2017 NBA Draft: Breaking Down Lonzo Ball

Lonzo Ball, UCLA 

Height: 6-6 Weight: 190 Age: 19

Statistically, Ball has been one of the most efficient players in college basketball, posting a .664 TS% and .659 eFG%, both elite numbers for a point guard. This is even more impressive when you consider that he neither gets fouled a ton (4.4 FTA/100 possessions) nor does he convert said free throws at a high rate (.658%). Ball's efficiency is built almost completely on his ability to score from the field, taking and making a high number of threes per game (7.7 per 100) while also scoring absurdly effienctly from two point range (.673%). His two point shooting is almost all based at the rim, as 2-point jumpers make up a paltry 6% of his shot taking.

However, here lies some of the concern for Ball, who clearly benefits from the elite offensive talent around him; for example UCLA has five players averaging heavy minutes shooting over 39% from three, which certainly contributes to Ball shooting .726% at the rim as elite spacing provides much easier opportunities at the basket, especially when you factor in Ball's passing ability requires opponents to stay at home on shooters. Additionally, Ball isn't an great one-foot leaper, which makes finish contested shoots at the rim more difficult. Unless Ball is drafted into the perfect situation in the NBA, he won't be nearly as effective at the rim, which is a large part of why he has been so effienctly so far in college. What about the other half of his offensive efficiency? Ball's three-point shooting is also some what questionable, and not just because his jumper makes Kevin Martin's shot look textbook. What isconcerning is that Ball's three pointers are being assisted on .793% of the time, that means that only 1/5 of his jumpers are created on his own. Ball likes to pull up in transition, which is one way he creates open threes, but overall Ball's awkward release makes shooting off the dribble, particularly when defends go under screens, difficult. Overall, his shot is easier to challenge than most so when the spacing UCLA has most likely disappears at the next level, he could see his open shots drop because of the margin for error lessening. 

Overall, Ball will most likely be more of an opportunistic scorer in the NBA, scoring in transition and using the threat of his passing to create open looks instead of the high efficiency player offensive player that his college stats might suggest.

Ball shines in his ability to affect the game in multiple ways with scoring. At 6-6, he has the size and defensive versatility to guard multiple positions and though his athletic tools will likely hold him back from being a lock down defender against an position, that versatility is a valueable commodity in today's NBA. Ball is active defensively, particularly off the ball, and has a inherent ability to be disruptive in passing lanes with quick hands and tremendous instincts. He also uses his size well as a deterrent to shooters, averaging 1.4 blocks per 100. He may never be a shutdown defender, but Ball has the versatility and disruptive ability to be an overall plus on that end

Though he is point guard, Ball is also excellent off the ball, adept at cutting and finding open spaces to receive the ball. Despite the awkwardness of his jumper, Ball is still effective shooting when he is open, which is crucial when playing without the ball.

As a passer, Ball is obviously quite gifted, especially in transition when pushing the ball with his eyes up searching for the open man. While he isn't the quickest player, Ball is deadly when breaking down the defense because of his vision, instincts, and IQ. However, there is some question as to how easily he will be able to penetrate without UCLA excellent spacing and whether he can be able to break down defenders off the dribble when the floor closes up in the halfcourt. 

UCLA, which has four excellent guards, doesn't always need Ball to be a dominant creator and can attack matchups accordingly. Workouts will be key to show whether or not Ball can be counted on to break down defenses at a high enough level to utilize his vision and passing in the halfcourt. He might benefit playing with another creator, for instance Boston could be drafting in the range where Ball would likely be selected and he could play as a co-creator role with Isaiah Thomas but without being asked to be the one and only creator on the floor.

Though there are some questions about his jumper and ability to get into the lane, Ball is still an excellent prospect because of his high level of intelligence and the way he can affect the game not with and without the ball. 

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Draft Debate: Kevon Looney vs. Christian Wood

Kevon Looney, Freshman, UCLA

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vs.
Christian Wood, Sophomore, UNLV

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Measurements*
Looney - Age: 19, Height: 6-9, Weight: 220, Wingspan: 7-3, Reach: 9-1½

Wood - Age: 19, Height: 6-11, Weight: 220, Wingspan: 7-2

Season Stats
Looney - 30.9 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.9 bpg, 1.3 tpg, 2.9 fpg, 47%/42%/63%
Wood - 32.9 mpg, 15.5 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.4 apg, 2.6 bpg, 2.5 tpg, 2.6 fpg, 49%/28%/73%

Stats Per 40
Looney - 14.9 ppg, 11.9 rpg (4.4 orpg, 7.5 drpg), 1.8 apg, 1.7 spg, 1.1 bpg, 1.6 tpg, 3.7 fpg
Wood - 18.8 ppg, 11.9 rpg (3.4 orpg, 8.5 drpg), 1.4 apg, 0.4 spg, 3.2 bpg, 3 tpg, 3.2 fpg

Advanced Stats
Looney - 22.4 PER, .532 TS%, .505 eFG%, 14.9 usage rate, 48% 2P
Wood - 25.1 PER, .572 TS%, .521 eFG%, 21.9 usage rate, 56% 2P

Statistics vs. Like Opponents (Arizona and Utah)
Looney - 122 minutes, 7.5 ppg, 5 rpg, 9/28 FG, 4/8 3P, 8/10 FT, 0.5 bpg
Wood - 64 minutes, 16 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 14/27 FG, 0/4 3P, 4/4 FT, 3 bpg

National Rankings
Looney - ESPN: 9th, CBS: 14th, DraftExpress: 18th
Wood - ESPN: 20th, CBS: 18th, DraftExpress: 23rd

Physical/Athletic Ability
Overall, both Looney and Wood are similar profiles. The are both lean with long arms, above-average quickness and very good, but not necessarily "jump off the page" vertical athleticism. Wood is taller, while Looney is perhaps a but bulkier at this point. Gaining strength will be the main goal of both for the next couple years.

Offense
Looney - The majority of Looney's offense at this point comes in the paint: 62% of his shots are at the rim with over half of those (32%) coming on put-backs, and 29% of all his shots from offensive rebounds. This becomes especially pertinent because Looney averages 3.4 offensive rebounds a game. However, there is good and bad to more than a quarter of a players offense coming off of offensive rebounds; the good is that it means Looney doesn't need plays run for him, and is always a threat to score. The bad is that it can show that a player isn't able to create their own shot as easily at the college level as you might like. This is a concern for Looney, who has little post game and while a good ball-handler for a power forward, is limited mostly to straight line drives from the perimeter. The skill where Looney has the most potential for growth is also the area he is currently most overrated in: shooting. Looney has good mechanics and should be a good shooter down the line, but those that view him as one now and or project a plus shooter down the line are looking too much at the 3-point percentage that, while good, comes from a very limited sample 53 attempts. This wouldn't be as much of a red flag if the rest of his shooting numbers weren't so concerning: on 2-point jumpers is shots away from the rim, Looney is shooting just 26% (a really bad number) while on free throws he is making 63% (below average). Again, Looney has the tools to be a better shooter but he is perhaps considerably farther off from being an impact shooter than is commonly thought. Some also consider Looney a possible candidate for transition from power forward to small forward, but unless the shooting improves or he becomes a much more advanced ball-handler, he would struggle there. His shooting and handle will play against power forwards, but against wing players? Not so much. Also, you'll be moving his best skill, offensive rebounding, further away from the basket. To live up to his lottery hype and become a consistent offensive contributor, Looney will need one more skill to add to his work on the offensive glass; the best candidate is the jumpshot because his size limits his post up potential. However, the jumper is no lock to get better and will require work.

Wood - Like Looney, Christian Wood gets a significant portion of his shots from offensive rebounds (22%) but takes a significantly less percentage of his shots at the rim (43%) as compared to Looney's 52% and converts them at a slightly higher rate (65% to 62%). Wood is a good ball-handler for his size, but is also somewhat limited to mostly straight line drives off of closeouts or when a defender is leaning too far one way. Like Looney, his quickness can be a weapon especially vs. slower-footed big men as his handle tightens up. Strength-wise, Wood just isn't built to be much of a post threat though he has the length and decent touch to have potential in that area. Wood is sort of the opposite of Looney, with a poor percentage from 3-point range (28% on 88 attempts) but much better shooting stats elsewhere. including an excellent 45% on 2-point jumpers and a career 75% on free throws. If Wood cuts 3s out of his game, focusing on mid-range shots until he develops range out to the 3-point range, he will be much more efficient while still providing spacing. Like with Looney, it isn't a lock that he gains a 3-point shot, but his underlying shooting stats back up that he is more likely to than Looney. Shooting will be crucial for Wood because it will cause defenders to close out harder, opening up more space to drive to the rim.

Defense and Rebounding
Looney - As was covered earlier, Looney is a tremendous offensive rebounder; his 3.4 offensive rebounds per game was 25th best in country while only Jahlil Okafor and Bobby Portis grabbed more per game among players likely to be taken in the draft. Defensively, he is still solid but not elite, grabbing 5.8 a game, good for 56th in the country. In both cases, Looney uses mostly length, quickness, and activity in order to get to rebounds, he isn't rooting opponents out of the way or simply towering over smaller guys, which means his rebounding will translate better because opponent size and strength won't matter as much in the equation. Defensively, he has some definite strengths and weaknesses. The area where he is likely to be of most use is versatility; Because of his quickness and lateral agility, Looney will be able to guard perimeter based 4s, switch onto perimeter players, and defend pick-and-rolls. He has quick hands with good anticipation intercepting passes and should be at creating turnovers. In the post, Looney is just not strong enough at this point to hold up defending against bigger opponents, another reason focusing on building strength will be crucial to his success. As a help defender and shot-blocker, Looney is willing but not incredibly instinctive in this area, his low block total (0.9 a game) is indicative of this. He has the length and mobility to be a solid help defender, but is a step behind many big men in this area, possibly because he spent so much time on the perimeter, defending 3s throughout his career.

Wood - By defensive rebounds per game, Wood is the best defensive rebounder in the draft, averaging 7.1 a game (11th in the country) while offensively he ranked 81st with 2.9. Like Looney, he doesn't do it with strength, instead using activity, long arms, and athleticism. Defensively, he has similar versatility to Looney because of his lateral quickness and long arms, he should be good defending on the perimeter and against pick-and-roll. As a post defender he also needs to get stronger in order to be not pushed around too much, though at his height he should be bother post players some. Where Wood is clearly ahead of Looney is as a rim protector and shot blocker. For Wood, his long arms and athletic ability are just the start, what makes him such a good shot blocker is his mobility and instincts, he can cover a lot of ground and times his challenges well. It is also important to note that Wood frequently played forward, not center, at UNLV which mean he had to work harder to protect the rim because he wasn't always positioned right under it.

NBA Comparison
Looney - Looney is a tough one, he has a body and play style similar to Jeff Green but rebounds more like Al-Farouq Aminu. Both are useful NBA players that always leave you wanting more, which is where I would project Looney to end up.

Wood - Physically, he is built like John Henson and plays defense in a similar style. Offensively, Henson is more of a dink-and-dunk type player while Wood has a legitimate jump-shot. Henson with a jumper is a valuable player.

Conclusion
Looney is ranked above Wood basically everywhere, but I am not sure I see why. They have similar physical tool except that Wood is taller. Offensively, Wood has shown to be a more consistent shooter while he is way ahead as a defender and a defensive rebounder. Looney has the edge really only as an offensive rebounder. Give me Christian Wood.

*Height and weight are from the school listing, wingspan and reach come from USA Basketball in 2013 for Looney and LeBron James Camp in 2012 for Wood, both via DraftExpress. This will be updated after the Chicago combine.

Disagree?

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Match-ups to watch during the Round of 64

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R.J. Hunter vs. Baylor

After two strong years at Georgia State and an impressive showing at the Nike Skils Camp, R.J. Hunter  was considered by some to be a potential lottery pick. However, after struggling with the bread-and butter of his game this season (shooting), Hunter is looking more like a bubble first-rounder. Even if Georgia State loses their first round game against Baylor, a big performance by Hunter could help his standing in the eyes of teams picking in the late lottery. The Bears will easily be the best defense that Hunter has faced this year (he did score 21 vs Iowa State earlier this year), and their brand of zone defense can be particularly frustrating for perimeter players, with opponents hitting only 30% of their 3s against them (16th best in the country) as well as closing off driving lanes. The zone will also take away another of his weapons, the pick-and-roll, but if Hunter gets it going from behind the arc, it will be a boon to both his team and his draft standing, because shooting is where his money will be made. 

Myles Turner vs. Butler

Texas has underachieved based on their talent so far this year, but they are very, very talented. Turner is best of the bunch, a potential top 10 pick who at 6-11 has both perimeter skills and can protect the rim. One of Turner's biggest warts is he doesn't always play in the paint offensively like he potentially can. Butler has no player taller than 6-9 (the slim Kameron Woods) so Turner will have a massive size advantage he should be able to take advantage of in the post and on the glass. What makes this matchup extra intriguing is Butler's physical style of defense, despite the fact they are undersized, the Bulldogs will still compete. Will Turner use his size advantage or continue to float around the perimeter on offense? The answer will go a long way to determine Texas level of success.

Kevon Looney vs. Marcus Kennedy and Yanick Moreira
Much to the chagrin of many, UCLA made it into the tournament and weren't even the last team in. However, what may be a loss for common sense is a gain for fans, who get to see potential lottery pick Kevon Looney again, and in a tough match-up against a deep and athletic SMU frontcourt to boot. Looney is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country and he has rapidly developing perimeter skills, but right now he is skinny and not a particularly physical player. The Mustangs two best big men, Kennedy and Moreira will challenge Looney inside on both ends, though neither are big time NBA prospects, they are both more physically developed than Looney and can play in the paint on both ends. Kennedy in particular is a load, listed at 6-9, 245 and relatively skilled. If SMU starts attacking Looney through Kennedy it could be a long night for UCLA and another question about his readiness for the next level.

D'Angelo Russell vs. Havoc
Despite being a highly regarded prospect, Russell still flew under the radar until his play brought the spotlight and the accolades, to the point that he is a legitimate contender to be a top 3 overall pick and an sure-fire All-American. Despite his herculean efforts, Ohio State is still just a middling team who will face a serious challange in lower seeded VCU. The Ram's havoc defense is well known at this point, a meat-grinder of non-stop pressure that can make even the most seasoned players look foolish at times. Russell is fortunate enough to share a backcourt with another ball-handler, Shannon Scott, which will certainly help the Buckeyes break the press. However, Russell is a high usage player and one of the best in the country with the ball in his hands, so there it will be quite a bit. It is worth noting that VCU's best defender, Briante Webber (and his 3.9 steals per game), is not going to be playing in the game. I doubt any performance does much to his draft standing, but it will certainly affect Ohio State's chances of advancing. Two years ago we were saying similar things about Trey Burke against the VCU and the Rams lost that game by 25, but Burke had 7 turnovers, so this all may be a moot point. 

Jarrell Martin and Jordan Mickey vs. NC State

The duo of Martin and Mickey make up one of the best frontcourts in college basketball, between the two of them they average 32.4 points, 19 rebounds, and 4.3 blocks a game, shooting 51% from the floor. They are LSU's two best players and if the Tigers are going to make any noise, it will fall on their shoulders. Mickey, who has been dealing with a shoulder injury, is the better all around player, but Martin is the one NBA teams are interested in because he is two inches than the 6-8 Mickey and has better perimeter skills. A strong tournament by the pair could vault Martin into the mid-first round and convince NBA decision makers than Mickey could be an outlier in the vein of Paul Millsap, a successful 6-8 power forward. NC State has some big bodies in the middle, but none of the quality of LSU. Last season Tennessee fell two points shy of reaching the Elite 8 in large part because they had bigs inside that opponents could not handle, LSU could be that team this year.

Fred VanVleet, Ron Baker, and Tekele Cotton vs. Yogi Farrell and James Blackmon Jr.
Wichita State/Indiana is intriguing for off-court reasons, but on the court is where the most exciting action will be, particularly between the guards. Each of the Shockers three main backcourt players offer something different, VanVleet is the steady point guard and leader, while Baker is a knockdown shooter, and Cotton is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country. Going up against them are Indiana's star backcourt duo, both can shoot and make plays off the dribble and containing them will be key to Wichita States chances. Who guards who and when should be fascinating, and if the game is close, the crunchtime back and forths between these guards should be very fun to watch. Guards usually carry the day in March, so whichever backcourt plays better will likely be the ones that advance.

Montrezl Harrell vs. Mamadou Ndiaye

Undersized power forwards face an uphill battle to succeed in the NBA, and more often than not they fail, however some succeed and even can become All-Stars. Montrezl Harrell will certainly be hoping to fall into the second group, and he has long arms and tremendous athletic gifts on his side, though he is likely only 6-8 and may be shorter. One of the reason smaller power forwards tend to struggle is that they are going up against bigger, longer players on a nightly basis and have a disadvantage when it comes to scoring over those opponents. At 7-6, with an absurd 8-1 wingspan, big Mamadou Ndiaye is the biggest test that Harrell could possibly have against size and length. He should be able to score in transition, but can Harrell score at the rim in the half court versus Ndiaye? That is one of the more interesting matchups in the first round this year.

Kris Dunn vs. Anyone

Under-the-radar most of the season, Kris Dunn is finally starting to get his recognition as one of the best players in college basketball and a legitimate NBA prospect. No matter who Providence is playing, Dunn is appointment viewing because of his exciting, all-around game. He can shoot, penetrate, and pass, everything you want from a point guard and does it with quickness and style. Do yourself a favor and watch Dunn if you haven't before, you may be watching one of the next fast risers as a prospect and also just a darn fun basketball player.

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NBA Draft: Kyle Anderson Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 20; Height: 6-9; Weight: 230; Wingspan: 7-2; Reach: 9-0

Season Stats (as of 2/19)

33.0 mpg, 15.5 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 6.8 apg, 1.6 spg, 0.8 bpg, 3.2 tpg, 1.6 fpg, .502 FG, .742 FT, .524 3P

Strengths

-Outstanding length/reach

-Great size if he is a 3

-Very fluid, great body control, moves very well

-Crafty below-the-rim finisher

-Can penetrate off the dribble

-Much improved shooter from 3-point range

-Great mid-range game

-Legitimate point guard skills

-Excellent ball handler

-Top level court vision

-Outstanding passer

-Above-average rebounder

-Length an asset on D

-Unselfish

-Can play multiple positions offensively

-Made a big jump from years 1 to 2

Weaknesses

-Not a great athlete

-Plays mostly below the rim

-Not very quick

-Suspect lateral movement

-Could struggle on D

-Unknown how well his game will translate

-Can he win off the dribble in the NBA?

-Needs to get stronger

-Questions about position on defense

-Not a fit for every team

-May require some creative scheming

-Slow release on jumper 

-Short track record of high efficiency shooting

NBA Comparison

Anderson defies both NBA positions and NBA comparisons; he has the build and shooting ability of former second rounder pick Justin Harper (currently playing in Israel), but with the legitimate point guard skills at that size, similar to former Rocket and Sixer Royce White, though presumably without the baggage.

Draft Projection

Teams could view Anderson as a point guard, a power forward, or anything in between. Where he plays will likely be determined by who he can guard defensively. Additionally, Anderson's not a fit for every offense and will take a GM and coach who have a plan for how to use him on both ends of the court. I could see him going anywhere from the late lottery to the second round, with the most likely landing spot somewhere in the middle

Highlights

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