a glut of bigs, but none quite like Dekker who would have the added bonus of allowing cross-matches with Durant at the 4. He is also a smart, high character, hard working player who would fit nicely into OKC's roster.
15. Atlanta Hawks (from Brooklyn): Kevon Looney, PF UCLA (6-9, 220) Age: 19
Paul Millsap and Elton Brand are free agents, and while the latter is likely to retire, the former could make a lot of money on the open market, leaving his future in Atlanta in doubt. Kevon Looney is developing a 3-point shot, something Atlanta covets, and is an outstanding offensive rebounder. I am not as bullish as some on his game, but Atlanta drafted a similar player last season, Adreian Payne and subsequently traded him. The biggest difference? Looney is a whooping five years younger than Payne.
16. Boston Celtics: Bobby Portis, PF Arkansas (6-11, 242) Age: 20
Brandon Bass is a free agent and I don't know if Boston will be looking to re-sign a 29 year-old undersized power forward. But even if they do, depth will be needed behind him as Jonas Jerebko is also a free agent. Bobby Portis is a well-rounded power forward with great size and a 7-1+ wingspan. He can score from anywhere inside the arc and has even started making college 3s. Defensively he isn't a dominant shot blocker, but he is smart, positions himself well, and plays hard. Portis is unlikely to be a star but is even more unlikely to be a bust. As a starter I could see him averaging 12 and 8 with good defense and rebounding.
17. Milwaukee Bucks: Devin Booker, SG Kentucky (6-6, 206) Age: 18
The Bucks were seventh in 3P% last season, but just twenty-sixth in attempts, so even if Khris Middleton is re-signed they'll be looking to upgrade their perimeter shooting in the offseason. The questions about Devin Booker surround what else he can do besides shoot, not his shooting. Put him on the floor and he will make 3s and space the floor. Whether he becomes more than just a 3-point specialist will depend on his ability to defend and put the ball on the floor, but the shooting will definitely play.
18. Houston Rockets (from New Orleans): Tyler Harvey, SG Eastern Washington (6-4, 185) Age: 21
This would be a surprise, and I don't value Harvey this highly, but the Rockets' needs at point guard are unique and Harvey would be a great fit. With James Harden to play as the de facto point guard, Houston really just needs someone who can make shots and play a little defense. Harvey should be able to be at least average vs. other point guards, but man can he shoot. Any situation, off the dribble, spotting up, pull ups, does not matter. Harvey will get comped to a poor-man's Steph Curry, so I could see him rising a lot before the draft, even if there are some flaws, many of which would masked by Houston's personnel.
19. Washington Wizards: Cameron Payne, PG Murray State (6-2, 180) Age: 20
John Wall is clearly the Wizards' best player and one of the best point guards in the league, so he will be on the court for the majority of the minutes at point guard, but when he is on the bench, you want a better option than Ramon Sessions. Cameron Payne can legitimately play point guard, is a good shooter, and can score enough that he could play alongside Wall at times, who has the size to guard 2s. Payne likely won't be a star, but as a role player he can provide a ton of value.
20. Toronto Raptors: Christian Wood, PF UNLV (6-10, 220) Age: 19
Amir Johnson has struggled this season and has likely played his last game in Toronto, ditto for Tyler Hansbrough, which would leave Patrick Patterson as the lone power forward on the roster. Christian Wood is talented enough to go 8 pick higher and would be great value here. Wood is athletic with a 7-2 wingspan, and a good mid-range shooter who can be dominant on the glass while also blocking shots a high rate (2.6 a game as a Sophomore). Wood has the upside to be an above-average starter with a high likelihood to be at least a bench option.
21. Dallas Mavericks: Tyus Jones, PG Duke (6-1, 190) Age: 18
The Mavericks could be losing up to 11 players in free agency, so they could really go any direction here. I think though, that finding the right point guard will be crucial because of how Dallas likes to run their free-wheeling offense. Tyus Jones would be a great fit because he can shoot from 3, knows how to use screens, and will almost always make the correct decision. Dallas may not be willing to hand over the keys of their roster to an 18 year-old rookie, but even if he is just a back-up, Jones will be a contributor offensively for a long time.
22. Chicago Bulls: R.J. Hunter, SG Georgia State (6-6, 190) Age: 21
While Jimmy Butler is very to re-sign in Chicago, Mike Dunleavey is not, so adding another perimeter scorer to go with Butler and Doug McDermott should be a priority in free agency or the draft. R.J. Hunter is a better shooter than his numbers suggest last season and should flourish as a role player because he won't command nearly the defensive attention he did in college. Hunter is also decent creating off the dribble and can run pick-and-roll, a nice plus to go with his shooting ability.
23. Portland Trailblazers: Montrezl Harrell, PF Louisville (6-8, 240) Age: 21
LaMarcus Aldridge is a free agent this summer, but even if he re-signs Portland's only other power forward is Joel Freeland. Montrezl Harrell is ideally suited to be a backup big man because he plays with incredibly, often reckless, energy. Put him in the game for 15-20 minutes a night and let him out-work opponents on the glass an in transition. The Blazers' bench has long been a problem and Harrell would be a step in the right direction.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers: Delon Wright, PG Utah (6-5, 190) Age: 22
The Cavs are in "win while we have LeBron" mode so I doubt they'll be interested in any projects. Deron Wright is basically what he will be right now and good enough to be a rotation player on a playoff team. Many times last season he was the best player on to floor without scoring very much. He is an excellent defender who can guard multiple positions and play point guard on offense. He'll be 23 next season, but as a backup point guard it would be hard to find a more impactful, versatile player.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Robert Upshaw, C Washington (7-0, 250) Age: 21
With both Marc Gasol and Kosta Koufos likely to be highly sought-after free agents this summer, the center position in Memphis is in a state of flux and therefore some depth/insurance through the draft would be welcome. Robert Upshaw is a monster defensive player who blocked an insane 7.2 blocks per 40 last season before being kicked off the team. He doesn't seem to be a bad kid, just needs to grow up a bit, something Memphis is in a great position to do because of the leadership and reformed knuckleheads on their team. Even if Gasol re-signs, Koufos is likely gone and Upshaw can replace his defense at least as the Grizzlies back-up center.
26. San Antonio Spurs: Anthony Brown, G/F Stanford (6-6, 215) Age: 22
It will be interesting to see if Danny Green, a free agent this summer, gets any huge offers. My guess: he does and the Spurs don't overpay to keep him. If he does leave, the Spurs can possibly replace his production through the draft with a different color. Anthony Brown is an excellent perimeter defender, though not as disruptive as Green and should be a 40% 3-point shooter. He is also an unselfish player and Willing passer who should flourish in San Antonio's offense. Brown's upside is limited because of his age, but he has the skillset to stick as a role player in the NBA for a long time.
27. Los Angeles Lakers (from Houston): George de Paula Lucas, PG Pinheiros (6-6, 202) Age: 18
The Lakers could really use a potential rotation player with this pick, but they will not want to be taking on any more guaranteed contracts besides the #4 overall pick because of their dreams of a quick rebuild through free agency. George Lucas is the best draft-and-stash prospect available and he has a decent chance of making it to the NBA in a couple of years. Lucas is a big point guard who is still learning th position but has tremendous upside, particularly defensively where he can put his 7-foot wingspan to good use.
28. Boston Celtics (from L.A. Clippers): Dakari Johnson, C Kentucky (7-0, 255) Age: 19
The Celtics frontcourt lacks both physicality and any kind of consistent post scorer. Kelly Olynyk is better on the perimeter, Jared Sullinger is undersized and always hurt, Tyler Zeller isn't a post up play, while Brandon Bass is a free agent. Like Bobby Portis, Dakari Johnson isn't the athletic shotblocker they desperately need, but he is big enough to clog the paint while also rebounding and scoring around the basket. He is a throwback, low post center and his range is "paint" but he'll compliment Zeller nicely and give Boston a true center to use, probably off the bench.
29. Brooklyn Nets (from Atlanta): Cliff Alexander, PF Kansas (6-8, 240) Age: 19
The Nets are still paying for the Joe Johnson trade, losing out on the #15 pick and ending up near the bottom of the first. Thad Young is likely to elect free agency and sign elsewhere, while Mirza Teletovic is a restricted free agent, leaving only second round pick Cory Jefferson as a true power forward on the roster. Cliff Alexander is physically and athletically ready for the NBA, but is limited offensively. He will do the dirty work alongside Brook Lopez that Lopez struggles with, like rebounding and defending. Alexander is probably just a role player, but that is a good find at this point in the draft.
30. Golden State Warriors: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF Arizona (6-7, 220) Age: 20
While most people see Golden State as an explosive offensive team first, they actually had the best defense in the league. One of the big reasons they were so successful is that their perimeter defenders were so versatile: Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, Andre Igoudala, and Klay Thompson can all guard multiple positions at average or better rates. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is a special wing defender to add depth and insurance of both injury and free agency. Hollis-Jefferson isn't much of a shooter, but that won't matter much with all of the Warriors offensive options. Dakari Johnson or Robert Upshaw to backup Andrew Bogut is another possibility if they make it to this point.
Agree or disagree? Let me know!
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Agree or disagree? Let me know!
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Saturday, June 28, 2014
Orlando Magic Draft Preview
The Magic surprised a lot of people by drafting Gordon ahead of Dante Exum, Julius Randle, and Noah Vonleh, but he really does fit their MO for drafting high-effort defensive minded players who are passionate about playing basketball, something GM Rob Hennigan has stated he looks for. Gordon is an elite athlete who should be able to guard multiple positions at a high level while also rebounding the ball well, scoring around the basket, and appearing on SportsCenter every night. Gordon has a lot to do on offense, particularly shooting, but he has terrific instincts and passing ability that will help him at least break even on that end. Gordon should be the starting power forward and play the bulk of the minutes there from day one in Orlando.
10. Elfrid Payton, PG Louisana-Lafayette Jr. (6-4, 185)
Payton is basically a lesser known version of Marcus Smart, a big point guard with top defensive ability, an ability to drive, draw fouls, and distribute, as well as a poor jumpshot. He's only 12 days older than Smart also. For Orlando, he's yet another gritty defender who plays his tail off on both ends of the court to go with Gordon and last years top pick Victor Oladipo. All three are defense first players (though Payton is a very good offensive player as well), so it will be up to the Magic to find some more young, offensive minded players to fill in the scoring gaps for this team down the line. While Jameer Nelson is still with the team, there is no need for him to be. Orlando needs to trade him or buy him out so Payton can play and develop as much as possible.
56. Roy Devyn Marble, SG Iowa Sr. (6-7, 192)
Marble is an excellent all-around basketball player who can do many things on the offensive end, including handle the ball, pass, and he even has a nice looking stroke, though the results aren't always what you'd like to see. Marble has nice size for a two guard and is a good athlete, what is really holding him back is a lack of any truly above-average skill. I think he could make the Magic (he is better than Doron Lamb) but unless his shooting improves, Marble will likely never become a consistent contributor.
Current Lineup
PG: Elfrid Payton/Jameer Nelson
SG: Victor Oladipo/Evan Founier/Roy Devyn Marble
SF: Tobias Harris/Maurice Harkless
PF: Aaron Gordon/Jason Maxiell/Andrew Nicholson
Saturday, June 29, 2013
Draft Review: Orlando Magic
Victor Oladipo, SG Indiana (2)
The Magic are trying to completely revamp their roster and turn around the culture brought about by players like Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu. Victor Oladipo is the opposite of those players, a hardworking, high motor player who brings it every night and works daily to get better. He is a versatile defender and efficient scorer who needs some polish on that end but could be special on both ends of the floor. This pick also increases the chances Arron Afflalo is traded.
Second Round
Romero Osby, PF Oklahoma (51)
A pick 51, it's hard to argue with any pick, especially for the Magic who already have young talent up and down their roster. Romero Osby is undersized and no explosive, but he is tough and plays hard. He'll likely be an end of the bench guy and summer league player, but he will bring toughness to Orlando practices.
Projected Rotation
PG: Jameer Nelson/Beno Udrih
SG: Arron Afflalo/Victor Oladipo
SF: Tobias Harris/Maurice Harkless
PF: Glen Davis/Andrew Nicholson
C: Nikola Vucevic/Kyle O'Quinn
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
What Will The Magic Do at #2?
The Magic have a promising young center in Nikola Vucevic, but offensively he plays more like a power forward, so Noel will fit nicely on that end. Defensively Noel can guard power forwards, leaving the bigger Vucevic to guard centers for now. It may not seem like an ideal fit at first glance, but it actually works really well and could give the Magic a potentially dominant frontline for years to come.
Ben McLemore, SG Kansas Fr. (6-5, 189)
Whether or not the Magic trade Arron Afflalo, they still need depth in the backcourt as well as shooting, something that McLemore can certainly provide and more. In today's NBA, you can play guys like McLemore and Afflalo at the 3 for at least part of the time, so it wouldn't limit the Magic's flexibility both offensively and defensively.
Victor Oladipo, SG Indiana Jr. (6-4, 213)
Similar to McLemore, Victor Oladipo would provide depth for the Magic in the backcourt while being groomed as Afflalo's replacement. Oladipo isn't the scorer that McLemore is, but he is a better defender, and the best in the draft at locking down on the perimeter. While Afflalo's defense has slipped somewhat, he is still very good and would make a lethal combo with Oladipo.
Trey Burke, PG Michigan So. (6-1, 187)
This is seemingly becoming more and more of a longshot as Burke is falling, but it is still a possibility because Jameer Nelson is getting older and declining. Burke is a polished offensive point guard who could likely step in from day one and start for the Magic is they happen to trade Nelson. I doubt the Magic take him otherwise though, as Nelson has some years left on his contract.
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