Mock drafts prior to the reveling of the actual lottery and draft order are pretty silly, but since usually the changes are minor, we can at least gain a little insight into what things will look like on draft night and what teams may be thinking. This is what I believe, without any inside information, is most likely to happen at this exact moment subject to massive changes before draft night.
Prior to Sam Hinkie's resignation, Brandon Ingram would have been the obvious choice here, however with Bryan Collangelo now in charge with presumably a mandate to make the Sixers competitive and marketable fast, it seems highly likely they will look to draft a more hyped, popular player who may be more ready to contribute from day one. Simmons is a poor fit, in my opinion, but with conventional wisdom now reigning once again in Philadelphia, Simmons seems likely to be the guy.
02. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Ingram, SF Duke
While they may be more interested in landing a quote star un-quote in the draft, Ingram is a much more obvious fit in LA, where the Lakers are severely lacking in both defensive players and shooters. Ingram also doesn't overlap positionaly with Julius Randle like Simmons would. If the lottery holds true and it goes Sixers #1 and Lakers #2, I would expect LA to draft whomever Philadephia doesn't draft between Ingram and Simmons and be completely happy with that.
03. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn): Jaylen Brown, SF California
This is the toughest pick to project, based on currant draft standing, because Boston is playoff team without a ton of obvious needs (excluding a true super-star, which you most likely aren't finding in this draft) so where do they go? Dragan Bender is the best prosper available (and the best in the draft, in my opinion) but he isn't a player likely to have an immediate impact and might not even come to the NBA right away. Add to that, the Celtics are sort of piled up in the frontcourt. Jaylen Brown, on the other hand, is also somewhat of a project but fits into the Celtics multiple offense and would be an intruiging 1-2 forward punch with Jae Crowder which would allow Boston to switch everything and be and even more threatening transition team. They could also trade the pick and throw everything off.
04. Phoenix Suns: Dragan Bender, PF Maccabi Tel Aviv
A couple of wins late in the season dropped the Suns from the third best odds to the fourth, which could be the difference between getting one of the top tier of three prospects and not. In this scenario, if Boston is unwilling to take a project in Dragan Bender, the Suns could still luck out. After trading Markeiff Morris and now potentially losing Mirza Teletovic and Jon Leuer (backups at best) power forward is an area of longterm weakness in Phoenix. Bender is a stupendous prospect with special potential as a defender and the tools to become a versatile offensive player, just what Phoenix needs.
05. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jamal Murray, SG Kentucky
Aside from power forward, the Timberwolves have their starting five set (barring a Ricky Rubio trade) and with no power forward that really fits this draft range, they can look to something else they need: shooting and shot creation. Murray is an excellent shooter and while the jury may be out on his ability to consistently create at the next level, he has a good offensive feel and may fit better in the NBA where more space is available. If they trade Ricky Rubio, Kris Dunn could be and option, and if they believe a power forward is necessary, a versatile offensive player like Henry Ellenson could be an interesting fit with Karl-Anthony Towns.
06. New Orleans Pelicans: Kris Dunn, PG Providence
While Jrue Holiday, point guard, is one of New Orleans' two actually good players under contract, both he and Kris Dunn are big enough and have the defensive chops to defend shooting guards (in fact, Dunn is actually bigger than Eric Gordon) and Holiday can shoot well enough to make this pair work. Dunn is a great defenive prospect, a killer in transition, and a willing half-court player that should flourish as a third option in the more spacious NBA. Buddy Hield, as a more traditional shooting guard, is another option, as is a potential Ryan Anderson replacement in Henry Ellenson.
07. Denver Nuggets (from New York): Henry Ellenson, PF Marquette
The Nuggets have a ton of big men, but none of their power forwards are particularly skilled offensively (unless you include Danillo Gallinari who is injured often and possibly trade-bait). Henry Ellenson is a versatile offensive player with potential as a three-point shooter. He is a project defensively, but Mike Malone is known to get the best out of such players. They have depth in most spots on their roster and could go in many ways but Ellenson makes a lot of sense as a compliment to Kenneth Faried at power forward.
08. Sacramento Kings: Buddy Hield, SG Oklahoma
This is a marriage of player and team that just needs to happen. Hield could (foolishly) go earlier but if he is there, or if the Kings can acquire him by trade, it is something that would be perfect for them both on and off the court. Hield is exactly the type of player Sacramento needs, a knockdown three point shooter that is terrific moving off the ball. He is also a high character individual and tireless worker, the type of leader that the Kings desperately need. Make it happen, Vlade Divac (but don't give up too much)
09. Toronto Raptors (from Denver): Marquese Chriss, PF Washington
The Raptors love taking high-upside projects, and while their thinking may change this picking this high, I doubt it. Marquese Chriss, with work, could seriously be their starting power forward of the future, something they aren't particularly set up with at this point. Chriss has the potential to be a dynamite offensive player that can shoot and drive. He is a raw player that very much needs to learn the game, but the tools are off the charts.
10. Milwaukee Bucks: Jakob Poeltl, C Utah
Another perfect marriage of player/team. Since they made the change from Zaza Pachulia to Greg Monroe, the Bucks haven't been the same team. The need someone who an excell on the defensive glass, protect the rim, and set good screens, which are all areas that Poeltl could excel at. Monroe, if he isn't traded, could still be gone after next season, which would open the door for Poeltl full time. Last season, Milwaukee brought Monroe of the bench and started Miles Plumlee. Poeltl could do the same, and be much better than Plumlee.
11. Orlando Magic: Ivan Rabb, PF California
The Magic have big plans when it comes to adding free agents this summer, so they could trade this pick to save space or draft a stash prospect, however if they do go with a prospect that could play this year for them, power forward is an area they could address. Aaron Gordon is already blossoming into a star, but Jason Smith also played heavy minutes last season as his backup, which translates to you need another backup power forward, particularly since Smith is a free agent this summer. Ivan Rabb is a very solid player, smart and skilled. He is limit in some ways, but should be a good option for rebounding, defense, and some inside-out scoring off the bench.
12. Utah Jazz: Demetrius Jackson, PG Norte Dame
Even if Dante Exum returns to full strength next season, Utah will still need a point guard because the poo-poo platter of Shelvin Mack, Raul Neto, and Trey Burke just isn't going to cut it for a playoff team, especially if Exum (who has a ways to go himself) isn't back to full-strength. Demetrius Jackson is better than all those other options, a dynamic athlete that has a long track record of excellent outside shooting and tough defense. He could backup Exum or play alongside him, due to Exum's excellent size. Utah needs a point guard that can create, defend, and shoot, not just one of those things.
13. Phoenix Suns (from Washington): Timothe Luwawu, SF Mega Leks
With their second first round pick in the draft, the Suns can look to shore up another area of need, small forward (or power forward if they draft, say, Jaylen Brown with their earlier pick). With what appears to be three high-usage guards on the roster, the Suns need players to go with them that don't need the ball to be valueable. Timothe Luwawu looks to be that type of player, a versatile defensive wing with potential in that area as well as shooting the ball, where he has made great strides of late, however his low release is still somewhat of a question mark.
14. Chicago Bulls: Denzel Valentine, SG Michigan State
This seems like the kind of pick the Bulls seem to like. A decorated four year college player that can probably play very soon in his young career. Denzel Valentine is not without his faults (defense) but he seems like an ideal fit in Fred Hoiberg's offense because he is a knockdown shooter with tremendous vision and passing ability. Another option is fellow Spartan Deyonta Davis, who could be the first step in rebuilding the beleaguered Bulls frontcourt, once a source of so much depth, not possibly losing both Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah. The same could be said about Domantas Sabonis, who is the kind of skilled player that could excel under Hoiberg.
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