Preseason Award Predictions

Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat

It is a common opinion that Erik Spoelstra is an average (or worse) coach that the Big 3 made look good. However, in some ways it was the opposite, Spoelstra built an offense around their unique skills: a big who shoots, a guard who doesn't, and the worlds biggest point guard. He also organized a tremendous, swarming defense that was the backbone of 4 straight Finals teams. With LeBron gone and Wade hobbled, this will be the year that both Spoelstra and Chris Bosh get the credit they are due, possibly leading the Heat to 50 wins and a 3-seed. Obviously Gregg Popovich could easily win it again, as could newcomer David Blatt, or any number of coaches that exceed expectations. For example, if Frank Vogel gets the disasterous Pacers back the playoffs, he would have to get a lot of considerations.

Executive of the Year: LeBron James David Griffin, Cleveland Cavaliers

They can't give him the award, can they?

Most Improved Player: Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks

This award usually goes to players in their third or fourth season who have a big jump in minutes, however their aren't a ton of candidates that meet that criteria, so instead the favorites may be players fully integrating into a system or that add something to their game that takes it to the next level. Jeff Teague was great last year in Mike Budenholzer's offense, and should only improve with experience. Also, the return of Al Horford and the arrival of rookie Adeian Payne is sure to raise his assist totals and take the focal point of defenses off of him. Speaking of assists, another possibility to win the award is Timberwolves guard Ricky Rubio, who actually improved as a shooter last year, and surely can't be a dreadful of a finisher as he has in the past. (right?) The super-athletes he will play with this year (Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Thad Young) will lend to an uptempo style and a ton of assists (he should lead the league in this category, or be close) and even if he just shoots 40-42% and finishes better, it will be a huge improvement. Some advanced stats love Rubio (10.76 RPM) while others aren't as high (+2.6 Simple rating, 15.35 PER). Rubio is hurt by the fact that Minnesota likely isn't going to win a ton of games this year and won't get a ton of national attention as a result. While I hate to be a sucker for pre-season storylines, if Michael Kidd-Gilchirst really has developed a decent jumpshot, it could be the piece that brings all the other great things he does together into a premier package.

Sixth Man of the Year: Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls

The usual suspects like Jamal Crawford and Manu Ginobili will be in the running, but this may finally be the year that Taj Gibson, who unlike most Sixth Man winners also adds tremendous value defensively, will finally get some recognition. Pau Gasol may have replaced Carlos Boozer, but I would be surprised if Gibson wasn't still finishing games at power forward like he was last year. A sleeper would be Dion Waiters, if he is used off the bench, because he has talent because LeBron (and winning) tends to bring the most out of players, despite their flaws. If he is fully healthy Ryan Anderson is another under-the-radar option because he is so efficient and should get plenty of playing time. If Utah wasn't going to be terrible, Alec Burks would be another strong candidate.

Rookie of the Year: Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks

Rookie of the Year doesn't usually go to the best rookie, it goes to the one given the best oppurtunity to put up stats. Role is most important in this race. Jabari Parker will be the focal point of Milwaukee's offense right away and has the talent to excell in that position, scoring a lot of points with good percentages and grabbing a lot of rebounds. Nerlens Noel, Andrew Wiggins, Elfrid Payton, Marcus Smart will all get plenty of playing time, and could win the award if they adjust quickly to the NBA game. Dante Exum has a bright future but probably isn't ready to be a star right away while Julius Randle, Nikola Mirotic, and Doug McDermott have the ability to put up big numbers, but likely won't get the playing time. This is a tremendous crop of rookies and all will be worth watching closely this season, even though who just have limited roles right now. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder

This award almost always goes to a big man, though wing defenders like Andre Igoudala and Tony Allen are deserving of recognition, a rim protecting center is usually the favorite. Serge Ibaka transformed himself an average or worse defensive player who blocked a lot of shots to an elite defensive player who still blocks a lot of shots. Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Roy Hibbert, and Dwight Howard also have a chance, as do young players like Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond. Of course, if LeBron James is able to focus more on the defensive end this season, he certainly has the chaps to win the award, but I doubt it ever happens.

Most Valueable Player: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers

Kevin Durant deservedly won the award last season, but I am not sure he'll be able to top that performance, which may be what it takes to beat out LeBron for the award, who will still score 25-30 points a game with awesome percentages as well having his rebounds and assists up playing alongside Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love and in the Eastern Conference. It will also be interesting to see if he takes on a bigger role defensively now that some of the offensive pressure if off his back. LeBron is far from a lock and I could see Blake Griffin, Chris Bosh, Steph Curry, Derrick Rose, or even an epic season from Dirk Nowizki winning the award. Chris Paul will get a lot of love, but he has been the same (albeit awesome) guy the last couple of years and not come close to winning the award.

All-NBA First Team
G: Chris Paul, Clippers
G: Steph Curry, Warriors
F: Kevin Durant, Thunder
F: LeBron James, Cavaliers
C: Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

All-NBA Second Team
G: Tony Parker, Spurs
G: Russell Westbrook, Thunder
F: Blake Griffin, Clippers
F: Serge Ibaka, Thunder
C: Chris Bosh, Heat

All-NBA Third Team
G: John Wall, Wizards
G: James Harden, Rockets
F: LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers
F: Kevin Love, Cavaliers
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago

All-Defensive First Team
G: Mike Conley Jr, Grizzlies
G: Andre Igoudala, Warriors
F: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
F: Serge Ibaka, Thunder
C: Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

All-Defensive Second Team
G: Chris Paul, Clippers
G: Tony Allen, Grizzlies
F; LeBron James, Cavaliers
F: Tim Duncan, Spurs
C: Joakim Noah, Bulls

All-Rookie First Team
G: Elfrid Payton, Magic
G: Marcus Smart, Celtics
F: Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves
F: Jabari Parker, Bucks
C: Nerlens Noel, Sixers

All-Rookie Second Team
G: Dante Exum, Jazz
G: Nik Stauskas, Kings,
F: Doug McDermott, Bulls
F: Julius Randle, Lakers
C: Noah Vonleh, Hornets

What do you think? Who will take away the big awards this season?

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NBA Award Predictions + All-NBA, Defense, Rookie Team

Coach of the Year: Mark Jackson, Golden State Warriors
This award generally goes to the coach of a team that has a big jump in wins, or battles injuries, both of which are a possibility for the Warriors this season. Andrew Bogut and Steph Curry could miss games, yet the addition of Andre Igoudala and some steps forward by Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes could lead to 50-plus wins (they won 47 last season). Mark Jackson did what seemed impossible a couple of years ago and turned Golden State into an above average defensive and rebounding team, and they could be even better this year. Kevin McHale, Rick Carlisle, and Frank Vogel are other possibilities, though this award is hard to predict. 

Most Improved Player: Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls

The last five players to win this award all won it in their third or fourth season, and all but Danny Granger had a big jump in minutes as well. Using that criteria, there are several candidates such as a pair of Jazz players in Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors, as well as Suns guard Eric Bledsoe. Kanter has a chance to step into Al Jefferson's role and put up big numbers, while Favors could lead the league in rebounding, and Bledsoe is a stat-sheet stuffer and highlight factory. Still, I think Butler is the choice. Not only will he get a boast in minutes, up from 26 into the 30s, but he should provide an overall game of offense and defense. Perhaps most importantly he will be a key player on a very good team with national exposure.

Sixth Man of the Year: Andrei Kirilenko, Brooklyn Nets

This award frequently goes to high scoring guards, but I think Andrei Kirilenko will break that trend this season because of just how crucial he will be to Brooklyn during the regular season. As the Nets try to spare Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett for the playoffs, Kirilenko will play a ton of minutes at both spots and fill up the box score while also being the teams wing stopper. Reggie Jackson, Jamal Crawford, Lance Stephenson, Harrison Barnes, and Manu Ginobili will be the primary scorers off the bench for good teams and in the running for this award.

Rookie of the Year: Victor Oladipo, Orlando Magic

This is a wide open race for Rookie of the Year as there are no sure-fire performers in big roles this season. Victor Oladipo is the favorite because of his ability to make so many impact plays and put up points, rebounds, assists, steals, and even blocks. He is far from a lock though because he isn't a starter and any number of other rookies could be in the running for this award, it is just a matter of who is able to take ahold of a role and run with it.

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets

The winner of this award is almost always a big man and a key part of a top defense, which is why despite his potential merit I am not sure Dwight Howard will win this award, the Rockets defense just won't be good enough for voters to consider him. That said, when healthy he is the best defensive player in the league and should win this award every year. The usual suspects of Marc Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Tony Allen, LeBron James, Joakim Noah, and Roy Hibbert are also potential condidares for the award.

Most Valuable Player: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder

LeBron will likely be most deserving of this, but voter fatigue is a real thing and Durant is getting better every season. He has become a much improved playmaker, and should have a boost in scoring average as well with Russell Westbrook out to start the season. Derrick Rose is another possibility, as is James Harden and Chris Paul, but most likely this will come down to Durant vs. LeBron.

First Team All-NBA

G: Chris Paul, Clippers

G: James Harden, Rockets

F: LeBron James, Heat

F: Kevin Durant, Thunder

C: Dwight Howard, Rockets

Second Team All-NBA

G: Derrick Rose, Bulls

G: Tony Parker, Spurs

F: Carmelo Anthony, Knicks

F: Kevin Love, Timberwolves

C: Marc Gasol, Grizzlies 

Third Team All-NBA

G: Kyrie Irving, Cavaliers

G: Dwyane Wade, Heat

F: Paul George, Pacers

F: Anthony Davis, Pelicans

C: Al Horford, Hawks

First Team All-Rookie
G: Victor Oladipo, Magic
G: Ben McLemore, Kings
G: Michael Carter-Williams, Sixers
F: Anthony Bennett, Cleveland
C: Cody Zeller, Bobcats

Second Team All-Rookie
G: Dennis Schroder, Atlanta
G: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Pistons
F: Otto Porter, Wizards
F: Kelly Olynyk, Celtics
C: Steven Adams, Thunder

First Team All-Defense
G: Mike Conely Jr, Grizzlies
G: Tony Allen, Grizzlies
F: LeBron James, Heat
F: Tim Duncan, Spurs
C: Dwight Howard, Rockets

Second Team All-Defense
G: Chris Paul, Clippers
G: Eric Bledsoe, Suns
F: Paul George, Pacers
F: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
C: Joakim Noah, Bulls