Sunday, November 17, 2013

Scouting the Champions Classic: Kentucky Wildcats

Julius Randle, PF (6-9, 250)
Coming into the season, there were many who considered Julius Randle to be a better prospect than Andrew Wiggins, and while I wouldn't say that necessarily (elite, different, not better), Randle is clearly one of the top three prospects in this draft and definitely in consideration for the number 1 overall pick. Randle, who was dominant in his first two games against weak competition, struggled mightily in the first half against Michigan State scoring only 4 points, (1-5 FG, 2-2 FT), 4 rebounds, and 4 turnovers. The second half was another story however, Randle was dominant and brought Kentucky back into the game almost single-handedly. He scored 23 points (8-9 FG, 7-13 FT) after the break, as well as grabbing 9 boards but also committing 4 more turnovers. Randle likes to face up, and is good at it, but he is basically unstoppable in the post at this level, which is where he needs to spend all of his time. He is an elite rebounder as well, particularly offensively, and projects as a 20-10 player in the NBA and certainly a top 3 pick. Randle does need to cut the turnovers, (4 per game is too much) and knock down free throws more consistently, but he is already one of the best players in the country.

James Young, G/F (6-6, 215)
After the whole class had committed, James Young was often the overlooked elite recruit on Kentucky's roster, but his stock got a big boost over the summer, with many thinking he was the best prospect on the team behind Randle. Young had an up and down game against Michigan State, like Randle, he dominated one half (15 points on 5-7 FG, 3-5 from 3, 2-3 FT in the first), and struggled in the second (4 points, 2-9 FG, 0-6 from three, 0-2 FT). He really carried Kentucky that one half, scoring almost half of their points, and kept the score from getting out of hand. That was impressive, the second half was not however, but considering Youmg was the only Kentucky guard to show up at all, all the pressure was on him to stretch the floor and create from the perimeter. Obviously, it would have been nice for him to step up to the challenge for the whole game, but it is easy to forget that this is an 18 year-old playing in his third career game. Young isn't an elite prospect, but he has a chance to be a very good one, and a top 10-15 pick.

Andrew Harrison, PG (6-6, 215)
In his first chance to impress on a big stage, Andrew Harrison disappointed big time. The raw numbers don't look terrible (11 points, 3-6 FG, 4-4 FT, 1-1 from deep, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 4 turnovers) but he was unimpressive, struggling to initiate any kind of offense for Kentucky, and was a non-factor for most of the game, despite play all but 2 minutes in the game. Harrison has size and skill, but couldn't get anything going either for himself or his teammates. The good news is he could still get into the paint, but he didn't have a plan when he got there, but that will come, and his shooting stroke looked good as well, another good sign. Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Brandon Knight, and Marquis Teague all struggled early on too, though it is troubling how few flashes Harrison showed. Even more troubling was bad body language, clear lack of effort on some plays, and the fact that Keith Appling had a huge game while being primarily defended by Harrison. With Dante Exum and Marcus Smart firmly entrenched ahead of him, Harrison will have a lot of work to do to get back into the top 10, but the ability is there.

Aaron Harrison, SG (6-6, 218)
If Andrew Harrison had a bad game, his twin Aaron's game was a downright disaster. He only played 18 minutes, went 1-7 from the floor and missed all 5 of his threes and struggled defensively. He has great size for a wing, but doesn't appear to be very explosive, and if the jumper isn't falling, Harrison is rendered fairly ineffective. His brother is a high level NBA prospect because he can play point guard, but as a shooting guard who's best weapon is his jumper, but isn't an elite shooter, Aaron just doesn't project as special as an NBA wing. At his size, Harrison should be a good defender, but Gary Harris had his way with him. If he can become a better driver and shooter, Harrison might become a first round pick after another season or so, but right now I don't see it.

Alex Poythress, F (6-8, 239)
Alex Poythress had unreasonable expectations last season, to which he didn't live up. This was exacerbated by the fact that everyone else on the team struggled too, forcing a larger offensive role upon Poythress than he was ready for. So far this season, and in this game, Poythress has played within himself and played very hard. He didn't do much offensively, (7 points, 2-6 FG, 3-4 FT) which is an issue, but Poythress showed he has several skills that could make him an effective NBA role player, with the upside for more down the line. Poythress is physically very impressive, taller than his listed height, more like 6-9, with long arms 7-0+ wingspan, an NBA body, and elite athleticism. With those physical gifts, he should be, and is, an excellent rebounder, especially this season where he is averaging 10.7 boards in only 22.7 minutes a game. These tools also make him a very good defender with the chance to be elite. Poythress has also shown an ability to make corner 3s, which could allow him to space the floor as power forward on offense in the NBA. That, plus the defense and rebounding, would make Poythress a valuable player at the next level, and worthy of a first round pick.

Willie Cauley-Stein, C (7-0, 244)
Despite how impressive Willie Cauley-Stein looks, I always come away unimpressed when watching him against non-cupcake opponents, with the game against Michigan State being no exception. Cauley-Stein is tall, long and athletic, he looks like a young Tyson Chandler, and there is undeniable upside, if teams are willing to be very patient. Offensively, he is limited to lobs and put backs, which is expected, but it the lack of fundamentals and basketball IQ that is the big problem, he can be an excellent shotblocker, but is out of position a lot, and he relies on too much on athleticism to grab rebounds instead of boxing out. These are things that the team that drafts him will have to work on, but an overall feel for the game can only come through playing in games.

Dakari Johnson, C (7-0, 265) and Marcus Lee, PF (6-9, 215) 
Because he is the backup to Cauley-Stein, Dakari Johnson hasn't got a ton of minutes (13.3 a game), and is therefore more of a prospect for future drafts beyond 2014. The same can be said for Marcus Lee, who has the unenviable task of playing behind Randle. Johnson has terrific size and strength, but isn't an elite athlete. He makes his living in the paint and is very good scoring around the basket, with a pretty nice skill level and a high IQ, he is also a very good rebounder. Johnson reminds me of a bigger, rawer Jared Sullinger. I would like to see Kentucky, when Randle is resting, play Johnson with Poythress, Young, and the Harrison's spreading the floor to give him some space on the block. If he comes back next year and plays starters minutes, Johnson could be a top 10 pick in 2015. Lee is different from Johnson, he doesn't have quite the skills or developed body, but but he is long and very athletic, the kind of physical profile that, with some work in the weight room and on the court, gets NBA teams really excited.  

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