Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Match-Ups to Watch: West Region

(8)Pittsburgh vs. (9)Wichita State
Steven Adams vs. Cleanthony Early, Ehimem Orukpe, and Carl Hall
Wichita State is a top 10 team in terms of rebounding margin and they grab over 13 offensive boards a game while Pittsburgh ranks thirteenth in rebounding margin, so this game may come down to who can control the glass better. Steven Adams came into the country as a Freshman with a ton of hype, but after a couple of games it was clear that he was very raw on the offensive end. Throughout the season, he's struggled on offense, only scoring in double digits 5 times all season. What was equally clear about Adams was that he has size, length, and athleticism were something you can't teach. At 7-0, 250, Adams has surprising mobility and athleticism and a 7-3 wingspan that give him a big advantage on the boards and on defense. To say his defense is way ahead of his offense is an understatement, but the physical talent here is obvious. As it stands now, he's best served coming back to school, but could be a late first round pick in this draft. For Wichita State, they don't have any NBA prospects, but they've got some strong college players, particularly in the frontcourt, with a pair of big, 6-8 forwards, Cleanthony Early and Carl Hall who can really get after it in the pain, especially Hall, who averages 3.3 offensive boards a game. The Shockers best rebounder is probably their center Ehimen Orukpe, who only plays 16 minutes a game, yet still comes down with 4.5 boards a game. Beyond those three, the Shockers will throw waves of guys to the offensive glass, so it will be crucial for Adams to have an impact.

(2)Ohio State vs. (15)Iona
Aaron Craft and Lenzelle Smith Jr. vs. Sean Armand and Lamont "Momo" Jones
The calling card for Ohio State this season has been their perimeter defense, particularly their guards. Aaron Craft was All-Defense in the Big 10 this season and a player who can relentlessly pressure the ball, while also picking up a ton of steals (2 a game) while Lenzelle Smith Jr. has also been really good on defense as well. In Iona, Craft and Smith will have one of their bigger challenges of the season because Iona is a very guard oriented team that plays a ridicules pace. The Gaels are second in the nation in scoring, led by Lamont "Momo" Jones, a former Arizona standout that transferred to Iona two years ago. Jones is third in the country in scoring (23 points a game) and he does it with outstanding quickness, getting into the lane and scoring in transition. Sean Armand on the other hand, is lethal from 3, stretching the floor with 41% shooting on almost 8 attempts per game. Between the two of them, they average almost 39.6 points a game, just under 50% of Iona's offense. Iona may not have much of a chance to beat the Buckeyes, but the up-and-down, high scoring Iona offense coming from Jones and Armand going up against the slogging Big 10 paced Ohio State and their lockdown guards should be really entertaining none the less.

(7)Notre Dame vs. (10)Iowa State
Jack Cooley vs. Georges Niang, and Melvin Ejim
Though it may not have much in the way of NBA prospect significance and neither of these teams is likely to do much in the NCAA Tournament, but it should be a fun match-up watch Jack Cooley battle Iowa State's combination of forwards. Cooley is definitely a paint player and when he is on offense, I don't know if anyone on Iowa State can stop him 1-on-1 or keep him off the offensive glass (he's one of the best in the country at 4 a game), it will take a dedicated team effort on the Cyclones part to stop him from taking over the game in the paint. However, when Iowa State is on offense, they will force Cooley to guard on the perimeter, which can be problematic. Georges Niang (39%) and Melvin Ejim (36%) can both shoot the ball from the outside and for most of the game Cooley will be forced to guard one of them. Iowa State used this strategy against Kansas, pulling Jeff Withey out of the paint, and they took them to overtime twice. This will be a very interesting match-up as the coaches of both teams try to exploit the other without exposing weaknesses of their own.

(6) Arizona vs (11)Belmont
Mark Lyons and Nick Johnson vs. Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson
Belmont over Arizona is a trendy upset pick this year, and with good reason because the Bruins matchup really well against the Wildcats. Arizona has two big weaknesses, first is field goal percentage defense, they rank 275th in the country, allowing 36% shooting from beyond the arc. Their other weakness is the play of their guards, no one is more up and down than Mark Lyons and Nick Johnson, particularly Lyons who can really struggle at times, turning the ball over, taking bad shots, and ignoring teammates. While on the other hand, Belmont has two big strengths: the first is 3-point shooting, they are 18th in the nation in 3-point field goal percentage (38.6%), making 8.5 a game. Their other strength is backcourt defense, Ian Clark is a relentless defender and the OVC Defensive Player of the Year while Kerron Johnson is also a really good defender, the Bruins defense in is 12th in the nation in turnover margin, while Arizona is 137th. If Clarke and Johnson outplay Lyons and Johnson and Belmont gets rolling from deep, an upset is not only possible, but likely.

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