Thursday, February 18, 2016

2016 NBA Draft Debate: Buddy Hield vs. Denzel Valentine

Buddy Hield, Oklahoma, Sr.
Vs.
Denzel Valentine, Michigan State, Sr.

Measurements*
Hield 
Height in Shoes: 6-4.5, Weight: 215, Wingspan: 6-8.5, Reach: N/A Age: 22

Valentine
Height in Shoes: 6-5.5, Weight: 223, Wingspan: 6-9.5, Reach: 8-7, Age: 22

Season Stats (as of 2/27)
Hield
34.6 mpg 25.1 ppg 5.5 rpg 2.1 apg 0.4 bpg 1.3 spg 2.9 tpg 2.0 fpg .495 FG% .483 3P% .892 FT%

Valentine
32.5 mpg 19.6 ppg 7.6 rpg 7.3 apg 0.2 bpg 0.9 spg 2.6 tpg 1.8 fpg .473 FG% .451 3P% .845 FT%

Physical Tools
Hield: A little on short side for a shooting guard, but adequate. Very good length that should help make up for so-so height. Could possibly match-up with some small forwards due to length and bulk, though would be at a disadvantage against most bigger 3s. Above-average athlete though not plus, doesn't jump off the page from a explosiveness stand point. Smooth, very co-ordinated.

Valentine: He has very good size and length for a shooting guard, and though he would be on the shorter side for a small forward, he likely would be okay there in some NBA match-ups and might be better there because he can use his strength better. Where Valentine gets dinged is athleticism, though he is smooth, coordinated and fair quick when handling the ball, his vertical and horizontal athleticism appears to be sub-par, particularly his foot speed, which would effect his ability to defend

Shooting and Finishing
Hield: High volume and efficiency shooter, over the last three seasons Hield has shot .408% on 735 three point attempts, though his .483 mark so far this season has skewed the numbers a bit. A .835% free throw shooter. Interestingly, has shot poorly on two-point jumpers the last two seasons, but is undoubtedly and excellent shooter. Off the catch, off the dribble, pulling up, and especially off screens. Is excellent working off the ball to get himself open looks, a natural in the area. Has a quick, compact release. Never lacking in confidence. Shooting, particularly off screens, will likely be his bread and butter in the NBA.
Finishing at the basket, Hield is effective but not entirely explosive, mostly finishing below the rim using length and strength. May struggle some versus length and size while adjusting to better NBA athletes. Hasn't shown anything to suggest he won't at least be an above-average finisher.
Has struggled with questionable shot-selection in the past, somewhat of a gunner at times.

Valentine: Shooting is Valentine's great strength, since his Sophomore year, he has shot .419% on 541 attempts from three and in the last two seasons, he has shot over 40% on two-point jumpers and 82% or better from the line. He is capable of making shots off the dribble, pulling up, spotting up, and coming off of screens.
As a finisher, Valentine uses his length, bulk, and skill to finish, but isn't much of an explosive, above-the-rim finisher. It may take him some time in the NBA to learn how to finish against bigger, long, more athletic players and there is no guarantee he will. Shooting will always be his calling card, but developing and in-between game that will mitigate some of his potential finishing issues would be advantageous.
Valentine could also benefit from a post game. With his bulk and touch, he could be very effective there against shooting guards.

Dribbling
Hield: Comfortable ball-handler, above-average for a shooting guard, though not good enough to function as a primary ball-handler against NBA defensive pressure, though he can certainly improve in this area. Good driving to the rim, able to use both hands. Certainly better with his right, but can use his left driving. Not advanced, but is effective driving straight with a little wiggle. Started his career mostly as a slasher, so has that in his game. Will be most effective attacking off of closeouts.

Valentine: As he plays nominal point guard for Michigan State, Valentine is very comfortable with the ball in his hands. He is able to dribble with his eyes up, which benefits his passing because he is able to see teammates without having to worry about his dribble. Valentine is right-hand dominant though he can use his left, he almost always drive back to his right if he can. On occasion, when given a lane to the left he has driven that way, though he doesn't seem as comfortable doing it as he does going right. Becoming more proficient with his left hand will be crucial once he is in the NBA and facing better more athletic defenders. He doesn't have the handle to function as a primary ballhandler, but should be a plus in a secondary role.

Passing
Hield: A smart player who is capable is making good passes, but just isn't wired that way, Hield is definitely a scorer first-and-foremost. Will occasionally force shots when he should pass, though he has been better in that area of late. In the NBA, Hield will have to be a more willing passer, particularly when the defense is scrambling after an attacked close-out. Very possible with a role change, no longer the alpha dog he is in college, Hield will become a more willing passer, he is definitely a smart player, so it is entirely possible. 

Valentine: This is another area that Valentine really shines, he always keeps his eyes up, looking for teammates. He is especially effective in the open floor with quick hit-ahead passes. The halfcourt, Valentine is mostly looking to drive and kick or find open teammates under the basket. He should be good running pick and roll because he can shoot and handle, but he doesn't do a ton of it at Michigan State. Not the type of player that goes out and runs and offense, more of a give me the ball and let me create type. Should be great as a secondary playmaker and ball-mover when on the floor.

Defense
Hield: Can be a very effect defensive player and has the tools to be very good defending guards, with both lateral quickness and length. However, has struggled with focus and in-attentiveness on that end. The hope is that if as he takes on a lesser role offensively in the NBA, his effort and focus on defense will improve. Due to his length, bulk, and competitiveness Hield should be decent switching onto bigger players on occasion.

Valentine: And here lies the rub with Valentine. For all his excellent as an offensive player, his defense is just as questionable. Valentine simply lacks the foot speed at this time to be effective. During his time at Michigan State, the Spartans frequently rolled help his way. Improving foot speed and horizontal athleticism is far from impossible, especially in the NBA, but it is no guarantee of success. One possible solution would be matching Valentine up against small forwards that would have more trouble blowing by him. He has good bulk and should be able to battle bigger players enough to be effective. As a bench player, which Valentine will likely be, he could also be deployed against shooting guards that are non-threats off the dribble and just spot-up players.
He isn't a very impactful defender either, blocking few shots and creating little in the way of turnovers.
Valentine is also a tough rebounder and provides value in this area.

Intangibles
Hield: Renown for his hard work and how he has improved his game. Appears to be a leader for the Sooners who has willingly taken on the role of the go-to scorer.

Valentine: Appears to be a hard worker and team leader. Has improved in all areas of his offensive game every season in college.

Conclusion
Both Hield and Valentine will be First Team All-Americans this year and are stars in college that project to more role players in the NBA. Both will be shooters first and foremost, but with different added secondary skills, so it depends on what you're looking for. Valentine is a much better distributor and playmaker, while Hield has the physical gifts to be a better defender, an area where Valentine may struggle. Hield has a better chance of being a starter because of his potential defensively, but Valentine is a more versatile offensive player. It is hard to separate the two, but I would say Hield just by a nose because of defense and the potential to be able to play more minutes. Though it is closer than some pundits have it.

*Measurements from 2015 Nike Skills Academy via DraftExpress.com

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