Preseason Award Predictions

Coach of the Year: Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat

It is a common opinion that Erik Spoelstra is an average (or worse) coach that the Big 3 made look good. However, in some ways it was the opposite, Spoelstra built an offense around their unique skills: a big who shoots, a guard who doesn't, and the worlds biggest point guard. He also organized a tremendous, swarming defense that was the backbone of 4 straight Finals teams. With LeBron gone and Wade hobbled, this will be the year that both Spoelstra and Chris Bosh get the credit they are due, possibly leading the Heat to 50 wins and a 3-seed. Obviously Gregg Popovich could easily win it again, as could newcomer David Blatt, or any number of coaches that exceed expectations. For example, if Frank Vogel gets the disasterous Pacers back the playoffs, he would have to get a lot of considerations.

Executive of the Year: LeBron James David Griffin, Cleveland Cavaliers

They can't give him the award, can they?

Most Improved Player: Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks

This award usually goes to players in their third or fourth season who have a big jump in minutes, however their aren't a ton of candidates that meet that criteria, so instead the favorites may be players fully integrating into a system or that add something to their game that takes it to the next level. Jeff Teague was great last year in Mike Budenholzer's offense, and should only improve with experience. Also, the return of Al Horford and the arrival of rookie Adeian Payne is sure to raise his assist totals and take the focal point of defenses off of him. Speaking of assists, another possibility to win the award is Timberwolves guard Ricky Rubio, who actually improved as a shooter last year, and surely can't be a dreadful of a finisher as he has in the past. (right?) The super-athletes he will play with this year (Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Thad Young) will lend to an uptempo style and a ton of assists (he should lead the league in this category, or be close) and even if he just shoots 40-42% and finishes better, it will be a huge improvement. Some advanced stats love Rubio (10.76 RPM) while others aren't as high (+2.6 Simple rating, 15.35 PER). Rubio is hurt by the fact that Minnesota likely isn't going to win a ton of games this year and won't get a ton of national attention as a result. While I hate to be a sucker for pre-season storylines, if Michael Kidd-Gilchirst really has developed a decent jumpshot, it could be the piece that brings all the other great things he does together into a premier package.

Sixth Man of the Year: Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls

The usual suspects like Jamal Crawford and Manu Ginobili will be in the running, but this may finally be the year that Taj Gibson, who unlike most Sixth Man winners also adds tremendous value defensively, will finally get some recognition. Pau Gasol may have replaced Carlos Boozer, but I would be surprised if Gibson wasn't still finishing games at power forward like he was last year. A sleeper would be Dion Waiters, if he is used off the bench, because he has talent because LeBron (and winning) tends to bring the most out of players, despite their flaws. If he is fully healthy Ryan Anderson is another under-the-radar option because he is so efficient and should get plenty of playing time. If Utah wasn't going to be terrible, Alec Burks would be another strong candidate.

Rookie of the Year: Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks

Rookie of the Year doesn't usually go to the best rookie, it goes to the one given the best oppurtunity to put up stats. Role is most important in this race. Jabari Parker will be the focal point of Milwaukee's offense right away and has the talent to excell in that position, scoring a lot of points with good percentages and grabbing a lot of rebounds. Nerlens Noel, Andrew Wiggins, Elfrid Payton, Marcus Smart will all get plenty of playing time, and could win the award if they adjust quickly to the NBA game. Dante Exum has a bright future but probably isn't ready to be a star right away while Julius Randle, Nikola Mirotic, and Doug McDermott have the ability to put up big numbers, but likely won't get the playing time. This is a tremendous crop of rookies and all will be worth watching closely this season, even though who just have limited roles right now. 

Defensive Player of the Year: Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder

This award almost always goes to a big man, though wing defenders like Andre Igoudala and Tony Allen are deserving of recognition, a rim protecting center is usually the favorite. Serge Ibaka transformed himself an average or worse defensive player who blocked a lot of shots to an elite defensive player who still blocks a lot of shots. Joakim Noah, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, Roy Hibbert, and Dwight Howard also have a chance, as do young players like Anthony Davis and Andre Drummond. Of course, if LeBron James is able to focus more on the defensive end this season, he certainly has the chaps to win the award, but I doubt it ever happens.

Most Valueable Player: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers

Kevin Durant deservedly won the award last season, but I am not sure he'll be able to top that performance, which may be what it takes to beat out LeBron for the award, who will still score 25-30 points a game with awesome percentages as well having his rebounds and assists up playing alongside Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love and in the Eastern Conference. It will also be interesting to see if he takes on a bigger role defensively now that some of the offensive pressure if off his back. LeBron is far from a lock and I could see Blake Griffin, Chris Bosh, Steph Curry, Derrick Rose, or even an epic season from Dirk Nowizki winning the award. Chris Paul will get a lot of love, but he has been the same (albeit awesome) guy the last couple of years and not come close to winning the award.

All-NBA First Team
G: Chris Paul, Clippers
G: Steph Curry, Warriors
F: Kevin Durant, Thunder
F: LeBron James, Cavaliers
C: Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

All-NBA Second Team
G: Tony Parker, Spurs
G: Russell Westbrook, Thunder
F: Blake Griffin, Clippers
F: Serge Ibaka, Thunder
C: Chris Bosh, Heat

All-NBA Third Team
G: John Wall, Wizards
G: James Harden, Rockets
F: LaMarcus Aldridge, Blazers
F: Kevin Love, Cavaliers
C: Joakim Noah, Chicago

All-Defensive First Team
G: Mike Conley Jr, Grizzlies
G: Andre Igoudala, Warriors
F: Kawhi Leonard, Spurs
F: Serge Ibaka, Thunder
C: Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

All-Defensive Second Team
G: Chris Paul, Clippers
G: Tony Allen, Grizzlies
F; LeBron James, Cavaliers
F: Tim Duncan, Spurs
C: Joakim Noah, Bulls

All-Rookie First Team
G: Elfrid Payton, Magic
G: Marcus Smart, Celtics
F: Andrew Wiggins, Timberwolves
F: Jabari Parker, Bucks
C: Nerlens Noel, Sixers

All-Rookie Second Team
G: Dante Exum, Jazz
G: Nik Stauskas, Kings,
F: Doug McDermott, Bulls
F: Julius Randle, Lakers
C: Noah Vonleh, Hornets

What do you think? Who will take away the big awards this season?

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How Good Will Kentucky Be in 2014-15?

After winning the National Championship in 2012 with one of the most dominant teams in NCAA history, the last two Kentucky teams have fallen short of the expectations created by John Calipari's super recruiting classes. In 2013 they were ranked in the top 5 pre-season, yet fizzled out in the NIT first round. Last year, they started at number one amid talk of 40-0 yet struggled throughout the season, needing a late SEC Tournament run to even lock in a NCAA bid. Once in the tournament they finally put it together and fulfilled pre-season predictions by making it to the championship game, though most weren't expecting 9 regular season losses. This year, expectations may be even higher, with pre-season pundits tripling-down on pre-season Kentucky hype and once again ranking the Wildcats at number 1, despite their falls from the top the last two years to the tune of 23 losses. Looking at the roster, it is hard to disagree:

Backcourt

Last season's starting backcourt returns as the Harrison twins, point guard Andrew and shooting guard Aaron, wisely avoided potential NBA draft night embarrassment to return for their Sophomore season. Before they turned things around last season, the twins were the main source of criticism and justifiably so, they failed to deliver on the hype surrounding them (not their fault) while looking immature, more concerned about complaining to the refs than getting back on defense and displaying very poor body language (their fault). Andrew in particular was abysmal, particularly running the offense and the 37% shooting mark certainly fails to inspire. Aaron scored better, but disappeared often and was very inconsistent from game to game. Their improvement is crucial to the success of the Wildcats, all the big man talent in the world is nice, but if the guys with the ball in their hands struggle, it will be hard for them to be effective. However, even if the struggles of Andrew Harrison continue, all hope is not lost because they have an alternative at the point guard position: Freshman Tyler Ulis. Though he stands but 5-9, Ulis is, unlike Harrison, a true point guard who's primary function is to make his teammates better, which Harrison frequently failed to do last season. Though it might take a lot for Calipari to bench Harrison for Ulis, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened by seasons end. Rounding out the backcourt rotation will likely be Freshman shooting guard Devin Booker, who's calling card is his jumpshot, something the big-man heavy Wildcats will definitely be in need of. He is likely to get plenty of minutes on the wing as well, because Kentucky lack any traditional "small forwards." After those four, however, there isn't much, and backcourt depth could be a significant chink in Kentucky's armor if any of those four go down or don't play well.

Frontcourt

Depth may be an issue in the backcourt, but they have no such issues up front. Returning Junior Alex Poythress will be the favorite to start at power forward, with Sophomore Marcus Lee and Freshman 5-Star Trey Lyles battling for backup minutes. Poythress has been up and down his two years at Kentucky, looking like a nigh-unstoppable force sometimes, but all to often completely disappearing. He is as strong and athletic as the come, but unlike Michael Kidd-Gilchrist before him, he doesn't have the consistent motor yet to have anywhere near that type of impact. Lee is a similar top level athlete, but he has limited experience and isn't particularly skilled. Lyles offers something different, he isn't going to blow anyone away with his physical gifts, but at 6-10, 250 he can score the ball inside and out. Perhaps the pressure behind Poythress will ignite a fire that will get some more consistency out of him. However, if Calipari prefers to keep him in the same role as last year, short bursts off the bench, both Lee and Lyles offer differing skill-sets that can be mixed and matched accordingly. At center, things are just as log-jammed with Junior Willie Cauley-Stein returning as a starter, with Sophomore Darkari Johnson and top 5 incoming recruit Karl-Anthony Towns also in the mix. Cauley-Stein is a tremendous athlete who at 7-1 can radically alter an opposing game plan, however like Poythress he is maddeningly inconsistent. If he falters, Calipari can insert Johnson into the starting lineup (which he did at times last year) who is much more offensively skilled, but struggles defensively. Towns is of course who everyone will want to see, he isn't a defensive force, but is one of the most skilled big men to come along in recent years, featuring a post game, 3-point range, and ball-handling ability. The hope is competition will bring the cream to the top amongst the frontcourt players, but it can also breed discontentment and transfers if things go wrong. 

How to Make it Work On the Court

Kentucky's best offense will likely be screen-heavy, with Towns setting the pick and either rolling or popping, if Poythress can regain his spot-up shooting form, he can set up in the corner, with Booker and Aaron Harrison also spreading the floor. Ulis is better suited than Andrew Harrison to run this kind of offense and it shouldn't come as any surprise if he is the starter eventually, or at least on the court in critical offensive situations. The Wildcats can also play uptempo lineups with Cauley-Stein, Lee, and Poythress, or try to dominate inside using a big, twin towers approach with Towns, Johnson, or Lyles pairing up. Defensively, Kentucky needs their Junior forwards to grow as technical players, and not just rely on their athleticism. Too often Cauley-Stein, Poythress, and Lee as well would fail to box out, rotate correctly, of hedge screens. All three have the ability to dominate defensively, but they can't just outjump opponents every time, they have to play smarter and with a greater grasp of fundamentals. Ulis is the best guard Kentucky has at pressuring the ball, but his height will be an issue against bigger guards, which is where the Harrison's will have to step up their effort. Neither Towns nor Lyles or Johnson have a reputation as top defenders, but if they can use their size and long arms to clog the lane and make opponents shoot over them, Kentucky should break even on that end.

The X Factor

This team is undoubtedly the most talented since 2012 with remarkable frontcourt depth, returning Sophomores and Juniors, and a pretty soft SEC to run through. However, talent isn't enough, and though Calipari is an excellent coach, the pieces have to fit and the players need to buy in. That is what made the 2012 national title winning team so special, they didn't just have talent, their two best players were commited to defense and team first, night and night out and the rest of the team fell in line behind them. So while the Wildcats may have the more NBA talent than the 76ers, they either need upperclassmen (who haven't shown much leadership in the past) to become leaders and tone setters, or else they will have to rely on one of the incoming freshman to take that role, certainly not a given.

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