Friday, July 4, 2014

10 Things To Watch At The Orlando Summer League

1. Where does Marcus Smart look most comfortable?
The Celtics drafted Marcus Smart into a situation with a well paid veteran point guard (Rajon Rondo) and shooting guard (Avery Bradley), so there is some question as to where he will play. Before coming to Oklahoma State, Smart was a two guard, but in college he played the point. With James Young and Phil Pressey both on the summer league roster, Smart will have an opportunity to play both, so it will be interesting if he looks more comfortable off the ball or if point guard is truly his future position. With Bradley just signed to a big, long term contract, it seems most likely that Rondo will be the one either traded or let walk when his contract expires next summer. Either way, there will be pressure on Smart to be the point guard of the future. Summer league isn't the best place for point guards to shine, but if he can run some semblance of an offense, it will be a good sign.

2. Can James Young translate his talent onto the court?
There is an expression in baseball scouting that a player who has demonstrated a multitude of present or future skills is a "toolbox." In a basketball sense, Young is a toolbox. At various times he looks like he can shoot the ball from the outside, make plays for himself and others off the dribble, finish with authority, and be a lockdown defender. However, all too often those skills are sabotaged by the cerebral aspect of the game, where Young struggles. Whether it be shooting from 3-point range too often, playing out of control, misreading situations, or making mental mistakes defensively like forgetting assignments and rotations. There are some mitigating circumstances, particularly the unique situation at Kentucky with many young alpha dogs playing together for the first time. Also, he is only 18 years old. Young could have a bright future if his on-court IQ catches up to his physical abilities and skills, but if not he may just be another young talent who never reaches their potential.

3. Do Any of Brooklyn's second rounders step up?
The Nets have a roster packed with heavy contract guys, so if they can get their hands on an inexpensive young contributor or two, it will be a major boon to both their roster and their cap situation. In the 2014 draft, the Nets acquired 3 second round picks and with them drafted two shooting guards, Markel Brown and Xavier Thames, as well as power forward Cory Jefferson. If even one of these prospects becomes a contributor, even as the last man on Brooklyn's bench, it will help the Nets bloated roster gain some semblance of stability. All 3 are good, not great shooters, and have both pluses and minus to their games. Brown is undersized and lacks polished offensive skills, though he is a special athlete. Thames on the other hand, isn't overly athletic, and is also undersized, however he is a good ball handler and has a non-zero chance of becoming a point guard with work. Like Brown, Jefferson is very athletic and can shoot, but isn't a finished product offensively. He is good on the glass and can be a very good rim protector, but is also a late bloomer who hasn't sustained a high level of success for long stretches. Summer league is the first steps for these 3 as they try to prove they belong in the NBA.

4. Can Solomon Hill turn into anything?
Last season the Pacers reached for Solomon Hill, a fringe prospect, in the first round of the draft, and he really failed to impress, posting a very uninspiring 7.62 PER in just 28 game and 8.1 minutes for game. For a college senior close to his ceiling and supposedly ready to contribute, Hill didn't look like he could bring much of anything to the table. This year, the Pacers summer league roster consists of mostly castoffs and journeymen, with Hill clearly the only player with much of a chance to make an impact on the Pacers. Because of this, Hill will likely be featured by the Pacers coaching staff and given every chance to showcase his abilities. Can he show the versatility on both ends of the court that led the Pacers to draft him? Or will he look as lost, unathletic, and unskilled as he did at times during his rookie year. 

5. How do Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes handle athletes?
In round one of old vs. new school scouting, we have analytical darlings Jordan Adams and Jarnell Stokes looking to take the first step towards proving that basketball skill and production is more important that physical tools. Neither Stokes nor Adams is particularly impressive athletically, Stokes tested well but plays below the rim while Adams was a disaster at the NBA combine and never looked like an above-average athlete on the court. Both however, were very productive during their time in college, posting big, efficient, numbers scoring the ball, rebounding (relative to position), and even in the case of Adams, high steal totals, all of which are solid indicators of success at the next level. Neither Adams or Stokes were non-prospects, and I think most would agree that they deserves to be drafted, but Adams in particular was surprising with where he was drafted. Hopefully they have successful careers and strike a blow for skill and production over "athletic upside."

6. Is there anyone who can help the Heat?
In a minute, in a day, the Miami situation could change drasitcally depending on what the Big 3 do. If they do all re-sign, the Heat will be in a tight financially situation, which means any kind of bargain player who can help will be a huge benefit. Last year's second rounder James Ennis is intriguing because he is a tough defender and has shown the ability to shoot from the outside, consistency and improvement there would make him an intriguing James Jones replacement. Another interesting prospect is former Duke guard Andre Dawkins, who shot 42% from 3 last year and has a long-track record as a shooter. Former UCLA standout Tyler Honeycutt has always been a jack of all trades on both ends of the court, a gifted passer and ball handler despite being 6-8. The real question was his shooting, but he made 36% of his 3 last season playing in Israel. Towson forward Jarrelle Benimon isn't super skilled athletically, but he plays very hard and eats up rebounds. It is along shot for any of these players to make the Heat, but there is always a chance, which is why the summer league exists.

7. Do any of the Thunder's young players take a step forward?
The Thunder have a stacked roster yet again, featuring multiple first round picks including Steven Adams, Josh Huestis, Perry Jones, Jeremy Lamb, Mitch McGary and Andre Roberson, as well as second rounders Grant Jerrett and Semaj Christon. All are very talented and could play key roles for the Thunder off the bench. Each however, also have areas in need of improvement. Wing defense specialists Huestis and Roberson meet to develop offense to help them stay on the court. Lamb and Jones have all the talent in the world but need to be more consistent. Is McGary recovered and back to normal after his back injury? Will Steven Adams take a step forward from awkward but effective defensive player to legitimate starting center? Jarrett can shoot but he needs to do more than that to earn playing time. Christon is raw and can play wild, but has Eric Bledsoe-like athleticism and motor for a guard.

8. The Orlando's young trio score consistently?
In the last two drafts, Orlando has used 3 lottery picks on some of the best defensive players in those respective classes. Victor Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, and Elfrid Payton all have the potential to be some of the best defensive players at their respective positions down the road. The question is, do they begin to take steps forward on offense? Payton is probably the best in that respect because of his ability to get to the rim, finish, and draw fouls, but his struggles shooting the ball mean he will be working uphill until he can improve in that area. Oladipo and Gordon score off of their energy, but neither are consistent shooters with go-to offensive moves. Oladipo can really get to the rim, but he plays very out of control and gets his shot blocked a lot. Gordon on the other hand, is an awesome finisher, but he needs to improve his footwork in the post and rework a jumpshot that can look pretty ugly at times. All three have bright futures, but the gap between valuable player and star is getting it done on both ends of the court.

9. How does Nerlens Noel look after 17 months off the court?
February 12, 2013 Nerlens Noel tore his ACL and was out for the rest of the season. Since then he has all but disappeared save for a brief appearance when he was drafted by the Sixers, not appearing in a single game for the Sixers. This summer, however, Noel will make his pro debut. Obviously, there is a good chance that he will be rusty, however that really isn't the biggest issue. What Noel needs to show is that he is healthy and fully recovered, able to move side-to-side and vertically like he did before the injury. Noel's ability to guard on the perimeter, high motor, disruptive hands, and elite rim protection skills have drawn comparisons to Joakim Noah. Noel wasn't to play like Noah, but needs to be able to move fluidly to accomplish that level of defensive impact. For all intents and purposes, Noel is basically the Sixers first round pick this year, with Joel Embiid and Dario Saric unlikely to play in the NBA next season, so there will be some unfair pressure on him to perform at a high level. This summer will be a big step forward to see if Noel, rightly or wrongly, will "disappoint" this season.

10. Do any UDFA's make teams look foolish?
Many, many draft prospects weren't drafted this year, but luckily for them they will get a chance to show what they can do in the Summer League. Some of the most notable are Tarik Black, Jahii Carson, Jabari Brown, Joe Jackson, Scottie Wilbekin, Fuquan Edwin, Aaron Craft, Melvin Ejim. Point guards like Carson, JAckson, Wilbekin, and Craft will look to show balance and control of an offense. Wing players such as Brown and Edwin will try to light up the scoreboard and shut down the man in front of them, while Ejim will look to show he isn't a tweener and Black has to defend without fouling and show a higher skill level than he did at Kansas. Odds are, none of these players will ever have a significant career in the NBA, but every once in a while one slips through the cracks of the draft and there isn't any reason why one of these couldn't end up making it on a big team roster. All have talent, from this point it is hard work and a little luck.

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Wednesday, July 2, 2014

San Antonio Spurs Draft Review

30. Kyle Anderson, PF UCLA So. (6-9, 230)
Before the draft, it was obvious that Kyle Anderson's unique skillset would require the correct coach and team structure to succeed. Well he couldn't have landed in a better spot. Anderson is a perfect fit in San Antonio and their free wheeling, ball moving system. He is legitimately a point guard in a power forward's body, with advanced ball handling skills and amazing court vision. His shooting has improved too, shooting 48% from 3 last season. He probably isn't that good of a shooter, but sitting 35-40% from 3 isn't out of the question. The questions about Anderson really revolve around his ability to defend, but San Antonio and Gregg Popovich are the best in the business at maximizing strengths and minimizing weaknesses. In all likelihood, Anderson will be the primary backup power forward and learn from Boris Diaw, who will be re-signed as the backup center. Anderson will be one of the most fun rookies to follow this season.

Projected Lineup
PG: Tony Parker/Patty Mills
SG: Danny Green/Manu Ginobili
SF: Kawhi Leonard/Marco Belinelli
PF: Tim Duncan/Kyle Anderson
C: Tiago Splitter

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Oklahoma City Thunder Draft Review

21. Mitch McGary, F/C Michigan So. (6-10, 250)
The Thunder value intangibles like motor and toughness as much as any franchise in the NBA and this draft really showed that. With both of their picks, they targeted un-flashy players who contribute in ways outside of scoring. McGary is actually most similar to current Thunder forward Nick Collison; rebounding on both ends, playing great help defense, passing, finishing around the basket, and hitting mid-range jumpers. McGary probably has more upside than Collison, but if they is all he becomes it would be well worth a late first round pick. The reason McGary fell, probably too far, were concerns about a back injury and a short track record of success. Collison will be a free agent at the end of next season, at which point McGary will take his place. Or, if Kendrick Perkins is amnestied or traded, he could backup Steven Adams at center.

29. Josh Huestis, G/F Stanford Sr. (6-8, 230) 
This pick confused me at first, Josh Huestis was off my radar some, but on further review it makes sense. Huestis is an excellent defender, an elite athlete with long arms and a high basketball IQ which makes his defensive ability play up even more. Down the road he could become one of the best defenders in the league. It is the offense that is the question, the last two seasons he shot .338% from 3, which is better than Jimmy Butler has shot last season. Butler is probably the best comp for Huestis, college Seniors who are great athletes, defense first, can make jumpshots, and contribute offensively due to their smarts and hustle. Maybe Huestis was a reach, but as a replacement to Thabo Sefolosha, which the Thunder need, he makes a lot of sense.

Projected Lineup
PG: Russell Westbrook/Reggie Jackson
SG: Jeremy Lamb/Josh Huestis
SF: Kevin Durant/Andre Roberson/Perry Jones
PF: Serge Ibaka/Nick Collison/Mitch McGary
C: Kendrick Perkins/Steven Adams

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Los Angeles Clippers Draft Review

28. C.J. Wilcox, SG Washington Sr. (6-5, 201)
The Clippers are in win-now mode for sure, and therefore have been using the last couple drafts as ways to find players who can help them right now in this playoff/championship window. Last year, it was Reggie Bullock, who was buried behind veterans last season, but will be expected to contribute this season. As will C.J. Wilcox, who is a very good shooter and not only has the physical ability to defend but also the commitment and effort on that end, taking pride in his defense. That makes Wilcox and ideal role player who can stretch the floor on offense as well as play committed defense. He isn't likely the type of player that will move the needle much by himself, but a bench of quality role players is something that helps a team win championships.

Projected Lineup
PG: Chris Paul/Jamal Crawford
SG: J.J. Redick/C.J. Wilcox
SF: Jared Dudley/Reggie Bullock
PF: Blake Griffin/Matt Barnes
C: DeAndre Jordan

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Miami Heat Draft Review

24. Shabazz Napier, PG Connecticut Sr. (6-1, 175)
There is so much going on with this pick, it will be one of the most interesting to follow in the next couple of years. First, there is a good story about LeBron loving Napier and wanting him on the team, but it really smells of the previous "GM LeBron" moves that Cleveland succumbed to, with disastrous results. This particular move is a generally a low-risk maneuver for the Heat, but trying to appease one player is usually a bad move if it comes to the detriment of the team. In that case however, it probably doesn't but it could be the first step down a desperate path that already killed on franchise's championship chances. Napier is an excellent fit in Miami, who need another player who can get his own shot and isn't completely reliant on LeBron to get them shots. He is probably an upgrade over Norris Cole and Mario Chalmers, though certainly not a sure thing because of Napier's size and the overall nature of his game as a shoot-first guard. Yes, he's made some big shots in college, but so did Chalmers and that made zero difference in this recent finals. Overall, I think this helps make the Heat better though, but I hope fans don't hold Napier up to be something he isn't.

Projected Roster
PG: Norris Cole/Shabazz Napier
SG: Dwyane Wade
SF: LeBron James
PF: ???
C: Chris Bosh

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Houston Rockets Draft Review

25. Clint Capela, F/C Switzerland (6-11, 222)
Houston wanted to add talent to their franchise, but not have to give up an guaranteed money this season so they will have the money to go after big name free agents. They succeeded in both respects with Clint Capela, a young, promising big man who isn't quite ready for the NBA and therefore won't cost any of Houston's cap space until they decide he is ready to come play in the NBA. Capela has gotten somewhat unfair criticism after a disappointing Hoops Summit, but he was a defensive force in France all season. Where he mainly needs work is the offensive end of the floor, physically he can finish well because of his physical gifts, however other than that he lacks any go-to offensive ability. Capela will likely always be defense-first player, but he'll need to be some kind of threat offensively to make it to the NBA in any serious capacity.

42. Nick Johnson, SG Arizona Jr. (6-3, 198)
The Rockets have a history of success with taking undervalued players in the second round, and they may have another gem in Nick Johnson, a super-athletic shooting guard who can both shoot and create his own shot. The reason he fell to the second round is his size, he is built more like a point guard, though his athleticism and long arms should help make up some for that. The history of undersized shooting guards isn't exactly littered with success stories, but Johnson does have the physical profile as well as the on-court skills to succeed despite his size. If he can contribute, it will be big for Houston, who will be trying to fill out their roster with inexpensive talents so they can put that money elsewhere.

Projected Lineup
PG: Patrick Beverly/Jeremy Lin
SG: James Harden
SF: Chandler Parsons (UFA)/Omri Casspi
PF: Terrence Jones
C: Dwight Howard/Donatas Motiejunas

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Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Memphis Grizzlies Draft Review

22. Jordan Adams, SG UCLA So. (6-5, 209)
The Grizzlies had a golden opportunity to find a nice wing role player with their first round pick, I don't think they made the safest pick, or that they drafted the best athlete, but they made the most interesting pick and took the best basketball player at a position of need. Adams scored out terribly athletically and awesome analytically, which will make this an interesting test case for old school vs. new school scouting. I fall on the side of the latter; though Adams is far from a top athlete, he isn't as bad as the combine showed, just look at Kevin Durant's testing if you want a lesson in combine outliers. Adams is really good in games, where he has a balanced efficient scoring attack led by good shooting, strength to muscle around the basket, and an innate scoring instinct off the ball to get open looks. He also rebounds well, can create plays, and has good instincts creating turnovers. The lack of athleticism does show on the defensive end and Adams does have a penchant for getting a little shot happy.

35. Jarnell Stokes, PF Tennessee Jr. (6-9, 263)
Like Adams, Stokes performed great on the court and was one of the top prospects by analytics. He actually tested better athletically as well, though he is still a below the rim player. An effective one though, Stokes is a classic low post player who can score around the rim and is one of the best rebounders in the draft, particularly on the offensive end. He isn't a top shot blocker, but with some work, he should be able to use his size to protect the rim and clog lanes. The real concern is his ability to guard in space, he really is more of an undersized center. However, as a backup, rotational big, Stokes should be excellent because of his ability to both score and rebound at a high rate while also being able to have his match-ups limited. Also, landing with an excellent defensive team like the Memphis is great for both Stokes and Adams.

Projected Lineup
PG: Mike Conley/Nick Calathes
SG: Courtney Lee/Tony Allen/Jordan Adams
SF: Tayshaun Prince/James Johnson/Quincy Pondexter
PF: Zach Randolph/Jarnell Stokes
C: Marc Gasol/Kosta Koufos

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