NBA Draft: Dario Saric Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 19; Height: 6-10; Weight: 223; Wingspan: 6-10

Season Stats (as of 2/17)*

31.5 mpg, 15.8 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.5 bpg, 2.9 tpg, 3.1 fpg, .535 FG, .706 FT .319 3P

Strengths

-Good size for a 3/4

-Very fluid, underrated athletically

-Moves very well

-Good hands, ball skills
-Improving mid-range game

-Excellent slasher

-Finishes well at the rim

-Draws fouls

-Excellent ball handler

-Point guard abilities

-Special court vision for a forward

-Very good, creative passer

-Good rebounder

-Plays the passing lanes

-Outstanding feel for the game

-Good motor, plays hard

Weaknesses

-Lacks great length

-Just an average athlete

-Not particularly quick laterally

-Lacks strength

-May struggle against athletic wings, strong bigs

-Still a below average 3-point shooter

-Turns the ball over a lot

-Tries to do too much sometimes

-Not a fit for every team, offense

-May require some creative defensive and offensive planning

-Not playing in the top European leagues

NBA Comparison

It is hard to find a good comparison for Saric, his passing as a forward is reminiscent of Boris Diaw though he has the ability to handle the ball and attack of the dribble at 6-10 like Thaddeus Young. The combination of the two isn't something seen in the NBA much today, and perhaps the most similar basketball player around is fellow draft project Kyle Anderson of UCLA.

Draft Projection

Saric is difficult to project because he won't be a fit for every team, however his unique abilities on offense could cause a team that falls in love to draft him as high as 6 and I can't see him falling out of the lottery.

Highlights

*In the Adriatic League

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NBA Draft: Julius Randle Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 19; Height: 6-9; Weight: 250; Wingspan: 6-11; Reach: 8-9.5

Season Stats (as of 2/16)

29.8 mpg, 15.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.8 bpg, 2.9 tpg, 2.4 fpg, .529 FG, .711 FT, .250 3P

Strengths 

-Strong, physically built power forward

-Excellent athlete

-Explosive and very quick

-Very good first step

-Awesome scorer around the basket

-Strong finisher

-Excellent in the post

-Incredible attacking off the dribble facing up

-Raw skills as a jump shooter

-Draws a ton of fouls, coverts at a good rate

-Potential to be an efficient 20+ point scorer 

-Adept with both hands

-Good ball handler

-High IQ, good passer

-Plays tough defense

-Excellent rebounder on both ends

-Great motor, plays very hard

-Unafraid to be physical

-Improved shot selection, attacking more

Weaknesses

-Some may consider him undersized

-Below average length

-Can struggle against long defenders

-Has had condition problems in the past

-Somewhat turnover prone

-Jumper isn't a legitimate weapon yet

-Can get tunnel vision

-Sometimes relies on athleticism more than fundamentals

-Not consistently making impact plays on defense yet

-Will probably never be a top level shot blocker

NBA Comparison

Like Randle, Blake Griffin was dominant in college using his strength, athleticism, and skill to score in a variety of ways around the basket though they can struggle versus length. Both rebound at a high rate, excel at getting to the line and Griffin, like Randle, had the makings of a jumpshot that eventually became a weapon. Also, neither Randle or Griffin are impact defenders, but are solid on that end. 

Draft Projection

Randle should be a 20-10 power forward in the NBA with at least average defense. That is worth at least a top pick, possibly as high as 3rd overall, Randle should be the top power forward taken and second big man after Joel Embiid.

Highlights

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NBA Draft: Noah Vonleh Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 18; Height: 6-10; Weight: 240; Wingspan: 7-4; Reach: 8-10

Season Stats (as of 2/16)

25.8 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.3 bpg, 2.3 tpg, 2.7 fpg, .540 FG, .720 FT, .542 3P

Strengths

-Excellent size, length, reach, build, and frame

-Tremendous growth potential

-Doesn't turn 18 until August 24th

-Good athlete for his size

-Excellent mobility and fluidity

-Runs the floor well

-Good finisher around the rim

-Flashes of a post game

-Rapidly improving jump shooter

-Potentially versatile pick-and-roll player and stretch 4/5

-Draws fouls, converts at the line

-High offensive upside

-Excellent defensive potential

-Length and mobility a real asset defensively

-Physical on the interior, hard to move

-Plays very strong and physical on both ends
-Excellent rebounder on both ends

-Awesome motor

Weaknesses
-Not an overly explosive leaper
-Relies more on length than vertical
-Offense mostly projection
-Not a dominant scorer right now
-Needs to improve ball-handling
-Still learning as a ball mover, turnover prone
-Poor 0.22 A/TO ratio
-Youth can have a downside as well
-Questions about his true position

NBA Comparison

Al Horford has great size, length, athleticism, and skill for a power forward, yet has played center at a high level for much of his career. Vonleh isn't quite the athlete or up to Horford's skill level yet, but he is longer and bigger at this stage in his career. If Vonleh's jump shot continues to develop, he could have a similar impact on both ends as Horford at both power forward or possibly center.

Draft Projection
Vonleh isn't as high profile as the other big time Freshman , but if he declares the draft process should be very kind to him. There's a chance he challenges Julius Randle, but must likely he will be battling with Aaron Gordon to be the second power forward drafted and land somewhere in the mid-to-end of the top 10. 

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NBA Draft: Montrezl Harrell Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 20; Height: 6-8, Weight: 235, Wingspan: 7-3, Reach: 8-11

Season Stats (as of 2/15)

28.0 mpg, 13.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.4 bpg, 1.3 tpg, 2.3 fpg, .619 FG, .500 3P, .471 FT

Strengths

-Long wingspan and above average reach for a 4

-Ripped NBA-ready body

-Upper-level athleticism

-Explosive leaping ability

-Very good running the floor

-Quick off the ground

-Moves well laterally

-Good hands, catches pass well

-Very good at converting lobs and finishing inside

-Tries, and usually succeeds, to dunk everything in close

-Weapon in the pick and roll

-Potential for a jumpshot

-Good rebounder on both ends

-Uses length and athleticism to block shots, get steals

-Potential to be a good help and pick-and-roll defender

-High energy, good motor

-Physical, tough

-Excellent role player potential, high floor

Weaknesses

-Height will turn some teams off

-Not particularly skilled offensively at this point

-Jumper needs work

-Just a so-so ball handler

-Very poor free throw shooter

-Offense reliant on others right now

-Doesn't always dominate on the glass like he could

NBA Comparison: Kenneth Faried

Both Harrell and Faried are undersized in height, but have very long arms and the reach of taller players (Harrell's 8-11 reach is higher than Josh Smith, David Lee, and Joakim Noah) as well as terrific athletic ability that allow them to play bigger than their listed height. Both impact the game with how hard they play, whether it is a dunks, a block, or chasing down a rebound. Faried is better on the glass, but Harrell has a stronger frame and potential to be a much better defender. Harrell is at worst a valuable role player off the bench, with the upside of Faried with better defense.

Draft Projection

Harrell has really taken off in conference play and if he can continue it though the end of the season and into workouts, he has a chance to make his way into the lottery, competing with Jerami Grant, Clint Capela, and Adreian Payne to be the next power forward drafted after Randle, Gordon, Vonleh, Saric. Teams looking for a high energy, supporting big man who can overlook his height should be interest as early as the 10th.

Highlights

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NBA Draft: Aaron Gordon Scouting Report

Measurements

Age: 18; Height: 6-9, Weight: 225, Wingspan: 6-11.5, Reach: 8-10.5

Season Stats (as of 2/11)

30.8 mpg, 11.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.9 bpg, 1.4 tpg, 1.9 fpg, .471 FG, .296 3P, .418 FT

Strengths

-Good height and reach for a power forward

-Great frame, could add 25 more pounds

-Top level explosiveness and athleticism

-Tremendous second jump

-Very good hands

-Strong finisher above the rim

-True threat on lob plays and putbacks

-Good ball handler for his size

-Effective passer

-Very good rebounder

-Excellent defender with lockdown potential

-Capable of guarding both forward positions

-Willing help defender

-Defends without fouling

-High motor, plays very hard

-Very good feel for the game, high IQ

-Great teammate, willing to do dirty work

Weaknesses

-Below average wingspan

-Limited offensive player right now

-Jumpshot needs a lot of work

-Little post game

-Very poor free throw shooter

-Despite defensive ability, just average in terms of steals and blocks 

NBA Comparison

Amir Johnson is close in size (6-9, 210) to Gordon with similar explosiveness. In Johnson's first couple years, he made his name on defense and took most of his shots in the immediate basket area, not taking less than 70% of his shots from point blank range until his fifth season. Later in his career, Johnson became an above-average midrange shooter, even extending out to the 3-point line. Gordon should follow a similar arc: rebounding, defending, and finishing a high percentage of short shots, while slowly expanding his game outwards. Gordon has more upside than Johnson due to his bigger frame and ball moving skills.

Draft Projection

Gordon is still a baby, both physically and skill-wise, so he will be drafted a lot on the hope his offense catches up to the defense. Right now, he is a lock for the top 10, but will have to battle Noah Vonleh to be the second power forward drafted after Julius Randle.
Aaron Gordon Highlights

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Gary Harris: Inside the Numbers

During the 2012-13 season, Freshman guard Gary Harris was critical to a Michigan State teamthat  reached the Sweet 16. He was second on the team in scoring and one Freshman of the Year in the Big 10. In the offseason Harris eschewed the NBA Draft, where he would have been a lottery pick, possibly in the top 10, and returned for his Sophomore season. Based on his counting stats, Harris made a good choice:

2012-13: 29.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.5 tpg

2013-15: 30.1 mpg, 17.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.1 tpg

On a superficial level, Harris is producing at a higher level than last season with only a negligible increase in minutes.* In a sense, that is true, he is rebounding the ball better and become a better playmaker, without turning the ball over much more often. However, it is the scoring number that is misleading, Harris may be scoring more, but he has been doing so much less efficiently:

2012-13: .456 FG%, .411 3P%

2013-14: .403 FG%, .312 3P%

Both Harris' overall shooting percentage and three-point percentage are down significantly, and the reason for his increased scoring is due in large part to taking a greater volume of shots. His shots per game grew from 9.7 in his Freshman year to to 13.9 this year and he is also taking 3.1 more threes per game. Basically, it appears Harris is making more shots because he is taking more shots, not necessarily because he has improved offensively. However, just as the counting stats deceive, so do the shooting percentages. The drain on Harris' percentages are due almost entirely to an extended three-point shooting slump, and to a lesser extent shot selection. In fact, Harris has improved as an offensive player in several ways, despite a much lower FG% this season, Harris has actually improved his efficiency from two-point range:

2012-13: 2-point FG% 85/171 (.497%), 3-point FG% 65/158 (.411%)

2013-14: 2-point FG% 32/62 (.516%), 3-point FG% 24/77 (.312%)

In addition to this, Harris is also drawing more fouls a game (2.9 to 4.2) and converting them at a higher rate than last season. Based on this, if his shooting rebounds he could be an even more effective scorer. Until then, he should attack the basket more and attempt to get to the free throw line.  Harris has a nice floater, is good at beating his man, and moves well without the ball so he should be able to find ways to score inside the arc until his shooting stroke returns. The question is, of course, will it return? It is important to note that health may be playing a role in both his shot selection and shooting; Harris has missed 3 games this season with a nagging ankle injury he first hurt over the summer. If he can get healthy**, it could do wonders for his efficiency. Based on the eye test, Harris should bounce back; his stroke looks good and was very effective last season; this is backed up by the fact that he is an excellent free throw shooter converting at a .905% rate, which is usually a sign of a good stroke. 

For his draft stock, it is important that Harris shows his Freshman year shooting isn't a fluke because teams will already look at him questionable due to the fact that he is undersized, which means shooting will be even more important for him at the next level against bigger NBA wings. Michigan State lists him at 6-4, while at the Kevin Durant Skills Camp he measured in with only a 6-7 wingspan***, Harris isn't an elite athlete either. He is often compared to Bradley Beal physically, but Beal was bigger, longer, and a better athlete. Blocked shots is usually a good indicator of athletic ability in guards, Harris has blocked 8 shots in his Michigan State career, Beal blocked 31 in seven less games. However, Harris is a good, committed defender, he just may not physically be able to have a huge impact on that end beyond just being above average. As he enters Big 10 conference, Harris will have plenty of opportunities to adjust his shot selection and improve his shooting. In addition to this, if he declares for the draft he will have workouts to show his shooting ability. Harris has improved other parts of his game, but the shooting from three is the key to his draft stock.

*Though in an increased role.

**It is also worth questioning if Harris, who also had offseason shoulder surgery, is simply injury prone
***Via DraftExpress

Rodney Hood: Inside the Numbers

After a solid Freshman season at Mississippi State (10.3 ppg), Rodney Hood sat out for the entire 2012-13 season after transferring to Duke. He received a lot of praise from those who saw him in practices at Duke, and has only lived up to that hype and more through 9 games this season, averaging 19.3 points game with a very impressive shooting line of .589% FG, .536% 3P, .825% FT. At 6-8, he can get his shot off over almost anyone and has improved his ability to create off the dribble and draw fouls. In fact, he has actually take 16 more free throws this season than he did his whole first season at MSU, despite having played 23 less games and 751 less minutes so far this season. This speaks not just to his improvement, but also just how little he attacked off the dribble his Freshman year.  Hood's jump in production isn't just a volume thing either, Hood is actually playing slightly less minutes per game this season and is only taking 1.6 more shots a game. Obviously his usage is higher at Duke, but not 10 points a game worth. No, his jump in production is mainly efficiency. By drawing more fouls, taking better shots, and making more of those shots Hood has made himself in a much better and more efficient all around offensive player. Despite his gaudy stat line, Hood has some issues both in his game and in his production that an overall look at his statistics doesn't reveal and that should be brought up when discussing Hood as an NBA prospect. First, there is a matter of the competition that Hood has put these stats up against. In 9 games, Duke has faced 5 below average to awful teams (2-5 Davidson, 2-6 Florida Atlantic, 1-7 UNC Ashville, 7-2 East Carolina, 3-6 Vermont) against who he has put up this stat line:

24.0 points, 37/52 FG (.711%), 10/14 3P (.714%), 36/42 FT (.857%), 9 assists/7 turnovers

With the exception of A/TO ratio, these are amazing numbers. However, against two very good teams (#2 Arizona, #6 Kansas, both games Duke lost), a middle of the pack SEC team in Alabama that at least has some long athletic defenders, and Michigan, an average Big 10 team; this is what Hood produced:

13.5 points, 19/43 FG (.441%), 5/14 3P (.357%), 11/15 FT (.733%), 8 assists/12 turnovers 

Again, outside of the A/TO ratio, these are not bad numbers at all, but they are more in line with what Hood did at Mississippi State, and nothing near Hood's overall stat line, which is where a lot of his hype at both the college and NBA level has come from. Basically, Hood has gotten fat against bad teams and is more like average against okay to good ones. Most troubling is the discrepancy of free throws attempted, against the bad teams he is taking a whopping 8.4 a game, which is an excellent number, especially for a good jump shooter, but in games against higher levels of competition, Hood is taking a paltry 3.8 a game, which is part of the reason Hood's numbers overall are down. Unable to make plays against more athletic teams, Hood is forced to take more jumpers, which lowers his shooting numbers and efficiency, which in turn lowers his scoring average. It should be noted that almost every college basketball player boosts their numbers against cupcakes, but Hood's is so dramatic, and his overall game is effected so much that this raises questions about his ability to be a scorer in the NBA. The other issue with Hood is his physical profile, Hood is neither long* nor does he appear to be particularly quick, athletic, or strong. Because of this, in addition to already being 21, it is hard to imagine Hood becoming better shot creator, especially at the NBA level where he will be going against even better athletes and defensive players than he has faced so far in college. Defensively, his size is an asset at the shooting guard position but the lack of athleticism and length could hurt his ability to defend there and at small forward, where his lack of strength also hurts him. Offensively, Hood can still contribute to an NBA team and I think he is worthy of a mid-1st round pick at this point, but with the intention of making him a 4th option, not a 2nd or 3rd like his numbers suggest. His game reminds me of Wes Johnson, who was longer and more athletic, but was still primarily a jump shooter because of his lack of ability to create off the dribble. Johnson has been a bust, but he was a good prospect coming out and there is no reason Hood will follow that same route unless some team takes him too high thinking he will be a better offensive player than he is.

*In 2012, at the LeBron James Skills Academy, Hood measure in a 6-8.5 with 6-8 wingspan (via DraftExpress)