2017 NBA Draft: Top 30 Rankings

While there are still a few draft decisions to be made, for the most part the potential first round draft picks are in the draft for sure. These rankings are based on my own evaluations of the players and not what I thing the consensus is in the NBA or draft circles. I place a lot of emphasis in my rankings on how players fit in the modern NBA and what role they will play. For example, I rank Jonathan Isaac higher than most because I believe his style of defense is the key to slowing down modern offenses, while I am lower on Jayson Tatum because I am not sure the way he plays offense fits in the modern NBA very well. I also have Dennis Smith ahead of De'Aaron Fox because I have more faith in his shooting, which is just enough to push one prospect ahead of the other when they are even (though different) in the rest of their games. Just because I rank a player lower than consensus does not mean I hate that player or think they will be a bust, it simply means I like the players ranked ahead of them more. 

01. Markelle Fultz, PG Washington (6-4, 195) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Fultz is best as a lead guard but can function off the ball due to his shooting ability. He should break down defenses consistently and score consistently from all over the floor, while also distributing the ball to teammates. Defensively, he has the tools but not the effort. Needs other good perimeter defenders around him.

02. Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State (6-10, 210) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Isaac is an ideal defender against modern NBA offenses because he can defend on the perimeter like a wing but also protect the rim like a big, mitigating modern strategies that take want to put defenders in places they are uncomfortable. Right now, Isaac is a spot up shooter and off ball cutter, and if that is all he is he will still be valuable, but there is a chance he can be more.

03. Lonzo Ball, PG UCLA (6-6, 190) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Ball is an intelligent guard that can play on or off the ball with ease. Tremendous vision and passing ability, excellent open court offense player, despite a funky release that limits some of his shooting options, it still goes in when he takes it from the right spots. Size helps with defensive versatility, though he hasn't been particular effective as a defender on a consistent basis. Would be best suited to playing with another guard that can defend and a team that would like to play up tempo.

04. Dennis Smith Jr, PG North Carolina State (6-3, 195) Age: 19

Where He Fits: A very athletic player, Smith is quick, fast, and a high leaper that should be able to consistently break down defenses and get to the rim. A good passer and three-point shooter that projects as a lead guard. Inconsistent effort and need of polish but a chance to be really good when locked in. Best suited to a pick-and-roll heavy team that allows him to handle the ball alot.

05. Josh Jackson, SG/SF Kansas (6-7, 209) Age: 20

Where He Fits: Versatile, productive perimeter defender (2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks per 40 minutes), high motor player that hits the glass (9.6 rebounds per 40), scores at the rim (.429% of his offense at the rim on 69% shooting) and passes the ball (3.9 assists per 40). Fills in the gaps on both offense and defense. Needs other shooters around him.

06. De'Aaron Fox, PG Kentucky (6-3¼, 170) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Fox is a tall, wiry point guard with a game that would fit in a couple years ago but nowadays is taboo, due to his lack of a three point shot so far. Fox does so much else well, including getting to the rim with ease (a whooping .481% of his shots were at the rim last season), playmaking for others, and excellent defense. Unless/until Fox finds his footing as a shooter, he will need some threats from that range around him, preferable a pick-and-roll partner that can shoot the ball.

07. Jayson Tatum, SF/PF Duke (6-8, 205) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Big wing that excels at exploiting mismatches. Bully post up scorer against smaller defenders and mid-range artist against bigger. Questionable efficiency but ability to consistently create a shot ala DeMar DeRozan. Solid defender, but lacking in upside due to so-so tools. Can play some four but not full time due to lack of length and strength. Will need a supporting cast that can give him room to operate. 

08. Frank Ntilikina, PG Strasbourg (6-5, 170) Age: 18

Where He Fits: Ntilikina is a big, long guard with excellent defensive potential, three point range, and developing creation skills. Needs polish as a point guard and may never be a ball-dominant number one playmaker, similar to Patrick Beverly but with more creation ability. Will be best suited alongside another playmaker that can take the pressure off. Would be good playing uptempo with a lot of pick and rolls.

09. Malik Monk, SG Kentucky (6-3, 200) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Streakiest of the streaky shooters, can easily make a 8 threes in a game or miss 8. Quick first step and polished stepback allow easy creation of threes. Monk has shown the ability to create for others and be devastating in transition, when he wants to (which isn't often enough). Great athlete but small and short-armed, best suited to defending point guards. Needs a big guard next to him as well as a primary creator.

10. Lauri Markkanen, PF/C Arizona (7-0, 230) Age: 20

Where He Fits: Elite shooter for any size, let along 7-plus feet. Can shoot off of screens, pin-downs, or pick-and-pop. Good finishing numbers (.695% at the rim) despite mediocre athletic ability and length, smart player and good passer, though passive occasionally. Markkanen is not a completely lost cause defending on the move but not good either, and is a poor rim protector that will need to work to become average on that end.

11. Zach Collins, C Gonzaga (7-0, 232) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Collins is a mobile big man with a lot of untapped potential, mostly due to the fact he only player 17.3 minutes per game, however his per 40 numbers show the kind of impact he can have: 23.2 points, 13.6 rebounds, and 4.1 blocks per game. Collins has also shown excellent touch away from the basket (.556% on two point jumpers, .476 on 21 three point attempts). Unfortunately Collins also averaged 6.2 fouls per 40, which is indicative of the fact that he may have some growing pains and shouldn't be thrust into high minutes right away. 

12. Jarrett Allen, C Texas (6-10¼, 234) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Allen is a big man with long arms (7-5¼ wingpsan) and excellent athletic ability for his size. Not a finished product but excellent at the rim (.711%) and has shown touch outside the paint (.477% on two point jumpers). Physical tools to be a very good rebounder and defensive player. Played his best against the toughest competition. Allen will need someone to create shots for him (which he lacked at Texas) and time to develop his body and skill, but he has the chance to be a very good player.

13. Jawun Evans, PG Oklahoma State (5-11½, 185) Age: 20

Where He Fits: Top level pick-and-roll player at the college level, excellent at finding teammates and making the correct decision (though he can get wild at times). Very good shooter (.407 for his career) and pesky defender (2.4 steals per 40) though doesn't have the size to be elite on that end. Evans is also a poor finisher that is best suited to a pick and roll heavy team with a lot of spacing to help him at the rim, in the same way Kemba Walker's finishing improved when defenders were drawn away from the rim.

14. Justin Jackson, SF North Carolina (6-8¼, 201) Age: 22

Where He Fits: Gap filler on the offensive end. Great cutter and off ball player that reworked his jump shot to become a legitimate threat from deep. Jackson is a good ball handler and passer for a wing but isn't a top scoring or distributing option. Good defensive tools but so-so results, needs to improve his balance and get stronger on defense. High level role player.

15. Donovan Mitchell, SG Louisville (6-3, 211) Age: 20

Where He Fits: Mitchell is a short, powerfully built combo guard with tremendous physical tools (6-10 wingspan, 40½ vertical leap). A slasher that has developed his three point shot into his first option, solid playmaker but definitely not a lead guard despite his size. Despite the tools, he is an inconsistent defender that will likely need to guard bigger players unless he ends up on a team where the primary initiator is not the point guard.

16. Terrence Ferguson, SG Adelaide (6-7, 184) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Big off guard that can shoot the ball and defend. Excellent athlete finishing around the rim and running in the open court, but lacking much in the way of creation skills. A 3-and-D role player at this stage that shouldn't be counted on for more than that.

17. John Collins, PF/C Wake Forest (6-9½, 225) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Hyper-active, super athletic player somewhat stuck between the 4 and the 5. Collins was incredibly productive in college and is a rebounding (14.8 per 40) and finishing machine (.747% at the rim on a whopping 221 attempts) that outworks opponents. Not a natural defender that lacks elite length and doesn't have the range to play power forward and may struggle to play center. Best suited as a second unit player that can feast on backups.

18. Justin Patton, C Creighton (6-11¼, 229) Age: 19

Where He Fits: A project big man with a nice package of tools including soft hands and coordination, good length, and nice touch at and away from the basket. Patton isn't ready to contribute now but as he gets stronger and learns to harness those tools into consistent play, he could be a nice two-way big man that provides solid all around production.

19. OG Anunoby, SF/PF Indiana (6-7¾, 232) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Elite defensive prospect with long arms (7-2¼) and excellent athletic ability, can guard 1-4 now and even all five positions down the line. Basically a zero on offense at this point, will need to improve his three point shot become more instinctive a cutter and off-ball player. 

20. Tyler Lydon, PF Syracuse (6-9½, 215) Age: 21

Where He Fits: Lydon has the coveted combination of three point shooting (.398 career mark) and shot blocking (2 per 40). He has also shown the ability to attack closeouts at a power forward's size. Due to Syracuse's zone it is uncertain how he will do in man-to-man defense.

21. Ike Anigbogu, C UCLA (6-9¾, 252) Age: 18

Where He Fits: Gigantic man-child with tremendous strength and length, an NBA body. Will need a lot of seasoning to become a consistent contributor. No range outside the immediate basket area. Tools to be an awesome defender and rebounder but needs polish in those areas. High upside project.

22. Rodions Kurucs, SF Barcelona 2 (6-8, 190) Age: 19

Where He Fits: A slashing wing from Latvia, Kurucs probably won't come to the NBA right away but has the potential to be a solid contributor due to attacking style and a jumper that, while inconsistent, looks to develop into a weapon.

23. Semi Ojeleye, SF/PF SMU (6-6¾, 241) Age: 22

Where He Fits: A role player. Ojeleye is a chiseled combo forward with a jack-of-all-trades style of play. Potential as a small-ball four that can space the floor (.415% career shooter from three) and be effective as a switching defender. 

24. Luke Kennard, SG Duke (6-5½, 196) Age: 20

Where He Fits: A knockdown three point shooter that isn't lost creating with the ball in his hands. A crafty player that knowns how to ge,t to his spots and keep the ball moving if need be. Poor physical tools and likely to struggle as a defensive player. Kennard has a role as a three point specialist that can do a little more than the average at that position.

25. Ivan Rabb, PF/C California (6-10, 220) Age: 20

Where He Fits: Solid all-around big man that projects as a backup big that can do a little bit of everything. Rabb has shown some touch with his jump shot and can destroy smaller players in the post. He is a little bit stuck between the big man spots however and will need to either get stronger or more skilled to start at either.

26. TJ Leaf, PF UCLA (6-9¾, 222) Age: 20

Where He Fits: Leaf is a modern stretch four that really shot the ball well last season (.466% on 58 attempts) and can put the ball on the floor some. Completely lost on the defense end and will need to put in a lot of work to become competent in that area. A role player at this point, but one with a fair amount of upside. 

27. Jonathan Jeanne, C Le Mans (7-2, 207) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Painfully skinny, long armed (7-6½) big man with surprising three point touch. Needs to add a lot of strength and a lot of seasoning to be an NBA contributor but you cannot teach the length he has. Chances are slim, but Rudy Gobert with a three point shot is an extremely tantalizing prospect for any team, even if it is unlikely.

28. Isaiah Hartenstein, C Zalgiris (7-0, 225) Age: 19

Where He Fits: Skilled big man with a nice frame that teams might imagine could be the next Nikola Jokic. Not NBA ready at this point and will need time to develop, but he has the size, touch, and passing ability that modern NBA centers need.

29. Jordan Bell, PF/C Oregon (6-8½, 224) Age: 22

Where He Fits: Excellent, mobile defender that can guard on the perimeter, protect the rim, play the passing lanes, and cover a lot of ground. Mostly just a finisher at this point, Bell has shown some decent mid-range touch and will need to grow that at the NBA level. Best suited playing next to a stretch big that can make up for his lack of range.

30. Josh Hart, SG Villanova (6-5, 209) Age: 22

Where He Fits: Malcolm Brogdon 2.0, an experienced college player that knows what he is and plays to his strengths as a shooter, defender, and playmaker. Ready to come in from day one and play a role, though he may never advance beyond that role.

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Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable draft information used in this post.

2017 NBA Draft Rankings: Top 35 (2/23)

The NCAA and NBA regular seasons are slowly winding down so NBA teams out of the playoff race will start to turn their eyes towards the draft, as will their fans looking for hope in the future. Here's a look a 35 prospects that could hear their name called on draft night and perhaps turn around a Franchise if everything goes right. Measurements are college team listed and age is on draft night.

01. Markelle Fultz, PG/SG Washington (6-4, 195) Age: 19
After ascending to the top spot early in the year, Fultz has done nothing to lose a firm grasp on the top of prospect boards. Yes, his team is really bad but that doesn't matter when it comes to evaluation, he is just a cut above in terms of talent from the rest of this class. A clear number one in my mind.

02. Josh Jackson, SF/PF Kansas (6-8, 207) Age: 20
After Fultz, there are a number of players in the running for #2, but none match Josh Jackson's production, potential, and positional value. Jackson defense has been as good as expected, but it is his improved passing and 3-point shooting that have been most impressive. He still has a some rough edges to refine (consistency as a shooter, turnovers as a playmaker) but Jackson has a pretty impressive package of skills and plays one of the most sought-after positions in the league on the wing.

03. Jonathan Isaac, SF/PF Florida State (6-10, 210) Age: 19
Much that can be said about Jackson can also be said about Isaac. He isn't the same explosive level of player, but he is bigger and longer, to the point that he could possibly player center down the line. Know how many 6-10/11 players in the NBA have had a season where they have averaged 1.5 blocks per game, 1 steal per game, shot 61% from 2 and 36% from 3? Zero. Those are Isaac's stats through 25 games this season.

04. Dennis Smith Jr, PG North Carolina State (6-3, 195) Age: 19
After a slow start coming off a knee injury, Dennis Smith has found his stride and been the dynamic player he was pre-injury. North Carolina State has been a mess this season and Smith has certainly not been without fault, however Smith has still be incredibly productive and efficient. There are few more explosive point guards in College or NBA than Smith and it is easy to see just how much potential he has, with his current package pretty good right now. Think young Eric Bledsoe athleticism with older Bledsoe skills.

05. Lonzo Ball, PG UCLA (6-6, 190) Age: 19
Ball could easily be drafted second overall and it would be hard to argue with the choice. Ball is one of the most instinct and natural basketball players I have ever seen, he knows how to make the right play on both ends and does so much to help his team win. There are real concerns about his ability to create his own shot and penetrate defenses, but those are minor quibbles when compared to all he can do.

06. Jayson Tatum, SF/PF Duke (6-8, 205) Age: 19
Tatum has had a rollercoaster season, starting out hot before struggling in the middle of the season then bouncing back lately. There is no doubt that Tatum knows how to score, in the classic wing way of creating space for his mid-range shot. Though not a special athlete, Tatum will flash explosiveness and has good potential as a defender of multiple positions. The question isn't whether Tatum will score, it is if he can score efficiently as as part of a team concept, as he can become too mid-range/iso-heavy at times.

07. Frank Ntilikina, PG Strasbourg [FRA] (6-5, 170) Age: 18
Ntilikina has been out of sight, out of mind for the most of the season but he is one of the more intriguing prospects in this draft because of his size (6-5 plus with great length) and pure point guard ability. Ntilikina is an excellent pick-and-roll player who can also make shots off the dribble and make the correct plays. With his size and length, Ntilikina has the potential to be a really good defender of multiple positions. Like Ball, he isn't a sudden or super-quick athlete but Ntilikina is smooth and heady enough to create the separation needed.

08. Malik Monk, SG Kentucky (6-3, 200) Age: 19
Monk has been one of the most electric players this season but also one of the most frustrating. Basically, Monk can carry his team to victory if his shot is falling but provides very little when it isn't. Despite shooting .409% from three so far this season, Monk has shot less than 35% from three 15 times but more than 50% 11 times; basically he is really hot or cold most of the time. Beyond that, he doesn't pass the ball or get the rim well and is just so-so as a defender, especially considering his below average size and length for an off-guard. But again, he is an electric player that with consistency could be a really valuable scorer, one that can get his shot off no matter.

09. Lauri Markkanen, PF/C Arizona (7-0, 230) Age: 19
Markkanen has put together a special season shooting the ball, through 28 games he's nailed a blistering .457% on 4.6 attempts a game, a feat achieved only seventeen times in NBA history, and none of those players are anywhere close to seven feet tall. Obviously there are questions about his ability to defend and rebound, to do typical big man things, however even if he just reaches average levels in those areas, his shooting ability will make him a star.

10. Robert Williams, PF/C Texas A&M (6-9, 237) Age: 19
Williams has truly been one of the most impressive Freshmen this season and as such, he has seen his stock rise from second round to lottery accordingly. It's not hard to see why, Williams has an impressive build and athletic ability, with a long 7-4+ wingspan and a reach that makes playing center a real option for Williams. Add to that his incredible quick bounce, fluidity, and a surprisingly nice looking jumper and you can really dream on Williams potential, with a Myles Turner-like upside.

11. De'Aaron Fox, PG Kentucky (6-3, 187) Age: 19
While his teammate Malik Monk has been mercurial, Fox has been a much more steady contributor. What Fox is, is a tremendous defender and passer with the quickness to breakdown defenses and the vision to be a really good playmaker. However, Fox is also shooting .173% on threes and .311% on two-point jumpers, which is going to hold him back to Ricky Rubio level contribution until that improves (which, by the way, is not a bad outcome for a lottery pick).

12. Miles Bridges, SF/PF Michigan State (6-7, 230) Age: 19
Bridges will likely suffer from unfair comparisons to another undersized, strong forward from Michigan State (no, not Branden Dawson) but Bridges is a different type of player. Bridges is a tremendous, strong and explosive athlete capable of a multitude of highlight finishes well above the rim while also making .406% from three on 4.8 attempts per game. While that may oversell his true shooting ability somewhat, the fact that he can make a respectable percentage of threes while also being a such a threat finishing at that basket and providing defensive versatility makes Bridges a potentially valuable contributor.

13. Terrance Ferguson, SG/SF Adelaide [AUS] (6-7, 186) Age: 19
The big time recruit has been, like Ntilikina, out of sight out of mind playing overseas for a year before entering the NBA draft. Ferguson is a top level athlete with great size for a two guard and at least the length if not the bulk quite yet to play the three. Ferguson's shooting and defense should seamlessly fit into the NBA as a role player, and as a young guy with his athleticism there isn't a lack of upside for more. Think Terrence Ross with better defense and potential for more of and off the bounce game.

14. Justin Patton, C Creighton (6-11, 215) Age: 20
Patton came out of nowhere for Creighton, rising from unknown to potential lottery pick over the course of the season. Patton oozes potential just looking at him, with long arms and the kind of frame you can see filling out nicely. He runs the floor hard and has great hands and footwork, allowing him to convert around the basket at a ridiculous .817% shooting around the rim, a not insignificant number considering he does post up and isn't just a lob finisher. Patton has even shown some nice touch shooting the ball, though his poor free throw shooting numbers call that into question. Patton is more a collection of tools and skills than a finish product at this point, but oh boy are those skills impressive.

15. John Collins, PF/C Wake Forest (6-10, 218) Age: 19
One of the most productive players this season, John Collins is averaging a ridiculous 41 points and 20.8 rebounds per 100 possessions so far this season. Collins is the definition of bouncy and active, using his length and athleticism to finish at the rim, grab rebounds and block shots. Collins needs some refinement, he is still learning the intricacies of offense and defense, and there is some question of his feel, but even as a better rebounding Brandon Wright-type backup big man, Collins has some real value.

16. Jarrett Allen, C Texas (6-11, 235) Age: 19
Allen has flown under the radar this season, however for a freshman center, he has been very good, playing heavy minutes and being productive. Allen is far from a finished product, but prospects with his size, length (7-5+ wingspan), and athletic ability don't come along every day. Allen has shown nice touch on his jumper out to mid-range and it's not hard to dream on what he could become if that develops. Great hair too.

17. Ivan Rabb, PF/C California (6-11, 220) Age: 20
If you are looking for a solid all-around contributor as a backup big man, look no further than Rabb. Rabb has shown that he can score in the post, shoot it a little from the outside, and finish lobs at the rim while also posting strong rebounding numbers and being at least an average rim protector. Unless Rabb can really grow as a three-point shooter, his best role is probably as a backup center, where his lack of strength won't hurt as much but he won't have to defend on the perimeter (a weakness) like he would as a power forward.

18. Tyler Lydon, PF Syracuse  (6-8, 205) Age: 21
After a slow start, Tyler Lydon is all of a sudden shooting .415% from three and playing very well. Lydon isn't a potential star, but neither is he just a role player at the next level either. Power forwards that can make threes at an above-average rate, block shots, and attack close-outs don't grow on trees and those are all things that Lydon can do. He needs to get stronger and there are always the Syracuse/Zone questions, but the potential for what Lydon can bring is worth that risk.

19. Harry Giles, PF/C Duke (6-10, 240) Age: 19
What to do with Harry Giles? Pre-multiple knee injuries he was a top 5 pick at worst, now? He's averaging 11.9 minutes a game and looks tentative, lacking explosiveness and agility. Is he just working off the rust or is there long-term damage? Giles could declare and certainly be drafted in the first round (provided medical checks out) or return for another year at Duke and potentially be launched back in the top pick conversation, but also risk being permanently labeled damaged goods. Only time will tell what the correct decision is, hopefully whatever the outcome it involves Giles getting back to full strength.

20. OG Anunoby, SF/PF Indiana (6-8, 215) Age: 19
Anunoby is in a tough spot, after being considered in the top ten early in the year, his shooting slumped and then he injured his knee and is out for the rest of the season. He could still declare for the draft and would certainly be a first rounder, providing his knee is okay long term, However, like Giles, if Anunoby returns next year, improves his shooting while keeping up the elite level of defense, he could easily be a top ten pick but risk falling even further if he shows again his jumper hasn't develop as hoped. Anunoby is a tremendous defensive player who has shown he can score around the rim efficiently, however similarly to Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, his upside will be determined how well his jumper improves.

21. Mikal Bridges, SF Villanova (6-7, 200) Age: 20
Try not to over think this, a wing with a 7-0+ wingspan, super athletic ability, who is shooting .402% from three, .716%(!) from two point range, and .913% from the line. A potential super efficient two-way wing player, sign me up.

22. Isaiah Hartenstein, PF/C Zalgris [LITH] (7-0, 225) Age: 19
Similarly to Jusef Nurkic and to a lesser extent (at least skill wise) DeMarcus Cousins, Isaiah Hartenstein is a massive, skilled big man with some serious on-court attitude issues (which DraftExpress break down here). Hartenstein's skill level is high though, he can handle, pass, and shoot.

23. Justin Jackson, SF North Carolina (6-8, 193) Age: 22
Before shooting .396% on threes this season (197 attempts), Justin Jackson shot .297% (212 attempts), so there is a fair chance he shooting regresses as a near 22-year old. However, Jackson is a very smart player and that should serve him well as a ball-mover, cutter, and team defender. If the shooting is a for real, Jackson has an Otto Porter type upside.

24. Zach Collins, PF Gonzaga (6-10, 215) Age: 19
Collins is playing really well on a deep Gonzaga team and probably more of a 2018 prospect, however if he were to declare I think his combination of skill and athletic ability would be worthy of a first round pick, but he could go even higher in 2018.

25. Johnathan Motley, PF/C Baylor (6-9, 230) Age: 22
A somewhat skilled, athletic big man with center measurements, Motley looks like a solid bet as a backup big man that can contribute on defense and the glass while also not being completely lost of on offense, finishing strong and knocking down jumpers.

26. Donovan Mitchell, SG Louisville (6-3, 210) Age: 20
Stepping into a bigger role as a Sophomore, Donovan Mitchell has shown toughness as a driver, some playmaking skills, great defense, and he has really improved his jumper. He's an undersized two, likely to be relegated to a bench role, but he could be effective there.

27. Luke Kennard, SG Duke (6-5, 180) Age: 20
Despite playing with much more hyped players, Kennard has easily been Duke's best player this season and projects to a be a solid backup shooter in the NBA. Kennard is a knockdown shooter with tremendous smarts and a crafty off the dribble game.

28. Shake Milton, PG/SG SMU (6-5, 195) Age: 20
Milton is an ideal backup guard, one that can guard multiple positions, make plays off the dribble and shoot. He is a jack-of-all-trades type that can fill in at both guards spots and work in a multitude of different lineups, Milton isn't without upside either, as he is only 20 years old and has improved over the course of his career thus far.

29. T.J. Leaf, PF UCLA (6-10, 225) Age: 20
Like Collins, Leaf might be more of a 2018 prospect, though it is still very possible he declares for this draft. Leaf has shot the ball well from three this season (on low volume) but his real strength is his activity on the glass and skill with the ball, though it is important to remember that UCLA has amazing spacing and many capable guards to get him the ball. Right now Leaf is a negative defensively and his mediocre measurables will make journey to positive impact an uphill one.

30. Josh Hart, SG Villanova (6-5, 205) Age: 22
An All-American and National Champion, there isn't much more for Josh Hart to achieve in college, though that hasn't stopped his game from growing. Hart has become a much better passer and playmaker this year. Hart is essentially Malcolm Brogdon 2.0, a low upside guard that can shoot, make some plays, and defend, despite so-so physical gifts.

31. Caleb Swanigan, PF/C Purdue (6-9, 260) Age: 20
In some eyes, Swanigan is the favorite for National Player of the Year, so that gives you some sense of his production so far this season. Swanigan is a below the rim center with measurables and game eerily similar to Jared Sullinger. He is a high volume rebounder and post scorer with some range on his jumper, but also unathletic and slow-footed with serious question marks defensively.

32. Rodions Kurucs, Barcelona B [ESP] (6-8, 190) Age: 19
Kurucs is a one of the new breed of Euro prospects, an athletic slashing wing that loves to attack the basket. He needs to improve his defense and shooting, but down the line a team could reap the rewards of a patient development.

33. Dwayne Bacon, SF Florida State (6-7, 210) Age: 21
Besides a tasty name, Dwayne Bacon has the kind of strength that modern NBA wings need to work in switch heavy offenses. Add to that a decent off the bounce game with an improved jumper and Bacon has some potential as a solid backup two-way wing.

34. Bruce Brown, PG Miami (6-3, 200) Age: 20
Brown has the athletic profile you look for in an NBA point guard, though he will likely need some seasoning in terms of learning to run an offense and become a truly consistent shooter, particularly off the dribble. Brown seems like a perfect candidate for one of the new "two-way" contract that would allow him to develop in the D-League for a year or so before stepping in as a backup point guard.

35. Edrice "Bam" Adebayo, C Kentucky (6-10, 260) Age: 19
A couple years ago, Adebayo would be much more highly regarded when it comes to the NBA, but nowadays it's hard to find much more than a reserve role for him. He's huge and athletic, really good at finishing at the rim and sets solid screens, but... beyond that he has no range and is just and okay defender and rebounder. In the one-and-done atmosphere of Kentucky it'll be hard for Adebayo to return to school and work on his game, but it would probably be the best move.

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Hoop-math.com draftexpress.com & sports-reference.com/cbb/ are all feature invaluable draft information used in this post.

2014 NBA Draft Top 40 Rankings

Tier 1: High-Ceiling Game Changers

1. Joel Embiid, C Kansas Fr. (7-1, 265)

What Works Now

Size, fluidity, and athleticism. Embiid has burgeoning offensive ability and plays top level defense. He has the potential to be a dominant player on both ends of the court who averages 20 and 10 with All-NBA defense.

What Doesn't

Possibly his back, which obviously would have a huge impact on his career. 

2. Andrew Wiggins, SF Kansas Fr. (6-9, 200)

What Works Now

Top level physical gifts, including an mind-bending first step. Special scoring ability in transition and off the dribble, very good shooting stroke with improving consistency. DPOY potential with excellent present ability in that area.

What Doesn't

Strength handling the ball, overall polish and consistency.

3. Dante Exum, G Australia (6-6, 196)

What Works Now

Tall, athletic guard with long arms and quickness. Excellent playmaking and ball-handling skills with natural ability to create for himself and others. Ceiling is a top 5 point guard with great defense, floor is a skilled shooting guard with average defense.

What Doesn't

Consistent shooting. Polish and experience running an offense.

Tier 2: High-Floor Game Changers

4. Jabari Parker, F Duke Fr. (6-9, 235)

What Works Now
Offense. Parker can score all over the floor, in the post, from deep, as well as handle the ball and pass. A potential efficient 25+ point scorer in his prime.

What Doesn't
Defense. Parker can struggle moving laterally and vertically and, most troubling of all, gives poor effort defensively. 

5. Julius Randle, PF Kentucky Fr. (6-9, 250)

What Works Now

High-effort, physical post scorer that can command double teams. Also and excellent rebounder and foul magnet. Has shown the ability to shoot the ball from the outside as well. Potential 20-10 power forward.

What Doesn't

Ability to score against top size and length and consistent shooting stroke. Likely won't be much more than an average defensive player.

Tier 3: Early Starters (Who Could Become Game Changers)

6. Noah Vonleh, PF Indiana Fr. (6-10, 247)

What Works Now

Physical tools, toughness, motor, rebounding, defense and burgeoning offensive abilities. Vonleh's best offensive weapon is his jumpshot, which really improved throughout the season. 

What Doesn't

Vonleh needs to improve and polish his ability to score inside and overall just gain experience. Short track record of consistent shooting. Despite apparent offensive ability, wasn't a big time scorer in college on a team that needed offense.

7. Aaron Gordon, PF Arizona Fr. (6-9, 220)

What Works Now

Defense. Gordon has the physical ability as well the toughness, motor, and instincts to be an special defensive player capable of guarding both wings and big. Athleticism and instincts to make an impact on the glass, passing the ball, and in the open court. Plays smart and very hard.

What Doesn't

Offense. Outside of dunks and lobs, not much of a threat to score. Shot needs serious work, including free throws. Needs a consistent move in the post. 

8. Marcus Smart, G Oklahoma State So. (6-3, 227)

What Works Now

Intensity on both ends of the court. Smart is an excellent defender who uses his instincts and athletic ability to block shots, create turnovers, draw fouls, and rebound. He is at his best when he aggressively attacks the basket.

What Doesn't

Smart isn't a natural point guard and may take some time to learn the nuances of the position. He also is not a good shooter who likes to shoot. 

9. Dario Saric, F Croatia (6-10, 223)
What Works Now

Instincts, versatility and intelligence. Saric is able to handle the ball and pass like a point guard despite being the size of a power forward. He is also an excellent rebound and improving shooter.

What Doesn't

Saric still isn't a consistent shooter and he lacks the physical ability to be much more than an average defensive player. 

Tier 4: Early Starters

10. Elfrid Payton, PG Louisiana-Lafayette Jr. (6-4, 185)

What Works Now

Aggressiveness, quickness, and defense. Payton is one of the best in this draft at attacking the rim and drawing fouls. He is also capable of running an offense and finding teammates. One of the best perimeter defenders in the draft.

What Doesn't

His jumpshot. Will likely always be more of a scorer than a pure point guard.

11. Nik Stauskas, SG Michigan So. (6-7, 207)

What Works Now

Stauskas' jumpshot and playmaking ability. He is the best shooter in the draft with a quick release and long range. Has the ball handling and passing ability to be at least a part time point guard.

What Doesn't

Due to limited athleticism and short arms, he will likely struggle defensively and may not be able to create off the dribble quick as easily in the NBA.

12. Gary Harris, SG Michigan State So. (6-5, 205)

What Works Now

Offensive and defensive versatility. Harris is a threat to score from the outside or on the drive and can guard multiple positions on the perimeter. 

What Doesn't

His jumpshot is inconsistent and he isn't overwhelming in any area.

13. Jusuf Nurkic, C Bosnia (6-11, 280)

What Works Now

Great size, strength, hands, and touch. Nurkic is huge and has natural post scoring ability with improving polish on his skillset. He should be a force on the glass as well.

What Doesn't

Nurkic has struggled with conditioning and isn't a great athlete, which may affect areas of his defense.

Tier 5: Early Contributors

14. Kristaps Porzingis, C Latvia (6-11, 220)

What Works Now

Athleticism, mobility, and a burgeoning offensive skillset. Porzingis, who is only 18, has a nice perimeter game and can block shots and rebound. He has great IQ and instincts on both ends of the court

What Doesn't

He needs to add a lot of strength and is not physically ready to battle in the paint in the NBA right now. There is some inherent risk due to his age and reliance on jumpshots.

15. Doug McDermott, F Creighton Sr. (6-8, 218)

What Works Now

McDermott is an outstanding shooter, one of the best in the draft, as well as having great scoring instincts and a high IQ, as well as being an above-average rebounder.

What Doesn't

A lack NBA level physical ability may bring about some struggles versus athletic defenders and limit his defensive impact significantly. In college he blocked 14 shots and got 34 steals in 4,570 career minutes!

16. Tyler Ennis, PG Syracuse Fr. (6-3, 182)

What Works Now

Well-rounded, steady point guard play. Ennis is a very good ball-handler, passer, and plays under control at any speed, limiting turnovers. He also have some scoring and shooting acumen.

What Doesn't

Ennis may struggle defensively and isn't a great finisher at the rim right now. Also just an average shooter at this point.

17. T.J. Warren, F North Carolina State So. (6-8, 220)

What Works Now

Warren is one of the most instinctive,  natural scorers in the draft. He finds ways to score in transition, off cuts, and in the paint.

What Doesn't

Though Warren scores well, he is not a good shooter, which may trouble some teams. That lack of shooting, plus a questionable defensive profile make him seem more like a bench option.

18. Adreian Payne, PF Michigan State Sr. (6-10, 239)

What Works Now

Instant impact on both ends of the floor. Payne is physically ready for the NBA and should provide the useful combination of interior defense and outside shooting.

What Doesn't

At 23, there is little upside left in Payne. Add to that he has been an underachiever in that past and doesn't always use his physical gifts to dominate, there is some risk here.

19. P.J. Hairston, SG NBDL (6-5, 229)

What Works Now

Shooting and upside. Right now his calling card is a sweet jumpshot, but Hairston also has the build of a power guard and can overpower opponents at the rim, with room to grow in this area.

What Doesn't

Perhaps his attitude. Hairston was dismissed from the North Carolina basketball team. He can also become a little one dimensional.

Tier 6: Quality Role-Players

20. Clint Capela, F/C Switzerland (6-11, 222)

What Works Now
Athleticism, length, defense, and rebounding. Capela has succeeded at a high level defensively playing professionally in France, and has the physical tools to become even better.

What Doesn't
Capela lacks above-average offensive instincts at this point and is a ways away from being able to contribute much on that end.

21. Cleanthony Early, SF Wichita State Sr. (6-7, 209)

What Works Now

Shooting and athleticism. Early has blossomed into quite the threat with his jumpshot and is also dangerous in transition.

What Doesn't

Upside. Early is 23 already. There are also questions about his ability to create his own shot.

22. Rodney Hood, G/F Duke So. (6-9, 208)

What Works Now

Shooting and size. With his great height and shooting ability, Hood will find a place in the league because he can get his shot off and it should go in quite a big,

What Doesn't

Hood lacks great athleticism and has short arms, which may lead to him struggling to defend. He also doesn't create well for himself off the dribble and is a one-dimensional scorer.

23. Mitch McGary, PF Michigan So. (6-10, 250)

What Works Now
Effort and unique skill. McGary isn't a great offensive threat, but he plays very hard, rebounds, plays frenetic help defense, and is a surprisingly good ball-handler and passer.

What Doesn't
Possibly his back. McGary missed most of last season with a serious back injury. Also, he has a short track record of success based on several college games and a high school resume built on beating up on younger opponents.

24. C.J. Wilcox SG Washington Sr. (6-5, 201)

What Works Now
Shooting and defense. Wilcox is a very good, consistent shooter who also has some other natural scoring instincts as well. He is a good athlete and committed defender who looks like he can be a 3-and-D wing. 

What Doesn't
Wilcox is turning 24 this year, limiting his upside. 

25. Shabazz Napier, PG Connecticut Sr. (6-1, 175)

What Works Now
Toughness, scoring, and versatility. Napier is a well rounded guard who can get his own shot, create for others, and rebound.

What Doesn't
He is undersized, even for a point guard, and may struggle physically on both ends, especially because he is more of a scorer that a pure point. Turing 23 this year.

26. Vasilije Micic, PG Croatia (6-6, 202)

What Works Now
Size and passing ability. Micic is a pure point guard who terrific court vision and passing ability, his height helps him see 

What Doesn't
Micic isn't an outstanding shooter or scorer, and though his size is an asset defensively, he can still struggle on that end.

27. Jerami Grant, F Syracuse So. (6-8, 214)

What Works Now

Defense, motor, and physical ability. Grant has tremendous length (7-3 wingspan) and is very explosive and mobile. He should be able to guard multiple positions, block shots, and create turnovers. Grant can also attack off the dribble and is obviously a great finisher.

What Doesn't

Right now Grant isn't all there offensively and needs to work on a consistent jumpshot and tighten up his handle. Even if he never develops much there, he can still be a Luc Richard Mbah a Moute-type. 

28. K.J. McDaniels, SF Clemson Jr. (6-6, 196)

What Works Now

See Jerami Grant.

What Doesn't

See Jerami Grant.

Tier 7: High-Risk, High-Reward

29. Spencer Dinwiddie, G Colorado Jr. (6-6, 205)

What Works Now

Size, versatility, and skill. When healthy, Dinwiddie is a tall, skilled combo guard who can handle the ball, slash, and shoot. He has also shown some ability as a playmaker who could play point guard at least part of the time. Also has a great mustache.

What Doesn't

Possibly his knee. Dinwiddie's season ended with a torn ACL, so there is definitely risk there, especially since he wasn't a top athlete before hand. If not for the injury, Dinwiddie would be 10-15 spots higher.

30. Zach LaVine, SG UCLA Fr. (6-6, 181)

What Works Now

Top notch athleticism, shooting, and upside. LaVine is an explosive athlete and a good, albeit somewhat streaky shooter. He also has some upside as a ball-handler and potential, though small, chance to be point guard.

What Doesn't

LaVine isn't a point guard right now, takes bad shots, and is a streaky shooter. He also doesn't make great use of his athleticism on either end of the court: 6 blocks in 904 minutes for a 6-6 player with a 41.5 inch vertical is embarrassing.  

31. James Young, G/F Kentucky Fr. (6-7, 213)

What Works Now
Smooth athleticism and offensive skills. At certain moments, Young looks tremendous; smooth and able to get his own shot and score from the outside. He even makes plays for teammates occasionally.

What Doesn't
Young's talents are surface level at this point and he is wildly inconsistent. He takes terrible shots, is streaky, and a poor defender mostly because the mental side of his game is lacking

32. Kyle Anderson, F UCLA So. (6-9, 230)

What Works Now
Offensive versatility. Anderson is a pure point guard in a power forward's body and has also really improved his shooting ability from deep and in the mid-range.

What Doesn't
His fit on many teams. Also, Anderson is a limited athlete who may struggle defensively and to get by defenders at the next level.

34. Artem Klimenko, C Russia (7-1, 228)

What Works Now
Size, defense, and upside. Klimenko is huge, has long arms, and can be a game changer on defense with some added strength and experience.

What Doesn't
He isn't athletically explosive and doesn't move super well laterally. On offense, he needs a lot of work but has the tools to be very good down the line.

34. Glenn Robinson III, SF Michigan So. (6-7, 211)

What Works Now
Athleticism and bloodlines. GR3, son of Big Dog Robinson, is an explosive athlete with terrific potential both ends of the court.

What Doesn't

Right now he is a ways away from reaching that potential, as he needs to improve both as a ballhandler and a shooter.

35. Jarnell Stokes, PF Tennessee Jr. (6-9, 263)

What Works Now
Stokes is an old-school, physical, below the rim post player who is also an excellent rebounder and gives good effort on the defensive end.

What Doesn't
There aren't a ton of players who fit Stokes' profile in the NBA anymore and his lack of vertical explosiveness may hinder his ability to score and defend in the NBA.

36. Jordan Clarkson, G Missouri Jr. (6-5, 186)

What Works Now
Ball-handling, athleticism, and size. Clarkson is a big combo guard who has the potential to convert to playing point guard.

What Doesn't
It is still a long shot for Clarkson to become a point guard, and if he isn't he is simply an undersized point guard who is an inconsistent shooter.

Tier 8: Make the Team

37. Joe Harris, SG Virginia Sr. (6-6, 216)

What Works Now
Shooting and defensive effort. Harris has a long track record of tremendous shooting and also plays very hard on the other end of the court.

What Doesn't

Harris has limited upside and isn't the type of athlete that usually becomes anything more than an above average defender.

38. Patric Young, F/C Florida Sr. (6-10, 247)

What Works Now
Strength, toughness, and athleticism. Young has been a rock solid defender in the paint at Florida for his whole career.

What Doesn't
He is undersized for his natural position of center and he doesn't have more than just rudimentary offensive skills. He is also a tremendously underwhelming rebounder who hasn't improved in that area at all.

39. Russ Smith, G Louisville Sr. (6-1, 160)

What Works Now
Smith is quick, can score in a multitude of ways and has improved as a offensive initiator over the course of his career.

What Doesn't
He still takes bad shots and is very undersized for even a point guard. Can play out of control at times.

40. Johnny O'Bryant, PF LSU Jr. (6-9, 257)

What Works Now
Offensive skill. O'Bryant is a traditional offensive big who can also step out and hit jumpers. He is a good rebounder and plays hard defense.

What Doesn't
O'Bryant, like Stokes, is an average athlete that may struggle against NBA athletes on both offense and defense.

Others to watch: Jahii Carson, PG Arizona State; Isaiah Austin, C Baylor; Jordan Adams, SG UCLA; Semaj Christon, G Xavier; Deonte Burton, PG Nevada; Walter Tavares, C Spain; 

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