Monday, April 11, 2011

An early 2012 top 15

1. Anthony Davis, PF Kentucky Fr. (6-10, 200)
Anthony Davis was a 6-2 guard a little over a year ago, then he experienced a rapid 8 inch growth spurt but still retained his guard skills and fluidity. Yet he doesn't try to play on the perimeter and shy from contact. Davis uses his length and athleticism in the post to rebound, block shots, and score on a consistent basis, yet can also grab a rebound and run the break. I'd expect him to average 15 points, 8-10 rebounds, 2-3 assists and 2-3 blocks on an absolutely loaded Kentucky team.

2. Michael Gilchrist, SF Kentucky Fr. (6-7, 210)
Michael Gilchrist is the ultimate role player, who's a jump shot short of being a superstar. As he is now, he's on of the most versatile players in the country. The comparisons to Scottie Pippen, minus the shooting, are apt. Gilchrist is a tremendous athlete with an endless competitive drive and motor. His jumpshot, however, needs to be reconstructed. Once he gets that fixed, the sky is the limit for him because that's really his only weakness.

3. Jared Sullinger, PF Ohio State So. (6-9, 260)
Sullinger doesn't really have to do anything but improve his numbers some (a lock considering what Ohio State loses) and stay in shape. If he does that, he'll be considered one of the safest and best draft picks in the 2012 draft.

4. Austin Rivers, SG Duke Fr. (6-4, 190)
Believe it or not, if Austin River tries to prove he's a point guard and not an undersized shooting guard, it's going to hurt him more than it helps him. He's not a point guard and if he tries to force passes that aren't there instead of being the dominant scorer he is, it's going to make him look bad, play bad, and hurt his stock.

5. Quincy Miller, PF Baylor Fr. (6-10, 210)
Quincy Miller bares and uncanny resemblance to former Baylor super-recruit in Perry Jones. Jones is a likely top 5 pick, but could have easily been the top pick if he coasted less and posted more. Miller is another, big, athletic player with guard skills but he's got this advantage over Jones: he's more assertive and he's more adepts a playing with his back to the basket. His biggest weakness is he falls in love with his jump shot (which he can absolute drain) when it's not always the best shot he can get with his low post and driving skills.

6. Tristan Thompson, PF Texas So. (6-8, 240)
Thompson would be a lottery pick if he had decides to declare for the 2011 draft, however he wants to go back to school to play with fellow Canadian Myck Kabongo. As long as Thompson continues to polish his game and bring the same energy to every single play like he did last year, he'll be easily a lottery pick again with a good shot at the top 10.

7. James McAdoo, PF North Carolina Fr. (6-8, 215)
Despite being athletically gifted, James McAdoo doesn't fall into the trap of simply relying on his superior athleticism. Fundamentally sound, skilled around the basket, and smart beyond his experience, McAdoo rarely takes bad shots and lets the action dictate his play. This is important because despite being a solid rebound and defender, scouts are always going to look at his lack of height as a weakness. He'll also see limited minutes because John Henson decided to return to school for his Junior season.

8. Myck Kabongo, PG Texas Fr. (6-1, 175)
Kabongo is a sort of poor man's John Wall as a prospect. He's got tremendous end to end speed and athleticism combined with the floor vision of a pure point guard. Kabongo is the best athlete/pure point since Wall, though Wall is bigger, faster, and an even better passer. Which is why Wall was a unanimous number 1 pick and Kabongo is a top 10 prospect. However, Kabongo has this advantage over Wall: he's a much better jump shooter. Kabongo can knock it down consistently from deep. If he runs the show in Texas like he can, he'll have a great shot at the top five, as pure point guards are always coveted.

9. Marquis Teague, PG Kentucky Fr. (6-2, 175)
The next in the long line of one and done Calipari point guards, Marquis Teague is perfect for the Kentucky dribble-drive offense because he can penetrate at will and finish around the basket. Teague is an elite athlete with speed and quickness as well as the ability to finish. He's got point guard skills with good floor vision but hasn't developed into a pure point yet. If Teague can balance his scoring with running the team, he'll be a top ten pick, but if he is selfish and derails and incredible talented team, it'll really hurt his stock.

10. Thomas Robinson, PF Kansas Jr. (6-9, 240)
Tenth is conservative for Thomas Robinson, who's had the ability to be a top 5 pick for the past two years, but just didn't get the playing time due to the presence Cole Aldrich and the Morris twins. All those players are gone now, however and it's going to be his team next season. He'll be far and away the best player on the team, will see a ton of minutes and be the one Kansas relies on all season. If he can handle the upped defensive attention and continue to grow his game and be just as efficient he's got a chance at being a top 5 pick. Scouts already love him, and that at only 14.6 minutes per game.

11. Bradley Beal, SG Florida Fr. (6-4, 210)
I'm not as high on Beal as an NBA prospect as some, but clearly he's a lottery pick. The reason he's a lottery pick is his shooting. He'll be one of the top shooters in the country when he arrives at Florida and should only get better. The most impressive thing about Beal's game is his advanced knowledge of using screen and moving without the ball, he's already getting comparisons to Ray Allen. My issue with him is he's undersized, is just a good ball handler, and doesn't create his own shot easily. There's a place for him the NBA but I couldn't take him above more multi-skilled players.

12. John Henson, PF North Carolina Jr. (6-10, 200)
I'm not sure it was the best idea for John Henson to go back to school, unless he can add 25 pounds over the summer, I don't know what else he's going to accomplish. His two big selling points are his length and athleticism, which have been there the whole time and aren't going anywhere. His offense is raw, but he'd be a lottery pick this year and would be able to improve his offense and body in the NBA better than he can in college. The risk is that he can't put on weight, doesn't develop on offense, and drops out of the lottery. Not to mention the fact that his basketball IQ is questionable at best and the guy he's playing ahead of, James McAdoo, is a much more complete player and should compete for at least as many minutes as Henson.

13. Adonis Thomas, SF Memphis Fr. (6-6, 215)
One of the more unusual players in the draft, Adonis Thomas projects as a small forward in the NBA but has the ability to play the 2, 3, and 4 and has the IQ to take advantage of each matchup. He's too strong in the post for wings and too quick slashing to the basket for power forwards. Too max out his potential, he'll need to work on his three point shooting but he's got a high ceiling.

14. LeBryan Nash, SF Oklahoma State Fr. (6-7, 230)
If you're going to create a perfect small forward for the NBA, he'd have the body and athleticism of LeBryan Nash (he also might have the ridicules 2K11 create-a-player name like LeBryan Nash). Athletically and size wise, he's ready for the NBA (he looks like a young Ron Artest on the floor) though he could use a year of seasoning and learning from upperclassmen, which he'll hopefully get at Oklahoma State. He's a great defender and the best finisher in the class, though he needs to work on being more consistent with his jump shot and work on his attitude.

15. Terrence Ross, SG Washington So. (6-6, 190)
Ross was a top recruit last year, but got somewhat buried on Washington last year despite being very productive when he played, 9 out of 11 times he played 20+ minutes he scored in double digits, including 19 points in 24 minutes against North Carolina in the second round of the Tournament. Athletically gifted and smooth out on the floor, Ross is a killer in transition due to his explosiveness, but is also a very good three point shooter with a great stroke and the ability to rise above defenders to get his shot off. He's got the size, athleticism, and skills of a prototypical NBA 2 guard and now will get the minutes to prove it.

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