Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Rookie Look-In: Anthony Bennett

This is the first in a series of looks at the Rookie years (so far) of the 2013 NBA Draft class, what the've done well and where they need to improve in going forward. First up is top overall pick Anthony Bennett of the Cleveland Cavaliers...

Bennett's Stats*
12.8 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.3 apg, 0.2 bpg, 0.4 spg, 0.9 tpg, 1.8 fpg, .340 FG, .631 FT .216 3P

Things could not have gone worse for Bennett this season, after offseason shoulder surgery, he was out of shape and not prepared whatsoever for the NBA. However, because of organizational pride, he was put out on the court and the results were awful, starting the season 5-for-32 and not scoring in double figures until January 28th, 44 games into the season. Bennett is second to last in PER among qualified rookies with a robust 6.44 (15 is league average), and the only guy he's ahead of is an undrafted free agent. His offense has been terrible on the whole this season (.408 TS%, worst among power forwards by .028%!) and he has fouled at a high rate (6.8 fouls per 48 minutes) while turning the ball over too much (14.9 turnover ratio, 69th out of 73 power forwards). His jumpshot hasn't been falling, shooting .216% from 3 on just over one a game and just .284% on non-3 jumpshots outside the pain. Jumpshot a make up 72% of Bennett's offense, but he is converting with a .281 effective FG%. Unfortunately, he hasn't been good in the paint either, just .465%, well below league average! and part of the issue is 21% of his shots close to the basket have been blocked. By comparison, the player Bennett is most similar to in physical profile and skillset, Paul Millsap, had a .438 eFG% on jumpers and had 12% of his shots in close blocked. 
This extremely poor performance raises the question: why was he still seeing the floor? Why was he not in the D-League to get back in playing shape and into the flow of games, or at least to get his confidence back? The answer, unfortunately, was probably that the Cavaliers didn't want to be the first team to send a number 1 pick to the D-League and suffer that "embarrassment." This example of putting organizational pride above what is good for both the team and the player is another in a long line of failings by Cleveland. 
Bennett has started to play a little better of late, averaging 7.2 points and 4.8 rebounds on .442% from the floor in February. Not great, but a big improvement over the terrible performance to start the season. How can he continue to improve? Getting into optimum shape and completely recovering from surgery is the first step. Bennett is still an explosive player, but his quickness has been effected by the added weight, which detracts not only from his ability to win off the dribble, but also to play defense. The next step will be to improve his jumpshot, in college Bennett was a good shooter who improved as the season wore on, but my guess is the off-season shoulder surgery stalled that improvement and set it back as a weapon in his offensive arsenal. An full, un-injury hinderd off-season of working on getting back to where he was in college should do wonders for Bennett's offense because it will also legitimize his pump-fake. Getting his shot blocked inside 21% of the time is probably a result of inexperience, at 6-8 he may get his shot blocked more then taller players, but learning how to finish over and through length can improve with experience. Overall, his game needs polish, including his ball-handling, passing, and defense, all of which should come with time and hard work.
Bennett took a lot of heat for his poor play, some calling him the biggest draft bust ever, but judging the career of a player who has a lot of talent and was good in college based on less than a full season, especially one with mitigating factors, is ignorant, foolish, and likely to be wrong.

*as of March 4th

Note: Huge thanks to John Hollinger's stats and 82games.com, one of the best basketball websites on the internet.

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