How Good Will Kentucky Be in 2014-15?

After winning the National Championship in 2012 with one of the most dominant teams in NCAA history, the last two Kentucky teams have fallen short of the expectations created by John Calipari's super recruiting classes. In 2013 they were ranked in the top 5 pre-season, yet fizzled out in the NIT first round. Last year, they started at number one amid talk of 40-0 yet struggled throughout the season, needing a late SEC Tournament run to even lock in a NCAA bid. Once in the tournament they finally put it together and fulfilled pre-season predictions by making it to the championship game, though most weren't expecting 9 regular season losses. This year, expectations may be even higher, with pre-season pundits tripling-down on pre-season Kentucky hype and once again ranking the Wildcats at number 1, despite their falls from the top the last two years to the tune of 23 losses. Looking at the roster, it is hard to disagree:

Backcourt

Last season's starting backcourt returns as the Harrison twins, point guard Andrew and shooting guard Aaron, wisely avoided potential NBA draft night embarrassment to return for their Sophomore season. Before they turned things around last season, the twins were the main source of criticism and justifiably so, they failed to deliver on the hype surrounding them (not their fault) while looking immature, more concerned about complaining to the refs than getting back on defense and displaying very poor body language (their fault). Andrew in particular was abysmal, particularly running the offense and the 37% shooting mark certainly fails to inspire. Aaron scored better, but disappeared often and was very inconsistent from game to game. Their improvement is crucial to the success of the Wildcats, all the big man talent in the world is nice, but if the guys with the ball in their hands struggle, it will be hard for them to be effective. However, even if the struggles of Andrew Harrison continue, all hope is not lost because they have an alternative at the point guard position: Freshman Tyler Ulis. Though he stands but 5-9, Ulis is, unlike Harrison, a true point guard who's primary function is to make his teammates better, which Harrison frequently failed to do last season. Though it might take a lot for Calipari to bench Harrison for Ulis, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened by seasons end. Rounding out the backcourt rotation will likely be Freshman shooting guard Devin Booker, who's calling card is his jumpshot, something the big-man heavy Wildcats will definitely be in need of. He is likely to get plenty of minutes on the wing as well, because Kentucky lack any traditional "small forwards." After those four, however, there isn't much, and backcourt depth could be a significant chink in Kentucky's armor if any of those four go down or don't play well.

Frontcourt

Depth may be an issue in the backcourt, but they have no such issues up front. Returning Junior Alex Poythress will be the favorite to start at power forward, with Sophomore Marcus Lee and Freshman 5-Star Trey Lyles battling for backup minutes. Poythress has been up and down his two years at Kentucky, looking like a nigh-unstoppable force sometimes, but all to often completely disappearing. He is as strong and athletic as the come, but unlike Michael Kidd-Gilchrist before him, he doesn't have the consistent motor yet to have anywhere near that type of impact. Lee is a similar top level athlete, but he has limited experience and isn't particularly skilled. Lyles offers something different, he isn't going to blow anyone away with his physical gifts, but at 6-10, 250 he can score the ball inside and out. Perhaps the pressure behind Poythress will ignite a fire that will get some more consistency out of him. However, if Calipari prefers to keep him in the same role as last year, short bursts off the bench, both Lee and Lyles offer differing skill-sets that can be mixed and matched accordingly. At center, things are just as log-jammed with Junior Willie Cauley-Stein returning as a starter, with Sophomore Darkari Johnson and top 5 incoming recruit Karl-Anthony Towns also in the mix. Cauley-Stein is a tremendous athlete who at 7-1 can radically alter an opposing game plan, however like Poythress he is maddeningly inconsistent. If he falters, Calipari can insert Johnson into the starting lineup (which he did at times last year) who is much more offensively skilled, but struggles defensively. Towns is of course who everyone will want to see, he isn't a defensive force, but is one of the most skilled big men to come along in recent years, featuring a post game, 3-point range, and ball-handling ability. The hope is competition will bring the cream to the top amongst the frontcourt players, but it can also breed discontentment and transfers if things go wrong. 

How to Make it Work On the Court

Kentucky's best offense will likely be screen-heavy, with Towns setting the pick and either rolling or popping, if Poythress can regain his spot-up shooting form, he can set up in the corner, with Booker and Aaron Harrison also spreading the floor. Ulis is better suited than Andrew Harrison to run this kind of offense and it shouldn't come as any surprise if he is the starter eventually, or at least on the court in critical offensive situations. The Wildcats can also play uptempo lineups with Cauley-Stein, Lee, and Poythress, or try to dominate inside using a big, twin towers approach with Towns, Johnson, or Lyles pairing up. Defensively, Kentucky needs their Junior forwards to grow as technical players, and not just rely on their athleticism. Too often Cauley-Stein, Poythress, and Lee as well would fail to box out, rotate correctly, of hedge screens. All three have the ability to dominate defensively, but they can't just outjump opponents every time, they have to play smarter and with a greater grasp of fundamentals. Ulis is the best guard Kentucky has at pressuring the ball, but his height will be an issue against bigger guards, which is where the Harrison's will have to step up their effort. Neither Towns nor Lyles or Johnson have a reputation as top defenders, but if they can use their size and long arms to clog the lane and make opponents shoot over them, Kentucky should break even on that end.

The X Factor

This team is undoubtedly the most talented since 2012 with remarkable frontcourt depth, returning Sophomores and Juniors, and a pretty soft SEC to run through. However, talent isn't enough, and though Calipari is an excellent coach, the pieces have to fit and the players need to buy in. That is what made the 2012 national title winning team so special, they didn't just have talent, their two best players were commited to defense and team first, night and night out and the rest of the team fell in line behind them. So while the Wildcats may have the more NBA talent than the 76ers, they either need upperclassmen (who haven't shown much leadership in the past) to become leaders and tone setters, or else they will have to rely on one of the incoming freshman to take that role, certainly not a given.

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Scouting the Champions Classic: Kentucky Wildcats

Julius Randle, PF (6-9, 250)

Coming into the season, there were many who considered Julius Randle to be a better prospect than Andrew Wiggins, and while I wouldn't say that necessarily (elite, different, not better), Randle is clearly one of the top three prospects in this draft and definitely in consideration for the number 1 overall pick. Randle, who was dominant in his first two games against weak competition, struggled mightily in the first half against Michigan State scoring only 4 points, (1-5 FG, 2-2 FT), 4 rebounds, and 4 turnovers. The second half was another story however, Randle was dominant and brought Kentucky back into the game almost single-handedly. He scored 23 points (8-9 FG, 7-13 FT) after the break, as well as grabbing 9 boards but also committing 4 more turnovers. Randle likes to face up, and is good at it, but he is basically unstoppable in the post at this level, which is where he needs to spend all of his time. He is an elite rebounder as well, particularly offensively, and projects as a 20-10 player in the NBA and certainly a top 3 pick. Randle does need to cut the turnovers, (4 per game is too much) and knock down free throws more consistently, but he is already one of the best players in the country.

James Young, G/F (6-6, 215)

After the whole class had committed, James Young was often the overlooked elite recruit on Kentucky's roster, but his stock got a big boost over the summer, with many thinking he was the best prospect on the team behind Randle. Young had an up and down game against Michigan State, like Randle, he dominated one half (15 points on 5-7 FG, 3-5 from 3, 2-3 FT in the first), and struggled in the second (4 points, 2-9 FG, 0-6 from three, 0-2 FT). He really carried Kentucky that one half, scoring almost half of their points, and kept the score from getting out of hand. That was impressive, the second half was not however, but considering Youmg was the only Kentucky guard to show up at all, all the pressure was on him to stretch the floor and create from the perimeter. Obviously, it would have been nice for him to step up to the challenge for the whole game, but it is easy to forget that this is an 18 year-old playing in his third career game. Young isn't an elite prospect, but he has a chance to be a very good one, and a top 10-15 pick.

Andrew Harrison, PG (6-6, 215)

In his first chance to impress on a big stage, Andrew Harrison disappointed big time. The raw numbers don't look terrible (11 points, 3-6 FG, 4-4 FT, 1-1 from deep, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 4 turnovers) but he was unimpressive, struggling to initiate any kind of offense for Kentucky, and was a non-factor for most of the game, despite play all but 2 minutes in the game. Harrison has size and skill, but couldn't get anything going either for himself or his teammates. The good news is he could still get into the paint, but he didn't have a plan when he got there, but that will come, and his shooting stroke looked good as well, another good sign. Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Brandon Knight, and Marquis Teague all struggled early on too, though it is troubling how few flashes Harrison showed. Even more troubling was bad body language, clear lack of effort on some plays, and the fact that Keith Appling had a huge game while being primarily defended by Harrison. With Dante Exum and Marcus Smart firmly entrenched ahead of him, Harrison will have a lot of work to do to get back into the top 10, but the ability is there.

Aaron Harrison, SG (6-6, 218)

If Andrew Harrison had a bad game, his twin Aaron's game was a downright disaster. He only played 18 minutes, went 1-7 from the floor and missed all 5 of his threes and struggled defensively. He has great size for a wing, but doesn't appear to be very explosive, and if the jumper isn't falling, Harrison is rendered fairly ineffective. His brother is a high level NBA prospect because he can play point guard, but as a shooting guard who's best weapon is his jumper, but isn't an elite shooter, Aaron just doesn't project as special as an NBA wing. At his size, Harrison should be a good defender, but Gary Harris had his way with him. If he can become a better driver and shooter, Harrison might become a first round pick after another season or so, but right now I don't see it.

Alex Poythress, F (6-8, 239)

Alex Poythress had unreasonable expectations last season, to which he didn't live up. This was exacerbated by the fact that everyone else on the team struggled too, forcing a larger offensive role upon Poythress than he was ready for. So far this season, and in this game, Poythress has played within himself and played very hard. He didn't do much offensively, (7 points, 2-6 FG, 3-4 FT) which is an issue, but Poythress showed he has several skills that could make him an effective NBA role player, with the upside for more down the line. Poythress is physically very impressive, taller than his listed height, more like 6-9, with long arms 7-0+ wingspan, an NBA body, and elite athleticism. With those physical gifts, he should be, and is, an excellent rebounder, especially this season where he is averaging 10.7 boards in only 22.7 minutes a game. These tools also make him a very good defender with the chance to be elite. Poythress has also shown an ability to make corner 3s, which could allow him to space the floor as power forward on offense in the NBA. That, plus the defense and rebounding, would make Poythress a valuable player at the next level, and worthy of a first round pick.

Willie Cauley-Stein, C (7-0, 244)

Despite how impressive Willie Cauley-Stein looks, I always come away unimpressed when watching him against non-cupcake opponents, with the game against Michigan State being no exception. Cauley-Stein is tall, long and athletic, he looks like a young Tyson Chandler, and there is undeniable upside, if teams are willing to be very patient. Offensively, he is limited to lobs and put backs, which is expected, but it the lack of fundamentals and basketball IQ that is the big problem, he can be an excellent shotblocker, but is out of position a lot, and he relies on too much on athleticism to grab rebounds instead of boxing out. These are things that the team that drafts him will have to work on, but an overall feel for the game can only come through playing in games.

Dakari Johnson, C (7-0, 265) and Marcus Lee, PF (6-9, 215) 
Because he is the backup to Cauley-Stein, Dakari Johnson hasn't got a ton of minutes (13.3 a game), and is therefore more of a prospect for future drafts beyond 2014. The same can be said for Marcus Lee, who has the unenviable task of playing behind Randle. Johnson has terrific size and strength, but isn't an elite athlete. He makes his living in the paint and is very good scoring around the basket, with a pretty nice skill level and a high IQ, he is also a very good rebounder. Johnson reminds me of a bigger, rawer Jared Sullinger. I would like to see Kentucky, when Randle is resting, play Johnson with Poythress, Young, and the Harrison's spreading the floor to give him some space on the block. If he comes back next year and plays starters minutes, Johnson could be a top 10 pick in 2015. Lee is different from Johnson, he doesn't have quite the skills or developed body, but but he is long and very athletic, the kind of physical profile that, with some work in the weight room and on the court, gets NBA teams really excited.