Wednesday, April 20, 2011

2011 NFL Mock Draft: 4/21

1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB Auburn Jr. (6-5, 248)
This seems to be the consensus pick for Carolina at this point, and to me it makes a lot of sense. If you're a bad, small market team without a lot of hope on the horizon, creating buzz for your team is almost as important as improving on the field. I know Panther fans will scream that they don't want Newton, but you want to bet that his jersey will lead sales for the team? I think so.

2. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama Jr. (6-3, 319)
The Broncos shouldn't even look offense until at least 4 picks in. There's holes all over Denver's defense while their offense is good enough to stand pat on until the later rounds. Two areas of big concern for the Broncos are the trouble they had generating pressure and stopping the run last season. Don't buy the Von Miller talk, he doesn't fit their system and the Broncos want to trade down: you do the math.

3. Buffalo Bills: Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M Sr. (6-3, 246)
I'm not sure if the Bills infatuation is for real, or another smoke screen like with Denver. If the Bills intend on switching back to a 4-3, then I don't think he's worth the pick, but if they're staying with the 3-4, I buy it. Buffalo finished 29th in the league in sacks last season with 27, Miller had 39 in his last two seasons at Texas A&M.

4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, Georgia Jr. (6-4, 211)
The Bengals have a number of options depending on how things shake out above them, they could go quarterback or defensive line if A.J. Green is gone, or best player available and take Patrick Peterson. Green is most likely at the top of Bengals board and will be the pick if available.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson, CB LSU Jr. (6-1, 219)
This pick is equal parts value and need. Peterson is the most talented player in this draft and the Cardinals could use an upgrade over Greg Toler, who is better suited to play nickle.

6. Cleveland Browns: Robert Quinn, DE North Carolina Jr. (6-4, 265)
Cleveland fans are clamoring for Julio Jones, rightly stating that their wide receiving corp is one of the worst in the league. Well, unfortunately for the Browns, their stable of defensive linemen is comparatively even worse. They've only got one guy on the roster who'd start on a 4 man front for any other team in the league.

7. San Francisco 49ers: Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri Jr. (6-4, 234)
The 49ers were easily the most talented team in their division last season, yet finished third because of bad quarterback play. If quarterback guru Jim Harbaugh can work some magic on Blaine Gabbert and have him ready to start by midseason, the 49ers have a good chance to go from picking in the top ten to the playoffs.

8. Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley, DT Auburn Jr. (6-3, 297)
The Titans will most likely lose Jason Babin, a key reason they had 40 sacks last season, whenever free agency starts. Nick Fairley won't replace his production at end, but when paired with Jason Jones at tackle and Derrick Morgan at end, the Titans should stay in the top 10 in sacks.

9. Dallas Cowboys: Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska Sr. (6-0, 206)
I'll buy Jerry Jones taking an offensive lineman in the top ten when I see it. Until then it's best player available plus need, which equals Prince Amukamara.

10. Washington Redskins: J.J Watt, DE Wisconsin Jr. (6-5, 290)
Julio Jones is definitely an option here, but taking a wide receiver when you're projected starting defensive end is Vonnie Holiday is the kind of management that the new regime in Washington claims to not practice.

11. Houston Texans: Aldon Smith, OLB Missouri Jr. (6-4, 263)
The Texans would love for Prince Amukamara to fall to them, and there's still a chance they reach for Jimmy Smith, but I think they go rush linebacker. Aldon Smith is a similar type of tall, athletic linebacker to those that new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips drafted in Dallas.

12. Minnesota Vikings: Corey Liuget, Illinois Jr. (6-2, 298)
This may seem high for Liuget, but he's a penetrating defensive tackle who's closer to Nick Fairley in ability than you'd think. Liuget just lacks the elite burst to take down players at a high level after getting the pressure up the middle. Fairley has that burst, which is why he had higher sack totals.

13. Detroit Lions: Tyron Smith, OT USC Jr. (6-5, 307)
I keep hearing that the Lions are okay with Jeff Backus at left tackle. Ok, well, are they alright with Corey Hillard at right tackle? They can't be. Upgrading the protection of Matthew Stafford and a running game ranked 20th in the league in yards per carry. Tyron Smith could play right or left tackle for Detriot depending on what the Lions want to do with Backus.

14. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones, WR Alabama Jr. (6-3, 220)
This is a dream situation for Rams, who have a couple 2 and 3 receivers, but no true number 1. With elite physical ability and competitive drive, Julio Jones has the ability of a top receiver. Jones could go as high as number 4 but could also fall some due to concerns about his hands and a broken foot.

15. Miami Dolphins: Mike Pouncey, OG Florida Sr. (6-5, 303)
Mark Ingram is the trendy pick here and could easily go here, but this is a very deep running back draft for later rounds and Ingram has injury concerns. The Dolphins offense is built around their offensive line but their guards struggled last season. Pouncey could play center down the line, but should be able to start from day one at guard.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue Sr. (6-4, 267)
Signing Aaron Kampman was the right idea last season, because the Jaguars pass rush was dreadful, but he's too injury prone to be counted for a full season. Kerrigan is a high motor pass rusher who brings it every play. He may never be a double digit sack guy, but because of his endless motor he'll make his fair share of impact plays for a defense that desperately needs it.

17. New England Patriots (from Oakland Raiders): Cameron Jordan, DE California Sr. (6-4, 287)
The Patriots signed Marcus Stroud and will have Ty Warren coming back from injuries, but Bill Belichick likes to rotate lineman and will love a high motor, violent pass rusher like Cameron Jordan.

18. San Diego Chargers: Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College Sr. (6-7, 311)
The Chargers offensive line game up 38 sacks last season, which can't continue if they want Phillip Rivers to continue at an elite level. A full season of Marcus McNeil will help, but right tackle is still an issue. Castonzo isn't a perfect fit at right tackle, but he works well with the type of offense San Diego runs.

19. New York Giants: Nate Solder, OT Colorado Sr. (6-8, 319)
The Giants will most likely try to trade down, but if they do pick here, they'll look to target a need down the line. Nate Solder needs some time, which the Giants can give him as they've got some esteblished, if aging, starters at tackle.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Da'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson Jr. (6-3, 280)
This has got to be the floor for Da'Quan Bowers, his knee injury has a lot of teams concerned, but at this point the risk/reward for a team like Tampa Bay that desperately needs a player with his abilities, swings firmly towards reward.

21. Kansas City Chiefs: Justin Houston, OLB Georgia Jr. (6-3, 270)
Some scouts think Justin Houston is too big and not fluid enough to play outside linebacker, however he's actually smaller than Tamba Hali and Hali isn't exactly the most fluid in space. He's still one of the best sack artists in the NFL and Houston would compliment him well rushing the passer.

22. Indianapolis Colts: Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin Sr. (6-7, 314)
If the Colts want to win another Super Bowl with Peyton Manning, they can't keep ignoring the offensive line. Gabe Carimi is a capable pass rusher, but should also help boost the Colts anemic rushing offense.

23. Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado Sr. (6-2, 211)
The Eagles would love for one of the top tackle to fall to them so they can help protect Michael Vick, but in this scenario they fill their second biggest need at cornerback. Jimmy Smith is super talented but has character concerns that cause him to drop some.

24. New Orleans Saints: Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa Sr. (6-3, 281)
The Saints really need to boost their defensive line, both pass rushing and stopping the run. Signing Shaun Rogers helps, but they still have a hole at left end. Adrian Clayborn is a perfect fit for that spot and for the Saints defense.

25. Seattle Seahawks: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Temple Jr. (6-4, 315)
The Seahawks have a ton of options at this spot but I think defensive tackle is their biggest need. None of the DTs Seattle has on its roster would start for a good team, they have a severe drought of talent at that position.

26. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon Harris, CB Miami Jr. (5-10, 191)
Teams like the Ravens and Steelers don't put a lot of stock in top flight corners, yet it's continually bit them when they face high powered offenses that spread them out. If they want to stay near the top of the league, the Ravens need to upgrade their corners.

27. Atlanta Falcons: Mark Ingram, RB Alabama Jr. (5-9, 215)
This may seem like a weird pick for the Falcons, but Michael Turner has had injury problems the last two years and is almost 30 while Jason Snelling hasn't proved he can be a workhorse and only averaged 3.9 yards per carry last season.

28. New England Patriots: Brooks Reed, OLB Arizona Sr. (6-3, 263)
The Patriots must address their pass rush in their first two picks because what they have now just isn't going to cut it. Brooks Reed is the type of athletic, high motor play the Patriots love.

29. Chicago Bears: Derrek Sherrod, OT Mississippi State Sr. (6-5, 321)
The Bears dreadful offensive lost them a chance to play in the Super Bowl last season and must be an offseason priority. Derrek Sherrod could start at either left or right tackle depending on what they want to do with Frank Omiyale.

30. New York Jets: Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio State Sr. (6-5, 294)
Mike Devito is at backup at best at defensive end for the Jets, so without a corner or pass rusher worth taking they'll take Cameron Heyward, an ideal fit for 3-4 end.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Phil Taylor, DT Baylor Sr. (6-3, 334)
Casey Hampton is still a good player, but at 33 he can't keep it up forever. The Steelers are famous for picking for the future and Phil Taylor fits that mold.

32. Green Bay Packers: Akeem Ayers, LB UCLA Jr. (6-3, 254)
The Packers need a compliment to Clay Matthews at outside linebacker and Akeem Ayers is a perfect fit. He can rush the passer, play the run, and play in coverage which Dom Capers will love because he can disguise what both Matthews and Ayers are doing, a staple of their defense.

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