Phil Pressey Scouting Report

A preseason All-American pick for many this year, Phil Pressey and his Missouri team didn't live up to expectations. Now, he's decided to forgo his Senior season to enter the NBA Draft, does he have the game to make it in the Association?

Strengths: Phil Pressey is a pass first point guard with very good court vision and passing ability. He is able to run the pick-and-roll, and find teammates effectively. Though he will need to get stronger in order take contact at the rim, Pressey has decent bulk for his size. Pressey should look to Kyle Lowry as an example of how to form his body. Athletically, he is a very explosive leaper (look up the YouTube video of him dunking over a guy in high school) and has great quickness and is an above-average ballhandler. His ability to penetrate and find teammates should translate well to the NBA. He has a nice, easy stroke as a shooter and can hit an NBA 3-pointer. Very good transition player. He gives good effort defensively and gets a lot of steals (2 a game over the course of his career). By all accounts, Pressey is a great kid and a strong leader on and off the court.



Weaknesses: There's no doubt that Pressey is undersized for a point guard. He's been measured at 5-11 in shoes, which would make him one of the shortest point guards in the NBA. Though plenty of players have succeeded at Pressey's height or shorter, it is definitely more challenging  He's had trouble finishing over size in college, and that won't get easier for him in the NBA. Pressey isn't a great shooter yet, and that is something he must improve on in the NBA if he wants to make it. Overall, he hasn't been a very efficient scorer, with only 38% field goal percentage. He can also be pretty turnover prone (3.5 a game) and can try to do too much a times. Defensively, again size will be an issue, though if he can get stronger, he has the quickness and athleticism to at least be average at that end. One oddity about his Junior season was that he really struggled down the stretch, completely falling apart occasionally for no apparent reason.

Overall: Whether Pressey can succeed in the NBA, it will hinge on his ability to make 3s and cut turnovers. Shooting will be especially important, he needs to be able to keep defenders honest so they he'll be able to get into the lane and create for teammates. I think Pressey gets drafted in the second round and makes a team, eventually carving out a role as a backup point guard that pushes the pace and runs pick-and-roll. Isaiah Thomas was a better scorer than Pressey, but isn't nearly the passer, I think their careers will take similar arcs. Again, this is all providing he improves his shooting, which is something Thomas did, by the way.

Russ Smith Scouting Report

After winning a National Championship with Louisville and leading his team in scoring at 18.7 points per game, Russ Smith has declared for the NBA draft, forgoing his eligibility for the Cardinals. But how does this flashy, college scorer translate to the NBA?

Strengths: First off, Russ Smith is as quick as they come, most college defenders were unable to keep him in front of them in the half court. Smith is an advanced ballhandler and can use a variety of moves, though most of the time his quickness will get him by at the college level. In transition, Smith is a nightmare, blazing, one-man-fastbreak who will run the ball down opponents backs in the open floor. Smith is a good leaper who can get off the ground quickly and hang in the air, able to contort his body well. There's no denying that Smith can get his own shot and get open looks when he wants. He is a streaky shooter who can get hot from deep and hit several in a row. Smith also has a knack for picking up steals (2.1 a game) and is a willing defender who will pressure the ball. He can draw fouls a high rate as well. Smith is extremely well liked by his teammates and a leader on his team.

Weaknesses: To begin with Smith is severely undersized for his position of 2 guard, listed 6-1, he's more
likely 6-0 or 5-11 as well as being around 160-170 range in weight, that's Kemba Walker range for size (though Walker is a little taller), and Walker has had trouble finishing at the NBA level, as will Smith at that size, especially since he already struggles at the college level. Walker went 9th overall in 2011, but he's a point guard, Smith is far from that. He thinks shoot first, second, and third and hasn't shown much ability create for teammates. I don't think he's a selfish player, so much as scoring is what he is good at, therefore that's what he does. Smith's shot selection at times is also pretty poor, he can get hot from 3, but overall shot  it at just 33% from deep, yet he still took 189 threes over the course of the season. Overall, the shot selection problem led to an efficiency problem, as Smith only shot it at 41% on the year, and that's not going to go up in the NBA. The other issue regarding Smith's size is his defense, he will be physically overmatched defensively against NBA point guards, let alone NBA two guards, his natural position. Can be turnover prone as well, will force things.

Overall: Smith is a very undersized, somewhat one-dimensional scorer who needs to either become a much, much better shooter or improve his point guard skills and shot selection because undersized, low-effieciency 2 guards don't last. He'll need to make himself into a Jason Terry-type of player if he wants to make it in this league. I think Smith gets drafted in the second round and makes it on an NBA roster, but where he goes from there will be to him.

Steven Adams Scouting Report

Despite saying after Pittsburgh's loss to Wichita State that he was returning to school for next season, New Zealand native Steven Adams did a turn around and has declared for the NBA Draft. Here are some of his strengths and weaknesses as an NBA prospect...

Strengths: Physically, Adams looks like an NBA player, he has great size (7-0), an NBA body that is very impressive when you take into account that he only 19. Like almost all prospects, Adams needs to add strength and bulk, but his size at 240+ pounds is better than most and he has the frame to get big enough for an NBA center. He also has long arms and very large hands, which he uses for catching passes and rebounds well. Athletically, he is above-average for his size and has good second bounce. Where Adams provides his biggest value is as a rebounder and defender. On the boards, he averaged 6.3 boards in only 23.4 minutes, he has basically the same rebound rate as Mason Plumlee overall, but is much better on the offensive glass. That is Adams best attribute, comparing him to Plumlee, despite playing 499 less minutes, Adams only grabbed 9 less boards (99 to 90). Part of that is Plumlee not being a great offensive rebounder, but Adams is still an impressive offensive rebounder. On defense, Adams is a very tough as a post defender and is willing to bang inside. He is already strong for his age and should get stronger, developing into a very good one-on-one interior defender. Adams is also very good blocking shots despite again, limited minutes, averaging 2 game, this is something else that should translate to the next level for Adams. As should his motor, which runs hot constantly. Not overly foul prone either. Also, has been known to sport a mustache.

Weaknesses: There is no other way to put this, Adams is extremely raw on the offensive end. Aside from
uncontested shots close to the basket, at this point he doesn't offer much else on offense. Even close shots, when facing contact or length, can give Adams some troubles. Obviously, as an 19 year old playing basketball in American for the first time on a consistent basis, Adams is expected to be raw and given his tools, he does have the chance to improve. Though improvement is likely, he is a ways away however and youth doesn't always mean upside, for example Kendrick Perkins and Kwame Brown both came straight out of High School as big, strong, athletes, but neither developed into an offensive threat at all (in 20 combined seasons, Brown and Perkins have two years averaging double digits). All that to say, despite having very good tools, it's not a given that Adams will become and offensive player. Adams is a stiffish mover as well, which is a worry if he is going to continue to pack on weight, it could impede his movement at the next level. Though he plays very hard and is always hustling on defense, he still has a ways to go as far as learning how to play smart on that end of the floor. Awareness is also a concern.

Overall: With Adams, you have a potential ace post defender, rebounder, and post defender who will be a major work-in-progress on offense. To me, that at least gives him a career as backup center in the NBA, with the possibility of being a solid starter combining above-average defense with average offense. But again, it all comes down to if that offense develops. Of the three backup center types available in the late first, I'd have Adams ranked above Jeff Withey but behind Gorgui Dieng.

Match-Ups to Watch: West Region

(8)Pittsburgh vs. (9)Wichita State
Steven Adams vs. Cleanthony Early, Ehimem Orukpe, and Carl Hall
Wichita State is a top 10 team in terms of rebounding margin and they grab over 13 offensive boards a game while Pittsburgh ranks thirteenth in rebounding margin, so this game may come down to who can control the glass better. Steven Adams came into the country as a Freshman with a ton of hype, but after a couple of games it was clear that he was very raw on the offensive end. Throughout the season, he's struggled on offense, only scoring in double digits 5 times all season. What was equally clear about Adams was that he has size, length, and athleticism were something you can't teach. At 7-0, 250, Adams has surprising mobility and athleticism and a 7-3 wingspan that give him a big advantage on the boards and on defense. To say his defense is way ahead of his offense is an understatement, but the physical talent here is obvious. As it stands now, he's best served coming back to school, but could be a late first round pick in this draft. For Wichita State, they don't have any NBA prospects, but they've got some strong college players, particularly in the frontcourt, with a pair of big, 6-8 forwards, Cleanthony Early and Carl Hall who can really get after it in the pain, especially Hall, who averages 3.3 offensive boards a game. The Shockers best rebounder is probably their center Ehimen Orukpe, who only plays 16 minutes a game, yet still comes down with 4.5 boards a game. Beyond those three, the Shockers will throw waves of guys to the offensive glass, so it will be crucial for Adams to have an impact.

(2)Ohio State vs. (15)Iona
Aaron Craft and Lenzelle Smith Jr. vs. Sean Armand and Lamont "Momo" Jones
The calling card for Ohio State this season has been their perimeter defense, particularly their guards. Aaron Craft was All-Defense in the Big 10 this season and a player who can relentlessly pressure the ball, while also picking up a ton of steals (2 a game) while Lenzelle Smith Jr. has also been really good on defense as well. In Iona, Craft and Smith will have one of their bigger challenges of the season because Iona is a very guard oriented team that plays a ridicules pace. The Gaels are second in the nation in scoring, led by Lamont "Momo" Jones, a former Arizona standout that transferred to Iona two years ago. Jones is third in the country in scoring (23 points a game) and he does it with outstanding quickness, getting into the lane and scoring in transition. Sean Armand on the other hand, is lethal from 3, stretching the floor with 41% shooting on almost 8 attempts per game. Between the two of them, they average almost 39.6 points a game, just under 50% of Iona's offense. Iona may not have much of a chance to beat the Buckeyes, but the up-and-down, high scoring Iona offense coming from Jones and Armand going up against the slogging Big 10 paced Ohio State and their lockdown guards should be really entertaining none the less.

(7)Notre Dame vs. (10)Iowa State
Jack Cooley vs. Georges Niang, and Melvin Ejim
Though it may not have much in the way of NBA prospect significance and neither of these teams is likely to do much in the NCAA Tournament, but it should be a fun match-up watch Jack Cooley battle Iowa State's combination of forwards. Cooley is definitely a paint player and when he is on offense, I don't know if anyone on Iowa State can stop him 1-on-1 or keep him off the offensive glass (he's one of the best in the country at 4 a game), it will take a dedicated team effort on the Cyclones part to stop him from taking over the game in the paint. However, when Iowa State is on offense, they will force Cooley to guard on the perimeter, which can be problematic. Georges Niang (39%) and Melvin Ejim (36%) can both shoot the ball from the outside and for most of the game Cooley will be forced to guard one of them. Iowa State used this strategy against Kansas, pulling Jeff Withey out of the paint, and they took them to overtime twice. This will be a very interesting match-up as the coaches of both teams try to exploit the other without exposing weaknesses of their own.

(6) Arizona vs (11)Belmont

Mark Lyons and Nick Johnson vs. Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson
Belmont over Arizona is a trendy upset pick this year, and with good reason because the Bruins matchup really well against the Wildcats. Arizona has two big weaknesses, first is field goal percentage defense, they rank 275th in the country, allowing 36% shooting from beyond the arc. Their other weakness is the play of their guards, no one is more up and down than Mark Lyons and Nick Johnson, particularly Lyons who can really struggle at times, turning the ball over, taking bad shots, and ignoring teammates. While on the other hand, Belmont has two big strengths: the first is 3-point shooting, they are 18th in the nation in 3-point field goal percentage (38.6%), making 8.5 a game. Their other strength is backcourt defense, Ian Clark is a relentless defender and the OVC Defensive Player of the Year while Kerron Johnson is also a really good defender, the Bruins defense in is 12th in the nation in turnover margin, while Arizona is 137th. If Clarke and Johnson outplay Lyons and Johnson and Belmont gets rolling from deep, an upset is not only possible, but likely.

Match-Ups to Watch: Midwest Region

(5)Oklahoma State vs (12)Oregon
Le'Bryan Nash vs. Arsalan Kazemi
There aren't many players in the country with combination of strength, size, and athleticism as Le'Bryan Nash, at 6-7, 230 he's got elite hops and great length. He's still a work in progress on the offensive end, but his ability to just out-athlete muscle opponents makes him very effective at this level. Nash is very good in the post and draws a lot of fouls because of his ability to draw contact. However, luckily for Oregon, they have one of the few guys in the country that can match-up physically with Nash. Arsalan Kazemi isn't quite the athlete Nash is (not a knock on him), but he's every bit as big and strong. Kazemi is one of the toughest players in College Basketball, he is always hustling and can really crash the boards (9.5 boards a game). The battle between Nash and Kazemi, particularly in the post, should be fantastic. Nash is a first round draft pick, and he could really boost his stock with a good showing, especially against a guy like Kazemi, who could get a look in the second round himself, and at worst has a career in Europe ahead of him.

Marcus Smart vs. Dominic Artis
Big 12 POY Marcus Smart has the potential to be the top overall pick, he is the engine that makes Oklahoma State go, both as an emotional leader and as a playmaker from the point guard position. He runs the Cowboy offense and creates havoc on the defensive end. Smart is one of the biggest point guards in the country (6-4, 225), and he will have a big size advantage over Oregon point guard Dominic Artis (6-1, 185). Artis was injured part way through the season, and after he got hurt Oregon struggled. He's come back since then and the Ducks have picked it up again, however Artis is still clearly rusty. If Artis can get back to full strength for this game, it should provide with a very interesting matchup. Smart has the big size advantage, but it will be big to see if he can stay in front of the smaller, quick Artis. Artis doesn't put up huge numbers, but he makes the Oregon offense run smoothly and if Smart can disrupt him down, it will go a long way to push Oklahoma State to the next round. Oregon was woefully under-seeded so this will be a closer game than most expect. If Smart dominates and continues to make winning plays on both ends, it will help to solidify him as a top 3 pick.

(8)Colorado State vs. (9)Missouri
Laurence Bowers and Alex Oriakhi vs. Colton Iverson and Pierce Hornug
Missouri and Colorado State are two of the top 4 rebounding teams, as far as rebounds per game, in the country, so you can expect a battle in the paint, and that battle will be at it's fiercest when Colton Iverson (6-10, 260, 9.8 rpg) and Pierce Hornug (6-6, 210, 9.2 rpg) goes up against Alex Oriakhi (6-9, 255, 8.6 rpg) and Laurence Bowers (6-8, 227, 6.2 rpg). Iverson is a load in the paint and can really score inside, and it will be up to Oriakhi to battle him in the paint, while Bowers will have to deal with Hornug's hustle, particularly on the offensive boards (4.2 per game). Bowers, Oriakhi, and Iverson all have potential to be second round picks in the NBA, but this matchup is really all about just watching big, strong guys battling in the paint, both on offense, defense, and the boards. College basketball is so guards based, and there will still be a lot of guard play in this time, but the amount of big man play in this game should excite those Shaqs-at-heart.

(7)Creighton vs. (10)Cincinnati
Doug McDermott vs. Cincinnati's defense
A finalist for POY and one of the best scorers in the country, Doug McDermott can score from anywhere on the floor and is a perpetual mismatch. A guy who can score in the post, yet still shoots 50% from 3 is extremely rare. McDermott did all that however, without facing a really good defensive team. Cincinnati is just that, they will slow down Creighton's fast paced offense to a crawl and grind them out on the boards. Cincinnati doesn't have NBA prospects, but they have guards who can get under McDermott on the perimeter and long, athletic forwards for when he posts up. If McDermott can have a big performance against a defense like the Bearcats, it could go a long way to boost his NBA status and prove that he's not just a product of competition. McDermott could come back next season and be a favorite for player of the year again, or make the jump to the NBA, which choice he makes will come down to this game.

(6)Memphis vs. (11)Saint Mary's
Matthew Dellavedova and Stephen Holt vs. Joe Jackson and Geron Johnson
Memphis has the size and athleticism advantage in this game, but it will come down to the execution of the guards to see who will ultimately win. Joe Jackson has had a very good season, but with the exception of the Louisville game, he's struggled against every good team Memphis has faced this season. Jackson's backcourt mate Geron Johnson has really started to come into his own down the stretch this season, but he also struggled against quality competition. St. Mary's offers a different challenge than VCU and Louisville's press or Minnesota and Xavier's toughness, instead the Gaels, particularly Matthew Dellavedova and Stephen Holt, will force Jackson and Johnson to be disciplined, particularly on the perimeter as both are good shooters. Where the Memphis guards will particularly have to stay disciplined is in the pick-and-roll. Dellavadova is very good at running the St. Mary's offense and will pick Memphis apart if they don't stay in front of him and play disciplined. The best NBA prospect of these four is ironically Dellavadova, who has it all except the great athleticism, he could be picked up in the second round and at worst will have a long European career.

Match-Ups to Watch: South Region

(8)North Carolina vs. (9)Villanova
James Michael McAdoo vs. Mouphtaou Yarou and JayVaughn Pinkston
Since going to a smaller lineup, with James Michael McAdoo playing center, the Tar Heels have been much better than earlier in the season. McAdoo, who used to be a projected top 10 pick, has a really up and down season, so he will need to have a big performance in the Tournament to boost his NBA stock. Also, the Tar Heels need him to have a big game, both on offense and keeping the big bodies of Mouphtaou Yarou (6-10, 255) and JayVaughn Pinkston (6-7, 260). McAdoo has struggled defensively against stronger  opponents, so Yarou and Pinkston could have an advantage in this match-up. If McAdoo can control the defensive glass, hold his own in the pain, as well as using his quickness on the offensive end, he could see a real boost this his draft stock, scouts want to love him, he just needs to give them a reason. Another thing to watch is this, Villanova is the best in the country in getting to the line (26.3 time a game) so it will be crucial for McAdoo to avoid foul trouble.

(4)Michigan vs. (13)South Dakota State
Trey Burke vs. Nate Wolters
This probably the top match-up of the Tournament's opening round. Trey Burke is the National POY and the top point guard in the country. If Burke is the best point, Nate Wolters maybe the second best. Burke is an elite pick-and-roll guard who can score in the open floor and is shooting 40% from 3 on the season. He is a likely first round draft pick. Wolters on the other hand, is the fourth leading scorer in the country who has a really complete game as a point guard; he can get to the rim, set up teammates, and shoot it from deep. Both guys are quick, skilled, and experienced  but if one guy has an advantage on the other, it's Wolters size. Burke is between 6-0 and 6-1, while Wolters stands 6-4. Burke has struggled against size and finishing at the rim, so if  Wolters can keep Burke in front of him, he'll should be able to challenge him and close that space, making it difficult for Burke. Both of these guards have a chance to go in the first round, and Wolters could be in for a big rise boards, while Burke could end up in the top 10 with a good Tournament.

(6)UCLA vs. (11)Minnesota
Shabazz Muhammad vs. Rodney Williams
Once Jordan Adams broke his ankle, it not only threw UCLA's season into panic mode, but it also put a whole lot of pressure onto Shabazz Muhammad. Muhammad is the leading scorer for the Bruins and will be expected to step up big time. He's the top 3 recruit, he's the potential lottery pick, so the expectations are very high for him. Muhammad is a strong, NBA athlete and he wasn't challenged with defenders who could match up with him very often in the Pac-12, but Minnesota has the perfect guy for him, Rodney Williams may have disappointed based on his potential, but the guy is one of the top athletes in the country and a lockdown defensive player. Watching Williams and Muhammad go at in on the perimeter should be interesting because Williams can stay in front and challenge every shot. Where Muhammad will have an advantage is in the post, so it will be interesting to see how often he'l take the ball down there. Either way, this is a chance for Muhammad to lock up a top 5 pick and Williams to make a name for himself as a defender and advance his team into the next round.

(7)San Diego State vs. (10)Oklahoma
Jamaal Franklin vs. Oklahoma's Guards
There isn't a more explosive, athletic guard in the country than Jamaal Franklin, he's one of the best rebounders in country, regardless of position (he averages a ridicules 9.5 a game) and his motor is constantly running. Oklahoma will have to figure out a way to keep up with him on the glass and in the open court if they want to win. Oklahoma has a number of guards, but none of them are the same level of size and explosiveness so it will take a team effort to slow down Franklin, while also taking care of the ball so that he can't reek as much havoc on the defensive end. Franklin has struggled shooting the ball this year, but he's the kind of high level athlete with a great motor that you just can't find, the guard version of Kenneth Faried. NBA teams love that and there isn't an NBA team that wouldn't get better with him on it, a big tournament could get him into the mid-first round.

Match-Ups to Watch: East Region

(8)North Carolina State vs. (9)Temple
Lorenzo Brown vs. Khalif Wyatt
This season hasn't gone the way that the much-hyped, very talented Wolfpack expected, but they have a good shot of winning a first round game in the tournament and giving top seed Indiana a run for their money in the round of 32. However, in order to get to the second round, NC State needs to shut down Temple's leading scorer Khalif Wyatt. Wyatt is key to the Owls because he carries their offense a lot of the time, in their biggest wins (or near wins in the case of the Kansas game), Wyatt has gone for at least 20, including 33 against Syracuse and 30 verses VCU. Wyatt is very strong, probably pushing 230 at 6-4, and can hit a myriad of crazy shots. The Wolfpack don't exactly have a lockdown perimeter player, but Lorenzo Brown, who as great size and length at 6-5, is probably their best chance. Brown, once a highly regarded NBA prospect, could provide a big boost to his stock if he can shut down Wyatt while running the Wolfpack offense on the other end.



(5)UNLV vs. (12)California
Anthony Bennett and Khem Birch vs. Richard Solomon and David Kravish

MWC Freshman of the Year Anthony Bennett is one of the top players in the country and a likely top-5 NBA pick while Khem Birch (MWC Defensive POY) has NBA size and athleticism, so it will be crucial for California, who's strength is not on the inside, to control them. Richard Solomon and David Kravish have good size and length, so it will be up to them to challenge Bennett and Birch, both on the glass and on the defensive end. Bennett is able to score from the perimeter or in the paint while Birch is able out muscle and out leap most opponents. When these teams met back in  December, Birch didn't play and Bennett dominated with 25 points and 13 boards. If Bennett can dominate, he has a chance to lock down a top-3 pick (maybe even number 1) and Birch has a chance to get more on to NBA radars.

Katin Reinhardt and Bryce Dejean-Jones vs. Allen Crabbe
Allen Crabbe is now on NBA radars as a first round pick, and I think that he could be in for a Klay Thompson-like rise. Crabbe is similar to Thompson in that he is a very good shooter with good size at 6-6 and the ability to make plays for others as well. UNLV needs to shut him down if they want to advance and they'll likely throw both Katin Reinhardt and Bryce Dejean-Jones at Crabbe. Neither is a lock-down defender, but they have the size to match up with him. He scored 18 in the December loss to the Rebels, so he'll need to top that if Cal is going to advance. Crabbe could launch himself up draft boards very quickly with a dominating performance against UNLV, which is considered one of the most talented teams in the country.

(4)Syracuse vs. (13)Montana
Michael Carter-Williams vs. Will Cherry
As Michael Carter-Williams goes, so goes Syracuse. He was tremendous during Syracuse's Big East tournament run all the way up until the second half of the Louisville game, where he fell apart, along with Syracuse. I think this Tournament will determine whether Carter-Williams goes back to school, or is a top 10 pick. If he plays well as Syracuse at least makes a run to the Sweet 16, I think he comes out and goes in the top 10, but if he struggles again, I see him coming back for his Junior season. The first test comes from Montana guard Will Cherry. Syracuse is vastly more talented than Montana, but Cherry is a good player. He is athletic and likes to get under opponents skins. Carter-Williams has 5-6 inches on Cherry, but undersized guards have bugged him before. Syracuse will likely role, but Carter-Williams needs to get his mojo back after that disastrous second half against Louisville

(6)Butler vs. (11)Bucknell

Andrew Smith vs. Mike Muscala

Really good matchups between centers are rare in college basketball these days, but we'll get one in Patriot League POY Mike Muscala and Andrew Smith of Butler. Both guys are big, listed at 6-11, 240ish, and experienced Seniors. Muscala is a dominating player, averaging 19 and 11 and he can score inside and out, while also being a defensive anchor in the middle for the Bison. Smith isn't nearly the scorer or rebounder that Muscala is, but he'll have to battle him because he's the only option Butler really has against him. If Muscala goes off, Bucknell could easily pull the upset, but if he struggles Butler will likely cruise to victory. Muscala has a potential NBA future as a second round pick, so this could be a big stage for him to show his abilities to NBA decision makers.


(7)Illinois vs. (10)Colorado
Brandon Paul  vs. Spencer Dinwiddie 
Both Colorado and Illinois are led in scoring by guards and it's likely that a game like this, which should be close down to the end, will come down to who can make better plays down the stretch. Spencer Dinwiddie is a big guard who can score in a multitude of ways, he's under the NBA radar right now, but a big game could launch him into consideration down the line while Brandon Paul was considered a first rounder after a hot start, but he's cooled off quite a bit and needs a big performance to boost his stock. Paul and Dinwiddie could go head-to-head on both ends, so whoever wins that match-up could determine the game.

Tyler Griffey and Nnanna Egwu vs. Andre Roberson
However, if it isn't the guards that determine the game, it will be the big guys, particularly who will keep the Buffalo's off the boards for Illinois. Andre Roberson is a dominating rebounder, a Kenneth Faried-lite player who has more offensive rebound this season than the Tyler Griffey and Nnanna Egwu have defensive rebound. If the Illinois cannot keep Roberson off the boards, they'll be in trouble. Roberson is a second round pick at this point, but he could rise into the first if he dominates a game or two on the boards and defensively. Teams are always looking for athletic players with great motors and Roberson is just that.