Showing posts with label spartans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label spartans. Show all posts

Thursday, February 18, 2016

2016 NBA Draft Debate: Buddy Hield vs. Denzel Valentine

Buddy Hield, Oklahoma, Sr.
Vs.
Denzel Valentine, Michigan State, Sr.

Measurements*
Hield 
Height in Shoes: 6-4.5, Weight: 215, Wingspan: 6-8.5, Reach: N/A Age: 22

Valentine
Height in Shoes: 6-5.5, Weight: 223, Wingspan: 6-9.5, Reach: 8-7, Age: 22

Season Stats (as of 2/27)
Hield
34.6 mpg 25.1 ppg 5.5 rpg 2.1 apg 0.4 bpg 1.3 spg 2.9 tpg 2.0 fpg .495 FG% .483 3P% .892 FT%

Valentine
32.5 mpg 19.6 ppg 7.6 rpg 7.3 apg 0.2 bpg 0.9 spg 2.6 tpg 1.8 fpg .473 FG% .451 3P% .845 FT%

Physical Tools
Hield: A little on short side for a shooting guard, but adequate. Very good length that should help make up for so-so height. Could possibly match-up with some small forwards due to length and bulk, though would be at a disadvantage against most bigger 3s. Above-average athlete though not plus, doesn't jump off the page from a explosiveness stand point. Smooth, very co-ordinated.

Valentine: He has very good size and length for a shooting guard, and though he would be on the shorter side for a small forward, he likely would be okay there in some NBA match-ups and might be better there because he can use his strength better. Where Valentine gets dinged is athleticism, though he is smooth, coordinated and fair quick when handling the ball, his vertical and horizontal athleticism appears to be sub-par, particularly his foot speed, which would effect his ability to defend

Shooting and Finishing
Hield: High volume and efficiency shooter, over the last three seasons Hield has shot .408% on 735 three point attempts, though his .483 mark so far this season has skewed the numbers a bit. A .835% free throw shooter. Interestingly, has shot poorly on two-point jumpers the last two seasons, but is undoubtedly and excellent shooter. Off the catch, off the dribble, pulling up, and especially off screens. Is excellent working off the ball to get himself open looks, a natural in the area. Has a quick, compact release. Never lacking in confidence. Shooting, particularly off screens, will likely be his bread and butter in the NBA.
Finishing at the basket, Hield is effective but not entirely explosive, mostly finishing below the rim using length and strength. May struggle some versus length and size while adjusting to better NBA athletes. Hasn't shown anything to suggest he won't at least be an above-average finisher.
Has struggled with questionable shot-selection in the past, somewhat of a gunner at times.

Valentine: Shooting is Valentine's great strength, since his Sophomore year, he has shot .419% on 541 attempts from three and in the last two seasons, he has shot over 40% on two-point jumpers and 82% or better from the line. He is capable of making shots off the dribble, pulling up, spotting up, and coming off of screens.
As a finisher, Valentine uses his length, bulk, and skill to finish, but isn't much of an explosive, above-the-rim finisher. It may take him some time in the NBA to learn how to finish against bigger, long, more athletic players and there is no guarantee he will. Shooting will always be his calling card, but developing and in-between game that will mitigate some of his potential finishing issues would be advantageous.
Valentine could also benefit from a post game. With his bulk and touch, he could be very effective there against shooting guards.

Dribbling
Hield: Comfortable ball-handler, above-average for a shooting guard, though not good enough to function as a primary ball-handler against NBA defensive pressure, though he can certainly improve in this area. Good driving to the rim, able to use both hands. Certainly better with his right, but can use his left driving. Not advanced, but is effective driving straight with a little wiggle. Started his career mostly as a slasher, so has that in his game. Will be most effective attacking off of closeouts.

Valentine: As he plays nominal point guard for Michigan State, Valentine is very comfortable with the ball in his hands. He is able to dribble with his eyes up, which benefits his passing because he is able to see teammates without having to worry about his dribble. Valentine is right-hand dominant though he can use his left, he almost always drive back to his right if he can. On occasion, when given a lane to the left he has driven that way, though he doesn't seem as comfortable doing it as he does going right. Becoming more proficient with his left hand will be crucial once he is in the NBA and facing better more athletic defenders. He doesn't have the handle to function as a primary ballhandler, but should be a plus in a secondary role.

Passing
Hield: A smart player who is capable is making good passes, but just isn't wired that way, Hield is definitely a scorer first-and-foremost. Will occasionally force shots when he should pass, though he has been better in that area of late. In the NBA, Hield will have to be a more willing passer, particularly when the defense is scrambling after an attacked close-out. Very possible with a role change, no longer the alpha dog he is in college, Hield will become a more willing passer, he is definitely a smart player, so it is entirely possible. 

Valentine: This is another area that Valentine really shines, he always keeps his eyes up, looking for teammates. He is especially effective in the open floor with quick hit-ahead passes. The halfcourt, Valentine is mostly looking to drive and kick or find open teammates under the basket. He should be good running pick and roll because he can shoot and handle, but he doesn't do a ton of it at Michigan State. Not the type of player that goes out and runs and offense, more of a give me the ball and let me create type. Should be great as a secondary playmaker and ball-mover when on the floor.

Defense
Hield: Can be a very effect defensive player and has the tools to be very good defending guards, with both lateral quickness and length. However, has struggled with focus and in-attentiveness on that end. The hope is that if as he takes on a lesser role offensively in the NBA, his effort and focus on defense will improve. Due to his length, bulk, and competitiveness Hield should be decent switching onto bigger players on occasion.

Valentine: And here lies the rub with Valentine. For all his excellent as an offensive player, his defense is just as questionable. Valentine simply lacks the foot speed at this time to be effective. During his time at Michigan State, the Spartans frequently rolled help his way. Improving foot speed and horizontal athleticism is far from impossible, especially in the NBA, but it is no guarantee of success. One possible solution would be matching Valentine up against small forwards that would have more trouble blowing by him. He has good bulk and should be able to battle bigger players enough to be effective. As a bench player, which Valentine will likely be, he could also be deployed against shooting guards that are non-threats off the dribble and just spot-up players.
He isn't a very impactful defender either, blocking few shots and creating little in the way of turnovers.
Valentine is also a tough rebounder and provides value in this area.

Intangibles
Hield: Renown for his hard work and how he has improved his game. Appears to be a leader for the Sooners who has willingly taken on the role of the go-to scorer.

Valentine: Appears to be a hard worker and team leader. Has improved in all areas of his offensive game every season in college.

Conclusion
Both Hield and Valentine will be First Team All-Americans this year and are stars in college that project to more role players in the NBA. Both will be shooters first and foremost, but with different added secondary skills, so it depends on what you're looking for. Valentine is a much better distributor and playmaker, while Hield has the physical gifts to be a better defender, an area where Valentine may struggle. Hield has a better chance of being a starter because of his potential defensively, but Valentine is a more versatile offensive player. It is hard to separate the two, but I would say Hield just by a nose because of defense and the potential to be able to play more minutes. Though it is closer than some pundits have it.

*Measurements from 2015 Nike Skills Academy via DraftExpress.com

Follow me at twitter.com/double_tech

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

NBA Draft: Adreian Payne Scouting Report

Measurements
Age: 23; Height: 6-10; Weight: 245; Wingspan: 7-4

Season Stats (as of 2/17)
28.6 mpg, 16.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.9 bpg, 1.9 tpg, 2.7 fpg, .526 FG, .790 FT, .431 3P

Strengths
-Prototypical height/weight/length/athleticism
-Explosive leaper, even from a standstill
-Runs the floor well
-Quick, mobile
-Great hands on lobs, on the move
-Strong, high efficiency finisher
-Solid post game
-Much improved jump shooter
-3-point range
-Pick-and-roll/pop threat
-Good foul shooter
-Very good defender
-Length and athleticism are very disruptive
-Gives great effort, particularly on D
-Solid rebounder, tools to be better
-High floor, great role player potential

Weaknesses
-Needs to better redistribute weight/strength
-Can be a little robotic
-Slowish release on jumper
-Turnover prone
-Questionable feel on offense
-Underwhelming rebounding/shot blocking totals
-Should be better on the glass
-Capped upside due to age
-Struggled with injuries in 2014

NBA Comparison
There aren't a lot of long, athletic big men with top defensive chops that are also excellent shooters, but Serge Ibaka fits the bill. Payne isn't likely going to be that level of a player because he isn't as good defenively as Ibaka, but he could still be a very valuable player. Another difference between the two? Ibaka, 5 years into his NBA career, is just 17 months older than Payne.

Draft Projection
If he had this skillset as a 18-20 year old, he would be a top 10 pick at least, but at 23 Payne is much more likely to fit in from 15-25 in the first round. His shooting/defense combination will interest teams looking to stretch 4 and defensive big man. Payne has big time role player potential and should stick around for a long time if he continues to shoot 35-40% on 3s.

Follow me on Twitter @double_tech

Friday, January 3, 2014

Gary Harris: Inside the Numbers

During the 2012-13 season, Freshman guard Gary Harris was critical to a Michigan State teamthat  reached the Sweet 16. He was second on the team in scoring and one Freshman of the Year in the Big 10. In the offseason Harris eschewed the NBA Draft, where he would have been a lottery pick, possibly in the top 10, and returned for his Sophomore season. Based on his counting stats, Harris made a good choice:

2012-13: 29.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.5 tpg
2013-15: 30.1 mpg, 17.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.0 apg, 2.1 tpg

On a superficial level, Harris is producing at a higher level than last season with only a negligible increase in minutes.* In a sense, that is true, he is rebounding the ball better and become a better playmaker, without turning the ball over much more often. However, it is the scoring number that is misleading, Harris may be scoring more, but he has been doing so much less efficiently:

2012-13: .456 FG%, .411 3P%
2013-14: .403 FG%, .312 3P%

Both Harris' overall shooting percentage and three-point percentage are down significantly, and the reason for his increased scoring is due in large part to taking a greater volume of shots. His shots per game grew from 9.7 in his Freshman year to to 13.9 this year and he is also taking 3.1 more threes per game. Basically, it appears Harris is making more shots because he is taking more shots, not necessarily because he has improved offensively. However, just as the counting stats deceive, so do the shooting percentages. The drain on Harris' percentages are due almost entirely to an extended three-point shooting slump, and to a lesser extent shot selection. In fact, Harris has improved as an offensive player in several ways, despite a much lower FG% this season, Harris has actually improved his efficiency from two-point range:

2012-13: 2-point FG% 85/171 (.497%), 3-point FG% 65/158 (.411%)
2013-14: 2-point FG% 32/62 (.516%), 3-point FG% 24/77 (.312%)

In addition to this, Harris is also drawing more fouls a game (2.9 to 4.2) and converting them at a higher rate than last season. Based on this, if his shooting rebounds he could be an even more effective scorer. Until then, he should attack the basket more and attempt to get to the free throw line.  Harris has a nice floater, is good at beating his man, and moves well without the ball so he should be able to find ways to score inside the arc until his shooting stroke returns. The question is, of course, will it return? It is important to note that health may be playing a role in both his shot selection and shooting; Harris has missed 3 games this season with a nagging ankle injury he first hurt over the summer. If he can get healthy**, it could do wonders for his efficiency. Based on the eye test, Harris should bounce back; his stroke looks good and was very effective last season; this is backed up by the fact that he is an excellent free throw shooter converting at a .905% rate, which is usually a sign of a good stroke. 

For his draft stock, it is important that Harris shows his Freshman year shooting isn't a fluke because teams will already look at him questionable due to the fact that he is undersized, which means shooting will be even more important for him at the next level against bigger NBA wings. Michigan State lists him at 6-4, while at the Kevin Durant Skills Camp he measured in with only a 6-7 wingspan***, Harris isn't an elite athlete either. He is often compared to Bradley Beal physically, but Beal was bigger, longer, and a better athlete. Blocked shots is usually a good indicator of athletic ability in guards, Harris has blocked 8 shots in his Michigan State career, Beal blocked 31 in seven less games. However, Harris is a good, committed defender, he just may not physically be able to have a huge impact on that end beyond just being above average. As he enters Big 10 conference, Harris will have plenty of opportunities to adjust his shot selection and improve his shooting. In addition to this, if he declares for the draft he will have workouts to show his shooting ability. Harris has improved other parts of his game, but the shooting from three is the key to his draft stock.

*Though in an increased role.
**It is also worth questioning if Harris, who also had offseason shoulder surgery, is simply injury prone
***Via DraftExpress