Wednesday, June 29, 2016

5 Potential Bargain Free Agents

There is likely going to be crazy money thrown around the NBA world starting July 1st, but that doesn't mean that there still won't be some bargains on the market. Here is a starting five of potential bargain contracts that could turn into consistent contributors...

C: Tyler Zeller, Boston Celtics, Age: 26 (Restricted)
Zeller was excellent during the 2014-15 season, but fell out of the rotation the next season and is now entering restricted free agency with a real chance of moving teams, especially since the Celtics appear to be targeting the likes of Dwight Howard. In 2014-15, Zeller played in all 82 games and averaged 17.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per 36 minutes, shooting .549% from the field and .823% from the line. Zeller's best attributes are his ability to run the floor and be a high efficiency finisher in the pick-and-roll. He probably isn't good enough defensively to be a full-time starter, but could be a high usage backup helping to anchor the offense of a uptempo, pick-and-roll heavy second unit. Brooklyn, Utah, Indiana, Charlotte, Washington, Dallas, Houston, and New Orleans are in need of depth at center and could look to Zeller as an affordable option with some upside.

PF: Jon Leuer, Phoenix Suns, Age: 27
Leuer doesn't look like an effective NBA player, and especially not an above-average defensive player (and not just because he is white) but in fact that is just what he is. Last season, Leuer played in 67 games and averaged 16.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 2.1 assists per 36 minutes and is a career .479/.375/.718 shooter. Even more impressive, Leuer has graded out as a plus defensively, despite the fact that he played in a train wreck of a team in Phoenix last season. He might not be a starting level player, but Leuer can be an integral part of an effective second unit. Leuer will basically be on a bargain basement contract and could fit any team that needs a little bit of shooting and solid defense from the big man spots.

SF: Dorell Wright, Miami Heat, Age: 30
Believe it or not, it has been 12 years since Dorell Wright entered the NBA and he has bounced around the league, including a year in China, but is still just 30 years old and can be a contributor as a shooter off the bench that has some defensive flexibility. For his career, Wright is a .365% shooter and while not a traditional wing stopper, is at least an average defender with the size at 6-9 to work in a switching style of defense. Wright could be signable for as low as the veteran minimum and be a shooter off the bench with at least average defense. There can never be too much shooting in the league, especially from the wings and every team in the NBA could use more. Wright may be limited offensively, but the skill he offers at the likely price is enough for any team.

SG: E'Twuan Moore, Chicago Bulls, Age: 27
Like all the players on this list, "solid" is the best way to describe Moore, he doesn't have a ton of upside but is good enough to be a versatile, impactful bench player. Moore is a combo guard that can play a little point but is probably best suited as an off guard that can function as a secondary creator. Moore is a career .369% three-point shooter and an average to above-average defensive player at both guard spots. Again, nothing flashy but Moore is a depth piece that can provide consistent guard play off the bench in a league that has fewer better than average guards than you might expect. Chicago shouldn't let Moore go, but teams like New York, Sacramento, Brooklyn, Orlando, Washington, Dallas, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Detroit, Houston, New Orleans, and many more could look to shore up their depth with a player like Moore, that is how broad his appeal is.

PG: Jerryd Bayless, Milwaukee Bucks, Age: 27
Bayless is a known commodity for the most part, a scoring combo guard that has never quite performed up to his talent but has quietly been a good backup because of his shot creation skills. Even more quietly has been the improvement of his jumper, which was once seen as a weakness but is now a weapon, to the point he shot .437% from three last season. While he is sure to regress from that number, there is no reason he can't settle in as an above-average shooter with the ability to break down defenses and beef up the scoring off of the bench of team that maybe has another distributor at a non-point guard position for an inexpensive price.

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Friday, June 24, 2016

2016 NBA Draft: Phoenix Suns Draft Review

Current 2016-17 Roster
PG: Eric Bledsoe/Brandon Knight/Tyler Ulis
SG: Devin Booker/Archie Goodwin/John Jenkins
SF: P.J. Tucker/T.J. Warren
PF: Jared Dudley/Dragan Bender/Marquese Chriss
C: Alex Len/Tyson Chandler/Alan Williams

Free Agents
PF Jon Leuer
SF Chase Budinger
PG Ronnie Price
PF Mirza Teletovic

Who They Acquired
04. Dragan Bender, F/C Maccabi Tel Aviv
Despite their proclivity to search for quick fixes, Robert Sarver's Suns made the correct decision and drafted the best prospect available, despite the fact that he won't be able to step in from day one and be a starting level contributor. Bender is a wonderful prospect for the modern NBA and the exact type of player the high usage, guard heavy Suns need.

09. Marquese Chriss, PF Washington
The Suns traded their latter two of three first round picks and the draft rights to Bogdan Bogdanovic to move up from 13 to 9 and select Chriss, whom was in play starting at three and represented the clear end of a tier. Chriss is loaded with potential but really needs time to develop and learn the game. The physical talent and raw offensive skill are obvious, but the lack of feel and experience are just as well.

34. Tyler Ulis, PG Kentucky
Despite buzz that he would be a first round pick, logic won out and no one drafted a sub-150 pound guard with a first round pick. In the second round, as a clear backup or even third guard, Ulis is much more palatable. Ulis is the third point guard on the Suns roster and believe it or not, the fifth Kentucky guard on Phoenix's roster.

How They Fit
Bender is exactly the type of player the Suns need, a low-usage player that is completely content to do the little things, spacing the floor, passing, and defending on the perimeter while players like Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, Devin Booker, and TJ Warren soak up offensive possessions. Bender is an ideal modern NBA big man who can play in a switching defense, space the floor, and be a ball-mover offensively. His rookie year, Bender should probably just play 15-20 minutes a game as he develops his body and adjusts to the NBA game. Once he is able to play starters minutes, there is a ton you can do with Bender, including playing both sides of the pick and roll as either ball-handler or screener, where he can pop or roll. Defensively, Bender will likely need a strong rim protector next to him, because his strengths defensively lie more in his ability to guard on the perimeter and switch. Perhaps it will change as his body develops, but currently Bender is just average on the glass, so a center and wings/guards that can rebound would be a benefit. Alex Len has shown flashes of that level of rebounding and defense but the jury is still out regarding whether or not he can become that guy.
Chriss shares some of the same weaknesses as Bender, namely his troubles on the glass, so pairing him with players who are good rebounders like Warren, PJ Tucker, and Bledsoe would be advantageous. Chriss is so good getting up and down the floor that he would be a real threat in a uptempo offense where he can get out and run. Chriss needs to develop his feel, instincts, and polish but the flashes he gives show a forward that can attack off the dribble and shoot from the outside. He could be a devastating pick-and-roll player due to his smooth athleticism and explosiveness as a roll-man or popping for a jumper, once his jumper get consistent. Further away yet is an ability to score in isolation, the tools are definitely there but serious refinement is needed going forward as he learns actual moves and builds his experience. All of this might be a few years away, but the reward of patient development could lead to a devastating offensive player with serious switchability on defense. Chriss might spend most of his time in the D-League, as he probably won't be ready for the big team quite yet, especially considering his very high foul rate. The question of long-term fit with Bender and Chriss comes down to whether or not Bender can play center eventually, which will likely be determined by how his body fills out. Still, as more and more teams turn to small-ball lineups, it's hard to see Bender being punished too severely but a lack of strength, especially since if you have Bender and Chriss, you are probably switching everything anyways so that would mitigate many of those issues.
Ulis is a player tailor made for backup or third point guard because he is too physically small (not just short, small) to be effective against starters, but his ability to run pick-and-roll means that when he is on the floor you are going to have an effective offense, even if he really struggled to defend anyone with size. If Knight isn't traded and Ronnie Price is brought back, I would keep Ulis in the D-League for much of the season so he can build chemistry with Chriss. Defensively, Ulis defintely gives tremendous effort but 5-10, 150 he is little better than a traffic cone in the NBA, though he is good picking up steals. You'd want to play a big guard with Ulis to cover up but his utter lack of size and strength would hurt your ability to switch. The question with Ulis is how his intangibles, his leadership and work ethic, can have an affect, if any.

What They Need Going Forward
First and foremost, the Suns need to solve their logjam at center and guard, Alex Len and Tyson Chandler are completely redundant and cannot be played together. Whether by trade, buyout, or stretch it is time for Chandler to move on, presumably to the contender he desires. If Chandler is moved, Alan Williams should be given his shot as the backup, but the Suns should still look for depth, particularly an athletic big that can move and defend the rim. At guard, the Suns have four players that are best with the ball in the hands and a fifth, Devin Booker, that will need plenty of possessions himself. Whether it's Goodwin, Knight, or even Bledsoe, the Suns need to find balance to their roster and get some lower usage wings to compliment their ball-dominant players. At small forward, the Suns have two guys who are probably better at power forward and might not be starter quality, while at power forward there is only Chriss and Bender, neither of whom are ready to play starters minutes. So either the Suns need to move Tucker and Warren to power forward and acquire a small forward or they need to find a power forward. Even with Warren and Tucker there, depth will be needed at both spots. Phoenix signed Jared Dudley to a reasonable deal that will likely have him playing power forward, but they could use another combo forward, perhaps Maurice Harkless. To maximize their current roster and help their young players the most, Phoenix should look for shooters at the forward spots that can create space for Len posting up and their ball-dominant guards.

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2016 NBA Draft: Brooklyn Nets Draft Review

Current 2016-17 Roster
PG: Isaiah Whitehead
SG: Bojan Bogdanovic/Caris LeVert/Sean Kilpatrick
SF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
PF: Chris McCullough
C: Brook Lopez

Free Agents
SG Sergey Karasev
PF Thomas Robinson
C Henry Sims
PG Donald Sloan
PG Shane Larkin (Player Option)
SG Wayne Ellington (Player Option)
PF Willie Reed (Restricted)
SG Markel Brown (Restricted) 

Who They Acquired
20. Caris LeVert, SG Michigan
The Nets traded Thad Young for this pick and took a serious risk in LeVert, who's leg and foot injury history is quite terrifying. When healthy, LeVert is a very talented wing that can really shoot and has played as some point guard in his career. Without injuries LeVert would be a likely lottery pick. However, even if you take away the injuries LeVert isn't a lock to be a hit, he is a bad defender, lacks toughness, and might be a product of Michigan's spread out system (ala Nik Stauskas and Trey Burke). The Nets are taking a huge risk with a rare resource (for them) at a point where they could have gotten a more bankable return. 

42. Isaiah Whitehead, G Seton Hall
The Nets took a solid gamble in the second round with Brooklyn native Whitehead, a talented combo guard that can really shoot with extended range. Despite strength and quickness, Whitehead is a poor inside the arc scorer, shooting 39% from two point range and a terrible 47% at the rim. The question is, can he be a point guard and more than just shooter off the bench that can make some flashy passes?

How They Fit
One of the most appealing aspects of LeVert's jack-of-all-trades skillset is that he easily fits into most every team as a role player because of his ability to shoot, handle the ball, and pass. You could use him as secondary ball-handler alongside a more ball-dominant point point guard or as a co-lead guard with more of a combo guard. Due his shooting ability, LeVert projects to be a dangerous pick-and-roll threat, especially from the wing spot, so playing him with a good screener/roll man would make for a dangerous second unit offense. LeVert's defense is questionable, so I like his pairing with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson on the wing, who is a strong defensive player but poor shooter. LeVert and Hollis-Jefferson compliment each other well. I would also want a good defensive point guard playing with LeVert as well, though it might not be a necessity. 

Whitehead is a shot-creating combo guard with deep shooting range, so in that respect he actually makes sense with LeVert. Getting penetration and using the threat of his jumper to beat his many has never been an issue for Whitehead, but converting inside the arc and specifically at the rim have been a real problem for him. Spacing on a basketball floor doesn't just help players get to the rim, it makes finishing easier, pulling defenders away from the paint so their challenges are fewer and not as tight. Kemba Walker's finishing improved once Charlotte started spreading the floor and Dirk Nowitzki has been making mediocre guards successful with the threat of his jumper in pick-and-pop for years. With that in mind, spreading the floor for Whitehead and giving him a screening partner that can shoot would help him maximize his efficiency, especially considering his shooting ability will not allow teams to go under on his screens.

What They Need Going Forward
Really everything, so in that respect they actually need assets to rebuild their team from the ground up. They have a promising building block in Hollis-Jefferson (who even still barely played last season) but beyond that there really isn't much. Chris McCullough, LeVert, and Whitehead have upside but also serious questions and are a long way to go to become anything. The next step is selling off Brook Lopez and Bojan Bogdanovic for whatever you can get, both are good players, especially Lopez, but they aren't necessarily part of the Nets rebuilding effort and the ultimate iteration of what Brooklyn is building. From that perspective, the Nets need to view any free agents and non-foundational young players as potential trade assets that can bring back draft picks or good, young, cost controlled players. For example, I could see Whitehead showing his flashy game for a year them being flipped in a package over the summer. Brooklyn might see it differently and look to rebuild quicker, but with how dire this team's situation is, a full tear down seems like it will be necessary for Brooklyn to contend.

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2016 NBA Draft: Los Angeles Lakers Draft Review

Current 2016-17 Roster
PG: D'Angelo Russell
SG: Nick Young
SF: Brandon Ingram/Anthony Brown
PF: Julius Randle/Larry Nance Jr.
C: Ivica Zubac

Free Agents
PF Brandon Bass
SG Kobe Bryant (Retired)
C Roy Hibbert
C Robert Sacre
SF Metta World Peace
G Jordan Clarkson (Restricted)
PG Marcelo Huertas (Restricted)
PF Ryan Kelly (Restricted)
C Tarik Black (Restricted)

Who They Acquired
02. Brandon Ingram, SF Duke
The Lakers made the obvious choice, going with whom many considered the 1b to Ben Simmons 1a. Ingram probably won't be the star that Los Angeles craves, but we will be an excellent contributor in every area of the game and the kind of player that will attract free agents and can fit in pretty much any offense.

32. Ivica Zubac, C Mega Leks
In the second round, the Lakers got a steal a in Zubac, who was projected by many to be a sure-fire first round pick. Croatia's Zubac most likely fell because he wants (and presumably will) come to the NBA right away and wasn't interested in being stashed. He isn't ready to be a starting center, but in a back role of the bench Zubac could play 10-15 minutes a game as early as next season, especially if the Lakers aren't competing for anything, which is likely.

How They Fit
One of the biggest appeals of Ingram is that he fits really well with any team in any offense. However, despite the fact that he will likely be a starter and play many minutes for LA, it is important to remember the Ingram is far from a finished product and isn't the player he will be a few years from now. Starting out, Ingram will likely be limited to spot-up shooting and the occasional pick-and-roll opportunities as he adjusts to the physicality of the game. As he develops, Ingram projects as a secondary ball-handler who can play both forward spots, run pick-and-roll, and while he may never be an elite at-the-rim scorer, his pull-up game is something that could become a real weapon in the NBA. Ingram and an athletic big like Julius Randle as the role man would be difficult to contend with. Using Ingram as the screener is another possibility, where he can both pop or roll, with D'Angelo Russell as the ball-handler. At this point, Ingram is still learning the defensive fundamentals and should not be asked to guard the best opposing wing, however with defensive tissue paper in Russell and Jordan Clarkson as the projected backcourt, Ingram may have no choice but to take his lumps defensively. While eventually he can be a high usage player, Ingram can also be a low usage shooter/defender if LA is able to attract stars.
Zubac is definitely an old-style center, he doesn't have range to his game and is the most effective close to the basket, both offensively and defensively. Posting up, Zubac has good hands and feet, but his skills scoring there aren't what you call polished. However, at 7-1, 265 and still growing, there aren't going to be a ton of centers that will be able to matchup physically once his frame has fully filled out. Zubac will require offense to be created for him, either as a dump off or in the screen-and-roll game, therefore it would be wise to play him with a pure, passing point guard like Marcelo Huertas who can find him easy baskets as his other offense develops. Defensively, the further you move Zubac away from the basket at this point, the less effective his defense becomes. He isn't a pure shot-blocker, but his sheer size and reach make him an impediment at the basket. Where he needs to improve is defending on the moving, he isn't the kind of guy you want switching, but if he can just improve in the little areas like hedging screens then recovering, it will really help his defensive value. Pairing Zubac with a mobile power forward that can help him out would be wise.

What They Need Going Forward
With nine potential free agents this summer, the Lakers have a lot of needs and a chance to really re-make their roster with any number of free agents, from stars on down. While I am bullish on Zubac's potential career prospects, he is far from ready to be a starting center, which is LA biggest need. None of the Lakers other four starts project to be above-average defensive players, so a strong defensive center is a must (Dwight Howard? Just kidding.) Another wing player that could force Clarkson into a sixth-man role would be another option, particularly one that can shoot and play defense. Assuming that Huertas is retained, the Lakers should look to fill out their depth with strong defensive players that can mix-and-match with their more offensive focused starters. 
In reality, none of the Lakers incumbent players have proved themselves to be starter level players yet, so if the Lakers can acquire a more proven young player, either in free agency or trade, then they should regardless of their current roster.
Oh and in what any way possible they can get rid of festering human boil Nick Young, they should.

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2016 NBA Draft: Philadelphia 76ers Draft Review

Current 2016-17 Roster
PG: T.J. McConnell/Kendall Marshall
SG: Nik Stauskas/Timothe Luwawu
SF: Robert Covington/Jerami Grant
PF: Ben Simmons/Dario Saric/Richaun Holmes
C: Joel Embiid/Nerlens Noel/Jahlil Okafor/Carl Landry

Free Agents
PF Elton Brand
PG Ish Smith
G Isaiah Canaan (Restricted)
SG Hollis Thompson (Restricted)
PF Christian Wood (Restricted)

Who They Acquired
01. Ben Simmons, G/F LSU
Philadelphia made the pick everyone was expecting and drafted Simmons, who is essentially a 6-10 lead guard with his advanced ball-handling, vision, and point guard skills. He is tremendous in transition and rebounds very well, but there are questions about his ability to shoot, defend, and lead.

24. Timothe Luwawu, SF Mega Leks
Luwawu's "value" (whatever that means) seems to have peaked early in the process before he slided back into where he started, in the late first round. The Frenchman has defensive potential and a developing, if inconsistent jumpshot and some floor game, though both need polishing out. Reportedly Luwawu will come to Philadelphia this coming season.

26. Furkan Korkmaz, SG Anadolu Efes
The Sixers doubled up on international wing prospects, taking the raw but talented Korkmaz. The Turkish international is a very good athlete with a sweet outside stroke and some slasher potential, though his ability to score inside the arc is a question mark.

How They Fit
Simmons is obviously, along with Joel Embiid if he can stay healthy, part of the two foundational building blocks in Philadelphia. By taking Simmons, the Sixers are committing to building around him and playing in a style that suits him. That means getting up and down with fast, athletic players that can both shoot and defend as well as a big man that can play pick-and-roll and defend the rim. Simmons will, more often than not, be the primary ball-handler and playmaker, the point guard. Spreading the floor with a 4/5 pick-and-roll with Simmons and Embiid (or Noel) will be the bread-and-butter of this offense, give him the ball, set a screen and let him have a wide-open floor to see and create. Simmons can also posted up if opponents try to put a smaller player on him, however if defenders lay off and dare Simmons to shoot, he will need to find a way around that tactic, something he was unable to do consistently in college.

Luwawu, should he come over right away as is being reported, will be an important part of the Sixers are doing, ready or not, because they really lack true wings that can shoot the ball. Even if that weakness is addressed in trade or free agency, Luwawu should be a big part of their plans going forward because he fits so well with Simmons and Embiid. Provided Luwawu continues his development as a shooter, his ability to run in transition and space the floor should be ideal for the type of up-tempo, spread out offense you want to run with Simmons. Defensively, Luwawu looks to be an ace against 1s and 2s, but we will need to get stronger if he wants to switch beyond that and guard bigger wings, which is presumably the kind of defense you'd like to play with Simmons, as his point guard skills allow you to play three wings instead of a traditional point guard.

Whether in Europe of the D-League next season, Korkmaz has some clear areas of improvement he can focus on before becoming a part of Philadelphia's main roster. First and foremost, he needs to get stronger. At roughly 6-7, 185 Korkmaz is far too skinny and it shows in his finishing and defense, which are the two most glaring areas of weakness in his game. Just getting stronger will help Korkmaz with both, but there is more to it than that, particularly craft as a finisher and effort as a defender. If he becomes a finished product, Korkmaz would be similar to Luwawu as an athletic wing that can get up and down the floor, but likely with better shooting and worse defense.

What They Need Going Forward
First and foremost, the Sixers need to get their big man position sorted out, they have the most imbalanced roster in the league with zero at least average NBA guards and seven guys who are best at center and power forward, eight if Dario Saric comes over. Despite their efforts to trade Nerlens Noel (a good fit with Ben Simmons), Jahlil Okafor (an apocalyptically bad fit with Simmons) is the one they need to move, possibly throwing in another of their young bigs in attempt to bring back a better guard or wing.
The Sixers have made it clear they are willing to spend money in free agency and the guard and wing spots should be their focus, in particular those that can defend and shoot. And while Simmons is able to play point guard himself, it would be a mistake not to put other playmakers on the floor because he can be played off of so severely. Besides, why wouldn't you want more passers and playmakers on the floor?

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Tuesday, June 21, 2016

2016 NBA Draft: Mock Draft

I have no sources or inside information, just some (kinda) educated speculation:

01. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons, G/F LSU (6-10, 240) Age: 19
The Sixers are taking Simmons, that is 99% of a lock at this point, the only intrigue left is what Philadelphia does with their logjam of big men and if they acquire another lottery pick.  

02. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Ingram, SF Duke (6-9, 196) Age: 18
Ingram is basically a lock here as well, though they have been making noise looking at some other players, I think that is just due diligence in case some team blows away with an offer for the #2 overall pick.

03. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn): Jaylen Brown, SF/PF California (6-7, 223) Age: 19
I still don't think the Celtics are taking Dragan Bender, and will most likely trade this pick, but if they use it they will try to sell that they are taking a star, but go with a player like Jaylen Brown, with a higher floor than say Marquese Chriss, but also has some upside as well.

04. Phoenix Suns: Marquese Chriss, PF Washington (6-10, 233) Age: 18
Dragan Bender would literally be the perfect fit for the Suns, but I am not sure Robert Sarver will stand for a top 5 pick that won't player right away. Ironically, Chriss isn't going to help much starting out either and has a significantly higher bust factor and not any more upside.

05. Minnesota Timberwolves: Kris Dunn, PG Providence (6-4, 205) Age: 22
I don't know if Ricky Rubio gets traded (it would be a mistake, in my opinion) but Dunn is the type of player that can play a role for Minnesota early on, especially playing with a guard like Zach LaVine. Most importantly, Dunn can defend his tail off, which will appeal to Tom Thibodeau.

06. New Orleans Pelicans: Jamal Murray, SG Kentucky (6-4, 207) Age: 19
The Pelicans need to find more scoring and shot creation, which in theory is what Murray provides. Especially with Eric Gordon most likely departing in free agency, Murray could fill a similar role as a shooter and sometimes creator,

07. Denver Nuggets (from New York): Dragan Bender, PF Maccabi Tel Aviv (7-1, 225) Age: 18
This is obviously a no-brainer for Denver, who not only could really use a player like Bender but also have patience with and an affinity for International prospects.

08. Sacramento Kings: Buddy Hield, SG Oklahoma (6-5, 212) Age: 22
This is another no-brainer. There are major questions about just how good Hield can be in the NBA, but he is unlikely to bust completely and is a high character player that can help transform the Kings dysfunction. There are likely to be better players drafted after Hield, but with Sacramento I get swinging for a double, at this point they just need talent.

09. Toronto Raptors (from Denver): Jakob Poeltl, C Utah (7-1, 239) Age: 20
With Bismack Biyombo departing, Toronto can look to beef up their big man depth and draft a solid, well-rounded big man in Poeltl, though the Raptors are talented enough to go in pretty much any direction, minus point guard most likely.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Dejounte Murray, PG Washington (6-5, 170) Age: 19
Last year the Bucks drafted Rashad Vaughn way earlier than expected and you could defintely see them do that again with Murray, a raw prospect with upside but a looooong way to go,

11. Orlando Magic: Deyonta Davis, PF/C Michigan State (6-11, 237) Age: 19
Point guard is the main need for Orlando, but they don't seem to think so after they parted ways with their coach partially over Elfrid Payton. Davis has upside and a solid floor, but most of all he projects to compliment Orlando's current big men. 

12. Atlanta Hawks (from Utah): Domantas Sabonis, PF/C Gonzaga (6-11, 231) Age: 20
After trading Jeff Teague for this pick, the Hawks (who may yet trade up further) can look to address their need for big man depth. The Hawks were really bad on the glass last season, an area Sabonis excels at. Even better his high IQ and skill fits the Hawks system.

13. Phoenix Suns (from Washington): Timothe Luwawu, SF Mega Leks (6-7, 205) Age: 21
After power forward, a low-usage defensive wing/shooting wing is the Suns biggest need, so it would not be a shock for them to use one of their two lottery picks on a player like Timothe Luwawu.

14. Chicago Bulls: Wade Baldwin IV, PG Vanderbilt (6-4, 202) Age: 20
The Bulls finally pulled the plug on Derrick Rose and now have a Jerian Grant/Jose Calderon combo at point guard. While Grant has some value (his fit with Fred Hoiberg is as good as his fit in the triangle was bad) but neither he nor Calderon has the upside of Wade Baldwin, who would fit well with Jimmy Butler.

15. Denver Nuggets (from Houston): Henry Ellenson, PF/C Marquette (7-0, 242) Age: 19
If Dragan Bender isn't able to come over and play right away, Denver could look to get a more immediate contributor in Ellenson or the like.

16. Boston Celtics (from Dallas): Malachi Richardson, SG Syracuse (6-6, 200) Age: 20 
Someone is taking Richardson in the first round, likely in the top 20 and Boston (or whomever they trade with) seem like as likely a destination as any.

17. Memphis Grizzlies: Taurean Prince, SF/PF Baylor (6-8, 220) Age: 21
The Grizzlies are forever in a search for shooting and have built their team around tough defense in recent times. Prince projects to provide some of both.

18. Detroit Pistons: Denzel Valentine, SG Michigan State (6-6, 210) Age: 22
Valentine slides due to concerns about his knee. The local connection and Valentines fit in Stan Van Gundy's system make him too good to pass on.

19. Denver Nuggets (from Portland): Demetrius Jackson, PG Notre Dame (6-2, 194) Age: 21
Even with the strides that Emmanuel Mudiay took last season, the Nuggets still need to find him a back up and Jackson is great value here and an ideal fit as a backup point guard.

20. Brooklyn Nets (from Indiana): Tyler Ulis, PG Kentucky (5-10, 149) Age: 20
The Nets have the worst point guard situation in the league and desperately need something, anything there. Tyler Ulis is likely a backup but at least he can play point guard and has some tremendous intangibles.

21. Atlanta Hawks: Juan Hernangomez, PF Estudiantes (6-9, 220) Age: 20
With Paul Millsap entering the last year of his deal (most likely) and Al Horford a free agent to-be, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Hawks double on big men, especially if one with the potential of Hernangomez falling to them.

22. Sacramento Kings (from Charlotte): Malik Beasley, SG Florida State (6-5, 190) Age: 19
After trading Marco Bellineli to Charlotte for this pick, making there need for wings that can shoot and defend even more dire.

23. Boston Celtics: Damian Jones, C Vanderbilt (7-0, 244) Age: 20
Again, who knows if the Celtics actually use this pick but if they do, an athletic big man like Jones makes sense because he is significantly more physically talented than the rest of his team.

24. Philadelphia 76ers (from Miami): Patrick McCaw, SG UNLV (6-7, 185) Age: 20
The Sixers need wings that can shoot and defend, which is what McCaw projects to do, with some real upside as well.

25. Los Angeles Clippers: Malcolm Brogdon, SG Virginia (6-5, 223) Age: 23
Does it really matter who the Clippers draft here? He'll never play for Doc Rivers anyway. Still, if he did get to okay Malcolm Brogdon could help the Clippers in the backcourt with shooting, defense, and passing.

26. Philadelphia 76ers (from Oklahoma City): Furkan Korkmaz, SG Anadolu Efes (6-7, 185) Age: 18
The Sixers are unlikely to bring in three rookies from this draft, so unless they trade the pick they will likely look to stash an international. Korkmaz could go much higher in the draft, but also might fall do to the rise of other prospects.

27. Toronto Raptors: Ante Zizc, C Cibona Zagreb (7-0, 249) Age: 19
Zizic is another prospect but could go higher but also might fall. He has been extremely productive in Europe at a young age and has the skills and motor to be a backup center at least.

28. Phoenix Suns (from Cleveland): Ivica Zubac, C Mega Leks (7-1, 265) Age: 19
Yet another international guy that could go higher, Zubax is huge and has some idea what he is doing, which is more rare than you might think.

29. San Antonio Spurs: Cheick Diallo, C Kansas (6-9, 219) Age: 19
The Spurs' lack of athleticism was glaring in their playoff series loss to the Thunder, they need to find some big bodies that can move, especially as Tim Duncan's career comes to a close.

30. Golden State Warriors: DeAndre Bembry, SF Saint Joseph's (6-6, 207) Age: 21
The Warriors lack of depth was exposed somewhat against the Cavaliers, so they would be wise to continue to add and develop real contributors, not just projects or players who fall due to injury. DeAndre Bembry is a really good fit there with his offensive and defensive versatility.

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Wednesday, May 18, 2016

2016 NBA Mock Lottery

Now that we know the official draft order (which it turns out we already knew) and the top of the draft class seems to be crystallizing as far as who will be remaining in the draft and who will be returning to school. It is still to early to know very much about what will actually happen, but information has been slowly leaking out as to the strategies of both teams and players. After the first two picks in the draft (Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons in some order), things could go off script quickly as teams have wildly differing views of the potential of this draft. Some value experience and production more, others look for upside and potential. Those two groups rarely intersect in this draft, leading to disparate rankings depending on what aspects you value more.

01. Philadelphia 76ers: Brandon Ingram, SF Duke (6-9, 196) Age: 18
Once Sam Hinkie was ousted, it appeared conventional NBA wisdom was going to reign supreme, leading to the logical conclusion that Ben Simmons, the traditional "star-power" in the draft, the big name that could get fans excited and put rears in the seats would be the direction Philadelphia would look to go in. However, with the new that Simmons and his agent are trying to force their way to LA (as reported by Nick DePaula of The Vertical), it now appears that Ingram will be the direction they will go in, unless Simmons changes course and is willing to go to Philadelphia and be a model citizen and teammate. This isn't the worst thing for the Sixers, as Inrgam is a better fit on and off the court, mainly because he is a lock to play small forward and is the type of shooter that the Sixers have been desperate for, two things that cannot be said with certainty about Simmons.

02. Los Angeles Lakers: Ben Simmons, PF LSU (6-10, 240) Age: 19
This is an ideal scenario for the Lakers, as they get a highly marketable young player to fill the Mamba-sized left by Kobe Bryant and someone that will be easy to sell stars on playing with because he is such a willing and capable passer. The fit alongside Julius Randle is tenuous at best, and the dearth of shooting in LA is an issue, but those are all secondary concerns to LA. I would expect Simmons to be installed in a similar role as Draymond Green in new coach Luke Walton's DubSoCal offense. Defensively, he isn't a tenth of Green yet so there will be a need to figure things out around him there. LA will need a strong defensive center and role man to make best use of Simmons, as well as shooters to balance the floor and probably a good defender at small forward as well. Again, this is all of secondary concern to LA, who desperately need to re-ignite their franchise after the wasteland of the last couple seasons.

03. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn): Jakob Poeltl, C Utah (7-1, 239) Age: 20
I could be totally wrong, but I get the feeling there is no way that Dragan Bender is the number 3 pick or Boston Celtics have the rights to Dragan Bender by the end of the summer. Now that could mean they trade the pick as part of a package for an established player, or to someone who falls in love with a prospect and sees how ugly this draft is and tries to get the guy they think could be a star, which I don't see being Bender. It also means if the Celtics pick here, they aren't taking Bender. They could (and should, in my opinion) but I just don't see it. Danny Ainge has eschewed foreign players in the past and I don't know why Bender would change his mind considering he is so young and is getting few minutes right now. There is also the question of message, Ainge has been selling his fans on all these assets and making the big move to get a star for years, and hasn't really gotten close, nor have they made it out of the first round of the playoffs with their current roster either. Is Ainge really going to take a project big man that might not even come over right away and when he does, still not be ready? That seems unlikely. So if not Bender, and not a trade, who? There are a number of options, none of which is particularly appealing but Poeltl is the best of the bunch. He is a Steven Adams type of center that isn't flashy but has few weaknesses but makes winning plays. Poeltl is the kind of big man Boston has lacked since Brad Stevens' arrival. The fact that Ainge went to BYU and Poeltl played for Utah, well...

04. Phoenix Suns: Dragan Bender, PF Maccabi Tel Aviv (7-1, 225) Age: 18
This would be ideal for Phoenix, as Bender is exactly the kind of player they need. A dirty-work type of guy who can defend at a high level and projects as a good enough shooter to space the floor. However, with Phoenix it is always dicey, how will they view themselves? As just a young piece away from contention, unwilling to wait to develop a player like Bender? If so, a more pro-ready player might be more of what they consider, such as Buddy Hield. However, if they are willing to be patient and form their team around a young core of Devin Booker and a prospect like Bender (as they should) then they will be looking a different batch of prospects, like Bender or Jaylen Brown. Seriously though, the marketing of the Killer Bs in Booker, Bender and Bledsoe? Worth it just for that. Then what if they traded up and drafted Brown? Then drafted Ben Bentil and Joel Bolomboy? Okay, I'll stop.

05. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jamal Murray, SG Kentucky (6-4, 207) Age: 19
The Timberwolves, exploding with young talent, will have a chance to add another peice to their world domination plan. With four of their starting five set, Minnesota could look towards a power forward to fill the void there, and players like Deyonta Davis and Marquese Chriss certainly make some sense there, they shouldn't force it in the power forward spot, especially since they might want a more veteran player there, via free agency. Instead, improving their shooting should be a priority. If Tom Thibodeau wants someone with more defensive potential that will be ready to step in early on, Buddy Hield makes a ton of sense. However, if they are targeting upside, Jamal Murray seems like a logical fit that could really help stabilize the second unit in the future. A sweet shooting combo guard that can create a little and would give them another scoring option on the perimeter. Murray is probably best suited to the bench, at least early on because he has yet to show he can consistent create against athletic defenders yet and wouldn't face the best of the best NBA guards playing second units.

06. New Orleans Pelicans: Kris Dunn, PG Providence (6-4, 205) Age: 22
Outside of Jrue Holiday, is there an above-average, healthy player on New Orleans' roster? Anthony Davis doesn't even fit into that category. The Pelicans have completely wasted a top five player with terrible trades, signings, and the possibly the league's worst medical staff. Now that they finally have a draft pick again, the Pelicans can start their rebuild, provided they can get out of their own first. Hield would make sense here, as would any of the power forwards in the draft. However if Kris Dunn falls this far (which seems likely given the lack of need for a point guard among the picks above), he seems like the most logical direction for New Orleans, that struggled to defend and create offense last season, two thing that Dunn should help with. Plus, with his size and length, Dunn should be able to function alongside Holiday, but without the pressures of leading the offense until ready.

07. Denver Nuggets (from New York): Jaylen Brown, SF California (6-7, 223) Age: 19
The Nuggets have so many young players on their rosters and three picks in the first round of this draft, so they have a great deal of flexibility. One of the options they have with so much draft capital is to take a risk or two. Jaylen Brown is risky because he hasn't put it all together on the floor yet. However, his physical tools are outstanding and he fits into the small-ball revolution as a potential small forward. With Danilo Gallinari's future far from certain, a combo forward like Brown could be groomed as his replacement in a year or two, filling the role of shot creator and foul-drawer in Denver. It will also be crucial that Brown ends up a team where he isn't under pressure to be a large role right away and has the time to develop and ease into the league.

08. Sacramento Kings: Buddy Hield, SG Oklahoma (6-5, 212) Age: 22
The Kings have to be hoping that Hield is available here, he is really an ideal fit for what they need both on and off the court. Sacramento had a really big spacing issue last season, as well as another drama filled season in the front office, coaching staff, and players. Hield is as close to an NBA ready shooting guard as you are going to find, he is an excellent outside shooter and has the tools to be a good defensive player. Perhaps even more importantly, Hield is a high character, hard-working player that gets along well with teammates and would be a step in the right direction when it comes to rebuilding the culture in Sacramento.

09. Toronto Raptors (from Denver): Deyonta Davis, F/C Michigan (6-11, 237) Age: 19
The Raptors, benefiting from the Knicks mistakes, get a rare chance to add a top ten pick to a conference finals team. With Bismack Biyombo's impending free agency and a hole already existing at power forward for Toronto, they will have their choice of several big man options here if they so choose. I have always been an advocate for good teams swinging for the fences when given the chance to draft high, in which case Marquese Chriss or Skal Labissiere would be possibilities, has however if they wish to go a safer route, Henry Ellenson provides a more stable floor. In this scenario, they split the difference with Deyonta Davis, a physically blessed big man who still has a ton of room to grow, but also with the floor of a solid rebounder/defender with potential for a nice perimeter game with some polish down the road. Add to that the size to play center and you have a logical choice for Toronto.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Skal Labissiere, PF Kentucky (7-0, 216) Age: 20
The Bucks seem to favor high upside talent and the upside doesn't get much higher than Skal Labissiere. Also, because the two foundational young pieces on their roster (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jabari Parker) are both for the most part inside the three-point line players, it makes a lot of sense to look to add someone like Labissiere who has a wonderful stroke that should work from the three point line eventually. Labissiere is a work in progress in many areas, but Milwaukee has shown a willingness to draft and develop raw players and would seem to be a good landing place for Labissiere, who needs patience and confidence from a coach willing to us him in the areas he excels, things he didn't get at Kentucky.

11. Orlando Magic: Demetrius Jackson, PG Notre Dame (6-2, 194) Age: 21
Don't be surprised if this pick ends up in a deal, as Orlando seems done with rebuilding and want to go all in with free agency this summer and may look to trade for pieces as well. If they use this pick, they might shoot for the high upside talent GM Rob Hennigan has favored in the past of they could look for more instant contribution. Demetrius Jackson certainly has upside, but he is further along in his development than say a Marquese Chriss. Orlando clearly thinks Elfrid Payton is the point guard of their future (despite much evidence to the contrary) which was a primary reason for Scott Skiles resignation. However, they lack any kind of quality backup, which is a role Jackson should be able to play early on in his career. Also, because of his shooting ability and Payton's size, the two could easily play alongside one another, if Orlando insists on playing a point guard with a .478 TS%.

12. Utah Jazz: Wade Baldwin IV, PG Vanderbilt (6-3, 202) Age: 20
The Jazz missed out on the playoffs last season in large part because of terrible point guard play. Now, part of that wasn't there fault due to Dante Exum's unfortunate injury, but relying inexperienced Exum, coming off a serious knee injury seem pa the height of folly without a backup plan. Wade Baldwin IV probably isn't ready to lead an NBA offense, but in Utah he wouldn't have to. The Jazz have many creators on the wing who could supplement Baldwin until he is more comfortable as the lead guard, leaving him free to knock down 3s (something he did with a greater than 40% success rate in college) and use his size, athletic ability and absurd 6-11+ wingspan to defend. Both he and Exum can play alongside one another, giving Utah two versatile players how can both shoot and defend, something their point struggled to do last season.

13. Phoenix Suns (from Washington): Henry Ellenson, PF Marquette (7-0, 242) Age: 19
If they make more of a long term investment at power forward at pick 4, the Suns could use their second of three first rounders on a more immediate contributor, whether that be a wing like Timothe Luwawu or Denzel Valentine or a big man in the vein of Henry Ellenson. If their first pick is a safer prospect, they could take a high upside flier on the likes of Marquese Chriss or Skal Labissiere. Ellenson has a ways to go defensively, but he has the tools to be average in that area, which is all he would need to be because of his versatile offensive skillset and rebounding. Though he shot poorly from deep in college, Ellenson projects as an above-average stretch big with the additional playmaking and post-scoring abilities of a modern NBA big man.

14. Chicago Bulls: Marquese Chriss, PF Washington (6-10, 233) Age: 18
Though they will likely never admit to it, the Bulls are entering a different phase of their franchise history, one that is closer to rebuilding than contending. With the all but inevitable departures of Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol, the Bulls frontcourt will need to be rebuilt around Bobby Portis, Christiano Felicio, Taj Gibson, and Nikola Mirotic, the first two of which are unproven, while the latter two are flawed in one way or another. Marquese Chriss certainly has a higher upside than any of them, though he is still very early on in his development and might take some time to adjust and learn the NBA game. However, if it all clicks you have a tremendously athletic power forward that can both shoot the ball and attack the basket off the dribble. He isn't in the usual "proven college player" mold the Bulls like, but at this point he is too good to pass up on. The Bulls could also use a point guard and a wing that can both shoot and defend, meaning they will take a long look at the likes of Demetrius Jackson, Wade Baldwin IV, Timothe Luwawu, and Denzel Valentine.

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