Thursday, April 30, 2015

Draft Debate: Kevon Looney vs. Christian Wood

Kevon Looney, Freshman, UCLA


vs.
Christian Wood, Sophomore, UNLV



Measurements*
Looney - Age: 19, Height: 6-9, Weight: 220, Wingspan: 7-3, Reach: 9-1½
Wood - Age: 19, Height: 6-11, Weight: 220, Wingspan: 7-2

Season Stats
Looney - 30.9 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.9 bpg, 1.3 tpg, 2.9 fpg, 47%/42%/63%
Wood - 32.9 mpg, 15.5 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.4 apg, 2.6 bpg, 2.5 tpg, 2.6 fpg, 49%/28%/73%

Stats Per 40
Looney - 14.9 ppg, 11.9 rpg (4.4 orpg, 7.5 drpg), 1.8 apg, 1.7 spg, 1.1 bpg, 1.6 tpg, 3.7 fpg
Wood - 18.8 ppg, 11.9 rpg (3.4 orpg, 8.5 drpg), 1.4 apg, 0.4 spg, 3.2 bpg, 3 tpg, 3.2 fpg

Advanced Stats
Looney - 22.4 PER, .532 TS%, .505 eFG%, 14.9 usage rate, 48% 2P
Wood - 25.1 PER, .572 TS%, .521 eFG%, 21.9 usage rate, 56% 2P

Statistics vs. Like Opponents (Arizona and Utah)
Looney - 122 minutes, 7.5 ppg, 5 rpg, 9/28 FG, 4/8 3P, 8/10 FT, 0.5 bpg
Wood - 64 minutes, 16 ppg, 11.5 rpg, 14/27 FG, 0/4 3P, 4/4 FT, 3 bpg

National Rankings
Looney - ESPN: 9th, CBS: 14th, DraftExpress: 18th
Wood - ESPN: 20th, CBS: 18th, DraftExpress: 23rd

Physical/Athletic Ability
Overall, both Looney and Wood are similar profiles. The are both lean with long arms, above-average quickness and very good, but not necessarily "jump off the page" vertical athleticism. Wood is taller, while Looney is perhaps a but bulkier at this point. Gaining strength will be the main goal of both for the next couple years.

Offense
Looney - The majority of Looney's offense at this point comes in the paint: 62% of his shots are at the rim with over half of those (32%) coming on put-backs, and 29% of all his shots from offensive rebounds. This becomes especially pertinent because Looney averages 3.4 offensive rebounds a game. However, there is good and bad to more than a quarter of a players offense coming off of offensive rebounds; the good is that it means Looney doesn't need plays run for him, and is always a threat to score. The bad is that it can show that a player isn't able to create their own shot as easily at the college level as you might like. This is a concern for Looney, who has little post game and while a good ball-handler for a power forward, is limited mostly to straight line drives from the perimeter. The skill where Looney has the most potential for growth is also the area he is currently most overrated in: shooting. Looney has good mechanics and should be a good shooter down the line, but those that view him as one now and or project a plus shooter down the line are looking too much at the 3-point percentage that, while good, comes from a very limited sample 53 attempts. This wouldn't be as much of a red flag if the rest of his shooting numbers weren't so concerning: on 2-point jumpers is shots away from the rim, Looney is shooting just 26% (a really bad number) while on free throws he is making 63% (below average). Again, Looney has the tools to be a better shooter but he is perhaps considerably farther off from being an impact shooter than is commonly thought. Some also consider Looney a possible candidate for transition from power forward to small forward, but unless the shooting improves or he becomes a much more advanced ball-handler, he would struggle there. His shooting and handle will play against power forwards, but against wing players? Not so much. Also, you'll be moving his best skill, offensive rebounding, further away from the basket. To live up to his lottery hype and become a consistent offensive contributor, Looney will need one more skill to add to his work on the offensive glass; the best candidate is the jumpshot because his size limits his post up potential. However, the jumper is no lock to get better and will require work.

Wood - Like Looney, Christian Wood gets a significant portion of his shots from offensive rebounds (22%) but takes a significantly less percentage of his shots at the rim (43%) as compared to Looney's 52% and converts them at a slightly higher rate (65% to 62%). Wood is a good ball-handler for his size, but is also somewhat limited to mostly straight line drives off of closeouts or when a defender is leaning too far one way. Like Looney, his quickness can be a weapon especially vs. slower-footed big men as his handle tightens up. Strength-wise, Wood just isn't built to be much of a post threat though he has the length and decent touch to have potential in that area. Wood is sort of the opposite of Looney, with a poor percentage from 3-point range (28% on 88 attempts) but much better shooting stats elsewhere. including an excellent 45% on 2-point jumpers and a career 75% on free throws. If Wood cuts 3s out of his game, focusing on mid-range shots until he develops range out to the 3-point range, he will be much more efficient while still providing spacing. Like with Looney, it isn't a lock that he gains a 3-point shot, but his underlying shooting stats back up that he is more likely to than Looney. Shooting will be crucial for Wood because it will cause defenders to close out harder, opening up more space to drive to the rim.

Defense and Rebounding
Looney - As was covered earlier, Looney is a tremendous offensive rebounder; his 3.4 offensive rebounds per game was 25th best in country while only Jahlil Okafor and Bobby Portis grabbed more per game among players likely to be taken in the draft. Defensively, he is still solid but not elite, grabbing 5.8 a game, good for 56th in the country. In both cases, Looney uses mostly length, quickness, and activity in order to get to rebounds, he isn't rooting opponents out of the way or simply towering over smaller guys, which means his rebounding will translate better because opponent size and strength won't matter as much in the equation. Defensively, he has some definite strengths and weaknesses. The area where he is likely to be of most use is versatility; Because of his quickness and lateral agility, Looney will be able to guard perimeter based 4s, switch onto perimeter players, and defend pick-and-rolls. He has quick hands with good anticipation intercepting passes and should be at creating turnovers. In the post, Looney is just not strong enough at this point to hold up defending against bigger opponents, another reason focusing on building strength will be crucial to his success. As a help defender and shot-blocker, Looney is willing but not incredibly instinctive in this area, his low block total (0.9 a game) is indicative of this. He has the length and mobility to be a solid help defender, but is a step behind many big men in this area, possibly because he spent so much time on the perimeter, defending 3s throughout his career.

Wood - By defensive rebounds per game, Wood is the best defensive rebounder in the draft, averaging 7.1 a game (11th in the country) while offensively he ranked 81st with 2.9. Like Looney, he doesn't do it with strength, instead using activity, long arms, and athleticism. Defensively, he has similar versatility to Looney because of his lateral quickness and long arms, he should be good defending on the perimeter and against pick-and-roll. As a post defender he also needs to get stronger in order to be not pushed around too much, though at his height he should be bother post players some. Where Wood is clearly ahead of Looney is as a rim protector and shot blocker. For Wood, his long arms and athletic ability are just the start, what makes him such a good shot blocker is his mobility and instincts, he can cover a lot of ground and times his challenges well. It is also important to note that Wood frequently played forward, not center, at UNLV which mean he had to work harder to protect the rim because he wasn't always positioned right under it.

NBA Comparison
Looney - Looney is a tough one, he has a body and play style similar to Jeff Green but rebounds more like Al-Farouq Aminu. Both are useful NBA players that always leave you wanting more, which is where I would project Looney to end up.

Wood - Physically, he is built like John Henson and plays defense in a similar style. Offensively, Henson is more of a dink-and-dunk type player while Wood has a legitimate jump-shot. Henson with a jumper is a valuable player.

Conclusion
Looney is ranked above Wood basically everywhere, but I am not sure I see why. They have similar physical tool except that Wood is taller. Offensively, Wood has shown to be a more consistent shooter while he is way ahead as a defender and a defensive rebounder. Looney has the edge really only as an offensive rebounder. Give me Christian Wood.

*Height and weight are from the school listing, wingspan and reach come from USA Basketball in 2013 for Looney and LeBron James Camp in 2012 for Wood, both via DraftExpress. This will be updated after the Chicago combine.

Disagree?

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Tuesday, April 28, 2015

2015 NBA Mock Draft (4/28)


Mock drafts before the lottery can seem like pointless exercises, but they are useful in gauging team needs and what players will likely be available around when they pick. No matter who wins the lottery or where teams move, they aren't going that far from where they are currently situated. This draft is what I currently think will happen, not necessarily what should happen.

1. Minnesota Timberwolves (25%): Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C Kentucky (6-11, 250) Age: 19
The Timberwolves look to have a future superstar in Andrew Wiggins and young building blocks in Ricky Rubio and Gorgui Dieng as well as a collection of young talents that may turn into above-average NBA players. Add to that potentially a top overall pick and no worse than a top 5 pick and you have a future contender. If they do land the top pick, as the odds favor, then they could honestly consider any of the top 4 talents, but Towns is the obvious pick because he is the best prospect and will give Minnesota a backbone on both offense and defense.

2. New York Knicks (19.9%): Jahlil Okafor, C Duke (6-11, 270) Age: 19
For the Knicks, it may be best for them to fall a spot in the lottery and "lose out" on Okafor, who is a wonderful talent but perhaps not the best fit for the Knicks offense. Okafor has some question marks, but their is no denying his ability to score in the paint and rebound, but how he functions along side Carmelo and in the triangle is anyone's guess. Still, at this point the Knicks should be married to neither their system nor Derek Fisher as coach and their primary goal should be acquiring talent for the next great Knicks team, not to fit the triangle.

3. Philadelphia 76ers (15.6%): D'Angelo Russell, G Ohio State (6-5, 180) Age: 19
The 76ers had as successful as season you can have when winning only 18 games. Nerlens Noel showed himself to a legitimate piece, Jerami Grant, Tony Wroten, and Robert Covington emerged as potential role players all while Joel Embiid got healthy. Now they need an engine to make the team run and D'Angelo Russell is ideally suited to that role as perimeter alpha dog because he can both score and distribute with equal excellence. At his best, Russell can be a 20 point a game scorer averaging 8+ assists and shooting over 40% from 3.

4. Los Angeles Lakers (11.9%): Emmanuel Mudiay, PG Guandong (6-5, 200) Age: 19
The Lakers basically need talent at every position and Emmanuel Mudiay is the last of the elite tier of four atop the draft, so any other pick would be a mistake. Mudiay is the kind of talent that can help turn the Lakers around, both with his on court impact but also the ability to attract free agents that will want to play with a young point guard that loves to push the ball and plays very hard defensively. Of course, the Lakers will probably but impatient and sign Rajon Rondo then trade this pick for some role players in an effort to "win now".

5. Orlando Magic (8.8%): Justise Winslow, SF Duke (6-6, 225) Age: 19
The Magic will hope to jump into the top four and get one of those elite prospects, but if not Justise Winslow or Willie Cauley-Stein wouldn't be a terrible consolation prize. Winslow fits Orlando's draft profile of high character defenders who love the game and winning. Winslow will also benefit the Magic offense because of his ability to shoot, handle the ball, and pass. Wille Cauley-Stein would make sense also to help offset Nikola Vucevic's defensive woes, as would Mario Hezonja to help upgrade their anemic offense.

6. Sacramento Kings (6.3%): Willie Cauley-Stein, C Kentucky (7-0, 240) Age: 21
Since it is uncertain who exactly is making the decisions at this point in Sacramento, trying to predict what they will do is somewhat of a crapshoot. Sacramento was middle of the road offensively, but were bottom 5 defensively. Willie Cauley-Stein may not be an obvious fit next to DeMarcus Cousins, but I actually think it is a great because Cousins can carry the load offensively while WCS can orchestrate the defense, which would be definitely upgraded by his presence due to his ability to guard all 5 positions and protect the rim.

7. Denver Nuggets (4.3%): Mario Hezonja, G/F Barcelona (6-8, 200) Age: 20
Like Orlando, the Nuggets don't have a coach yet, so their decision making process could be a greatly affected once they hire one. Still, they have some obvious needs, mainly acquiring talent everywhere but point guard and center. Mario Hezonja is one of the most talented players in the draft and Denver has shown a proclivity to dip into international prospects, so the fit is obvious, especially when you consider that Randy Foye was Denver's starter at shooting guard last season. Hezonja may have an adjustment period but by the end of his rookie season I'd expect him to not only be starting, but excelling.

8. Detroit Pistons (2.8%): Kristaps Porzingis, PF Sevilla (7-0, 220) Age: 19
Greg Monroe is an unrestricted free agent and will likely not be back in Detroit so the Pistons will likely be looking for a long term starter to pair with Andre Drummond. Kristaps Porzingis would be an ideal fit there because he is such a skilled perimeter player who can stretch the floor. He is also a great athlete who can block shots and won't hurt Detroit's defense once he has grown into his body. Porzingis has star potential and would be a great fit in Stan Van Gundy's offense, sort of a cross between peak Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu with better defense.

9. Charlotte Hornets (1.7%): Stanley Johnson, SF Arizona (6-7, 245) Age: 18
What the Hornets most need is a point guard that can relegate Kemba Walker to a bench role (where he would be awesome) but considering the contract they just gave him, it's unlikely to happen. In lieu of that, they will be in the market for some wing players because both Gerald Henderson and Jeff Taylor are free agents, while Lance Stephenson is born ready for the bench. After Stanley Johnson there is a drop off in prospects, so they'd be smart to take him even if it didn't fill a need, which it does. Johnson is similar to Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in how hard he works every time he is on the court. He is a much better shooter than MKG, which should allow them both to play together.

10. Miami Heat (1.1%): Kelly Oubre, SF Kansas (6-7, 200) Age: 19
When healthy, the Heat will have a starting 5 to rival any team in the league. Their bench? Not so much. The Heat under Pat Riley haven't shown much interest in young players, but they also haven't picked this high in quite a while. Kelly Oubre was very inconsistent at Kansas, so he will benefit from being drafted by a team that isn't going to rely on him heavily, instead he can back up Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng and figure out the consistency surrounded by talented players and an excellent coach.

11. Indiana Pacers (0.8%): Myles Turner, F/C Texas (6-11, 240) Age: 19
In 2012, the Pacers drafted a young, incredibly talented player in the lottery who needed to develop some consistency and polish. Five years later, Paul George is one of the ten best players in the NBA, so why not take a similar route in this draft? Myles Turner has tremendous size, a 7-4 wingspan, and great touch on his mid-range jump shot. In a year or two, his range could be to the 3-point line and Indiana would have a center who can both block shots and space the floor. I ascribe to the idea that a team that is rarely in the lottery should take shots on high upside players because you can find higher-floor players later in the draft.

12. Utah Jazz (0.7%): Jerian Grant, PG Notre Dame (6-5, 202) Age: 22
The Jazz have a roster loaded with young talent, including players like Dante Exum who will likely be taking big steps forward every year for the next number of years. Point guard is a position that is in some flux and could use a steady hand. It still isn't certain what Exum's best position is and Trey Burke is best suited as a bench option. Jerian Grant is ready to step in and solidify Utah's point guard position with scoring, passing, and defense, all things Grant can do. He can also play off guard alongside Burke or Exum. Those three, plus Rodney Hood and Alec Burks, will give Utah a deep, versatile backcourt.

13. Phoenix Suns (0.6%): Frank Kaminsky, F/C Wisconsin (7-0, 234) Age: 22
With Brandon Wright as a free agent, the only center on the Suns roster is Alex Len, who has shown a ton of promise but has been injured a lot. Frank Kaminsky isn't a traditional center and may be better suited as at the 4, but he should be able to find time at both positions. The Suns offense would really benefit from Kaminsky's shooting ability, something they lost when Channing Frye left, and he can really compliment Len and Markieff Morris playing alongside either. Kaminsky is ready to come in right away and contribute, which will appeal to the Suns who wil want to wash away the mess that was last season quickly.

14. Oklahoma City Thunder (0.5%): Sam Dekker, F Wisconsin (6-9, 220) Age: 20
Kaminsky, Oubre, or Grant would be a great fit in OKC but with all of them off the board they may have to take a chance on a less certain prospect. Dekker is best suited as a stretch-4 who can take bigger players off the dribble to the rim, where he shot a very impressive 75% last season. The Thunder have a glut of bigs, but none quite like Dekker who would have the added bonus of allowing cross-matches with Durant at the 4. He is also a smart, high character, hard working player who would fit nicely into OKC's roster.

15. Atlanta Hawks (from Brooklyn): Kevon Looney, PF UCLA (6-9, 220) Age: 19
Paul Millsap and Elton Brand are free agents, and while the latter is likely to retire, the former could make a lot of money on the open market, leaving his future in Atlanta in doubt. Kevon Looney is developing a 3-point shot, something Atlanta covets, and is an outstanding offensive rebounder. I am not as bullish as some on his game, but Atlanta drafted a similar player last season, Adreian Payne and subsequently traded him. The biggest difference? Looney is a whooping five years younger than Payne.

16. Boston Celtics: Bobby Portis, PF Arkansas (6-11, 242) Age: 20
Brandon Bass is a free agent and I don't know if Boston will be looking to re-sign a 29 year-old undersized power forward. But even if they do, depth will be needed behind him as Jonas Jerebko is also a free agent. Bobby Portis is a well-rounded power forward with great size and a 7-1+ wingspan. He can score from anywhere inside the arc and has even started making college 3s. Defensively he isn't a dominant shot blocker, but he is smart, positions himself well, and plays hard. Portis is unlikely to be a star but is even more unlikely to be a bust. As a starter I could see him averaging 12 and 8 with good defense and rebounding.

17. Milwaukee Bucks: Devin Booker, SG Kentucky (6-6, 206) Age: 18
The Bucks were seventh in 3P% last season, but just twenty-sixth in attempts, so even if Khris Middleton is re-signed they'll be looking to upgrade their perimeter shooting in the offseason. The questions about Devin Booker surround what else he can do besides shoot, not his shooting. Put him on the floor and he will make 3s and space the floor. Whether he becomes more than just a 3-point specialist will depend on his ability to defend and put the ball on the floor, but the shooting will definitely play.

18. Houston Rockets (from New Orleans): Tyler Harvey, SG Eastern Washington (6-4, 185) Age: 21
This would be a surprise, and I don't value Harvey this highly, but the Rockets' needs at point guard are unique and Harvey would be a great fit. With James Harden to play as the de facto point guard, Houston really just needs someone who can make shots and play a little defense. Harvey should be able to be at least average vs. other point guards, but man can he shoot. Any situation, off the dribble, spotting up, pull ups, does not matter. Harvey will get comped to a poor-man's Steph Curry, so I could see him rising a lot before the draft, even if there are some flaws, many of which would masked by Houston's personnel.

19. Washington Wizards: Cameron Payne, PG Murray State (6-2, 180) Age: 20
John Wall is clearly the Wizards' best player and one of the best point guards in the league, so he will be on the court for the majority of the minutes at point guard, but when he is on the bench, you want a better option than Ramon Sessions. Cameron Payne can legitimately play point guard, is a good shooter, and can score enough that he could play alongside Wall at times, who has the size to guard 2s. Payne likely won't be a star, but as a role player he can provide a ton of value.

20. Toronto Raptors: Christian Wood, PF UNLV (6-10, 220) Age: 19
Amir Johnson has struggled this season and has likely played his last game in Toronto, ditto for Tyler Hansbrough, which would leave Patrick Patterson as the lone power forward on the roster. Christian Wood is talented enough to go 8 pick higher and would be great value here. Wood is athletic with a 7-2 wingspan, and a good mid-range shooter who can be dominant on the glass while also blocking shots a high rate (2.6 a game as a Sophomore). Wood has the upside to be an above-average starter with a high likelihood to be at least a bench option.

21. Dallas Mavericks: Tyus Jones, PG Duke (6-1, 190) Age: 18
The Mavericks could be losing up to 11 players in free agency, so they could really go any direction here. I think though, that finding the right point guard will be crucial because of how Dallas likes to run their free-wheeling offense. Tyus Jones would be a great fit because he can shoot from 3, knows how to use screens, and will almost always make the correct decision. Dallas may not be willing to hand over the keys of their roster to an 18 year-old rookie, but even if he is just a back-up, Jones will be a contributor offensively for a long time.

22. Chicago Bulls: R.J. Hunter, SG Georgia State (6-6, 190) Age: 21
While Jimmy Butler is very to re-sign in Chicago, Mike Dunleavey is not, so adding another perimeter scorer to go with Butler and Doug McDermott should be a priority in free agency or the draft. R.J. Hunter is a better shooter than his numbers suggest last season and should flourish as a role player because he won't command nearly the defensive attention he did in college. Hunter is also decent creating off the dribble and can run pick-and-roll, a nice plus to go with his shooting ability.

23. Portland Trailblazers: Montrezl Harrell, PF Louisville (6-8, 240) Age: 21
LaMarcus Aldridge is a free agent this summer, but even if he re-signs Portland's only other power forward is Joel Freeland. Montrezl Harrell is ideally suited to be a backup big man because he plays with incredibly, often reckless, energy. Put him in the game for 15-20 minutes a night and let him out-work opponents on the glass an in transition. The Blazers' bench has long been a problem and Harrell would be a step in the right direction.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers: Delon Wright, PG Utah (6-5, 190) Age: 22
The Cavs are in "win while we have LeBron" mode so I doubt they'll be interested in any projects. Deron Wright is basically what he will be right now and good enough to be a rotation player on a playoff team. Many times last season he was the best player on to floor without scoring very much. He is an excellent defender who can guard multiple positions and play point guard on offense. He'll be 23 next season, but as a backup point guard it would be hard to find a more impactful, versatile player.

25. Memphis Grizzlies: Robert Upshaw, C Washington (7-0, 250) Age: 21
With both Marc Gasol and Kosta Koufos likely to be highly sought-after free agents this summer, the center position in Memphis is in a state of flux and therefore some depth/insurance through the draft would be welcome. Robert Upshaw is a monster defensive player who blocked an insane 7.2 blocks per 40 last season before being kicked off the team. He doesn't seem to be a bad kid, just needs to grow up a bit, something Memphis is in a great position to do because of the leadership and reformed knuckleheads on their team. Even if Gasol re-signs, Koufos is likely gone and Upshaw can replace his defense at least as the Grizzlies back-up center.

26. San Antonio Spurs: Anthony Brown, G/F Stanford (6-6, 215) Age: 22
It will be interesting to see if Danny Green, a free agent this summer, gets any huge offers. My guess: he does and the Spurs don't overpay to keep him. If he does leave, the Spurs can possibly replace his production through the draft with a different color. Anthony Brown is an excellent perimeter defender, though not as disruptive as Green and should be a 40% 3-point shooter. He is also an unselfish player and Willing passer who should flourish in San Antonio's offense. Brown's upside is limited because of his age, but he has the skillset to stick as a role player in the NBA for a long time.

27. Los Angeles Lakers (from Houston): George de Paula Lucas, PG Pinheiros (6-6, 202) Age: 18
The Lakers could really use a potential rotation player with this pick, but they will not want to be taking on any more guaranteed contracts besides the #4 overall pick because of their dreams of a quick rebuild through free agency. George Lucas is the best draft-and-stash prospect available and he has a decent chance of making it to the NBA in a couple of years. Lucas is a big point guard who is still learning th position but has tremendous upside, particularly defensively where he can put his 7-foot wingspan to good use.

28. Boston Celtics (from L.A. Clippers): Dakari Johnson, C Kentucky (7-0, 255) Age: 19
The Celtics frontcourt lacks both physicality and any kind of consistent post scorer. Kelly Olynyk is better on the perimeter, Jared Sullinger is undersized and always hurt, Tyler Zeller isn't a post up play, while Brandon Bass is a free agent. Like Bobby Portis, Dakari Johnson isn't the athletic shotblocker they desperately need, but he is big enough to clog the paint while also rebounding and scoring around the basket. He is a throwback, low post center and his range is "paint" but he'll compliment Zeller nicely and give Boston a true center to use, probably off the bench.

29. Brooklyn Nets (from Atlanta): Cliff Alexander, PF Kansas (6-8, 240) Age: 19
The Nets are still paying for the Joe Johnson trade, losing out on the #15 pick and ending up near the bottom of the first. Thad Young is likely to elect free agency and sign elsewhere, while Mirza Teletovic is a restricted free agent, leaving only second round pick Cory Jefferson as a true power forward on the roster. Cliff Alexander is physically and athletically ready for the NBA, but is limited offensively. He will do the dirty work alongside Brook Lopez that Lopez struggles with, like rebounding and defending. Alexander is probably just a role player, but that is a good find at this point in the draft.

30. Golden State Warriors: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF Arizona (6-7, 220) Age: 20
While most people see Golden State as an explosive offensive team first, they actually had the best defense in the league. One of the big reasons they were so successful is that their perimeter defenders were so versatile: Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, Andre Igoudala, and Klay Thompson can all guard multiple positions at average or better rates. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is a special wing defender to add depth and insurance of both injury and free agency. Hollis-Jefferson isn't much of a shooter, but that won't matter much with all of the Warriors offensive options. Dakari Johnson or Robert Upshaw to backup Andrew Bogut is another possibility if they make it to this point.

Agree or disagree? Let me know!

Follow me on Twitter @double_tech

2015 NBA Draft: Top 50 (4/28)


1. Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C Kentucky (6-11, 250) Age: 19
Towns has always been well regarded as an offensive prospect, so much so that he was a considered a top 10 pick just on the strength of it. However, it was his defense this season that launched him into top overall pick selection: Towns used his size and 7-3+ wingspan to protect the rim, while also showing the agility and awareness to guard pick-and-roll. The craziest thing about Towns is that he hasn't even shown all of his offensive game yet, he is a legitimately good jump-shooter who can make 3s to go along with the post game he has already demonstrated. No big man in this draft has the upside of Towns to be able to legitimately dominate the game on both ends of the floor.

2. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG Guandong (6-5, 200) Age: 19
This is a Golden Age of point guards in the NBA and there isn't much sign of that letting up any time soon. The next in line is Emmanuel Mudiay, who has tremendous size, speed, and athleticism reminiscent of John Wall. Mudiay isn't the natural point guard Wall is, but he is already a better shooter at this point and can be just as devastating in transition and going to the rim. On defense, his size and physical ability gives him a chance to be special on that end as well. Mudiay took a unique path to the draft, signing to play in China instead of going to SMU, one that may have cost him a shot at being the top pick in the draft, though he is still firmly entrenched as a top-4 pick and a future star in the NBA.

3. D'Angelo Russell, SG Ohio State (6-5, 180) Age: 19
There are some basketball players who see the game at a different level, anticipating the action before it happens and making plays that wouldn't be possible a second earlier or later. D'Angelo Russell is such a player; he truly sees the floor like a point guard while being both willing and able to set up teammates. If that isn't enough to make Russell special, he is also a tremendous shooter with easy NBA range and a natural scorer's feel. He could definitely player point guard if drafted by a team that needs one, but I love the idea of playing him as a secondary ball-handler that can alternatively break-down defenses or spot up. While the James Harden comps will always be out there, Russell will need to get better at drawing fouls for that to be the case; those are the areas he can most improve.

4. Jahlil Okafor, C Duke (6-11, 270) Age: 19
Okafor has become a much more polarizing prospect than many would have thought possible after taking the college game by storm, averaging close to 20-and-10 right out of the gate. Despite his size and age, Okafor has huge hands that catch everything, unbelievably fluid footwork in the post, and great touch around the rim. So why is he polarizing? Most will focus on his defense, (which is bad), but what concerns me most is Okafor's lack of range, physicality, and ability to fit into an offense. He is not currently a threat outside of the post, has struggled when going against NBA size, and will require a team with great spacing that is willing to throw the ball into the post often. These are real concerns that tend to be ignored but could have a real impact. Okafor is still incredible in the post, he will go high and put up numbers, but it isn't an open-and-shut case and the flaws are real.

5. Justise Winslow, SF Duke (6-6, 225) Age: 19
One of the most valuable and underrated attributes a basketball player in today's NBA can have is versatility. So much of the game now is creating and exploiting matchups on both ends of the court, so when you have a player who can negate that in your opponents and create it for your team, it is very valuable. Justise Winslow has that ability because he can defend both forwards and guards as well as make outside shots, handle the ball, and set up teammates from the small forward position. He was weirdly bad on 2-point jumpers (27%) despite making 42% of his 3s. I don't know if he is ever a superstar or even an All-Star but Winslow will provide as much if not more value as many All-Stars.

6. Willie Cauley-Stein, C Kentucky (7-0, 240) Age: 21
For two seasons, Willie Cauley-Stein was tantalizing yet frustrating; showing so much potential but lacking in both consistency and the basic fundamentals to make use of all his abilities. All that changed his Junior year, however, as Cauley-Stein was able to unlock all of his talent and put forth the best defensive performance of any player in college basketball last season. Cauley-Stein is in a small group of the best athletes at his size; he compares to the likes of Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, and Andre Drummond as pure physical specimens from a size, speed, movement, and vertical standpoint. Now that he has started to master some of the fundamental aspects of the game, Cauley-Stein has DPOY potential because he can protect the rim, switch onto guards, and defend the pick-and-roll. Offensively, he is limited to mostly shots around the basket and lobs, but you can live with that with his level of defensive impact.

7. Mario Hezonja, SF Barcelona (6-8, 200) Age: 20
Hezonja is the a relative unknown compared to many on this list because, though he plays in what many consider to be the second best league in the world, Spain's ACB, he has played few minutes for veteran-laden (and recent league champion) FC Barcelona. When he is on the floor, the Croatian's ability is obvious; he is a very complete offensive player, able to handle the ball, shoot from distance, and finish at the rim. Hezonja hasn't always been a willing passer, but when he does he can be a legitimate distributor. Unlike the unfair stereotype of European players, Hezonja is athletic and quick with good length. Hezonja isn't going out-classed physically in the NBA and has the skill level to take punish opponents. Because of his limited exposure, Hezonja is a little riskier than the American prospects with a longer track record, but more talented than almost all of them.  

8. Kristaps Porzingis, PF Sevilla (7-0, 220) Age: 19
Like Hezonja, Porzingis plays in the ACB and is much more athletic than the common European stereotype, though he plays more minutes for Sevilla and has averaged double digits this season, both in league play and in the Eurocup. Porzingis is still developing physically, but his game is much more mature than the average 19-year old 7-footer. He can shoot from distance and, along with his mobility and bounce, makes him great playing pick-and-roll because he can pop for the open jumper or dive to the basket and finish above the rim. Defensively, Porzingis is an above-average shot blocker but will need to get stronger to become a real anchor in the paint. He could play a role off the bench in the NBA as early as next year, but team's could also elect to keep him overseas for another season or two.

9. Stanley Johnson, SF Arizona (6-7, 245) Age: 18
What first jumps off the page with Stanley Johnson is his size, despite not turning 19 until the end of May, Johnson is has a better body than most wing players in the NBA. He's no slow mover either, Johnson is athletic and plays very hard on both ends of the court; that plus his size and near 7-0 wingspan gives Johnson excellent defensive potential. Offensively, Johnson is very good in transition and made .371% of his 3s, and 44% of his 2 point jumpers, which will probably be where most of his offense comes from early on until his already decent ball-handling improves. Bizarrely, Johnson struggled somewhat finishing shots at the rim (53%), but based on his physical profile it is hard to see that continuing. Johnson isn't as good of a defender as Kawhi Leonard (a legit DPOY candidate) but he is a better shooter coming out and they both effect the game in similar ways that aren't always manifested in the box score.

10. Frank Kaminsky, PF Wisconsin (7-0, 234) Age: 22
The notion among fans is that if a player is big, white, and a Senior, they will stink in the NBA. Frank Kaminsky also isn't helped by his goofy personality and playing on a mostly white team like Wisconsin. However, none of those things actually have anything to do with a basketball player's on court success, what does matter is skill, size, and physical traits. Kaminsky checks the box on all of those things; he is a good athlete with excellent size for a power forward and a polished offensive skillset. Kaminsky can score in the post and at the rim (70%), is comfortable handling the ball, and is a legitimate 3-point shooter (40% the last two seasons), which will be the bread-and-butter of his game in the NBA. While he will never be considered a defensive force, Kaminsky rebounds well and can block shots.

11. Myles Turner, F/C Texas (6-11, 240) Age: 19
While Kaminsky is mostly a finished product at this stage, Myles Turner is just starting out on his development curve. He has the physical tools to work with as well as a bankable offensive and defensive skill with upside for more. Turner has the size to play center and with a 7-4+ wingspan there is no reason he can't play their full time in the NBA as his frame develops. Offensively, Turner's best weapon is his jumpshot from mid-range where he made 42% last season and should stretch out to the 3-point line with time. Unfortunately, he can fall in love with the shot and avoid posting up, where he could excel due to his touch. He is a great free throw shooter, which is always a bonus for a big man. On defense, Turner lacks vertical explosiveness, but his length and positioning help him to be a plus rim protector. The upside of Turner is a shot-blocker who makes 3s, something very valueable (and rare) in the NBA.

12. Kelly Oubre, SF Kansas (6-7, 200) Age: 19
One of the hardest things to predicts is whether players who lack consistency will ever gain it and what exactly can be done by teams and coaches to help them. This is a inherent risk with all prospects, but even more so with one like Oubre, whose season was started out with DNP-CDs, featured some soaring highs and epic lows. When playing well and engaged. Oubre can really fill it up, attacking the basket and making outside shots, but all too often that version doesn't show up. He is excellent finishing at the rim (60%).  He has potential to be a very good, physical defender and that rebounds the ball well, however without the offense he loses most of his value. If Oubre pulls an Andre Drummond and all of a sudden turns it on nightly, he could be one of the best players from this draft, but if he doesn't he could be a big bust. That's the risk here.

13. Jerian Grant, PG Notre Dame (6-5, 202) Age: 22
For someone who has never averaged less than 35 minutes a game over the course of three and a half seasons at Notre Dame, there is a lot of available data on Jerian Grant but that is what makes his steady, season-to-season improvement all the more impressive. Grant's game has continued to grow, to the point now that he is a legitimate point guard who can also play off the ball (35% career from 3). He sees the floor well and is a willing passer who has grown in his decision making and ability to run an offense. As a finisher Grant has the body control and touch to be above-average in this area. Defensively, due to his size and quickness, Grant can be excellent defensive player. At 22 he may not have much more developing to do, but what he is already is a polished player that can play either guard spot and provide plenty of value at either position.

14. Sam Dekker, F Wisconsin (6-9, 220) Age: 20
No one benefited from March Madness more than Dekker, who looked like a different player than at times during the year. In 6 games, he averaged 19.1 points per game, shooting 57% from the field and 42% from 3 while frequently being the best player on the floor. The difference was Dekker's aggressiveness, he saw a match-up advantage and tried to exploit it. In the NBA, whatever team that drafts Dekker will want to put him in such match-ups, which is why I ultimately think his best spot at the next level is power forward, he has the size to play their and his ability to put the ball on the floor, and shot from distance would be devastating against less mobile bigs that he can take off the dribble to the rim, where he makes a blistering 75% of his attempts. I would hesitate to play Dekker full time on the perimeter because his jumper can come and go, his game is best when he plays off his ability to drive first.

15. Christian Wood, PF UNLV (6-11, 220) Age: 19
A top 100 recruit, Christian Wood played sparingly his first season at UNLV, but as a Sophomore his minutes jumped and his production took off. Wood has several bankable skills you'd want from a power forward: rebounding and blocking shots at high rates defensively, while finishing in the rim at a high rate (65%). He is also developing as a shooter. Wood shot 28% on 88 3-point attempts last season, but he was better on 2-point jumpers, hitting a very respectable 45% of them, which will definitely play in the NBA. It will significantly aid his efficiency if he stops taking 3s until he develops that range. He also makes an excellent 75% of his free throws. Wood has also shown the ability to attack off the dribble, which goes hand-in-hand with making jump shots. Wood's biggest issue right now is strength, he will need to get stronger in order to be a starter in the NBA, which at 19 years old is certainly possible. Even if he only marginally improves his body, Wood could be John Henson, who is a valuable NBA player.

16. Kevon Looney, PF UCLA (6-9, 220) Age: 19
Kevon Looney has been well regarded all season and is loaded with potential, so it is easy to see why. Looney is, first and foremost, tremendous on the offensive glass, (3.4 a game) using his activity, instincts and 7-3+ wingspan. He is good on the defensive boards as well, though not at the same level. Looney moves well and could be excellent defending perimeter 4s as well as the pick-and-roll, though he will need to get stronger to hold up defending in the paint and he isn't much of a shot blocker at this point. Offensively, there are more concerns. He is a good ball handler for a power forward, but Looney's 42% 3-point shooting is a bit deceiving as it was only on 53 attempts, whereas his 32% on 101 2-point jumpers and 63% on free throws paint a much more realistic picture of his shooting ability. Looney doesn't have bad mechanics so he may become a good shooter down the line, but he isn't yet. That potential is what will get him drafted and as always it's hard to bet against a 19 year old improving, but the top 10 talk is a little overboard in my eyes.

17. Devin Booker, SG Kentucky (6-6, 206) Age: 18
Shooting is, as always, at a premium in the NBA; it is one of the few skills that every single team could use more of. There are, of course, great shooters that can't cut it in the NBA because they lack enough secondary skills to be an overall positive. That is the question with Devin Booker, his shooting ability is unquestioned but does his game have anything else? Booker is efficient inside the arc (53%) so that is a plus. He played a lot of minutes on one of the best defensive teams in the country, but his physical profile (short arms, lack of great athletic ability) suggests he may struggle in that area. Booker is also just an average ball-handler and passer, so it would be hard to project him as a playmaker. However, his shooting is so good that it worth a first-round pick on the chance that a high-IQ 18-year old improves enough in other areas to stick in a rotation.

18. Bobby Portis, PF Arkansas (6-11, 242) Age: 20
For an All-American and the SEC player of the year, Bobby Portis somehow flew under both the college and pro radar for most of the year, mostly likely because he isn't a flashy player and doesn't have one ability that knocks your socks off. That jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none profile is Portis' greatest strength and ultimately what keeps him from being a lock as a lottery pick. Portis really has few holes in his game; he rebounds, finishes at the rim as a high rate (75%), can score in the post, and has shown to be a decent jump shooter (38% on 2s) who has started making the odd 3-pointer. In addition to his offensive ability and despite modest block and steal totals, Portis is an excellent positional defender. However, without a big step forward in any area, none of these abilities translate to starter. However, as an impact backup and occasional starter, Portis should excel.

19. Trey Lyles, PF Kentucky (6-10, 235) Age: 19
Often the forgotten man during Kentucky's epic run, Trey Lyles was a big reason why the Wildcats offense took a step to the next level during the second half of the season. Lyles is an interesting prospect because he is overrated as a jump shooters (below average 39% on 2s, putrid 14% on 3s) but is much better a post scorer than given credit for. Lyles often played alongside Cauley-Stein and Towns so he was forced onto the perimeter and out of the post more often than would be optimum for his talents, on an NBA team playing power forward full-time, Lyles should flourish and down the line improve his jumper as well, which isn't broken by any means. One of the biggest worries about Lyles is that he isn't a terrific athlete who may struggle to defend on the perimeter and and protect the rim at the next level.

20. Cameron Payne, PG Murray State (6-2, 180) Age: 20
Payne has followed a similar path as his predecessor Isaiah Canaan, riding a wave of high scoring performances and a long Racers winning streak into the draft picture. Now that he is in the picture, closer examination reveals just how good of a prospect Payne is. While Canaan was a score first and second player, Payne is much more of a true point guard. He can definitely score, and do so efficiently, but his passing and play-making ability is what separates Payne from countless undersized combo guards. He sees the floor and is more than willing to make the correct pass, though adjusting to the speed of NBA competition will take time as he learns to run an offense as not the first option. As a scorer, his game is mostly perimeter based, and while he does a good job converting once he gets to the rim (63%) only 18% of his offense is comes there. Outside of the rim, he makes and excellent 46% of his two point jumpers and 38% from 3. He isn't overwhelming big or athletic, so continuing to make shots will be crucial to his success in the NBA. Coming from small school Murray State, how Payne adjusts to the NBA game will be his biggest hurdle, but if you squint really hard you can see shades of another small school point guard: Damian Lillard.  

21. Delon Wright, PG Utah (6-5, 190) Age: 22
There are some players who can be the best player on the floor without scoring a point, Delon Wright was that type of player at times this year, and while it would ridicules to expect that from him in the NBA, it goes to show how much impact he could have as a third guard. Wright can play both guard spots, shoots well from every area of the floor, sees the floor and plays unselfishly, while also drawing a ton of fouls and converting free throws at a high rate. As well rounded as his offense is, Wright may be better defensively, versatile enough to guard both guards and wings, while averaging 2.1 steals and over a block a game. At 22 going on 23, there is little upside left in Wright's game, but what his is now, as both a point guard and defensive player, is good enough to make him a rotation player in the NBA for years to come. 

22. Montrezl Harrell, PF Louisville (6-8, 240) Age: 21
Harrell surprised many by returning for his Junior season when he may have been a lottery pick; this year the outlook isn't quite as rosy but it would be a surprise if he wasn't drafted in the first round. Harrell's best attributes are his athletic ability and non-stop style of play. Because of this he gets most of his points in transition, off of feeds, and from offensive rebounds; when Harrell gets the ball near the basket he is trying to dunk it and much more often than not he succeeds, shooting an absurd 81% on shots at the rim. Unfortunately, the further away from the basket he gets, the less efficient Harrell becomes; he has tried to incorporate a jumpshot into his game with mixed success. It's something he'll likely want to scrap in the NBA until it becomes more effective. Defensively, Harrell is strong, has a long, 7-3 wingspan and plays very hard, but may struggle against bigger opponents. Harrell is the kind of prospect who should be an NBA role player for a long time but without the upside to surpass that profile unless he takes a big step forward as a shooter.

23. Tyus Jones, PG Duke (6-1, 190) Age: 18
With Tyus Jones, it is a tail of two scouting viewpoints. Watch Jones on the court and it is hard not to love what you see. For a player so young, Jones has a mature and nuanced understanding of playing point guard, understanding positioning and spacing, when to shoot and when to pass, a natural distributor with excellent vision who limits turnovers. He can beat defenders in pick-and-roll whether they go over or under the screen. The other side of the scouting coin is that Jones is clearly limited by his physical profile. He is undersized and, while quick with the ball, lacks the kind horizontal or vertical explosion necessary to be much of a threat at the rim in NBA. He struggled defensively in college, so there is little hope he will be even average on that end going against the NBA's glut of uber-talented point guards. These aspects will likely limit Jones to becoming a backup, but one that plays for many, many years and provides a ton of value in that role.

24. R.J. Hunter, SG Georgia State (6-6, 190) Age: 21
Hunter made national waves when he hit an absurd game winner vs. Baylor in the first round of the NCAA tournament, but NBA folks had been on him since he followed up two excellent seasons with a great showing at the Nike Skills Academy. His Junior year was a step back, particularly with his plummeting shooting percentages. Ironically for a player most people would stereotype as a un-athletic shooter, Hunter was amazing at the rim this season (73%) and pretty bad everywhere else. However, after two full seasons of excellent shooting and 88% from the line, there is little reason to suspect his shooting can't rebound, particularly because he will be a role player in the NBA who won't face the same kind of defensive attention that he did as the clear best player at Georgia State. Most interesting about Hunter's game though is his ability to handle the ball and run pick-and-roll; even if teams don't use him in that capacity very often, he should be effective attacking off of closeouts.

25. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF Arizona (6-7, 220) Age: 20
While offense only perimeter prospects are rarely knocked down much in the draft, those that are primarily defensive players are usually viewed as an undesirable commodity. It takes a special defensive talent for a perimeter player with limited offensive game to be considered a potential first rounder. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is that good. He can legitimately guard four positions (big 4s might give him some trouble) and there is really no questioning his ability to be a top-level perimeter defender. He also rebounds well for his position and is an excellent help defender. Offensive is more of an issue for Hollis-Jefferson, he is excellent finishing at the rim and works really hard off the ball cutting to the basket, but he simply has no range at this point and doesn't even try to shoot that often. Some teams may be scared that having him on the floor will hurt their offenses, but his upside is a bigger Tony Allen without all the craziness.

26. George de Paula Lucas, PG Pinheiros (6-6, 202) Age: 18
If you were drawing up the physical dimensions of an ideal point guard, it would be hard to beat what George de Paula Lucas offers. Tall and strong with an excellent 7-foot wingspan, Lucas will have a physically advantage over most point guards he faces. Skill-wise, he is very much an 18 year-old learning to play point guard and will need time to polish his ball-handling, distribution, and ability to run a team. He is a good, not great athlete but can use his size to score at the rim, while his jumper looks good, he needs consistency. Lucas has terrific upside and should be a first round pick, however the couple of years it may take him to become NBA ready may scare some teams off.

27. Cliff Alexander, PF Kansas (6-8, 240) Age: 19
Cliff Alexander's one-and-done season didn't exactly go as planned; he only 17.6 minutes a game and was suspended for the last 8 games of the season with academic issues. His per 40 numbers are pretty good, 16.2 points, 12 rebounds, 3 blocks a game, but the fact that he couldn't get more minutes on a pretty average Kansas team is concerning. He has no range outside of the paint offensively and is really limited to lobs and put-backs until his post game develops more. Defense and rebounding is where his money will be made in the NBA. Alexander rebounds well on both ends and has the size, length, activity, and lift to continue that at the next level. He fights to challenge shots, is strong enough to bang inside, and moves well enough (if awkwardly) to guard on the perimeter. Alexander may suffer from comparisons to former Jayhawk Thomas Robinson, who has not found consistent NBA success. Though they are similar players, Alexander can still be useful as a backup if he focuses on his strengths while avoiding his weaknesses, which has been Robinson's downfall.

28. Robert Upshaw, C Washingon (7-0, 250) Age: 21
Upshaw was having an amazing season and well on his way to a becoming a potential lottery pick before the same off-the-court issues that forced him to transfer to Washington cropped up again and he kicked off a team for the second time in his career. The question with Upshaw isn't talent, he is a potential DPOY candidate with amazing shot blocking instincts plus the size and strength gobble up opponents in the paint. Upshaw blocked 4.5 shots in just under 25 minutes a game, an absurd 7.2 per 40, and altered countless others. As you'd expect he is awesome finishing at the rim (74%) and surprisingly decent shooting from mid-range (40%) but offense isn't his forte and never will be. He is a terrible FT shooter as well (36%). But again, with Upshaw it is all about if he can stay clean off the court. If he does, you could be looking at the next Rudy Gobert, if not he'll be playing in China.

29. Anthony Brown, G/F Stanford (6-6, 215) Age: 22
Role players hardly ever go high in the draft because teams are forever searching for a potential star, which pushes down surer-thing, lower upside prospects like Anthony Brown. Brown has the two definitive skills necessary to be an excellent 3-and-D. First of all, he is an excellent perimeter defender who can check both guards and wings, using both his quickness and smarts to lock down opponents. As a shooter, Brown's release is quick and he has a long track record as a 3-point shooter, including the last two years when he made 132 three-pointers on a blistering 45% shooting. Brown isn't ever going to be a star, but he could be Danny Green, which make him very valuable.

30. Justin Anderson, SF Virginia (6-6, 227) Age: 21
The other prominent potential 3-and-D wing in this draft, Justin Anderson, has a higher upside as a defender but his shooting is a bigger question mark. Anderson has great size, strength, explosive leaping ability, and a 6-11 wingspan, all of which adds up to tremendous potential defensively. The bigger question with Anderson is his shooting, in his first two years at Virginia, Anderson made just 30% of his 3s, but as a Junior that jumped to 45%. So the question is, which is the real Anderson? If he can shoot 35-40% from 3, Anderson could be a very valuable player but if he regresses back to the 30% range? He really doesn't have that much value because while he could be a really good defender, he's not Hollis-Jefferson's level.

31. Aleksandar Vezenkov, SF Aris (6-8, 200) Age: 19
There was a time when Aleksandar Vezenkov would be dubbed "the next Dirk Nowitzki" because he is tall, can shoot, and, most importantly, European. Luckily we seem to have finally moved past those types of stereotypes, unfair to both Dirk and to whom he is being compared. Vezenkov is an outstanding shooter, perhaps the best in the draft, with a picture-perfect stroke. The Cyprusian international is best in catch-and-shoot situations but has shown some ability off the dribble. Due to Vezenkov's size and quick release, he has little trouble getting off his shot. Handling the ball is not his forte, but Vezenkov is decent at it and sees the floor well. The big knocks on Vezenkov are his lack of athleticism that may cause some defensive issues as well as the league he plays in, the Greek League, not being top competition. Still, at 6-8 with at least one more than NBA quality skill, Vezenkov is intruiging. He's a better prospect than Davis Bertans, who went 42nd overall in the 2011 draft.

32. Jarell Martin, PF LSU (6-10, 236) Age: 20
Like his fellow SECian Bobby Portis, Jarell Martin is a well-rounded big man with the physical attributes to stick at the position but perhaps lacking the upside of a potential starter, let alone a star. Martin does all the things you want from a power forward at an average or above rate, but nothing in his game stands out as a skill that can carry him. His defense and rebounding isn't elite, neither is his post game or finishing. The all-around ability is enough to be a net positive most of the time, but Martin isn't a huge difference maker, just solid. The one area he could grow in is his shooting, which had had a rep for in high school, but after two years at LSU it hasn't show itself yet.

33. Dakari Johnson, C Kentucky (7-0, 255) Age: 19
Backup center is not a sexy position, no fanbase is pumped when their team drafts one, but invariably injuries come, big guys need rest, and Bismack Biyombo is playing 30 minutes a game. Dakari Johnson's choice to go to Kentucky led to two final fours, but may also have cost him a lot of individual awards and perhaps a lottery pick. Despite being a top recruit, Johnson played only 16.3 minutes a game because of how loaded the Wildcats were in their front court. His per 40 stats are good (15.6 points, 11.3 rebounds, 2.3 blocks) however, and how Johnson played on the court in addition to his high school tape are enough to show that Johnson has what it takes to stick as a backup in the NBA. He has great size and is a true low-post center who's range is paint, he rebounds on both ends well, and should be able to clog the lane defensively. The upside isn't huge, he isn't a shooter and lacks the lateral quickness to be a versatile defender, however Johnson should stick in the league for years.

34. Zhou Qi, C Xinjiang (7-2, 209) Age: 19
Zhou Qi is blessed with tremendous size, long arms, (7-6+ wingspan), and mobility, good enough to make him a potential plus defender at both the rim and vs. the pick-and-roll. Offensively, he has very good touch around the rim and a developing jump shot, however his post game is still raw; his offense mostly finishing passes at this point. In many ways, Qi's weaknesses are a microcosm of the struggles of many young 7+ foot tall players: he needs to get a lot stronger before he'll be ready to play in the NBA and he isn't always full engaged in games, which is for big guys learning to play hard all the time in giant bodies. Qi won't be ready for the NBA until he gets stronger, but as a draft-and-stash prospect, he has a ton of appeal because of his upside.

35. Tyler Harvey, SG Eastern Washington (6-4, 185) Age: 21
Harvey picked the right year (the year of Steph Curry) to be entering the draft. Harvey's game is clearly modeled after Curry, and he even physically looks like Curry, though clearly based on this ranking he isn't close to that league. Harvey is a special shooter, making 43% of his 3s and 47% of his two point jumpers, off the dribble, catch-and-shoot , stepping back, pulling up, it doesn't really matter. He isn't terrible attacking the basket either, but shooting is his forte. It's easy to see Harvey and think that you could make him a point guard, ala Curry but he doesn't have that kind of vision or demeanor, he'll make the obvious pass but is on the court to score first and foremost. As a two guard, he is undersized and may struggle defensively, but as a bench scorer or playing alongside an ball-handling 2 guard, Harvey should thrive. The comps to Curry will keep coming, but Curry is the best shooter the NBA has ever seen and also a true point guard; instead I think that Harvey is what many thought Jimmer Fredette would be. An interesting note: against 5 major conference teams Harvey faced last season, he averaged 25 points a game, on 46% from the field and 42% from 3.

36. Terry Rozier, PG Louisville (6-1, 190) Age: 21
Rozier is a polarizing prospect because his skills are better suited for a 6-5 shooting guard instead a 6-1 point guard. There is no denying Rozier's ability to put up points, but his method of going about it are more troubling: he takes 46% of his shots at the rim, making 55% of them, which isn't instead an awesome number, especially considering that it gets harder to finish in the NBA. This wouldn't be as big as an issue if Rozier didn't shoot 31% on 3s as well as being a below average distributor for a point guard. His 40% on 2-point jumpers and 79% on free throws is promising for his shooting, but Rozier hasn't demonstrated much feel as a passer through two seasons. One area that Rozier does excel is defensively; his size will limit him to guarding point guards, but he is both effective and disruptive against them. Basically, Rozier is a shooting guard in a point guard's body, which can work as a beach scoring option of a Lou Williams type, but Summer League superstar is more likely based in profile.

37. Timothe Luwawu, SG Antibes (6-7, 205) Age: 19
Like many draft-and-stash European prospects, Timothe Luwawu's appeal is mainly his potential, though he is already well on his way to developing that potential. It all starts with Luwawu's physical ability, he is an excellent athlete with long arms, and a strong frame with room for growth. Defensively, the Franchman has potential to be plus while offensively he can blow by most opponents at this point because of his great first step. Where he can grow most is handling the ball and shooting, both of which will greatly benefit his ability as a slasher. His stroke is good, he just needs consistency. Luwawu is physically ready for the NBA, but he could use another year or two in a better league overseas to polish his skills, which will likely be th plan for any team that drafts him.

38. J.P. Tokoto, G/F North Carolina (6-5, 200) Age: 21
One of my favorite prospects in the draft, J.P. Tokoto will probably never be a star (though he might win a dunk contest) but when he is on the floor he contributes to winning. Tokoto's value begins with his amazing athletic ability, a highlight waiting to happen, he is an awesome finisher at the rim and has the potential to be a special wing defender. He is unselfish and a terrific passer, basically functioning as a point guard at times for UNC. The biggest obstacle towards Tokoto sticking in the NBA is his shooting, he made 38% of his 3s last season but only on 32 attempts, if he can improve to a reasonable percentage, Tokoto should easily stick in the NBA, if not than I still think he has a chance because his defense and passing are that good.

39. Guillermo Hernangomez, C Sevilla (6-11, 255) Age: 20
Kristaps Porzingis isn't the only NBA prospects playing for Sevilla in Spain's ACB. In fact, Guillermo "Wily" Hernangomez plays essentially the same amount of minutes as Porzingis and is just as productive, or more in some cases, though of course Porzingis is a top 10 pick because of his size, upside, athleticism, and skill. Hernangomez has two of those things, size and skill, which is why he is more of a late-first-early second round prospect. He has the size of a legitimate center, with room for growth, and a 7-1+ wingspan that isn't extrordinary, but more than adequate. Skill wise, he has very good footwork, is comfortable with the ball, and soft hands. It'd be hard to call Hernangomez quick, but he isn't slow-footed attacking the basket by any means. He occasionally struggles finishing, but that should come with more time and strength. As a rebounder, he is better on the offensive end, with a real knack in that area. Because he isn't quick moving on defense, Hernangomez will always be more reliant on smarts and positioning, which is hard to project and therefore makes his defense somewhat of a question mark.

40. Chris McCullough, PF Syracuse (6-10, 220) Age: 20
Since his high school days, Chris McCullough has been a tough evaluation. His talent has always been abundantly obvious: great size, projectable frame, long 7-3 wingspan, explosive leaping ability, guard-like quickness, smooth finishing ability, and a jumper that might have 3-point range sooner rather than later. The issue is he's never been consistently dominant the way those talents suggest and he'll disappear for stretches at a time, even whole games or series of games. The other issue is McCullough was knocked out for the season with a torn ACL, there's a good chance he makes a full recovery, but if he is diminished it will remove a lot of his value, which comes from finish and defense, where he is very good. If McCullough can be a plus defender and develop 3-point range, he will be a steal outside of the top 15 or so picks, a valuable role player, which is perhaps the role he is best suited to instead of the star his skills suggest.

41. Michael Qualls, SG Arkansas (6-6, 210) Age: 21
A prototype wing player, Michael Qualls has everything physically you look for in the position. Prototypical size, a 7-foot wingspan, and excellent all around athletic ability, Qualls will not be held back by his athletic tools. Offensively, he is always in attack mode and has a great first step and is excellent off the dribble and getting to the rim, where he converts an outstanding 71% of his attempts. Qualls brings the same energy defensively, but is occasionally too aggressive and needs to work on sticking to the fundamentals. The biggest issue with Qualls is that the further away from the rim he gets, the less effective he gets. While his 33% three point shooting is acceptable, he only made 28% of his 2-point jumpers, a very poor percentage. Qualls will need to remain at least passable as a shooter in order to keep defenders from laying off of him.

42. Rashad Vaughn, SG UNLV (6-6, 210) Age: 18
Vaughn is hard to peg, he was a top prospect who averaged a robust 18.3 points a game with very good percentages from all areas of the floor yet he is receiving very little hype despite not turning 19 until August. Vaughn is first, foremost, and likely always a scorer who has shown the ability to score from all over the floor. He is strength-wise for the NBA, which will help considering he is not the kind of athlete that will create great separation either horizontally or vertically. The funny thing about Vaughn's great percentages is that his shot selection can be pretty poor at times, which is not a great sign because teams are realizing "bad shot makers" aren't very valuable, and making those bad shots gets harder against NBA defenses. Still just 18, Vaughn can improve his shot-selection and efficiency and make this ranking look foolish in a couple years.

43. Nikola Milutinov, C Partizan (6-11, 220) Age: 20
An ideal draft-and-stash candidate, Nikola Milutinov has nice bankable skills and really one major issue holding him back that can be improved on overseas while not costing his team any present money, but with the potential of a rotation player down the line. Milutinov is very mobile for his size, not an outstanding vertical athlete, but has long enough arms to bother shooters around the rim and in pick-and-roll. Offensively, he has nice footwork and hands, the best foundation for a post player and good touch around the rim. Milutinov's biggest area in need of improvement is strength and toughness, he tends to get pushed around and will need to become more physical as well as more muscularly developed. Any team that drafts Milutinov will likely keep him overseas, watching to see how his body matures and if he starts to push back in the post. If he does, you've got a potential backup center that can contribute on both ends of the court; if not he joins the countless other second rounders to never make the NBA.

44. Norman Powell, SG UCLA (6-4, 215) Age: 21
For his first three years at UCLA, Norman Powell was an average player with some intriguing skills. His Senior year, however, Powell's minutes jumped and so did his production. He is great at getting to the rim and finishes well there, but his jumpshot needs work, which will be crucial to his development as those drives to the rim become more difficult. When committed, Powell is able to be a good defensive player and his 6-11+ wingspan and strong frame make up for a lack of height and athletic ability. As a combo guard, Powell can make correct passes but is a scorer, first and foremost. Powell will get knocked because of worries that his ability to get the rim will be diminished facing better, bigger athletes every night, making his shooting struggles even more glaring.

45. Cedi Osman, G/F Anadolu Efes (6-8, 190) Age: 20
Every year or so, a prospect comes around with a unique skillset that will require a precise fit for success in the NBA. Cedi Osman is, at his size, a legitimate point guard with tight handles, excellent court vision, and passing ability. His height helps him see over the defense and find passing lanes that others might not see. The rub is, the rest of Osman's game lags behind. Frankly he is a not a efficient scorer in any way, a poor shooter and finisher. Defensively, Osman may struggle defensively as he lacks great athletic ability or long arms, the upside in this area is likely average. Put Osman on the right team after another year and Europe and he could be a valuable match-up piece off the bench.

46. Rakeem Christmas, F/C Syracuse (6-9, 250) Age: 23
A well-regarded prospect out of high school, Rakeem Christmas played in 142 games, but didn't develop as anything more than a defense/rebounding big man until his Senior year, where he took a huge step forward as a post player. Christmas scored very efficiently from 15-feet in, with the ability to turn over either shoulder. He also makes 72% of his free throws and finishes at a high rate around the rim. Christmas' best attribute it his defense, he projects to be above-average in that area because of his strength, 7-3+ wingspan, and all around excellent athletic ability. The big knocks on Christmas is age and the fact that he plays like a center on offense, but is the size of a power forward. He could be a valuable backup big man because of his defense, ability to score around the rim, and step in right away, but Christmas will be most successful paired with a center that can stretch the floor a little, as to not create spacing issues since he isn't an outside threat.

47. Andrew Harrison, G Kentucky (6-6, 210) Age: 20
Playing for Kentucky cut both ways for Andrew Harrison, it kept his name in the spotlight despite poor play, but it also inflated expectations to the point he couldn't hope to live up to them. Harrison is not an asthetically pleasing type of player, especially for point guard purists, but has some intruiging skills to go with the obvious flaws. I don't think he can be a point guard full time at the next level, he just doesn't have the feel for the position. However, I think he could be interesting as a 2-guard if his 3-point shooting continues to hover around a respectable percentage. Put Harrison off the ball, let him attack off of close outs, finding teammates, drawing fouls and I could see him sticking in the NBA; let him try to run an offense and I think you're asking for an inefficient offensive output, turnovers, and most importantly, a stagnate team offense.

48. Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C Nanterre (6-11, 249) Age: 20
Mouhammadou Jaiteh is another intriguing draft-and-stash prospect who has the physical attributes of an NBA center and a mid-range game. Jaiteh is big, strong and has an excellent 7-4 wingspan; he isn't a great athlete but if a team keeps him out of too many pick and rolls, he should be able to clog the lane and protect the rim. Offensively, he lacks a great feel for the post but has developed a nice jumper with soft touch. Still, guarding the rim and stretching the floor can be useful from a backup center, which would be his role in the NBA if he makes it.

49. Jordan Mickey, PF LSU (6-8, 235) Age: 20
Despite outproducing his teammate Jarell Martin for much of his career at LSU, Jordan Mickey has never been as highly regarded, mainly because questions about his size and offensive ability. The size thing could be an issue, but that will be mitigated somewhat by his 7-2 wingspan, though bigger players will certainly have an advantage. Martin's best attributes are his defense and rebounding, he averaged an outstanding 4.2 blocks and 11.4 rebounds per game while also having the quickness to defend perimeter based 4s. Offensively, he is a good not great finisher with decent numbers shooting from 2-point range (40%) but not the kind of stroke that is likely to translate into great shooting numbers. Mickey's path to the NBA will be as a defensive specialist vs. stretch 4s who won't kill you in other situations because of his shot-blocking and defense.

50. Moussa Diagne, C Fuenlabrada (6-10, 218) Age: 21
Moussa Diagne is an interesting prospect, mainly because he is older than the average young, raw big man so a team may look at him as a potential draft-and-stash to see if his game takes the necessary steps forward, but at this point there are questions as to how much he could possible develop. Physically, he has the look of an NBA center, big broad shoulders, long arms (7-4 wingspan, 9-3 reach), he moves well and is a good athlete for his size. However, the skills are what needs to develop, he knows what to do when he gets the ball around the rim, but that is the limit for now. Defensively there is upside and he could be a backup center if his instincts improve. The most likely outcome is Diange is taken near the end of the second but a team looking to develop him more.

Anyone too high? Too low? Let me know!

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