Lonzo Ball, UCLA
Height: 6-6 Weight: 190 Age: 19
Statistically, Ball has been one of the most efficient players in college basketball, posting a .664 TS% and .659 eFG%, both elite numbers for a point guard. This is even more impressive when you consider that he neither gets fouled a ton (4.4 FTA/100 possessions) nor does he convert said free throws at a high rate (.658%). Ball's efficiency is built almost completely on his ability to score from the field, taking and making a high number of threes per game (7.7 per 100) while also scoring absurdly effienctly from two point range (.673%). His two point shooting is almost all based at the rim, as 2-point jumpers make up a paltry 6% of his shot taking.
However, here lies some of the concern for Ball, who clearly benefits from the elite offensive talent around him; for example UCLA has five players averaging heavy minutes shooting over 39% from three, which certainly contributes to Ball shooting .726% at the rim as elite spacing provides much easier opportunities at the basket, especially when you factor in Ball's passing ability requires opponents to stay at home on shooters. Additionally, Ball isn't an great one-foot leaper, which makes finish contested shoots at the rim more difficult. Unless Ball is drafted into the perfect situation in the NBA, he won't be nearly as effective at the rim, which is a large part of why he has been so effienctly so far in college. What about the other half of his offensive efficiency? Ball's three-point shooting is also some what questionable, and not just because his jumper makes Kevin Martin's shot look textbook. What isconcerning is that Ball's three pointers are being assisted on .793% of the time, that means that only 1/5 of his jumpers are created on his own. Ball likes to pull up in transition, which is one way he creates open threes, but overall Ball's awkward release makes shooting off the dribble, particularly when defends go under screens, difficult. Overall, his shot is easier to challenge than most so when the spacing UCLA has most likely disappears at the next level, he could see his open shots drop because of the margin for error lessening.
Overall, Ball will most likely be more of an opportunistic scorer in the NBA, scoring in transition and using the threat of his passing to create open looks instead of the high efficiency player offensive player that his college stats might suggest.
Ball shines in his ability to affect the game in multiple ways with scoring. At 6-6, he has the size and defensive versatility to guard multiple positions and though his athletic tools will likely hold him back from being a lock down defender against an position, that versatility is a valueable commodity in today's NBA. Ball is active defensively, particularly off the ball, and has a inherent ability to be disruptive in passing lanes with quick hands and tremendous instincts. He also uses his size well as a deterrent to shooters, averaging 1.4 blocks per 100. He may never be a shutdown defender, but Ball has the versatility and disruptive ability to be an overall plus on that end
Though he is point guard, Ball is also excellent off the ball, adept at cutting and finding open spaces to receive the ball. Despite the awkwardness of his jumper, Ball is still effective shooting when he is open, which is crucial when playing without the ball.
As a passer, Ball is obviously quite gifted, especially in transition when pushing the ball with his eyes up searching for the open man. While he isn't the quickest player, Ball is deadly when breaking down the defense because of his vision, instincts, and IQ. However, there is some question as to how easily he will be able to penetrate without UCLA excellent spacing and whether he can be able to break down defenders off the dribble when the floor closes up in the halfcourt.
UCLA, which has four excellent guards, doesn't always need Ball to be a dominant creator and can attack matchups accordingly. Workouts will be key to show whether or not Ball can be counted on to break down defenses at a high enough level to utilize his vision and passing in the halfcourt. He might benefit playing with another creator, for instance Boston could be drafting in the range where Ball would likely be selected and he could play as a co-creator role with Isaiah Thomas but without being asked to be the one and only creator on the floor.
Though there are some questions about his jumper and ability to get into the lane, Ball is still an excellent prospect because of his high level of intelligence and the way he can affect the game not with and without the ball.
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