After an offseason full of player movement, the start of the season means new opportunities for many players across the league. These five players not only have bigger roles waiting for them, but also the skills to take advantage and break out.
Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
This is the obvious one, Rodney Hood is sure to be all over breakout/most important player lists this preseason; it's clear that Hood needs to take a step forward for the Jazz to return to the playoffs. With Gordon Heyward gone, Hood is Utah's top remaining perimeter scorer and will be there go-to scoring option. It is important to note that Utah's egalitarian offense system won't feature a lot of iso situations, but no offense can rely completely on ball+player movement, there will plenty of times that individual shot creation will be required and Hood will probably lead the team in such opportunities. He won't replace Heyward 1-to-1, the Jazz will count on Ricky Rubio's passing, a Derrick Favors/Alec Burks health bounce-back, and rookie Donovan Mitchell to fill the void, but Hood will be the biggest piece in a group effort. For and foremost, health will be crucial for Hood, who has two seasons playing less than 60 games sandwiched between a nearly complete season of 79 games. Assuming health, Hood will need to not only sustain what he has been good at in the past but also develop his game to become more of a primary offensive option. Hood's strengths are obvious, he is a very good shooter from deep (.371 from three point range) and at 6-8 he has no trouble getting his shot off, while his patience running pick-and-roll allows him to be effective off the dribble without the burst normally associated with such actions. Where Hood needs to get better is inside the arc; his career fee throw rate (.196) and 2-point percentage are (.458) are well below average. Lacking that burst, Hood will need to hone his craft, using his size to finish over shorter players and become more active off the ball, getting easy shots at the basket via cuts and backscreens. Playing with more than willing passers like Rubio and Joe Ingles should allow Hood to get some easier looks, particularly on the break. Utah isn't a very fast-paced team (though that might change with Rubio) by Gordon Heyward excelled at leaking out ahead of the pack, something Hood should attempt to emulate. It's not that Hood is a lazy player by any means, but he can be somewhat low energy and not assertive hunting his own shot, which is exactly what the Jazz need of him. Also, in a contract year, Hood could really help his own financial situation with a big year, or tank it with a bad one.
Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
The Celtics traded away their two top perimeter defenders and replaced them with a decidedly bad defender (Kyrie Irving), an okay one (Marcus Morris) and a very good one (Gordon Heyward). Heyward and Morris should at least hold serve replacing Jae Crowder but Avery Bradley is a different story. Irving will slot into Isaiah Thomas' role as resident defensive sieve but without Bradley there to match-up on the opposing point guard, that duty will fall in crucial moments on Marcus Smart, who is up to the task on that end of the floor. Whether or not he can replace Bradley's offensive contributions is more of an open question. Smart's size, strength, and tenacity make him one of best, most versatile defender in the league, able to battle bigger players in the post while pestering on the perimeter with quick feet and hands. Despite his willingness to fire away 4+ three-pointers a game, Smart is a terrible three-point shooter (.291 career) and his .422 percentage on two-point shots is just as putrid (compare that with Avery Bradley's .390 and .504 marks, respectively, last season). At this point, defenses have little to fear by leaving him wide open outside the arc, something that will really hurt the Celtics in crunch time, which is exactly when they will need him on the floor. So how can he be successful? In his prime, Tony Allen couldn't shoot and would routinely flub wide-open layups, yet was a successful player for years. Obviously being one of the best perimeter defenders in NBA history helped (Smart is excellent but he isn't quite Allen's level) but that didn't sort out his offense. On that end, Allen was always hunting for easy shots for himself, crashing the glass, sprinting in transition, and was such a threat to cut to the basket that defenses had to pay attention to him even if he wasn't going to shoot. That's the template use for his success, work as hard off the ball offensively as he does on defense. And Smart, while still a really bad shooter, can get hot at times which means that he can take a three from time to time, when wide open, he just shouldn't be so shot happy from there. Like Hood, Smart is also in a contract year and has some financial incentive to be better than he has been.
Allen Crabbe, Brooklyn Nets
With Portland, Crabbe played a crucial role in the Blazers offensive when he was on the floor, spacing the floor for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, courtesy of a .444 shooting percentage from behind the arc. In Brooklyn, Crabbe will be performing a similar task for D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin. However, Russell and Lin are lower usage players than Lillard and McCollum, which should give Crabbe a chance to take even more three than the 3.8 he attempted per game last season. 73 players attemped more threes than Crabbe last season. As a member of the Nets last season, Bojan Bogdanovic attempted 5 threes a game, if Crabbe takes that many or more a game (last season he was at 3.8) and continues to make 40%+ from three, a breakout offensive performance is very possible. Brooklyn took the third most threes last season (more than Golden State believe it or not) and will look to shoot even more this season, a plan that suits Crabbe just fine. The other factor here is that Brooklyn has every incentive to play Crabbe starters minutes, as they just used much of their copious cap space in order to acquire him, and had attempted to get him in the past. More opportunities is often all that it takes for a NBA player to have breakout campaign.
Jerami Grant, Oklahoma City
As of now, the Thunder's backup center is Dakari Johnson, who might not even make the roster. Unless the Thunder find a veteran big man, they'll have to find someone to backup Steven Adams. While a 6-8, 210 pound forward like Jerami Grant might not seem like the prime option, but Grant's defensive potential as someone who can switch and block shots, is actually ideal for playing center in the modern NBA, especially against backup centers who aren't going to kill him in the post. In less advantageous matchups, say against a lumbering post scorer like Jahlil Okafor, Grant would be just as much of a matchup problem because of his ability to make straight line drives and passably shoot from three, skills that will play up as a center. Last season, Grant made .371 of his 144 three-point attempts, something he will look to keep up in his first full year with the Thunder, if not at that level at least at a passable 33-35%, which would be very good if he is playing at center. Likewise, Grant isn't a superb driver but is quick for his size and is a vicious finisher when he gets to the rim. As a backup center, playing with some combination of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, Grant will be asked to space the floor, attack closeouts, and finish lobs, all things he has shown the ability to do in the past. Defensively, Grant is one of the elite shot blockers in the NBA, finishing 11th in the NBA in block percentage (The Greek Freak is the only non-center ahead of him) so Grant has part of the big man skills down pat, though he will drastically need to improve as a rebounder in order to make it work at center. His 7.4 defensive rebound would rank second to last season among centers, besting only 35 year old, ground-bound Boris Diaw. Part of that poor number is the amount of time Grant spent playing small forward (and playing with high level rebounders that grabbed the boards instead) but no doubt he must improve to at least league average on the glass, an accomplishment that seems possible given his length and leaping ability. If Grant can stay a solid shooter and top level defender, while also improving his rebounding, a breakthrough to becoming one of the better backups in the NBA is definitely possible.
Norman Powell, Toronto Raptors
The Raptors roster has changed quite a bit over that last year, with players coming and going. Of the top ten per game minute getters last season, half of them are gone and their replacements are mostly unproven players. On the wing, the Raptors have presumed starters DeMar DeRozan and CJ Miles, then injured rookie OG Anunoby, still raw Bruno Caboclo, and multiple time castoff KJ McDaniels. These are the players Norman Powell is competing with for minutes. In fact it can be argued that Powell is the second best wing on the roster, ahead of Miles. Assuming there are 96 minutes available on the wing, DeRozan will take about 36 of them, leaving 60 minutes to be divided up among the rest. Whether it be from 25 to 30 minutes a game, Powell is sure to see a boost in minutes from the 18 a game he averaged last season. And honestly, as far as talent is concerned, playing time may be all that Powell needs to break out. Despite being relatively short for a wing, Powell is strongly built and has long arms to challenge bigger, stronger players defensively. Offensively, his jumper could stand to be more consistent, he is somewhat streaky, but where Powell stands out is his ability to beat defenders off the dribble and make plays going towards the basket. Powell took 41% of his shots withing 0-3 feet of the basket and made an excellent .606% of those shots. Given his ability defensively and a solid outside stroke, Powell should be the first player off the bench in Toronto, if not the starter by season's end.
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Showing posts with label Boston Celtics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston Celtics. Show all posts
Sunday, October 8, 2017
Thursday, June 29, 2017
Boston Celtics Draft Review
Current Roster
PG: Isaiah Thomas/Terry Rozier/Demetrius Jackson/Kadeem Allen
SG: Avery Bradley/Marcus Smart/Jabari Bird
SF: Jae Crowder/Jaylen Brown/Jayson Tatum/Semi Ojeleye
PF: -
C: Al Horford/Jordan Mickey/Tyler Zeller
2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
G Gerald Green
F Jonas Jerebko
F Amir Johnson
G James Young
Restricted
C Kelly Olynyk
Who They Drafted
1-3 Jayson Tatum, SF/PF Duke
2-37 Semi Ojeleye, SF/PF SMU
2-53 Kadeem Allen, PG Arizona
2-56 Jabari Bird, SG California
After trading down from number 1, the Celtics drafted Jayson Tatum, who apparently they wanted at number 1 too (sure...). Tatum has a high upside and decent floor offensively, mostly because of his polished mid-range game. He has excellent footwork and touch on his mid-range shots, scoring in classic iso-style, by holding the ball, slowing it down and using many advanced moves to create space for his jumper. Tatum also likes to work in the post, bullying smaller opponents to get to his turnaround jumpshot. While able to get all the way to the rim when he has an opening, that isn't a huge part of his game, and when he gets there Tatum wasn't a great finisher anyways and will need to improve significantly in that area. While he shot the ball okay from three his one year at Duke (.342%) he is definitely more comfortable shooting from closer in and will need to show he can shoot from the further back NBA line. He can get a little myopic offensively and slow down an offensive flow, though when he applies himself he can be a good passer. Tatum's game is a throwback to the last decade of the NBA and not really a tremendous fit in the modern NBA, however his ability to go out and get a bucket has value, even if he will really need to take steps to become an efficient scorer. The biggest question for Tatum, and one that will be crucial for his time with the Celtics, is whether or not he can play power forward in more than just spot minutes in the NBA. While he has the height and reach of a combo big, he will need to get stronger and play with a higher intensity level. On the wing, Tatum could become an average defender, though he isn't particularly physically overwhelming. It will be important for Tatum to play the 4 for the Celtics not only because it will open up their log-jam on the wing a little more but also because he is far more likely to have success playing there. Tatum played at the 4 the majority of the time at Duke, where he almost always had the athletic advantage and still wasn't dominant, and as we've seen with Justise Winslow and Brandon Ingram, playing the 3 in the NBA is a lot tougher than the 4 in college.
Despite the fact that they already have 3/4s Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, and Tatum on the roster, plus wanting to acquire Paul George and Gordon Heyward, not to mention Al Horford who is probably best at power forward, the Celtics found the value in the second round of Semi Ojeleye (who many thought would go in the first round) too much to pass up. Ojeleye has an extremely strong frame and explosive athletic ability, good enough that he should be able to guard bigs, wings, and guards, the kind of versatility and switching ability that is ideal of modern NBA defenses. One concern with his defense is that for all of his athletic ability, Ojeyele was not a productive defender, averaging just a half a block and steal per 40 minutes. Also his rebounding was very poor even for a small forward (11.8 rebound rate, which would rank 48th among NBA small forwards last season) and downright awful for a power forward. Considering the Celtics were one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the NBA last season, Ojeleye's inability to help isn't ideal. Offensively, Ojeleye's best weapon is his jumper, though he can make plays in transition and off the ball due to his athletic ability. Ojeleye should be a solid role player for the Celtics (though he probably won't play much) because he can guard multiple positions and shoot so well, however his lack of rebounding and impact defensive ability probably cap his upside to backup.
With their last two picks, the Celtics took two Seniors who are unlikely to ever play for them but will probably fill out their G-League roster. Already 24, Arizona guard Kadeem Allen is one of the best guard defenders in college last season, a hardnosed, highly competitive defender that loves to get up and pressure opponents. He also is a solid shooter and can make some plays off the dribble, however he lacks the playmaking ability to be a lead guard and doesn't have the size to play anything else. Allen could be a guard in the Patrick Beverley mold if everything works out just right.
Their other draft pick was Jabari Bird, a highly recruited wing that never lived up to expectations and is frankly a bizarre selection, though Bird is a good (not great) shooter, he doesn't really do much else.
What They Need Going Forward
The Celtics are fishing for the best available talent this summer, and that means Gordon Heyward, Blake Griffin, and Paul George. Though it hasn't been mentioned as often as an option, now that Chris Paul has left the Clippers and Blake Griffin may be on the way out, the Clippers will likely be willing to deal DeAndre Jordan, who would really fix a lot of the Celtics problems and could turn their defense into a monster, especially if paired with Heyward or George on the wing. If, however unlikely, they are unable to land anyone at all, then it makes the most sense for them to keep their power dry and try again at the trade deadline and next summer.
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
PG: Isaiah Thomas/Terry Rozier/Demetrius Jackson/Kadeem Allen
SG: Avery Bradley/Marcus Smart/Jabari Bird
SF: Jae Crowder/Jaylen Brown/Jayson Tatum/Semi Ojeleye
PF: -
C: Al Horford/Jordan Mickey/Tyler Zeller
2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
G Gerald Green
F Jonas Jerebko
F Amir Johnson
G James Young
Restricted
C Kelly Olynyk
Who They Drafted
1-3 Jayson Tatum, SF/PF Duke
2-37 Semi Ojeleye, SF/PF SMU
2-53 Kadeem Allen, PG Arizona
2-56 Jabari Bird, SG California
After trading down from number 1, the Celtics drafted Jayson Tatum, who apparently they wanted at number 1 too (sure...). Tatum has a high upside and decent floor offensively, mostly because of his polished mid-range game. He has excellent footwork and touch on his mid-range shots, scoring in classic iso-style, by holding the ball, slowing it down and using many advanced moves to create space for his jumper. Tatum also likes to work in the post, bullying smaller opponents to get to his turnaround jumpshot. While able to get all the way to the rim when he has an opening, that isn't a huge part of his game, and when he gets there Tatum wasn't a great finisher anyways and will need to improve significantly in that area. While he shot the ball okay from three his one year at Duke (.342%) he is definitely more comfortable shooting from closer in and will need to show he can shoot from the further back NBA line. He can get a little myopic offensively and slow down an offensive flow, though when he applies himself he can be a good passer. Tatum's game is a throwback to the last decade of the NBA and not really a tremendous fit in the modern NBA, however his ability to go out and get a bucket has value, even if he will really need to take steps to become an efficient scorer. The biggest question for Tatum, and one that will be crucial for his time with the Celtics, is whether or not he can play power forward in more than just spot minutes in the NBA. While he has the height and reach of a combo big, he will need to get stronger and play with a higher intensity level. On the wing, Tatum could become an average defender, though he isn't particularly physically overwhelming. It will be important for Tatum to play the 4 for the Celtics not only because it will open up their log-jam on the wing a little more but also because he is far more likely to have success playing there. Tatum played at the 4 the majority of the time at Duke, where he almost always had the athletic advantage and still wasn't dominant, and as we've seen with Justise Winslow and Brandon Ingram, playing the 3 in the NBA is a lot tougher than the 4 in college.
Despite the fact that they already have 3/4s Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, and Tatum on the roster, plus wanting to acquire Paul George and Gordon Heyward, not to mention Al Horford who is probably best at power forward, the Celtics found the value in the second round of Semi Ojeleye (who many thought would go in the first round) too much to pass up. Ojeleye has an extremely strong frame and explosive athletic ability, good enough that he should be able to guard bigs, wings, and guards, the kind of versatility and switching ability that is ideal of modern NBA defenses. One concern with his defense is that for all of his athletic ability, Ojeyele was not a productive defender, averaging just a half a block and steal per 40 minutes. Also his rebounding was very poor even for a small forward (11.8 rebound rate, which would rank 48th among NBA small forwards last season) and downright awful for a power forward. Considering the Celtics were one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the NBA last season, Ojeleye's inability to help isn't ideal. Offensively, Ojeleye's best weapon is his jumper, though he can make plays in transition and off the ball due to his athletic ability. Ojeleye should be a solid role player for the Celtics (though he probably won't play much) because he can guard multiple positions and shoot so well, however his lack of rebounding and impact defensive ability probably cap his upside to backup.
With their last two picks, the Celtics took two Seniors who are unlikely to ever play for them but will probably fill out their G-League roster. Already 24, Arizona guard Kadeem Allen is one of the best guard defenders in college last season, a hardnosed, highly competitive defender that loves to get up and pressure opponents. He also is a solid shooter and can make some plays off the dribble, however he lacks the playmaking ability to be a lead guard and doesn't have the size to play anything else. Allen could be a guard in the Patrick Beverley mold if everything works out just right.
Their other draft pick was Jabari Bird, a highly recruited wing that never lived up to expectations and is frankly a bizarre selection, though Bird is a good (not great) shooter, he doesn't really do much else.
What They Need Going Forward
The Celtics are fishing for the best available talent this summer, and that means Gordon Heyward, Blake Griffin, and Paul George. Though it hasn't been mentioned as often as an option, now that Chris Paul has left the Clippers and Blake Griffin may be on the way out, the Clippers will likely be willing to deal DeAndre Jordan, who would really fix a lot of the Celtics problems and could turn their defense into a monster, especially if paired with Heyward or George on the wing. If, however unlikely, they are unable to land anyone at all, then it makes the most sense for them to keep their power dry and try again at the trade deadline and next summer.
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Friday, May 19, 2017
2017 NBA Draft: First Lottery Mock Draft
We finally know the official draft order, which means mock drafts start to make a little more sense. The deadline for college players to return to school (those without an agent at least) is still to come, but there are hardly any potential first round picks that aren't 100% in the draft.
01. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn): Markelle Fultz, PG Washington (6-4, 195)
Barring the completely unexpected happening and the Celtics going off script, Markelle Fultz will be the top pick in the draft, as he should. The real question is what the Celtics do with Fultz and the rest of their roster. You have to think, even if it makes sense, they can't trade Isaiah Thomas, nor does it seem tenable to go into the year trying to find time for Fultz, Thomas, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, and Terry Rozier, all of whom are 6-4 or shorter. Who do they trade? Does it happen on draft night? Time will tell, though my money is on Bradley and Rozier.
02. Los Angeles Lakers: Lonzo Ball, PG UCLA (6-6, 190)
By landing the second pick in the lottery, the Lakers get what they want and Lonzo Ball and his camp get what they want. The Lakers want a marketable player and the Balls wanted to be in a big market, that just happens to be close to home. Ball and D'Angelo Russell are tenuous fit as a backcourt, as both want the ball in their hands and are defensively challanged. Does Russell get traded? It is a distinct possibility, especially with Paul George potentially on the market and wanting to play in LA.
03. Philadelphia 76ers (from Sacramento): Malik Monk, SG Kentucky (6-3, 200)
The Sixers hold the key to the rest of the draft, whatever direction they go in will dictate how the rest of the top ten shakes out. Any of the wings, Jackson, Tatum, or Isaac would make sense from a value standpoint, though each poses potential fit problems. Malik Monk might not be as highly regarded in draft circles, but he couldn't be a better fit for the Sixers, and their non-process regime might be looking to complete their project soon rather than later and make a run for the playoffs.
04. Phoenix Suns: Josh Jackson, SG/SF Kansas (6-8, 207)
Presumably, the Suns will take whichever of the forwards, between Jackson, Tatum, and Isaac that they like best and that is still available when they pick. Jackson and Isaac seem like better fits than Tatum, and since Jackson is the higher regarded prospect, he makes the most sense as the pick. The Suns were a very poor defensive team last season, with one of the main culprits being their defensive limitations on the perimeter. Jackson, due to high high motor and athletic ability, has the potential to be an excellent defender, though his offensive fit is more questionable, as is his jumpshot.
05. Sacramento Kings (from Philadelphia): Jayson Tatum, SF/PF Duke (6-8, 205)
After finally moving on from DeMarcus Cousins, the Kings have two top ten picks to start their rebuild and a pretty bare cupboard already on the roster. Though there is some question of just how efficient he can be, many believe Tatum can be a top option on offense and an a solid defender. Due to their lack of players, the Kings could really go in any direction, with point guard being the main one they should consider. However, with two top ten picks and five potential lottery point guards, to me it makes more sense to bet on one of them falling to ten and drafting the best prospect available.
06. Orlando Magic: Dennis Smith Jr, PG North Carolina State (6-3, 195)
The Magic are in a tough spot because they need a point guard, but the prospect that most consider to be third best at that position, De'Aaron Fox, is far too similar to Elfrid Payton, the last point guard they invested a top ten pick in and a player who, while he has his strengths, isn't a starting level player and somewhat of a bust based on where he was drafted, so far at least. Dennis Smith Jr has as much talent and potential as anyone in the draft, though his effort has waxed and waned, the ability is never a question. He is also a very different player from Fox and Payton, which might be enough to break a tie in Smith's favor.
07. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State (6-10, 210)
The Timberwolves and Jonathan Isaac are a match made in basketball heaven. One of the final pieces Minnesota needs is a versatile defensive forward who can guard multiple positions and protect the rim. Minnesota's variety of talented scorers will also help mitigate Isaac's main shortcoming, offensive confidence.
08. New York Knicks: De'Aaron Fox, PG Kentucky (6-3¼, 170)
For many, there are a top eight prospects in this draft before a drop off, which leaves the Knicks in a solid enough position to grab the last of the tier, regardless of their position, since the Knicks basically need everything besides a center/power forward (whatever the Knicks see him as). De'Aaron Fox isn't a prototypical triangle point guard (how sad is it that this is a consideration in 2017) because he doesn't shoot it all that well, but his energy, defense, athleticism, and passing all past the test of a solid point guard prospect, something the Knicks haven't had in ages.
09. Dallas Mavericks: Lauri Markkanen, PF/C Arizona (7-0, 230)
How picture perfect would this be? As Dirk Nowitzki enters his twilight years, he mentors another 7-foot shooter to be his heir. Markkanen is one of the best, most versatile shooters as a big man in ages and would be used perfectly by Rick Carlisle and fits really well with Nerlens Noel as a center that can cover a lot of ground a protect the rim, areas were Markkanen struggles.
01. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn): Markelle Fultz, PG Washington (6-4, 195)
Barring the completely unexpected happening and the Celtics going off script, Markelle Fultz will be the top pick in the draft, as he should. The real question is what the Celtics do with Fultz and the rest of their roster. You have to think, even if it makes sense, they can't trade Isaiah Thomas, nor does it seem tenable to go into the year trying to find time for Fultz, Thomas, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, and Terry Rozier, all of whom are 6-4 or shorter. Who do they trade? Does it happen on draft night? Time will tell, though my money is on Bradley and Rozier.
02. Los Angeles Lakers: Lonzo Ball, PG UCLA (6-6, 190)
By landing the second pick in the lottery, the Lakers get what they want and Lonzo Ball and his camp get what they want. The Lakers want a marketable player and the Balls wanted to be in a big market, that just happens to be close to home. Ball and D'Angelo Russell are tenuous fit as a backcourt, as both want the ball in their hands and are defensively challanged. Does Russell get traded? It is a distinct possibility, especially with Paul George potentially on the market and wanting to play in LA.
03. Philadelphia 76ers (from Sacramento): Malik Monk, SG Kentucky (6-3, 200)
The Sixers hold the key to the rest of the draft, whatever direction they go in will dictate how the rest of the top ten shakes out. Any of the wings, Jackson, Tatum, or Isaac would make sense from a value standpoint, though each poses potential fit problems. Malik Monk might not be as highly regarded in draft circles, but he couldn't be a better fit for the Sixers, and their non-process regime might be looking to complete their project soon rather than later and make a run for the playoffs.
04. Phoenix Suns: Josh Jackson, SG/SF Kansas (6-8, 207)
Presumably, the Suns will take whichever of the forwards, between Jackson, Tatum, and Isaac that they like best and that is still available when they pick. Jackson and Isaac seem like better fits than Tatum, and since Jackson is the higher regarded prospect, he makes the most sense as the pick. The Suns were a very poor defensive team last season, with one of the main culprits being their defensive limitations on the perimeter. Jackson, due to high high motor and athletic ability, has the potential to be an excellent defender, though his offensive fit is more questionable, as is his jumpshot.
05. Sacramento Kings (from Philadelphia): Jayson Tatum, SF/PF Duke (6-8, 205)
After finally moving on from DeMarcus Cousins, the Kings have two top ten picks to start their rebuild and a pretty bare cupboard already on the roster. Though there is some question of just how efficient he can be, many believe Tatum can be a top option on offense and an a solid defender. Due to their lack of players, the Kings could really go in any direction, with point guard being the main one they should consider. However, with two top ten picks and five potential lottery point guards, to me it makes more sense to bet on one of them falling to ten and drafting the best prospect available.
06. Orlando Magic: Dennis Smith Jr, PG North Carolina State (6-3, 195)
The Magic are in a tough spot because they need a point guard, but the prospect that most consider to be third best at that position, De'Aaron Fox, is far too similar to Elfrid Payton, the last point guard they invested a top ten pick in and a player who, while he has his strengths, isn't a starting level player and somewhat of a bust based on where he was drafted, so far at least. Dennis Smith Jr has as much talent and potential as anyone in the draft, though his effort has waxed and waned, the ability is never a question. He is also a very different player from Fox and Payton, which might be enough to break a tie in Smith's favor.
07. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State (6-10, 210)
The Timberwolves and Jonathan Isaac are a match made in basketball heaven. One of the final pieces Minnesota needs is a versatile defensive forward who can guard multiple positions and protect the rim. Minnesota's variety of talented scorers will also help mitigate Isaac's main shortcoming, offensive confidence.
08. New York Knicks: De'Aaron Fox, PG Kentucky (6-3¼, 170)
For many, there are a top eight prospects in this draft before a drop off, which leaves the Knicks in a solid enough position to grab the last of the tier, regardless of their position, since the Knicks basically need everything besides a center/power forward (whatever the Knicks see him as). De'Aaron Fox isn't a prototypical triangle point guard (how sad is it that this is a consideration in 2017) because he doesn't shoot it all that well, but his energy, defense, athleticism, and passing all past the test of a solid point guard prospect, something the Knicks haven't had in ages.
09. Dallas Mavericks: Lauri Markkanen, PF/C Arizona (7-0, 230)
How picture perfect would this be? As Dirk Nowitzki enters his twilight years, he mentors another 7-foot shooter to be his heir. Markkanen is one of the best, most versatile shooters as a big man in ages and would be used perfectly by Rick Carlisle and fits really well with Nerlens Noel as a center that can cover a lot of ground a protect the rim, areas were Markkanen struggles.
10. Sacramento Kings (from New Orleans): Frank Ntilikina, PG Strasbourg (6-5, 170)
This is the argument for passing on a point guard at five, there is a good chance that Frank Ntilikina will be available. And if not, you take another player, it's not like point guard is the only need the Kings have. Ntilikina is a bit of a mystery man for many, but he has been on radars for a while and has shown a lot of growth as a shooter to compliment his defense and pick-and-roll play.
11. Charlotte Hornets: Donovan Mitchell, SG Louisville (6-3, 211)
Barring a surprise choice, the Hornets are the in unenviable position of sitting right after a tier drop off, which means they will have a wide open field of prospects from which to choose. While UNC's Justin Jackson makes sense because of the Michael Jordan/Tarheel connection, he is fairly duplicative of Nic Batum. With excellent measurables (6-10 wingspan, 40½ vertical leap) to backup much improved play as a Sophomore, Donovan Mitchell is a nice fit for the Hornets because they really need another playmaker and defender.
12. Detroit Pistons: Luke Kennard, SG Duke (6-5½, 196)
The Pistons would probably love a point guard, but without one to take they can target some Kentavious Caldwell-Pope insurance and a shooter the Pistons need. The Pistons were a bottom five team in both three-point makes and percentage. Kennard went from afterthought (on his own team!) to lock first round pick over the course of his Sophomore season. Kennard is a knockdown shooter with a little bit of creativity to his game.
13. Denver Nuggets: OG Anunoby, SF/PF Indiana (6-7¾, 232)
With a ton of young players already, the Nuggets are able to take a chance on upside with risk. OG Anunoby has tremendous defensive potential and a very questionable offensive game and a knee injury. The Nuggets had a great offense and a really bad defense last season, a full strength Anunoby will help one and hurt the other, at least until he can shoot the ball better than the .311% he did last season.
14. Miami Heat: Zach Collins, C Gonzaga (7-1, 232)
While center isn't exactly a position of need for the Heat since they have Hassan Whiteside, he is a good value and will give them depth and, if Collins develops, as way to move on from Whiteside if need be. Collins' measurements weren't great at the combine, particularly his wingspan, but in college he showed he can block shots and score around the rim. Justin Jackson makes sense here as well because the Heat are set to potentially lose several of their forwards.
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This is the argument for passing on a point guard at five, there is a good chance that Frank Ntilikina will be available. And if not, you take another player, it's not like point guard is the only need the Kings have. Ntilikina is a bit of a mystery man for many, but he has been on radars for a while and has shown a lot of growth as a shooter to compliment his defense and pick-and-roll play.
11. Charlotte Hornets: Donovan Mitchell, SG Louisville (6-3, 211)
Barring a surprise choice, the Hornets are the in unenviable position of sitting right after a tier drop off, which means they will have a wide open field of prospects from which to choose. While UNC's Justin Jackson makes sense because of the Michael Jordan/Tarheel connection, he is fairly duplicative of Nic Batum. With excellent measurables (6-10 wingspan, 40½ vertical leap) to backup much improved play as a Sophomore, Donovan Mitchell is a nice fit for the Hornets because they really need another playmaker and defender.
12. Detroit Pistons: Luke Kennard, SG Duke (6-5½, 196)
The Pistons would probably love a point guard, but without one to take they can target some Kentavious Caldwell-Pope insurance and a shooter the Pistons need. The Pistons were a bottom five team in both three-point makes and percentage. Kennard went from afterthought (on his own team!) to lock first round pick over the course of his Sophomore season. Kennard is a knockdown shooter with a little bit of creativity to his game.
13. Denver Nuggets: OG Anunoby, SF/PF Indiana (6-7¾, 232)
With a ton of young players already, the Nuggets are able to take a chance on upside with risk. OG Anunoby has tremendous defensive potential and a very questionable offensive game and a knee injury. The Nuggets had a great offense and a really bad defense last season, a full strength Anunoby will help one and hurt the other, at least until he can shoot the ball better than the .311% he did last season.
14. Miami Heat: Zach Collins, C Gonzaga (7-1, 232)
While center isn't exactly a position of need for the Heat since they have Hassan Whiteside, he is a good value and will give them depth and, if Collins develops, as way to move on from Whiteside if need be. Collins' measurements weren't great at the combine, particularly his wingspan, but in college he showed he can block shots and score around the rim. Justin Jackson makes sense here as well because the Heat are set to potentially lose several of their forwards.
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Monday, February 27, 2017
2017 NBA Mock Draft (2/27)
Before the lottery, mock drafts are pretty silly but it at least gives an idea not only of team needs, but also how the strengths and weaknesses of the draft might play out. I used FiveThirtyEight's projection system (as of 2/24) to determine the draft order, though obviously some things will change by the end of the season, most notably Sacramento is likely to keep their draft pick (if it falls in the top 10) instead of sending it off the Chicago, after trading DeMarcus Cousins. Measurements are college team listed and age is on draft night.
01. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn Nets): Markelle Fultz, PG/SG Washington (6-4, 195) Age: 19
Fultz is the best prospect in the draft, whoever gets the first pick should draft him, no matter who they already have on the roster. For Boston, Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, and Avery Bradley are all becoming free agents in the next two years, so Fultz makes sense beyond that.
02. Phoenix Suns: Josh Jackson, SF Kansas (6-8, 207) Age: 20
The Suns have been searching for a two-way wing for years and they have several options in Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, and Jayson Tatum. Jackson is the better defender and fits next to the Suns' high usage guards. However, Tatum is a real option due to his sophisticated offensive game and based on the high upside style of drafting the Suns have pursed recently, Isaac is also a serious option.
03. Los Angeles Lakers: Lonzo Ball, PG UCLA (6-6, 190) Age: 19
Ball plays in LA, is from nearby Chino Hills, has the Lakers coveted "star" profile, and is a tall point guard that makes flashy plays ala new Lakers President of Basketball Ops Magic Johnson... If the Lakers keep their pick (it has to be top 3) and Ball is available when they select, it's hard to see a bigger lock than this.
04. Orlando Magic: Dennis Smith Jr, PG North Carolina (6-3, 195) Age: 19
Elfrid Payton has been improved, but it is going to be very hard to have a good offense with him as your starting point guard. Dennis Smith Jr. is a different story all together. Whatever Orlando's plan was in building their roster, it hasn't worked and it is time to move in a new direction, starting with Smith.
05. Philadelphia 76ers: Jayson Tatum, SF Duke (6-8, 205) Age: 19
While it might be tempting to put Malik Monk on the Sixers because of fit, but Tatum and Jonathan Isaac are better prospects and also fit needs for Philly. Tatum is good defender and a talented wing scorer who can shoot from three well enough to space the floor for Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
06. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State (6-10, 210) Age: 19
The Timberwolves defense has lacked a versatile forward on both ends of the court for a while now. Andrew Wiggins just hasn't gotten there as a defender and Gorgui Dieng is probably a better option as a backup center. Isaac is a really good fit with the rest of Minnesota's roster.
07. New York Knicks: Malik Monk, SG Kentucky (6-3, 200) Age: 19
The Knicks franchise has been a mess so far this season, but the good news is they will get a chance at finding another building block in the draft. Malik Monk is really up and down, but when he is up he can win a game for you. Sure to be an MSG fan favorite.
08. Sacramento Kings (from New Orleans): De'Aaron Fox, PG Kentucky (6-3, 187) Age: 19
With Darren Collison a free agent this summer and Ty Lawson no one's idea of a starting point guard, the Kings will need to find someone to run the team this summer. Fox isn't a shooting threat, but his passing and defense will be a solid fit in the next era of Kings' basketball.
09. Dallas Mavericks: Lauri Markkanen, PF/C Arizona (7-0, 230) Age: 19
It is probably a little too convenient that the tall European shooter is available to the Mavericks just as Dirk Nowitzki's career is winding down, but... It does make a lot of sense, as does Markkanen's fit next to new Dallas center Nerlens Noel.
10. Charlotte Hornets: Robert Williams, PF/C Texas A&M (6-9, 237) Age: 19
Two years ago the Hornets passed on a young big man from Texas and that didn't work out too well at all. Robert Williams' isn't the level of shooter (yet) that Myles Turner is, but he is a better athlete. Charlotte's backup big man issues have tanked their season and must be solved.
11. Chicago Bulls (from Sacramento): Frank Ntilikina, PG Strasbough (6-5, 170) Age: 18
The Bulls somehow have four point guards on their roster that can't shoot. Frank Ntilikina can not only shoot but he is an excellent pick-and-roll player and versatile defender. Note: this pick will belong to the Kings if it falls in the top ten, a likely outcome.)
12. Portland Trailblazers: Miles Bridges, SF/PF Michigan State (6-7, 230) Age: 19
This is the end of a tier of talent, but it also makes sense for Portland, who might look to get off the money owed wings Even Turner and Moe Harkless. Bridges is a combo forward who fits well next to Portland's guards because he is a spot-up shooter and rim finisher that can guard multiple positions but isn't a shot creator.
13. Milwaukee Bucks: Justin Patton, C Creighton (6-11, 215) Age: 20
Aside from Greg Monroe, the Bucks have several mediocre centers, and Monroe might not be long for Milwaukee. Justin Patton isn't a finished product, but his finishing skills, ability to run the floor, decent shooting touch, and mobility on defense would be a solid fit with the Bucks style of play.
14. Miami Heat: John Collins, PF/C Wake Forest (6-10, 218) Age: 19
The Heat are loaded down with wings and combo guards, but are surprisingly light in the big man spots. John Collins is a hyper-active, bouncy, super productive big man that would fit the Heat culture well.
15. Denver Nuggets: Harry Giles, PF/C Duke (6-10, 240) Age: 19
The Nuggets have so much young talent, they can afford to take a chance with their draft pick. Harry Giles and his knee injuries are definitely a risk, but there is also the reward of possibly a top 3 talent in the draft.
16. Detroit Pistons: Terrance Ferguson, SG Adelaide (6-7, 186) Age: 19
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is going to be one of the most sought after free agents this summer, and even though he is restricted there is a real chance Detroit could lose him. Terrance Ferguson has the KCP starter kit: top level athletic ability and a really nice stroke from the perimeter.
17. Chicago Bulls: Ivan Rabb, PF/C California (6-11, 220) Age: 20
With Taj Gibson traded, Christiano Felicio and Nikola Mirotic pending free agents and Bobby Portis not good yet, the Bulls are all of a sudden looking at a real deficiency in their frontcourt. Ivan Rabb is the kind of player the Bulls like to draft, accomplished and safe, but also lacking a big upside.
18. Indiana Pacers: Jarrett Allen, C Texas (6-11, 235) Age: 19
Well, the last time the Pacers drafted a big man from Texas it worked out, didn't it? Allen isn't quite the prospect that Myles Turner was, but he has tremendous measurables and would fit MUCH better as the Pacers backup center than Al Jefferson, who can't play fast like the Pacers want and tanks their defense.
19. Atlanta Hawks: Tyler Lydon, PF Syracuse (6-8, 205) Age: 21
Between Ryan Kelly and Ersan Ilyasova, it is clear the Hawks would like a stretch four for their system. Lydon is shooting .406% from three through 234 career attempts and he offers much more upside defensively than Kelly or Ilyasova.
20. Oklahoma City Thunder: Luke Kennard, SG Duke (6-5, 180) Age: 20
The Thunder clearly recognize their need for shooting, as they recently traded for Doug McDermott, but even with that addition, they need to add shooting going forward. Kennard is the kind of shooter they need and also makes smart plays, making up some for his physical deficiencies.
21. Toronto Raptors: T.J. Leaf, PF UCLA (6-10, 225) Age: 20
With Serge Ibaka and Patrick Patterson both entering free agency this year, the Raptors will need to shore up their frontcourt in preparation for losing one of them. Leaf has real warts defensively, but he is an active big man with a good outside shot.
22. Portland Trail Blazers (from Memphis): OG Anunoby, SF Indiana (6-8, 215) Age: 19
With three first round picks (at least for now, no doubt they will trade at least one) the Blazers can afford to take a chance, which OG Anunoby would definitely be since he is recovering from a knee injury and has regressed as as shooter, despite his immense defensive talent.
23. Utah Jazz: Justin Jackson, SF North Carolina (6-8, 193) Age: 22
Despite the fact there is no evidence pointing to Gordon Heyward's desire to leave Utah, (hey did you know Brad Stevens coached Heyward in college?) Utah will still need to have a backup plan if Heyward scoots. Jackson isn't Heyward in any way shape or form but he is a smart wing that can really shoot and moves well off the ball.
24. Brooklyn Nets (from Washington): Caleb Swanigan, PF/C Purdue (6-9, 260) Age: 20
The Nets need to make their draft picks count, so swinging for the fences makes sense with at least one of their two firsts this year. Caleb Swanigan isn't a traditional high upside pick because he isn't a great athlete, but he is very skilled and vacuums up rebounds.
25. Orlando Magic (from Los Angeles): Josh Hart, SG Villanova (6-5, 205) Age: 22
Playmaking and shooting have long been problems in Orlando, so Josh Hart fit the bill. Hart is a very good shooter and has really grown handling the ball and passing. His upside is low, but like Malcolm Brogdon last year, Hart looks like an early contributor.
26. Brooklyn Nets (from Boston): Shake Milton, PG/SG SMU (6-5, 195) Age: 20
The Net have had serious issues in their backcourt for the last two seasons and it has really hurt their ability to win games. Milton fits the Nets uptempo style of play and can really do a multitude of things on the court, including make plays, shoot, and defend multiple positions.
27. Los Angeles Lakers (from Houston): Donovan Mitchell, SG Louisville (6-3, 210) Age: 20
The Lakers need at least one guard that can defend. Mitchell can do that, as well as a tough off the dribble game and improved jumper.
28. Portland Trail Blazers (from Cleveland): Isaiah Hartenstein, C Zalgris (7-0, 225) Age: 19
Again, the Blazers are unlikely to use all three draft picks, but if they do they could look to draft-and-stash. Hartenstein has some question marks regarding attitude, but the talent and skill at his size is undeniable.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Bam Adebayo, C Kentucky (6-10, 260) Age: 20
The Spurs worked their magic again and have gotten a huge season out of castoff Dwayne Dedmon, however he will be a free agent this summer and likely to be highly coveted in this market bereft of rim protectors. Adebayo isn't much but an massive, athletic big at this point, but with some work, the Spurs tremendous staff could turn him into a quality backup down the line.
30. Utah Jazz (from Golden State): Johnathan Motley, PF/C Baylor (6-9, 230) Age: 22
Motley is a really solid all-around big that can play some center, which makes his jumper even more of a weapon while he has the defensive and rebounding potential to make it work as a backup big that helps on both ends.
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable information used in this post.
01. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn Nets): Markelle Fultz, PG/SG Washington (6-4, 195) Age: 19
Fultz is the best prospect in the draft, whoever gets the first pick should draft him, no matter who they already have on the roster. For Boston, Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, and Avery Bradley are all becoming free agents in the next two years, so Fultz makes sense beyond that.
02. Phoenix Suns: Josh Jackson, SF Kansas (6-8, 207) Age: 20
The Suns have been searching for a two-way wing for years and they have several options in Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, and Jayson Tatum. Jackson is the better defender and fits next to the Suns' high usage guards. However, Tatum is a real option due to his sophisticated offensive game and based on the high upside style of drafting the Suns have pursed recently, Isaac is also a serious option.
03. Los Angeles Lakers: Lonzo Ball, PG UCLA (6-6, 190) Age: 19
Ball plays in LA, is from nearby Chino Hills, has the Lakers coveted "star" profile, and is a tall point guard that makes flashy plays ala new Lakers President of Basketball Ops Magic Johnson... If the Lakers keep their pick (it has to be top 3) and Ball is available when they select, it's hard to see a bigger lock than this.
04. Orlando Magic: Dennis Smith Jr, PG North Carolina (6-3, 195) Age: 19
Elfrid Payton has been improved, but it is going to be very hard to have a good offense with him as your starting point guard. Dennis Smith Jr. is a different story all together. Whatever Orlando's plan was in building their roster, it hasn't worked and it is time to move in a new direction, starting with Smith.
05. Philadelphia 76ers: Jayson Tatum, SF Duke (6-8, 205) Age: 19
While it might be tempting to put Malik Monk on the Sixers because of fit, but Tatum and Jonathan Isaac are better prospects and also fit needs for Philly. Tatum is good defender and a talented wing scorer who can shoot from three well enough to space the floor for Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
06. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State (6-10, 210) Age: 19
The Timberwolves defense has lacked a versatile forward on both ends of the court for a while now. Andrew Wiggins just hasn't gotten there as a defender and Gorgui Dieng is probably a better option as a backup center. Isaac is a really good fit with the rest of Minnesota's roster.
07. New York Knicks: Malik Monk, SG Kentucky (6-3, 200) Age: 19
The Knicks franchise has been a mess so far this season, but the good news is they will get a chance at finding another building block in the draft. Malik Monk is really up and down, but when he is up he can win a game for you. Sure to be an MSG fan favorite.
08. Sacramento Kings (from New Orleans): De'Aaron Fox, PG Kentucky (6-3, 187) Age: 19
With Darren Collison a free agent this summer and Ty Lawson no one's idea of a starting point guard, the Kings will need to find someone to run the team this summer. Fox isn't a shooting threat, but his passing and defense will be a solid fit in the next era of Kings' basketball.
09. Dallas Mavericks: Lauri Markkanen, PF/C Arizona (7-0, 230) Age: 19
It is probably a little too convenient that the tall European shooter is available to the Mavericks just as Dirk Nowitzki's career is winding down, but... It does make a lot of sense, as does Markkanen's fit next to new Dallas center Nerlens Noel.
10. Charlotte Hornets: Robert Williams, PF/C Texas A&M (6-9, 237) Age: 19
Two years ago the Hornets passed on a young big man from Texas and that didn't work out too well at all. Robert Williams' isn't the level of shooter (yet) that Myles Turner is, but he is a better athlete. Charlotte's backup big man issues have tanked their season and must be solved.
11. Chicago Bulls (from Sacramento): Frank Ntilikina, PG Strasbough (6-5, 170) Age: 18
The Bulls somehow have four point guards on their roster that can't shoot. Frank Ntilikina can not only shoot but he is an excellent pick-and-roll player and versatile defender. Note: this pick will belong to the Kings if it falls in the top ten, a likely outcome.)
12. Portland Trailblazers: Miles Bridges, SF/PF Michigan State (6-7, 230) Age: 19
This is the end of a tier of talent, but it also makes sense for Portland, who might look to get off the money owed wings Even Turner and Moe Harkless. Bridges is a combo forward who fits well next to Portland's guards because he is a spot-up shooter and rim finisher that can guard multiple positions but isn't a shot creator.
13. Milwaukee Bucks: Justin Patton, C Creighton (6-11, 215) Age: 20
Aside from Greg Monroe, the Bucks have several mediocre centers, and Monroe might not be long for Milwaukee. Justin Patton isn't a finished product, but his finishing skills, ability to run the floor, decent shooting touch, and mobility on defense would be a solid fit with the Bucks style of play.
14. Miami Heat: John Collins, PF/C Wake Forest (6-10, 218) Age: 19
The Heat are loaded down with wings and combo guards, but are surprisingly light in the big man spots. John Collins is a hyper-active, bouncy, super productive big man that would fit the Heat culture well.
15. Denver Nuggets: Harry Giles, PF/C Duke (6-10, 240) Age: 19
The Nuggets have so much young talent, they can afford to take a chance with their draft pick. Harry Giles and his knee injuries are definitely a risk, but there is also the reward of possibly a top 3 talent in the draft.
16. Detroit Pistons: Terrance Ferguson, SG Adelaide (6-7, 186) Age: 19
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is going to be one of the most sought after free agents this summer, and even though he is restricted there is a real chance Detroit could lose him. Terrance Ferguson has the KCP starter kit: top level athletic ability and a really nice stroke from the perimeter.
17. Chicago Bulls: Ivan Rabb, PF/C California (6-11, 220) Age: 20
With Taj Gibson traded, Christiano Felicio and Nikola Mirotic pending free agents and Bobby Portis not good yet, the Bulls are all of a sudden looking at a real deficiency in their frontcourt. Ivan Rabb is the kind of player the Bulls like to draft, accomplished and safe, but also lacking a big upside.
18. Indiana Pacers: Jarrett Allen, C Texas (6-11, 235) Age: 19
Well, the last time the Pacers drafted a big man from Texas it worked out, didn't it? Allen isn't quite the prospect that Myles Turner was, but he has tremendous measurables and would fit MUCH better as the Pacers backup center than Al Jefferson, who can't play fast like the Pacers want and tanks their defense.
19. Atlanta Hawks: Tyler Lydon, PF Syracuse (6-8, 205) Age: 21
Between Ryan Kelly and Ersan Ilyasova, it is clear the Hawks would like a stretch four for their system. Lydon is shooting .406% from three through 234 career attempts and he offers much more upside defensively than Kelly or Ilyasova.
20. Oklahoma City Thunder: Luke Kennard, SG Duke (6-5, 180) Age: 20
The Thunder clearly recognize their need for shooting, as they recently traded for Doug McDermott, but even with that addition, they need to add shooting going forward. Kennard is the kind of shooter they need and also makes smart plays, making up some for his physical deficiencies.
21. Toronto Raptors: T.J. Leaf, PF UCLA (6-10, 225) Age: 20
With Serge Ibaka and Patrick Patterson both entering free agency this year, the Raptors will need to shore up their frontcourt in preparation for losing one of them. Leaf has real warts defensively, but he is an active big man with a good outside shot.
22. Portland Trail Blazers (from Memphis): OG Anunoby, SF Indiana (6-8, 215) Age: 19
With three first round picks (at least for now, no doubt they will trade at least one) the Blazers can afford to take a chance, which OG Anunoby would definitely be since he is recovering from a knee injury and has regressed as as shooter, despite his immense defensive talent.
23. Utah Jazz: Justin Jackson, SF North Carolina (6-8, 193) Age: 22
Despite the fact there is no evidence pointing to Gordon Heyward's desire to leave Utah, (hey did you know Brad Stevens coached Heyward in college?) Utah will still need to have a backup plan if Heyward scoots. Jackson isn't Heyward in any way shape or form but he is a smart wing that can really shoot and moves well off the ball.
24. Brooklyn Nets (from Washington): Caleb Swanigan, PF/C Purdue (6-9, 260) Age: 20
The Nets need to make their draft picks count, so swinging for the fences makes sense with at least one of their two firsts this year. Caleb Swanigan isn't a traditional high upside pick because he isn't a great athlete, but he is very skilled and vacuums up rebounds.
25. Orlando Magic (from Los Angeles): Josh Hart, SG Villanova (6-5, 205) Age: 22
Playmaking and shooting have long been problems in Orlando, so Josh Hart fit the bill. Hart is a very good shooter and has really grown handling the ball and passing. His upside is low, but like Malcolm Brogdon last year, Hart looks like an early contributor.
26. Brooklyn Nets (from Boston): Shake Milton, PG/SG SMU (6-5, 195) Age: 20
The Net have had serious issues in their backcourt for the last two seasons and it has really hurt their ability to win games. Milton fits the Nets uptempo style of play and can really do a multitude of things on the court, including make plays, shoot, and defend multiple positions.
27. Los Angeles Lakers (from Houston): Donovan Mitchell, SG Louisville (6-3, 210) Age: 20
The Lakers need at least one guard that can defend. Mitchell can do that, as well as a tough off the dribble game and improved jumper.
28. Portland Trail Blazers (from Cleveland): Isaiah Hartenstein, C Zalgris (7-0, 225) Age: 19
Again, the Blazers are unlikely to use all three draft picks, but if they do they could look to draft-and-stash. Hartenstein has some question marks regarding attitude, but the talent and skill at his size is undeniable.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Bam Adebayo, C Kentucky (6-10, 260) Age: 20
The Spurs worked their magic again and have gotten a huge season out of castoff Dwayne Dedmon, however he will be a free agent this summer and likely to be highly coveted in this market bereft of rim protectors. Adebayo isn't much but an massive, athletic big at this point, but with some work, the Spurs tremendous staff could turn him into a quality backup down the line.
30. Utah Jazz (from Golden State): Johnathan Motley, PF/C Baylor (6-9, 230) Age: 22
Motley is a really solid all-around big that can play some center, which makes his jumper even more of a weapon while he has the defensive and rebounding potential to make it work as a backup big that helps on both ends.
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable information used in this post.
Saturday, July 4, 2015
2015 Draft Review: Boston Celtics
PG: Marcus Smart/Isaiah Thomas/Terry Rozier/Phil Pressey/Marcus Thornton
SG: Avery Bradley/R.J. Hunter/James Young/Chris Babb
SF: Jae Crowder/Evan Turner/Gerald Wallace
PF: Amir Johnson/Kelly Olynyk/Jonas Jerebko
C: Tyler Zeller/Jared Sullinger/Jordan Mickey
2015 Free Agents
F Luigi Datome (RFA)
PF Brandon Bass
What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Louisville point guard Terry Rozier 16th overall
I understand what Danny Ainge and Boston are doing, trying to collect assets and backup plans for those assets, but I think drafting Terry Rozier was a step too far, especially considering he wasn't remotely the best prospect available. Adding Rozier and later Marcus Thornton gives the Celtics six guards 6-4 or shorter, none of which is a real, true NBA level point guard. They are gritty, but half can't shoot and the other half can't distribute or finish. Rozier is a solid backup point guard prospect in certain situations because he can pressure the ball and push the tempo in transition. However, he is limited distributing, struggles shooting, and doesn't finish well, so he fits right in with Boston's backcourt. What he does well is good enough to make him a solid backup NBA player, but you want more than that from a mid-first round pick, especially when there were potentially above-average NBA starters available at the sixteenth pick. Luckily (and luck is what it was) Boston was able to get good value that also fit their needs later on in the draft.
Drafted Georgia State shooting guard R.J. Hunter 28th overall
The opposite of Rozier, Hunter is exactly what Boston's offense needs: shooting and size. Hunter's ability to make threes at a high rate will be crucial to Boston's offense, which relies on Smart and Isaiah Thomas' dribble drives and pick-and-roll with Tyler Zeller. Hunter's ability will spread out the defense, forcing them to avoid overcommiting with help defense or be burned from three. Hunter isn't one dimensional either, he can handle the ball a little, and even ran pick-and-roll some last season. Defense may be a little bit more of a project, Hunter needs to get stronger and improve his technique, but Boston has some strong perimeter defenders to help cover for him was he develops on that end.
Drafted LSU power forward Jordan Mickey 33rd overall
The Celtics were woeful protecting the rim last season, so clearly a priority had to be put on finding some shot-blockers. The Celtics signing Amir Johnson and drafting Jordan Mickey was a good start. Mickey is undersized but has long arms and very good bounce, he had good instincts and is very mobile, meaning in time he should be good guarding both the rim and on the perimeter. My one concern with Mickey's defensive profile is that I am not sure he can guard centers or bigger power forwards, he might be overwhelmed unless he gains more lower body strength, while alsobeing susceptible to just getting shot over the top of occasionally. Mickey's role in Boston is unclear due to all the so-so pieces they have, but he and Johnson are easily their best interior defenders and Mickey is good enough around the basket and facing up a little that he won't hurt the offense.
Drafted William & Mary point guard Marcus Thornton 45th overall
Another small guard for Boston, at least Marcus Thornton can shoot. He is a two guard in the body of a point guard that can really score when given the opportunity, but I am not sure what else he brings to the table. Due to the glut of guards on Boston's roster, Thornton faces an uphill battle making the team, but should thrive in the D-League and be available for a call up when one is needed.
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Saturday, June 20, 2015
2015 Draft Preview: Boston Celtics
PG: Marcus Smart/Isaiah Thomas/Phil Pressey
SG: Avery Bradley/James Young/Chris Babb
SF: Evan Turner/Gerald Wallace
PF: Kelly Olynyk
C: Tyler Zeller/Jared Sullinger
2015 Free Agents
SF Jae Crowder (RFA)
F Luigi Datome (RFA)
PF Brandon Bass
F Jonas Jerebko
2015 Draft Picks
1-15
1-28 via Clippers
2-3(33) via Philadelphia
2-15(45)
Team Needs
Boston has a solid collection of players, but still have a long way to go before being considered a contender. Honestly, they don't really have a single player that you could say for certain would be one of the top five players on a contender, but they have a multitude that could be the sixth or seven best. This gives them a good starting point and lots of flexibility as they search for a star or two. Marcus Smart, who is the one guy I think could become one of those higher level players, is probably locked in at one of the guard spots, but the rest of the starting lineup is up for grabs. The frontcourt is one of the biggest areas of need for Boston, namely an athletic, shot-blocking player to compliment their other, more floor-bound, offensive-minded players. There is a good chance Jae Crowder is re-signed, but even if he is Boston could use another wing, preferably one that can shoot and is more ready than James Young.
Potential Fits
Potential Fits
To me, the best move is one they have reportedly been considering: using the draft picks they have acquired in addition to one of their young players and attempt a trade up as high as they can get without being fleeced. If they are able to trade up, bigs would seemingly be the main target, including Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein if they get into the top ten or Myles Turner of Texas in the later lottery. Really though, any of the top 10 or so prospects would be an upgrade for Boston's starting lineup, especially when you consider Smart can play either guard spot. If they don't trade their pick, they will have to look at what is available and balance need with value. Arkansas's Bobby Portis would be an upgrade at forward or center, but isn't quite the dominating shot blocker they need. Washington's Robert Upshaw is a perfect fit as a defensive anchor, however he has been kicked off of two college teams and has some off-the-court issues. GM Danny Ainge is unafraid of risk and problem children, so there is alway a possibility they throw caution to the wind and take Upshaw. Another three prospects, UCLA's Kevon Looney, UNLV 's Christian Wood, and Louisville's Montrezl Harrell are all they kind of athletic players that would fit, but each has concerns as well: Looney's ultimate position, Wood's strength, and Harrell's size. To me, of those three Looney makes the most sense because he has the kind of defensive versatility Boston likes and some upside to become an above-average player who can defend, offensive rebound, and make outside shots. Even if they take a big with their first pick, I'd expect them to double-dip with one of their next picks and target another shot-blocking type player such and Syracuse's big man Rakeem Christmas.
Mock Draft
Mock Draft
15. Kevon Looney, F, UCLA
28. Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV
33. Rakeem Christmas, F/C, Syracuse
Saturday, June 28, 2014
Boston Celtics Draft Review
Smart took a lot of undue criticism (and got some undue praise) but in the end he still projects to be an above-average NBA player that can do a lot to help a team win. True he isn't a natural point guard, he has turnover issues and is a poor shooter right now, but he can get to the rim, make his teammates better, and plays all out on both ends of the court. The issue here is that he is somewhat redundant with with Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley, so you'd have to think a trade of Rondo is coming in the near future because I don't know how well he and Smart would fit together. Boston has a long, long ways to go to be good again, but Smart is a step in the right direction.
17. James Young, G/F Kentucky Fr. (6-7, 213)
Young was overrated by the media and probably still went higher than he should have based on his merits. He his just 18 and has a lot of potential, but is so far from realizing it that there is some question about whether he can ever reach it. The issues aren't physical, he has good size, smooth athleticism, and the ability to handle the ball. However, the mental side of his game is lacking. Young takes bad shots, is very streaky, and really struggles to engage on the defensive side of the ball, leading to many mistakes. So much so that he was actively a negative for Kentucky on the defensive side of the balls Young could become a really good player, but his floor is out if the NBA.
Current Lineup
PG: Rajon Rondo/Phil Pressey
SG: Marcus Smart/Avery Bradley (RFA)
SF: Jeff Green/James Young/Gerald Wallace
PF: Jared Sullinger/Brandon Bass
Sunday, June 30, 2013
Draft Review: Boston Celtics
Kelly Olynyk, PF Gonzaga (13)
The Celtics moved up to take Kelly Olynyk, who is probably the most skilled big man in the draft. He has unusually good ball handling skills and is a good enough shooter to be a stretch 4 down the line. Olynyk is also a good post scorer and crafty finisher, however he isn't a great athlete nor is he very long, so he may struggle to finish sometimes. Also, this may cause Olynyk to struggle defensively and on the glass as well. Basically he is a taller, thinner Jared Sullinger, so I don't understand this pick.
Second Round
Colton Iverson, C Colorado State (53)
This is a very good pick for the Celtics at this point in the draft and I think Colton Iverson sticks on the roster. He isn't particularly skilled or athletic, but Iverson is long, strong, and tough. Even if his role is simply a practice guy, Iverson will toughen up Boston's young bigs with his physicality and energy and can pull spot duty as a Ivan Johnson-type.
Traded Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce
The Celtics finally pulled the blowup cord and traded franchise stalwarts Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, along with Jason Terry to the Nets for Keith Bogans, MarShon Brooks, Kris Humphries, Kris Joseph, and Gerald Wallace as well as first round picks in 2014, 2016, and 2018. This is may be hard on Celtics fans, and the team certainly may be terrible for a couple years, but it was the right thing to do. The Nets aging roster will be good for a couple years, but by 2016 and 2018, these picks could be very valuable. None of the players added are part of the future, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Rondo be traded soon as well.
Projected Rotation
PG: Rajon Rondo/Avery Bradley
SG: Courtney Lee/Jordan Crawford/MarShon Brooks
SF: Jeff Green/Gerald Wallace
PF: Brandon Bass/Jared Sullinger
C: Fab Melo/Kelly Olynyk
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