Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
1. Toronto Raptors (1)
2. Boston Celtics (9)
3. New York Knicks (10)
4. Brooklyn Nets (14)
5. Philadelphia 76ers (15)
Why: Picking the Celtics to miss the playoffs was one of the hardest decisions this year, but I think they are definitively worse than the top 7 in the East and the Pistons are my pick, no matter how much of a long-shot, to have a surprise turnaround season. I actually think the Celtics are more likely to make the playoffs, but predictions are much more fun when you don't go with the most likely outcomes. The Raptors as the top overall team is a bet that improved defense and a weak division will lead to a lot of regular season wins.
Central Division
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (2)
2. Chicago Bulls (5)
3. Milwaukee Bucks (7)
4. Detroit Pistons (8)
5. Indiana Pacers (13)
Why: At this point, despite being (when healthy) the best team in the conference, the Cavs injuries are reaching absurd levels and it is getting harder to believe in any of their top 3 players to stay healthy, not to mention the rest of their roster and the Tristan Thompson affair. The Bulls will have some growing pains and be better than the fifth best team after the All-Star break. I love Indiana's coaching and think Paul George is a top 15 player in the NBA, but their frontcourt is such a mess otherwise and their defense could be a mess.
Southeast Division
1. Miami Heat (3)
2. Washington Wizards (4)
3. Atlanta Hawks (6)
4. Charlotte Hornets (11)
5. Orlando Magic (12)
Why: The Heat I think will pace themselves this season and try to be fully healthy come playoff time, but their starting lineup is so talented and for the first time in a while, they may have some legitimate depth. Atlanta is going to fall off, but not as much as some think, finishing sixth is more a vote of confidence in the improvements the teams above them made. If not for the Michael Kidd-Gilchrist injury Charlotte would have been my 8-seed, as is I think they will struggle to defend consistently.
Western Conference
Pacific
1. Golden State Warriors (2)
2. Los Angeles Clippers (5)
3. Phoenix Suns (8)
4. Sacramento Kings (12)
5. Los Angeles Lakers (13)
Why: The Clippers will still win a ton of games and could easily have the best record in the West, but I really doubt we'll see another 82-game season from Chris Paul. The Warriors are still the best team in the NBA, but injuries are more likely to bite them this season and perhaps a bit of a championship hangover, just enough to knock them from the top overall seed.
Southwest
1. Houston Rockets (3)
2. San Antonio Spurs (4)
3. Memphis Grizzlies (6)
4. New Orleans Pelicans (9)
5. Dallas Mavericks (10)
Why: Both the Pelicans and Mavericks have the potential to make the playoffs, but injuries are already a huge problem and don't seem likely to go away. The Spurs are still probably going to play more for the postseason and not worry too much about seeding as long as they get home court advantage.
Northwest
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (1)
2. Utah Jazz (7)
3. Denver Nuggets (11)
4. Portland Trailblazers (14)
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (15)
Why: The Thunder are locked and loaded for a massive season with a healthy Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka and more depth across the board. Mediocre or worse teams I think are just going to be blown off the floor by this team. The Blazers might make this prediction look bad, but I don't like how their team fits together and could really be a mess on both ends.
Playoffs
Eastern Conference First Round
Raptors over Pistons
Cavaliers over Hawks
Heat over Bucks
Wizards over Bulls
Why: Chalk.
Western Conference First Round
Thunder over Suns
Warriors over Jazz
Rockets over Grizzlies
Spurs over Clippers
Why: Chalk again, but this year home court again makes the difference in Spurs/Clippers but with the Spurs advancing this time.
Eastern Conference Second Round
Wizards over Raptors
Heat over Cavaliers
Why: Let me be clear, I think the Cavaliers are still the favorite to reach the Finals out of the East, but predictions are more fun when you take chances and there is a distinctly non-zero chance the Heat are definitively more healthy than the Cavaliers come playoff time. Paul Pierce is gone, but the Wizards are still a bad match-up for Toronto and seem to have their number.
Western Conference Second Round
Thunder over Spurs
Warriors over Rockets
Why: The Thunder when healthy have gotten the better of San Antonio, same with the Warriors and Rockets. Both series would be very close though.
Eastern Conference Finals
Heat over Wizards
Why: The Heat could make this look terrible if injuries really crop up but I believe in their coaching and talent.
Western Conference Finals
Thunder over Warriors
Why: This series, if it happens, would easily be my most anticipated event of the season. The Warriors are probably a better team, but I think home court and Durant would make the difference if things play out this way.
The Finals
Thunder over Heat
Why: A rematch of the 2012 Finals that lacks some bite sans LeBron, however it would still be a really fun series that ultimately has the Thunder finally winning the championship.
Again, these predictions are the most likely outcomes but they are a mix of probability, gut instinct, and some wildness just for fun.
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