Thursday, June 4, 2015

2015 NBA Draft: Top 50 Ranking with Tiers + Comps


One of the best ways to break down draft value is by dividing the prospects into tiers. It not only shows the strength and value of the draft, but gives you an idea of what to expect from the players. To that end, the comparisons are NOT predictions of future value, it is simply to give you an idea of each prospects game, how they play now and what their path to success in the NBA is down the line. 

Tier 1: Multiple All-Star Potential
Barring injury, these players should play at All-Star level or better for their prime years.

1. Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C Kentucky (6-11, 250) Age: 19
Though he might not go number one, Towns has settled in as the consensus best prospect in the draft. With tremendous size, nimble feet, and a legitimate inside-out game Towns compares favorably to Grizzlies center Marc Gasol. Gasol is a similar offensive player and an upper echelon defender despite lacking elite athletic ability because of his length, size, and most of all, positioning. Towns has the first two in spades and shows great potential in the third area. 

2. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG Guandong (6-5, 200) Age: 19
Mudiay is by far the most likely from this tier to slide down the top 10, though that has more to do with the teams that are drafting than Mudiay. There aren't any current point guards that really match up with Mudiay's size/athleticism/skillset, but his game is similar to that of Jeff Teague, both are explosive players who function best off of penetration. So think of Mudiay as Teague with plus-plus size, which is a tantalizing thought.

3. D'Angelo Russell, SG Ohio State (6-5, 193) Age: 19
Because he has skills every single team needs, Russell seems like a lock to be a top 4 pick. James Harden is the most common comp for Russell, and it fits in that both are excellent shooters that can function as primary playmakers. Of course, coming out of Arizona State, Harden was a better finisher that drew fouls at a higher rate and had 25+ pounds on Russell. These are the areas Russell most needs to improve on, so perhaps it's best to say that the hope for him is to become a comp to Harden down the line once his finishing, ability to draw contact, and body improve.

4. Jahlil Okafor, C Duke (6-11, 270) Age: 19
Okafor is still in the mix for the top pick because Flip Saunders likes him and is the favorite to be drafted second overall. As far as comps, he is a similar size to DeMarcus Cousins and both have amazing hands and feet for their size. Cousins is a little bit more skilled on the perimeter than Okafor and is a much better rebounder, so maybe Cousins post game with some of Al Jefferson's limitations is the best comparison for Okafor.

Tier 2: All-Star Potential
Not quite as certain of overwhelming success as tier 1, this group should still play at an All-Star level more often than not in their prime years.

5. Mario Hezonja, G/F Barcelona (6-8, 200) Age: 20
Hezonja is a major wildcard in the top 10 and I could see him going as early as 3 to the Sixers. With his ability to score from anywhere on the floor, handle the ball, and distribute (when he wants to) at 6-8, Hezonja is similar to a lighter Joe Johnson. Both players can be dynamic shot creators, though occasionally to the detriment of their team when they become too ISO-heavy. Johnson is often maligned, mostly for his contract, but he's been one of the best wing players in the league for over a decade.

6. Kristaps Porzingis, PF Sevilla (7-0, 220) Age: 19
Porzingis is a polarizing prospect that teams who want a quick rebuild may avoid because he may take a year or two get physically ready to compete in the NBA as a starter. I am not sure that Porzingis will ever be as good as Chris Bosh, but the two do share a number of similarities as prospects. Bosh was basically the same size as Porzingis when he was drafted out of Georgia Tech, both have an excellent perimeter game, add value as shot blockers while not being dominant rebounders. Porzingis has Bosh-level upside, but needs to develop physically and mentally the way Bosh did.

7. Justise Winslow, G/F Duke (6-7, 222) Age: 19
Winslow also seems like a lock for the top ten, with a possibility to go as high as the Lakers at 2 if they are looking for year one impact. Right now, Winslow's best comp is actually Jeff Taylor of the Hornets, both are great athletes with similar size, defensive potential, and questionable shot-creating abilities. The big difference is Winslow is likely to get much better, while Taylor's growth has been stagnated by a knee injury and domestic violence charges. Another important difference? Taylor was 23 when drafted, Winslow is 19.

8. Willie Cauley-Stein, C Kentucky (7-1, 242) Age: 21
Cauley-Stein's draft position will depend a lot on if teams think they can sustain offense with him playing power forward. Cauley-Stein is an excellent defensive prospect with top level physical traits but limited offensive ability, similar to Tyson Chandler, who protects the rim and can guard on the perimeter and scores almost entirely off of lobs. One of the biggest concerns about Cauley-Stein is also the biggest difference between him and Chandler: Cauley-Stein is a much poorer defensive rebounder because of his lack of fundamentals.

Tier 3: Plus Contributors With All-Star Upside
These players should provide early contribution, with the downside of an above-average rotation player and the upside to provide an All-Star level season or two. 

9. Stanley Johnson, F Arizona (6-7, 242) Age: 19
Johnson could easily move up into the top 8 picks if a team is looking for an instant impact of defense and shooting. There aren't a ton of physical comps for Johnson, a rare specimen who just turned 19, but in some ways he reminds me of Draymond Green. Both are big, thick players who can shoot from the outside and willing do the dirty work to help their teams win. Johnson isn't likely to end up at power forward (though I believe he could play their some) but he might provide some of the value Green does but on the wing. 

10. Myles Turner, C Texas (7-0, 239) Age: 18
Turner is another wildcard because he has such a coveted skillset and big upside, he could go definitely higher than some expect. One of the reasons Turner skillset is so desired is that it is very rare, there aren't very many players in the NBA with his size the can both shoot and protect the rim. Another former Longhorn LaMarcus Aldridge is most often comped to Turner, though Aldridge is a better athlete with more of a post game, he and Turner do share some traits that can get teams excited at his upside.

11. Frank Kaminsky, F/C Wisconsin (7-1, 231) Age: 22
Kaminsky is another player that can go higher than some expect because he is ready to contribute right away. Kaminsky is a great outside shooter, ball-handler, and passer who lacks a natural NBA comparison. While he lacks the eye popping leaping ability of Josh McRoberts, and is more polished offensively, both share the ability to shoot, handle the ball, and pass.

12. Jerian Grant, PG Notre Dame (6-4, 198) Age: 22
Jerian Grant is another prospect that may be valued differently because he will be able to step in right away and contribute. Physically, he is a clone of Jrue Holiday and both are point guards that do everything well but perhaps lack one standout ability to set put them in the elite tier of point guards. When right and healthy, Holiday is a valuable contributor that does a lot to help his team win, Grant should provide similar value.

13. Kelly Oubre, G/F Kansas (6-7, 203) Age: 19
Oubre has the talent of a top 10 pick, but for one reason or another struggled with consistency his one year at Kansas, so his pick variance is wide. DeMar DeRozan also came into the league with incredible talent, but took a year or two to become a consistent contributor. They aren't exactly the same type of player, but Oubre's career arc may be similar to DeRozan's. Oubre's status in this tier is tenuous based on his inconsistencies, but his upside is just so immense.

Tier 4: Plus Contributors
In whatever role they are given, these players should contribute at an above-average quality.

14. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF Arizona (6-7, 211) Age: 20
Hollis-Jefferson is unlikely to be drafted this high, even though he deserves to be, simply because teams are scared by defense-first wing players in the top half of the first round. Hollis-Jefferson has top level defensive potential and is essentially Tony Allen, without the craziness and 3-inches taller, which is terrifying. Even offensively, Hollis-Jefferson is similar to Allen, they both struggles to shoot, instead scoring off of energy, smart cuts, and slashes to the basket. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is another possible comp.

15. Bobby Portis, PF Arkansas (6-11, 246) Age: 20
Portis is one of the safest players in the draft and could be attractive to late lottery teams hoping to make a jump to the playoffs, or he could slide because of a perceived lack up of upside. Portis is far from unskilled and can score both inside and out, but he can also play physical, below the rim defense similar to younger, healthy Nene who didn't block a ton of shots, but he was strong as a rock and moved his feet really well defensively. Portis could eventually be Nene with 3-point range, which is an exciting idea. 

16. Devin Booker, SG Kentucky (6-6, 206) Age: 18
Booker also a large variance because some can look at him and see an elite shooter with upside for more, while others see a one dimensional role player. I tend to believe the former, simply because he is 18 and still developing. If Booker doesn't develop the other parts of his game, than he likely settles into an Anthony Morrow-type career path, whereas if he does grow into a better defender or playmaker, Courtney Lee or J.J. Redick would be possible comps. You can even squint your eyes and remember that Klay Thompson was knocked as a one-dimensional shooter who many thought couldn't defend when he came out of Washington State.

17. Cameron Payne, PG Murray State (6-2, 183) Age: 20
Indiana at 11 is rumored to love Payne, which is probably his ceiling with the late first representing his floor. It is ironic that Indiana is interested in Payne, because he compares most favorably current Indiana guard George Hill, who is a little taller but overall both are solid overall point guards; good shooters and playmakers but not exactly flashy or dominant in one area.

18. Montrezl Harrell, PF Louisville (6-8, 253) Age: 21
Harrell's draft position will depend on when teams are willing to take a player that is likely to be a bench player, even if he is very valuable in that role. Harrell is undersized in height only, he is strong, with long arms, terrific athleticism, and plays like a maniac. The obvious comparison for Harrell is Kenneth Faried, they both are undersized and athletic, but play very hard. However, Faried has never been even an average defensive player, while Harrell projects to be above-average or better.

19. Tyus Jones, PG Duke (6-2, 185) Age: 19
Jones is another safe option that could end up going in the lottery to a team looking for a steady point guard, even if Jones may end up as an excellent back-up instead of a starter. Jones is possibly the smartest player in the draft, though he is limited athletically he understands the nuances of playing point guard while limiting turnovers, maximizing the chances he creates for teammates, and making outside shots to keep defenders honest. In that way Jones is similar to Jose Calderon, though Jones will likely be more of a penetrating player that Calderon, both are A/TO players that can shoot and will likely struggle to defend. 

20. Robert Upshaw, C Washington (7-0, 258) Age: 21
Upshaw is a massive wildcard because he has the talent to go in the top 10, but that off-the-court issues of an undrafted player. In that respect and in others, Upshaw's best case scenario is Hassan Whiteside. Both are massive guys with incredible shot blocking ability that can rebound and score around the basket, but also have some character question marks and aren't the most skilled offensive players. So maybe Upshaw's upside is Whiteside this year, while his downside is Whiteside every other year previous to this. 

Tier 5: High Upside With Flaws
These players can become above-average contributors, but each has at least one significant flaw that could hold them back from reaching that potential.

21. Sam Dekker, F Wisconsin (6-9, 219) Age: 21
Dekker is a late lottery possibility, with teams like Oklahoma City and Utah looking for impact bench players potential landing spots. Dekker is a combo forward with a unique ability to handle the ball and finish at the rim at a high rate but with an inconsistent jumpshot. In some ways he is like Gordon Heyward was as a prospect, both have excellent size but we're underrated athletically because of their skin color. However, Heyward continued to grow exponentially as a playmaker and shooter, which is what Dekker will have to do to make it in the NBA, far from a lock.

22. Christian Wood, PF UNLV (6-11, 216) Age: 19
Wood also has a high upside but will require some development, which may scare some teams off and push him down to the later third of the first round. Wood is long armed and athletic, a similar physical profile to John Henson. Both are active players that rebound and block shots, though Wood has some more upside to his game because of a solid midrange shot and the ability to attack close outs and get to the basket.

23. Kevon Looney, PF UCLA (6-9, 222) Age: 19
Some rate Looney as a top 10 prospect, so he could very well go that high, while others are more concerned. I fall more into the former camp, I see a lot of Jeff Green in his game, a combo forward a little stuck between positions without the consistency or skills to dominate at either position. The one thing Looney has going for him over Green is his excellent offensive rebounding ability, which could be a differ nice maker.

24. R.J. Hunter, SG Georgia State (6-6, 185) Age: 21
For teams wanting shooting, Hunter could be a lottery pick to a team like the Thunder. If you are drafting Hunter, you hope he'll follow a similar career arc to J.J. Redick, who started out as just a shooter and developed into a solid team defender who can also run pick-and-roll, something Hunter has shown an ability to do at Georgia State.

25. Trey Lyles, PF Kentucky (6-10, 241) Age: 19
The Knicks are supposedly enamored with Lyles, so I supposed his range starts there, as unbelievable as it may seem. Lyles is young, has great size and is a very smart players, so the hope is that he can develop his shooting to the point he can be a Ryan Anderson-type of stretch-4, the concern is that if the perimeter game doesn't develop, than he is basically Trey Thompkins, aka not an NBA player.

Tier 6: The Rest
This group is a mix of low upside role players, higher upside overseas players, and players with big enough flaws that out their ability to stick in the NBA in doubt.

26. Delon Wright, PG Utah (6-6, 181) Age: 23
Wright's age is likely to keep him out of the top third of the first round, but a team looking for insane impact like Cleveland could be interested. Wright is hard to comp because he is legitimately able to play point guard at 6-6; however in both size and skill he is similar to Shaun Livingston, who uses his size to see the floor and score in the paint. Wright is a little shorter and lacks a post game, but he is probably a better shooter and defender, an intriguing combination of size and skill.

27. George de Paula Lucas, PG Pinheiros (6-6, 197) Age: 19
For teams looking to save money for this season, Lucas is likely the prime target as a draft-and-stash prospect, though he may wish to come over right away. Lucas is difficult to comp with accuracy because what he is now isn't what he will be when he is able to play in the NBA. If Lucas reaches his upside, he could be similar to Alec Burks, a long-armed guard that makes plays off the dribble and draws fouls, but with more defensive upside than Burks has shown thus far.

28. Aleksandar Vezenkov, F Aris (6-8, 200) Age: 19
Another potential draft-and-stash prospect that could also come over right away and help a team out, Vezenkov is potentially the best shooter in the draft. Vezenkov could have a similar impact as Mirza Teletovic, a combo forward that can hold his own on the glass while providing valuable spacing. Both can struggle defensively, but Vezenkov can learn to be a good team defender.

29. Timothe Luwawu, SF Antibes (6-7, 205) Age: 20
Yet another draft-and-stash prospect, Luwawu has the best size/athleticism combination of these three  and could be the first drafted. Right now, he compares favorably to Andre Roberson, an excellent defender and finisher at the rim. If, unlike Roberson, he can develop a consistent jumpshot (the makings are there) then he could become a valuable defender/shooter/slasher.

30. Anthony Brown, G/F Standord (6-9, 211) Age: 22
A true role player, Brown could be taken in the late first because of his high floor, though the early second is more likely. Brown is a traditional 3-and-D wing player, so take your pick of that ilk. Going with the color name theme, Danny Green is a good comparison, though he doesn't have Green's innate shotblocking ability, Brown is perhaps a better passer.

31. Justin Anderson, SF Virgina (6-6, 231) Age: 21
Anderson has more athletic upside than Brown, so he is more likely to be drafted higher, even though there are some serious questions about his jumper. Athletically, he is similar to Iman Shumpert, with like  defensive potential and offensive limitations. Once Shumpert gained consistency in catch-and-shoot situations, he became a valuable asset, so that will be Anderson's path to success.

32. Jonathan Holmes, F Texas (6-9, 242) Age: 22
If teams view Holmes as a perimeter 4, he could go in the bottom third of the first round. The best case scenario for Holmes is a Patrick Patterson-type of power forward that can make outside shots, but that is if Holmes' jumpshot improves. If not, he might flame out like fellow Longhorn Jordan Hamilton, who's shot-selection wrote checks his jumpshot couldn't cash.

33. Terry Rozier, PG Louisville (6-2, 190) Age: 21
Another beauty-in-the-eye-of-the-beholder prospect, Rozier could go in the first if teams are okay with a back-up point guard. Rozier plays at full speed at all times, attacking the basket and pressuring the opposition, both offensively and defensively. He is a better defender than former Mavs guard Roddy Beaubois, but both are microwave combo guards that can score points in a hurry through penetration and transition.

34. Chris McCullough, PF Syracuse (6-9, 199) Age: 20
Because of his knee injury, McCullough is likely to be taken in the second round, even if he has the talent of a first round pick. The hope is that after he recovers, McCullough can put on enough weight to become a physical defender and shot blocker who can also make jumpshots and finish at the rim, similar to Taj Gibson.

35. Rakeem Christmas, F/C Syracuse (6-10, 243) Age: 23
Christmas is a low upside big man that teams looking for quality frontcourt depth will target in the second round. Like Ed Davis, Christmas is a physical defender and shot blocker who isn't completely lost with the ball in his hands and can finish effectively around th basket. Christmas might be more skilled than Davis, and is certainly a better free throw shooter.

36. Jordan Mickey, PF LSU (6-8, 231) Age: 20
Mickey's situation is similar to Christmas, he has certain bankable skills and will be intruiging to teams looking for defense and rebounding off the bench. Mickey is undersized, but he makes up for it defensively with long arms and excellent athletic ability, he is a better shot blocker than Trevor Booker but both have a size deficiency that lowers the margin for error in their games.

37. J.P. Tokoto, SG North Carolina (6-6, 196) Age: 21
Tokoto's draft position will depend a lot on if teams are convinced he can shoot, because he brings a lot to the table otherwise. DeAndre Liggins came into the NBA an ace wing defender who could also handle the ball and pass, but he never developed a consistent 3-point shot and had some off the court troubles. Provided Tokoto avoids the latter, the former will be key to his NBA success.

38. Nikola Milutinov, C Partizan (7-0, 220) Age: 20
Young, mobile big men are always appealing to teams in the second round, especially those that can be stashed overseas. Nikola Milutinov has excellent size and is a good athlete with developing skills, but he needs to get a lot stronger and tougher. Keith Benson came into the league a similar prospect with similar weaknesses and he failed to stick because he didn't overcome them, as Milutinov must to succeed.

39. Jarell Martin, PF LSU (6-9, 239) Age: 21
Martin is a solid, all-around forward that doesn't excel in any area but may appeal to teams looking for safe depth. Martin is quite like Marcus Morris, who was drafted in the lottery but has struggled to carve out a niche as a combo forward because he doesn't quite have one skill to latch on to. Martin is similar and he will need to improve in at least one area in order to become a consistent role player.

40. Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C Nantarre (6-11, 247) Age: 20
Jaiteh will appeal to teams looking for a more offensive-minded backup big man, and he is likely to come over the NBA immediately. Jaiteh's best attribute is his excellent face-up game, but he is slow-footed and struggles defensively at times, similar to Mike Muscala.

41. Cedi Osman, SF Anadolu Efes (6-8, 190) Age: 20
Osman needs the right fit to succeed, so his draft range varies depending on what teams think of his ability to work in their system. Osman is basically a poor man's Dario Saric, able to play point forward but struggles from 3-point range. Saric was a lottery pick because he is bigger and a better athlete, which makes a big difference.

42. Cliff Alexander, PF Kansas (6-9, 239) Age: 19
Alexander definitely has upside, which teams will like, and at least he a place and defense/rebounding 4th or 5th big man. While same-school comps are usually pretty lazy, Alexander and fellow Jayhawk Thomas Robinson are very similar. Both are undersized but strong and athletic power forwards who are best on the glass while lack refined offensive skill. What Alexander has going for him over Robinson: he is a better defender and isn't convinced he can make jumpshots.

43. Norman Powell, SG UCLA (6-4, 215) Age: 22
Powell is one of a number of combo guards that could be drafted anywhere from the early second to not at all, depending on the eye of the beholder. Powell is a strong combo guard that is really good at getting to the rim and can set up teammates, but struggles from the outside. In that way he is what many hoped Dion Waiters would be, though without being the disaster teammate Waiters is.

44. Michael Frazier, SG Florida (6-4, 199) Age: 21
Frazier is a little undersized, but he can shoot while not being a disaster of a defender and teams are always looking for that. Frazier's game right now is similar to John Jenkins, but if he can become more of a shot-creator and play up to his physical ability on defense (two things Jenkins never did), Frazier should have a better chance to stick.

45. Arturas Gudaitis, C Zalgirls (6-10, 253) Age: 22
Gudaitis could possible help a team next season or be stashed in Europe, so he will have some extra appeal to teams in the second. Like Miles Plumlee, Gudaitis is a bouncy big man who plays hard and understands that his range is "paint," and mostly sticks to it, which has value because he can play center.

46. Andrew Harrison, SG Kentucky (6-6, 213) Age: 20
Harrison had a good showing at the NBA combine and should be a second round target for a number of teams. I wouldn't let Harrison near the point gaurd position, but as a Lance Stephenson type of power guard that attacks the basket, draws fouls, and make some plays for others, preferably in a bench role.

47. Guillermo Hernangomez, C Sevilla (6-11, 255) Age: 21
Hernangomez had a very productive season in the second best basketball league in the world and could come to the NBA right away. Hernangomez is physically and athletically similar to Henry Sims, though Hernangomez is a much better rebounder (his biggest strength), both are below the rim players that are comfortable on offense.

48. Richaun Holmes, F/C Bowling Green (6-10, 243) Age: 21
Holmes had a great combine and should get looks as an athletic, high energy backup big man with the size to play both forward spots. He is similar to Tony Mitchell, who has yet to stick in a rotation but both have the upside of an excellent 4th or 5th big man that can rebound and block shots.

49. Alpha Kaba, F/C Pau-Orthez (6-10, 225) Age: 19
Kaba is tough to peg, he has big upside and should appeal to teams looking for the "next" Giannis Antetokounmpo. Kaba is like Antetokounmpo in that he has surprising skill for his size and age, but is still very raw in some ways and plays against poor competition. Antetokounmpo is a one of a kind success story, so expecting Kaba to turn out the same would be foolish, but if there's just a small chance....

50. Tyler Harvey, SG Eastern Washington (6-4, 181) Age: 21
Harvey might be the best all around shooter in the draft, so that alone might get him drafted, even if he doesn't offer much else. In a way, I could see Harvey as becoming what many wanted Jimmer Fredette to be, or maybe Eddie House. A lights out shooter that doesn't kill you on defense but doesn't offer much besides great shooting. Troy Daniels is another recent example.

Just Missed: Michael Qualls, SG Arkansas; Rashad Vaughn, SG UNLV; ; Joseph Young, SG Oregon; Dakari Johnson, C Kentucky; Alan Williams, C UCSB

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