Scouting the Champions Classic: Kentucky Wildcats

Julius Randle, PF (6-9, 250)

Coming into the season, there were many who considered Julius Randle to be a better prospect than Andrew Wiggins, and while I wouldn't say that necessarily (elite, different, not better), Randle is clearly one of the top three prospects in this draft and definitely in consideration for the number 1 overall pick. Randle, who was dominant in his first two games against weak competition, struggled mightily in the first half against Michigan State scoring only 4 points, (1-5 FG, 2-2 FT), 4 rebounds, and 4 turnovers. The second half was another story however, Randle was dominant and brought Kentucky back into the game almost single-handedly. He scored 23 points (8-9 FG, 7-13 FT) after the break, as well as grabbing 9 boards but also committing 4 more turnovers. Randle likes to face up, and is good at it, but he is basically unstoppable in the post at this level, which is where he needs to spend all of his time. He is an elite rebounder as well, particularly offensively, and projects as a 20-10 player in the NBA and certainly a top 3 pick. Randle does need to cut the turnovers, (4 per game is too much) and knock down free throws more consistently, but he is already one of the best players in the country.

James Young, G/F (6-6, 215)

After the whole class had committed, James Young was often the overlooked elite recruit on Kentucky's roster, but his stock got a big boost over the summer, with many thinking he was the best prospect on the team behind Randle. Young had an up and down game against Michigan State, like Randle, he dominated one half (15 points on 5-7 FG, 3-5 from 3, 2-3 FT in the first), and struggled in the second (4 points, 2-9 FG, 0-6 from three, 0-2 FT). He really carried Kentucky that one half, scoring almost half of their points, and kept the score from getting out of hand. That was impressive, the second half was not however, but considering Youmg was the only Kentucky guard to show up at all, all the pressure was on him to stretch the floor and create from the perimeter. Obviously, it would have been nice for him to step up to the challenge for the whole game, but it is easy to forget that this is an 18 year-old playing in his third career game. Young isn't an elite prospect, but he has a chance to be a very good one, and a top 10-15 pick.

Andrew Harrison, PG (6-6, 215)

In his first chance to impress on a big stage, Andrew Harrison disappointed big time. The raw numbers don't look terrible (11 points, 3-6 FG, 4-4 FT, 1-1 from deep, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 4 turnovers) but he was unimpressive, struggling to initiate any kind of offense for Kentucky, and was a non-factor for most of the game, despite play all but 2 minutes in the game. Harrison has size and skill, but couldn't get anything going either for himself or his teammates. The good news is he could still get into the paint, but he didn't have a plan when he got there, but that will come, and his shooting stroke looked good as well, another good sign. Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Brandon Knight, and Marquis Teague all struggled early on too, though it is troubling how few flashes Harrison showed. Even more troubling was bad body language, clear lack of effort on some plays, and the fact that Keith Appling had a huge game while being primarily defended by Harrison. With Dante Exum and Marcus Smart firmly entrenched ahead of him, Harrison will have a lot of work to do to get back into the top 10, but the ability is there.

Aaron Harrison, SG (6-6, 218)

If Andrew Harrison had a bad game, his twin Aaron's game was a downright disaster. He only played 18 minutes, went 1-7 from the floor and missed all 5 of his threes and struggled defensively. He has great size for a wing, but doesn't appear to be very explosive, and if the jumper isn't falling, Harrison is rendered fairly ineffective. His brother is a high level NBA prospect because he can play point guard, but as a shooting guard who's best weapon is his jumper, but isn't an elite shooter, Aaron just doesn't project as special as an NBA wing. At his size, Harrison should be a good defender, but Gary Harris had his way with him. If he can become a better driver and shooter, Harrison might become a first round pick after another season or so, but right now I don't see it.

Alex Poythress, F (6-8, 239)

Alex Poythress had unreasonable expectations last season, to which he didn't live up. This was exacerbated by the fact that everyone else on the team struggled too, forcing a larger offensive role upon Poythress than he was ready for. So far this season, and in this game, Poythress has played within himself and played very hard. He didn't do much offensively, (7 points, 2-6 FG, 3-4 FT) which is an issue, but Poythress showed he has several skills that could make him an effective NBA role player, with the upside for more down the line. Poythress is physically very impressive, taller than his listed height, more like 6-9, with long arms 7-0+ wingspan, an NBA body, and elite athleticism. With those physical gifts, he should be, and is, an excellent rebounder, especially this season where he is averaging 10.7 boards in only 22.7 minutes a game. These tools also make him a very good defender with the chance to be elite. Poythress has also shown an ability to make corner 3s, which could allow him to space the floor as power forward on offense in the NBA. That, plus the defense and rebounding, would make Poythress a valuable player at the next level, and worthy of a first round pick.

Willie Cauley-Stein, C (7-0, 244)

Despite how impressive Willie Cauley-Stein looks, I always come away unimpressed when watching him against non-cupcake opponents, with the game against Michigan State being no exception. Cauley-Stein is tall, long and athletic, he looks like a young Tyson Chandler, and there is undeniable upside, if teams are willing to be very patient. Offensively, he is limited to lobs and put backs, which is expected, but it the lack of fundamentals and basketball IQ that is the big problem, he can be an excellent shotblocker, but is out of position a lot, and he relies on too much on athleticism to grab rebounds instead of boxing out. These are things that the team that drafts him will have to work on, but an overall feel for the game can only come through playing in games.

Dakari Johnson, C (7-0, 265) and Marcus Lee, PF (6-9, 215) 
Because he is the backup to Cauley-Stein, Dakari Johnson hasn't got a ton of minutes (13.3 a game), and is therefore more of a prospect for future drafts beyond 2014. The same can be said for Marcus Lee, who has the unenviable task of playing behind Randle. Johnson has terrific size and strength, but isn't an elite athlete. He makes his living in the paint and is very good scoring around the basket, with a pretty nice skill level and a high IQ, he is also a very good rebounder. Johnson reminds me of a bigger, rawer Jared Sullinger. I would like to see Kentucky, when Randle is resting, play Johnson with Poythress, Young, and the Harrison's spreading the floor to give him some space on the block. If he comes back next year and plays starters minutes, Johnson could be a top 10 pick in 2015. Lee is different from Johnson, he doesn't have quite the skills or developed body, but but he is long and very athletic, the kind of physical profile that, with some work in the weight room and on the court, gets NBA teams really excited.  

Scouting the Champions Classic: Kansas

Andrew Wiggins, SF, (6-8, 200)

Foul trouble forced Wiggins to the bench for much of the first half, he only scored six points in brief minutes. In the second half however, he took over, scoring 16 points of his 22, including back-to-back baskets that sealed the win down the stretch. Wiggins was his typical explosive self, rising over everyone else for dunks and rebounds, while also showing of his elite second jump and first step on several drives to the basket. Most impressive was a clutch step-back jumper over Amile Jefferson, which will be the next evolution to his game, consistently in the jump-shot. Most impressive was Wiggins defense, he was the only Jayhawk to slow-down Jabari Parker and showed the kind of defensive acumen that lead many to believe he might be the best perimeter defender in the country. Wiggins did nothing to dissuade the notion that he is the favorite to be the top pick in the draft.

Joel Embiid, C, (7-0, 250)

As soon as he steps on the court, Embiid looks incredibly impressive. A huge physical specimen with very long arms (he measured with a 7-5 wingspan earlier this year) and an NBA body, Embiid looks like a lottery pick. He isn't a stiff either, he moves very well, is coordinated, and an explosive athlete. Basically, if you were drawing up an ideal NBA center, he would look like Embiid. Against Duke he showed why he is so highly regarded as well as how much work needs to be done. He is already a difference maker defensively and on the glass. He also showed nice patience and passing ability when trapped and double-teamed by Duke. The skills are there offensively as well a nice jumper, soft hands, and good touch but refinement is needed. Despite having only played for a few years, Embiid's game against Duke showed his huge upside, and a top 5-10 pick is not out of the question if he continues to progress.

Wayne Selden, G/F (6-5, 230)

Despite playing in the shadow of Wiggins hype, Selden created a lot of positive buzz over the summer and performed well in practices and scrimmages. Against Duke, he had a good game, showing both the potential and the areas of concern in his game. First the good, Selden is a physical specimen, extremely strong and well built for a guard, with long arms and above-average athleticism. He is always in attack mode, can overpower smaller opponents and draw fouls in bunches. The physical tools he has should make him a very good defender and rebounder. The concern with Selden that showed up in the Champions Classic was the fact that he can get out of control, take bad shots, and miss badly as well. He tends two force the action too much, but as a Freshman in his first game, over-aggressiveness is understandable. Seldon has some improvements to make, the jumper also needs work, but a top 10 pick isn't out of the question for Selden.

Perry Ellis, PF (6-8, 225)

After a disappointing Freshman season, Perry Ellis is off to a hot start and was down right unstoppable against Duke, scoring 24 points on 9/13 shooting, hitting his only 3 pointer, and going 5/6 from the line while also grabbing 9 boards. Ellis is a typical undersized college post player who is very skilled, but lacks the size, length, and athleticism to play power forward in the NBA. Because of that, Ellis will have to demonstrate and ability to play on the wing in the NBA. Hitting the 3 helps, but it was just the 4 attempt of his career. Ellis may not have much of a future in the NBA, but he could end up being one of  the best players in the country, while being very fun to watch at this level.

Tarik Black, F/C (6-9, 260)

After three under-achieving seasons at Memphis, Tarik Black transferred to Kansas and is their starting center, over Joel Embiid. When he is on the court, the strong, long, athletic, Black has always been a good rebounder and defensive player, but foul trouble has plagued him his whole career and that issue reared his ugly head against Duke, where he only played 6 minutes and committed 3 fouls. Unfortunately, the bell may be tolling for Black if his play doesn't improve and Embiid starts to live up to his massive potential.

Tank You Very Much: Potential Sixers Trades

It was common knowledge that this was going to be a massive rebuilding season for Philadelphia, starting with the trade of Jrue Holiday, that would set them up for a shot at a top 3 pick in a loaded 2014 draft. After a 3-0 start, it has been suggested that they might need to trade their 3 vets, Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young, and Evan Turner in an attempt to lock up a top pick. They are probably bad enough without doing that, but Michael Carter-Williams, Nerlens Noel, and picks are the only un-tradeable things in Philadelphia, so if they can acquire assets or young pieces for these three useful veterans, they should do it....

Spencer Hawes to the Los Angeles Clippers for Reggie Bullock

The Clippers will have to include a number of small contracts to make this deal work, but the crux of the deal is Hawes for Bullock. The Clippers have championship aspirations, but a big problem with depth at the center position. There are also questions about whether DeAndre Jordan can play in cruch time due to his abysmal foul shooting and limited offensive game. Hawes won't be an upgrade defensively, but he is a much better offensive player and basically a wash as a rebounder. Hawes is a very good midrange shooter, who at least so far this season is 6-12 through three games this season, while also being a very good passer. As a backup center and floor spacer who can close out games for the Clippers, Hawes would be perfect. As a bonus he is an expiring contract that won't lock them up long term. As an added bonus Byron Mullens wouldn never have to play an important minute for them ever again. For the Sixers the goal is to get worse this season and acquire long-term talent or assets, both of which they would accomplish with this trade. Bullock, the 25th overall pick in the 2013 draft won't have a role on the team the Clippers year, not with Jared Dudley and J.J. Redick on the roster, but has some nice potential as a three-and-D wing, which would fit well next to Carter-Williams, Noel, and whoever they get in the draft (Wiggins, Randle, Parker) with that skill-set. The Clippers also have their 2014 first round pick to include in the deal. Another possibility would be a three team trade that sent Dudley to another team (say, the Pelicans) with a youn asset or two heading to Philly (say, Austin Rivers). In this case the Clippers get Hawes and Bullock steps into Dudley's minutes. 

Thaddeus Young to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Kendrick Perkins

While it is starting to become clear that he Thunder are going to stubbornly hold on to Kendrick Perkins, they could still try to deal him to a tanking team. With Steven Adams playing well so far, plus the ability to play Nick Collison and Serge Ibaka at center, and Hasheem Thabeet able to fill in at least an average level, the Thunder won't be hurt at center by losing Perkins, but would get a huge upgrade on offense and another scorer to balance out their offense even more. Young is a layup machine who can also more than hold his own defensively at both forward spots. He can play alongside Durant at the 4 or in place of him at the 3 and be a sixth man or a starter, a more effective version of what they hoped Jeff Green would be. The Sixers would be getting $8 million off the books a year earlier (Perkins has 2 years remaining, Young 3) and a strong locker room presence, but little on court value, which would suit them fine as they tank. The Thunder can also sweeten the deal with the like of Perry Jones, Andre Roberson, Grant Jerrett's rights, or the rights to German big man Tibor Pleiss or Spainish guard Alex Abrines. The Thunder will have to see what they can do with their current lineup, but acquiring Young at the expense of only Perkins would be a huge boost for them. 

  

Evan Turner to the San Antonio Spurs for Matt Bonner, Nando de Colo, and the rights to Davis Bertans
This is a very un-Spurs-like move, but it is fun to speculate about, and could actually be a need, as well as a piece for their future. Whether the Spurs are in the market for a wing will depend on if Marco Belinelli pans out or not, so far, so good but he a track record of inconsistency. Turner is the superior talent who is finally playing up to his draft status, and does a number things that the Spurs would like: he competes defensively, is a high IQ player, a good passer and rebounder. Most importantly however, Turner can hit corner threes (38% last season) and make plays, which will help ease the burden on Manu Ginobili. Despite his rep as a shooter, Belinelli was actually terrible from the corners last season (27%), and pales in comparison to Turner in the playmaking department (21.0 assist ratio to Belinelli's 16.2). This is a very unlikely scenario, but if the Spurs think Turner could help them return to the title game, or be a part of their post-Big 3 rebuild, then dealing for him is something they would have to explore. Bonner and de Colo could be replaced with a number of different contracts, but since they are both expiring contracts, they work the best in the deal. The prize for the Sixers is Bertans, a sharp-shooting 20-year old Latvian forward who was drafted in the second round of the 2012 draft. The Spurs also have a number of other prospects (Livio Jean-Charles, Ryan Richards) and picks they could use in a deal.

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Ready to Take Off: Anthony Davis

In the Pelicans Saturday night win over the Charlotte Bobcats, Anthony Davis scored 25 points (9/13 FG, 7/8 FT), with 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 6 steals and 6 blocks. This remarkable performance is becoming par-for-the-course for Davis who is averaging 23.7 points, 13.3 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 2.7 steals on the young season. It's not just that the 2012 number 1 overall pick is putting up big numbers, he looks like his game has grown considerably since last season. We all know about the terrific hands, length, and athleticism that give Davis the ability to block shots and throw down outrageous alley-oops, but now the skill is starting to catch up to the elite physical ability. Part of his big improvement offensively has been his jumper, he hit 4-of-5 outside the paint from against Charlotte, and is shooting 50% from there this season. His stroke in general is improved, as demonstrated by his terrific 95% shooting from the free throw line so far this season. If his jumper continues to fall, it will open up his offense even more, allowing him to use his explosive first step to take slower bigs off the dribble from the high post. This quickness, along with more aggressiveness, strength, and seeking of contact this year, also allows Davis to draw more fouls, nearly doubling his total from 3.5 last year to 6.7 this. There is no reason that he shouldn't average 8+ free throws a game in time. Add to that his improved shooting, plus buckets of put-backs and of course alley-oops and you have a recipe for a very efficient and reliable offensive game. Defensively, we know Davis can block shots and has very active hands, but his ability to guard on the perimeter and switch, as well as guard in ISO situations are also becoming elite skills. That is why I think Davis fits better at power forward than center, because he causes so much havoc all over the floor when he plays there, but is limited when he plays center, not to mention the wear and tear having to check bigger players. What is even more amazing is that Davis is only 20 years old and has a ton of room for growth in both physically and in his abilities, despite being playing at an All-NBA caliber right now. If this level of growth continues, Davis could be a top 5-10 player in this league. The Pelicans have playoff asspirations and the talent to get there, but they need to be careful that ball-dominant players like Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, and Eric Gordon don't neglect Davis, because he is their best player.

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What's Up With The Nuggets?

Last season, the Nuggets won 57 games, grabbed the number three seed in the playoffs, and averaged 106.1 points a game, tops in the league* as well as having the 11th most efficient defense in the NBA. So far this season, they are 0-2, including losing on Friday for the first time at home in twenty-four games. Denver is scoring only 93 points a game (23rd in efficiency) while giving up 101.5 (20th in efficiency). Obviously this is a tiny sample-size that is hard to learn much from, but it bears out what is pretty clear on the court, this team is a mess right now and nothing like what it was last season. This isn't surprising considering all the changes they went through in the off-season, from the top of the organization on down. After GM Masai Ujiri left for Toronto, the Nuggets fired George Karl and hired Brian Shaw, a first time head coach who helped the turnaround in Indiana. They also allowed Andre Igoudala to leave in Free Agency, traded Kosta Koufos for Darrell Arthur, and signed Randy Foye, Nate Robinson, and J.J. Hickson. So far they have really looked like they are struggling to make the pieces fit together on both ends of the floor. Shaw, a discipline and defense oriented coach, has been given a number of undisciplined players who struggle on defense. JaVale McGee, who signed a four-year, $44 million deal last summer, was supposed to be a franchise player for them this year, but he logged only 10 and 13 minutes in Denver's first two games. Kenneth Faried, who became a star for them last season and started 80 games, was moved to the bench and had his role decreased. Andre Miller, who Karl came to rely on heavily, has also seen his minutes drop. These were all big parts of last year's team, relegated to minor roles so far. It is hard not to point to their defense as a reason for the decreased roles. But if Shaw doesn't want to play them, he is left with limited options and no real dynamic talent except Ty Lawson, until Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari return from injury. The other issue is that Faried and Miller have two years left on their deals, while McGee has three and Miller, who is 37 and hasn't had a ton of playoff success potentially wanting to bolt for a better team and more minutes, and he does have a reputation as being a little bit of a trouble-maker in the past. Shaw could turn this all around and the team could look completely different in a couple weeks, but the possibility of a pretty big mess is laying in the weeds right now. All is not lost in Denver however, Chandler should be back soon and Gallinari could be back as soon as soon as January, but the issue remains that the Nuggets have a lot of pieces at high prices that their new coach doesn't seem thrilled with. If they continue to struggle, there could be some trades coming.

*They were 5th in offensive efficiency.

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He's back!

The buzz after last night's Bulls-Knicks game was all about Derrick Rose. Playing in his first game at home in over a year, Rose struggled for much of the night, but hit the game winner in dramatic fashion. However, there was another return last night, the return to form of Tyson Chandler. After winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2011-2012, Chandler battled through a debilitating bulging disk injury, missed 16 games, lost weight and wasn't nearly the defensive force he had been in previous years. New York was actually better on defense with Chandler off the court last season (.513 eFG on to .502 off) while in his DPOY season, he and the team were much better on that end (.480 on, .493 off). However, in the Knicks opening night game against the Bucks, and even more so against the Bulls, Chandler looked back to elite defensive form, almost always in the right spot, making life particularly tough for Rose who had to contend with his long arms and massive frame all night. Chandler blocked four shots, but hasn't put up the huge block numbers you expect from a top defensive center, never averaging more than 1.8 blocks a game. Instead, Chandler protects the rim with size and elite positioning. Another benefit of this is it keeps his fouls down while allowing him to draw more offensive fouls on opponents. Also, so far this season he has looked like his old self defending pick-and-rolls, which is crucial in today's NBA that uses that as its bread and butter. At least so far, the Knicks offense doesn't look as potent as last years, which means they may have to lean more on a their defense, to which Chandler is crucial. Chandler is almost a lock to miss some games with injury, he's played 80 games exactly once in twelve seasons and has averaged 63 games the last five.* What matters is that he is healthy enough to play at a high level when he does plays and can play at that level in the playoffs. The Knicks, who have floundered in the playoffs the last two seasons, are resting their hopes on it.

Some more thoughts on Bulls-Knicks:

While he isn't as crucial of a player as Chandler, Taj Gibson also looked like he was back in top form after battling a knee injury and missing 17 games last year. Gibson frequently closes out games for the Bulls because he is an elite defender at the power forward position. A healthy Gibson means a lot to the Chicago bench and crunch-time lineups. 

Rose really struggled from the field, but he was getting where he wanted for the most part, he just needs to get everything back in rhythm as he regains his elite finishing ability. It will also help when he starts drawing more fouls, the referees were letting quite a bit of contact go uncalled for some reason. If Rose looks this way in game 40, I might worry. In game 2, he is in good shape.

I liked the posting up of Jimmy Butler the Bulls were doing, at 6-7, 220 he has a distinct size advantage over most two guards. Chicago should get some easy buckets this way, whether though Butler in the post or action off of it.

It was nice to see Andrei Bargnani his some shots, if he can regain his stroke (but mostly his confidence) it should help the Knicks offense, his defense and rebounding are still a worry but that is another reason why Chandler is so important to New York.

*Not including the lockout-shortened season in which he played all 62 games.

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