2012-13: 29.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.5 tpg
2013-15: 30.1 mpg, 17.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.1 tpg
On a superficial level, Harris is producing at a higher level than last season with only a negligible increase in minutes.* In a sense, that is true, he is rebounding the ball better and become a better playmaker, without turning the ball over much more often. However, it is the scoring number that is misleading, Harris may be scoring more, but he has been doing so much less efficiently:
2012-13: .456 FG%, .411 3P%
2013-14: .403 FG%, .312 3P%
Both Harris' overall shooting percentage and three-point percentage are down significantly, and the reason for his increased scoring is due in large part to taking a greater volume of shots. His shots per game grew from 9.7 in his Freshman year to to 13.9 this year and he is also taking 3.1 more threes per game. Basically, it appears Harris is making more shots because he is taking more shots, not necessarily because he has improved offensively. However, just as the counting stats deceive, so do the shooting percentages. The drain on Harris' percentages are due almost entirely to an extended three-point shooting slump, and to a lesser extent shot selection. In fact, Harris has improved as an offensive player in several ways, despite a much lower FG% this season, Harris has actually improved his efficiency from two-point range:
2012-13: 2-point FG% 85/171 (.497%), 3-point FG% 65/158 (.411%)
2013-14: 2-point FG% 32/62 (.516%), 3-point FG% 24/77 (.312%)
In addition to this, Harris is also drawing more fouls a game (2.9 to 4.2) and converting them at a higher rate than last season. Based on this, if his shooting rebounds he could be an even more effective scorer. Until then, he should attack the basket more and attempt to get to the free throw line. Harris has a nice floater, is good at beating his man, and moves well without the ball so he should be able to find ways to score inside the arc until his shooting stroke returns. The question is, of course, will it return? It is important to note that health may be playing a role in both his shot selection and shooting; Harris has missed 3 games this season with a nagging ankle injury he first hurt over the summer. If he can get healthy**, it could do wonders for his efficiency. Based on the eye test, Harris should bounce back; his stroke looks good and was very effective last season; this is backed up by the fact that he is an excellent free throw shooter converting at a .905% rate, which is usually a sign of a good stroke.
For his draft stock, it is important that Harris shows his Freshman year shooting isn't a fluke because teams will already look at him questionable due to the fact that he is undersized, which means shooting will be even more important for him at the next level against bigger NBA wings. Michigan State lists him at 6-4, while at the Kevin Durant Skills Camp he measured in with only a 6-7 wingspan***, Harris isn't an elite athlete either. He is often compared to Bradley Beal physically, but Beal was bigger, longer, and a better athlete. Blocked shots is usually a good indicator of athletic ability in guards, Harris has blocked 8 shots in his Michigan State career, Beal blocked 31 in seven less games. However, Harris is a good, committed defender, he just may not physically be able to have a huge impact on that end beyond just being above average. As he enters Big 10 conference, Harris will have plenty of opportunities to adjust his shot selection and improve his shooting. In addition to this, if he declares for the draft he will have workouts to show his shooting ability. Harris has improved other parts of his game, but the shooting from three is the key to his draft stock.
*Though in an increased role.
**It is also worth questioning if Harris, who also had offseason shoulder surgery, is simply injury prone
***Via DraftExpress
***Via DraftExpress
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