Okafor has certainly lived up to his top billing so far this season. The kind of natural footwork and soft hands he consistently shows are rare even among NBA players, let alone a College big of Okafor's size and age. He looks easily like a 20-10 player at the next level and is the favorite because this level of production, skill set, and high floor is both safe and valueable. However, Okafor the race for the top prospect in closer than some might suspect. Okafor doesn't fit as well with uptempo offenses and the team that takes him must be willing to run a slower, post up offense. Also, despite his size, Okafor is more of a finesse offensive player, and right now his defense is frankly poor. But again, this level of ability is not something to be ignored.
2. D'Angelo Russell, SG Ohio State Fr. (6-5, 180)
Russell is another rare package of abilities, an top shelf shooter with excellent court vision and passing ability who can both score and set up teammates, but with the size to defend wings. Some teams might want to convert him to point guard, but I think he value is much higher as a scorer who can serve as a secondary ball handler alongside a truer point guard, much as he has at Ohio State with Shannon Scott. Russell plays similar to James Harden, but isn't nearly as strong or physical of a player, which is his main concern, he needs to get strong and finish inside more efficiently. Russell could be the top pick in the draft, especially if a team like Philadelphia or Orlando land the number one pick.
Upside: 20+ ppg, 5 rpg, 6+ apg, 45 FG%, 40% 3P%, average defense
3. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG Guandong (6-5, 200)
Mudiay has had one of the weird paths to the draft so far, decommitting from SMU to play professionally in China, where he started the season with crazy production before getting injured and sitting out since December. Whether he plays again is sort of a moot point, Mudiay will likely work out for select teams before the draft and be a top 5 pick. Mudiay's size and athleticism as a point guard compare favorable to the likes of John Wall, though Wall is a much more natural point guard, while Mudiay is more of an offensive player. Like most young point guards, Mudiay is rough around the edges, though he has the advantage of being big enough to play off guard if things don't work out, though his physical attributes aren't as special there.
Upside: 17 ppg, 5+ rpg, 5+ apg, high FT rate, above average defense
4. Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C Kentucky (6-11, 250)
Towns came into Kentucky with his offense ahead of his defense in the eyes of scouts, however at Kentucky it appears the opposite is true. Mostly, this is due to circumstance, Towns certainly has plenty of offensive skills, he can shoot, handle the ball, see the floor, and score inside, yet because of Kentucky's platoon system, depth, and ball dominant guards, Towns hasn't had the usage to show all his skills or put of superficial stats. It is his defense that has been a revelation this year, he is using his size, length, and IQ to find excellent positioning, block shots and rebound at high rate. Workout will be key for Towns, if he can show his full skillset, he could also also challenge for the top pick.
Upside: 16+ ppg, 9+ rpg, 50+ FG%, 35+ 3P%, above-average passing and defense
5. Stanley Johnson, SF Arizona Fr. (6-7, 245)
In High School, Johnson had similar strengths and weaknesses to former Wildcat Aaron Gordon: top defensive potential and versatility, high motor and competitiveness, but with questionable perimeter skills. So far however into his Freshman season, Johnson hasn't had those issues, shooting 39% from 3 while also still rebounding and playing defense at a high level. Despite being just 18 years old, Johnson is already more physically developed than many NBA players and should be able to guard positions 1 through 4 while scoring off of energy plays, slashing to the basket, and in catch-and-shoot situations. Johnson is not far off of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as an impact defender and competitor and he is already a better shooter.
Upside: 15+ ppg, 7+ rpg, well above-average defense
6. Kristaps Porzingis, PF Seville (7-0, 220)
Porzingis turned down a first round promise last year -probably from a team picking in the late teens- and the move is looking like it will pay off big time. In a draft full of big men, Porzingis may have the highest ceiling of the bunch, though perhaps with more risk than others. Bouncy and lean, Porzingis has perimeter skills -including three point range and good ball skills- as well as a soft touch, great hands and good footwork. Defensively, he can block shots but isn't at this point a plus rebounder. The risk comes from the fact that Porzingis needs to get a lot stronger to take full advantage of his offensive and defensive abilities, though at 19 it is likely he will improve his body considerably.
Upside: 16+ ppg, 7+ rebounds, 37+% from 3, above-average defense
7. Willie Cauley-Stein, C Kentucky Jr. (7-0, 240)
After two years of tantalizing with his talent, yet failing to execute basic fundamentals, Willie Cauley-Stein has started to put it all together. I say start because really, despite being one of the best players in college basketball this year, Cauley-Stein has the potential to be so much better. When it comes to the holy physical trinity (size, length, athleticism) Cauley-Stein is in the upper reaches of NBA prospects. Even if he doesn't improve anymore, he could basically be a Tyson Chandler type defender, yet who blocks more shots. Offensively he is very effective in pick-and-roll, but is slowly growing as a post player. Compared to former Wildcats centers prospects, he isn't as instinctive of a defensive player as Anthony Davis or Nerlens Noel, but is already much bigger than either of those. Cauley-Stein is stil, rough around the edges, but there is little doubt now that he will be an impact NBA player.
Upside: 10+ ppg, 10+ rpg, high FG%, elite defense
8. Myles Turner, C Texas Fr. (6-11, 240)
Turner is a polarizing prospects because he has such standout traits for both the positive and negative. On one hand, he is already an impressive shooter all the way to the three-point line, yet there are concerns he is too finesse of a player. Turner runs the floor very well, but looks awkward doing it. He blocks shots and protects the rim, but doesn't move great laterally. When Turner goes to the foul line, he is money, but he doesn't draw fouls at the kind of rate a like an athletic, 6-11 big man should. I don't buy that Turner lacks a "killer instinct" -that label has proved false too many time- but at this point he isn't as assertive as you might like to see. However, at 18 years old all that may come. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder when it comes to Turner, but it is hard to look past a big man that can both shoot and protect the rim.
Upside: 15+ ppg, 9+ rpg, above-average defense
9. Kelly Oubre, SF Kansas Fr. (6-7, 200)
After barely playing in the Jayhawks first couple of games, Oubre removed himself from Bill Self's doghouse to become full time starter for Kansas. However, despite getting plenty of minutes, Oubre has been maddeningly inconsistent so far. Some games he is all over the floor, attacking the basket and battling for rebounds, while other times barely looks engaged, content to stand at the three point line. Part of the reason for this is that he is a 19 year-old Freshman halfway through his first college season, but is is still a real concern for many teams. Oubre is such a smooth athlete and an excellent slasher yet can also play physically when it suits him, and though he jumper looks weird, it goes in plenty. I dislike the idea that a player can be "as good as he wants to be," -this is an oversimplification- Oubre has All-Star ability and can reach those with a little more consistency, similarly to the likes of Andrew Wiggins and Paul George before him.
Upside: 17+ ppg, 6+ rpg, 36% from 3, good FT rates, above-average defense
10. Mario Hezonja, SF Barcelona (6-8, 200)
After tantalizing scouts from ever so brief and inconsistent minutes off the Barcalona bench, Hezonja has finally secured a stable role on the team and hasn't disappointed. He is still young and inexperienced, but Hezonja can basically do everything you want of a wing player. Hezonja is sort of the opposite of the false European stereotype: very athletic but sometime struggling to fit into a team game. Indeed, aside from inexperience, the biggest question mark facing Hezonja is ability to play well with others and a history of some poor body language. However, he is young and the prototype of what an NBA wing should be.
Upside: 16+ ppg, 5+ rpg, 3 apg, good FT rates, 37% from three, average defense
11. Devin Booker, SG Kentucky Fr. (6-6, 206)
Booker isn't the flashiest Kentucky prospect, but none have been better than he has so far this season. First and foremost, Booker is a lights-out shooter, nailing a robust .506% of his three-point shots (ninth best in the country) on almost 4 attempts a game. Considering he is primarily a shooter, his .524 two-point percentage is also impressive. Booker's ability to make shots in all types of situations isn't in question, however his defense is. Booker tested well athletically at UK's pro day, but there will always be lingering doubts because he doesn't look overwhelmingly physical on the court. Booker is statistically a better shooter than Klay Thompson was at Washington State, while having similar builds (Thompson is a little bigger and longer) and Booker has tested better athletically. Not saying Booker will be as good as Thompson, but both came out of college with similar strengths and weaknesses.
Upside: 14+ ppg, high 3P%, average defense
12. Justise Winslow, SF Duke Fr. (6-6, 225)
Winslow started out this season on a tear, particularly from 3-point range, then cooled off dramatically before reaching a low point, scoring 0 points and only playing 10 minutes versus St. John's. Since then his play and shooting has improved, but he is still a considerably streaky 3-point shooter. Winslow is a top level athlete who is tremendous in transition and has excellent defensive potential. Unlike many young wing prospects, he also sees the floor well and is a willing playmaker. Winslow's draft stock will rise and fall with the jumpshot because he's got a lot going for him but the jumper is the lynch-pin to holding together the top ten package. If he can gain more consistency in that area, there is nothing preventing a rise to the top 10 or higher.
Upside: 15+ ppg, 6+ rpg, high assist rate, well above-average defense
13. Kevon Looney, PF UCLA Fr. (6-9, 220)
Looney has some obvious present skills but mostly his value is based on projection. Right now, Looney is an athletic forward who does his best work on the offensive glass, where he grabs 4 a game. Offensively, Looney will show a a variety of skills at times, the ability to hit jumpers and handle the ball, though he lacks consistency in these areas. He moves well defensively and has the potential to be a better shot blocker than he is right now. Aside from the rebounding, all of these abilities can come and go for Looney, but there is optimism that he can become more consistent because he is such a intelligent player who is just starting to become the player he will be.
Upside: 14+ ppg, 10+ rpg, high OREB rate, above-average defense
14. Frank Kaminsky, PF Wisconsin Sr. (7-0, 234)
After barely playing his first two seasons at Wisconsin, Kaminsky broke out in a big way his Junior year, and has only improved as a Senior, to that point he is now a legitimate POY candidate. Kaminsky is a well-rounded offensive player with a nice post game and legitimate 3-point range on his jumpshot. Kaminsky is super efficient and smart, he basically takes the two best shots in basketball, a 3 or a shot at the rim, which he converts at .411% and .571% rates. Defensively he can block shots and moves his feet well, but isn't a intimidating interior defender. Obviously, for a soon to be 22 year old, Kaminsky's upside may be capped, but he doesn't have to improve much to a very valuable NBA contributor.
Upside: 14+ ppg, 8+ rpg, high TS%, average defense
15. Jerian Grant, PG Notre Dame Sr. (6-5, 202)
Grant was in the midst of an All-American season last year when he was ruled academically ineligible and had to sit out the rest of the season. He is back this year and better than before, a potential Player of the Year candidate. Grant has tremendous size for a point guard and the abilities to play there. He sees the floor well, can play the role of distributor or scorer and is efficient from all of areas of the floor. Due to his size, Grant can defend either guard spot and is a good enough shooter to play as a traditional shooting guard. In addition to that versatility, Grant, who is related to NBA players Harvey (father), Horace (uncle), and Jerami (brother), has elite bloodlines and a top flight athletic profile.
Upside: 16+ ppg, 5+ rpg, 6+ apg, above-average defense
16. Jakob Poeltl, C Utah Fr. (7-0, 235)
In other drafts, a big man with Poeltl's defensive ability would be a hot commodity, however with all the talented centers in college basketball this year, Poeltl may slip through the cracks a little bit and could be a value if he declares. Poeltl has great size and length combined with good athleticism and mobility for a big man. Poeltl compares favorably to Thunder second year player Steven Adams, both have tremendous defensive potential and like to play physical on both ends. Offensively, Poeltl has nice hands and finish well, but is still learning the skill aspects of the game. Even if he never grow in that area, Poeltl can still be valuable as an Omer Asik-type defensive center.
Upside: 10+ ppg, 10+ rpg, high OREB rate, well above-average defense
17. Bobby Portis, PF Arkansas So. (6-11, 242)
One of the safest picks in the draft, Bobby Portis is likely to be a solid backup power forward who provides a scoring punch off the bench while playing smart defense. Portis is a traditional 4 who can score inside or face-up, occasionally even out to the 3-point line where he has made 9 of 17 shots this season. Portis isn't an impact defensive player or rebounder, but positions himself well and uses his size to his advantage. Because he lacks standout athleticism, he may be better suited to a bench role, like a Carl Landry, but considering how he has steamrolled the competition this season, he may have starter potential yet.
Upside: 13+ ppg, 6+ rpg, above-average efficiency, average defense
18. Montrezl Harrell, PF Louisville Jr. (6-8 240)
Harrell is a difficult projection because he is productive, incredibly athletic, physical, and plays hard non-stop, however he may be only 6-7 and is a power forward through and through. That lack of size most likely caps his upside to more of a role player, he'd be beating significant odds if he became more than that. However, role players are very valuable and Harrell could be a great one. When comparing Harrell to a player like Kenneth Faried, it comes out pretty favorable to Harrell, who isn't the same level of rebounder, but he is stronger, more skilled, and a better defender. However, Faried beat the odds, just as Harrell must as an undersized power forward.
Upside: 10+ ppg, 8+ rpg, above-average defense
19. Justin Anderson, SF Virginia Jr. (6-6, 227)
In his first two seasons at Virginia, Justin Anderson was one of the best defenders in the country and contributed one or more athletic highlights a game. However, he wasn't on NBA radars at all because he provided little offense and shot a putrid .297% from deep (168 attempts). All that has changed as Anderson lit it up from behind the 3-point line to the tune of .500% (92 attempts). Wing players who can defend at a high level and space the floor are in high demand these days and Anderson certainly fits the bill. However, such a transformation must legitimate for Anderson to have significant value; that is the risk.
Upside: 10+ ppg, high 3P%, well above-average defense
20. Jake Layman, SF Maryland Jr. (6-8, 205)
Layman has steadily improved over his first three years to the point now that he has become a pretty potent offensive threat. Layman is an excellent shooter and has the size to shoot over most defenders, he has also improved his ability to create off the dribble and can even score from the mid-post against smaller defenders. He can even make some plays for teammates, though he needs to grow in that area. Defensively, Layman can guard on the wing, but he needs to get stronger to get better on both ends. Considering how much better he has gotten over that last two seasons, Layman is a sleeper to take a big step in the next couple years.
Upside: 15+ ppg, 4+ rpg, high TS%, above-average defense
21. Tyus Jones, PG Duke Fr. (6-1, 190)
Though Okafor has been Duke's best and most heralded player, many times it is Jones that make their team go. Jones is a very high IQ, pure point guard who can run an offense, something it takes many point guards years to come. He is also very quick and difficult to defend on pick-and-rolls because he is equally adept when defenders go over or under screens. If he was a little bigger and more athletic, Jones might be a top 10 pick, but the fact is he isn't and point guards of his size don't have a great track record in the NBA, though my bet would be on him at the very least being a solid backup there.
Upside: 10+ ppg, 7+ apg, good 3P%, good AST/TO ratio, average defense
22. Cliff Alexander, PF Kansas Fr. (6-8, 240)
Alexander is a good reminder that not every top 10 prospect comes in, wins a starting job, then lights up the league. However, that is not an indictment on Alexander, who has been very good in the minutes he has played (his per-minute stats are excellent) but it has taken some of the air out of his draft stock. Unless his minutes go up, I would expect Alexander to return to Kansas next year but even if he does declare he will certainly be a first rounder, maybe even a lottery pick. Alexander is strong, athletic, and physical on both ends of the court. He isn't a refined offensive player by any means but he is effective in his role.
Upside: 10+ ppg, 10+ rpg, above-average defense
23. Robert Upshaw, C ??? (7-0, 250)
Upshaw has now been kicked out of two programs in as many seasons, first Fresno State then Washington. He would be wise to make the jump to the D-League like P.J. Hairston and Glen Rice Jr. before him. It is a shame he can't keep out of trouble because on the court Upshaw is a potentially dominate defensive player. At his size with a 7-5+ wingspan and top athleticism for a big man, Upshaw is an intimidating presence in the lane who blocked an NCAA best 4.5 shots in just 24.9 a game (7.2 per 40 minutes!) Offensively he will dunk everything around the basket, but that is where his contributions stop on that end. If he cleans up his act in the D-League, Upshaw should easily be a first round pick, but another slip-up and he could be done for good.
Upside: 8+ ppg, 10+ rpg, elite defense
24. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF Arizona So. (6-7, 220)
Perhaps the best defensive player in college basketball, Hollis-Jefferson is good enough on that end that even with much offensive growth he could make an NBA roster. He cannot shoot a lick from 3-point range, (6 makes in 60 career games) but scores is a couple sneaky ways and is a good enough ball handler to be viable slashing to the rim. The lack of a jumper will limit his minutes and fit for many teams, but a backup who can be used to slow down some of the premier perimeter scorers in the NBA has value.
Upside: 10+ ppg, 5+ rpg, good FT rates, elite defense
25. Dakari Johnson, C Kentucky So. (7-0, 255)
Another safe bet to be a long time NBA contributor, Johnson might be a star on another team, but for the Wildcats he is just another McDonald's All-American. Johnson is certifiably huge and has long arms that make up for just average athletic ability. Johnson is a throwback center who plays physically in the low post and works hard on the glass. He isn't a top shot blocker but should be effective clogging the lane as he learns better positioning. Johnson projects best coming off the bench and beating up on backup centers.
Upside: 10+ ppg, 8+ rpg, high FG%, average defense
26. Domantas Sabonis, PF Gonzaga (6-10, 231)
Sabonis is the mega-sleeper in this draft, son of the great Arvydas Sabonis, he isn't as skilled on the perimeter as his father, but Sabonis is a very smart, efficient player. Like his dad, Sabonis has great court vision (though not Arvydas' otherworld level) and is more than willing to play physical in the paint, where he finishes at a ridiculously high level (.715 FG%). The issue Sabonis faces now is that he is a sixth man on Gonzaga, which means limited exposure to scouts. If he continues to improve from now until the 2016 draft, Sabonis could be a lottery pick. This year is a little more hit-or-miss, but a team willing to take a chance could be handsomely rewarded.
Upside: 14+ ppg, 8+ rpg, high FG%, average defense
27. Christian Wood, PF UNLV So. (6-11, 220)
Calling Christian Wood the "poor man's" Kevon Looney is an insult to Wood, (he's actually been the better player) but their games are comparable. Like Looney, Wood is a long athlete who is very active on the glass, but needs polish in other aspects of his game. Wood is at his best facing up and attacking, but he will need to improve his jumpshot in order access that aspect of his game at the next level. Defensively, he blocks shots but needs to get a lot stronger. Wood is a wildcard because his offensive abilities are mostly projections based if he get stronger and improves his jumpshot.
Upside: 12+ ppg, 9+ rpg, above-average defense
28. Sam Dekker, SF Wisconsin Jr. (6-9, 220)
Dekker was a sleeper in the both the 2013 and 2014 drafts, but went back to school both times and is now more of a borderline pick mainly because he hasn't improved much since his Freshman year. In fact, his shooting has taken a step back since he shot .391%, shooting .304% his last two years. Dekker is tough off the dribble and athletic enough to be an above-average defender, but without the jumper he will have a tough time making it at the next level. His stroke is good and he should be better than he is, so there is a decent chance he improves.
Upside: 12+ ppg, 5+ rpg, above-average defense
29. Kennedy Meeks, C North Carolina So. (6-9, 280)
Meeks will be one of the more interesting prospects in the draft and will be worth watching as the process plays out. Meeks is huge (occasionally too huge) and versatile scoring the basketball in the post, where his size helps him get position. Meeks has good footwork and hands, and is good enough distributing the ball that a college offense could run through him. Defensively, pick-and-rolls will be a struggle but his size should help clogging the lane and he does a decent job blocking shots. The issues with Meeks are conditioning and defense, both of which can be improved, but it may take some patience from the drafting team, which can turn some off.
Upside: 11+ ppg, 8+ rpg, good assist rate, average defense
30. Caris LeVert, G/F Michigan Jr. (6-7, 200)
LeVert was a likely late lottery pick before his season ended with a fractured foot. When healthy, LeVert is a prototypical wing player who can make 3s at a high rate, defend on the perimeter, and create off the dribble. The foot issue likely will keep him from working out, which is a setback to his potential in the draft, but teams will have to take a long look at LeVert because of his skillset and upside.
Upside: 12+ ppg, 3+ rpg, 3+ apg, high 3P%, above-average defense
