Current Roster
PG: Eric Bledsoe/Tyler Ulis
SG: Devin Booker/Brandon Knight/Elijah Millsap
SF: T.J. Warren/Derrick Jones Jr.
PF: Marquese Chriss/Jared Dudley
C: Tyson Chandler/Dragan Bender
2017 Free Agents
Unrestricted
None
Restricted
C Alex Len
C Alan Williams
PG Ronnie Price
2017 Draft Picks
.199% at First Pick (2nd best odds)
2-23
2-55
Building Blocks
For a 24-58 team, the Suns have a surprising amount of talented players. Devin Booker has had moments of offensive brilliance and averaged two more points per game (22.1) than his age (20) while TJ Warren bounced back from early season injury and played well.
Their rookies showed promise as well, Tyler Ulis proved he can hang at the NBA level as a backup point guard, 19-year old Marquese Chriss played in all 82 games and while still a far ways off, at least got valuable experience. Dragan Bender, also just 19, showed flashes as well, but struggled with injuries and didn't get much playing time, however there isn't any reason to thing he can't develop into a rotation player just yet. Even undrafted Derrick Jones Jr. gave some signs that he might be a player down the line.
In spite of his injury struggles (97 games played the last two seasons) Eric Bledsoe has been really, really good. However there is a real question as to whether or not Bledsoe, who will turn 28 in December, is really a part of the Suns future, and just how much they can get for him in a trade this summer if they decide to go in that direction.
Needs Going Forward
The Suns defense has not been good the past two seasons, finishing 26th and 28th in defensive efficiency. Aside from Bledsoe (who waxes and wanes) and Tyson Chandler, they don't have any good defenders on the roster. Ulis and Jones Jr. have potential on that end, but are rookies and bench players and while Jared Dudley is solid, he isn't exactly an impact defensive player. Booker is apocalypticaly bad defensively (93rd among SG in DRPM, 7th worst) as is Warren (77th among SF, 5th worst) and Chriss (94th among PF, absolute worst). Of those three, only Booker should really be a starter next season, so with Bledsoe, Chandler, and better defenders at the forward positions, improvement could come quickly.
Offensively, the Suns have obvious potential, as their most used lineup, the starters, have a 105.4 offensive rating, which would rank as 16th best in the NBA. And that is with a raw rookie in Chriss on the floor as well. Replace him with a more competent player and their offense could really take off, though of course defense would likely still be a problem with Warren and Booker on the floor, which is why two new starters seems like the best course of action, perhaps one free agent and one draft pick. The Suns aren't just a few pieces away from contending, but they could become competent with a couple moves.
Draft and Free Agency Targets
Assuming the Suns pick lands in the top 4, they'll likely have their choice between the top two forwards in the draft, Duke Jayson Tatum and Josh Jackson of Kansas. Tatum is the more advanced offensive player, while Jackson is ahead on defense. If they are indeed deciding between these two, the question will likely be whether or not they believe more in Tatum's defense or Jackson's offense.
In free agency, the Suns will likely not be shopping at the top of the market, but there are still some potential fits for what the need in the mid and lower tier of players. Rudy Gay would be an intriguing buy low option, as he is a better overall offensive and defensive player than he is given credit for and might not cost too much coming off of injury, though of course there is obvious risk. Other intersting buy low options including restricted free agent Nikola Mirotic or veterans like Patrick Patterson and Jonas Jerebko, all three of which are better defenders than you might think.
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Saturday, April 15, 2017
Saturday, March 18, 2017
2017 NBA Draft: Sleepers Outside the First Round
Every year there are players drafted outside the first round or signed as undrafted free agents become NBA rotation players and even stars. This draft will likely be no different. Here are some potential prospects that could fit the bill...
Grayson Allen, SG Duke (6-4, 195) Age: 21
Grayson Allen, SG Duke (6-4, 195) Age: 21
It is sometimes difficult to remember that, despite the other drama surrounding him, Grayson Allen is still a pretty talented player. He is a good athlete and shooter, which is enough to make him interesting to NBA teams. Allen has grown as a playmaker, though not to a primary level and I don't buy that at the NBA level he will draw BS fouls with the flailing and flopping he specializes in, though he is fearless, which goes a long way. He has the tools to be an okay defender, but hasn't really put it all together on that end yet. Allen has been a mess in a lot of ways this season, but there is still a pretty intruiging package, for a second round pick, beneath all the noise.
Dwayne Bacon, SF Florida State (6-7, 210) Age: 21
As a Freshman, Bacon was a good college player, but a questionable NBA prospect, mostly due to his inconsistent jumper. However, this season Bacon has improved his jumper, shooting .281% on threes compared to last years .343%. Due to his size, body, and athleticism, Bacon was already on NBA radars, not a little bit because competent wings are such a rare and valuable commodity. Bacon's jumper is crucial because it sets up his slashing game, where he has made the most consistent hay as a scorer. Defensively, Bacon has the tools to be above-average and maybe play a little bit of small-ball 4, think Jae Crowder-esque upside if the jumper continues to come along.
As a Freshman, Bacon was a good college player, but a questionable NBA prospect, mostly due to his inconsistent jumper. However, this season Bacon has improved his jumper, shooting .281% on threes compared to last years .343%. Due to his size, body, and athleticism, Bacon was already on NBA radars, not a little bit because competent wings are such a rare and valuable commodity. Bacon's jumper is crucial because it sets up his slashing game, where he has made the most consistent hay as a scorer. Defensively, Bacon has the tools to be above-average and maybe play a little bit of small-ball 4, think Jae Crowder-esque upside if the jumper continues to come along.
Jordan Bell, PF/C (6-7, 190) Age: 22
2016-17 Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, Bell is a modern NBA defensive player, equally comfortable defending on the perimeter and protecting the rim (2.2 bpg for his career). That defense alone should give him a shot in the NBA (especially if his 2016 Nike Basketball Academy measurements of 6-8.5, 227 are accurate.) Offensively, Bell is a really good finisher and has shown he has the ball-handling and passing acumen to not be a negative when he gets the ball. Where he has really shown promise is as a shooter; Bell hasn't stretched it out to three yet but he shot a very good .455% on two-point jumpers and .724% from the free throw line. Obviously, he'll never be a force on that end but the question is whether he can be good enough to let his defense play.
Jaron Blossomgame, SF/PF (6-7, 215) Age: 232016-17 Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, Bell is a modern NBA defensive player, equally comfortable defending on the perimeter and protecting the rim (2.2 bpg for his career). That defense alone should give him a shot in the NBA (especially if his 2016 Nike Basketball Academy measurements of 6-8.5, 227 are accurate.) Offensively, Bell is a really good finisher and has shown he has the ball-handling and passing acumen to not be a negative when he gets the ball. Where he has really shown promise is as a shooter; Bell hasn't stretched it out to three yet but he shot a very good .455% on two-point jumpers and .724% from the free throw line. Obviously, he'll never be a force on that end but the question is whether he can be good enough to let his defense play.
Blossomgame was projected as borderline first-round pick last year but he decided to return to school and this year he is... a borderline first round pick. Given how his jump shooting has regressed (.441% from three to .255%), it is a testament to Blossomgame's overall game that he has remained pretty steady as a prospect. Blossomgame is a super athlete with a tough off-the-bounce game and excellent finishing skills. His path to the NBA may be at the power forward position, where he will have a quickness advantage but also has the rebounding and shot-blocking skills to do some of the big man things as well.
Dillon Brooks, SF/PF (6-5, 205) Age: 21
Bell's teammate, Dillon Brooks has been one of the best players in the Pac-12 for the last two seasons. There is no question he is a good scorer who can be efficient from everywhere on the floor, the question is whether he has the size and length to work as a combo forward in the NBA the same what he does in college. Even if measures out at 6-7, Brooks appears to have quite average length, nor is he notably explosive, therefore the margin for error will be quite low at the next level.
Bell's teammate, Dillon Brooks has been one of the best players in the Pac-12 for the last two seasons. There is no question he is a good scorer who can be efficient from everywhere on the floor, the question is whether he has the size and length to work as a combo forward in the NBA the same what he does in college. Even if measures out at 6-7, Brooks appears to have quite average length, nor is he notably explosive, therefore the margin for error will be quite low at the next level.
Bryant Crawford, PG Wake Forest (6-3, 190) Age: 20
While teammate John Collins has gotten all the hype and first round talk, his running mate at Wake Forest, Bryant Crawford, has been just as good this year. Crawford has excellent size and length for a point guard. A smart player and a pesky defender, Crawford provides the kind of versatile overall package of scoring, shooting, distributing, defending that you want in a backup guard with enough upside to dream on due to his age and physical gifts.
While teammate John Collins has gotten all the hype and first round talk, his running mate at Wake Forest, Bryant Crawford, has been just as good this year. Crawford has excellent size and length for a point guard. A smart player and a pesky defender, Crawford provides the kind of versatile overall package of scoring, shooting, distributing, defending that you want in a backup guard with enough upside to dream on due to his age and physical gifts.
Jawun Evans, PG Oklahoma State (6-0, 175) Age: 20
Evans is an uptemp, transition, and pick-and-roll maestro with tremendous ball-handling ability, vision, intelligence, passing, and unselfish style; he also really shoots the ball well, a career .407 from three. The problem is that Evans is small, just around six-feet tall, and this shows up in his .504% shooting at the rim this season, though he does have a good wingspan for his size. Of course, being small isn't a death sentence, it just narrows the percentages chance of success considerably, however Evans has the skills you want in a small guard and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him make it in the NBA.
Evans is an uptemp, transition, and pick-and-roll maestro with tremendous ball-handling ability, vision, intelligence, passing, and unselfish style; he also really shoots the ball well, a career .407 from three. The problem is that Evans is small, just around six-feet tall, and this shows up in his .504% shooting at the rim this season, though he does have a good wingspan for his size. Of course, being small isn't a death sentence, it just narrows the percentages chance of success considerably, however Evans has the skills you want in a small guard and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him make it in the NBA.
Devin Robinson, SF/PF Florida (6-8, 178) Age: 22
Though just a Junior, Devin Robinson seems like he has been on NBA draft radars forever. It is easy to see why, Robinson is bouncy, has good size and length for a combo forward and has become an above-average three-point shooter in the last two seasons. The question is where does he play, Robinson is skinny and lacking the bulk to be a full-time power forward, yet is perhaps not skilled enough to be wing full-time. The answer will probably be bouncing between the positions depending on matchup. That isn't a huge problem, but it puts a cap on his upside.
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable information used in this post.
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable information used in this post.
Monday, February 27, 2017
2017 NBA Mock Draft (2/27)
Before the lottery, mock drafts are pretty silly but it at least gives an idea not only of team needs, but also how the strengths and weaknesses of the draft might play out. I used FiveThirtyEight's projection system (as of 2/24) to determine the draft order, though obviously some things will change by the end of the season, most notably Sacramento is likely to keep their draft pick (if it falls in the top 10) instead of sending it off the Chicago, after trading DeMarcus Cousins. Measurements are college team listed and age is on draft night.
01. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn Nets): Markelle Fultz, PG/SG Washington (6-4, 195) Age: 19
Fultz is the best prospect in the draft, whoever gets the first pick should draft him, no matter who they already have on the roster. For Boston, Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, and Avery Bradley are all becoming free agents in the next two years, so Fultz makes sense beyond that.
02. Phoenix Suns: Josh Jackson, SF Kansas (6-8, 207) Age: 20
The Suns have been searching for a two-way wing for years and they have several options in Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, and Jayson Tatum. Jackson is the better defender and fits next to the Suns' high usage guards. However, Tatum is a real option due to his sophisticated offensive game and based on the high upside style of drafting the Suns have pursed recently, Isaac is also a serious option.
03. Los Angeles Lakers: Lonzo Ball, PG UCLA (6-6, 190) Age: 19
Ball plays in LA, is from nearby Chino Hills, has the Lakers coveted "star" profile, and is a tall point guard that makes flashy plays ala new Lakers President of Basketball Ops Magic Johnson... If the Lakers keep their pick (it has to be top 3) and Ball is available when they select, it's hard to see a bigger lock than this.
04. Orlando Magic: Dennis Smith Jr, PG North Carolina (6-3, 195) Age: 19
Elfrid Payton has been improved, but it is going to be very hard to have a good offense with him as your starting point guard. Dennis Smith Jr. is a different story all together. Whatever Orlando's plan was in building their roster, it hasn't worked and it is time to move in a new direction, starting with Smith.
05. Philadelphia 76ers: Jayson Tatum, SF Duke (6-8, 205) Age: 19
While it might be tempting to put Malik Monk on the Sixers because of fit, but Tatum and Jonathan Isaac are better prospects and also fit needs for Philly. Tatum is good defender and a talented wing scorer who can shoot from three well enough to space the floor for Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
06. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State (6-10, 210) Age: 19
The Timberwolves defense has lacked a versatile forward on both ends of the court for a while now. Andrew Wiggins just hasn't gotten there as a defender and Gorgui Dieng is probably a better option as a backup center. Isaac is a really good fit with the rest of Minnesota's roster.
07. New York Knicks: Malik Monk, SG Kentucky (6-3, 200) Age: 19
The Knicks franchise has been a mess so far this season, but the good news is they will get a chance at finding another building block in the draft. Malik Monk is really up and down, but when he is up he can win a game for you. Sure to be an MSG fan favorite.
08. Sacramento Kings (from New Orleans): De'Aaron Fox, PG Kentucky (6-3, 187) Age: 19
With Darren Collison a free agent this summer and Ty Lawson no one's idea of a starting point guard, the Kings will need to find someone to run the team this summer. Fox isn't a shooting threat, but his passing and defense will be a solid fit in the next era of Kings' basketball.
09. Dallas Mavericks: Lauri Markkanen, PF/C Arizona (7-0, 230) Age: 19
It is probably a little too convenient that the tall European shooter is available to the Mavericks just as Dirk Nowitzki's career is winding down, but... It does make a lot of sense, as does Markkanen's fit next to new Dallas center Nerlens Noel.
10. Charlotte Hornets: Robert Williams, PF/C Texas A&M (6-9, 237) Age: 19
Two years ago the Hornets passed on a young big man from Texas and that didn't work out too well at all. Robert Williams' isn't the level of shooter (yet) that Myles Turner is, but he is a better athlete. Charlotte's backup big man issues have tanked their season and must be solved.
11. Chicago Bulls (from Sacramento): Frank Ntilikina, PG Strasbough (6-5, 170) Age: 18
The Bulls somehow have four point guards on their roster that can't shoot. Frank Ntilikina can not only shoot but he is an excellent pick-and-roll player and versatile defender. Note: this pick will belong to the Kings if it falls in the top ten, a likely outcome.)
12. Portland Trailblazers: Miles Bridges, SF/PF Michigan State (6-7, 230) Age: 19
This is the end of a tier of talent, but it also makes sense for Portland, who might look to get off the money owed wings Even Turner and Moe Harkless. Bridges is a combo forward who fits well next to Portland's guards because he is a spot-up shooter and rim finisher that can guard multiple positions but isn't a shot creator.
13. Milwaukee Bucks: Justin Patton, C Creighton (6-11, 215) Age: 20
Aside from Greg Monroe, the Bucks have several mediocre centers, and Monroe might not be long for Milwaukee. Justin Patton isn't a finished product, but his finishing skills, ability to run the floor, decent shooting touch, and mobility on defense would be a solid fit with the Bucks style of play.
14. Miami Heat: John Collins, PF/C Wake Forest (6-10, 218) Age: 19
The Heat are loaded down with wings and combo guards, but are surprisingly light in the big man spots. John Collins is a hyper-active, bouncy, super productive big man that would fit the Heat culture well.
15. Denver Nuggets: Harry Giles, PF/C Duke (6-10, 240) Age: 19
The Nuggets have so much young talent, they can afford to take a chance with their draft pick. Harry Giles and his knee injuries are definitely a risk, but there is also the reward of possibly a top 3 talent in the draft.
16. Detroit Pistons: Terrance Ferguson, SG Adelaide (6-7, 186) Age: 19
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is going to be one of the most sought after free agents this summer, and even though he is restricted there is a real chance Detroit could lose him. Terrance Ferguson has the KCP starter kit: top level athletic ability and a really nice stroke from the perimeter.
17. Chicago Bulls: Ivan Rabb, PF/C California (6-11, 220) Age: 20
With Taj Gibson traded, Christiano Felicio and Nikola Mirotic pending free agents and Bobby Portis not good yet, the Bulls are all of a sudden looking at a real deficiency in their frontcourt. Ivan Rabb is the kind of player the Bulls like to draft, accomplished and safe, but also lacking a big upside.
18. Indiana Pacers: Jarrett Allen, C Texas (6-11, 235) Age: 19
Well, the last time the Pacers drafted a big man from Texas it worked out, didn't it? Allen isn't quite the prospect that Myles Turner was, but he has tremendous measurables and would fit MUCH better as the Pacers backup center than Al Jefferson, who can't play fast like the Pacers want and tanks their defense.
19. Atlanta Hawks: Tyler Lydon, PF Syracuse (6-8, 205) Age: 21
Between Ryan Kelly and Ersan Ilyasova, it is clear the Hawks would like a stretch four for their system. Lydon is shooting .406% from three through 234 career attempts and he offers much more upside defensively than Kelly or Ilyasova.
20. Oklahoma City Thunder: Luke Kennard, SG Duke (6-5, 180) Age: 20
The Thunder clearly recognize their need for shooting, as they recently traded for Doug McDermott, but even with that addition, they need to add shooting going forward. Kennard is the kind of shooter they need and also makes smart plays, making up some for his physical deficiencies.
21. Toronto Raptors: T.J. Leaf, PF UCLA (6-10, 225) Age: 20
With Serge Ibaka and Patrick Patterson both entering free agency this year, the Raptors will need to shore up their frontcourt in preparation for losing one of them. Leaf has real warts defensively, but he is an active big man with a good outside shot.
22. Portland Trail Blazers (from Memphis): OG Anunoby, SF Indiana (6-8, 215) Age: 19
With three first round picks (at least for now, no doubt they will trade at least one) the Blazers can afford to take a chance, which OG Anunoby would definitely be since he is recovering from a knee injury and has regressed as as shooter, despite his immense defensive talent.
23. Utah Jazz: Justin Jackson, SF North Carolina (6-8, 193) Age: 22
Despite the fact there is no evidence pointing to Gordon Heyward's desire to leave Utah, (hey did you know Brad Stevens coached Heyward in college?) Utah will still need to have a backup plan if Heyward scoots. Jackson isn't Heyward in any way shape or form but he is a smart wing that can really shoot and moves well off the ball.
24. Brooklyn Nets (from Washington): Caleb Swanigan, PF/C Purdue (6-9, 260) Age: 20
The Nets need to make their draft picks count, so swinging for the fences makes sense with at least one of their two firsts this year. Caleb Swanigan isn't a traditional high upside pick because he isn't a great athlete, but he is very skilled and vacuums up rebounds.
25. Orlando Magic (from Los Angeles): Josh Hart, SG Villanova (6-5, 205) Age: 22
Playmaking and shooting have long been problems in Orlando, so Josh Hart fit the bill. Hart is a very good shooter and has really grown handling the ball and passing. His upside is low, but like Malcolm Brogdon last year, Hart looks like an early contributor.
26. Brooklyn Nets (from Boston): Shake Milton, PG/SG SMU (6-5, 195) Age: 20
The Net have had serious issues in their backcourt for the last two seasons and it has really hurt their ability to win games. Milton fits the Nets uptempo style of play and can really do a multitude of things on the court, including make plays, shoot, and defend multiple positions.
27. Los Angeles Lakers (from Houston): Donovan Mitchell, SG Louisville (6-3, 210) Age: 20
The Lakers need at least one guard that can defend. Mitchell can do that, as well as a tough off the dribble game and improved jumper.
28. Portland Trail Blazers (from Cleveland): Isaiah Hartenstein, C Zalgris (7-0, 225) Age: 19
Again, the Blazers are unlikely to use all three draft picks, but if they do they could look to draft-and-stash. Hartenstein has some question marks regarding attitude, but the talent and skill at his size is undeniable.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Bam Adebayo, C Kentucky (6-10, 260) Age: 20
The Spurs worked their magic again and have gotten a huge season out of castoff Dwayne Dedmon, however he will be a free agent this summer and likely to be highly coveted in this market bereft of rim protectors. Adebayo isn't much but an massive, athletic big at this point, but with some work, the Spurs tremendous staff could turn him into a quality backup down the line.
30. Utah Jazz (from Golden State): Johnathan Motley, PF/C Baylor (6-9, 230) Age: 22
Motley is a really solid all-around big that can play some center, which makes his jumper even more of a weapon while he has the defensive and rebounding potential to make it work as a backup big that helps on both ends.
Follow me on Twitter @double_tech
Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable information used in this post.
01. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn Nets): Markelle Fultz, PG/SG Washington (6-4, 195) Age: 19
Fultz is the best prospect in the draft, whoever gets the first pick should draft him, no matter who they already have on the roster. For Boston, Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, and Avery Bradley are all becoming free agents in the next two years, so Fultz makes sense beyond that.
02. Phoenix Suns: Josh Jackson, SF Kansas (6-8, 207) Age: 20
The Suns have been searching for a two-way wing for years and they have several options in Jackson, Jonathan Isaac, and Jayson Tatum. Jackson is the better defender and fits next to the Suns' high usage guards. However, Tatum is a real option due to his sophisticated offensive game and based on the high upside style of drafting the Suns have pursed recently, Isaac is also a serious option.
03. Los Angeles Lakers: Lonzo Ball, PG UCLA (6-6, 190) Age: 19
Ball plays in LA, is from nearby Chino Hills, has the Lakers coveted "star" profile, and is a tall point guard that makes flashy plays ala new Lakers President of Basketball Ops Magic Johnson... If the Lakers keep their pick (it has to be top 3) and Ball is available when they select, it's hard to see a bigger lock than this.
04. Orlando Magic: Dennis Smith Jr, PG North Carolina (6-3, 195) Age: 19
Elfrid Payton has been improved, but it is going to be very hard to have a good offense with him as your starting point guard. Dennis Smith Jr. is a different story all together. Whatever Orlando's plan was in building their roster, it hasn't worked and it is time to move in a new direction, starting with Smith.
05. Philadelphia 76ers: Jayson Tatum, SF Duke (6-8, 205) Age: 19
While it might be tempting to put Malik Monk on the Sixers because of fit, but Tatum and Jonathan Isaac are better prospects and also fit needs for Philly. Tatum is good defender and a talented wing scorer who can shoot from three well enough to space the floor for Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
06. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State (6-10, 210) Age: 19
The Timberwolves defense has lacked a versatile forward on both ends of the court for a while now. Andrew Wiggins just hasn't gotten there as a defender and Gorgui Dieng is probably a better option as a backup center. Isaac is a really good fit with the rest of Minnesota's roster.
07. New York Knicks: Malik Monk, SG Kentucky (6-3, 200) Age: 19
The Knicks franchise has been a mess so far this season, but the good news is they will get a chance at finding another building block in the draft. Malik Monk is really up and down, but when he is up he can win a game for you. Sure to be an MSG fan favorite.
08. Sacramento Kings (from New Orleans): De'Aaron Fox, PG Kentucky (6-3, 187) Age: 19
With Darren Collison a free agent this summer and Ty Lawson no one's idea of a starting point guard, the Kings will need to find someone to run the team this summer. Fox isn't a shooting threat, but his passing and defense will be a solid fit in the next era of Kings' basketball.
09. Dallas Mavericks: Lauri Markkanen, PF/C Arizona (7-0, 230) Age: 19
It is probably a little too convenient that the tall European shooter is available to the Mavericks just as Dirk Nowitzki's career is winding down, but... It does make a lot of sense, as does Markkanen's fit next to new Dallas center Nerlens Noel.
10. Charlotte Hornets: Robert Williams, PF/C Texas A&M (6-9, 237) Age: 19
Two years ago the Hornets passed on a young big man from Texas and that didn't work out too well at all. Robert Williams' isn't the level of shooter (yet) that Myles Turner is, but he is a better athlete. Charlotte's backup big man issues have tanked their season and must be solved.
11. Chicago Bulls (from Sacramento): Frank Ntilikina, PG Strasbough (6-5, 170) Age: 18
The Bulls somehow have four point guards on their roster that can't shoot. Frank Ntilikina can not only shoot but he is an excellent pick-and-roll player and versatile defender. Note: this pick will belong to the Kings if it falls in the top ten, a likely outcome.)
12. Portland Trailblazers: Miles Bridges, SF/PF Michigan State (6-7, 230) Age: 19
This is the end of a tier of talent, but it also makes sense for Portland, who might look to get off the money owed wings Even Turner and Moe Harkless. Bridges is a combo forward who fits well next to Portland's guards because he is a spot-up shooter and rim finisher that can guard multiple positions but isn't a shot creator.
13. Milwaukee Bucks: Justin Patton, C Creighton (6-11, 215) Age: 20
Aside from Greg Monroe, the Bucks have several mediocre centers, and Monroe might not be long for Milwaukee. Justin Patton isn't a finished product, but his finishing skills, ability to run the floor, decent shooting touch, and mobility on defense would be a solid fit with the Bucks style of play.
14. Miami Heat: John Collins, PF/C Wake Forest (6-10, 218) Age: 19
The Heat are loaded down with wings and combo guards, but are surprisingly light in the big man spots. John Collins is a hyper-active, bouncy, super productive big man that would fit the Heat culture well.
15. Denver Nuggets: Harry Giles, PF/C Duke (6-10, 240) Age: 19
The Nuggets have so much young talent, they can afford to take a chance with their draft pick. Harry Giles and his knee injuries are definitely a risk, but there is also the reward of possibly a top 3 talent in the draft.
16. Detroit Pistons: Terrance Ferguson, SG Adelaide (6-7, 186) Age: 19
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is going to be one of the most sought after free agents this summer, and even though he is restricted there is a real chance Detroit could lose him. Terrance Ferguson has the KCP starter kit: top level athletic ability and a really nice stroke from the perimeter.
17. Chicago Bulls: Ivan Rabb, PF/C California (6-11, 220) Age: 20
With Taj Gibson traded, Christiano Felicio and Nikola Mirotic pending free agents and Bobby Portis not good yet, the Bulls are all of a sudden looking at a real deficiency in their frontcourt. Ivan Rabb is the kind of player the Bulls like to draft, accomplished and safe, but also lacking a big upside.
18. Indiana Pacers: Jarrett Allen, C Texas (6-11, 235) Age: 19
Well, the last time the Pacers drafted a big man from Texas it worked out, didn't it? Allen isn't quite the prospect that Myles Turner was, but he has tremendous measurables and would fit MUCH better as the Pacers backup center than Al Jefferson, who can't play fast like the Pacers want and tanks their defense.
19. Atlanta Hawks: Tyler Lydon, PF Syracuse (6-8, 205) Age: 21
Between Ryan Kelly and Ersan Ilyasova, it is clear the Hawks would like a stretch four for their system. Lydon is shooting .406% from three through 234 career attempts and he offers much more upside defensively than Kelly or Ilyasova.
20. Oklahoma City Thunder: Luke Kennard, SG Duke (6-5, 180) Age: 20
The Thunder clearly recognize their need for shooting, as they recently traded for Doug McDermott, but even with that addition, they need to add shooting going forward. Kennard is the kind of shooter they need and also makes smart plays, making up some for his physical deficiencies.
21. Toronto Raptors: T.J. Leaf, PF UCLA (6-10, 225) Age: 20
With Serge Ibaka and Patrick Patterson both entering free agency this year, the Raptors will need to shore up their frontcourt in preparation for losing one of them. Leaf has real warts defensively, but he is an active big man with a good outside shot.
22. Portland Trail Blazers (from Memphis): OG Anunoby, SF Indiana (6-8, 215) Age: 19
With three first round picks (at least for now, no doubt they will trade at least one) the Blazers can afford to take a chance, which OG Anunoby would definitely be since he is recovering from a knee injury and has regressed as as shooter, despite his immense defensive talent.
23. Utah Jazz: Justin Jackson, SF North Carolina (6-8, 193) Age: 22
Despite the fact there is no evidence pointing to Gordon Heyward's desire to leave Utah, (hey did you know Brad Stevens coached Heyward in college?) Utah will still need to have a backup plan if Heyward scoots. Jackson isn't Heyward in any way shape or form but he is a smart wing that can really shoot and moves well off the ball.
24. Brooklyn Nets (from Washington): Caleb Swanigan, PF/C Purdue (6-9, 260) Age: 20
The Nets need to make their draft picks count, so swinging for the fences makes sense with at least one of their two firsts this year. Caleb Swanigan isn't a traditional high upside pick because he isn't a great athlete, but he is very skilled and vacuums up rebounds.
25. Orlando Magic (from Los Angeles): Josh Hart, SG Villanova (6-5, 205) Age: 22
Playmaking and shooting have long been problems in Orlando, so Josh Hart fit the bill. Hart is a very good shooter and has really grown handling the ball and passing. His upside is low, but like Malcolm Brogdon last year, Hart looks like an early contributor.
26. Brooklyn Nets (from Boston): Shake Milton, PG/SG SMU (6-5, 195) Age: 20
The Net have had serious issues in their backcourt for the last two seasons and it has really hurt their ability to win games. Milton fits the Nets uptempo style of play and can really do a multitude of things on the court, including make plays, shoot, and defend multiple positions.
27. Los Angeles Lakers (from Houston): Donovan Mitchell, SG Louisville (6-3, 210) Age: 20
The Lakers need at least one guard that can defend. Mitchell can do that, as well as a tough off the dribble game and improved jumper.
28. Portland Trail Blazers (from Cleveland): Isaiah Hartenstein, C Zalgris (7-0, 225) Age: 19
Again, the Blazers are unlikely to use all three draft picks, but if they do they could look to draft-and-stash. Hartenstein has some question marks regarding attitude, but the talent and skill at his size is undeniable.
29. San Antonio Spurs: Bam Adebayo, C Kentucky (6-10, 260) Age: 20
The Spurs worked their magic again and have gotten a huge season out of castoff Dwayne Dedmon, however he will be a free agent this summer and likely to be highly coveted in this market bereft of rim protectors. Adebayo isn't much but an massive, athletic big at this point, but with some work, the Spurs tremendous staff could turn him into a quality backup down the line.
30. Utah Jazz (from Golden State): Johnathan Motley, PF/C Baylor (6-9, 230) Age: 22
Motley is a really solid all-around big that can play some center, which makes his jumper even more of a weapon while he has the defensive and rebounding potential to make it work as a backup big that helps on both ends.
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Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable information used in this post.
Thursday, February 23, 2017
2017 NBA Draft Rankings: Top 35 (2/23)
The NCAA and NBA regular seasons are slowly winding down so NBA teams out of the playoff race will start to turn their eyes towards the draft, as will their fans looking for hope in the future. Here's a look a 35 prospects that could hear their name called on draft night and perhaps turn around a Franchise if everything goes right. Measurements are college team listed and age is on draft night.
01. Markelle Fultz, PG/SG Washington (6-4, 195) Age: 19
After ascending to the top spot early in the year, Fultz has done nothing to lose a firm grasp on the top of prospect boards. Yes, his team is really bad but that doesn't matter when it comes to evaluation, he is just a cut above in terms of talent from the rest of this class. A clear number one in my mind.
02. Josh Jackson, SF/PF Kansas (6-8, 207) Age: 20
After Fultz, there are a number of players in the running for #2, but none match Josh Jackson's production, potential, and positional value. Jackson defense has been as good as expected, but it is his improved passing and 3-point shooting that have been most impressive. He still has a some rough edges to refine (consistency as a shooter, turnovers as a playmaker) but Jackson has a pretty impressive package of skills and plays one of the most sought-after positions in the league on the wing.
03. Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State (6-10, 210) Age: 19
Much that can be said about Jackson can also be said about Isaac. He isn't the same explosive level of player, but he is bigger and longer, to the point that he could possibly player center down the line. Know how many 6-10/11 players in the NBA have had a season where they have averaged 1.5 blocks per game, 1 steal per game, shot 61% from 2 and 36% from 3? Zero. Those are Isaac's stats through 25 games this season.
04. Dennis Smith Jr, PG North Carolina State (6-3, 195) Age: 19
After a slow start coming off a knee injury, Dennis Smith has found his stride and been the dynamic player he was pre-injury. North Carolina State has been a mess this season and Smith has certainly not been without fault, however Smith has still be incredibly productive and efficient. There are few more explosive point guards in College or NBA than Smith and it is easy to see just how much potential he has, with his current package pretty good right now. Think young Eric Bledsoe athleticism with older Bledsoe skills.
05. Lonzo Ball, PG UCLA (6-6, 190) Age: 19
Ball could easily be drafted second overall and it would be hard to argue with the choice. Ball is one of the most instinct and natural basketball players I have ever seen, he knows how to make the right play on both ends and does so much to help his team win. There are real concerns about his ability to create his own shot and penetrate defenses, but those are minor quibbles when compared to all he can do.
06. Jayson Tatum, SF/PF Duke (6-8, 205) Age: 19
Tatum has had a rollercoaster season, starting out hot before struggling in the middle of the season then bouncing back lately. There is no doubt that Tatum knows how to score, in the classic wing way of creating space for his mid-range shot. Though not a special athlete, Tatum will flash explosiveness and has good potential as a defender of multiple positions. The question isn't whether Tatum will score, it is if he can score efficiently as as part of a team concept, as he can become too mid-range/iso-heavy at times.
07. Frank Ntilikina, PG Strasbourg [FRA] (6-5, 170) Age: 18
Ntilikina has been out of sight, out of mind for the most of the season but he is one of the more intriguing prospects in this draft because of his size (6-5 plus with great length) and pure point guard ability. Ntilikina is an excellent pick-and-roll player who can also make shots off the dribble and make the correct plays. With his size and length, Ntilikina has the potential to be a really good defender of multiple positions. Like Ball, he isn't a sudden or super-quick athlete but Ntilikina is smooth and heady enough to create the separation needed.
08. Malik Monk, SG Kentucky (6-3, 200) Age: 19
Monk has been one of the most electric players this season but also one of the most frustrating. Basically, Monk can carry his team to victory if his shot is falling but provides very little when it isn't. Despite shooting .409% from three so far this season, Monk has shot less than 35% from three 15 times but more than 50% 11 times; basically he is really hot or cold most of the time. Beyond that, he doesn't pass the ball or get the rim well and is just so-so as a defender, especially considering his below average size and length for an off-guard. But again, he is an electric player that with consistency could be a really valuable scorer, one that can get his shot off no matter.
09. Lauri Markkanen, PF/C Arizona (7-0, 230) Age: 19
Markkanen has put together a special season shooting the ball, through 28 games he's nailed a blistering .457% on 4.6 attempts a game, a feat achieved only seventeen times in NBA history, and none of those players are anywhere close to seven feet tall. Obviously there are questions about his ability to defend and rebound, to do typical big man things, however even if he just reaches average levels in those areas, his shooting ability will make him a star.
10. Robert Williams, PF/C Texas A&M (6-9, 237) Age: 19
Williams has truly been one of the most impressive Freshmen this season and as such, he has seen his stock rise from second round to lottery accordingly. It's not hard to see why, Williams has an impressive build and athletic ability, with a long 7-4+ wingspan and a reach that makes playing center a real option for Williams. Add to that his incredible quick bounce, fluidity, and a surprisingly nice looking jumper and you can really dream on Williams potential, with a Myles Turner-like upside.
11. De'Aaron Fox, PG Kentucky (6-3, 187) Age: 19
While his teammate Malik Monk has been mercurial, Fox has been a much more steady contributor. What Fox is, is a tremendous defender and passer with the quickness to breakdown defenses and the vision to be a really good playmaker. However, Fox is also shooting .173% on threes and .311% on two-point jumpers, which is going to hold him back to Ricky Rubio level contribution until that improves (which, by the way, is not a bad outcome for a lottery pick).
12. Miles Bridges, SF/PF Michigan State (6-7, 230) Age: 19
Bridges will likely suffer from unfair comparisons to another undersized, strong forward from Michigan State (no, not Branden Dawson) but Bridges is a different type of player. Bridges is a tremendous, strong and explosive athlete capable of a multitude of highlight finishes well above the rim while also making .406% from three on 4.8 attempts per game. While that may oversell his true shooting ability somewhat, the fact that he can make a respectable percentage of threes while also being a such a threat finishing at that basket and providing defensive versatility makes Bridges a potentially valuable contributor.
13. Terrance Ferguson, SG/SF Adelaide [AUS] (6-7, 186) Age: 19
The big time recruit has been, like Ntilikina, out of sight out of mind playing overseas for a year before entering the NBA draft. Ferguson is a top level athlete with great size for a two guard and at least the length if not the bulk quite yet to play the three. Ferguson's shooting and defense should seamlessly fit into the NBA as a role player, and as a young guy with his athleticism there isn't a lack of upside for more. Think Terrence Ross with better defense and potential for more of and off the bounce game.
14. Justin Patton, C Creighton (6-11, 215) Age: 20
Patton came out of nowhere for Creighton, rising from unknown to potential lottery pick over the course of the season. Patton oozes potential just looking at him, with long arms and the kind of frame you can see filling out nicely. He runs the floor hard and has great hands and footwork, allowing him to convert around the basket at a ridiculous .817% shooting around the rim, a not insignificant number considering he does post up and isn't just a lob finisher. Patton has even shown some nice touch shooting the ball, though his poor free throw shooting numbers call that into question. Patton is more a collection of tools and skills than a finish product at this point, but oh boy are those skills impressive.
15. John Collins, PF/C Wake Forest (6-10, 218) Age: 19
One of the most productive players this season, John Collins is averaging a ridiculous 41 points and 20.8 rebounds per 100 possessions so far this season. Collins is the definition of bouncy and active, using his length and athleticism to finish at the rim, grab rebounds and block shots. Collins needs some refinement, he is still learning the intricacies of offense and defense, and there is some question of his feel, but even as a better rebounding Brandon Wright-type backup big man, Collins has some real value.
16. Jarrett Allen, C Texas (6-11, 235) Age: 19
Allen has flown under the radar this season, however for a freshman center, he has been very good, playing heavy minutes and being productive. Allen is far from a finished product, but prospects with his size, length (7-5+ wingspan), and athletic ability don't come along every day. Allen has shown nice touch on his jumper out to mid-range and it's not hard to dream on what he could become if that develops. Great hair too.
17. Ivan Rabb, PF/C California (6-11, 220) Age: 20
If you are looking for a solid all-around contributor as a backup big man, look no further than Rabb. Rabb has shown that he can score in the post, shoot it a little from the outside, and finish lobs at the rim while also posting strong rebounding numbers and being at least an average rim protector. Unless Rabb can really grow as a three-point shooter, his best role is probably as a backup center, where his lack of strength won't hurt as much but he won't have to defend on the perimeter (a weakness) like he would as a power forward.
18. Tyler Lydon, PF Syracuse (6-8, 205) Age: 21
After a slow start, Tyler Lydon is all of a sudden shooting .415% from three and playing very well. Lydon isn't a potential star, but neither is he just a role player at the next level either. Power forwards that can make threes at an above-average rate, block shots, and attack close-outs don't grow on trees and those are all things that Lydon can do. He needs to get stronger and there are always the Syracuse/Zone questions, but the potential for what Lydon can bring is worth that risk.
19. Harry Giles, PF/C Duke (6-10, 240) Age: 19
What to do with Harry Giles? Pre-multiple knee injuries he was a top 5 pick at worst, now? He's averaging 11.9 minutes a game and looks tentative, lacking explosiveness and agility. Is he just working off the rust or is there long-term damage? Giles could declare and certainly be drafted in the first round (provided medical checks out) or return for another year at Duke and potentially be launched back in the top pick conversation, but also risk being permanently labeled damaged goods. Only time will tell what the correct decision is, hopefully whatever the outcome it involves Giles getting back to full strength.
20. OG Anunoby, SF/PF Indiana (6-8, 215) Age: 19
Anunoby is in a tough spot, after being considered in the top ten early in the year, his shooting slumped and then he injured his knee and is out for the rest of the season. He could still declare for the draft and would certainly be a first rounder, providing his knee is okay long term, However, like Giles, if Anunoby returns next year, improves his shooting while keeping up the elite level of defense, he could easily be a top ten pick but risk falling even further if he shows again his jumper hasn't develop as hoped. Anunoby is a tremendous defensive player who has shown he can score around the rim efficiently, however similarly to Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, his upside will be determined how well his jumper improves.
21. Mikal Bridges, SF Villanova (6-7, 200) Age: 20
Try not to over think this, a wing with a 7-0+ wingspan, super athletic ability, who is shooting .402% from three, .716%(!) from two point range, and .913% from the line. A potential super efficient two-way wing player, sign me up.
22. Isaiah Hartenstein, PF/C Zalgris [LITH] (7-0, 225) Age: 19
Similarly to Jusef Nurkic and to a lesser extent (at least skill wise) DeMarcus Cousins, Isaiah Hartenstein is a massive, skilled big man with some serious on-court attitude issues (which DraftExpress break down here). Hartenstein's skill level is high though, he can handle, pass, and shoot.
23. Justin Jackson, SF North Carolina (6-8, 193) Age: 22
Before shooting .396% on threes this season (197 attempts), Justin Jackson shot .297% (212 attempts), so there is a fair chance he shooting regresses as a near 22-year old. However, Jackson is a very smart player and that should serve him well as a ball-mover, cutter, and team defender. If the shooting is a for real, Jackson has an Otto Porter type upside.
24. Zach Collins, PF Gonzaga (6-10, 215) Age: 19
Collins is playing really well on a deep Gonzaga team and probably more of a 2018 prospect, however if he were to declare I think his combination of skill and athletic ability would be worthy of a first round pick, but he could go even higher in 2018.
25. Johnathan Motley, PF/C Baylor (6-9, 230) Age: 22
A somewhat skilled, athletic big man with center measurements, Motley looks like a solid bet as a backup big man that can contribute on defense and the glass while also not being completely lost of on offense, finishing strong and knocking down jumpers.
26. Donovan Mitchell, SG Louisville (6-3, 210) Age: 20
Stepping into a bigger role as a Sophomore, Donovan Mitchell has shown toughness as a driver, some playmaking skills, great defense, and he has really improved his jumper. He's an undersized two, likely to be relegated to a bench role, but he could be effective there.
27. Luke Kennard, SG Duke (6-5, 180) Age: 20
Despite playing with much more hyped players, Kennard has easily been Duke's best player this season and projects to a be a solid backup shooter in the NBA. Kennard is a knockdown shooter with tremendous smarts and a crafty off the dribble game.
28. Shake Milton, PG/SG SMU (6-5, 195) Age: 20
Milton is an ideal backup guard, one that can guard multiple positions, make plays off the dribble and shoot. He is a jack-of-all-trades type that can fill in at both guards spots and work in a multitude of different lineups, Milton isn't without upside either, as he is only 20 years old and has improved over the course of his career thus far.
29. T.J. Leaf, PF UCLA (6-10, 225) Age: 20
Like Collins, Leaf might be more of a 2018 prospect, though it is still very possible he declares for this draft. Leaf has shot the ball well from three this season (on low volume) but his real strength is his activity on the glass and skill with the ball, though it is important to remember that UCLA has amazing spacing and many capable guards to get him the ball. Right now Leaf is a negative defensively and his mediocre measurables will make journey to positive impact an uphill one.
30. Josh Hart, SG Villanova (6-5, 205) Age: 22
An All-American and National Champion, there isn't much more for Josh Hart to achieve in college, though that hasn't stopped his game from growing. Hart has become a much better passer and playmaker this year. Hart is essentially Malcolm Brogdon 2.0, a low upside guard that can shoot, make some plays, and defend, despite so-so physical gifts.
31. Caleb Swanigan, PF/C Purdue (6-9, 260) Age: 20
In some eyes, Swanigan is the favorite for National Player of the Year, so that gives you some sense of his production so far this season. Swanigan is a below the rim center with measurables and game eerily similar to Jared Sullinger. He is a high volume rebounder and post scorer with some range on his jumper, but also unathletic and slow-footed with serious question marks defensively.
32. Rodions Kurucs, Barcelona B [ESP] (6-8, 190) Age: 19
Kurucs is a one of the new breed of Euro prospects, an athletic slashing wing that loves to attack the basket. He needs to improve his defense and shooting, but down the line a team could reap the rewards of a patient development.
33. Dwayne Bacon, SF Florida State (6-7, 210) Age: 21
Besides a tasty name, Dwayne Bacon has the kind of strength that modern NBA wings need to work in switch heavy offenses. Add to that a decent off the bounce game with an improved jumper and Bacon has some potential as a solid backup two-way wing.
34. Bruce Brown, PG Miami (6-3, 200) Age: 20
Brown has the athletic profile you look for in an NBA point guard, though he will likely need some seasoning in terms of learning to run an offense and become a truly consistent shooter, particularly off the dribble. Brown seems like a perfect candidate for one of the new "two-way" contract that would allow him to develop in the D-League for a year or so before stepping in as a backup point guard.
35. Edrice "Bam" Adebayo, C Kentucky (6-10, 260) Age: 19
A couple years ago, Adebayo would be much more highly regarded when it comes to the NBA, but nowadays it's hard to find much more than a reserve role for him. He's huge and athletic, really good at finishing at the rim and sets solid screens, but... beyond that he has no range and is just and okay defender and rebounder. In the one-and-done atmosphere of Kentucky it'll be hard for Adebayo to return to school and work on his game, but it would probably be the best move.
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Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable draft information used in this post.
01. Markelle Fultz, PG/SG Washington (6-4, 195) Age: 19
After ascending to the top spot early in the year, Fultz has done nothing to lose a firm grasp on the top of prospect boards. Yes, his team is really bad but that doesn't matter when it comes to evaluation, he is just a cut above in terms of talent from the rest of this class. A clear number one in my mind.
02. Josh Jackson, SF/PF Kansas (6-8, 207) Age: 20
After Fultz, there are a number of players in the running for #2, but none match Josh Jackson's production, potential, and positional value. Jackson defense has been as good as expected, but it is his improved passing and 3-point shooting that have been most impressive. He still has a some rough edges to refine (consistency as a shooter, turnovers as a playmaker) but Jackson has a pretty impressive package of skills and plays one of the most sought-after positions in the league on the wing.
03. Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State (6-10, 210) Age: 19
Much that can be said about Jackson can also be said about Isaac. He isn't the same explosive level of player, but he is bigger and longer, to the point that he could possibly player center down the line. Know how many 6-10/11 players in the NBA have had a season where they have averaged 1.5 blocks per game, 1 steal per game, shot 61% from 2 and 36% from 3? Zero. Those are Isaac's stats through 25 games this season.
04. Dennis Smith Jr, PG North Carolina State (6-3, 195) Age: 19
After a slow start coming off a knee injury, Dennis Smith has found his stride and been the dynamic player he was pre-injury. North Carolina State has been a mess this season and Smith has certainly not been without fault, however Smith has still be incredibly productive and efficient. There are few more explosive point guards in College or NBA than Smith and it is easy to see just how much potential he has, with his current package pretty good right now. Think young Eric Bledsoe athleticism with older Bledsoe skills.
05. Lonzo Ball, PG UCLA (6-6, 190) Age: 19
Ball could easily be drafted second overall and it would be hard to argue with the choice. Ball is one of the most instinct and natural basketball players I have ever seen, he knows how to make the right play on both ends and does so much to help his team win. There are real concerns about his ability to create his own shot and penetrate defenses, but those are minor quibbles when compared to all he can do.
06. Jayson Tatum, SF/PF Duke (6-8, 205) Age: 19
Tatum has had a rollercoaster season, starting out hot before struggling in the middle of the season then bouncing back lately. There is no doubt that Tatum knows how to score, in the classic wing way of creating space for his mid-range shot. Though not a special athlete, Tatum will flash explosiveness and has good potential as a defender of multiple positions. The question isn't whether Tatum will score, it is if he can score efficiently as as part of a team concept, as he can become too mid-range/iso-heavy at times.
07. Frank Ntilikina, PG Strasbourg [FRA] (6-5, 170) Age: 18
Ntilikina has been out of sight, out of mind for the most of the season but he is one of the more intriguing prospects in this draft because of his size (6-5 plus with great length) and pure point guard ability. Ntilikina is an excellent pick-and-roll player who can also make shots off the dribble and make the correct plays. With his size and length, Ntilikina has the potential to be a really good defender of multiple positions. Like Ball, he isn't a sudden or super-quick athlete but Ntilikina is smooth and heady enough to create the separation needed.
08. Malik Monk, SG Kentucky (6-3, 200) Age: 19
Monk has been one of the most electric players this season but also one of the most frustrating. Basically, Monk can carry his team to victory if his shot is falling but provides very little when it isn't. Despite shooting .409% from three so far this season, Monk has shot less than 35% from three 15 times but more than 50% 11 times; basically he is really hot or cold most of the time. Beyond that, he doesn't pass the ball or get the rim well and is just so-so as a defender, especially considering his below average size and length for an off-guard. But again, he is an electric player that with consistency could be a really valuable scorer, one that can get his shot off no matter.
09. Lauri Markkanen, PF/C Arizona (7-0, 230) Age: 19
Markkanen has put together a special season shooting the ball, through 28 games he's nailed a blistering .457% on 4.6 attempts a game, a feat achieved only seventeen times in NBA history, and none of those players are anywhere close to seven feet tall. Obviously there are questions about his ability to defend and rebound, to do typical big man things, however even if he just reaches average levels in those areas, his shooting ability will make him a star.
10. Robert Williams, PF/C Texas A&M (6-9, 237) Age: 19
Williams has truly been one of the most impressive Freshmen this season and as such, he has seen his stock rise from second round to lottery accordingly. It's not hard to see why, Williams has an impressive build and athletic ability, with a long 7-4+ wingspan and a reach that makes playing center a real option for Williams. Add to that his incredible quick bounce, fluidity, and a surprisingly nice looking jumper and you can really dream on Williams potential, with a Myles Turner-like upside.
11. De'Aaron Fox, PG Kentucky (6-3, 187) Age: 19
While his teammate Malik Monk has been mercurial, Fox has been a much more steady contributor. What Fox is, is a tremendous defender and passer with the quickness to breakdown defenses and the vision to be a really good playmaker. However, Fox is also shooting .173% on threes and .311% on two-point jumpers, which is going to hold him back to Ricky Rubio level contribution until that improves (which, by the way, is not a bad outcome for a lottery pick).
12. Miles Bridges, SF/PF Michigan State (6-7, 230) Age: 19
Bridges will likely suffer from unfair comparisons to another undersized, strong forward from Michigan State (no, not Branden Dawson) but Bridges is a different type of player. Bridges is a tremendous, strong and explosive athlete capable of a multitude of highlight finishes well above the rim while also making .406% from three on 4.8 attempts per game. While that may oversell his true shooting ability somewhat, the fact that he can make a respectable percentage of threes while also being a such a threat finishing at that basket and providing defensive versatility makes Bridges a potentially valuable contributor.
13. Terrance Ferguson, SG/SF Adelaide [AUS] (6-7, 186) Age: 19
The big time recruit has been, like Ntilikina, out of sight out of mind playing overseas for a year before entering the NBA draft. Ferguson is a top level athlete with great size for a two guard and at least the length if not the bulk quite yet to play the three. Ferguson's shooting and defense should seamlessly fit into the NBA as a role player, and as a young guy with his athleticism there isn't a lack of upside for more. Think Terrence Ross with better defense and potential for more of and off the bounce game.
14. Justin Patton, C Creighton (6-11, 215) Age: 20
Patton came out of nowhere for Creighton, rising from unknown to potential lottery pick over the course of the season. Patton oozes potential just looking at him, with long arms and the kind of frame you can see filling out nicely. He runs the floor hard and has great hands and footwork, allowing him to convert around the basket at a ridiculous .817% shooting around the rim, a not insignificant number considering he does post up and isn't just a lob finisher. Patton has even shown some nice touch shooting the ball, though his poor free throw shooting numbers call that into question. Patton is more a collection of tools and skills than a finish product at this point, but oh boy are those skills impressive.
15. John Collins, PF/C Wake Forest (6-10, 218) Age: 19
One of the most productive players this season, John Collins is averaging a ridiculous 41 points and 20.8 rebounds per 100 possessions so far this season. Collins is the definition of bouncy and active, using his length and athleticism to finish at the rim, grab rebounds and block shots. Collins needs some refinement, he is still learning the intricacies of offense and defense, and there is some question of his feel, but even as a better rebounding Brandon Wright-type backup big man, Collins has some real value.
16. Jarrett Allen, C Texas (6-11, 235) Age: 19
Allen has flown under the radar this season, however for a freshman center, he has been very good, playing heavy minutes and being productive. Allen is far from a finished product, but prospects with his size, length (7-5+ wingspan), and athletic ability don't come along every day. Allen has shown nice touch on his jumper out to mid-range and it's not hard to dream on what he could become if that develops. Great hair too.
17. Ivan Rabb, PF/C California (6-11, 220) Age: 20
If you are looking for a solid all-around contributor as a backup big man, look no further than Rabb. Rabb has shown that he can score in the post, shoot it a little from the outside, and finish lobs at the rim while also posting strong rebounding numbers and being at least an average rim protector. Unless Rabb can really grow as a three-point shooter, his best role is probably as a backup center, where his lack of strength won't hurt as much but he won't have to defend on the perimeter (a weakness) like he would as a power forward.
18. Tyler Lydon, PF Syracuse (6-8, 205) Age: 21
After a slow start, Tyler Lydon is all of a sudden shooting .415% from three and playing very well. Lydon isn't a potential star, but neither is he just a role player at the next level either. Power forwards that can make threes at an above-average rate, block shots, and attack close-outs don't grow on trees and those are all things that Lydon can do. He needs to get stronger and there are always the Syracuse/Zone questions, but the potential for what Lydon can bring is worth that risk.
19. Harry Giles, PF/C Duke (6-10, 240) Age: 19
What to do with Harry Giles? Pre-multiple knee injuries he was a top 5 pick at worst, now? He's averaging 11.9 minutes a game and looks tentative, lacking explosiveness and agility. Is he just working off the rust or is there long-term damage? Giles could declare and certainly be drafted in the first round (provided medical checks out) or return for another year at Duke and potentially be launched back in the top pick conversation, but also risk being permanently labeled damaged goods. Only time will tell what the correct decision is, hopefully whatever the outcome it involves Giles getting back to full strength.
20. OG Anunoby, SF/PF Indiana (6-8, 215) Age: 19
Anunoby is in a tough spot, after being considered in the top ten early in the year, his shooting slumped and then he injured his knee and is out for the rest of the season. He could still declare for the draft and would certainly be a first rounder, providing his knee is okay long term, However, like Giles, if Anunoby returns next year, improves his shooting while keeping up the elite level of defense, he could easily be a top ten pick but risk falling even further if he shows again his jumper hasn't develop as hoped. Anunoby is a tremendous defensive player who has shown he can score around the rim efficiently, however similarly to Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, his upside will be determined how well his jumper improves.
21. Mikal Bridges, SF Villanova (6-7, 200) Age: 20
Try not to over think this, a wing with a 7-0+ wingspan, super athletic ability, who is shooting .402% from three, .716%(!) from two point range, and .913% from the line. A potential super efficient two-way wing player, sign me up.
22. Isaiah Hartenstein, PF/C Zalgris [LITH] (7-0, 225) Age: 19
Similarly to Jusef Nurkic and to a lesser extent (at least skill wise) DeMarcus Cousins, Isaiah Hartenstein is a massive, skilled big man with some serious on-court attitude issues (which DraftExpress break down here). Hartenstein's skill level is high though, he can handle, pass, and shoot.
23. Justin Jackson, SF North Carolina (6-8, 193) Age: 22
Before shooting .396% on threes this season (197 attempts), Justin Jackson shot .297% (212 attempts), so there is a fair chance he shooting regresses as a near 22-year old. However, Jackson is a very smart player and that should serve him well as a ball-mover, cutter, and team defender. If the shooting is a for real, Jackson has an Otto Porter type upside.
24. Zach Collins, PF Gonzaga (6-10, 215) Age: 19
Collins is playing really well on a deep Gonzaga team and probably more of a 2018 prospect, however if he were to declare I think his combination of skill and athletic ability would be worthy of a first round pick, but he could go even higher in 2018.
25. Johnathan Motley, PF/C Baylor (6-9, 230) Age: 22
A somewhat skilled, athletic big man with center measurements, Motley looks like a solid bet as a backup big man that can contribute on defense and the glass while also not being completely lost of on offense, finishing strong and knocking down jumpers.
26. Donovan Mitchell, SG Louisville (6-3, 210) Age: 20
Stepping into a bigger role as a Sophomore, Donovan Mitchell has shown toughness as a driver, some playmaking skills, great defense, and he has really improved his jumper. He's an undersized two, likely to be relegated to a bench role, but he could be effective there.
27. Luke Kennard, SG Duke (6-5, 180) Age: 20
Despite playing with much more hyped players, Kennard has easily been Duke's best player this season and projects to a be a solid backup shooter in the NBA. Kennard is a knockdown shooter with tremendous smarts and a crafty off the dribble game.
28. Shake Milton, PG/SG SMU (6-5, 195) Age: 20
Milton is an ideal backup guard, one that can guard multiple positions, make plays off the dribble and shoot. He is a jack-of-all-trades type that can fill in at both guards spots and work in a multitude of different lineups, Milton isn't without upside either, as he is only 20 years old and has improved over the course of his career thus far.
29. T.J. Leaf, PF UCLA (6-10, 225) Age: 20
Like Collins, Leaf might be more of a 2018 prospect, though it is still very possible he declares for this draft. Leaf has shot the ball well from three this season (on low volume) but his real strength is his activity on the glass and skill with the ball, though it is important to remember that UCLA has amazing spacing and many capable guards to get him the ball. Right now Leaf is a negative defensively and his mediocre measurables will make journey to positive impact an uphill one.
30. Josh Hart, SG Villanova (6-5, 205) Age: 22
An All-American and National Champion, there isn't much more for Josh Hart to achieve in college, though that hasn't stopped his game from growing. Hart has become a much better passer and playmaker this year. Hart is essentially Malcolm Brogdon 2.0, a low upside guard that can shoot, make some plays, and defend, despite so-so physical gifts.
31. Caleb Swanigan, PF/C Purdue (6-9, 260) Age: 20
In some eyes, Swanigan is the favorite for National Player of the Year, so that gives you some sense of his production so far this season. Swanigan is a below the rim center with measurables and game eerily similar to Jared Sullinger. He is a high volume rebounder and post scorer with some range on his jumper, but also unathletic and slow-footed with serious question marks defensively.
32. Rodions Kurucs, Barcelona B [ESP] (6-8, 190) Age: 19
Kurucs is a one of the new breed of Euro prospects, an athletic slashing wing that loves to attack the basket. He needs to improve his defense and shooting, but down the line a team could reap the rewards of a patient development.
33. Dwayne Bacon, SF Florida State (6-7, 210) Age: 21
Besides a tasty name, Dwayne Bacon has the kind of strength that modern NBA wings need to work in switch heavy offenses. Add to that a decent off the bounce game with an improved jumper and Bacon has some potential as a solid backup two-way wing.
34. Bruce Brown, PG Miami (6-3, 200) Age: 20
Brown has the athletic profile you look for in an NBA point guard, though he will likely need some seasoning in terms of learning to run an offense and become a truly consistent shooter, particularly off the dribble. Brown seems like a perfect candidate for one of the new "two-way" contract that would allow him to develop in the D-League for a year or so before stepping in as a backup point guard.
35. Edrice "Bam" Adebayo, C Kentucky (6-10, 260) Age: 19
A couple years ago, Adebayo would be much more highly regarded when it comes to the NBA, but nowadays it's hard to find much more than a reserve role for him. He's huge and athletic, really good at finishing at the rim and sets solid screens, but... beyond that he has no range and is just and okay defender and rebounder. In the one-and-done atmosphere of Kentucky it'll be hard for Adebayo to return to school and work on his game, but it would probably be the best move.
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Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable draft information used in this post.
Monday, December 26, 2016
2017 NBA Draft: Breaking Down De'Aaron Fox
De'Aaron Fox, Point Guard, Kentucky
Height: 6-3 Weight: 187 Age: 19
De'Aaron Fox has managed to be a high level impact player despite performing quite poorly from an efficiency standpoint, including a well below average .452 eFG% and a .513 TS% For example, his TS% would be 39th of qualified point guards in the NBA, just behind Ricky Rubio.
The root of Fox's ineffiency comes from the fact that he has proved almost completely ineffective as a shooter. Fox is just not a threat from three-point range (.153% on 26 attempts) nor does he have much more success on two point jumpers (.291% on 55 attempts). At the college level, defenses are unsophisticated and frankly, frequently just poorly coached. For example, against North Carolina, Fox's defender consistently fought through the screens set for Fox instead of going under them, despite that he is little threat shooting the ball. Until Fox can prove he can shoot when left open, NBA defenses will give him open shots and go under screens against him, seriously hindering his ability to gain an advantage driving to the rim. Fox's jumper isn't terrible looking, but it just does t go in and hasn't throughout his young career in college and high school.
Fox is very quick and athletic, so he can still get to the rim, even without that advantage at the college level. Fox has taken nearly half his shots at the rim. Once he gets there, Fox is a good finisher (.658%) but needs to improve in contested situations, where his lack of strength and so-so touch can occasionally become issues, weaknesses that will only be exacerbated in the NBA when defenders become stronger, longer, and more athletic. It should be said that this iteration of Kentucky is very shooting-light, featuring only two players shooting better than 35% from three, so Fox isn't being given much room to operate, something that should improve in the NBA.
It is all the other areas that Fox really excels, he is a tremendous passer with a good handle, creativity and vision. He is excellent in transition, pushing the ball with both the dribble and the pass and has extensive experience running pick-and-roll and generally makes the correct decisions.
Defensively, Fox has a chance to be special (provided his lack of strength doesn't prove to much of a hinderance) he has tremendous lateral agility, great defensive instincts and quick, disruptive hands to create deflections and steals. What is most impressive about Fox is how hard he competes on a play-to-play basis, which shows in his defensive tenacity, transition ability, and contributions on the glass (8.1 rebound rate).
Even if his ability to shoot and score efficiently never improves to an above-average rate, Fox's passing, defense, motor, and intelligence should allow him to stick in the league, ironically in a similar way that Ricky Rubio has succeeded and been a positive contributor in the NBA.
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2017 NBA Draft: Breaking Down Lonzo Ball
Lonzo Ball, UCLA
Height: 6-6 Weight: 190 Age: 19
Statistically, Ball has been one of the most efficient players in college basketball, posting a .664 TS% and .659 eFG%, both elite numbers for a point guard. This is even more impressive when you consider that he neither gets fouled a ton (4.4 FTA/100 possessions) nor does he convert said free throws at a high rate (.658%). Ball's efficiency is built almost completely on his ability to score from the field, taking and making a high number of threes per game (7.7 per 100) while also scoring absurdly effienctly from two point range (.673%). His two point shooting is almost all based at the rim, as 2-point jumpers make up a paltry 6% of his shot taking.
However, here lies some of the concern for Ball, who clearly benefits from the elite offensive talent around him; for example UCLA has five players averaging heavy minutes shooting over 39% from three, which certainly contributes to Ball shooting .726% at the rim as elite spacing provides much easier opportunities at the basket, especially when you factor in Ball's passing ability requires opponents to stay at home on shooters. Additionally, Ball isn't an great one-foot leaper, which makes finish contested shoots at the rim more difficult. Unless Ball is drafted into the perfect situation in the NBA, he won't be nearly as effective at the rim, which is a large part of why he has been so effienctly so far in college. What about the other half of his offensive efficiency? Ball's three-point shooting is also some what questionable, and not just because his jumper makes Kevin Martin's shot look textbook. What isconcerning is that Ball's three pointers are being assisted on .793% of the time, that means that only 1/5 of his jumpers are created on his own. Ball likes to pull up in transition, which is one way he creates open threes, but overall Ball's awkward release makes shooting off the dribble, particularly when defends go under screens, difficult. Overall, his shot is easier to challenge than most so when the spacing UCLA has most likely disappears at the next level, he could see his open shots drop because of the margin for error lessening.
Overall, Ball will most likely be more of an opportunistic scorer in the NBA, scoring in transition and using the threat of his passing to create open looks instead of the high efficiency player offensive player that his college stats might suggest.
Ball shines in his ability to affect the game in multiple ways with scoring. At 6-6, he has the size and defensive versatility to guard multiple positions and though his athletic tools will likely hold him back from being a lock down defender against an position, that versatility is a valueable commodity in today's NBA. Ball is active defensively, particularly off the ball, and has a inherent ability to be disruptive in passing lanes with quick hands and tremendous instincts. He also uses his size well as a deterrent to shooters, averaging 1.4 blocks per 100. He may never be a shutdown defender, but Ball has the versatility and disruptive ability to be an overall plus on that end
Though he is point guard, Ball is also excellent off the ball, adept at cutting and finding open spaces to receive the ball. Despite the awkwardness of his jumper, Ball is still effective shooting when he is open, which is crucial when playing without the ball.
As a passer, Ball is obviously quite gifted, especially in transition when pushing the ball with his eyes up searching for the open man. While he isn't the quickest player, Ball is deadly when breaking down the defense because of his vision, instincts, and IQ. However, there is some question as to how easily he will be able to penetrate without UCLA excellent spacing and whether he can be able to break down defenders off the dribble when the floor closes up in the halfcourt.
UCLA, which has four excellent guards, doesn't always need Ball to be a dominant creator and can attack matchups accordingly. Workouts will be key to show whether or not Ball can be counted on to break down defenses at a high enough level to utilize his vision and passing in the halfcourt. He might benefit playing with another creator, for instance Boston could be drafting in the range where Ball would likely be selected and he could play as a co-creator role with Isaiah Thomas but without being asked to be the one and only creator on the floor.
Though there are some questions about his jumper and ability to get into the lane, Ball is still an excellent prospect because of his high level of intelligence and the way he can affect the game not with and without the ball.
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Wednesday, June 29, 2016
5 Potential Bargain Free Agents
There is likely going to be crazy money thrown around the NBA world starting July 1st, but that doesn't mean that there still won't be some bargains on the market. Here is a starting five of potential bargain contracts that could turn into consistent contributors...
Zeller was excellent during the 2014-15 season, but fell out of the rotation the next season and is now entering restricted free agency with a real chance of moving teams, especially since the Celtics appear to be targeting the likes of Dwight Howard. In 2014-15, Zeller played in all 82 games and averaged 17.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per 36 minutes, shooting .549% from the field and .823% from the line. Zeller's best attributes are his ability to run the floor and be a high efficiency finisher in the pick-and-roll. He probably isn't good enough defensively to be a full-time starter, but could be a high usage backup helping to anchor the offense of a uptempo, pick-and-roll heavy second unit. Brooklyn, Utah, Indiana, Charlotte, Washington, Dallas, Houston, and New Orleans are in need of depth at center and could look to Zeller as an affordable option with some upside.
PF: Jon Leuer, Phoenix Suns, Age: 27
Leuer doesn't look like an effective NBA player, and especially not an above-average defensive player (and not just because he is white) but in fact that is just what he is. Last season, Leuer played in 67 games and averaged 16.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists per 36 minutes and is a career .479/.375/.718 shooter. Even more impressive, Leuer has graded out as a plus defensively, despite the fact that he played in a train wreck of a team in Phoenix last season. He might not be a starting level player, but Leuer can be an integral part of an effective second unit. Leuer will basically be on a bargain basement contract and could fit any team that needs a little bit of shooting and solid defense from the big man spots.
SF: Dorell Wright, Miami Heat, Age: 30
Believe it or not, it has been 12 years since Dorell Wright entered the NBA and he has bounced around the league, including a year in China, but is still just 30 years old and can be a contributor as a shooter off the bench that has some defensive flexibility. For his career, Wright is a .365% shooter and while not a traditional wing stopper, is at least an average defender with the size at 6-9 to work in a switching style of defense. Wright could be signable for as low as the veteran minimum and be a shooter off the bench with at least average defense. There can never be too much shooting in the league, especially from the wings and every team in the NBA could use more. Wright may be limited offensively, but the skill he offers at the likely price is enough for any team.
SG: E'Twuan Moore, Chicago Bulls, Age: 27
Like all the players on this list, "solid" is the best way to describe Moore, he doesn't have a ton of upside but is good enough to be a versatile, impactful bench player. Moore is a combo guard that can play a little point but is probably best suited as an off guard that can function as a secondary creator. Moore is a career .369% three-point shooter and an average to above-average defensive player at both guard spots. Again, nothing flashy but Moore is a depth piece that can provide consistent guard play off the bench in a league that has fewer better than average guards than you might expect. Chicago shouldn't let Moore go, but teams like New York, Sacramento, Brooklyn, Orlando, Washington, Dallas, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Detroit, Houston, New Orleans, and many more could look to shore up their depth with a player like Moore, that is how broad his appeal is.
PG: Jerryd Bayless, Milwaukee Bucks, Age: 27
Bayless is a known commodity for the most part, a scoring combo guard that has never quite performed up to his talent but has quietly been a good backup because of his shot creation skills. Even more quietly has been the improvement of his jumper, which was once seen as a weakness but is now a weapon, to the point he shot .437% from three last season. While he is sure to regress from that number, there is no reason he can't settle in as an above-average shooter with the ability to break down defenses and beef up the scoring off of the bench of team that maybe has another distributor at a non-point guard position for an inexpensive price.
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