Five Breakout NBA players in 2017-18

After an offseason full of player movement, the start of the season means new opportunities for many players across the league. These five players not only have bigger roles waiting for them, but also the skills to take advantage and break out.

Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
This is the obvious one, Rodney Hood is sure to be all over breakout/most important player lists this preseason; it's clear that Hood needs to take a step forward for the Jazz to return to the playoffs. With Gordon Heyward gone, Hood is Utah's top remaining perimeter scorer and will be there go-to scoring option. It is important to note that Utah's egalitarian offense system won't feature a lot of iso situations, but no offense can rely completely on ball+player movement, there will plenty of times that individual shot creation will be required and Hood will probably lead the team in such opportunities. He won't replace Heyward 1-to-1, the Jazz will count on Ricky Rubio's passing, a Derrick Favors/Alec Burks health bounce-back, and rookie Donovan Mitchell to fill the void, but Hood will be the biggest piece in a group effort. For and foremost, health will be crucial for Hood, who has two seasons playing less than 60 games sandwiched between a nearly complete season of 79 games. Assuming health, Hood will need to not only sustain what he has been good at in the past but also develop his game to become more of a primary offensive option. Hood's strengths are obvious, he is a very good shooter from deep (.371 from three point range) and at 6-8 he has no trouble getting his shot off, while his patience running pick-and-roll allows him to be effective off the dribble without the burst normally associated with such actions. Where Hood needs to get better is inside the arc; his career fee throw rate (.196) and 2-point percentage are (.458) are well below average. Lacking that burst, Hood will need to hone his craft, using his size to finish over shorter players and become more active off the ball, getting easy shots at the basket via cuts and backscreens. Playing with more than willing passers like Rubio and Joe Ingles should allow Hood to get some easier looks, particularly on the break. Utah isn't a very fast-paced team (though that might change with Rubio) by Gordon Heyward excelled at leaking out ahead of the pack, something Hood should attempt to emulate. It's not that Hood is a lazy player by any means, but he can be somewhat low energy and not assertive hunting his own shot, which is exactly what the Jazz need of him. Also, in a contract year, Hood could really help his own financial situation with a big year, or tank it with a bad one.

Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
The Celtics traded away their two top perimeter defenders and replaced them with a decidedly bad defender (Kyrie Irving), an okay one (Marcus Morris) and a very good one (Gordon Heyward). Heyward and Morris should at least hold serve replacing Jae Crowder but Avery Bradley is a different story. Irving will slot into Isaiah Thomas' role as resident defensive sieve but without Bradley there to match-up on the opposing point guard, that duty will fall in crucial moments on Marcus Smart, who is up to the task on that end of the floor. Whether or not he can replace Bradley's offensive contributions is more of an open question. Smart's size, strength, and tenacity make him one of best, most versatile defender in the league, able to battle bigger players in the post while pestering on the perimeter with quick feet and hands. Despite his willingness to fire away 4+ three-pointers a game, Smart is a terrible three-point shooter (.291 career) and his .422 percentage on two-point shots is just as putrid (compare that with Avery Bradley's .390 and .504 marks, respectively, last season). At this point, defenses have little to fear by leaving him wide open outside the arc, something that will really hurt the Celtics in crunch time, which is exactly when they will need him on the floor. So how can he be successful? In his prime, Tony Allen couldn't shoot and would routinely flub wide-open layups, yet was a successful player for years. Obviously being one of the best perimeter defenders in NBA history helped (Smart is excellent but he isn't quite Allen's level) but that didn't sort out his offense. On that end, Allen was always hunting for easy shots for himself, crashing the glass, sprinting in transition, and was such a threat to cut to the basket that defenses had to pay attention to him even if he wasn't going to shoot. That's the template use for his success, work as hard off the ball offensively as he does on defense. And Smart, while still a really bad shooter, can get hot at times which means that he can take a three from time to time, when wide open, he just shouldn't be so shot happy from there. Like Hood, Smart is also in a contract year and has some financial incentive to be better than he has been.

Allen Crabbe, Brooklyn Nets
With Portland, Crabbe played a crucial role in the Blazers offensive when he was on the floor, spacing the floor for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, courtesy of a .444 shooting percentage from behind the arc. In Brooklyn, Crabbe will be performing a similar task for D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lin. However, Russell and Lin are lower usage players than Lillard and McCollum, which should give Crabbe a chance to take even more three than the 3.8 he attempted per game last season. 73 players attemped more threes than Crabbe last season. As a member of the Nets last season, Bojan Bogdanovic attempted 5 threes a game, if Crabbe takes that many or more a game (last season he was at 3.8) and continues to make 40%+ from three, a breakout offensive performance is very possible. Brooklyn took the third most threes last season (more than Golden State believe it or not) and will look to shoot even more this season, a plan that suits Crabbe just fine. The other factor here is that Brooklyn has every incentive to play Crabbe starters minutes, as they just used much of their copious cap space in order to acquire him, and had attempted to get him in the past. More opportunities is often all that it takes for a NBA player to have breakout campaign.

Jerami Grant, Oklahoma City
As of now, the Thunder's backup center is Dakari Johnson, who might not even make the roster. Unless the Thunder find a veteran big man, they'll have to find someone to backup Steven Adams. While a 6-8, 210 pound forward like Jerami Grant might not seem like the prime option, but Grant's defensive potential as someone who can switch and block shots, is actually ideal for playing center in the modern NBA, especially against backup centers who aren't going to kill him in the post. In less advantageous matchups, say against a lumbering post scorer like Jahlil Okafor, Grant would be just as much of a matchup problem because of his ability to make straight line drives and passably shoot from three, skills that will play up as a center. Last season, Grant made .371 of his 144 three-point attempts, something he will look to keep up in his first full year with the Thunder, if not at that level at least at a passable 33-35%, which would be very good if he is playing at center. Likewise, Grant isn't a superb driver but is quick for his size and is a vicious finisher when he gets to the rim. As a backup center, playing with some combination of Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Carmelo Anthony, Grant will be asked to space the floor, attack closeouts, and finish lobs, all things he has shown the ability to do in the past. Defensively, Grant is one of the elite shot blockers in the NBA, finishing 11th in the NBA in block percentage (The Greek Freak is the only non-center ahead of him) so Grant has part of the big man skills down pat, though he will drastically need to improve as a rebounder in order to make it work at center. His 7.4 defensive rebound would rank second to last season among centers, besting only 35 year old, ground-bound Boris Diaw. Part of that poor number is the amount of time Grant spent playing small forward (and playing with high level rebounders that grabbed the boards instead) but no doubt he must improve to at least league average on the glass, an accomplishment that seems possible given his length and leaping ability. If Grant can stay a solid shooter and top level defender, while also improving his rebounding, a breakthrough to becoming one of the better backups in the NBA is definitely possible.

Norman Powell, Toronto Raptors
The Raptors roster has changed quite a bit over that last year, with players coming and going. Of the top ten per game minute getters last season, half of them are gone and their replacements are mostly unproven players. On the wing, the Raptors have presumed starters DeMar DeRozan and CJ Miles, then injured rookie OG Anunoby, still raw Bruno Caboclo, and multiple time castoff KJ McDaniels. These are the players Norman Powell is competing with for minutes. In fact it can be argued that Powell is the second best wing on the roster, ahead of Miles. Assuming there are 96 minutes available on the wing, DeRozan will take about 36 of them, leaving 60 minutes to be divided up among the rest. Whether it be from 25 to 30 minutes a game, Powell is sure to see a boost in minutes from the 18 a game he averaged last season. And honestly, as far as talent is concerned, playing time may be all that Powell needs to break out. Despite being relatively short for a wing, Powell is strongly built and has long arms to challenge bigger, stronger players defensively. Offensively, his jumper could stand to be more consistent, he is somewhat streaky, but where Powell stands out is his ability to beat defenders off the dribble and make plays going towards the basket. Powell took 41% of his shots withing 0-3 feet of the basket and made an excellent .606% of those shots. Given his ability defensively and a solid outside stroke, Powell should be the first player off the bench in Toronto, if not the starter by season's end.

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10 Things To Watch At The Orlando Summer League

1. Where does Marcus Smart look most comfortable?
The Celtics drafted Marcus Smart into a situation with a well paid veteran point guard (Rajon Rondo) and shooting guard (Avery Bradley), so there is some question as to where he will play. Before coming to Oklahoma State, Smart was a two guard, but in college he played the point. With James Young and Phil Pressey both on the summer league roster, Smart will have an opportunity to play both, so it will be interesting if he looks more comfortable off the ball or if point guard is truly his future position. With Bradley just signed to a big, long term contract, it seems most likely that Rondo will be the one either traded or let walk when his contract expires next summer. Either way, there will be pressure on Smart to be the point guard of the future. Summer league isn't the best place for point guards to shine, but if he can run some semblance of an offense, it will be a good sign.

2. Can James Young translate his talent onto the court?
There is an expression in baseball scouting that a player who has demonstrated a multitude of present or future skills is a "toolbox." In a basketball sense, Young is a toolbox. At various times he looks like he can shoot the ball from the outside, make plays for himself and others off the dribble, finish with authority, and be a lockdown defender. However, all too often those skills are sabotaged by the cerebral aspect of the game, where Young struggles. Whether it be shooting from 3-point range too often, playing out of control, misreading situations, or making mental mistakes defensively like forgetting assignments and rotations. There are some mitigating circumstances, particularly the unique situation at Kentucky with many young alpha dogs playing together for the first time. Also, he is only 18 years old. Young could have a bright future if his on-court IQ catches up to his physical abilities and skills, but if not he may just be another young talent who never reaches their potential.

3. Do Any of Brooklyn's second rounders step up?
The Nets have a roster packed with heavy contract guys, so if they can get their hands on an inexpensive young contributor or two, it will be a major boon to both their roster and their cap situation. In the 2014 draft, the Nets acquired 3 second round picks and with them drafted two shooting guards, Markel Brown and Xavier Thames, as well as power forward Cory Jefferson. If even one of these prospects becomes a contributor, even as the last man on Brooklyn's bench, it will help the Nets bloated roster gain some semblance of stability. All 3 are good, not great shooters, and have both pluses and minus to their games. Brown is undersized and lacks polished offensive skills, though he is a special athlete. Thames on the other hand, isn't overly athletic, and is also undersized, however he is a good ball handler and has a non-zero chance of becoming a point guard with work. Like Brown, Jefferson is very athletic and can shoot, but isn't a finished product offensively. He is good on the glass and can be a very good rim protector, but is also a late bloomer who hasn't sustained a high level of success for long stretches. Summer league is the first steps for these 3 as they try to prove they belong in the NBA.

4. Can Solomon Hill turn into anything?

Last season the Pacers reached for Solomon Hill, a fringe prospect, in the first round of the draft, and he really failed to impress, posting a very uninspiring 7.62 PER in just 28 game and 8.1 minutes for game. For a college senior close to his ceiling and supposedly ready to contribute, Hill didn't look like he could bring much of anything to the table. This year, the Pacers summer league roster consists of mostly castoffs and journeymen, with Hill clearly the only player with much of a chance to make an impact on the Pacers. Because of this, Hill will likely be featured by the Pacers coaching staff and given every chance to showcase his abilities. Can he show the versatility on both ends of the court that led the Pacers to draft him? Or will he look as lost, unathletic, and unskilled as he did at times during his rookie year. 

5. How do Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes handle athletes?

In round one of old vs. new school scouting, we have analytical darlings Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes looking to take the first step towards proving that basketball skill and production is more important that physical tools. Neither Stokes nor Adams is particularly impressive athletically, Stokes tested well but plays below the rim while Adams was a disaster at the NBA combine and never looked like an above-average athlete on the court. Both however, were very productive during their time in college, posting big, efficient, numbers scoring the ball, rebounding (relative to position), and even in the case of Adams, high steal totals, all of which are solid indicators of success at the next level. Neither Adams or Stokes were non-prospects, and I think most would agree that they deserves to be drafted, but Adams in particular was surprising with where he was drafted. Hopefully they have successful careers and strike a blow for skill and production over "athletic upside."

6. Is there anyone who can help the Heat?

In a minute, in a day, the Miami situation could change drasitcally depending on what the Big 3 do. If they do all re-sign, the Heat will be in a tight financially situation, which means any kind of bargain player who can help will be a huge benefit. Last year's second rounder James Ennis is intriguing because he is a tough defender and has shown the ability to shoot from the outside, consistency and improvement there would make him an intriguing James Jones replacement. Another interesting prospect is former Duke guard Andre Dawkins, who shot 42% from 3 last year and has a long-track record as a shooter. Former UCLA standout Tyler Honeycutt has always been a jack of all trades on both ends of the court, a gifted passer and ball handler despite being 6-8. The real question was his shooting, but he made 36% of his 3 last season playing in Israel. Towson forward Jarrelle Benimon isn't super skilled athletically, but he plays very hard and eats up rebounds. It is along shot for any of these players to make the Heat, but there is always a chance, which is why the summer league exists.

7. Do any of the Thunder's young players take a step forward?

The Thunder have a stacked roster yet again, featuring multiple first round picks including Steven Adams, Josh Huestis, Perry Jones, Jeremy Lamb, Mitch McGary and Andre Roberson, as well as second rounders Grant Jerrett and Semaj Christon. All are very talented and could play key roles for the Thunder off the bench. Each however, also have areas in need of improvement. Wing defense specialists Huestis and Roberson meet to develop offense to help them stay on the court. Lamb and Jones have all the talent in the world but need to be more consistent. Is McGary recovered and back to normal after his back injury? Will Steven Adams take a step forward from awkward but effective defensive player to legitimate starting center? Jarrett can shoot but he needs to do more than that to earn playing time. Christon is raw and can play wild, but has Eric Bledsoe-like athleticism and motor for a guard.

8. The Orlando's young trio score consistently?

In the last two drafts, Orlando has used 3 lottery picks on some of the best defensive players in those respective classes. Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, and Elfrid Payton all have the potential to be some of the best defensive players at their respective positions down the road. The question is, do they begin to take steps forward on offense? Payton is probably the best in that respect because of his ability to get to the rim, finish, and draw fouls, but his struggles shooting the ball mean he will be working uphill until he can improve in that area. Oladipo and Gordon score off of their energy, but neither are consistent shooters with go-to offensive moves. Oladipo can really get to the rim, but he plays very out of control and gets his shot blocked a lot. Gordon on the other hand, is an awesome finisher, but he needs to improve his footwork in the post and rework a jumpshot that can look pretty ugly at times. All three have bright futures, but the gap between valuable player and star is getting it done on both ends of the court.

9. How does Nerlens Noel look after 17 months off the court?
February 12, 2013 Nerlens Noel tore his ACL and was out for the rest of the season. Since then he has all but disappeared save for a brief appearance when he was drafted by the Sixers, not appearing in a single game for the Sixers. This summer, however, Noel will make his pro debut. Obviously, there is a good chance that he will be rusty, however that really isn't the biggest issue. What Noel needs to show is that he is healthy and fully recovered, able to move side-to-side and vertically like he did before the injury. Noel's ability to guard on the perimeter, high motor, disruptive hands, and elite rim protection skills have drawn comparisons to Joakim Noah. Noel wasn't to play like Noah, but needs to be able to move fluidly to accomplish that level of defensive impact. For all intents and purposes, Noel is basically the Sixers first round pick this year, with Joel Embiid and Dario Saric unlikely to play in the NBA next season, so there will be some unfair pressure on him to perform at a high level. This summer will be a big step forward to see if Noel, rightly or wrongly, will "disappoint" this season.

10. Do any UDFA's make teams look foolish?
Many, many draft prospects weren't drafted this year, but luckily for them they will get a chance to show what they can do in the Summer League. Some of the most notable are Tarik Black, Jahii Carson, Jabari Brown, Joe Jackson, Scottie Wilbekin, Fuquan Edwin, Aaron Craft, Melvin Ejim. Point guards like Carson, JAckson, Wilbekin, and Craft will look to show balance and control of an offense. Wing players such as Brown and Edwin will try to light up the scoreboard and shut down the man in front of them, while Ejim will look to show he isn't a tweener and Black has to defend without fouling and show a higher skill level than he did at Kansas. Odds are, none of these players will ever have a significant career in the NBA, but every once in a while one slips through the cracks of the draft and there isn't any reason why one of these couldn't end up making it on a big team roster. All have talent, from this point it is hard work and a little luck.

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Boston Celtics Draft Review

6. Marcus Smart, G Oklahoma State So. (6-3, 227)

Smart took a lot of undue criticism (and got some undue praise) but in the end he still projects to be an above-average NBA player that can do a lot to help a team win. True he isn't a natural point guard, he has turnover issues and is a poor shooter right now, but he can get to the rim, make his teammates better, and plays all out on both ends of the court. The issue here is that he is somewhat redundant with with Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley, so you'd have to think a trade of Rondo is coming in the near future because I don't know how well he and Smart would fit together. Boston has a long, long ways to go to be good again, but Smart is a step in the right direction.

17. James Young, G/F Kentucky Fr. (6-7, 213)

Young was overrated by the media and probably still went higher than he should have based on his merits. He his just 18 and has a lot of potential, but is so far from realizing it that there is some question about whether he can ever reach it. The issues aren't physical, he has good size, smooth athleticism, and the ability to handle the ball. However, the mental side of his game is lacking. Young takes bad shots, is very streaky, and really struggles to engage on the defensive side of the ball, leading to many mistakes. So much so that he was actively a negative for Kentucky on the defensive side of the balls Young could become a really good player, but his floor is out if the NBA.

Current Lineup

PG: Rajon Rondo/Phil Pressey

SG: Marcus Smart/Avery Bradley (RFA)

SF: Jeff Green/James Young/Gerald Wallace

PF: Jared Sullinger/Brandon Bass

C: Kelly Olynyk/Vitor Faverani

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2013-2014 NCAA Basketball Pre-Season All-American Teams

All-American First Team

G: Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State, So.

Reigning Big 12 Player of the Year and Second Team All-American last season, Smart affects the game beyond the box score. His defense and leadership are lauded by coaches, while his ability to make winning plays as well as stuff the stat-sheet should endear him to voters once again.

G: Russ Smith, Louisville, Sr.

Russ Smith averaged 18.7 points a game for the Title-winning Cardinals and plays an exciting style of basketball on both ends of the court. He pressures the ball relentlessly on defense and is a one man fast-break going the other way. With second and third leading scorers Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng gone, Smith should produce even more this season.

F: Jabari Parker, Duke, Fr.

While choosing Parker over Andrew Wiggins may seem ridicules to some, Parker is every bit the player Wiggins is right now, and more polished. Five years from now, give me Wiggins, but this season, particularly early I think Parker out-produces Wiggins and will be on a better team. Also, Parker will play a lot of 4, which means high rebounding numbers.

F: Doug McDermott, Creighton, Sr.

As much of a lock for the All-American team as anyone, McDermott has been on the First Team the last two season and should go down as one of the best college scorers in history. He is looking for his third straight 20 point season, and he a higher profile Big East conference to show out in.

C: Adreian Payne, Michigan, Sr.

This may seem like a bold projection for Payne, but if he improves with the same learning curve he has to this point, and gets an increase in minutes, Payne should produce at a high level. Not only has he progressed skill-wise, he has also grown in the mental aspects of the game, allowing Payne to use his considerable physical gifts.

All-American Second Team

G: Aaron Craft, Ohio State, Sr.

Like Marcus Smart, Aaron Craft affects the game beyond what the box score indicates. His stats are pedestrian, barely averaging double digit points and doing so inefficiently, however his intense defense and leadership are invaluable. He will need to take a step forward offensively this season for Ohio State.

G: Gary Harris, Michigan State, So.

After a quietly impressive Freshman season, Gary Harris passed up on the NBA to return for another season at Michigan State. Fully healthy after shoulder surgery, Harris should become one of the premier perimeter scorers in the country, getting it done on both ends of the court and filling it up from all over the floor.

F: Andrew Wiggins, Kansas, Fr.

By now, most non-Jayhawk fans are sick of hearing about how great Andrew Wiggins is, and for good reason: he is very impressive. Wiggins in a surefire top-3 draft pick and future star, as explosive a player as you will see and exciting on both offense and defense. I worry about expectations early, but by Tournament time he should be rolling. 

F: Julius Randle, Kentucky, Fr.

A monster of a man and an elite athlete, Julius Randle is also very skilled. Like Wiggins he'll be a top NBA pick and should be the next in line of Kentucky one-and-done's. He could easily take off and be First Team, but Kentucky is loaded with options that will cannibalize each other's stats.

C: Montrezl Harrell, Louisville, So.

Montrezl Harrell's stats last season are unimpressive because he played a small role behind First Round pick Gorgui Dieng. This year Harrell, fresh off of playing with Team USA and winning the U19 championship, will step into Dieng's role and minutes and should blow up with points, rebounds and defense.

All-American Third Team

G: Tyler Haws, BYU, Jr.

One of the most unheralded great players in college basketball, Tyler Haws was awesome last season, averaging 21.7 points per game with a very impressive 47%/38%/88% slash line. BYU could ride Haws to a Tournament birth which should put him in consideration for the All-American team. 

G: Nick Johnson, Arizona, Jr.

Lost in all the hype surrounding Arizona's last two big recruiting classes is that Nick Johnson was very impressive last season and will likely be their leading scorer this season. Johnson is also a very good defender and a highlight dunk waiting to happen, which should get him national exposure.

F: Glenn Robinson III, Michigan, So.

Glenn Robinson III eschewed the NBA to come back as Michigan's returning leading scorer along with Nik Stauskas. Robinson III will be the alpha-male on this Michigan team and should put up big numbers as he becomes more consistent game to game.

F: C.J. Fair, Syracuse, Sr.

Quietly one of the best players in the country last season, C.J. Fair has always been an elite athlete, a good rebounder and defender but now he's become a very good shooter who can fill it up from the outside. Syracuse usually has a balanced scoring attack, but Fair will lead the way on what should be a  very good team.

C: Isaiah Austin, Baylor, So.

This last big man spot could go to a lot of players, a couple of the Kentucky guys, Mitch McGary or Aaron Gordon could all fit here, however I think Austin takes a step forward to build on what was an already impressive Freshman year. Austin should be the focal point of Baylor's offense and a good statistical contributor across the board.