NBA Draft: Top 30 Prospects (2/6)

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1. Jahlil Okafor, C Duke Fr. (6-11, 270)

Okafor has certainly lived up to his top billing so far this season. The kind of natural footwork and soft hands he consistently shows are rare even among NBA players, let alone a College big of Okafor's size and age. He looks easily like a 20-10 player at the next level and is the favorite because this level of production, skill set, and high floor is both safe and valueable. However, Okafor the race for the top prospect in closer than some might suspect. Okafor doesn't fit as well with uptempo offenses and the team that takes him must be willing to run a slower, post up offense. Also, despite his size, Okafor is more of a finesse offensive player, and right now his defense is frankly poor. But again, this level of ability is not something to be ignored. 

Upside: 20+ ppg, 10+ rpg, high FG%, average defense

2. D'Angelo Russell, SG Ohio State Fr. (6-5, 180)

Russell is another rare package of abilities, an top shelf shooter with excellent court vision and passing ability who can both score and set up teammates, but with the size to defend wings. Some teams might want to convert him to point guard, but I think he value is much higher as a scorer who can serve as a secondary ball handler alongside a truer point guard, much as he has at Ohio State with Shannon Scott. Russell plays similar to James Harden, but isn't nearly as strong or physical of a player, which is his main concern, he needs to get strong and finish inside more efficiently. Russell could be the top pick in the draft, especially if a team like Philadelphia or Orlando land the number one pick.

Upside: 20+ ppg, 5 rpg, 6+ apg, 45 FG%, 40% 3P%, average defense

3. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG Guandong (6-5, 200)

Mudiay has had one of the weird paths to the draft so far, decommitting from SMU to play professionally in China, where he started the season with crazy production before getting injured and sitting out since December. Whether he plays again is sort of a moot point, Mudiay will likely work out for select teams before the draft and be a top 5 pick. Mudiay's size and athleticism as a point guard compare favorable to the likes of John Wall, though Wall is a much more natural point guard, while Mudiay is more of an offensive player. Like most young point guards, Mudiay is rough around the edges, though he has the advantage of being big enough to play off guard if things don't work out, though his physical attributes aren't as special there.

Upside: 17 ppg, 5+ rpg, 5+ apg, high FT rate, above average defense

4. Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C Kentucky (6-11, 250)

Towns came into Kentucky with his offense ahead of his defense in the eyes of scouts, however at Kentucky it appears the opposite is true. Mostly, this is due to circumstance, Towns certainly has plenty of offensive skills, he can shoot, handle the ball, see the floor, and score inside, yet because of Kentucky's platoon system, depth, and ball dominant guards, Towns hasn't had the usage to show all his skills or put of superficial stats. It is his defense that has been a revelation this year, he is using his size, length, and IQ to find excellent positioning, block shots and rebound at high rate. Workout will be key for Towns, if he can show his full skillset, he could also also challenge for the top pick.

Upside: 16+ ppg, 9+ rpg, 50+ FG%, 35+ 3P%, above-average passing and defense

5. Stanley Johnson, SF Arizona Fr. (6-7, 245)

In High School, Johnson had similar strengths and weaknesses to former Wildcat Aaron Gordon: top defensive potential and versatility, high motor and competitiveness, but with questionable perimeter skills. So far however into his Freshman season, Johnson hasn't had those issues, shooting 39% from 3 while also still rebounding and playing defense at a high level. Despite being just 18 years old, Johnson is already more physically developed than many NBA players and should be able to guard positions 1 through 4 while scoring off of energy plays, slashing to the basket, and in catch-and-shoot situations. Johnson is not far off of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as an impact defender and competitor and he is already a better shooter.

Upside: 15+ ppg, 7+ rpg, well above-average defense

6. Kristaps Porzingis, PF Seville (7-0, 220)

Porzingis turned down a first round promise last year -probably from a team picking in the late teens- and the move is looking like it will pay off big time. In a draft full of big men, Porzingis may have the highest ceiling of the bunch, though perhaps with more risk than others. Bouncy and lean, Porzingis has perimeter skills -including three point range and good ball skills- as well as a soft touch, great hands and good footwork. Defensively, he can block shots but isn't at this point a plus rebounder. The risk comes from the fact that Porzingis needs to get a lot stronger to take full advantage of his offensive and defensive abilities, though at 19 it is likely he will improve his body considerably.

Upside: 16+ ppg, 7+ rebounds, 37+% from 3, above-average defense

7. Willie Cauley-Stein, C Kentucky Jr. (7-0, 240)

After two years of tantalizing with his talent, yet failing to execute basic fundamentals, Willie Cauley-Stein has started to put it all together. I say start because really, despite being one of the best players in college basketball this year, Cauley-Stein has the potential to be so much better. When it comes to the holy physical trinity (size, length, athleticism) Cauley-Stein is in the upper reaches of NBA prospects. Even if he doesn't improve anymore, he could basically be a Tyson Chandler type defender, yet who blocks more shots. Offensively he is very effective in pick-and-roll, but is slowly growing as a post player. Compared to former Wildcats centers prospects, he isn't as instinctive of a defensive player as Anthony Davis or Nerlens Noel, but is already much bigger than either of those. Cauley-Stein is stil, rough around the edges, but there is little doubt now that he will be an impact NBA player.

Upside: 10+ ppg, 10+ rpg, high FG%, elite defense

8. Myles Turner, C Texas Fr. (6-11, 240)

Turner is a polarizing prospects because he has such standout traits for both the positive and negative. On one hand, he is already an impressive shooter all the way to the three-point line, yet there are concerns he is too finesse of a player. Turner runs the floor very well, but looks awkward doing it. He blocks shots and protects the rim, but doesn't move great laterally. When Turner goes to the foul line, he is money, but he doesn't draw fouls at the kind of rate a like an athletic, 6-11 big man should. I don't buy that Turner lacks a "killer instinct" -that label has proved false too many time- but at this point he isn't as assertive as you might like to see. However, at 18 years old all that may come. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder when it comes to Turner, but it is hard to look past a big man that can both shoot and protect the rim.

Upside: 15+ ppg, 9+ rpg, above-average defense

9. Kelly Oubre, SF Kansas Fr. (6-7, 200)

After barely playing in the Jayhawks first couple of games, Oubre removed himself from Bill Self's doghouse to become full time starter for Kansas. However, despite getting plenty of minutes, Oubre has been maddeningly inconsistent so far. Some games he is all over the floor, attacking the basket and battling for rebounds, while other times barely looks engaged, content to stand at the three point line. Part of the reason for this is that he is a 19 year-old Freshman halfway through his first college season, but is is still a real concern for many teams. Oubre is such a smooth athlete and an excellent slasher yet can also play physically when it suits him, and though he jumper looks weird, it goes in plenty. I dislike the idea that a player can be "as good as he wants to be," -this is an oversimplification- Oubre has All-Star ability and can reach those with a little more consistency, similarly to the likes of Andrew Wiggins and Paul George before him.

Upside: 17+ ppg, 6+ rpg, 36% from 3, good FT rates, above-average defense

10. Mario Hezonja, SF Barcelona (6-8, 200)

After tantalizing scouts from ever so brief and inconsistent minutes off the Barcalona bench, Hezonja has finally secured a stable role on the team and hasn't disappointed. He is still young and inexperienced, but Hezonja can basically do everything you want of a wing player. Hezonja is sort of the opposite of the false European stereotype: very athletic but sometime struggling to fit into a team game. Indeed, aside from inexperience, the biggest question mark facing Hezonja is ability to play well with others and a history of some poor body language. However, he is young and the prototype of what an NBA wing should be. 

Upside: 16+ ppg, 5+ rpg, 3 apg, good FT rates, 37% from three, average defense

11. Devin Booker, SG Kentucky Fr. (6-6, 206)

Booker isn't the flashiest Kentucky prospect, but none have been better than he has so far this season. First and foremost, Booker is a lights-out shooter, nailing a robust .506% of his three-point shots (ninth best in the country) on almost 4 attempts a game. Considering he is primarily a shooter, his .524 two-point percentage is also impressive. Booker's ability to make shots in all types of situations isn't in question, however his defense is. Booker tested well athletically at UK's pro day, but there will always be lingering doubts because he doesn't look overwhelmingly physical on the court. Booker is statistically a better shooter than Klay Thompson was at Washington State, while having similar builds (Thompson is a little bigger and longer) and Booker has tested better athletically. Not saying Booker will be as good as Thompson, but both came out of college with similar strengths and weaknesses.
Upside: 14+ ppg, high 3P%, average defense

12. Justise Winslow, SF Duke Fr. (6-6, 225)
Winslow started out this season on a tear, particularly from 3-point range, then cooled off dramatically before reaching a low point, scoring 0 points and only playing 10 minutes versus St. John's. Since then his play and shooting has improved, but he is still a considerably streaky 3-point shooter. Winslow is a top level athlete who is tremendous in transition and has excellent defensive potential. Unlike many young wing prospects, he also sees the floor well and is a willing playmaker. Winslow's draft stock will rise and fall with the jumpshot because he's got a lot going for him but the jumper is the lynch-pin to holding together the top ten package. If he can gain more consistency in that area, there is nothing preventing a rise to the top 10 or higher.
Upside: 15+ ppg, 6+ rpg, high assist rate, well above-average defense

13. Kevon Looney, PF UCLA Fr. (6-9, 220)
Looney has some obvious present skills but mostly his value is based on projection. Right now, Looney is an athletic forward who does his best work on the offensive glass, where he grabs 4 a game. Offensively, Looney will show a a variety of skills at times, the ability to hit jumpers and handle the ball, though he lacks consistency in these areas. He moves well defensively and has the potential to be a better shot blocker than he is right now. Aside from the rebounding, all of these abilities can come and go for Looney, but there is optimism that he can become more consistent because he is such a intelligent player who is just starting to become the player he will be.
Upside: 14+ ppg, 10+ rpg, high OREB rate, above-average defense

14. Frank Kaminsky, PF Wisconsin Sr. (7-0, 234)
After barely playing his first two seasons at Wisconsin, Kaminsky broke out in a big way his Junior year, and has only improved as a Senior, to that point he is now a legitimate POY candidate. Kaminsky is a well-rounded offensive player with a nice post game and legitimate 3-point range on his jumpshot. Kaminsky is super efficient and smart, he basically takes the two best shots in basketball, a 3 or a shot at the rim, which he converts at .411% and .571% rates. Defensively he can block shots and moves his feet well, but isn't a intimidating interior defender. Obviously, for a soon to be 22 year old, Kaminsky's upside may be capped, but he doesn't have to improve much to a very valuable NBA contributor.
Upside: 14+ ppg, 8+ rpg, high TS%, average defense

15. Jerian Grant, PG Notre Dame Sr. (6-5, 202)
Grant was in the midst of an All-American season last year when he was ruled academically ineligible and had to sit out the rest of the season. He is back this year and better than before, a potential Player of the Year candidate. Grant has tremendous size for a point guard and the abilities to play there. He sees the floor well, can play the role of distributor or scorer and is efficient from all of areas of the floor. Due to his size, Grant can defend either guard spot and is a good enough shooter to play as a traditional shooting guard. In addition to that versatility, Grant, who is related to NBA players Harvey (father), Horace (uncle), and Jerami (brother), has elite bloodlines and a top flight athletic profile. 

Upside: 16+ ppg, 5+ rpg, 6+ apg, above-average defense

16. Jakob Poeltl, C Utah Fr. (7-0, 235)

In other drafts, a big man with Poeltl's defensive ability would be a hot commodity, however with all the talented centers in college basketball this year, Poeltl may slip through the cracks a little bit and could be a value if he declares. Poeltl has great size and length combined with good athleticism and mobility for a big man. Poeltl compares favorably to Thunder second year player Steven Adams, both have tremendous defensive potential and like to play physical on both ends. Offensively, Poeltl has nice hands and finish well, but is still learning the skill aspects of the game. Even if he never grow in that area, Poeltl can still be valuable as an Omer Asik-type defensive center.

Upside: 10+ ppg, 10+ rpg, high OREB rate, well above-average defense

17. Bobby Portis, PF Arkansas So. (6-11, 242)

One of the safest picks in the draft, Bobby Portis is likely to be a solid backup power forward who provides a scoring punch off the bench while playing smart defense. Portis is a traditional 4 who can score inside or face-up, occasionally even out to the 3-point line where he has made 9 of 17 shots this season. Portis isn't an impact defensive player or rebounder, but positions himself well and uses his size to his advantage. Because he lacks standout athleticism, he may be better suited to a bench role, like a Carl Landry, but considering how he has steamrolled the competition this season, he may have starter potential yet.

Upside: 13+ ppg, 6+ rpg, above-average efficiency, average defense

18. Montrezl Harrell, PF Louisville Jr. (6-8 240)
Harrell is a difficult projection because he is productive, incredibly athletic, physical, and plays hard non-stop, however he may be only 6-7 and is a power forward through and through. That lack of size most likely caps his upside to more of a role player, he'd be beating significant odds if he became more than that. However, role players are very valuable and Harrell could be a great one. When comparing Harrell to a player like Kenneth Faried, it comes out pretty favorable to Harrell, who isn't the same level of rebounder, but he is stronger, more skilled, and a better defender. However, Faried beat the odds, just as Harrell must as an undersized power forward.
Upside: 10+ ppg, 8+ rpg, above-average defense

19. Justin Anderson, SF Virginia Jr. (6-6, 227)

In his first two seasons at Virginia, Justin Anderson was one of the best defenders in the country and contributed one or more athletic highlights a game. However, he wasn't on NBA radars at all because he provided little offense and shot a putrid .297% from deep (168 attempts). All that has changed as Anderson lit it up from behind the 3-point line to the tune of .500% (92 attempts). Wing players who can defend at a high level and space the floor are in high demand these days and Anderson certainly fits the bill. However, such a transformation must legitimate for Anderson to have significant value; that is the risk.

Upside: 10+ ppg, high 3P%, well above-average defense

20. Jake Layman, SF Maryland Jr. (6-8, 205)
Layman has steadily improved over his first three years to the point now that he has become a pretty potent offensive threat. Layman is an excellent shooter and has the size to shoot over most defenders, he has also improved his ability to create off the dribble and can even score from the mid-post against smaller defenders. He can even make some plays for teammates, though he needs to grow in that area. Defensively, Layman can guard on the wing, but he needs to get stronger to get better on both ends. Considering how much better he has gotten over that last two seasons, Layman is a sleeper to take a big step in the next couple years.
Upside: 15+ ppg, 4+ rpg, high TS%, above-average defense

21. Tyus Jones, PG Duke Fr. (6-1, 190)

Though Okafor has been Duke's best and most heralded player, many times it is Jones that make their team go. Jones is a very high IQ, pure point guard who can run an offense, something it takes many point guards years to come. He is also very quick and difficult to defend on pick-and-rolls because he is equally adept when defenders go over or under screens. If he was a little bigger and more athletic, Jones might be a top 10 pick, but the fact is he isn't and point guards of his size don't have a great track record in the NBA, though my bet would be on him at the very least being a solid backup there.

Upside: 10+ ppg, 7+ apg, good 3P%, good AST/TO ratio, average defense

22. Cliff Alexander, PF Kansas Fr. (6-8, 240)
Alexander is a good reminder that not every top 10 prospect comes in, wins a starting job, then lights up the league. However, that is not an indictment on Alexander, who has been very good in the minutes he has played (his per-minute stats are excellent) but it has taken some of the air out of his draft stock. Unless his minutes go up, I would expect Alexander to return to Kansas next year but even if he does declare he will certainly be a first rounder, maybe even a lottery pick. Alexander is strong, athletic, and physical on both ends of the court. He isn't a refined offensive player by any means but he is effective in his role.
Upside: 10+ ppg, 10+ rpg, above-average defense

23. Robert Upshaw, C ??? (7-0, 250)

Upshaw has now been kicked out of two programs in as many seasons, first Fresno State then Washington. He would be wise to make the jump to the D-League like P.J. Hairston and Glen Rice Jr. before him. It is a shame he can't keep out of trouble because on the court Upshaw is a potentially dominate defensive player. At his size with a 7-5+ wingspan and top athleticism for a big man, Upshaw is an intimidating presence in the lane who blocked an NCAA best 4.5 shots in just 24.9 a game (7.2 per 40 minutes!) Offensively he will dunk everything around the basket, but that is where his contributions stop on that end. If he cleans up his act in the D-League, Upshaw should easily be a first round pick, but another slip-up and he could be done for good.

Upside: 8+ ppg, 10+ rpg, elite defense

24. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF Arizona So. (6-7, 220)

Perhaps the best defensive player in college basketball, Hollis-Jefferson is good enough on that end that even with much offensive growth he could make an NBA roster. He cannot shoot a lick from 3-point range, (6 makes in 60 career games) but scores is a couple sneaky ways and is a good enough ball handler to be viable slashing to the rim. The lack of a jumper will limit his minutes and fit for many teams, but a backup who can be used to slow down some of the premier perimeter scorers in the NBA has value.

Upside: 10+ ppg, 5+ rpg, good FT rates, elite defense

25. Dakari Johnson, C Kentucky So. (7-0, 255)

Another safe bet to be a long time NBA contributor, Johnson might be a star on another team, but for the Wildcats he is just another McDonald's All-American. Johnson is certifiably huge and has long arms that make up for just average athletic ability. Johnson is a throwback center who plays physically in the low post and works hard on the glass. He isn't a top shot blocker but should be effective clogging the lane as he learns better positioning. Johnson projects best coming off the bench and beating up on backup centers.

Upside: 10+ ppg, 8+ rpg, high FG%, average defense

26. Domantas Sabonis, PF Gonzaga (6-10, 231)
Sabonis is the mega-sleeper in this draft, son of the great Arvydas Sabonis, he isn't as skilled on the perimeter as his father, but Sabonis is a very smart, efficient player. Like his dad, Sabonis has great court vision (though not Arvydas' otherworld level) and is more than willing to play physical in the paint, where he finishes at a ridiculously high level (.715 FG%). The issue Sabonis faces now is that he is a sixth man on Gonzaga, which means limited exposure to scouts. If he continues to improve from now until the 2016 draft, Sabonis could be a lottery pick. This year is a little more hit-or-miss, but a team willing to take a chance could be handsomely rewarded.
Upside: 14+ ppg, 8+ rpg, high FG%, average defense

27. Christian Wood, PF UNLV So. (6-11, 220)
Calling Christian Wood the "poor man's" Kevon Looney is an insult to Wood, (he's actually been the better player) but their games are comparable. Like Looney, Wood is a long athlete who is very active on the glass, but needs polish in other aspects of his game. Wood is at his best facing up and attacking, but he will need to improve his jumpshot in order access that aspect of his game at the next level. Defensively, he blocks shots but needs to get a lot stronger. Wood is a wildcard because his offensive abilities are mostly projections based if he get stronger and improves his jumpshot.
Upside: 12+ ppg, 9+ rpg, above-average defense  

28. Sam Dekker, SF Wisconsin Jr. (6-9, 220)
Dekker was a sleeper in the both the 2013 and 2014 drafts, but went back to school both times and is now more of a borderline pick mainly because he hasn't improved much since his Freshman year. In fact, his shooting has taken a step back since he shot .391%, shooting .304% his last two years. Dekker is tough off the dribble and athletic enough to be an above-average defender, but without the jumper he will have a tough time making it at the next level. His stroke is good and he should be better than he is, so there is a decent chance he improves. 
Upside: 12+ ppg, 5+ rpg, above-average defense 

29. Kennedy Meeks, C North Carolina So. (6-9, 280)
Meeks will be one of the more interesting prospects in the draft and will be worth watching as the process plays out. Meeks is huge (occasionally too huge) and versatile scoring the basketball in the post, where his size helps him get position. Meeks has good footwork and hands, and is good enough distributing the ball that a college offense could run through him. Defensively, pick-and-rolls will be a struggle but his size should help clogging the lane and he does a decent job blocking shots. The issues with Meeks are conditioning and defense, both of which can be improved, but it may take some patience from the drafting team, which can turn some off.
Upside: 11+ ppg, 8+ rpg, good assist rate, average defense

30. Caris LeVert, G/F Michigan Jr. (6-7, 200)
LeVert was a likely late lottery pick before his season ended with a fractured foot. When healthy, LeVert is a prototypical wing player who can make 3s at a high rate, defend on the perimeter, and create off the dribble. The foot issue likely will keep him from working out, which is a setback to his potential in the draft, but teams will have to take a long look at LeVert because of his skillset and upside.
Upside: 12+ ppg, 3+ rpg, 3+ apg, high 3P%, above-average defense  

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Preseason Award Predictions

Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat

It is a common opinion that Erik Spoelstra is an average (or worse) coach that the Big 3 made look good. However, in some ways it was the opposite, Spoelstra built an offense around their unique skills: a big who shoots, a guard who doesn't, and the worlds biggest point guard. He also organized a tremendous, swarming defense that was the backbone of 4 straight Finals teams. With LeBron gone and Wade hobbled, this will be the year that both Spoelstra and Chris Bosh get the credit they are due, possibly leading the Heat to 50 wins and a 3-seed. Obviously Gregg Popovich could easily win it again, as could newcomer David Blatt, or any number of coaches that exceed expectations. For example, if Frank Vogel gets the disasterous Pacers back the playoffs, he would have to get a lot of considerations.

Executive of the Year: LeBron James David Griffin, Cleveland Cavaliers

They can't give him the award, can they?

Most Improved Player: Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks

This award usually goes to players in their third or fourth season who have a big jump in minutes, however their aren't a ton of candidates that meet that criteria, so instead the favorites may be players fully integrating into a system or that add something to their game that takes it to the next level. Jeff Teague was great last year in Mike Budenholzer's offense, and should only improve with experience. Also, the return of Al Horford and the arrival of rookie Adeian Payne is sure to raise his assist totals and take the focal point of defenses off of him. Speaking of assists, another possibility to win the award is Timberwolves guard Ricky Rubio, who actually improved as a shooter last year, and surely can't be a dreadful of a finisher as he has in the past. (right?) The super-athletes he will play with this year (Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Thad Young) will lend to an uptempo style and a ton of assists (he should lead the league in this category, or be close) and even if he just shoots 40-42% and finishes better, it will be a huge improvement. Some advanced stats love Rubio (10.76 RPM) while others aren't as high (+2.6 Simple rating, 15.35 PER). Rubio is hurt by the fact that Minnesota likely isn't going to win a ton of games this year and won't get a ton of national attention as a result. While I hate to be a sucker for pre-season storylines, if Michael Kidd-Gilchirst really has developed a decent jumpshot, it could be the piece that brings all the other great things he does together into a premier package.

Sixth Man of the Year: Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls

The usual suspects like Jamal Crawford and Manu Ginobili will be in the running, but this may finally be the year that Taj Gibson, who unlike most Sixth Man winners also adds tremendous value defensively, will finally get some recognition. Pau Gasol may have replaced Carlos Boozer, but I would be surprised if Gibson wasn't still finishing games at power forward like he was last year. A sleeper would be Dion Waiters, if he is used off the bench, because he has talent because LeBron (and winning) tends to bring the most out of players, despite their flaws. If he is fully healthy Ryan Anderson is another under-the-radar option because he is so efficient and should get plenty of playing time. If Utah wasn't going to be terrible, Alec Burks would be another strong candidate.

Rookie of the Year: Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks

Rookie of the Year doesn't usually go to the best rookie, it goes to the one given the best oppurtunity to put up stats. Role is most important in this race. Jabari Parker will be the focal point of Milwaukee's offense right away and has the talent to excell in that position, scoring a lot of points with good percentages and grabbing a lot of rebounds. Nerlens Noel, Andrew Wiggins, Elfrid Payton, Marcus Smart will all get plenty of playing time, and could win the award if they adjust quickly to the NBA game. Dante Exum has a bright future but probably isn't ready to be a star right away while Julius Randle, Nikola Mirotic, and Doug McDermott have the ability to put up big numbers, but likely won't get the playing time. This is a tremendous crop of rookies and all will be worth watching closely this season, even though who just have limited roles right now. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder

This award almost always goes to a big man, though wing defenders like Andre Igoudala and Tony Allen are deserving of recognition, a rim protecting center is usually the favorite. Serge Ibaka transformed himself an average or worse defensive player who blocked a lot of shots to an elite defensive player who still blocks a lot of shots. Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Roy Hibbert, and Dwight Howard also have a chance, as do young players like Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond. Of course, if LeBron James is able to focus more on the defensive end this season, he certainly has the chaps to win the award, but I doubt it ever happens.

Most Valueable Player: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers

Kevin Durant deservedly won the award last season, but I am not sure he'll be able to top that performance, which may be what it takes to beat out LeBron for the award, who will still score 25-30 points a game with awesome percentages as well having his rebounds and assists up playing alongside Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love and in the Eastern Conference. It will also be interesting to see if he takes on a bigger role defensively now that some of the offensive pressure if off his back. LeBron is far from a lock and I could see Blake Griffin, Chris Bosh, Steph Curry, Derrick Rose, or even an epic season from Dirk Nowizki winning the award. Chris Paul will get a lot of love, but he has been the same (albeit awesome) guy the last couple of years and not come close to winning the award.

All-NBA First Team
G: Chris Paul, Clippers
G: Steph Curry, Warriors
F: Kevin Durant, Thunder
F: LeBron James, Cavaliers
C: Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

All-NBA Second Team
G: Tony Parker, Spurs
G: Russell Westbrook, Thunder
F: Blake Griffin, Clippers
F: Serge Ibaka, Thunder
C: Chris Bosh, Heat

All-NBA Third Team
G: John Wall, Wizards
G: James Harden, Rockets
F: LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers
F: Kevin Love, Cavaliers
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago

All-Defensive First Team
G: Mike Conley Jr, Grizzlies
G: Andre Igoudala, Warriors
F: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
F: Serge Ibaka, Thunder
C: Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

All-Defensive Second Team
G: Chris Paul, Clippers
G: Tony Allen, Grizzlies
F; LeBron James, Cavaliers
F: Tim Duncan, Spurs
C: Joakim Noah, Bulls

All-Rookie First Team
G: Elfrid Payton, Magic
G: Marcus Smart, Celtics
F: Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves
F: Jabari Parker, Bucks
C: Nerlens Noel, Sixers

All-Rookie Second Team
G: Dante Exum, Jazz
G: Nik Stauskas, Kings,
F: Doug McDermott, Bulls
F: Julius Randle, Lakers
C: Noah Vonleh, Hornets

What do you think? Who will take away the big awards this season?

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How Good Will Kentucky Be in 2014-15?

After winning the National Championship in 2012 with one of the most dominant teams in NCAA history, the last two Kentucky teams have fallen short of the expectations created by John Calipari's super recruiting classes. In 2013 they were ranked in the top 5 pre-season, yet fizzled out in the NIT first round. Last year, they started at number one amid talk of 40-0 yet struggled throughout the season, needing a late SEC Tournament run to even lock in a NCAA bid. Once in the tournament they finally put it together and fulfilled pre-season predictions by making it to the championship game, though most weren't expecting 9 regular season losses. This year, expectations may be even higher, with pre-season pundits tripling-down on pre-season Kentucky hype and once again ranking the Wildcats at number 1, despite their falls from the top the last two years to the tune of 23 losses. Looking at the roster, it is hard to disagree:

Backcourt

Last season's starting backcourt returns as the Harrison twins, point guard Andrew and shooting guard Aaron, wisely avoided potential NBA draft night embarrassment to return for their Sophomore season. Before they turned things around last season, the twins were the main source of criticism and justifiably so, they failed to deliver on the hype surrounding them (not their fault) while looking immature, more concerned about complaining to the refs than getting back on defense and displaying very poor body language (their fault). Andrew in particular was abysmal, particularly running the offense and the 37% shooting mark certainly fails to inspire. Aaron scored better, but disappeared often and was very inconsistent from game to game. Their improvement is crucial to the success of the Wildcats, all the big man talent in the world is nice, but if the guys with the ball in their hands struggle, it will be hard for them to be effective. However, even if the struggles of Andrew Harrison continue, all hope is not lost because they have an alternative at the point guard position: Freshman Tyler Ulis. Though he stands but 5-9, Ulis is, unlike Harrison, a true point guard who's primary function is to make his teammates better, which Harrison frequently failed to do last season. Though it might take a lot for Calipari to bench Harrison for Ulis, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened by seasons end. Rounding out the backcourt rotation will likely be Freshman shooting guard Devin Booker, who's calling card is his jumpshot, something the big-man heavy Wildcats will definitely be in need of. He is likely to get plenty of minutes on the wing as well, because Kentucky lack any traditional "small forwards." After those four, however, there isn't much, and backcourt depth could be a significant chink in Kentucky's armor if any of those four go down or don't play well.

Frontcourt

Depth may be an issue in the backcourt, but they have no such issues up front. Returning Junior Alex Poythress will be the favorite to start at power forward, with Sophomore Marcus Lee and Freshman 5-Star Trey Lyles battling for backup minutes. Poythress has been up and down his two years at Kentucky, looking like a nigh-unstoppable force sometimes, but all to often completely disappearing. He is as strong and athletic as the come, but unlike Michael Kidd-Gilchrist before him, he doesn't have the consistent motor yet to have anywhere near that type of impact. Lee is a similar top level athlete, but he has limited experience and isn't particularly skilled. Lyles offers something different, he isn't going to blow anyone away with his physical gifts, but at 6-10, 250 he can score the ball inside and out. Perhaps the pressure behind Poythress will ignite a fire that will get some more consistency out of him. However, if Calipari prefers to keep him in the same role as last year, short bursts off the bench, both Lee and Lyles offer differing skill-sets that can be mixed and matched accordingly. At center, things are just as log-jammed with Junior Willie Cauley-Stein returning as a starter, with Sophomore Darkari Johnson and top 5 incoming recruit Karl-Anthony Towns also in the mix. Cauley-Stein is a tremendous athlete who at 7-1 can radically alter an opposing game plan, however like Poythress he is maddeningly inconsistent. If he falters, Calipari can insert Johnson into the starting lineup (which he did at times last year) who is much more offensively skilled, but struggles defensively. Towns is of course who everyone will want to see, he isn't a defensive force, but is one of the most skilled big men to come along in recent years, featuring a post game, 3-point range, and ball-handling ability. The hope is competition will bring the cream to the top amongst the frontcourt players, but it can also breed discontentment and transfers if things go wrong. 

How to Make it Work On the Court

Kentucky's best offense will likely be screen-heavy, with Towns setting the pick and either rolling or popping, if Poythress can regain his spot-up shooting form, he can set up in the corner, with Booker and Aaron Harrison also spreading the floor. Ulis is better suited than Andrew Harrison to run this kind of offense and it shouldn't come as any surprise if he is the starter eventually, or at least on the court in critical offensive situations. The Wildcats can also play uptempo lineups with Cauley-Stein, Lee, and Poythress, or try to dominate inside using a big, twin towers approach with Towns, Johnson, or Lyles pairing up. Defensively, Kentucky needs their Junior forwards to grow as technical players, and not just rely on their athleticism. Too often Cauley-Stein, Poythress, and Lee as well would fail to box out, rotate correctly, of hedge screens. All three have the ability to dominate defensively, but they can't just outjump opponents every time, they have to play smarter and with a greater grasp of fundamentals. Ulis is the best guard Kentucky has at pressuring the ball, but his height will be an issue against bigger guards, which is where the Harrison's will have to step up their effort. Neither Towns nor Lyles or Johnson have a reputation as top defenders, but if they can use their size and long arms to clog the lane and make opponents shoot over them, Kentucky should break even on that end.

The X Factor

This team is undoubtedly the most talented since 2012 with remarkable frontcourt depth, returning Sophomores and Juniors, and a pretty soft SEC to run through. However, talent isn't enough, and though Calipari is an excellent coach, the pieces have to fit and the players need to buy in. That is what made the 2012 national title winning team so special, they didn't just have talent, their two best players were commited to defense and team first, night and night out and the rest of the team fell in line behind them. So while the Wildcats may have the more NBA talent than the 76ers, they either need upperclassmen (who haven't shown much leadership in the past) to become leaders and tone setters, or else they will have to rely on one of the incoming freshman to take that role, certainly not a given.

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10 Things To Watch At The Orlando Summer League

1. Where does Marcus Smart look most comfortable?
The Celtics drafted Marcus Smart into a situation with a well paid veteran point guard (Rajon Rondo) and shooting guard (Avery Bradley), so there is some question as to where he will play. Before coming to Oklahoma State, Smart was a two guard, but in college he played the point. With James Young and Phil Pressey both on the summer league roster, Smart will have an opportunity to play both, so it will be interesting if he looks more comfortable off the ball or if point guard is truly his future position. With Bradley just signed to a big, long term contract, it seems most likely that Rondo will be the one either traded or let walk when his contract expires next summer. Either way, there will be pressure on Smart to be the point guard of the future. Summer league isn't the best place for point guards to shine, but if he can run some semblance of an offense, it will be a good sign.

2. Can James Young translate his talent onto the court?
There is an expression in baseball scouting that a player who has demonstrated a multitude of present or future skills is a "toolbox." In a basketball sense, Young is a toolbox. At various times he looks like he can shoot the ball from the outside, make plays for himself and others off the dribble, finish with authority, and be a lockdown defender. However, all too often those skills are sabotaged by the cerebral aspect of the game, where Young struggles. Whether it be shooting from 3-point range too often, playing out of control, misreading situations, or making mental mistakes defensively like forgetting assignments and rotations. There are some mitigating circumstances, particularly the unique situation at Kentucky with many young alpha dogs playing together for the first time. Also, he is only 18 years old. Young could have a bright future if his on-court IQ catches up to his physical abilities and skills, but if not he may just be another young talent who never reaches their potential.

3. Do Any of Brooklyn's second rounders step up?
The Nets have a roster packed with heavy contract guys, so if they can get their hands on an inexpensive young contributor or two, it will be a major boon to both their roster and their cap situation. In the 2014 draft, the Nets acquired 3 second round picks and with them drafted two shooting guards, Markel Brown and Xavier Thames, as well as power forward Cory Jefferson. If even one of these prospects becomes a contributor, even as the last man on Brooklyn's bench, it will help the Nets bloated roster gain some semblance of stability. All 3 are good, not great shooters, and have both pluses and minus to their games. Brown is undersized and lacks polished offensive skills, though he is a special athlete. Thames on the other hand, isn't overly athletic, and is also undersized, however he is a good ball handler and has a non-zero chance of becoming a point guard with work. Like Brown, Jefferson is very athletic and can shoot, but isn't a finished product offensively. He is good on the glass and can be a very good rim protector, but is also a late bloomer who hasn't sustained a high level of success for long stretches. Summer league is the first steps for these 3 as they try to prove they belong in the NBA.

4. Can Solomon Hill turn into anything?

Last season the Pacers reached for Solomon Hill, a fringe prospect, in the first round of the draft, and he really failed to impress, posting a very uninspiring 7.62 PER in just 28 game and 8.1 minutes for game. For a college senior close to his ceiling and supposedly ready to contribute, Hill didn't look like he could bring much of anything to the table. This year, the Pacers summer league roster consists of mostly castoffs and journeymen, with Hill clearly the only player with much of a chance to make an impact on the Pacers. Because of this, Hill will likely be featured by the Pacers coaching staff and given every chance to showcase his abilities. Can he show the versatility on both ends of the court that led the Pacers to draft him? Or will he look as lost, unathletic, and unskilled as he did at times during his rookie year. 

5. How do Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes handle athletes?

In round one of old vs. new school scouting, we have analytical darlings Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes looking to take the first step towards proving that basketball skill and production is more important that physical tools. Neither Stokes nor Adams is particularly impressive athletically, Stokes tested well but plays below the rim while Adams was a disaster at the NBA combine and never looked like an above-average athlete on the court. Both however, were very productive during their time in college, posting big, efficient, numbers scoring the ball, rebounding (relative to position), and even in the case of Adams, high steal totals, all of which are solid indicators of success at the next level. Neither Adams or Stokes were non-prospects, and I think most would agree that they deserves to be drafted, but Adams in particular was surprising with where he was drafted. Hopefully they have successful careers and strike a blow for skill and production over "athletic upside."

6. Is there anyone who can help the Heat?

In a minute, in a day, the Miami situation could change drasitcally depending on what the Big 3 do. If they do all re-sign, the Heat will be in a tight financially situation, which means any kind of bargain player who can help will be a huge benefit. Last year's second rounder James Ennis is intriguing because he is a tough defender and has shown the ability to shoot from the outside, consistency and improvement there would make him an intriguing James Jones replacement. Another interesting prospect is former Duke guard Andre Dawkins, who shot 42% from 3 last year and has a long-track record as a shooter. Former UCLA standout Tyler Honeycutt has always been a jack of all trades on both ends of the court, a gifted passer and ball handler despite being 6-8. The real question was his shooting, but he made 36% of his 3 last season playing in Israel. Towson forward Jarrelle Benimon isn't super skilled athletically, but he plays very hard and eats up rebounds. It is along shot for any of these players to make the Heat, but there is always a chance, which is why the summer league exists.

7. Do any of the Thunder's young players take a step forward?

The Thunder have a stacked roster yet again, featuring multiple first round picks including Steven Adams, Josh Huestis, Perry Jones, Jeremy Lamb, Mitch McGary and Andre Roberson, as well as second rounders Grant Jerrett and Semaj Christon. All are very talented and could play key roles for the Thunder off the bench. Each however, also have areas in need of improvement. Wing defense specialists Huestis and Roberson meet to develop offense to help them stay on the court. Lamb and Jones have all the talent in the world but need to be more consistent. Is McGary recovered and back to normal after his back injury? Will Steven Adams take a step forward from awkward but effective defensive player to legitimate starting center? Jarrett can shoot but he needs to do more than that to earn playing time. Christon is raw and can play wild, but has Eric Bledsoe-like athleticism and motor for a guard.

8. The Orlando's young trio score consistently?

In the last two drafts, Orlando has used 3 lottery picks on some of the best defensive players in those respective classes. Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, and Elfrid Payton all have the potential to be some of the best defensive players at their respective positions down the road. The question is, do they begin to take steps forward on offense? Payton is probably the best in that respect because of his ability to get to the rim, finish, and draw fouls, but his struggles shooting the ball mean he will be working uphill until he can improve in that area. Oladipo and Gordon score off of their energy, but neither are consistent shooters with go-to offensive moves. Oladipo can really get to the rim, but he plays very out of control and gets his shot blocked a lot. Gordon on the other hand, is an awesome finisher, but he needs to improve his footwork in the post and rework a jumpshot that can look pretty ugly at times. All three have bright futures, but the gap between valuable player and star is getting it done on both ends of the court.

9. How does Nerlens Noel look after 17 months off the court?
February 12, 2013 Nerlens Noel tore his ACL and was out for the rest of the season. Since then he has all but disappeared save for a brief appearance when he was drafted by the Sixers, not appearing in a single game for the Sixers. This summer, however, Noel will make his pro debut. Obviously, there is a good chance that he will be rusty, however that really isn't the biggest issue. What Noel needs to show is that he is healthy and fully recovered, able to move side-to-side and vertically like he did before the injury. Noel's ability to guard on the perimeter, high motor, disruptive hands, and elite rim protection skills have drawn comparisons to Joakim Noah. Noel wasn't to play like Noah, but needs to be able to move fluidly to accomplish that level of defensive impact. For all intents and purposes, Noel is basically the Sixers first round pick this year, with Joel Embiid and Dario Saric unlikely to play in the NBA next season, so there will be some unfair pressure on him to perform at a high level. This summer will be a big step forward to see if Noel, rightly or wrongly, will "disappoint" this season.

10. Do any UDFA's make teams look foolish?
Many, many draft prospects weren't drafted this year, but luckily for them they will get a chance to show what they can do in the Summer League. Some of the most notable are Tarik Black, Jahii Carson, Jabari Brown, Joe Jackson, Scottie Wilbekin, Fuquan Edwin, Aaron Craft, Melvin Ejim. Point guards like Carson, JAckson, Wilbekin, and Craft will look to show balance and control of an offense. Wing players such as Brown and Edwin will try to light up the scoreboard and shut down the man in front of them, while Ejim will look to show he isn't a tweener and Black has to defend without fouling and show a higher skill level than he did at Kansas. Odds are, none of these players will ever have a significant career in the NBA, but every once in a while one slips through the cracks of the draft and there isn't any reason why one of these couldn't end up making it on a big team roster. All have talent, from this point it is hard work and a little luck.

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San Antonio Spurs Draft Review

30. Kyle Anderson, PF UCLA So. (6-9, 230)
Before the draft, it was obvious that Kyle Anderson's unique skillset would require the correct coach and team structure to succeed. Well he couldn't have landed in a better spot. Anderson is a perfect fit in San Antonio and their free wheeling, ball moving system. He is legitimately a point guard in a power forward's body, with advanced ball handling skills and amazing court vision. His shooting has improved too, shooting 48% from 3 last season. He probably isn't that good of a shooter, but sitting 35-40% from 3 isn't out of the question. The questions about Anderson really revolve around his ability to defend, but San Antonio and Gregg Popovich are the best in the business at maximizing strengths and minimizing weaknesses. In all likelihood, Anderson will be the primary backup power forward and learn from Boris Diaw, who will be re-signed as the backup center. Anderson will be one of the most fun rookies to follow this season.

Projected Lineup
PG: Tony Parker/Patty Mills
SG: Danny Green/Manu Ginobili
SF: Kawhi Leonard/Marco Belinelli
PF: Tim Duncan/Kyle Anderson
C: Tiago Splitter

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Oklahoma City Thunder Draft Review

21. Mitch McGary, F/C Michigan So. (6-10, 250)
The Thunder value intangibles like motor and toughness as much as any franchise in the NBA and this draft really showed that. With both of their picks, they targeted un-flashy players who contribute in ways outside of scoring. McGary is actually most similar to current Thunder forward Nick Collison; rebounding on both ends, playing great help defense, passing, finishing around the basket, and hitting mid-range jumpers. McGary probably has more upside than Collison, but if they is all he becomes it would be well worth a late first round pick. The reason McGary fell, probably too far, were concerns about a back injury and a short track record of success. Collison will be a free agent at the end of next season, at which point McGary will take his place. Or, if Kendrick Perkins is amnestied or traded, he could backup Steven Adams at center.

29. Josh Huestis, G/F Stanford Sr. (6-8, 230) 
This pick confused me at first, Josh Huestis was off my radar some, but on further review it makes sense. Huestis is an excellent defender, an elite athlete with long arms and a high basketball IQ which makes his defensive ability play up even more. Down the road he could become one of the best defenders in the league. It is the offense that is the question, the last two seasons he shot .338% from 3, which is better than Jimmy Butler has shot last season. Butler is probably the best comp for Huestis, college Seniors who are great athletes, defense first, can make jumpshots, and contribute offensively due to their smarts and hustle. Maybe Huestis was a reach, but as a replacement to Thabo Sefolosha, which the Thunder need, he makes a lot of sense.

Projected Lineup
PG: Russell Westbrook/Reggie Jackson
SG: Jeremy Lamb/Josh Huestis
SF: Kevin Durant/Andre Roberson/Perry Jones
PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Mitch McGary
C: Kendrick Perkins/Steven Adams

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Los Angeles Clippers Draft Review

28. C.J. Wilcox, SG Washington Sr. (6-5, 201)
The Clippers are in win-now mode for sure, and therefore have been using the last couple drafts as ways to find players who can help them right now in this playoff/championship window. Last year, it was Reggie Bullock, who was buried behind veterans last season, but will be expected to contribute this season. As will C.J. Wilcox, who is a very good shooter and not only has the physical ability to defend but also the commitment and effort on that end, taking pride in his defense. That makes Wilcox and ideal role player who can stretch the floor on offense as well as play committed defense. He isn't likely the type of player that will move the needle much by himself, but a bench of quality role players is something that helps a team win championships.

Projected Lineup
PG: Chris Paul/Jamal Crawford
SG: J.J. Redick/C.J. Wilcox
SF: Jared Dudley/Reggie Bullock
PF: Blake Griffin/Matt Barnes
C: DeAndre Jordan

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