It's hard to write more about Andrew Wiggins that hasn't already been said over and over again. Yes, he is one of th top prospects in a long time; yes, he is a freak athlete with considerable skill; yes, he is a potential franchise changer; no he's not as good as LeBron or Kevin Durant. Wiggins will have a ton of attention this whole season, and how he deals with the hype will be important, because the talent is undeniable.
2. Julius Randle, PF Kentucky Fr. (6-9, 248)
Julius Randle puts the "power" in power forward, an elite physical specimen with strength and explosiveness. Randle isn't just dominating smaller players, he has low post skills as well as a very good face the basket game from which he can drive or shoot. Randle will be the best player on Kentucky next year, now whether the team functions that way will remain to be seen.
3. Aaron Gordon, PF Arizona Fr. (6-9, 212)
A walking highlight reel, Aaron Gordon will get many, many comparisons to Blake Griffin for his high flying dunks this season at Arizona, and like Griffin, Gordon is isn't just a dunker. Gordon plays all out, all the time and is a terrific rebounder and defensive player. He also has a high basketball IQ, is a good passer, and the kind of player who teammates and coaches love. His skills are developing, and he wants to play small forward at Arizona, but I think power forward is his best position.
4. Jabari Parker, SF Duke Fr. (6-8, 241)
While he isn't on quite the same level as Wiggins, Jabari Parker is still one of the best wing prospects to come along in the last couple years. Parker can do it all on the floor, shoot from 3, post up, drive to the basket, score in the mid-range, rebound, pass, and handle the ball. Parker also has a very high basketball IQ and just knows how to play the game. The issue is he isn't an elite athlete, though his 7-0 wingspan helps some in that regard.
5. Joel Embiid, C Kansas Fr. (7-0, 240)
As big of a wow physical specimen as you can imagine, Joel Embiid is huge, and has a massive 7-5 wingspan. What's even more scary is Embiid is still growing into his body and could be absolutely massive in a couple years. Embiid dominates defensively and on the glass exactly how you'd expect someone of his size to do, while offensively he has an emerging skill-set as both a low and high post player.
6. Marcus Smart, PG Oklahoma State So. (6-4, 225)
Marcus Smart defies "box score scouting" more so than any other prospect in this draft. His shooting percentages aren't great, nor is the AST/TO, but Smart is simply the kind of player who makes winning plays. A big power guard, Smart's game needs refinement, particularly his point guard skills and shooting, but the defense, motor, leadership, and intangibles he brings to the table are impressive. However Smart needs to improve on his Freshman season, or teams could sour on him.
7. Dante Exum, PG Australia (6-6, 188)
The rawest of this cluster of elite point guard prospects, Dante Exum also the most physically gifted by far. Huge at 6-6, Exum is super quick and athletic with a great handle. He can get by almost any defender already and is a creative, acrobatic finisher. Exum is still learning how to be a point guard, but the ability is there and his jumper needs work, but the sky is the limit for this 17 year old. Whether he stays in Australia or goes to college in America is yet to be determined.
8. Andrew Harrison, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-5, 207)
Andrew Harrison has a huge opportunity to either put himself in top pick consideration or really hurt his stock, depending on how Kentucky performs next season. Harrison will have the keys to one of the best collections of talent ever assembled in college basketball, if they gel, make a championship run like the 2011-12 team, and Harrison plays well, he'll be the top point guard taken, if they fall apart like the 2012-13, he'll take a ton of the blame.
9. Montrezl Harrell, PF Louisville So. (6-8, 235)
After performing very well in a limited role last season, Montrezl Harrell will step into the starting lineup and get big minutes this year. Harrell has an NBA body with room to grow to go with elite length and explosiveness. Harrell is a terrific rebounder and defensive player who also has an emerging offensive skill set as a post scorer. Harrell has the physical tools, motor, and demeanor to have a dominant season in an expanded role.
10. James Young, G/F Kentucky Fr. (6-7, 215)
Of all the players on this loaded Kentucky team, James Young may be the most important because he's should be the main wing scorer and creator. He certainly has the talent to excel in that role: Young is a big wing with athleticism and the ability to score from anywhere on the floor. The biggest concern for Young is that there may be too many mouths to feed in Kentucky and young gets lost in shuffle with no defined role.
11. Chris Walker, SF Florida Fr. (6-9, 206)
In a draft with Wiggins, Randle, Gordon, and Harrell, all elite athletes, Chris Walker stands right up next to the athletically. He can fly up and down the floor with sprinters speed and absolutely explode at the basket for dunks, rebounds, and blocks. Walker needs some polish offensively, particularly his ball handling and jumper, but the tools are off the charts. There is also some question as to whether he's a 3 or 4.
12. Gary Harris, SG Michigan State So. (6-4, 210)
One of the best kept secrets in college basketball last season, Gary Harris was one of the best players in the country when healthy. He is a good, strong athlete and a great shooter with deep range. Harris is also a good ball handler and a terrific defender. Shouldering more of a role this season should get him more recognition and a chance at the lottery.
13. Glenn Robinson III, G/F Michigan So. (6-7, 211)
After a promising Freshman season at Michigan, Glenn Robinson III decided to return to school where he'll be the focus of the Wolverine offense. Robinson III is a physically developed and athletic wing who converted 2 pointers at a very high rate (65%) but needs to work on his three point shooting (32%) and ball handling. If he continues his upward trajectory, Robinson should establish himself as a star and potential lottery pick.
14. Mario Hezonja, SG Croatia (6-6, 200)
"Super Mario" is a very tough player to peg. He is supremely talented, a big, explosive scoring guard when score from anywhere on the floor. Add to that a high basketball IQ and the fact he's only 18 and you have one of the best European prospects in a long time. However, he also struggles to play team basketball sometimes, coming off as selfish. If Hezonja learns to play a team game, he could go top 5.
15. Dario Saric, SF Croatia (6-10, 225)
Dario Saric pulled out of the 2013 draft, where he likely would have been a top 10 pick, which was risky considering his stock might drop considerably if he doesn't show enough improvement. Saric is a point forward with very good ball handling skills plus outstanding court vison, passing ability, and feel for the game. He is limited defensively however, and a poor shooter. These are the areas he must improve in going forward.
16. Jarnell Stokes, PF Tennessee Jr. (6-9, 256)
One of my favorite prospects in this draft, Jarnell Stokes is a warrior in the paint, a low post player who plays with physicality and strength. He also has great length and tremendous hands. What makes him stand out though is he is very quick for his size and has a developing jumper. Stokes isn't perfect, he plays below the rim and may struggle against length but his combination of post game, rebounding, and the fact that he'll be a 20 year-old junior on draft night is intruiging to say the least.
17. Jerami Grant, SF Syracuse So. (6-9, 215)
As far as potential goes, it's hard to top Jerami Grant. Grant is a freak athlete with a huge 7-3+ wingspan and an amazing motor. He is a potential elite defender who can block shots and crturnovers. Offensively, he needs polish but the tools are there to be a good shooter and ball handler. After a limited role last season, Grant is expected to start and play major minutes for Syracuse.
18. Dakari Johnson, C Kentucky Fr. (6-11, 265)
The least heralded of the big prospects being brought in by Kentucky, Dakari Johnson may very well the biggest sleeper in this draft. He is a basically a bigger, less polished Jared Sullinger: a below the rim scorer, low post scorer with long arms and great hands. He is a terrific rebounder and has high basketball IQ. Defense is a question, as is now he deals with athletes, but talent is there to be a lottery pick.
19. Mitch McGary, PF Michigan So. (6-10, 265)
Mitch McGary had a great run to close the season, but he should have come out after his Freshman season and been a top 10 pick, because it's unlikely he reaches those heights again. This is a much better draft, and McGary's offense relied a ton on Trey Burke. Also he will be a 22 year old Sophomore at the time of the next draft. He still tough and has a great motor, but I think he missed a big opportunity.
20. Willie Cauley-Stein, C Kentucky So. (7-0, 240)
Willie Cauley-Stein had the unenviable task of replacing Nerlens Noel and struggled in the role. He is long, athletic, and a potentially excellent defensive player due to his physicality and tools. However, his offense leave a lot to be desired, limited mainly to dunks and short jumpers. I could see a Tyson Chandler-like career for him, but why is he so low in these rankings? I think Dakari Johnson steals the show at center.
21. San Dekker, SF Wisconsin So. (6-8, 220)
It's been a long time since a Badgers player has had the potential lottery pick on their team, but Sam Dekker is just that. He is very skilled, a good ball handler and terrific shooter, but what sets him apart is his athleticis and explosiveness. He has a high IQ and was very productive in a limited role last season, which will expand greatly this season.
22. Adreian Payne, PF Michigan State Sr. (6-10, 240)
Adreian Payne took a big risk coming back for his senior season, because he gave up being a potential lottery pick last season and could fall out of the first round if he doesn't improve, as he'll be 23 at the next draft. He's physically gifted and fairly skilled, particularly as a shooter, yet has always left something to be desired on the court. If he dominates next season, a late lottery pick is possible.
23. Alex Poythess, SF Kentucky So. (6-8, 230)
Poythess had flashes of greatness as a Freshman, but overall showed a lack of assertiveness and skill that showed he was more athlete (and wheat an athlete!) than player at this point. If Poythress can buy into being a power forward full time, ala Terrence Jones, I like his future much more than as a 3. Also, Poythress won't have nearly as much pressure on next year's loaded Kentucky team.
24. Isaiah Austin, PF Baylor So. (7-1, 220)
After struggling to find a role outside of spotting up, Isaiah Austin started to find his groove towards the end of the season and could have a big breakout next season statistically. However, his stock will depend more on whether he can bulk up and improve his shooting. If he can do those things, in addition to all the rest of his versatile game, and he'll be lottery bound.
25. Semaj Christon, PG Xavier So. (6-3, 190)
If you like super quick and athletic point guards who can play a little crazy, look no further than Semaj Christon. If Christon can cut down his turnovers and improve his three point shooting, the sky is the limit, because he is very talented on both ends of the floor. A move to a higher profile in the new Big East will also help boost his stock.
26. Aaron Harrison, SG Kentucky Fr. (6-5, 210)
Aaron Harrison is the twin brother of potential lottery pick, Andrew Harrison, but isn't as highly regarded simply because he is a shooting guard and not a point like his brother. Still, he has a lot of natural talent as an athletic scorer and shooter. Harrison's role at Kentucky this season will likely be as more of a spot up shooter, so his stock my not sky-rocket.
27. Rasheed Sulaimon, SG Duke So. (6-4, 185)
Rasheed Sulaimon will likely be the best bench player in the country this season unless Rodney Hood's injury is more serious than expected. Sulaimon is a very good defender and shooter with a sky high basketball IQ, terrific motor and quick first step. He is a little undersized, but as a rock solid role player who helps his team win in a number of ways, you can't beat Sulaimon.
28. Kasey Hill, PG Florida Fr. (6-1, 175)
The key to Kasey Hill's draft stock is his jumper. If he can consistently knock down shots when teams go under screens, he could be a top ten pick because he's got the rest. Hill is slightly undersized for a point guard, but he is pure point guard that is very quick, an excellent penetrator, and pick-and-roll player who can find teammates and finish at the rim. Hill's playing time will depend alot on Scottie Wilbekin, whowas recently suspended indefinitely.
29. Keith Frazier, SG SMU Fr. (6-6, 190)
If you're looking for an off the radar Freshman who could put up huge numbers, Keith Frazier could be your guy. He is stepping onto a mediocre SMU team where he'll be the top recruit they've had in recent memory. Frazier is an amazing shooter who can hit shots from way beyond NBA range. He is also a solid ball-handler and finisher. He could put up 17-20 points a game on a bad team, ala Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
30. Noah Vonleh, PF Indiana Fr. (6-10, 240)
Another one of the big Freshman sleepers as far as NBA prospects go, Noah Vonleh is in line for a lot of playing time next season and has the ability to be a very good player right away. He has plus size and very long arms, as well as above-average athleticism. Skill-wise, Vonleh is a versatile, hogh motor, do it all player. He has a good handle, developing jumpshot, can pass, rebound, and block shots. He's sort of the power forward version of Otto Porter.
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