Wednesday, November 18, 2015

2016 NBA Draft: Initial Point Guard Rankings


A couple of notes: the asterisk(*) denotes a player also in the shooting guard ranking. The age listed is that of the player on the night of the 2016 draft. The measurements are what their colleges list them as. This ranking is as point guards, so while I might think Jamal Murray is a better prospect overall than Kris Dunn, he doesn't project as well to the point guard position, in my opinion, and Dunn does. Same with Demetrius Jackson and Malik Newman.

01. Kris Dunn, Providence (6-4, 220) Age: 22
Dunn is he best player in college basketball this season and should have a monster year. There isn't quite a lot that he cannot do on the court, he is explosive in transition, super-aggressive getting penetration, has pure point guard passing ability, can shoot 3s, has great size and length, is a good defender and great at stealing the ball. His age and a past of injury concerns are the only drawbacks to his game. Sit back and enjoy his last year in college and prepare yourself for him to bring his explosive style of play to the NBA.

02. Jamal Murray, Kentucky (6-5, 207) Age: 19*
No one had a bigger summer than Jamal Murray, breaking out at the Hoops Summit and Pan Am games playing for Canada an then reclassifying to the class of 2015 and heading to Kentucky. Murray is a score first player with the size to play either guard spot, he ultimately is probably better suited to playing off the ball because he is such a good scorer/shooter and might not quite have the athletic ability to stick with quicker point guards. Murray's crafty, skillful scoring and ability to get super-hot from deep should be a pleasure to watch, but keep an eye on his decision-making and defense to get an idea what position he ultimately might be best suited for in the NBA.

03. Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame (6-1, 198) Age: 21
Jackson played last season off the ball next to Jerian Grant but this year, with Grant off to the NBA he will take the reigns as the lead guard for the Irish, his natural position. Jackson is the second best "pure" point guard prospect going into the season and he really doesn't have many holes to his game aside from somewhat less than ideal physical attributes. If he can flourish in an expanded role with the ball in his hands this season, Jackson could cement himself as a possible lottery pick.

04. Malik Newman, Mississippi State (6-3, 190) Age: 19*
Newman is a rare top-10 recruit to choose to Mississippi State, now under new head coach Ben Howland. Newman is a score first type of guard that may be better suited to a become a C.J. McCollum-like off-guard next to a more traditional point guard so he is free to look for his own shot while also making plays for others at times though he is a great athlete, Newman isn't particularly long and may be no taller than 6-4 so he'll need to shot he is able to guard bigger players if he wants to be considered a starting level player. Newman is awesome at getting to the rim and scores in a variety of ways; he isn't a traditional passer but can find teammates off of the disruption his attacking play creates.

05. Isaiah Briscoe, Kentucky (6-3, 202) Age: 20*
Briscoe is definitely scorer first, and like Newman he might have to play off the ball if his point guard skills aren't up to snuff. Briscoe needs to improve his outside shooting and show he can be an efficient scorer and solid defensive player, especially when checking bigger players off the ball in order to be considered for the lottery. He isn't super athletic but has long 6-8+ wingspan and is skilled, crafty, and smooth particularly getting to the rim and finishing.

06. Jalen Brunson, Villanova (6-3, 199) Age: 19
A higher regarded recruit than Villanova usually lands, Jalen Brunson will be inserted directly into a big role on a top ten team and he has the skills to run with it, but will also have some pressure on him to produce. Brunson has nice size for the position, knows how to change speeds and get to the basket, is excellent in the pick-and-roll and shoots the ball well. He is similar to Tyus Jones last season as a polished point guard, however he also lacks top-end athletic ability and length to be a truly devastating offensive player but is good enough in that area to project as an average or better starter because he does so much else well.

07. Monte Morris, Iowa State (6-2, 170) Age: 20
After a promising but mostly unremarkable Freshman season, Monte Morris broke out as a Sophomore leading Iowa State's fast-paced offense; if he can take another step forward he'll really cement himself on NBA radars as a potential first-round pick. Offensively he is a well-rounded point guard that has shot 40% from 3 so far in his career with a sparkling 4.7 assist-to-turnover ratio despite playing in an uptempo offense. To take that next step, he needs to start shoot more 3s while maintaining the same percentage, continue to develop his driving and finishing ability in the half-court, and become a more consistent defensive player. Continued physical development will also help.

08. Melo Trimble, Maryland (6-3, 185) Age: 21
Trimble had an excellent Freshman season and looks to carry that forward on a top five ranked Maryland team with a lot of scoring options. Trimble is much more of a scorer, ceding main point guard duties to Dez Wells last season, but this season Wells is gone and Trimble will have the opportunity to show he is more than just a scorer. Even if not, he might have a future in the NBA as an off-the-bench scoring guard because he is such an efficient offensive player that shot 40%+ from three and got to the line 6+ times a game, the two most efficient ways to score in basketball.

09. Tyrone Wallace, California (6-5, 205) Age: 22*
Wallace eschewed becoming potentially a late first-round pick to return to a loaded California team, with top recruits incoming. He doesn't really have a challenger at point guard so he'll get all the minutes he can handle an put up big numbers, scoring, rebounding, and setting up teammates. His actually on court game is a little bit more dicey, he needs to show a consistent jumpshot and prove he is an efficient playmaker that actually makes a positive influence on games and not just an empty stat guy who steals rebounds and stalls offense. With such a talented team around him, he'll have an opportunity to show he can lead a productive offense. Wallace does have the size to profile as an off-guard in the NBA, if his shooting comes around of course.

10. Derryck Thornton, Duke (6-2, 175) Age: 19
Thornton, a surprise re-classification into the class of 2015, Thornton might be one to file away for the 2017 or 18 draft because he has plenty of ability, but just has a little bit of maturing to do physically and on the court, mainly because he is more of a scorer but doesn't have the body to handle drives to the rim in the NBA yet, but also is more of a pull-up off-the-dribble inside the arc type of shooter at this point. If he gets the minutes this season and shows an improved jumpshot, Thornton could rise quickly in the eyes of NBA teams, but I would be on next year being his year.

11. Gary Payton II, Oregon State (6-3, 190) Age: 23*
The son of that Gary Payton, Gary Payton II has surprising upside despite his age, mainly because he is such a good, impactful defensive player; he averaged 3+ steals and over a block a game last season while still being excellent on ball. Offensively, he has a way to go buy has already made strides in that regard. Really, even if he just develops a consistent 35%-ish jumper, he'll be playable in a Patrick Beverly-type of way.

12. Tyler Ulis, Kentucky (5-9, 160) Age: 20
Ulis is a pure point guard with a tremendous ability to pressure the ball on defense that can also make outside shots. The problem is, of course, he is tiny and, despite the success of smaller players like Isaiah Thomas and Nate Robinson, those are exception. Ulis definitely could make it in the league, but it will probably be after four years in college, no just two; the risk of going undrafted is just too great. 

13. George de Paula, Pinheiros (6-6, 194) Age: 20
George de Paula is an enigma, with great size for a point guard and a 7-foot+ wingspan that allows him to be a very disruptive defensive player. The issues are everything else with his game, as de Paula is still learning the position. He pulled his name out of draft last season and will be in the mix as a draft-and-stash prospect in the second round, possibly late first if his shooting and point guard skills come along far enough.

14. Ron Baker, Wichita State (6-4, 220) Age: 23*
Baker has been a steady part of the Shockers backcourt for the last couple of seasons, where he plays more of an off-guard role next to Fred VanVleet. However, due to Baker's ballhandling ability and overall heady style of play, it is possible he could make the conversion to point guard, where his size, strength, and shooting ability could become a real asset. A Senior, Baker isn't a high upside prospect, but has a chance to settle in as a solid depth piece in the NBA.

15. Isaiah Taylor, Texas (6-1, 170) Age: 21
After a breakout Freshman season, Isaiah Taylor had a down Sophomore year due to both injuries and poor play. More of a scorer than a passer, Taylor makes his living driving to the basket and getting to the line. Unless he develops more of a jumpshot or becomes a better distributor, Taylor is probably too small and skinny to score the way he does in the NBA and not big enough to play as a shooting guard. However, in a more player-friendly system under new coach Shaka Smart, Taylor could flourish.

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Wednesday, October 21, 2015

2015-16 NBA Season Preview: Individual Awards

Predicting awards is a futile effort at best, injuries and uncontrollable circumstances change too much in-season, but it is a fun exercise that can give a decent watchlist of individual players and coaches for the season to come.

Coach of the Year: Stan Van Gundy, Pistons

Basically, this award could go to a coach that wins a lot of games (Steve Kerr, Billy Donovan, David Blatt, Gregg Popovich) or one that makes a big leap in wins from last year, like Stan Van Gundy might in Detroit. Stan Van is a really good coach and appears to have the type of team he wants this season. The Pistons are a hard team to peg, they could be a playoff team or bottom out, a bet on Stan Van for coach of the year is a bet for the former.

Most Improved Player: Brad Beal, SG Wizards
While this award generally goes to a player coming into a larger role, Beal is now going to be playing in a more wide-open system with more 3-point shooting and space for driving, which happens to suit Beal's game perfectly. Beal could average 18-20 points a game making 2.5+ threes a game. Reggie Jackson is another strong choice after he put up big numbers once traded he was traded to the Pistons last season. A full season running the show in Phoenix could lead to a breakout performance for Eric Bledsoe. Damien Lillard could see his shots go way up an average 27-30 points a game as the only returning starter in Portland.

Sixth Man of the Year: Isaiah Thomas, PG Celtics
This season marks a little bit of a passing of the torch for sixth men in the NBA, with Jamal Crawford aging and losing his role, while incumbent Lou Williams is now on a team that looks to be pretty bad. That leaves Isaiah Thomas as the clear front-runner for an award that usually goes to the shot-happy, defense-averse combo guard that averages the most points per game. A couple of big men could also be contenders for the award: Enes Kanter could put up big points and redound totals for Oklahoma City if he comes off the bench, while Houston's Donates Motiejunas will bring a different package of skills than presumed starters Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones.

Rookie of the Year: Jahlil Okafor, C Sixers

This is a pretty easy, logical choice. Okafor is going to be the centerpiece of Philadelphia's offense and play all the minutes he can handle. This will mean lots of points and rebounds, which means rookie of the year votes. Emmanuel Mudiay, Karl-Anthony Towns, or Stanley Johnson might have better overall seasons, factoring both role and defense, but Okafor should be a low-post force on an East coast team that many voters will see, and sadly that matters. One possible sleeper: if injuries ravage Chicago's frontcourt, or they decide to trade one of their bigs, Bobby Portis could put up big numbers, given the minutes

Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert, C, Jazz
As good as Kawhi Leonard, Draymond Green, Tim Duncan, DeAndre Jordanand others were last year, a full season of Rudy Gobert would easily have been the defensive player of the year. Provided Gobert provides a repeat performance, the award is his to lose. The usual suspects will still be in the mix, but Gobert is the favorite by quite a margin.

Most Valuable Player: James Harden, SG, Rockets
Harden was close to winning MVP last year and should be even better, more efficient this season with Ty Lawson on board and a healthier season from the rest of the Rockets supporting cast. Steph Curry should be amazing once again, but voter fatigue is a really thing and some of the novelty of Curry's style of play may have worn of for some. Anthony Davis will probably still be the best player in the NBA (at least statistically if not otherwise) but the Pelicana will probably push for the seventh seed in the west at best. Both Kevin Durant and LeBron James obviously have the ability to win the award, but they are likely to be rested enough games to take them out of the running for serious consideration.

All-NBA First Team
G: Steph Curry, Warriors
G: James Harden, Rockets
F: Lebron James, Cavaliers
F: Kevin Durant, Thunder
C: Anthony Davis, Pelicans
Cheating a bit putting Davis at center, but can anyone deny these are the 5 best players in the NBA?

All-NBA Second Team
G: John Wall, Wizards
G: Russell Westbrook
F: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
F: Blake Griffin, Clippers
C: Mark Gasol, Grizzlies
Wall is the only newish name here, but he was all-NBA caliber last season and should be only better this year, possibly MVP-quality in the Wizards new-look offense. Gasol/Cousins and Paul/Westbrook are a bit of a toss-up.

All-NBA Third Team
G: Chris Paul, Clippers
G: Goran Dragic, Heat
F: Chris Bosh, Heat
F: Paul George, Pacers
C: DeMarcus Cousins, Kings
Damian Lillard might lead the NBA in scoring, but Portland could be pretty bad. Dragic was All-NBA two years ago when he was allowed to run the show, but he needs to be stay mostly healthy. Sleeper: Gordon Heyward.

First Team All-Defense
G: Mike Conley, Grizzlies
G: Tony Allen, Grizzlies
F: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
F: Draymond Green, Warriors
C: Rudy Gobert, Jazz

Second Team All-Defense
G: John Wall, Wizards
G: Jimmy Butler, Bulls
F: DeMarre Carroll, Raptors
F: Tim Duncan, Spurs
C: Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

All-Rookie First Team
G: Emmanuel Mudiay, Nuggets
G: Mario Hezonja, Magic
F: Stanley Johnson, Detroit
F: Karl-Anthony Towns
C: Jahlil Okafor, Sixers

All-Rookie Second Team
G: Raul Neto, Jazz
G: D'Angelo Russell, Lakers
F: Bobby Portis, Bulls
F: Nemanja Bjelica, Timberwolves
C: Myles Turner, Pacers

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2015-16 NBA Season Preview: Team Predictions

Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
1. Toronto Raptors (1)
2. Boston Celtics (9)
3. New York Knicks (10)
4. Brooklyn Nets (14)
5. Philadelphia 76ers (15)
Why: Picking the Celtics to miss the playoffs was one of the hardest decisions this year, but I think they are definitively worse than the top 7 in the East and the Pistons are my pick, no matter how much of a long-shot, to have a surprise turnaround season. I actually think the Celtics are more likely to make the playoffs, but predictions are much more fun when you don't go with the most likely outcomes. The Raptors as the top overall team is a bet that improved defense and a weak division will lead to a lot of regular season wins.

Central Division
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
2. Chicago Bulls (5)
3. Milwaukee Bucks (7)
4. Detroit Pistons (8)
5. Indiana Pacers (13)
Why: At this point, despite being (when healthy) the best team in the conference, the Cavs injuries are reaching absurd levels and it is getting harder to believe in any of their top 3 players to stay healthy, not to mention the rest of their roster and the Tristan Thompson affair. The Bulls will have some growing pains and be better than the fifth best team after the All-Star break. I love Indiana's coaching and think Paul George is a top 15 player in the NBA, but their frontcourt is such a mess otherwise and their defense could be a mess.

Southeast Division
1. Miami Heat (3)
2. Washington Wizards (4)
3. Atlanta Hawks (6)
4. Charlotte Hornets (11)
5. Orlando Magic (12)
Why: The Heat I think will pace themselves this season and try to be fully healthy come playoff time, but their starting lineup is so talented and for the first time in a while, they may have some legitimate depth. Atlanta is going to fall off, but not as much as some think, finishing sixth is more a vote of confidence in the improvements the teams above them made. If not for the Michael Kidd-Gilchrist injury Charlotte would have been my 8-seed, as is I think they will struggle to defend consistently.

Western Conference
Pacific
1. Golden State Warriors (2)
2. Los Angeles Clippers (5)
3. Phoenix Suns (8)
4. Sacramento Kings (12)
5. Los Angeles Lakers (13)
Why: The Clippers will still win a ton of games and could easily have the best record in the West, but I really doubt we'll see another 82-game season from Chris Paul. The Warriors are still the best team in the NBA, but injuries are more likely to bite them this season and perhaps a bit of a championship hangover, just enough to knock them from the top overall seed. 

Southwest
1. Houston Rockets (3)
2. San Antonio Spurs (4)
3. Memphis Grizzlies (6)
4. New Orleans Pelicans (9)
5. Dallas Mavericks (10)
Why: Both the Pelicans and Mavericks have the potential to make the playoffs, but injuries are already a huge problem and don't seem likely to go away. The Spurs are still probably going to play more for the postseason and not worry too much about seeding as long as they get home court advantage.

Northwest
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (1)
2. Utah Jazz (7)
3. Denver Nuggets (11)
4. Portland Trailblazers (14)
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (15)
Why: The Thunder are locked and loaded for a massive season with a healthy Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka and more depth across the board. Mediocre or worse teams I think are just going to be blown off the floor by this team. The Blazers might make this prediction look bad, but I don't like how their team fits together and could really be a mess on both ends.

Playoffs
Eastern Conference First Round
Raptors over Pistons
Cavaliers over Hawks
Heat over Bucks
Wizards over Bulls
Why: Chalk.
 
Western Conference First Round
Thunder over Suns
Warriors over Jazz
Rockets over Grizzlies
Spurs over Clippers
Why: Chalk again, but this year home court again makes the difference in Spurs/Clippers but with the Spurs advancing this time.

Eastern Conference Second Round
Wizards over Raptors
Heat over Cavaliers
Why: Let me be clear, I think the Cavaliers are still the favorite to reach the Finals out of the East, but predictions are more fun when you take chances and there is a distinctly non-zero chance the Heat are definitively more healthy than the Cavaliers come playoff time. Paul Pierce is gone, but the Wizards are still a bad match-up for Toronto and seem to have their number. 

Western Conference Second Round
Thunder over Spurs
Warriors over Rockets
Why: The Thunder when healthy have gotten the better of San Antonio, same with the Warriors and Rockets. Both series would be very close though.

Eastern Conference Finals
Heat over Wizards
Why: The Heat could make this look terrible if injuries really crop up but I believe in their coaching and talent.

Western Conference Finals
Thunder over Warriors
Why: This series, if it happens, would easily be my most anticipated event of the season. The Warriors are probably a better team, but I think home court and Durant would make the difference if things play out this way.

The Finals
Thunder over Heat
Why: A rematch of the 2012 Finals that lacks some bite sans LeBron, however it would still be a really fun series that ultimately has the Thunder finally winning the championship.

Again, these predictions are the most likely outcomes but they are a mix of probability, gut instinct, and some wildness just for fun.

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Saturday, July 4, 2015

2015 Draft Review: Dallas Mavericks

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Devin Harris/Raymond Felton
SG: Wes Matthews
SF: Chandler Parsons/Justin Anderson
PF: Dirk Nowitzki/Dwight Powell
C: DeAndre Jordan

2015 Free Agents
C Bernard James (RFA)
F Al-Farouq Aminu
G J.J. Barea 
C Tyson Chandler
G Monta Ellis
SF Richard Jefferson
PG Rajon Rondo
C Greg Smith
PF Amar'e Stoudemire
F Charlie Villanueva

What They Did On Draft Night 
Drafted Virginia forward Justin Anderson 21st overall
The Mavericks rarely use their draft picks and literally haven't developed any of them in recent years, so I wouldn't get my hopes too high that Justin Anderson is on the Mavericks at the end of his rookie contract, but that doesn't mean he can't have a successful NBA career. If Anderson isn't traded, he could be an important part of the Mavericks rotation soon because Dallas has a ton invested in their starting lineup, but little depth elsewhere. Anderson is also the type of player Dallas needs, a strong defensive-minded NBA athlete that can guard multiple positions and cover for some of their less effective defensive players. Anderson can play shooting guard, wing, and power forward so he can fill in for either Dirk Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons, or Wes Matthews. That matters because Dirk is 37 and both Parsons and Matthews are coming off of serious injuries. Where Anderson will really become valuable for Dallas is if his shooting last season was not a fluke and he can make threes at an above-average rate. Pick-and-rolls/pops with DeAndre Jordan and Dirk respectively will be a major part of the Mavs offense, so the spacing Anderson can give will give those players some extra room to operate.

Drafted Indian center Satnam Singh Bhamara 52nd overall
While there are definitely some ulterior motives in the drafting of Bhamara, the first Indian player to ever be drafted, the Mavericks are committed to develop him in the D-League. A 7-2, 290 pound nineteen year-old, Singh needs to first improve his body to increase mobility and vertical explosiveness, plodding centers are a dying breed in the NBA, then it is a matter of gaining skills. Bhamara is huge, but so is Roy Hibbert, and that gains players nothing without footwork, touch, body positioning, and vertical force. Satnam pushed around much smaller players in high school, something that isn't going to serve him much at the next level.

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2015 Draft Review: Toronto Raptors

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Kyle Lowry/Delon Wright
SG: DeMar DeRozan/Terrence Ross/Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll/Bruno Caboclo
PF: Patrick Patterson/James Johnson
C: Jonas Valenciunas/Lucas Nogueira

2015 Free Agents
SF Landry Fields
PF Tyler Hansbrough
C Chuck Hayes
PF Amir Johnson
C Greg Steimsma 
G Lou Williams

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Utah point guard Delon Wright 20th Overall
After trading Greivis Vasquez, the Raptors needed a backup point guard and had the chance to select one that complimented Kyle Lowry better while also improving the team's biggest weakness. Delon Wright can legitimately play point guard, but has the size to defend wings meaning he can play alongside Lowry as well, relieving some of Toronto's reliance on his playmaking and hopefully keeping him from wearing down. Wright is also an excellent defender, a huge upgrade over what Vasquez offered on that end, that should help improve the Raptor's defense when he is on the floor. Wright is 23, so basically a finished product, but ready to play basically right away and could form a nice second unit backcourt combo with Terrence Ross, who compliments Wright's one big weakness: shooting.

Traded Greivis Vasquez to Milwaukee for Norman Powell and a 2016 conditional first-round pick
Getting a first round pick of any kind for a backup on an expiring deal is a good move, especially when you have a ready made replacement that fits you team better available to you in the draft. Toronto also got back the draft rights to the 46th pick, which the used on Norman Powell. The idea behind drafting Powell is similar to that of Wright: find more creators that can get to the rim and take some pressure off of Kyle Lowry. Powell also somewhat duplicates what Lou Williams brought to the team, so if he departs in free agency, Toronto at least has a creative scorer type to try as a potential replacement.

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2015 Draft Review: Washington Wizards

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: John Wall/Ramon Sessions
SG: Bradley Beal/Martell Webster
SF: Otto Porter Jr./Jared Dudley/Kelly Oubre
PF: Nene/Kris Humphries/DeJuan Blair/Aaron White
C: Marcin Gortat

2015 Free Agents
SF Rasual Butler
PG Will Bynum
PF Drew Gooden
F Paul Pierce (player option)
C Kevin Seraphin
G Garrett Temple (player option)

What a They Did On Draft Night 
Traded up to Draft Kansas wing Kelly Oubre 15th overall
The Wizards traded some second rounders to move up four spots and draft a talented project that could develop into a tremendous fit with their core. Oubre is an excellent physical specimen with explosiveness in every direction and a 7-2 wingspan. He isn't devoid of skill either, Oubre shoots well and can attack in line drives. Barring a flame-out, Oubre should develop into at least a very good 3-and-D guy with the chance for more as he learns the game, develops a mid-range game and gets a little more wiggle with his drives. It may take a year or two, but Oubre could really be a great fit with John Wall: spacing the floor, running in transition, and switching defensively. He might not be ready for a big role from day one, but if the Wizards are patient, the might have very valuable contributor.

Drafted Iowa forward Aaron White 49th overall
White is another potentially excellent fit with the Wizards who has a good chance to make the roster and even get some playing time eventually. White's best attributes are running the floor and finishing at the rim, but Jan Vesely he is not. White shot 36% from three last season (albiet on a limited number of attempts) and 82% from the line, hinting at some stretch-four potential. It's not hard to see how a power forward that is great in transition and can shoot fits with the Wizards. Defense is more of a question, but White moves well and could be solid defending perimeter based bigs, but might struggle against physical post players.

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2015 Draft Review: Milwaukee Bucks

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Michael Carter-Williams/Greivis Vasquez/Tyler Ennis
SG: Khris Middleton/O.J. Mayo/Jerryd Bayless/Rashad Vaughn
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo/Damien Ingles
PF: Jabari Parker/Johnny O'Bryant III
C: Greg Monroe/Zaza Pachulia/John Henson/Miles Plumlee

What They Did On Draft Night 
Drafted UNLV shooting guard Rashad Vaughn 17th overall
Milwaukee was clearly looking towards next summer, when O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless come off the books, with their selection of Vaughn, who does one thing well, and that is create shots for himself. Vaughn is just 18, so he can grow and develop so much more, but right now he is a questionable shot taker who is able to make said shots at an above-average rate. He isn't a great athlete so the worry is that those shots will be harder to create and to make once bigger, stronger, longer, more athletic defenses get the idea you aren't going to pass much. This is especially worrisome in Milwaukee, which has a ton of talent players, but not ones that are exactly bursting with shooting ability. That's going to close down the space even more. Vaughn has a lot of ability, but he is going to have to evolve into a better decision-maker and more team-oriented player in the NBA.

Traded the 46th pick and a conditional 2016 first round pick to Toronto for Greivis Vasquez
I like Vasquez as a player and he fills a need for the Bucks, but with just one year left on his deal, a first round pick is an overpay. The pick comes from the Clippers and will likely be in the bottom third of the draft, but a one year rental of a career backup with some significant flaws in his game is a lot. Milwaukee should have been able to get more, if they were patient. That aside, Vasquez is a good fit because he can really shoot (and Michael Carter-Williams really can't) while also distributing well and scoring with a crafty midrange game, just don't ask him to score at the rim. His biggest flaw, defense, will be somewhat masked by the Bucks system and versatile, rangy defenders. Honestly, unless Carter-Williams really takes a big step forward, I wouldn't be surprised if Vasquez was finishing most games by seasons end, if not starting them.

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2015 Draft Review: Boston Celtics

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Marcus Smart/Isaiah Thomas/Terry Rozier/Phil Pressey/Marcus Thornton
SG: Avery Bradley/R.J. Hunter/James Young/Chris Babb
SF: Jae Crowder/Evan Turner/Gerald Wallace
PF: Amir Johnson/Kelly Olynyk/Jonas Jerebko
C:  Tyler Zeller/Jared Sullinger/Jordan Mickey

2015 Free Agents
F Luigi Datome (RFA)
PF Brandon Bass


What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Louisville point guard Terry Rozier 16th overall
I understand what Danny Ainge and Boston are doing, trying to collect assets and backup plans for those assets, but I think drafting Terry Rozier was a step too far, especially considering he wasn't remotely the best prospect available. Adding Rozier and later Marcus Thornton gives the Celtics six guards 6-4 or shorter, none of which is a real, true NBA level point guard. They are gritty, but half can't shoot and the other half can't distribute or finish. Rozier is a solid backup point guard prospect in certain situations because he can pressure the ball and push the tempo in transition. However, he is limited distributing, struggles shooting, and doesn't finish well, so he fits right in with Boston's backcourt. What he does well is good enough to make him a solid backup NBA player, but you want more than that from a mid-first round pick, especially when there were potentially above-average NBA starters available at the sixteenth pick. Luckily (and luck is what it was) Boston was able to get good value that also fit their needs later on in the draft.

Drafted Georgia State shooting guard R.J. Hunter 28th overall
The opposite of Rozier, Hunter is exactly what Boston's offense needs: shooting and size. Hunter's ability to make threes at a high rate will be crucial to Boston's offense, which relies on Smart and Isaiah Thomas' dribble drives and pick-and-roll with Tyler Zeller. Hunter's ability will spread out the defense, forcing them to avoid overcommiting with help defense or be burned from three. Hunter isn't one dimensional either, he can handle the ball a little, and even ran pick-and-roll some last season. Defense may be a little bit more of a project, Hunter needs to get stronger and improve his technique, but Boston has some strong perimeter defenders to help cover for him was he develops on that end.

Drafted LSU power forward Jordan Mickey 33rd overall
The Celtics were woeful protecting the rim last season, so clearly a priority had to be put on finding some shot-blockers. The Celtics signing Amir Johnson and drafting Jordan Mickey was a good start. Mickey is undersized but has long arms and very good bounce, he had good instincts and is very mobile, meaning in time he should be good guarding both the rim and on the perimeter. My one concern with Mickey's defensive profile is that I am not sure he can guard centers or bigger power forwards, he might be overwhelmed unless he gains more lower body strength, while alsobeing susceptible to just getting shot over the top of occasionally. Mickey's role in Boston is unclear due to all the so-so pieces they have, but he and Johnson are easily their best interior defenders and Mickey is good enough around the basket and facing up a little that he won't hurt the offense.

Drafted William & Mary point guard Marcus Thornton 45th overall
Another small guard for Boston, at least Marcus Thornton can shoot. He is a two guard in the body of a point guard that can really score when given the opportunity, but I am not sure what else he brings to the table. Due to the glut of guards on Boston's roster, Thornton faces an uphill battle making the team, but should thrive in the D-League and be available for a call up when one is needed.

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2015 Draft Review: Brooklyn Nets

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Deron Williams/Jarrett Jack/Steve Blake/Shane Larkin
SG: Joe Johnson/Markel Brown
SF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson/Bojan Bogdanovic/Sergey Karasev/Earl Clark
PF: Thaddeus Young/Thomas Robinson/Chris McCullough
C: Brook Lopez/Cory Jefferson

2015 Free Agents
C Jerome Jordan (RFA)
PF Mirza Teletovic (RFA)
SG Alan Anderson (player option)

What They Did On Draft Night
Traded Mason Plumlee and the 41st pick to Portland for Steve Blake and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
The Nets began their offseason by clearing up their awkward frontcourt, where Mason Plumlee was probably too good to be a backup but couldn't play alongside Brook Lopez. Not long ago, Plumlee was basically untouchable in Brooklyn's eyes, but his value fell both due to a dip in play and a lack longterm role on the team. Despite being a twenty-third pick, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has a really good chance of sticking in the league because he is such am excellent perimeter defender and does so many things well offensively, even if he can't shoot with range. Hollis-Jefferson landed in a perfect spot because Nets coach Lionel Hollins, who coached Tony Allen in Memphis to three All-Defense teams, has experience using great defensive players with limited range. Plus, Hollis-Jefferson is easier to hide offensively than Allen because he can play power forward. Assuming the Nets don't sign another wing, Brooklyn will have a promising young pair of wings that compliment each other well: Hollis-Jefferson and the more offensively-minded Bojan Bogdanovic.

Drafted Syracuse power forward Chris McCullough 29th overall
The Nets, who are picking 29th because Atlanta had the right to swap picks via the Joe Johnson trade, got a lottery talent in Chris McCullough, but also a project coming off an ACL tear. It's not hard to see how McCullough fits in the modern NBA: he's mobile, excellent blocking shots, with an intriguing offensive game. Provided his knee is 100%, McCullough's first job is improving his 199 pound frame (which will be easier when not rehabbing) so he has the strength to be a good on-ball defender to go with help defense. McCullough's best consistent offensive skill is smooth, slippery athletic ability diving to the basket in pick-and-roll but his jumpshot looks very good, it just needs become more consistent. I am surprised the Nets gave McCullough a guaranteed contract via the first round pick because of his knee injury, but if he pans out Brooklyn will have a valuable rotation piece that compliments their current frontcourt well because he can space the floor.

Drafted Argentinian wing Juan Pablo Vaulet 39th overall
A super draft sleeper, Juan Vaulet wasn't on many radars when he elected to remain in the draft, but a closer look at the 19 year-old revealed an athletic, physically gifted wing. Vaulet is most likely a stash, but with a potential shot at making the NBA because he has an NBA frame, long arms, and above-average athletic ability. Vaulet attacks with an excellent first step, and though he is still learning what to do when he beats his man, has shown playmaker potential. Vaulet's next step is improving his jumpshot, tightening his handle, and gaining strength. It might not be for another couple years, but Vaulet could definitely make the NBA.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Joe Johnson to Chicago for Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, and Kirk Hinrich

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Friday, July 3, 2015

2015 Draft Review: Oklahoma City Thunder

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Russell Westbrook/D.J. Augustin/Cameron Payne
SG: Anthony Morrow/Dion Waiters/
SF: Kevin Durant/Kyle Singler/Andre Roberson/Josh Huestis/Steve Novak
PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Perry Jones III
C: Steven Adams/Mitch McGary/Dakari Johnson

2015 Free Agents
C Enes Kanter (RFA)

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Murray State point guard Cameron Payne 14th overall
The Thunder seem to have their sights on Cameron Payne since early in the process, and the got their guy. It makes sense since backup point guard was one of the few longterm needs they had, with D.J. Augustin set to become a free agent next summer. This is an ideal situation for Payne because there won't be any pressure on him to come in and be the guy at point guard, instead he'll have a role and be able to play off of the Thunder's stars. Payne fits well in Oklahoma City because he is a good spot-up shooter that can play off the ball when sharing the backcourt with Russell Westbrook, but is also able to take the reins as the lead guard with Westbrook on the bench. It is also good for Payne that he won't have to shoulder starters minutes any time soon, he needs to get stronger before that will be a good idea.

Drafted Kentucky center Dakari Johnson 48th overall
Due to the incredible amount of talent on the Thunder's roster, Dakari Johnson is not likely to see a single minute of action this season, but will play in the D-League the whole year. Johnson is an old school, low-post center that plays very much below the rim. Johnson rebounds well and has great size, but will likely struggle on both ends of the court due to his well below average athletic ability. Playing in the D-League will benefit Johnson because he can learn to use his size to compensate in a low pressure environment.

What To Do Next
The Thunder want to bring back Enes Kanter and Kyle Singler, but besides that their roster is full so there isn't much else they can do unless they look for a trade involving D.J. Augustin in order to clear the way for Payne. Some of the periphery young talent on the roster could also be packaged with a pic or one of the Euro players Oklahoma City has the rights to in order to upgrade the shooting guard spot or clear room for a signing.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
D.J. Augustin to Washington for a second round pick

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2015 Draft Review: Phoenix Suns

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Eric Bledsoe/Archie Goodwin
SG: Brandon Knight/Devin Booker/Jerel McNeal
SF: P.J. Tucker/T.J. Warren/Danny Granger
PF: Markieff Morris
C: Tyson Chandler/Alex Len

2015 Free Agents
G Brandon Knight (RFA)
C Earl Barron
SG Gerald Green
SG Marcus Thornton
C Brandan Wright

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Kentucky shooting guard Devin Booker 13th overall
Phoenix was in the top third in 3-point field goal attempts last season, but the bottom third in 3-point percentage, so it isn't hard to see how an excellent three-point shooter fits in their offense. This is an ideal situation for Booker also, because Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe will handle almost all of the play-making duties, so the pressure won't be on him to be a shot-creator before he is ready. Booker is the youngest player in the draft, just 18, so there is some definite physical projection left in his body. Early on, Booker can be used at a spot-up shooter and work off of screens until his ball-handling ability increases to the point he can create a little more offense for himself. Booker is a very smart player that should learn the Suns system quickly and keep the ball moving when a shot isn't there.

What To Do Next?
The Suns have some cap space, so there room for a splash. They're meeting with LaMarcus Aldridge so that is obviously priority number one. There are contingency options if that doesn't work out. If Tobias Harris is done in Orlando, he could be a solution at both forward spots and would really flourish in a wide open offense. David West wouldn't be a huge splash, but he would help Phoenix short term, while benefiting himself with the Suns excellent training staff. A trade is also a possibility, targeting Danilo Gallinari perhaps.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Markieff Morris to Denver for Gallinari

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2015 Draft Review: Utah Jazz

2015-16 Depth Chart 
PG: Dante Exum/Trey Burke/Bryce Cotten
SG: Alec Burks/Rodney Hood/Olivier Hanlan
SF: Gordon Heyward/Elijah Millsap/Chris Johnson
PF: Derrick Favors/Trevor Booker/Grant Jerrett
C: Rudy Gobert/Trey Lyles/Jack Cooley

2015 Free Agents
SG Joe Ingles (RFA)
F Jeremy Evans

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Kentucky power forward Trey Lyles 11th overall
Considering how much depth and talent Utah has on its roster, taking a shot on a developmental player like Trey Lyes make sense. Lyles isn't a raw player at all, he just needs some time to iron-out the inconsistencies in his game, time he should be able to get in Utah. The Jazz said they envision Lyles as a stretch-four, which is ironic considering right now he is most effective posting-up, moving off the ball, and diving to the basket. Shooting is the lynchpin to Lyles game, his stroke looks very good, but the results were poor during his one season at Kentucky. In high school he shot very well up to 17-feet, but there is no guarantee that the shot develops, leaving the Jazz with a crafty but limited scorer without the athleticism to be an above-average defender. That's not a great return from a lottery pick. However, Utah has done well with all their young players in recent years and Lyles stroke is solid.

Drafted Boston College combo guard Olivier Hanlan 42nd overall
The Jazz went for a more ready-to-contribute option in the second round, drafting a combo guard that should be able to provide quality depth backing up both guard spots. Hanlan is a well-rounded, score-first offensive player that can distribute well enough to occasionally pass as a point guard. Utah's offense frequently plays through Gordon Heyward uses a lot of ball-movement, so Hanlan can fit in a point guard despite not being a pure distributor. Hanlan's ability to both drive and shoot is a nice option to have off the bench, someone who can get hot and carry a second unit every once in a while without completely being a gunner.

What To Do Next?
Utah probably has the deepest roster of promising young talent in the NBA, so there isn't a ton they really need to do this offseason. One area of need is a back-up small forward, preferably one that can shoot. Mike Dunleavy is still a great shooter and would inject a little age and experience to a very young core. Marco Belinelli would also be an ice fit with what Utah wants to do, as would Jared Dudley, who could also play some stretch-four.

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2015 Draft Review: Indiana Pacers

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: George Hill
SG: Monta Ellis/C.J. Miles/Joseph Young
SF: Paul George/Solomon Hill/Damjan Rudez
PF: ???
C: Roy Hibbert/Ian Mahinmi/Myles Turner

2015 Free Agents
F Chris Copeland (RFA)
C Shayne Whittington (RFA)
PF Lavoy Allen
PF Luis Scola
PG Donald Sloan
SG Rodney Stuckey
PG C.J. Watson
PF David West

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Texas center Myles Turner 11th overall
Five years ago, Indiana drafted an uber-talented prospect with some superficial, quantifiable concerns that caused him to be drafted tenth overall, nine picks after he should have been. Now Paul George is one of the best players in the NBA and Indiana looks poised to have similar success with Myles Turner. Roy Hibbert is on the way out by trade or free agency this summer or next, so center is a place of long-term need in Indiana. The Pacers want to play a faster, wide-open system of offense next season, which is something Turner should help them do, especially in comparison to Hibbert. Turner is knocked for his awkward running gait, but he isn't bad running the floor, and compared to slow-as-erosion Hibbert, Turner is Usain Boltian. This is upgrade in agility will also help Indiana's screen game be more effective because Turner, as the roll-man, will be more of a threat to score. Where Turner will really help Indiana open up their offense is with his ability to shoot, drawing the opposing center away from the basket and punishing smaller defenders that switch pick-and-pops by shooting right over them with an essentially unblockable jumper. Turner is a consistently good shooter from mid-range with no reason to suspect that within a year or two, he will be able to make threes. Defensively, Turner can't match peak-Hibbert level, but should be an above-average rim protector with more mobility defending on the perimeter. It may take a year or so for Turner to get acclimated to the league, he is just 19, but the reward of an above-average defensive center with floor spacing ability, is quite nice.

Drafted Oregon combo guard Joseph Young 43rd overall
Indiana's second round pick is more ready to contribute from day one, but obviously with less upside. Joseph Young is a pure-shooting combo guard that can really light up the scoreboard when he gets going. This kind of dynamic shooter/scorer is something that Indiana has lacked off their bench for a long time and should be a nice option when they need some spacing. The Pacers are a perfect landing spot for the 6-2 Young because of George Hill's ability to defend shooting guards, leaving the apposing point guard for Young to guard but without having to use him as a primary playmaker.

What To Do Next?
Trading Roy Hibbert for whatever they can get needs to be Indiana's top priority, not because Hibbert is a bad guy but because if he doesn't fit their current direction, giving him playing time will only serve to take minutes away from players that are their future and stall some the development of cohesiveness. Indiana simply cannot play the style they want with Hibbert on the floor. Another benefit to dealing Hibbert is hopefully creating some cap space to upgrade their roster. Stretching his contract is also another option. A power forward such as Darrell Arthur would be an option to fill that hole. Even though he is a restricted free agent, Tobias Harris could make a devastation interchangeable forward combination with Paul George. Another potential way to fill the hole at power forward is to move Paul George there and sign a wing to move into that spot.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Hibbert to Boston for a first round pick (or Gerald Wallace)
OR
Hibbert to Portland for Chris Kamen and Gerald Henderson

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2015 Draft Review: Miami Heat

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Mario Chalmers/Shabazz Napier
SG: Dwyane Wade/Josh Richardson/Tyler Johnson/Zoran Dragic
SF: Luol Deng/Justise Winslow/James Ennis/Bill Henry Walker
PF: Chris Bosh/Josh McRoberts/Udonis Haslam
C: Hassan Whiteside/Chris Anderson

2015 Free Agents
F Michael Beasley (team option)
PG Goran Dragic (player option)

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Duke wing Justise Winslow 10th overall
The Heat benefited from the draft falling favorably to them, getting a perfect fit for their culture and needs. Justise Winslow isn't likely to become the future star some suggest, but he can be a high-level role player on a championship level team. Early on in his career, Winslow will probably not be a consistent threat from three-point range or creating his own shot starting out, but in Miami he can play off their other creators in transition and off the ball, until his offensive game develops more overall consistency. Where Miami will really benefit from Winslow is on the defensive end; Luol Deng (if he returns) is the closest thing they have to a lockdown wing defender so this year, which is a pretty important part of a contending team. Despite some of the noise in his shooting numbers and offensive creation ability, Winslow has always been and likely will always be an ace wing defender. He is athletic with very good lateral agility and strength, but most importantly Winslow is committed and focused on that end. On a different team, one looking for a number one or two option, Winslow might disappoint. However, in this situation, with potentially Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, and Josh McRoberts all there to move the ball and get Winslow some easy shots, he should excel as a defender/hustle player with potential for more offense in a couple of years.

Drafted Tennessee shooting guard Josh Richardson 40th overall
The Heat got another great fit for their team in the second round with Josh Richardson, who is sort of a older, lower upside version of Winslow. He is a solid, likely league-average NBA shooter that is also a good, committed defensive player that has enough ball skills and passing ability to be a secondary playmaker in a second unit. That ability makes him a little more valuable than the average good, not great shooting/defending 3-and-D because when he catches the ball, he is a threat to penetrate and pass in certain situations, instead of just having to shoot or move the ball along. This will really work in Miami, that loves manipulating defenses with passing and dribble-drives.

What To Do Next?
Miami's first priority should be retaining the services of Dragic. Beyond that they don't have much cap flexibility to make any free agent moves beyond minimum deals, but they could get back a contributor by dealing Mario Chalmers or Shabazz Napier for another position in need of depth. Chalmers is an expiring deal so he should be easy to deal to a team looking for a back-up point guard that can shoot. Targeting another backup big man or wing would make sense.

A bonus trade sure to never happen
Mario Chalmers and Zoran Gragic to the Hornets for Marvin Williams

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2015 Draft Review: Charlotte Hornets

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Kemba Walker/Brian Roberts
SG: Nicolas Batum/Jeremy Lamb/Troy Daniels
SF: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist/P.J. Hairston
PF: Frank Kaminsky/Marvin Williams
C: Al Jefferson/Cody Zeller/Spencer Hawes

2015 Free Agents
C Bismack Biyombo (RFA)
SF Jeff Taylor (RFA)
PF Jason Maxiell
PG Mo Williams

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Wisconsin forward/center Frank Kaminsky 9th overall 
I completely understand the Charlotte drafting Frank Kaminsky with the ninth pick, I don't think it was a reach and he gives the Hornets exactly what they need most. I also completely understand not wanting to take Justise Winslow when he duplicates so much of what Michael Kidd-Gilchrist already does and because Charlotte just traded for both Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lamb. I am just not on board with the process that passes a superior talent on the based on those reasons. That said, Kaminsky is perfect for Charlotte, who made the playoffs two years ago in large part due to Josh McRoberts shooting and passing at power forward. McRoberts left after that year and Charlotte was unable to repeat their success. Kaminsky isn't the athlete McRoberts is, but he is a better shooter and passer who should slide right into that same spacer/distributor role. 

What To Do Next?
Charlotte did a lot of their work early, trading for Spencer Hawes, Batum, and Lamb so they might not do much else. Another veteran shooter wouldn't go amiss and they could use bigger, dependable backup point guard like a C.J. Watson type. With Al Jefferson, Kaminsky, Cody Zeller, Hawes, and Marvin Williams all on the team, one of those players will likely be traded. Hawes would be the most financially beneficial to get rid of, but Jefferson and Williams will probably be the easiest to trade because they are expiring deals.

A bonus trade sure not to happen
Marvin Williams (or Hawes) to Washington for Martell Webster and Garrett Temple

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2015 Draft Review: Detroit Pistons

2015-16 Depth Chart
PG: Brandon Jennings/Spencer Dinwiddie
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope/Jodie Meeks/Darrun Hilliard
SF: Stanley Johnson/Reggie Bullock/Danny Granger
PF: Ersan Ilyasova/Anthony Tolliver/Marcus Morris
C: Andre Drummond/Aron Baynes

2015 Free Agents
PG Reggie Jackson (RFA)
C Joel Anthony
PG John Lucas III
SF Cartier Martin (player option)
C Greg Monroe
SF Tayshaun Prince

What They Did On Draft Night
Drafted Arizona forward Stanley Johnson 8th overall
The Piston's made a controversial but completely understandable decision to choose Stanley Johnson over Duke's Justise Winslow to fill their hole at small forward. Not only is it arguable that Johnson is a superior prospect, but he certainly fits Stan Van Gundy's system better as well. Johnson is taller, stronger, bulkier, and longer than Winslow and should legitimately be able to play power forward in the NBA as well as small forward. This is big in SVG's spread pick-and-roll offense because they can play big or small and still have four shooters on the floor. Johnson's ability to shoot off the dribble will allow him to create when playing small forward or completely devastate and power forwards that try to close out too hard. At Arizona, Johnson played out of position at shooting guard and was frequently on the floor with four other non-shooters (something his detractors conveniently ignore), so the burden was frequently on him to stretch the floor. Get him to his natural forward positions with other shooters on the floor and Johnson should be able to show more of his game. Detroit should look to acquire another small forward as insurance, but Johnson should play a bulk of the minutes at forward for Detroit. Winslow is a great prospect but he is undersized, at 6-4.5 in socks Winslow is the same height as Aaron Harrison, Lance Stephenson, Devin Booker, R.J. Hunter, Zach LaVine, Dant Exum, and Tim Hardaway Jr. among others. Most of those players are a stretch to play small forward, let alone power forward, which is flexibility that Detroit is looking for.

Drafted Villanova wing Darrun Hilliard 38th overall
Their second round pick however, is a little less defensible. Hilliard wasn't really a draftable prospect and Detroit certainly could have found a better player with an early second rounder. Hilliard can really shoot, hovering around 40% from three on a high volume of attempts his last two seasons, but besides that he doesn't really offer much. Hilliard is a below-average NBA athlete that isn't quick enough to guard twos or strong enough for small forwards, he plays hard on that end but might just not be athletic enough. Hilliard might stick as an end of the bench three-point specialist, he really can shoot.

What To Do Next?
Assuming they re-sign Reggie Jackson, finding a home for Brandon Jennings should be next on the agenda. Jennings would be an ideal bench scorer, but he may not be okay with that role, so Detroit should get what they can for him. Back-up center is an area of concern, preferably one that can shoot well enough to compliment Andre Drummond. Justin Hamilton is restricted, but would be a decent option. 

A bonus trade sure not to happen
Jennings to Indiana for C.J. Miles and Ian Mahinmi

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