Thursday, June 25, 2015

Batum, Lamb, Barnes Trades

Hornets get SF Nicolas Batum
Blazers get PF Noah Vonleh, SG Gerald Henderson

I had mentioned Batum as a possible trade candidate to a team like Utah a couple weeks back, but Charlotte hadn't entered my thinking. The trade does make sense on their end, either as a part of their team moving forward or as a trade piece in the draft. He has always been an unappreciated player because he played in Portland with some bigger stars, but Batum is basically the ultimate role player who fits in seamlessly as a great third option. His fit in Charlotte's lineup is a little non-traditional because he'll be playing shooting guard at 6-8, but Batum has always been better against smaller players because he is so long and quick, but not very strong. Offensively, he had a down year last season but considering he has a consistent track record before that as a 35-40% three-point shooter on a high number of attempts, it is pretty safe to write off 2014-15 as a wrist injury aided aberration. This is good because Charlotte needs shooting more than any team in the league and could use Batum's ability to handle the ball and pass. Despite his size, Batum has developed into a quality pick-and-roll player that should help take some of the pressure off of Kemba Walker. Batum definitely fits best as a shooting guard, but can move up to the three on occasion and would make an intruiging small-ball lineup moving Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to power forward. The issue with this deal for Charlotte is that they gave up a lot of years of control over Vonleh for Batum, who will be a free agent in the summer of 2016. He'll turn 27 this year, so it should be safe to re-sign him and get his a good part of his prime years and early decline, but there is always the risk that he walks next summer and leaves Charlotte with nothing.

For Portland, it was first reported that this wasn't a sign of rebuilding and it wouldn't affect their ability to re-sign LaMarcus Aldridge but now ESPN is reporting there is a "99.9% chance" he is leaving in free agency this summer. If that is they case, Portland will have lost their best player Aldridge, their fourth best player Batum and could possibly lose their third best player, free agent Wes Matthews, who is by-the-way coming off of a torn Achilles and turning 29 this year. That smells an awful lot like rebuilding, in which case the acquisition of Vonleh makes a ton of sense: he is young (turning 20), a top 10 pick just last season, and on his rookie deal for three more seasons, with the possibility of staying under team control for almost a decade. However, all of that means absolutely nothing if he isn't any good, which is still up for debate. It's hard to learn anything based off of last season, Vonleh was injured and Charlotte was such a mess that evaluating the 259 minutes he played is rather fruitless. Coming into the draft, Vonleh had a tremendous frame at 6-10, 240 with a 7-4+ wingspan and good athletic testing numbers,  though the question remains whether he can actually effectively use that athletic ability on the court. One thing is clear, Vonleh can rebound. He did so in college and posted a top-20 rebound rate in his limited minutes this season (18.3). Part of Vonleh's appeal is that he projects as a good defender who can shoot from the perimeter at times, though really he didn't do either of those things particularly well in his first year, but like I said, it was basically a lost season. Because of the questions about Vonleh's ability to move laterally, it makes sense for him to play mostly center where he can certainly rebound and protect the rim, even if his help defense isn't outstanding. Offensively, all will rely on his jumper and whether it develops into a consistent weapon. If it does, Portland can get an approximation, albeit a lesser one, of the spacing, solid overall defense, and rebounding that Aldridge provided. 
Henderson is probably just here for the one season remaining on his contract, if indeed Portland decides to rebuild. He is a good defender against both shooting guards and small forward, but a lack of range offensively causes some spacing issues, making Henderson perhaps better suited to a bench role. Another possibility would be to use Henderson as part of a trade to acquire younger, higher upside talent.  Henderson is a useful player that could definitely help boost a contenders bench without a long term financial commitment. 

Thunder get PG Luke Ridnour
Hornets get SG Jeremy Lamb
Grizzlies get SF Matt Barnes
Magic get the draft rights to SF Janis Timma

This wasn't a four team trade, but essentially amounted to one. Ridnour might stick as Oklahoma City's third point guard, but considering they are trying to save money and create roster space, I wouldn't count on it.

Timma's rights are actually a bigger deal the average fan might believe, despite being the 60th overall pick in 2013, Kevin Pelton projects Timma as an above-replacement level player in the NBA. You'll probably read some jokes on the internet about Memphis getting Barnes for nothing, but Timma has actual value. If and when he comes to the NBA is up for debate, but Timma is a good athlete that has steadily developed his jumper to the point of being an above-average shooter.

Barnes is a decent addition to Memphis' wing rotation, at 35 how much is left in the tank is debatable, but he can still shoot, making between 34-36% of his threes last season on a decent number of attempts the last three seasons. Defensively, Barnes has slipped and is now better defending power forwards and could give Memphis some good small ball options, particularly paired with Jeff Green, who annually is better defending small forwards but is much better playing offensively against power forwards. The shooting is the real key, if Memphis can get Barnes to shoot more 3s and continue to make them efficiently, it will be huge for them.

For Charlotte, they gave up a player they weren't going to keep for a talented young player that helps to fix their biggest weakness and has potential to be very good. Lamb never found footing in Oklahoma City but actually played well when on the court. He's shot 35% from three in the NBA was also a career 35% shooter from deep in college and in the D-League as well. Interestingly, from three Lamb shot better in catch and shoot situations in 2013-14 (39%) and shot really well off-the-dribble last season (40%), if he can put those both together consistently Lamb could become a very good shooter. Even if not, Lamb is an above-average three-point shooter who also plays very good defense and has the potential to be even better on that end as he gains experience. At worst, I think if Lamb gets minutes he will be an excellent 3-and-D wing player capable of guarding positions 1-3, provided that the small forwards aren't too strong. Where Lamb, who just turned 23, stands out though is that he has potential for more, a very smooth athlete that can really jump and has 6-11 wingspan, he has a killer crossover and can attack the rim when in attack mode, which isn't as often as it should be. Overall, this is a great acquisition that should net Charlotte a rotation player at worst and help improve Charlotte's greatest weakness: shooting. Combine that with the trade for Batum, particularly by shipping out Henderson's lack of shooting ability, and the Hornet's have turn a big weakness into a relative strength without sacrificing any defense or playmaking ability.

Follow me on Twitter @double_tech

No comments:

Post a Comment