These rankings try to balance upside and risk, it could be flip-flopped how you like depending on if you value upside or safety. In this draft, which is pretty weak overall as we see it now, I lean toward safety but last year, I leaned upside. It really depends on personal preference and the particular draft. Player comparisons are inherently silly, but they are presented to give you an idea of the style of play, strengths, and weaknesses of each player. The designations of #x scorer or #x creator refers to the players on the floor, not on a team. So Buddy Hield wouldn't be the #2/3 scorer on a team, but of the players on the floor at the time, he could be. Enjoy!
Tier 1: Potential Perennial All-NBA
None.
Tier 2: Potential All-Stars
01. Brandon Ingram, SF DukeUpside: #1/2 scorer, plus defensive player
Risk: Body doesn't develop, lack of plus first step causes issues creating shots
Player Comparison: Rashard Lewis
02. Ben Simmons, PF LSU
Upside: #1 creator, #2/3 scorer, plus rebounder, average defensive player
Risk: Shot never develops, allowing teams to lay off and clog the lane, unable to score in half-court, effort on defense doesn't improve, lack of length leads to poor defense
Player Comparison: Lamar Odom
Tier 3: Potential Plus Rotation Players
03. Dragan Bender, PF Maccabi Tel Aviv
Upside: Plus-Plus defensive player, #3 scorer
Risk: Body and jump shot don't develop
Player Comparison: Andrei Kirilenko
04. Jaylen Brown, SF California
Upside: Plus defensive player, #2/3 scorer
Risk: Jump shots fails to develop.
Player Comparison: Justise Winslow
05. Kris Dunn, PG Providence
Upside: #1 creator, Plus-plus defensive player, #3 scorer
Risk: Injuries crop back up, jumpshot never becomes consistent, turnovers
Player Comparison: bigger Derek Harper
06. Jamal Murray, SG Kentucky
Upside: #2/3 scorer, #2 creator, average defensive player
Risk: Average athleticism limits creation and defense
Player Comparison: Somewhere between O.J. Mayo and D'Angelo Russell
07. Henry Ellenson, PF Marquette
Upside: #2 scorer, plus rebounder, average defensive player
Risk: Jumper never comes around, struggled versus length, below average defensive player
Player Comparison: Nikola Mirotic
08. Jakob Poeltl, C Utah
Upside: Plus defensive player, plus rebounder, #4 scorer
Risk: Post game never translates, skill doesn't develop
Player Comparison: Steven Adams
09. Wade Baldwin IV, PG Vanderbilt
Upside: Plus shooter, Plus defender, #3 scorer, #1/2 creator
Risk: Fails to grow as a point guard, defensive tools don't turn into production
Player Comparison: Terry Porter
10. Furkan Korkmaz, SG Anadolu Efes
Upside: #2/3 scorer, plus shooter, above-average defender
Risk: Body doesn't develop, skill doesn't translate to NBA
Player Comparison: Kerry Kittles
11. Denzel Valentine, SG Michigan State
Upside: #3 scorer, #2 creator, plus shooter, average defender
Risk: Defensive issue relegate him to limited role
Player Comparison: better passing Matt Harpring
12. Buddy Hield, SG Oklahoma
Upside: #2/3 scorer, plus shooter, above-average defender
Risk: More a 35% three-point shooter than 40%, inattentivness on defense limits playing time
Player Comparison: Lindsey Hunter
13. Marquese Chriss, PF Washington
Upside: #3 scorer, above-average rebounder and defender, plus versatility
Risk: Body doesn't develop, shooting never because a weapon, never puts it all together
Player Comparison: Somewhere between James Michael McAdoo and Antwan Jamison
14. Demetrius Jackson, PG Notre Dame
Upside: #2 creator, above average shooter and defender
Risk: Lack of size/length contributes to defensive struggles, doesn't find scoring/passing balance
Player Comparison: Kyle Lowry
15. Timothe Luwawu, SF Mega Leks
Upside: #3/4 scorer, plus defender
Risk: Shooting improvements aren't for real
Player Comparison: Doug Christie
Tier 4: Potential Rotation Players
16. Ivan Rabb, PF California
Upside: #3/4 big man, above-average defensive player and rebounder
Risk: Body doesn't develop, doesn't develop a dominant skill, never stands out
Player Comparison: Taj Gibson
17. Diamond Stone, C Maryland
Upside: #3/4 big man, above-average rebound, average defender
Risk: Struggles against length/athleticism, passing/feel doesn't develop, defense limits playing time
Player Comparison: Greg Smith
18. Skal Labissiere, PF Kentucky
Upside: #2/3 big man, above-average to plus shooter, above-average defender
Risk: Body never develops, lack of strength and feel make him barely playable
Player Comparison: less skilled David West
19. Petr Cornelie, PF Le Mans
Upside: Backup power forward, plus shooter and plus defender
Risk: Strength and lack of length lead to defensive liabilities
Player Comparison: Channing Frye
23. Taurean Prince, SF Baylor
Upside: 3-and-D combo forward, above-average shooter and defender, plus rebounder
Risk: Shooting and defense don't translate
Player Comparison: Somewhere between Robert Covington and Trevor Ariza
21. Stephen Zimmerman Jr, C UNLV
Upside: #3/4 big man, above-average offensive shooter, rebounder, and defensive player
Risk: No part of his game evolves, leaving a vanilla overall player
Player Comparison: Raef LaFrentz
22. Nigel Hayes, PF Wisconsin
Upside: Backup power forward, plus creator and shooter for a big, above-average defender
Risk: Overmatched against bigger players, shoots more around 30% from three rather than 35%+
Player Comparison: shorter, longer Nikola Mirotic
23. Melo Trimble, PG Maryland
Upside: #3/4 scorer and #2 creator
Risk: Lack of size/length limit offensive and defensive production
Player Comparison: B.J. Armstrong
24. Caris LeVert, SG Michigan
Upside: #3/4 scorer, #2 creator, plus shooter, average defensive player
Risk: Lower body injuries continue to plague his career, aggressiveness
Player Comparison: Michael Finley
25. Domantas Sabonis, F/C Gonzaga
Upside: #3/4 big man, plus rebounder and finisher, above-average defensive player
Risk: Lack of physical advantages limit defensive upside and ability to finish vs. length
Player Comparison: P.J. Brown
26. Malik Beasley, SG Florida State
Upside: #3/4 scorer, plus shooter, above-average defensive player
Risk: Doesn't develop any in-between game or become more efficient from two point range
Player Comparison: Allen Crabbe
27. Monte Morris, PG Iowa State
Upside: #1 creator and above-average shooter
Risk: Lack of size and length limit defense and ability to finish
Player Comparison: Brian Roberts
28. Patrick McCaw, SG UNLV
Upside: #3/4 scorer, #2 creator, above-average shooter and defensive player
Risk: Body, strength, and shooting don't develop
Player Comparison: Will Barton
Tier 5: Risky, High Reward Prospects
29. Jonathan Jeanne, C Le Mans
Upside: #3 scorer, plus shooter, defensive player, and rebounder
Risk: Frail body doesn't develop, affecting every single aspect of his game
30. Thomas Bryant, C Indiana
Upside: #2/3 big man, plus rebounder, above-average defensive player
Risk: Doesn't improve his feel, pick and roll defense, or shooting
31. A.J. Hammons, C Purdue
Upside: #3 big man, plus rebounder, defensive player, and pick-and-roll player
Risk: Lack of feel and polish lead to underachieving, conditioning issues return
32. Cheick Diallo, C Kansas
Upside: #3/4 big man, plus-plus defensive player
Risk: Lack of polish and offensive game limit minutes severely
33. Deyonta Davis, PF Michigan State
Upside: #3/4 big man, above-average shooter for a big, plus rebounder and defensive player
Risk: Simply doesn't develop as an offensive or defensive player
34. Paul Zipser, SF Bayern Muenchen
Upside: #3/4 scorer, plus defender, above-average shooter
Risk: Shot doesn't develop or regresses, limiting his ability to drive or score
35. Ante Zizic, C Cibona Zagreb
Upside: #3/4 big man, plus rebounder and defensive player
Risk: Offense doesn't develop enough to play significant minutes
36. Zhou Qi, C Xinjiang
Upside: #2/3 big man, plus defensive player, above-average shooter for a big man
Risk: Frail body doesn't develop, affecting every single aspect of his game, toughness wanes
37. Juan Hernangomez, PF Estudiantes
Upside: #3/4 big man, above-average shooter for a big, average defensive player
Risk: Lack of length and athletic ability limits both offense and defense
Player Comparison:
38. Gary Payton II, Oregon State
Upside: #2 creator, #3/4 scorer, plus-plus defensive player
Risk: Jumper limits offensive upside
39. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, SG Kansas
Upside: #3/4 scorer, plus shooter, above-average defensive player
Risk: Continues to fail to deliver on abilities
40. Ivica Zubac, C Mega Leks
Upside: #3/4 big man, above-average defensive and pick-and-roll player
Risk: Offense and defense fail to develop to playable levels
Tier 6: Risky, Medium Reward Prospects
41. Chinanu Onuaku, C Louisville
Upside: #3/4 big man, plus defensive player and rebounder
Risk: Lack of offense makes him hard to play
42. Kay Felder, PG Oakland
Upside: #1 creator, plus shooter, average defensive player
Risk: Lack of size limits ability to score and defend
43. Tyler Ulis, PG Kentucky
Upside: #1 creator off bench, above-average shooter and average defensive player
Risk: Lack of size, bulk, and length limit ability to score and defend
44. Justin Jackson, SF North Carolina
Upside: #3 creator, #4 scorer, above-average shooter and defender
Risk: Fails to live up to abilities, continues to be a bad shoot, doesn't mature physically
45. Grayson Allen, SG Duke
Upside: #3/4 scorer, plus shooter, above-average defender
Risk: Doesn't live up to tools and continues to be a poor defender, driving ability doesn't develop
46. Isaiah Briscoe, G Kentucky
Upside: #2 creator, plus defensive player
Risk: Terrible shooting makes him unplayable
47. Brice Johnson, PF North Carolina
Upside: #3/4 big man, plus rebounder, above-average pick-and-roll finisher
Risk: Body fails to develop, lack of defense makes him difficult to play
48. Malik Newman, SG Mississippi State
Upside: #3/4 scorer, plus shooter
Risk: Never becomes more than a one-diamensional gunner that isn't even that good at gunning
49. Jake Layman, PF Maryland
Upside: #3/4 big man, above-average shooter and creator, as a power forward
Risk: Plays more as a wing and doesn't have the ability to score against wings
50. Damian Jones, PF Vanderbilt
Upside: #3/4 big man, plus defensive player
Risk: Lack of feel continues to limit his production and rebounding
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